Billionaire BLOWN Away By Tesla FSD v12
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0:00 Billionaire Investor BLOWN Away By Tesla’s FSD v12: How Does ANYONE Catch Up?
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In this video, some big brained investors with a combined net worth of over $10 billion, talk Tesla FSD and ask how ANYONE could catch up. They also run some numbers.
Tags: #Tesla #FSD #Robotaxi #ElonMusk #FSD #Optimus #Elon #FSD #ElonMusk #Cybertruck #Tesla #FSD #TSLA #TeslaStock #TSLA #TeslaBot #Optimus #Engineering
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As always, in this video I'm just sharing my thinking process and my reasoning. Keep using your own brain. Don't be a sheep. 🐑
I love you all,
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p.s. Share your thoughts below. I love to read the comments!
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FSDomination
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Client was whining- now I have to drive the long way home. It’s a four hour drive and I said, wish you had FSD!
She said NO! I couldn’t stand it.
Wtf?
FSD is so freaking awesome! I use it every drive now. I went from not liking FSD to now I love it and use it every drive.
I hear so much and see so much awesome stuff about FSD now 👍
You have a byd
I don't drive anymore
Why do you use FSD every drive? It is a better driver than you? Do you do something in your Tesla that you don’t want to pay attention to driving? Do you dislike driving so much? I’m curious why you use FSD.
But driving is great.
Especially in traffic.
Even after decades I still get satisfsction thinking how awsemoe I am stopping at a red light.
Then there is the sheer joy of keeping in those white lines.
😂
I had my foot operated on . My Tesla drove me 30 minutes 13 seconds home .
Zero interventions !!!
I use FSD every drive.
I hope you recover quickly internet stranger
Fascinating. Is it legal to "supervise" FSD while being not capable of actually driving?
Assuming it’s V12 ?
@@paulctxGenerally people have more than one foot so one may be good while the other not. Not so, however, with a brain - If faulty or not turned on, a brain won't work properly, it seems.
Are you 12.3.6?
It's funny they said they couldn't do this 5 years ago, yet Tesla has 2016 cars uploading tons of data and the 2016 car is running the same software and driving around with all the sensors doing useful work, as the newest car. That's an 8yr old car able to run FSD.. That is amazing!
It is the amazing vision of Elon. How could he ever know what would be required and risk all the money in hardware without having the system to run it.
Actually the vision was saved by the neural net approach.
I am not sure when this revised vision actually emerged.
Europe model 3 2019 had hardware version 2.5 which can't run FSD.
Hardware 3 included neural net circuitry able to support FSD.
@@evitoonbundit2453 Hardware 2 had nVidia Xavier chip which was designed for AI but Tesla didn't have the AI neural net at that time. The AMD systems had desktop grade GPUs which can do anything a PC can, including running neural nets but for most of its lifetime there was no neural net to run on it. I don't think the NN we have in v12 can run on the old nVidia chip though, just because it's compiled for the AMD system which is a different architecture.
They didn't have enough compute to do the volume needed until this year.
@@t3hpwninat0r The entertainment system is not used to run FSD but the FSD computer.
Those other companies, cruise and waymo, are already obsolete!
They don't realize it yet and neither does gen pop...but they will in 2 years time.
FSD will save so many lives
FSB swerved around a hog I didn’t see… it saved us from a real bad scenario.
The concept of a machine understanding what it sees comprehensively and with priority might be the greatest invention in history. The applications are literally endless
2nd best invention.
Harnessing electricity is the goat.
coincidentally I had FSD installed yesterday. Astonishing. Amazing. Jaw dropping. Been using enhanced auto pilot for the last 5.5 years. astonishing leap forward.
What *everybody* seems to forget all the time is this: Even if you don't have FSD, the FSD computer and the camera's that all Tesla's created in the last 5-6 years have, will constantly "look over your shoulder" and provide data to Tesla to improve their FSD software.
sorry can you clarify
Sure. When you drive, the computer can compare your driving with what FSD would have done if it was activated. When there is a significant difference between was you did and what FSD thinks is right, it can send the data/video to Tesla. example: You brake real hard and FSD though everything was fine, but decided half a second later that you were right...
