Explained: The Fall Of The Shilling & Its Repercussions- Wangari Muikia
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 11 сен 2024
- GUEST: Wangari Muikia- Public FinanceManagement Specialist, EGCL Institute
This Is The Situation Room, Kenya's Biggest Conversation!
Hosts: Eric Latiff, Ndu Okoh & CT Muga Producer: Ednah Ombaso Executive Producer: Tom Japanni, HSC
Tune in to Spice FM in Nairobi on 94.4 • Mombasa 87.9 • Nakuru 96.0 • Eldoret 96.7 • Nyeri 90.9 • Kisumu 102.5 • Malindi 97.7. Always LIVE on spicefm.co.ke
Spice FM © 2024
FOLLOW US ON Instagram: / spicefmke
Facebook: / spicefmke
Twitter: / spicefmke
This interview gives me a right to say that Jimmy wanjigi is the G.O.A.T
Absolutely
I'm just watching the show because she's beautiful 😍
Thats also the reason am watching. Quite sad huh...
I agree with you, only reason I clicked on the thumbnail...
😂😂😂😂
this topic was beyond her...An economist or a Financial Market analyst would have tackled this better
because she didnt blame ruto enough?
Want she is explaining is not mathematicing
I agree. She does not understand the subject well
Not quite Wangari at minute 9:15...the central bank rate is not a "return on investment" rate for local banks from the central bank. The central bank interest rate is a borrowing rate, i.e. what a nation's central bank charges to its local banks to borrow money from it, NOT the savings rate that the central bank offers to the same for keeping money with it. Banks have little incentive to keep money at the central bank beyond the mandatory/statutory daily minimum reserves required of them, so the CBK may or may not choose to incentivize banks to hold reserve excesses by offering interest on said excess reserves. The point is, whereas both the central bank lending rate and excess reserve interest rates could be monetary tools at any central bank's disposal in controlling the money in circulation, they're not synonymous rates. To demonstrate, in Kenya's case, the CBK does employ both as a matter of monetary policy, i.e. it does pay interest on banks' reserves BUT only on the amounts over and above its mandatory cash reserve rate (CRR) currently at 5.25% of the total of any local bank's domestic and foreign current deposit liabilities. That interest rate is currently at 3.98%; on the other hand, the CBK lending rate that was the subject of question/discussion is currently 12.5%.
I'm not an Economist but I was taught, in my Economics 101 class back in Campus, how the CBK leverages (as you rightly put it) the lending rate as a monetary policy to manage the inflation rate. For someone to masquerade as an Economics expert but misrepresent such a basic fact, I have to question other 'expert opinions' they purport to accurately disseminate to the public.
@@teddymurigi7064 Absolutely agree, and with so much ease also speaks to a failure of journalism because with the exception of perhaps Sam Gituku, Kenyan media allows panelists to present information unchallenged.
....ehh...you put it right.....
..she knows not what she says...
...infact muga got her from the beginning....when she didnt know the difference between fact and compassion/emotion...
...imagine she says..""imf"" has given us conditions....is there a bank that gives without conditions...??...does she know when ..how..and to what outcomes imf give loans...??.
...if this is what youth involvement means...then good luck my brodas....
This system of monetary structure is colonial Bretton woods centered and should be done away with. There should be an overhaul of the monetary and financial achitecture that reflects our economic sovereignty!!!
You go, CT 👍
Don't let her off the hook!
I think Jiminy Wanjigi put the standard so high, that it looks others are just child play. Please bring Wanjigi back 🙏
They need to bring Kwame
at least he is an economist. but kenyans prefer the populist narrative @@safari23
@@safari23oh men, Yes! Kwame is so smart on matters economy. He made Ndidi Nyoro look like a clown
Maybe you are addicted to political rhetoric. Jimmy is not an economist, he only appeals to to the naive with his Vodoo economics
For the proverb, "passion has greater consequences that facts", I think about words and how we say them matters more than what we say
ehh....siku nzuri uonekana mapema....
..vile hakuweza kujibu hiyo methali...was a clear sign hajijui wala hana fahamu anachokisema.....
Listening to this conversation it makes me feel more worried by the realization that those in the position of decision making seem like they are in trial and error mode. What is coming out is that, let the nature takes its own course.
"trial and error"
@@danielnyaga84 thanks for the correction.
exactly trial and error CBK which is very worrying with an economy you do not let things just play themselves out you make plans and execute with an objective to be reached very sad
Wangari's comprehension of economic dynamics appears to be shallow, as she struggles to articulate the notion of artificial appreciation concerning the value of a currency, exemplified by her inability to define the concept in the context of a shilling. While she may possess a rudimentary understanding of the subject matter, her failure to provide a coherent explanation suggests a lack of expertise in economic theory and principles.
