Epic TESLA Call and STILL 7 Wall Street Analysts Play Dumb
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- Опубликовано: 24 апр 2024
- Brian White @4kpodcast (host of FutureAza on RUclips)
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Author is invested in multiple Humanoid companies and is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
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Herbert
Wall Street is blinded by the economics of the hundred year old Detroit auto based industry. This is different with Tesla. When they roll out this robotaxi network, you're going to have thousands of young entrepreneurs who see this as an opportunity to own their own fleet. The big trend right now is buying houses for Airbnb rentals. Imagine if you didn't have to buy a half million dollar house, but instead could buy a $30,000 car and have it out on the street the same day earning $100 or more per day. A single car could generate 5 to $10,000 in revenue with a payment of only $400. That's a business opportunity that will quickly be realized and Tesla will not be able to keep up with demand. People will be trying to buy them 10 at a time.
Booyah! 👊🏽
Correct. They don’t have a model because we have some legacy automotive manufacturing but newly designed manufacturing infrastructures designed and installed by Tesla for examples the current manufacturing lines, the new unbox manufacturing lines and the GigaPress innovation. Blend in the AI technologies to autonomous Full Self Drive (currently Supervised) included with Over the Air Updated. Then add in the humanoid Tesla Bot. Add in tge CyberTruck for marketing attention if nothing else.
I think Wall Street just can’t grok the synergies of Elon Musk companies /corporations for example the shared material sciences use both by SpaceX and Tesla.
Add in the create goals Elon has focused his technology teams and the willingness to make mistakes and learn from those mistakes … well Wall Street just can deal let alone grok. Obviously, there are few analysts who have more of a clue.
Then there those of us, the retail investors who believe in Tesla mission even if Elon make noice we don’t appreciate in social media.
The same analysts believed Mary barra...GM still making bolts
Wall Street rarely loses, they tend to have a better understanding than RUclipsrs
Brian White has both the biggest heart and brightest spirit. He’s also big brained and never big-headed.
Sorry for watching you here 😢 heading to FutureAZA now!
The Dream Team - you and Brian!
I am not happy with Dan Ives with him keep saying the "adult in the room", what a jerk!
The only comment to be made regarding Dan and "Rooms" is you always know when he arrives due to the "Fashion" sense.
@@rogerstarkey5390💀
Meanwhile today Ford gave a Q1 update ... they sold 20% fewer EV's ... and they lost an astonishing $132,000 on every EV they sold.
I've only seen 1 or 2 mustang mach e where I live. No one is buying these except dealerships.
To be fair to Dan Ives, Elon did show up as the adult in the room for the first time in a while. All of the last previous 5 Q calls, Jay Powell was living rent free in Elon’s head. This Q1 call was the first time Elon did not mention interest rates or the Fed.
Powell was there ("in his head"), and rightly so, because over "the last 5 Q calls" EM was formulating plans to mitigate the effect of actions the FED may or may not take this year.
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In 9-12 months from now, remember that Tesla was in a position where they *could* do that today.
Not many other companies are as well prepared.
(Almost a rerun of the "chip shortage" or "OMG, Elons' raising prices!!!" in '22?)
Portrayed as the latest in a series of "the end of Tesla" scenarios by some, both actions paid dividends a year later.
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He (and others at Tesla) see it coming, bite the bullet early and emerge stronger as others fail.
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This time they have *numerous* plans in place.
Love This Channel! Always great content and guests! 👌🏽
Ted Striker! lol. One of the first movies I saw as a kid. Assume 95% of the audience will miss that piece of obscurity!
What is interesting is that the design of the compact is a done design. Can't wait to see what this car looks like. I hope it is a timeless design like the Model S or Model 3. A 100 years from now the Model S and Model 3 will be a classic that will test the beauty of time
I can definitely see budget friendly tesla models of 3 and Y cutting back on materials, lower cost interiors, smaller cell packs etc, will bring cost savings in manufacturing.
