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Why I'm SELLING My CrowdStrike Stock
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- Опубликовано: 9 июн 2024
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this aged well...
For sure. He knew something we didn’t
I think you had a Chrystal ball showing July 19th 2024..
Crowdstrike still worth over $300 even after this inccident lol
Smart choice after what just happened
19th of July, 2024 arrives:
"GG well played."
Anyone else here after the Crowdstrike drama? 😂 Right call for different reasons
Cutting your winners like Google and Crowdstrike. It goes against my thesis but good luck to you. I’d rather cut my losers personally.
I been thinking of buying some crowd-strike, I have bought some alphabet.
Make sure to watch whole thing -- it's still an 11% position
@@putjesusfirst9217dca in, slowly
@@stoffelbrianfair enough
This thesis is very common in the value investment sphere, but they also say to sell if you have a better idea. There are many stocks that are cheap right now, so selling Winners for cheap Winners will always be a good idea as well.
This is interesting, specifically today 😂
This video aged like wine.
Nice video. Are you bullish on tesla? PLTR?
People please calm down! He just trimmed something that is already an oversized position because he feels valuation is getting out of hand. I don’t see what everybody’s making a fuss about. He is not cutting his flowers or whatever cliched analogies people want to use!
Because the title is why I sold CRWD... While technically true, it's just a marketing trick to get everyone riled.up
@@jeffery8928 not to mention the facepalm thumbnail
@@jeffery8928: It's all about clickbaiting, which just makes ALL such video makers less and less credible as a group, as they do that more and more.
At least for me.
Why not just have an honest title, like why he's lightening up, or better yet, why he's lightening his oversized position?
Because he cares more about clicks than credibility. Well, fine, but that won't earn my clicks for lots of videos, which quality and integrity over time, OTOH, would.
How much did you trim - what %?
I sold at $301 a share and have regretted it ever since. Sometimes you have to let your winners run. I have learned that lesson a few times.
There are tons of investing videos on what stocks to buy. Right or wrong I appreciate you taking a different approach and showing us why you chose to sell.
good job man!
This is a good thesis to hold the stock and not buy at current prices. I saw nothing that made me want to sell what i already have
After a bad quarter with disappointing growth, when the valuation meets reality, you could potentially see why.
@@nixielee The thing to remember: even if there is a BIG correction, it could still sit higher at that point than it is today. It would be a pyrric victory to claim selling out entirely now as a victory if that's the case
From a Risk Management Position Sizing point of view, trimming you position sounds good. But selling because the DCF says "earnings would have to increase by X percent to 'justify' the price seems arbitrary. Did you incorporate any technical analysis into your sell decision? For example, the weekly MACD triggered a sell signal on Mar 25th at about $379 after a long uptrend since its Feb 6th buy signal at $108.00. MACD is, of course, just one of the technical factors that can spotlight buy and sell decisions. For me, Fundamentals are great for gauging the strength of the company, but the technicals are great for gauging the strength of the stock.
Good analysis, i'm leaning towards profit taking in this name too
love your videos. always something new to learn.
Sold it just in time 😂
when do you think CRWD might be ready to start reducing its share count rather than diluting?
Not anytime soon
Shareholder meeting soon. Stock split Approval time?
I totally agree with your assessment--its valuation is exorbitant here. Great video and great deconstruction of their balance sheet 👏
nothing wrong with selling (or trimming) at the top
As long as you don't mind if/when it's NOT the top. (Not re this time or stock, but as a general principle).
I've sold oversized positions when they got too big for me, for 40 years now. But I'm a chicken, re taking too much risk in one stock. Everyone's different.
Amazing timing haha
Thank you for being brave and sticking to your process even in the face of a bullish audience in a bull market. You have a good rationale in my opinion, and I too currently have CRWD as overvalued. My exposure is minimal enough that I'm leaving it alone, but I absolutely would not be suprised if I see my long position tank in the next few years. I often toil over trimming my stocks that look overpriced. It's good to see videos of people going through the same thing and giving a detailed process to it.
I got 9,33 % of all my capital in Crowdstrike. 13,9 % in Nvidia. Even though I sold 5 times of each last year. I invested in both long before the AI hype. Anyway, I feel quite nice with these positions. I won't buy more but I won't sell either. Beth Kindig made a good case for Nvidia to reach 10 billion in valuation by 2030...
If you don't know billion from trillion, I don't want your advice.
And how well did the valuation claims for many Tesla super-bulls, for example, work out? Such bulls often seem to disregard the whole concept that the overall economy and stock market is only so big and will only grow so fast.
Stephen Mark Ryan and Warren Redlich talking QUADRILLIONS of revenue for Tesla WITH A STRAIGHT FACE a few years back are prime examples.
Seems like you've done a complete 180 since the last bear market. From anti fragile growth at any cost to cutting flowers and selling when valuation is high...
All the best.