This woman is DELUSIONAL-the shilling has CRUSHED and all she can think of is Horticulture to rescue it? HOGWOSH
Very true. I struggled to understand what she was saying all through the discussion
I may not be as good in economics or neither studied a thing on currencies but this woman is just shallow and doesn't say things as they are
Highly overvalued currency, with a not so true international exchange rate making the price of property and real estate more expensive than overseas with more advanced economies, roads, rails and a vibrant job market. Can anyone explain this if not for a manipulated exchange rate, that has remained largely the same for decades; an impossibility?
I think she confused the required rate of return and the bond coupon rate. The required rate of return is used to mop up excess liquidity in the economy where the central bank requires that the commercial banks keep a certain amount of deposits locked so that banks raise the interest rate as a result of raise in RRR so that people can prefer saving to spending. This then mops up the amount of money in the economy. On the other hand, the coupon rate rise makes banks invest in bonds so that they can earn more from the bonds, it is safe in terms of risk as it less risk to lend to the government that private individuals. This, hence, leads to the crowding out of the private sector since the money that would otherwise to private investor in form of loans is not only expensive but also unavailable.
EXACTLY!! she clearly wasn't prepared for the interview. But Kenyan's will surprise you with comments like "clear and straight forward" She has had better interviews before..
She was not prepared at all
@@chrispinejuma4017ehh...lets leave scientists aside......even artists dont blunder on basics...
...looks like..??...walks like...??...talks like...??....
...pls assist me get the answer as a "duck" farmer the quacking from(my ducks) could have affected my hearing...
Am surprised this is a Kikuyu economist Who can not be able to explain the contemporary situation of the shillings now and in the future.gaka ni kagege
you are a slow learner
This woman is DELUSIONAL-the shilling has CRUSHED and all she can think of is Horticulture to rescue it? HOGWOSH
Gaka ni kagege promax 😅
Truly, economics is an art n Ruto's advisors have failed to master the skills. Wow! I listened to her without blinking an eye. Well explined
....ehh...no its not an art....pls dont follow the person being interviewed...she got no idea what she is talking about...pls..
Kenya has lost its way. Ruto is just winging it.
I loved the interview. She did state the obvious. My issue is that only the people in seriously urbanized areas, like Nairobi, will understand this and be able to comment back their views.
Loving the show
Show some love....
Very pretty lady, who speaks clearly , has knowledge on the subject matter and lovely to listen to.
This woman is DELUSIONAL-the shilling has CRUSHED and all she can think of is Horticulture to rescue it? HOGWOSH
No. She is not articulate enough. She needs to bring it out clearly
I don’t think she is an economist. Her answers are vague.
Knowledge on the subject matter that’s where we draw the damn line , or maybe she’s good at written explanation
@@Antonytrivetphotographyehh.....usije ukamchukua huyu kama mke......atakuzalia watoto usiejua ni wa nani...then akuambie it is hard to explain......
She's been very elusive, as if she's holding a brief for the government, IMF, world bank... Mr Citi don't let her off that easily
She is evasive, c'd be looking for a job in imf or wb. She us hardly assertive
This topic was beyond her. Look for better economist for interview, I am very interested in this topic.
after listening to this conversation one thing is very clear Governor Njoroge understood the Economic market well hence was did his risk mitigation well to caution the shilling against the dollar and its effect on the economy.Dr Thuge has done completely the opposite and the effects are here with us.
Ongeza volume? Thuge is just pandering to the wishes of Bretton Wood Institutions.
Is the guest a subject matter expert? When the hosts shine more than the guests, utamu ya conversation inaisha.
She is so unsure of what she is saying..
This woman is DELUSIONAL-the shilling has CRUSHED and all she can think of is Horticulture to rescue it? HOGWOSH
She's a text book economy. When it comes to the practical part of it, she gets confused just like David Ndii.
Beauty and brains😍
i will never watch spice again-they bring quacks and their friends to explain things they dont understand
Read history on the law of Reflectivity and Bubble Burst, all this devaluation of Kenya Shillings is Just Business for some surveillance capitalists'. It happen in 1992, in ERM.