Doing these size reduction as savings will get budget cars in the road quicker. To design a completely new vehicle would require safety testing, programming along with other infrastructure and regulation. This would only drag the release date out. Where as using an existing production model and just changing material and weight will get them approved and rolling out at a much lower cost per vehicle.
The old intro music was better
The "adult in the room" comment is getting old. Give it up.
It’s insufferable
Catch phrase Ives
What a biggot!!
He is like a parrot
Herbert.
Are you sure thise analysts are "Playing" dumb? 😉
If these analysts were any good, they will not be doing this job (where they can’t own any stock). They would be better off investing their own money. That’s the whole point. That’s why Peter lynch would call them oxymorons and Munger would call them straight dumb. They are basically know nothing accountants who can’t see beyond their noses.
Model 3 Performance has the same hood, only frontbumper and rear defuser are different. Easy to see when you switch between both models in the configurator.
How many of these analysts have begun to realize that ALL of their contacts in the ICE manufacturing and ICE parts industry are looking at no growth futures that are already shrinking? How many old friends and other industry information sources have taken early retirement? Sure, it's not the collapse of a few years from now, but who can still cling to any shreds of hope for a 'bigger, better' ICE future?
Good to see Brian again, very good understanding of production
I once was told the local creamery churned butter a little at at a time ….. the churn worked better that way!
I think most of these analysts just guess is all they do! I honestly don't think they have an idea of what they are doing.
Well in that case nether does the bulls on RUclips. They have consistently been wrong sense January 2022. Investors put their money where they se them most likely results, not in the stock that they are emotionally invested in.
@@gustavgyll3291 Well I would say they were all right that are bulls on RUclips because they were all right about Tesla success and that is EXACTLY what happened. Now guessing the rest when it will happen is impossible. It will happen and be even more successful if you are willing to wait and not worry about a few years.
The analysts aren't playing.
the form factor, industrial design, is a huge factor going forward.
Herbert 13:30 got what I have been thinking about Model 3/Y.
The opposite of the 'Osborne' effect will occur.
You could not upgrade an Osborne Mk1 to a Mk2 with an OTA software update!
A Model 3/Y can become a Robotaxi!!!
1. Elon did not behave any different on this call than any other. Why is he now 'the adult in the room'? He just says what he thinks every time.
2. Elon said that if you keep talking about Tesla and the number of units, you are missing the point. Still, you keep talking about deliveries and models.
3. Tesla vertically integrated hardware to save cost. They vertically integrated the software to enable autonomy. That is what Tesla is all about. They are putting the auto(nomy) in automobile.
4. The next big milestone is another car company implementing the Tesla software platform. When that happens, Tesla stock will take off by a factor of 10. They will be the Microsoft of automobiles, ie all automobiles will be designed to work with their software.
If say Ford licence FSD and buy all the hardware from Tesla, pay an annual fee to Tesla, split ride-share revenue etc., how are they ever going to compete with Tesla on manufacturing vehicles? They’ll be out of business overnight.
@paulmcgreevy3011
Ford makes and sells cars and trucks, Tesla licenses software. Just like HP licenses Windows, or Samsung licenses android. Car, truck etc manufacturers will license Tesla software. None of them know how to do software and it isn't easy (ask Volkswagen).
Yes, I do need the best of the best sound system. No compromise please.
Wall Street only predicts the past. Most investors are fine with 3-10% a year vs a risk reward of 50%+. That’s the way it works and we just need to learn to live with it AND most importantly, it’s a HUGE opportunity for retail investors to make money - so cherish it, don’t fight it.
Austin version Model Y real wheel drive, front rear casting, half the size of battery, gutted cheap interior and reduced overall body size (similar to BMW X1 size) , reduced overall weight, simple tire and wheels, simple suspension and voila, Model 1/2 Y and 1/2 price
I think you're both missing that the Actually Smart Summon + Banish combo (i.e., Autonomous Valet) will make Tesla the ONLY car/vehicle that anyone will want to buy. Autonomous Valet will/must come ahead of Robotaxi and be available everywhere at once.