Yes. I often think about this when I’m driving our Model 3, that I’m contributing to the Tesla hive mind and I’m very happy to be doing so! So far 16000 km of driving added to that hive mind.
FSD has saved lives already.
@@TennesseeSoundwaves
64,298
1 at least. The day after a man received his free FSD trail, had a heart attack and had FSD take him to the hospital. He posted it on X
What will all those ambulances do, and the poor lawyers?
The lawyers will always find something else to litigate. It’s the people waiting for organ transplants who we should worry about.
What will the cops do?
I was a personal injury lawyer from 1993 to 2016. I could see the advent of FSD when DARPA inaugurated the Grand Challenge back in 2004. It was a relief to do my last PI trial back in January 2016. It was totally logical to go all in on Tesla between November 2019 and August 2020 with over 70% of my investment capital raised from borrowing. Right now , I’m down over £2,000,000 from the peak and I’ve had to sell 20% of my shares to repay borrowings. All I can say is that First World Problems are so much more manageable than poverty and having to earn a living from avoidable accidents.
As far as I know, of all the “clever” lawyers out there, the only ones to adapt like this have been Warren Redlich and me.
Only a small fraction of ambulance trips are because of car crashes. People will continue to need emergency transportation. But perhaps you were just being funny.
It is likely that EMTs would be relieved to witness fewer casualties and carnage resulting from accidents.
We drivers intervened every time we thought it was not safe. Then we push the button on the steering wheel and tell Tesla why we intervened! We have had FSD for over three years now on my son’s model Y named “Skynet”
😎👍🇨🇦💯
People be like "but but Waymo!". Umm Waymo is not a consumer car, nor is it a generalized solution. Waymo can drive you around your downtown, but it won't make your vacation drive to the Rockies any easier.
Waymo is already obsolete
Only if it is geo-fenced with a human monitoring center. Waymo pays its testers. Tesla gets paid by the testers. Different business models - which do you think is best and sustainable😀
Waymo is and always will be geofenced.
Waymo isn't a deep learning model. It's hard coded trash.
The world will wake up to this FSD 12 moment at Tesla in late 2023. This marks the "beginning and the end" as Ashok Elluswamy chief Tesla AI engineer tweeted. This autonomy breakthrough marks the true beginning of the AI age led by Tesla!
Learning to drive by observation, from Jeff Bridges in the movie Starman: "Red means Stop, Green means Go, and Yellow means Go Real Fast."
That's because yellow is a crap shoot. Seriously bad engineering..
Love FSD 12
very excited for the future of FSD
A blast from the past. In the very early days of transistors and electronics, reinforced learning was called fuzzy logic.
I remember back in the mid 90s my landlord at the time purchased a Mitsubishi Galant with a fuzzy logic automatic gearbox which would tell the gearbox what gear to engage when going downhill. At the time it sounded pretty amazing, I don’t know how well it worked though or if the technology carried forward in other vehicles. I owned several later models of different makes, they didn’t have it.
Gary and SEC are clownheads, trying to mislead from AWMKPX which they can't rly make any debate with, they know they lose like they lost against XRP
I can see why crypto holders will want that
I want this coin but can't right now
Amazon really made it smart to bring even casuals easily into it
This is the final step for massive bullmarket for all coins
Unlike the classic shillfluencer talk this is definitely viable. Easy 300% for when they go public
I wonder if, in the future Optimus could download the FSD software to become a chauffeur for people with old non Tesla autos.
I would imagine so.
That's a genius idea, actually.
You don't need the optimus bot to drive the car. The car is the bot. Maybe it could be the attendant to help the passenger, but the bot doesn't need to be behind the wheel. The car is the bot.
It wouldn't have as many cameras as the car tho
@@richpalmisano1740He said 'old non Tesla' cars...
The speaker is wrong, they did not “start from scratch.” Version 12 required the previous versions to create the weighting. It was necessary effort, not wasted effort as is implied by how it is described.
Correct but it was an oversimplification made by very intelligent billionaires to help the general public understand the complex subject. I think that's an excusable simplification.
I don't know what weighting is.
One significant advantage to an end to end approach, which you should probably advertise more, is that its a black box. It might not seem like much, but if you think about it, this makes the software unhackable. You would need physical acces to the car for any malicious action. Not even employees at tesla would be able to target someone specific without changing the software of that car completely, which I assume they can't do without the owner's approval.