My all time favorite show 🔥 🔥 🔥
The fact that the only point of emphasis is on exporting horticulture amidst a free falling currency is concerning, she should come out and clearly tell us the state of the currency, allowing the shilling to float in its true value in such a tough economic time wasn't the best decision by the CBK governor, we're slowly moving from illiquidity to insolvency
In simple terms, the guest is describing 'voodoo' economics. 50% of the time economists don't know what the heck they are talking about. They use technical terms to confuse the layperson. Even the CB governor has no idea what he is doing. its trial, error and hope. Thats why the real value of a currency is the level of trust in which people put into it. Today if 80% of Kenyans, suddenly decided to 'feel' positive about their currency and economy and put in some "unpaid" productivity, the shilling will stop depreciating and start gaining against the dollar.
Our fate is in the hands of the US Federal reserve. let no one lie to you that there's anything DELIBERATE a third world, Mickey Mouse economy (with negligible industry) can do about the dollar rate.
Our only hope is that BRICS gets serious on de-dollarization, which will hurt the dollar's value, therefore propping up the shilling by mere consequence. I'm not a UDA supporter but this is not on them. Ruto's problem is too much expectations, that will inevitably fail.
Champaign economics. She is an elite and lives in a different world than the normal man. I get she can't trash the economy becauae her clients will run away
The KSh is weakening because our trade deficit is too high and foreigners are reluctant to keep funding it, especially when the Federal Funds rate is 5.33% per annum.
Highly overvalued currency, with a not so true international exchange rate making the price of property and real estate more expensive than overseas with more advanced economies, roads, rails and a vibrant job market. Can anyone explain this if not for a manipulated exchange rate, that has remained largely the same for decades; an impossibility?
@@ring-tone278 How has the exchange rate remained the same yet, the dollar used to exchange for KShs 7/- or thereabouts in the sixties while the sterling pound was exchanging for KShs 20/-?
All I can say is that Wangari is obviously an IMF apologist.
Kabisa. One cannot work in the organization that she does and especially in her position without being 'part of the system'.
Ametumwa.
Highly overvalued currency, with a not so true international exchange rate making the price of property and real estate more expensive than overseas with more advanced economies, roads, rails and a vibrant job market. Can anyone explain this if not for a manipulated exchange rate, that has remained largely the same for decades; an impossibility?
The shilling loses value when you dont create locally and don't manufacture locally. Kenya, like all Afrikan countries suffers from a lack of government investment in the people, which comes from a lack of belief in the people, which in turn comes from the leaders lack of self belief. We keep waiting for other people to create products for us as if they know what we need, then they only want us to pay for their products in their currency, making their currency in demand. If you don't produce, your currency loses value. Interest rates only exist for government to use the people to buy assets to back the foreign currency.
Woow, she explains really well, Clear and Best explanation of this that i've ever heard
Let me very much recommend a number of other guests on this program who have done an excellent job of explaining what WM is trying to paint as rosy.
And the hosts learned their lessons from those other guests.
Most noticeably are the Jimi Wanjigi interviews.
Check them out!
No need to continue watching it
This woman is DELUSIONAL-the shilling has CRUSHED and all she can think of is Horticulture to rescue it? HOGWOSH
Are you for real?
Enda ulale
Now we are at a point where Tanzania and tanzanians are mocking us mmh Tanzania 😢
There's absolutely nothing wrong with a government using monetary policies to intervene here and there when its currency is depreciating and am sure the guys at the CBK know its not wise for an economy like ours (importing one) to have a free trade. I think they can't intervene purely on IMF conditions
Reading the comments 😂😂. Poverty has made Kenyans just insane. Clapping to anything 🤣
I tell you 😂
Absolutely.
I swear
ehh...omosh one hour said that...thanks for quoting...
I love CT wisdom! Every time I see him I’m excited. He reminds me of my old good former friend-Hillary Gw’eno- unsung icon Son of Kenya and the whole of Africa.
She fails to suggest a solution as an expert is rotating on issues _Fact Central bank increasing intrest rates has an effect of mopping up currency and denies economic activity and productivity...Economics is not a gumble there are tested best practices and economic principles
Am disappointed you failed to ask about the oil deal in connection to the depreciating shilling,if actually the deal is helping in stabilizing the shilling
Shes simple and straight to the point
Excellent grasp of subject at hand.
This interview gives me a right to say... Jimmy wanjigi is a goat 🐐
i will never watch spice again-they bring quacks and their friends to explain things they dont understand
If all was working during Njoroge regime what was the need for policy change?