I would like to see a T3 Mini 2-door coupe hatchback (2 or 4 seater)
Herbert, I really respect you and Jeff Lutz, watch you every day, but I think you’re hallucinating to think Tesla will make a “tweener” vehicle, a 3 or Y light. Tesla has brilliant engineers who have been stripping cost out of these cars for several years. They have built the standard range RWD, stripping beyond that are only minor parts. It’s already nicely designed, cheap, snap together plastics. Designing/building cheaper parts will increase complexity and reduce commonality. Nothing left to reduce costs by several thousand.
Yes, Herbert, I notice that across many of your videos, you mention that Tesla is doing as you said… that model y and 3 will be the in-between. I believe Tesla is indicating that they will have a smaller car, but not unboxed assembly.
Whether unboxed build or not, they are also built for service and repair of fundamentally the same assemblage of parts that get repaired piecemeal, not by the handful of a few big subassemblies. Meaning you can build the M2 either way. Build it like a Y right now, max utilization of existing lines for fast, de-risked ramp while building new unboxed lines for continuing ramp into 2026. Musk would never build a crap “tweener” vehicle. Lars stated they would bring some M2 tech back into 3 and Y as feasible, not that they would build a frog with a tail.
After thinking about it I don't really care what analysts have to say.the technology will pave it's own pathway. I'm trying to buy more stock this year so I'm hoping the price stays lower for a while longer. 🙂
I think it will be 48V, which will use components already developed with suppliers for CT and will "reduce the atoms". It may prompt them to install a new IDRA front gigacast in Shanghai, like the one used in Berlin.
The announcement of new models shouldn’t move the needle with the big Wall Street investors. They think of it as a car company and one that is way overvalued at that. This pop is orchestrated to run it up some before they all get together and short it again. The bigger the swings the bigger their profits. They don’t care about long-term.
Wall Street Analysts = ESPN Analysts. Totally clueless...
WS “analysts” are not high-level thinkers. Analysis is Level 4 on the Cognition taxonomy - 2 levels below authentic thought.
Dan Ives is now a parody of himself.
I don't use chat got. At least not yet. I'll use grok. I'm all Elon.
Don’t ever forget jealousy, envy and outright hatred towards someone who ate your lunch! Wall Street, short sellers and certainly the bears definitely fling FUD to artificially depress Tesla stock.
Please ask Dan Ives who is the adult in the room that day.
And which room?
Turn N Burn, Baby…🔥
At least one of the next generation cars will be the model three front on the re-design and a hatchback on the back. I’m guessing this will be the first model type.
I disagree.
The 3/Y "cheaper" versions will be the same shells (already designed, tested and approved, with production costs amortised) But with the new "bolt ons" of 48v, steer by wire, latest, more efficient cooling from the CT (as mentioned by Mr Munro) and other systems not currently on the existing cars, but which can be soak tested and produced in even higher volumes, thus reducing their price.
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A "hatchback Model 3" would just be a "heavier, less efficient model 3" that would encroach on the Y territory.
2024 is an extra year to buy before the liftoff 🚀
I may be wrong, but that's how I see it.
Only time will tell....
FSD not transferable. Why? There must be a reason, Elon was very short to the question. Why?! Think about it. Would be nice to hear you guys dig deep here. ❤
Maybe they're not playing.😏
Dan is the king of one liners. However, does anyone know how many TSLA shares he owns?
I saw a chart recently (I think via either Dillon or SMR?) suggesting that's a big fat ZERO stocks.
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Kinda sheds a new light?
King of cliche’
Wall st analysts job is to keep stocks low for institutional investors
Funny ass financial analysts, 😂
Grata conhecimento e vida nos liberta
they all are stuck with "Source Familiar with the matter" world!
AKA "We got zilch, so we're guessing"
and the 10K has even been released yet.