The keyword for today it's FSD 😂😂😂
Tesla haters are investing into reddit bots to spam about bad FSD experiences, reading those you would literally say they are describing something like the Mercedes "full self driving" crap & not Tesla FSD 😂
The media is hysterical about Elon right now because he broke their gatekeeping monopoly via X. The average Joe is eating it up, not because of X, but because this is a huge societal disruption. Many are dependent on ICE; dealerships/mechanics/oil workers are going to be displaced. Driving jobs are a huge part of the economy and they will lose their job. Plus hating billionaires has always been a populist position.
I always think back to George Hotz saying that a full e2e stack was the solution. Don't want to need a guy there labelling what's a traffic cone and what isn't.
Can't help but imagine the W.O.P.R. computer from War Games somewhere deep in Giga Texas humming along as all that data is uploaded in the middle of the night. EVERY night.
The only winning move is not to play.
2 guys one savvy investment.
From $7K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
I agree just reached my goal of $500k monthly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading
....
Please educate me, i'm willing to make consultations to improve my situation,
Adriana catherine. understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. her siignals are top notch
She's recognized as 'Mrs Catherine. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Adriana catherine
17:58 Thank you, SMR, for introducing a new word "fossick" to my vocabulary. Had to guess the spelling to use Google to find its definition. In future this 75 yo Canadian man may use it in preference to the North American "panning" when discussing the act of searching creek beds for gold.
21:45 "auto-fossick". Absolutely; gotta love it! Keep 'em coming!
Never thought to check the data uploaded on my wifi, last 30 days 495GB of FSD footage to the Tesla super computer
FSD 12 has been mind blowing! I have a video in my 21 MY LR where it squeezed thru traffic, wanted to make a right turn but waited to catch the oncoming left turning traffic!
Thanks!
Even more mind-blowing, I think Tesla can now actually create artificial reality traffic scenarios in hi-def “video” that the neural net can learn from. Accelerating the AI training. It’s getting off the charts amazing. I was starting to doubt that Tesla would ever solve FSD a year ago. I’m becoming a believer again. Especially since my Tesla is driving me almost everywhere now with few, if any, interventions. FSD is coming, folks. And it ain’t gonna be too long now.
Old Teslas will go UP in value as FSD takes the world by storm. Mark my words, a 2022 Model Y will be worth more in two years than it is now on the used market.
You can't be serious?
Why?
It’s only about 10% that right now are willing to pay for it.
The literal goal of Tesla is to make their cars cheaper.
@@oldbloke204 Semi-serious. If FSD improves exponentially and Tesla releases a ride hailing app, that two year old Model Y becomes a money-making Robotaxi. This could lead to so much revenue that Tesla can't make enough new cars to keep up with demand. In addition, old people/handicapped will flood into the market and insurance premiums will plummet. The economics of the car will be up-ended. It will depend on regulators, how quickly the public "gets it", and whether Tesla jacks up the price of FSD. The big problem I see is when FSD is so good that people stop "supervising" as they are lulled into complacency. After a month or two of zero interventions, people will start dozing off/doing work/rigging up steering wheel wigglers.
@@taylorc2542 More coulda woulda shoulda dude.
EV sales are falling and most normal people really don't care about all of this tech imo.
Seems that every time there's a new breakthrough there are ever more issues.
Go all in if you feel like it but I shall give it a hard pass thanks.
One good EMP event and the whole lot will be bricks.
Good one Steven
I want to see the mile count in June when the 30 day trial has ended for everyone.
If this was the Lord of the Rings, Elon would be Gandalf.
Dan O'Down would be Gollum. Kathaleen McCormick would be Sauron.
Brilliant. Imstead of using code made by us, the car is using US as the example of how to drive. It's "Don't do as I say, do as I do". Wow.
I hope it isn't following about 95% of human drivers, because in general they suck at driving.
"Very little of Tesla FSD distance driven is actually useful for training: Musk"
It is now the case that FSD, as driver driving, and I, as driver monitoring, are much safer than either of us individually would be. At times, much much safer. Having a system paying attention on eight views 100% of the time is amazingly comforting.
