Betfair trading | The most effective way to trade | Cold trading / Trading order flow
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- Опубликовано: 3 окт 2024
- The way I trade on the Betfair betting exchange can seem very confusing to people looking in from the outside, but it's incredibly effective.
In 2017 I traded all 52 weeks and didn't have a losing week, yet I could only post a result after it happened.
Why is this? What do I do and why is it so effective?
Part of the way I profit is by trading using advanced software like Bet Angel, but the underlying reason is a lot simpler. Cold trading or trading order flow is a very effective way of profiting by trading on Betfair.
One of the best video's I've seen PW put together. Been using order flow for a few years now. For me the core elements are:
Preparation (what races do I want to trade if my core criteria is met).
Execution (only trade the facts, trade what I see not what I think).
Volume (where the opportunity arises open and close as many trades as possible)
Successful order flow trading is undoubtedly a skill, but over time and with practice it can be learnt
Agreed. I like to see it as a service Im fulfilling. Based on supply and demand. Thats all that really matters in any trading. Whether its sports or cabbages.
Thank you Peter. I attended a training course with you at Hook quite a few years ago. The cost of the course was about 300 quid and travelling and accommodation costs roughly another £150. Sadly, I left feeling I had actually understood very little of what you were imparting that day. I have learnt so much more from this video and continue to do so from all the other excellent video's you produce. The type of information you give here is just what I need. It puts what you do into context. Little snippets like you still lose on two or three races in ten. Simple advice on starting out, by just looking for favourites that shorten up or concentrating on those that drift...... I like simple and look forward to more video's of a similar nature.
ruclips.net/video/L7G0OfJUON8/видео.html - Watch this and in your mind, equate it with sport trading!
utubecomment21 ¿
This video touches on a topic which I have not seen mentioned elsewhere; the question of skill. Watching videos of good traders, demonstrates that they possess a high degree of skill, in the same way that watching Messi dribble a football does.Not many would expect to be able to develop the dribbling skills of Messi and I suspect that we all have our own individual "ceilings" when it comes to developing trading skills.
The psychology of the trader is so important.
A very good Bookmaker explained to me that he forms a market around the favourite and analysis if the horse will be backed or layed.
I took a lot from this video. I found it resonated with me. Thank you.
I am just reading "Trading in the Zone" and to sum it up in one sentence. When you enter a trade accept any thing can happen, if you are not prepared to accept this uncertainty you will struggle. The whole book in my opinion is a brilliant read, l would recommend it to anyone trying sports trading.
Thanks for video. Well explained and easy to follow. Worth listening to a few times to re-inforce the key points.
Howard Marks (his writing is great btw) would call much of this "2nd level thinking". 'you're not thinking about the form, you're thinking about the people who are thinking about the form'...and assigning chances to their varying interpretations and the ensuing distributions of price movement. Peter is a highly skilled Bayesian, as are most profitable traders, many don't know it..
Finally a video about order flow! I remember complaining why you never talk directly about it, because it's obviously the most important thing. The mere realization that "order flow is king" is an edge in itself. Even in inplay footy markets where guys like Rebelo and Psychoff brutally abuse the time decay mechanics of the markets. If I may be so bold Peter to say that IMHO your execution is not on par with your actual reading of the order flow, seems a bit too casual(maybe not casual but the right word escapes me atm) judging by your videos and results. I'm of course talking about your everyday bread and butter meetings, not about bigger meetings where you bigger results impress everyone but are ironically actually the easiest markets to scalp/trade. In my humble opinion by far the best order flow trader that I've had the pleasure of witnessing is Tomas Paul (close friend of Mr. Geek, that Tomas), the man's ability to ride the flow in difficult markets is nothing short of art.
Honestly this may be your best video yet, it contains a clear formula for newbies to follow so it will probably be very helpful to a ton of people because they don't have anywhere else to learn these things from. Nicely done, KUTGW.
Thanks, I have seen Tomas's stuff, but he doesn't seem to have done it on a very large scale, much better and bigger than others though.