I'm a huge advocate of using what you already have to get two or three times the use, often in an unexpected way. Music to my ears hearing Elon/Tesla are doing so with existing lines. Cheaper seats (injection molded), sub $1000 motor, smaller battery pack, cheaper wheels and tyres, No paint?, cheaper carpet & liner, smaller screen all cost savings
Same bodies. (Amortized)
Same wheels. (Amortized)
Existing motors (amortized)
That's all major engineering/ cost of changed (plus time.)
Maybe "standardized" seats.
No development/ crash test cost (?)
But
*48v*
*Steer by wire*
*Standard compute*
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All systems which would incorporate components to be used in the Gen 3 platform, thus increasing quantity and reducing early cost of those vehicles.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Tesla have discussed the seats in other videos (I think it was Franz). 48v - maybe, that would require entirely re-doing every component needing power? IMHO no way they'll use existing motor when there's a sub $1000 one for model 2 (or whatever) that they can use. We'll see, good list of potential here.
It would leave too big a hole in the market to not also sell the $25k car 'with controls' in a market as big as India, where there are still too many places autonomy will not cope, and here in darkest, backwardest Europe
wish he would stop using adult in the room BS. they are more adult than he will ever be. making groundbreaking announcements again and again but theyre all a bunch of kids? stupid
Agreed. King of the clichés is this clown, Dan Ives.
What happens to Elon 58 billion paid package?
Tesla could strip out the current T3 of full autonomy tech, cameras, put a smaller screen and small instrument cluster display, strip 2 doors make it coupe like, LED strips, rear display, 2-4 speaker audio - advertise / sell as SE or Light edition BUT LOWER / half the price. Do not touch the battery size. This could be done tomorrow and the sales will pick up. The early BEV adopter has got their BEV. The rest are midds and lows tiers. Why having un-utilise capacity or produce expensive models (T3 Performance £60K in UK) while the market demands £30K tops prices. You in USA are OK with the subsidies BUT rest of the world does not have any subsidies so no point of £60K T3 performance in UK when you will sell just handful of those and million of peoples whiting for 25-30K car. Nonsense decisions.
But i have to add Brian that you were basically downplaying cars because of Robotaxi. And i see way too much arguing about what Tesla is planning.
Big mistake that i see people continue to make is argue about speculations. What I think Tesla jit a home run on was disciplined and solid and hopeful call. Look at how many solid answers were provided. On many things.
So it would be good in three weeks to get April numbers and start estimates for endcof 2nd quarter.
My problem with Dan's "Adult in the room" comment is that an adult is someone who doesn't sugar coat things and lie or shift focus. Elon was always real, and the economy is in the tank. He talked about it and told the truth. A liar or fony would say anything to hide the truth. If that's what Dan wants, GFY, is my response.
It’s just Elon talk. He’s been known to change his mind. He’s been known to change his decisions and we will just have to wait and see.
At least 3 ways to make a car cheaper: build it with fewer atoms, economies of scale, and more automation, i.e... fewer people. Tesla will use all 3 to build cheaper vehicles. A more efficient production process would be a 4th way.
Analysts have to be politicians, after all they are selling their clients i.e. not you.
So, make your own decisions based on facts and logic.
Analyst are just playing a game of musical chairs...but with stocks. Except it's last man out that loses money.
It's dishonest to include saved gas in the vehicle price when a buyer borrows money to pay for the "saved" gas. The stock is a screaming buy IMO
it's not because they specifically say so.
I drive a Tesla, I own the stock. However, I agreed that musk did what he needed to do to appease the market. He also needed to appease shareholders so he could get his compensation package. I think it’s hilarious that the two of you can’t see that.
What "he" (they) did over the last year(?) was assess the situation they might face in Q3-4 of *this* year and put measures in place to mitigate any long term effect on the company.
Remember the chip shortage?
Fast assessment/ response, laughed at by experts, but actually preemptive genius which moved them ahead of the "competition" (and btw no doubt improved their reputation with suppliers?)
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The preemptive price rises at about the same time which the same experts suggest was "Tesla in trouble"?