This is excellent, thanks for sharing.
I want to let you know that AWMKPX made it this year. Any better way to start a global change? Dont get me wrong I know they are not like altruists or something but they keep doing the right thing to improve the situation, power the ecomonmy and so much more. We need players like them and we can always jump in the train at good spots such as this one
This is how it SHOULD be made, mark my comment if you are procrastinating on this you'll be angry tomorrow
Really good one for 2024 and after
Better than XRP, better than ADA, better than any AI coin
Someone should analyze it, review or something...
Really smart for Amazon, stock and coin
He's a little wrong in describing the < v12 versions of fsd being trying to code for every cornercase. More it was code attempying to wrangle the inputs and outputs of different neural nets. That's what they've moved away from.
Wow just wow..
“A simpler approach is much more likely the optimal approach”
Like buying the fucking dip! Let’s Go!
lol, thats not "occams razor" ! other than that, good discussion.
Any possible competitor would be one of the Chinese companies that had a knee jerk moment when Elon open sourced his EV patent library and decided to copy Tesla whenever and however possible, or at the least try to. Little else comes to mind as possible "competition" in autonomy.
To make FSD human-like, Tesla will have to include an option for Texas drivers to disable turn signals.
Just Texas? How about all 50 states.
My guess is that they had something like 12.4 in mind from the start, but either didn't have enough compute power to pull it off, or didn't know exactly how to approach the problem until '23. Anyway, for the most part it's working out. One confusion is that the route planning appears to have suffered, and I wouldn't have expected it to have changed. The car is now willing to drive into a clearly marked wrong way entrance that in the end would not reach the destination successfully anyway. But major progress over all.
Looks like the bots are back into full mode in the comments.
It's easy to see that this is coordinated. The question is this. Is RUclips/Google participating or just allowing it?
"Fuck no" . . LMAO!
FSD doubters will have nothing to say in 12 months from now when it has improved so much that it's statistically 3x safer than human drivers. Miles and miles accumulated and NN learning exponentially.
Three times safer means that it will kill 13k people per year.
You all need to watch “sandy’s take on the tesla layoffs!” It’s awesome 👏
At this point, even if a breakthrough in AI is required for FSD to work, Tesla has the data and the compute power to train another rewrite faster than anyone.
Last video @SMR you said LLMs are now commodities. Won't the learning model of FSD go the same way. It remains a moat due to video collection I agree, but the model itself of video learning is copyable. Now it still remains a winner take most since First to market keeps building the advantage flywheel. Just like your opine on the model to debate the doubters. (TSLA is my largest position FYI)
Tesla robotaxi vs Uber - hey Steven, can you review brad and bill’s commentary on the economics of uber vs tesla robotaxi on their ep7 of the podcast? Tldr, the profit upside of tesla robo taxi will only be about double Uber’s profits due to the cost of the car, and the maintenance infrastructure of the fleet - potentially offsetting the large upside of not having to pay the driver.
Where do you agree and disagree with them?
It's 200 dollars a month
Can you quantify "butt load" in metric terms? If you nitice, technology runs at the speed of processing improvements. Pretty linesr.
Pay attention to Hyundai / Kia...they own significant stake in Boston Dynamics, and they are now going all electric vice hydraulic. The only other "auto" company that is poising themselves to take advantage of autonomy, electric mobility, and robotics!
I'm looking forward to using V12 for the first time in a couple of days. I have a 300 mile trip to Seattle. By the time I get there I hope that I'm confident enough to let it handle Seattle traffic for me.
This dude does not understand Occam’s razor.
*_"Fuck NO!"_* - made me laugh, Pottymouth. AI, humans and robots are converging, maybe into approaching Dystopia. Of course, BTW.
fsd price has to come down 10x before i would even start to consider. People pay 1000 for a program that is really their work tool. Like in the sound studio or architecture, design. This program then makes them money - is actually useful. FSD is not useful at this point, it brings in noone any money. It is not a working tool for anyone. On top of that, the program isnt ready. It needs to be babysitted, so its not "FULL"selfdrive. Its a trick to impress your girlfriend or yourself at this point. Other then that - the fsd v12 is great! i love tesla, am a small investor etc. (but the price is RIDICULOUS!)