You're correct. While focusing on the anti fragility of the BUSINESS is the most important part, if a STOCK needs everything to go just right to justify its price, then the stock itself can be fragile
@@stoffelbrian that makes sense, but it wasn't long ago, that valuation was an afterthought. People change. All good. I appreciate the transparency
@@jeffery8928ppl change when they get burned by the likes of mongodb
Appreciate the way you get us to think more deeply. Don’t have to agree with everything you say.
I love this brian. Great analysis. You HAVE to know how to manage your positions and trim your winners. Especially when theyre richly valued. Retail always fails in that aspect
Pulling up roses to make room for weeds I would say Brian.
It's a "trimming"not a "pulling up" I would argue
Or selling some of the roses to expand the garden.
Yooo I just subscribed after today
You cut MDB which worked out well
@stoffelbrian What if the market is not pricing in 30% revenue growth but it’s pricing in 20% growth over a longer period than your assumption of 10 years? This is the major problem I have with all DCF models.
Totally fair criticism
Why trim a good company ? Share count is more important than price
To each their own. Sleep number and whatnot
No, it's not. You're acting like valuation matters less than hype.
That's just TOTAL FOMO MADNESS.
You can't credibly make such flat claims without ANY relative values or sizing.
I've been waiting for you to trim Crowdstrike, it trades pretty expensive. There might only be 50% upside in the next 5 years depending on where the actual future revenue growth ends up at.
Top cybersecurity stock and cybersecurity growth will be huge. That's like selling Amazon when cloud was booming
A trailing stop may be a useful approach.
So sell in a panic when the market dips. What could go wrong?
I get iut... IF the market was sane, you made a great choice.. The market is not sanr so you won't know til you know
Good move 🙂
suggest you simplify narrative while telling numbers .. it gets a bit too much , Having simple numbers could be better ?
Looks like you made the right choice :))
The price movement short term doesn’t matter if you hold the stock for long term unless you are emotional. Plus cyber security market is a growing market.
Yh but not for cloud strike today
Why would you wanna sell stocks in a booming industry like cyber security
This video was insider-trade level of market reading.
I just saw this video after what they just did to the Internet and I guess this guy was on point from the beginning l. Smart move getting out of their atock
Hahaha, what? It just got added to the SP500
Watch the whole thing. still an 11% position
One of the most expensive stocks I have ever seen. Some crazy bubbles out there
This guy is a time traveller
Lol good call?
You look like a Van Tulleken brother
Wow you just called the future! Crowdstrike likely responsible for the massive global IT outage today. Shares down hugely this morning...
I wonder if this is existential to its leadership, likely so, but if it's an update glitch rather than a product problem then maybe after some huge punishment it can recover in time... But yeah I shan't be touching this till the dust settles. My cost basis is $110 so if it drops under that and it looks ok when dust settles I'll buy more.
Wait, what? You sold CRWD!?
What the whole thing...
Clickbait
@@jeffery8928total click bait title. I guess they need those views though LOL
Bro got out just in time
I’m jealous you can buy stocks w your retirement account. I’ve lost a lot of money not being able to.
this aged well!
haha... I am here on the day of the crash. :-)
bruh lol
LOL good for everyone who sold their stock before their worldwide bug in update today
Now he’s doing the home alone thumbnail like the other Brian. And a misleading title like he sold out.
So you sold about 25% of your position. There’s nothing wrong with taking profits.
That's about right
And pay taxes!😂
@@maltlickytexas All in tax-advantaged accounts
I could make a video titled, Why I left my wife... Only to state at the end that I had to go to work. 🤭
I put this guy above Nostradamus
you dodged a bullet
Bought CRWD at an average of $102 in Jan 2023. Sold it today too at $380. The company is in a very good shape, but I am forecasting a share price of $500-550 by end of fiscal year 2031, assuming a PE ratio of 40. A compounded annual return rate on stock appreciation of 6% is not aggressive enough for me. I love the company, but I hate the current valuation levels so I rebalanced it into S, which I think is undervalued and can appreciate by more than 6% annually, and can become a strong competitor to CRWD in the long term
Trying to estimate intrinsic values and place P/E multiples on a rapidly growing tech company that just became profitable like Crowdstrike is the stupidest thing you could do lol Go try that on a company like Walgreens you may actually make some money over the next 20 years 😂
@@themusic6808 So you are just a petty individual who insults anyone who sold their shares of CRWD? How do you tether the stock price to its fundamentals, if intrinsic values and forward PE metrics are useless to you? Please do provide some useful insights this time
@@kevinsfl9174 I’m not insulting you it’s just the wrong company to apply DCF value investing to lol If you can buy Crowdstrike at the end of 2031 for a non split adjusted 500 dollars a share all the power to you !
crwd never been low at $102, lowest stock at $139.37. dont believe people on youtube they always lie what they have.
SELL
GG
Hahahah
Nobody cares, I'm holding mine till $750.
This didn’t age well, crowd strike has eaten shit
the timing of this guy lol
I was going to buy it.. thanks God i didn't then 🤣