The guest does not Know what she is talking about-and this SHOW should be CANCELLED AND DELETED-EVERYTHING she is saying is WRONG and mediocre
Why does spice FM go and fish out their friends who have ZERO KNOWLEDGE ON Macro Economics and Bring them to LIE TO THE PUBLIC.This show should be reported for FALSE AND MISLEADING Statements spread out to the MASSES.This is BEYOND Cringe-THIS IS ECONOMIC SLANDER-She has no business talking about the shilling and these FALSE HOODS
This woman doesn't understand what she is talking about. She doesn't know what's making the shilling depreciate. Buree kabisa. Next time get someone who understands economics. Kingereza mingi tu
gorgeous and smart Wangari
Hoped for better explanation .. most was wrong 😢
No offence, am very early in the conversation and am picking lies and half truths. No offense but i would never believe what Wangari is saying. She seems she has come to shield Thugge. Am out
Come on Wangari. . . . .you're better than this.
Neither the guest nor the host did this subject matter justice. There are short-term and long-term instruments to manage inflation, none without undesirable unintended consequences, otherwise known as externalities. Monetary and Fiscal policies must be organized with delicate attention. For now, we are at a great disadvantage and we must tighten our belts further.
I swear to God I might not be an economist or have a background in finance, but she is just confusing this whole issue more and offering no solutions to any of the problems. I dont know about the rest of you guys, but she left me with more questions than answers
n spite of everything I love to hate this beautiful lady Wangari, she's such an apologist for the Govt. and too careful to be straight with the public, she suggests no solutions, with her, you can never break the stalemate. NKT! why they have not given her government spokesman is beyond me and I wanted her number, I wanted to date her, tell her how much I love her non committal energy, it would be perfect for our relationship but right at the end of the show she pulled a first and leveled with us. Its a political economy, ours is the worst and everything hangs on that not so little nugget., Its not you, it me, we should see other people. DAMN!
The discussion sounds very convoluted.
The problem as someone stated on here earlier is viewing the issue artistically. Economics is not art! To solve the currency issue Kenya needs to export more a whole lot more so as to create demand for the ksh. Anything else y’all chasing tail.
Prove that the beautiful can use their brains ❤
What is the update now that the dollar went to 140??
WASTING A WHOLE MINUTE WITH USELESS happy new year GREETINGS with Women? Move on to the topic-ITS ALREADY FEBRUARY GUYS
She doesnt understand anything
When there is less money supply deflation occurs and the value of items go down not up
Ruto's Regime from the word go during the Swearing ceremony Resorted to use Expansionary Monetary and Fiscal policies, eg Introduction of Hustler Fund , Reduction of interest rates so as to enable mama Mboga have start up business, the end result is a surplus of the shilling in the economy to thus the inflation
Anachokesha akili huyu wangari
Is there a scarcity of proficient economists in Kenya? Are there no more qualified experts than an individual unfamiliar with the CBK's lending rate to expound upon the depreciation of the shilling? She attempted to employ a significant amount of generalization, some of which were inconsistent with the prevailing facts on the ground. She consistently alluded to the horticultural industry purportedly benefiting from the depreciating shilling. However, projections for the industry indicated an anticipated increase in exports from the previous year, attributed to the global supply chains recovering after the COVID-19 pandemic. How, then, can a correlation be drawn between the depreciating shilling and the alleged gains in the industry?
Furthermore, she contends that the depreciation has rendered Kenyan exports more attractive. This assertion is far from accurate. Both the CBK and IMF reported a decline in exports last year, despite the weakening shilling, indicating a likely decrease in productivity levels within the economy.
ehh....i think they realised they were trapped..having someone in the studio who knows nothing....and they were stuck with her for the allocated time...
...i also think...they have to be more ruthless next time....to chase away such ""quacks"" from their talks....
We have a government which doesn't believe in itself.The Kenya bureau of statistics is supposed to guide our government of formulating internal as well as foreign policy,tax regime to investment factoring population with its needs & capacity for faster and efficient deliverables.
Huyu Akuna kitu amesema very shallow knowledge of the subject matter...
ehh....nawahurumia siti na wenzake walipojua huyo hajui kitu....
The loans from the previous regime are battering our economy badly, the governor won't prop up the shilling like his predecessor. The pain is on us to shoulder the repayment, interest + principle amount.
🔥💯
Ndu is giving her that eye 🤣🤣
Kenya has become a consumer country.. if you notice our ads are for foreign products , we stop selling our own products. We have our malls flooded with imported products. Instead of promoting our own to strengthen the shilling. We have foreign companies based in Kenya that pays in dollars. And converts everything ksh into dollars. China to succeed they started manufacturing producing their own.. completely stopped buying from outside. And now everyone is buying from china.