Only to be mirrored by others 9(?) months later just as Tesla started *reducing* prices.... When pundits then accused Tesla of "starting a price war"?
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This is more of the same.
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Let's wait 6 months when Tesla has cheaper (but still profitable) versions of current models (with some new systems inside) and the (separate) Gen 3 plan announced and moving forward.
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Yes you are obviously right! It’s clear as daylight that this was an appeasement call. Give the market exactly what it wanted to hear, move the stock fore the shearholders and get the votes he needs.
There’s so many holes in this story that I don’t know where to begin…
As if !
Dan Ives calls it like it is with constructive criticism unlike the sour grape Ross whatever his last name is.
Baby food.
Wall st is slow, as usual
I disagree with Brian. I think that the cheaper versions Tesla is talking about are modified versions of Model Y and Model 3 using some of the techniques and cost saving method they plan to introduce with Model 2 ( Model P ).
Dan Ives is a very smart man. This Tesla earnings call was not a total disaster. 🎉 I hope it comes out on time but would not bet my life on it. 2024 looks like a decline year but better to sandbag it. The economy is not very good for cars right now and also people still want a little change in the models. The small changes on the 3 were very nice. I love Y but would go with the new 3 because of the refresh.
Problem, analyst like me, don't believe Elon. Elon says a lot and delivers very little and late
Inventory went up by 2,4B, 45k vehicles/ $1.5B plus $900M in some other products. The core business faces a tough environment. Tesla needs to manufacture only 400k vehicles this quarter to draw down inventory. That’s why they are proposing to use existing lines to make model 2. But remember, COS is 36K per vehicle, so how does that make sense for a car they want to sell for under 25K?
Caution fanboys, caution.
Wow... You only missed THAT by about a mile.
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The "Inventory" is "cars on ships" .... Which will be arriving.... About now.
Since they were *due* for delivery Q1 (WITH customers) they are over and about the Q2 allocation.
That will proceed as usual.
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As someone pointed out, do you *really* think they decided on the "existing lines" strategy the night before the meeting?
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They've been working on that for months.
"Model 2"? (no such thing)
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The "Gen 3" platform will be fully "unboxed", not the "hybrid" from existing lines.
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That being the case your.. "opinion" holds no water.
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New FUD required.
(Wasn't even a good attempt)
@@rogerstarkey5390 well we’ll see.
@@rogerstarkey5390 we’ll see. There aren’t 46000 cars in transit with a 2 week delay are there? Lots of pumping going on. FSD is pretty incredible, and over time the subscription revenue will increase. But that stock increase was not justified by the results.
I like Dan Ives but his voice is GOOFY
He says ultimately as, “ullimully” in a Joisey scent.
To be honest “the blame the investor” rhetoric is getting a bit old. Tesla cyber bulls have been say that for years now. But they have been right in many things. Non of you predicted the huge fall of Tesla stock from September to now. The institutions can’t allow be wrong as you describe it.
If you went short in January 2022 until now you have been more right then wrong. Tesla stock is still down sense December 2021, that 2,5 years of down. At the same time you have Nvidia, Meta, Google and Amazon that have been great. Of course investors are moving money from Tesla to other stock. As long as teslas isn’t showing any revenue from AI and tech it’s much smarter to invest in other companies.
My god, the title made me think I would get objective analysis. More fanboys.
and why are you watching this channel? thanks troll.
Please give a warning when you are going to have Brian white on, so I know when to avoid
Herbert: PLEASE stop running your cursor along the line when you read something out - we are not children learning to read.
Economic 101, max the area under the supply curve. Strategy is always adjust the parameter to maximize revenue. Tesla did that when they built roaders and model S and use the money made to mass produce model 3. This time Tesla use the current production line to mass produce model 2 while developing the new unboxed manufacturing. Econ 101, fist principle. It's mind boggling how dumb most people are.... perhaps their hate clouded their judgement.
I don’t chat… I dance! 🩰