I yearn for the day when FSD is available for my regular pick-up truck, especially when pulling a travel trailer. That will be the culmination of perfection. Driving home from Florida 1800 miles is both exhausting and hard on my accelerator foot. You can't put it into cruise control because the slightest incline and your RPM's increase killing your fuel economy.
11:33 “You talk about having sex”….
What the hell am i listening to? LOL
Ideas having sex
The quote is: "you talk about ideas having sex"; ie the combining of ideas that create new ideas, or like they said about all the pieces being in place, you couldn't have invented the iPhone sooner because all the necessary pieces weren't available yet
Proliferation through association.
SMR, pls listen to the latest Sandy outburst, sensational
Cheers from Switzerland
Thanks for your work
Occasional Self Driving.😊
"Edge" computing is a standard model for large hub/spoke architectures in software. Dell (and manufactures) have edge IOT (Internet Of Things) hardware modules (computers) that come i all size from match box to server, for installation on remote (spoke) devices to funnel filtered data to the cloud cluster (hub)
For those concerned about privacy and control, as I recall you have the right to opt out of the data reporting, unless you are paying for Tesla Insurance and need the monitoring for their algorithms.
Most interesting part was not about fsd, it was the comment that a large co like Tesla could just dump it's old model, scrap it, and replace with end to end model in the snap of the fingers. competitors can't and won't ever do that.
I’m pretty sure Tesla has been using NN for a while now, just not end to end. In fact, NN were being used to identify stop signs a few years ago.
George Hotz and Common AI has been advocating that an end to end system was the only way to succeed, and that Tesla knew this and would be the first to achieve it. Sounds like George was right.
Basics.
Tesla is reducing the number of unknowns (edge cases) while at the same time increasing the opportunity to collect (fleet size) and increasing the ability to process that reduced amount of data (compute)
.
That's a system heading for the "I'VE GOT THIS!!" moment.
.
Remember those times when you suddenly thought "I'm good at this!!"
(Not just driving)
And it became "easy" (while at the same time still improving)
In the UK, if there are street lights and no speed limit signs, the speed limit defaults to 30mph.
Then the regional government of one of the four UK countries, Wales, decided to change the default to 20mph.
How would FSD cope with such a legal change when there is almost no data?
Glad I don't live in Wales. 20 mph is absurd.
@@darylfoster7944 Apparently it rains a lot there, too.
Steven, though I agree with your FSD thesis, your tone is drunk and could blind you in the future to changes in reality.
Given the neural net circuitry in the car's Hardware 3 FSD 12 runs a lot more efficient than the CPU restricted previous FSD version.
Good points, thanks. The minimum value of the data Tesla cars is collecting is the drivers’ skills that would be relevant to insurance firms
Another post just suggested it's a "black box".
THAT'S the value in insurance terms.
.
Previously an incident might be argued over to decide fault.
It might go "knock for knock"
.
Now, the Tesla has an on board witness with 360° vision and data on speed, direction, acceleration, other vehicles, etc.
Since the system is also risk adverse and will be better at avoidance than most humans, the needle will move in terms of "who's at fault", with no opportunity to argue.
It's going to be to the benefit of Tesla vehicles.
.
Those insurers of other vehicles will be in trouble.
FSD 12 is amazing. when I had previously subscribed I didnt renew because the car genuinely messed up too much. FSD 12 still makes silly mistakes, but overall it's far better, and the moments that it nails it are astonishing at times. it's hard to see autonomy not being solved within three years. and to think we have 5.5 years till 2030..... shit is going to get fucking REAL. Will continue to accumulate shares as the vast majority of the public ignore this entirely thinking a BS strategy like Waymo has already done it.
I tought the magic happens when lightsensor data gets converted directly into an KI "immaginated" 3d world
FSD hardware concerns: cameras frequently “blocked” even on a clear sunny day. During moderate/heavy rain it becomes unavailable. How can anyone expect robo-taxis to awaken anytime soon when these issues exist?
Save your money (both the product and the shares) stick with AG1.
Great
It fits in with Musk's way of working. He wants the approach that brings exponential progress and will simply ditch approaches that aren't delivering... Ignore the sunk cost fallacy. He does it in other areas too. Even sacrificing short term performance (a small backward step in perf) to jump onto a new exponential curve.