Kai, how do you mean that Rebelo & Psychoff abuse time decay? What is it they do and how does order flow help in footy trading?
well reasoned stuff . the hazard of predicting market moves is clear, but can be offset by your - necessarily rapid- interpretation of real time information. I suspect many people are reluctant to do the necessary homework in preparation for trading. Very good video.
You have said something which has really resonated with me in this video because I'm fairly new to learning how to do this professionally and I have the same problem that you highlighted around 12 minutes in. I believe I have quick eyes and a statistical mind that simply over-analyses EVERYTHING I see going on at one time so then I get cloudy judgement. You always ask for feedback for future videos, if possible I'd like to know more about how you handle your internal score card. How much does the money on the second best back price affect your decision on a drift of the third favourite, you know what I mean? I'd really love to learn how you quantify a few regularly occurring things and understand how this affects your view of the market.
Hi Peter. I'd be very interested to hear your thoughts on the difference between 'genuine' money and traders money, and how you make the distinction between the two.
what was it about the 2 races at Towcester that interested you? That would help me starting out..
Many thanks, Peter!
Peter, you keep telling people that they need to put in the thought and effort and not expect A,B ,C with 25% @ 3 mins and cover with X strategies but now you've let it slip. Horses in blue and yellow on left handers on Thursdays. I'm rich. I wish you'd told me ten years ago.
I should have known never to let that slip 😂
Have been mulling over getting into trading using Betfair for some time now. But I do think the best way is small group courses and mentoring, rather than just watching videos. Such a shame that Peter is not offering any courses at the moment- apart from an "Advanced" course which seems to be by invitation only. I bet a lot try trading and lose their way....
I just checked and there are still spaces available in March, not sure why you think it's invitation only? - buytickets.at/betangelacademy
Ah- I ended up here as the only “live” course available? online.betangelacademy.com/courses/masterclass-extra will look again thanks!
Hi Peter, I recently watched this video and found it very interesting, I feel you might want to look at a more detailed narrative highlighting how order flow works in particularly with regards to the racing markets. I guess understanding when the real money hits the market is critical to this type of methodology. I think should you demonstrate how this works and how you identify when REAL backing activity is seen and how to trade that flow would be very insightful.
People are generally looking for a black and white answer but in reality they only need to just need to be able to understand when that flow can be relied upon rather than a little bit of early money or people taking out the weak prices either side of the ladder only for the real money to hit and the true colours of the market can be seen.
Best Stuart
Thanks for the comment Stuart, hope you are well.
Not a problem Peter I am good hope you are too. Best Stu @@betangeltv
it would be interesting to know what it was about those markets that prevented someone with your experience not having nan opinion
Is it possible to see the total amount of money entering the market for the first time? Back and lay, rather than just the matched turnover which obviously can be the same few quid coming in and out of the market.
You still haven't explained what order flow is...
Aftertimer has always been a buzzword that makes me chuckle, used to see that a lot on the bf forums haha.
I have some wonderful strategies that are reliant on not knowing what happens. That confuses the hell out of people because apparently, you need to have a detailed plan of what is going to happen to profit. You don't.
Ahhh. That explains to me why the number of runners can make so much difference to the market in terms of price volatility. I think I'm starting to become a good trader. My head is really in the facts and figures now. Been working on strategies for 2 years, thinking about it. :)
My best advice is stick with it and give it one's all. WIthout risking ones shirt. Never think to practise with smaller amounts is a waste of time.
What is your ROI% for your entire trading career Peter?
It's right off the scale really. Mathematically, infinity. I started with a bank of about £1k, I can't remember exactly. But I split it into two so I could lose part while experimenting. From that small bank I've compounded it to millions. But of course, I can't deploy that into the market so I only retain a small amount now to put into the markets. I just stick to earning small amounts at moderate risk.
I disagree. The most effective way to trade (horses at least) on Betfair, is to do the exact opposite of whatever I've done. I back? Lay it till the cows come home. I lay? Empty your account backing it.
