Whilst the internet is full of advice, I believe I have found the master. I am a complete newbie and as such don't know anything. What I enjoy most about your videos is that you are an excellent teacher. What I mean by that is that you don't assume that I know. You lay it out in simple terms that I can understand. The element is understanding. You can't learn without it and that is what you do so well. Many thanks.
Good video. The sheer lack of analytical thinking is the bane of all newbie traders if you ask me. Perhaps the biggest edge one could have is just knowing how to find an edge, knowing the exact process needed to find, develop and polish an actual edge. I feel very fortunate to realize that. I've gone to great detail to explain this on a local non-english forum to wannabe traders and it's no surprise that only those who applied some sort of analytical approach managed to find an edge. At the end of the day only serious traders accomplish serious results.
I know I'm rubbish at maidens and novice races, i'm much better at 8+runner Handicaps, thank you for confirming AND reminding me what races to avoid and some to bet in. Thank you so much Peter for refocusing me.
I agree totally that markets are not efficient. We hear some prominent journalists saying that there is very little value around, but quite the opposite is true. Over the course of the day, there are any number of markets which at some time will display a value price. The real skill is finding these openings. As Peter rightly says you will in time be able to recognize a value price instantly.....but that will only come over time. There are no shortcuts to becoming a successful trader.
Every horse will bounce around in quite a wide range of prices (on average) during the lifetime of a market. So there has to be areas where each horses reach's value to different extents and poor value to different extents.
Too many people think it's a "get rich quick" scheme. When in actuality, it can easily be a "get poor quick" scheme. It's a skill that needs to be mastered over time. Some people on the forums are 1000's down. People who aren't pro's have no business trading that much money. I think you've actually given some really good information in this video, regarding how different types of races trade differently. It took me months to figure that out. :-)
Is edge the same as value? Also I don't know how to get a core strategy to start with really, so can you direct me to a resource that will provide a number of strategies that I could use to become a profitable trader (though I would only start with one of course) and also explain what to look for in the racecards to decide what horse you may be interested in trading, and then how to confirm that in the live markets? Thank you.
LOL I know what you mean about Maiden races, Peter. . .I used to think that bumper races were races where the horses were allowed to bump each other out of the way!
Hi peter, I believe I've found an edge using bet angel with automated bets. Only been using my for a month and have around a 98% strike rate with a 5%ROI. Just wondering if successful bots tend to work over a long period of time? For example, could you have a successful bit for 6 months and then all of a sudden it all goes to pot?
Excellent video, it is astonishing how many ways a strategy can be refined, isn't it? I've been improving one strategy for 20 months now and I'm sure that there are ways of squeezing a little more out of it.
I know you collect stats - lol - I want to know if historically "The market / us" is actually right on pricing ? we can never know if the price was correct. Yes the market drives the price up/down and settles on a fair price* is that 1-1 on the home team the correct price ? I hope this makes sense, If you were to look at all matches where the home team kicked off and was @1-1 odds >> historically were 50% of these matches won by the home team ? if its 60 % we/the market are undervaluing, if it 40% we are overvaluing... I hope i have not lost you : same for 1.5-1. >>>>> 2-1 >>> etc How right are we ?
Over sufficient portion sizes you find those prices are spot on. Which means they're correct (on average) when they go off. So basically the market gets more and more efficient towards post/kick off time.
There isn't anything particularly special that I do. I try something and if it doesn't work I'll often try the opposite. Just varying slightly all the parameters that I use.
Going in play is not a fault in itself. There are plenty of profit making strategies to enhance in-running trading. The key fact here is you need to integrate this into your staking and banks plan. If you trade in fear of going in play then you will lose, as you will not trade with any freedom. Most traders fear going in-play because they are putting too much of their bank at risk on any one market.
in play, there can be some good indicators of who is going to win or lose the race, talking courtsiders money at the business end of the race, is extremely difficult though.
Hi peter, can you recommend a book to read that will guide me. I have no idea how to predict the market and i don't know what information I'm looking for.
Thanks for replying. I will keep a look out for the additional info. What sort of bank roll would be considered reasonable to start out? I am doing matched odds betting at the moment to raise the capital
So if for example I notice that a build up of money in a certain way will indicate a movement in the market, how do I need to use the maths to know I have it???? I have believe i have developed a edge but using a thought process i had as a newbie trader. As there is no need for maths in this at all, would this not be classed as an edge. Sorry for questions pete but there is no one better to ask than yourself. Thanks.