It's why he ends up dominating every industry he gets involved with.
How do we prevent FSD from learning the bad driver habits, like running lights and stop signs?
SMR brilliant conclusion … Fuck No! 👍 Athletic green really fueling SMR’s eclectic seizure on reality!! SMR at his best!! Licensing checkmate!!!
Tesla free Full Self Driving expired. Liked it soooooo much more than not having it.....I subscribed. I didn't think I would do that. It's just that much better. Not 100% but way nicer than manual driving. I think it's safer than me driving.
Ditto. I didn’t think I’d subscribe, but missed it when it expired.
If it's safer than you driving, then you probably should give up driving.
Curious what you think about that Wayve start-up that just raised a billion dollars in funding. To me, their whole website feels like a giant ad for legacy OEMs that don't understand the underlying tech...
Why don't TV get these guys to discuss Tesla?
Just an aside here. In the video one of the individuals says that LLMs are different than FSD. This is incorrect. There are only two types of machine learning models. Traditional models like gradient boosters and neural nets. A neural net is a deep learning model. We can skip the minutia for that now. FSD and ChatGPT are deep learning models. Now, they are a different types of deep learning model but both are absolutely deep learning models. One is a large language model and one a CNN.
So that’s why they sent me a free trial 🤔
My FSD made a left turn against oncoming traffic like an old lady. Barely accelerated as a speeding car barreled down on me. Not impressed
Humanity progresses step by step, but the steps are neither pre-ordained nor visible in advance. One chip-maker introduces an improved line of microprocessors & a few years later these chips dominate in a small niche of the electronics world, and I, for example, find these new-ish microprocessors by searching manufacturers' offerings. I then design a small circuit board that does a particular measurement task much, much better than anything previous, using far less battery power than you might have expected, which helps ocean scientists to observe more in the real {deep-ocean} world, and we end up creating a new micro-niche science because suddenly we see a broader spectrum. I end up selling my idea to a larger manufacturer of oceanographic equipment who is happy to pay me a healthy per-unit royalty for ten years that improves my quality of life in my retirement. Every one wins! This kind of progress in small steps is occurring around the world every day, and our species benefits. Collectively we are wealthier, healthier, longer-lived & happier than ever before in history. Only countries like North Korea suffer as before because their dictatorship government doesn't value our freedoms to think & invent.
eyes have lids. My car has no eye lids so it can't clean it's eyes.
Biomimicry headlights.
I love Tesla I own shares and have been watching SMR from the first episode I just wish someone would acknowledge the fact that the cameras on my car get dirty and obstructed through weather and road salt.
Wonder if v12 still has problems with motorcycles.??
i resent that chat gpt got to be the name for a "grand breakthrough"...the "chat gpt moment". i think it should be called "the monkey pong moment" or "the V12 moment".
I keep hearing everyone overstating how much deterministic coding was in previous versions, I'm pretty sure these were largely neural nets too.
Yes they were but my understanding is before v12 the neural nets did the image processing and road mapping but not the actual driving input. Replacing the driving input with the neural network is significant because it made FSD end-to-end neural net (from photons in to driving output out) and it wasn't before. Tesla said v12 replaced over 300K lines of explicit C++ code.
Serious question ,
Telsa through out autopilot and trained off new data from good drivers ,
Does this actualy make there autonomous lead not as far in front as other companies can switch to the same method and go full steam .
I know Telsa had a immense data and dojo compute.
Thoughts ?
Other companies are stuck with hybrids and LIDAR. Waymo and cruise are already obsolete.
The end destination is making humans and human consciousness as a species to expand across the universe and everything that is happening is part of that goal. We are going to need to merge with AI eventually.
Real question, are Tesla's still brickng themselves once the car runs out of memory capacity?
I am in Philippines right now and FSD wouldn't work here withe almost no traffic rules driving with a horn inches apart.
FSD is not „learning“ driving rules by the rule book, it learns from „watching“ real drives. Tesla will have different AI models per region to conform to the different behaviour.
Tesla is collecting data in China. Have you _seen_ how the Chinese drive?
CRUSE financials are horrific? LOL of course.