It often seems as if my £50 back / lay bet is like the "trigger" for the house of cards to collapse. Imagine it's been going up and down one tick for the last hour. I come along, lay the horse with the view to drop a back bet in once matched but no, at the moment my lay matches, someone turns up with a £999,999,999 back bet and the price drops 10 ticks
Sorry - had a particularly poor day trading, rant over!
Sorry to hear you had a naff day. Generally speaking, that'll be the psychology that will be doing that trade for you.
Yes it was meant to be more tongue in cheek than it reads to be honest! But you're absolutely right. Anyway thank you for the excellent videos, keep it up!
Thanks for the video but I still don't know what 'order flow' actually means.
Please can you tell me what you are looking for in the cards that tells you that this is a race you woud be interested in trading (or not interested in)? Thank you.
16 minutes summary
Order flow works effectively according to PW
No other nuggets & still dubious about these 'traders'/marketers
Try watching the follow-up video: -
ruclips.net/video/bcJrXt5-sZM/видео.html
I know there are lots of frauds, fakers and dubious people out there but I've traded consistently for a large number of years. So if you are really interested in what I do it's all on this channel.
Great video peter
If there's only 14k or 40k or whatever traded in a market, what are you basing your opinion of what the markets going to do on? I don't understand, prices are erratic, sometimes the favourite will be supported sometimes it will drift, what are you basing your ideas on... it can't be order flow when there's very little money in the market so far
You will not get a reply to that sort of question .
Peter can I ask a question hope this makes sense with small starting bank is it better to only make trades on horses that you think will go down i.e. Backing then Laying In price rather than reverse
Well your bank would dictate that, but I never recommend it. Your mind will have a tendency to justify a decision rather than find one so I would recommend trading what you see rather than what you want to see.
Isnt this essentially just following what everybody else is doing in the market or is there more to it than that?
That's the concept, but it's a little bit deeper than that. I've noticed since I produced this video other people have tried to explain the trading the same way but it generally misinterpreted what I was trying to say, so I imagine it's easy to get confused.
@@betangeltv Well you are the expert. I know what you mean, its a good basis for something. Just most people would think that too straightforward but I find with a lot of things in life people over complicate it. Especially since most come from a gambling background. Good video.
Peter...will you teach me to trade in your Trading Headquarters? Public challenge to you!
hi, have you ever traded Darts. I was watching premier league darts tonight and there was swings in price movement. In a match between Michael Smith and Raymond van Barneveld Michael Smith was available to back at 3.05 and suddenly the price drifted to 28. big movements like this happened fairly regularly throughout the match and indeed all the other matches that were played.
Yes, I've done a fair bit on darts. Trades in a similar way to Tennis as the set up is similar.
+betangeltv is there a sport that you haven't traded. Sorry for all the questions just curious. Basketball seems a interesting option to me
Peter, you have stated in many videos that one strategy can't be applied to all markets and and conditions and that traders need to be selective with their strategies.You talk about generic results
Would not trading order flow be the best strategy to apply to ALL markets for both inexperienced and seasoned traders alike? If not, why not?
The strategy would be order flow, the tactics would be scalping etc. So you need to isolate each component to apply. Order flow is a way, rather than a thing.
@@betangeltv Makes sense, thank you
Thanks
Good luck with your travels
Please talk less and show more in practical- can learn better if you show it in the market
There are nearly fours hours of me trading on the channel with explanations of what I am doing alongside it. This is an explanation.
You can find them all grouped together at www.betangelacademy.com
I don't know how he got all the winners as all bookmakers manipulate the market to their own advantage.so he has some other way that he isn't saying.
He's using an exchange not a bookmakers.
23 People can't trade 🤣😂🤣😂
Lots of talk but never gets to the point.
Hmm, another brand new RUclips account with no content or subscriptions, leaving a negative comment. I wonder what skullduggery is going on here then? A very low tactic.
LOL @ Toaster
K