It's like learning to ride a horse with the instructor mounted and the learner running alongside on foot trying to keep up and concentrate at the same time. So when it comes to a jump......!!! Sorry to seem negative, but I was never a mathematician, hate spreadsheets (because there's never any explanation of all those 'functions') and know virtually nothing about horse racing or football or.....'markets'! What on earth do I 'analyse'?
I didn't know a thing about racing but I'm now one of the biggest ever punters on racing. So I just learnt from scratch by trying something, then analysing, varying and repeating.
@@betangeltv That may be true, but you're not really a punter, you're a trader. I differentiate the two. Punters take higher risk, suffer consequently higher variance, but make a higher ROI as a result.
I know it's coincidence but this video played with a great and appropriate advert at the start. Some stock market investment or other. It gave me an idea for a video that you could do. The home trader is sitting unshaven in his dark basement in shorts and a vest, swigging coke and stuffing himself with crisps. There are wires everywhere coming out of junction boxes and he nearly chokes on crisps as he dashes from one information screen to another and bad news suddenly pops up. His frenzy culminates with his eyes bulging as the market moves sharply and as he tries to exit his trade with a surge of key bashing....the coke goes over the keyboard and everything short circuits. The punch line being....''Tired of manual trading?'' It would be great as a cartoon. I tried watching again but got a different ad. It did make me wonder where there is a serious video in there about a quiet place to work, mindset, clearing distractions, calendar planning, organised breaks, simple workspace organisation and a general professional work attitude.
Whilst the internet is full of advice, I believe I have found the master. I am a complete newbie and as such don't know anything. What I enjoy most about your videos is that you are an excellent teacher. What I mean by that is that you don't assume that I know. You lay it out in simple terms that I can understand. The element is understanding. You can't learn without it and that is what you do so well. Many thanks.
Thank you for your comment. It's much appreciated.
How r u doing with trading a year on from your comment?
Good video. The sheer lack of analytical thinking is the bane of all newbie traders if you ask me. Perhaps the biggest edge one could have is just knowing how to find an edge, knowing the exact process needed to find, develop and polish an actual edge. I feel very fortunate to realize that. I've gone to great detail to explain this on a local non-english forum to wannabe traders and it's no surprise that only those who applied some sort of analytical approach managed to find an edge. At the end of the day only serious traders accomplish serious results.
I know I'm rubbish at maidens and novice races, i'm much better at 8+runner Handicaps, thank you for confirming AND reminding me what races to avoid and some to bet in. Thank you so much Peter for refocusing me.
Maidens and novice races are amongst the high volatility races, so thats why you would be struggling there.
I agree totally that markets are not efficient. We hear some prominent journalists saying that there is very little value around, but quite the opposite is true. Over the course of the day, there are any number of markets which at some time will display a value price. The real skill is finding these openings. As Peter rightly says you will in time be able to recognize a value price instantly.....but that will only come over time. There are no shortcuts to becoming a successful trader.
Every horse will bounce around in quite a wide range of prices (on average) during the lifetime of a market. So there has to be areas where each horses reach's value to different extents and poor value to different extents.
Too many people think it's a "get rich quick" scheme. When in actuality, it can easily be a "get poor quick" scheme. It's a skill that needs to be mastered over time. Some people on the forums are 1000's down. People who aren't pro's have no business trading that much money. I think you've actually given some really good information in this video, regarding how different types of races trade differently. It took me months to figure that out. :-)
Hi Peter out of all your fantastic videos this one has been the most valuable to me personally. Thank you very much.
Is edge the same as value? Also I don't know how to get a core strategy to start with really, so can you direct me to a resource that will provide a number of strategies that I could use to become a profitable trader (though I would only start with one of course) and also explain what to look for in the racecards to decide what horse you may be interested in trading, and then how to confirm that in the live markets? Thank you.
LOL I know what you mean about Maiden races, Peter. . .I used to think that bumper races were races where the horses were allowed to bump each other out of the way!
So called because of flag start which causes horses to bump at the off :)
Hi peter, I believe I've found an edge using bet angel with automated bets. Only been using my for a month and have around a 98% strike rate with a 5%ROI. Just wondering if successful bots tend to work over a long period of time? For example, could you have a successful bit for 6 months and then all of a sudden it all goes to pot?
does your edge still work - im guessing no by your figures
If you are Trading multiple strategies on one account how can you pick out/separate your strategies results from your profit and loss?