WM is clearly trying to talk around the core of the discussion which is how to pay the foreign debt.
And raising taxes again and again will NOT do the trick!
Moving around in circles… IMF here, IMF there… but you can’t explain the elephant out of the room, sorry!
Intellectual conversations.
Be passionate about the truth, consequences be damned. Huh ?
This was surely the most clearest explanation I have seen. Top guest.👍
I remember when $1 was equal to shs 7. A bottle of Pepsi was 70 cents
eish boss. thank you for your service. you must be a mau mau veteran
When was that mr....😮😮😮
😂😂😂😂@@TheTororist
@@Mm_kenyaThat was in the sixties when the sterling pound was Shs 20.
Back when working class Kenyans could afford to live a decent life while young. Must've been good times
Bring on Kwame, he will explain why this is a big deal
the facts about the depreciation are very cloudy.
Economics of a country should have leadership with direction not individuals with no sense of where one is taking the nation that is what we are seeing with KK government
Because of aaah aaah let me aaah put it this way aaah aah thee theee thee and aaah 😊😊😊
The issue with this discussion is that Kenya's economy doesn't play within this rules.
I can see why Wangari is struggling the Kenyan economy is so messed up you cannot allow currency depreciation as an intervention , alot more needs to be done to shore up the economy ... Kenya is now under IMF rule and it will end very badly , IMF has a track record
on today's episode of situation room jacaranda edition blame the government edition, AGENDA HAS REFUSED TO AGEND😂😂
The formular is not right and the timing is equally not right. Economy is not that complicated. it is only made complicated by mismanagement and lack of honesty. some people want to make a lot of money at the expense of the pain of a ballooned debt and the suffering of citizens.
Informative. Thank you Wangari
Hizi ni story za jaba
The real exchange rates is 1$=5000kshs. Kenya defaulted by selecting ruto as president. Cbk is manipulation the exchange rate
I’m struggling to understand what the lady is saying lakini manufacturers tumelemewa kabisaa
Elusive
Central banks are still imitating the Fed but forget that the traditional transmission mechnisms from cbr to monetary aggregates is very weak.
Invite Economist Ken Gichinga to the show
Quite unfortunate how such hosts come in the mislead the public.
The guest does not Know what she is talking about-and this SHOW should be CANCELLED AND DELETED-EVERYTHING she is saying is WRONG and mediocre
Exactly, she says many contradictory statements as though they are one and the same thing
Pedestrian discussion
I could not listen to the whole episode...she doesn't present herself as a subject matter expert. CT was more articulate than her and she was dancing around issues
I'll plant roses and dandelions then. Didn't know horticulture is the country's backbone.
Questions:
1. How "independent from Federal Reserve bank of America" is CBK ??
It's NOT independent, never was and never will.
2. Who exactly supplies the dollar in Kenya and the whole world??
Its not CBK and never will. Someone does it.
3. From whose whims does the CBK borrow from??
CBK is a devolved Federal Reserve bank system its defacto parent and mentor since inception.
4. Is the dollar going to return to its 100 shilling equivalent??
No. An empathic no.
5. Can you expressly pronounce those terminologies in your mother tongue?? NO.
REASON: All these are foreigner's terms with a conspired purpose, more than meets the eye, I suppose.
6. Only one way to realize the way out of this mess....
She's definitely far from being an expert on the subject
I don't think she knows what she is talking about. Did you also notice how many times she said 'I was talking to a friend of mine'.
FYI.. Janet Hellen is at the Treasury, not the Fed.
This woman is DELUSIONAL-the shilling has CRUSHED and all she can think of is Horticulture to rescue it? HOGWOSH
I swear to God this lady is confusing me more, she is explaining things in reverse,and in a very complex manner,I honestly don't get any solutions to saving the shilling it the kenyan economy.Nimechanganyikiwa zaidi coz seems like those guys on top wanabahatisha to see what works.
Which exports is this woman talking about?. She lives in the moon with Ruto.
Business everywhere is affected by low liquidity besides closures making the situation even worse
Would she take seriously her theory in school she's not tested outside the class room or believing what she wants to believe
Where is the borrowed money gone to?
Stop spreading fake news. Get your facts straight. It is aroud ₦1,400 to $1.
She's an economist but not going into the deep finance raising the questions you are asking. Too theoretical on her part....
It's not as easy as....
It's an art.....
Too simplistic without explaining how it works in other jurisdictions like USA.
Really.