I have more than one account, but just one account and run on different sports. But that aside you can log data using automation at different points.
Excellent video, it is astonishing how many ways a strategy can be refined, isn't it? I've been improving one strategy for 20 months now and I'm sure that there are ways of squeezing a little more out of it.
Thanks, I think people can be too static at times and not try new things. Plenty of little niches out there.
great video i use automation to bet and need to refine things and focus on niche markets thanks
I know you collect stats - lol - I want to know if historically "The market / us" is actually right on pricing ? we can never know if the price was correct. Yes the market drives the price up/down and settles on a fair price* is that 1-1 on the home team the correct price ? I hope this makes sense, If you were to look at all matches where the home team kicked off and was @1-1 odds >> historically were 50% of these matches won by the home team ? if its 60 % we/the market are undervaluing, if it 40% we are overvaluing... I hope i have not lost you : same for 1.5-1. >>>>> 2-1 >>> etc How right are we ?
Over sufficient portion sizes you find those prices are spot on. Which means they're correct (on average) when they go off. So basically the market gets more and more efficient towards post/kick off time.
Could you show us a real example of Strategy tweaking and week on week what you look at.
There isn't anything particularly special that I do. I try something and if it doesn't work I'll often try the opposite. Just varying slightly all the parameters that I use.
The going in play thing. I have to ban myself from trading in play. And yet i still make that mistake.
Going in play is not a fault in itself. There are plenty of profit making strategies to enhance in-running trading. The key fact here is you need to integrate this into your staking and banks plan. If you trade in fear of going in play then you will lose, as you will not trade with any freedom. Most traders fear going in-play because they are putting too much of their bank at risk on any one market.
in play, there can be some good indicators of who is going to win or lose the race, talking courtsiders money at the business end of the race, is extremely difficult though.
Great video. Thanks mat
Hi peter, can you recommend a book to read that will guide me. I have no idea how to predict the market and i don't know what information I'm looking for.
We are adding more content at www.betangelacademy.com over the next few months that should help you.
Thanks for replying. I will keep a look out for the additional info. What sort of bank roll would be considered reasonable to start out? I am doing matched odds betting at the moment to raise the capital
I always thought an edge had to be a mathematical thing on the market. Can anyone comment and telling me if I am barking up the wrong tree. Thanks.
I guess how you define that. You need maths to know you have an edge, but getting an edge can be done without it.
So if for example I notice that a build up of money in a certain way will indicate a movement in the market, how do I need to use the maths to know I have it????
I have believe i have developed a edge but using a thought process i had as a newbie trader. As there is no need for maths in this at all, would this not be classed as an edge.
Sorry for questions pete but there is no one better to ask than yourself.
Thanks.
It's like learning to ride a horse with the instructor mounted and the learner running alongside on foot trying to keep up and concentrate at the same time. So when it comes to a jump......!!! Sorry to seem negative, but I was never a mathematician, hate spreadsheets (because there's never any explanation of all those 'functions') and know virtually nothing about horse racing or football or.....'markets'! What on earth do I 'analyse'?
I didn't know a thing about racing but I'm now one of the biggest ever punters on racing. So I just learnt from scratch by trying something, then analysing, varying and repeating.
@@betangeltv That may be true, but you're not really a punter, you're a trader. I differentiate the two. Punters take higher risk, suffer consequently higher variance, but make a higher ROI as a result.
I know it's coincidence but this video played with a great and appropriate advert at the start. Some stock market investment or other. It gave me an idea for a video that you could do. The home trader is sitting unshaven in his dark basement in shorts and a vest, swigging coke and stuffing himself with crisps. There are wires everywhere coming out of junction boxes and he nearly chokes on crisps as he dashes from one information screen to another and bad news suddenly pops up. His frenzy culminates with his eyes bulging as the market moves sharply and as he tries to exit his trade with a surge of key bashing....the coke goes over the keyboard and everything short circuits. The punch line being....''Tired of manual trading?'' It would be great as a cartoon. I tried watching again but got a different ad.
It did make me wonder where there is a serious video in there about a quiet place to work, mindset, clearing distractions, calendar planning, organised breaks, simple workspace organisation and a general professional work attitude.