Why Russia Can't Afford to WIN or LOSE War in Ukraine
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- Опубликовано: 16 сен 2024
- We are officially into the third year of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. 🌍🇺🇦 This wasn't how it was supposed to go. Putin planned to storm Ukraine in February 2022 and have it under control within months, if not weeks. 🇷🇺⚔️ Thanks to a rapid international response funneling aid into Ukraine, his ambitions were thwarted. Explore the complexities of this ongoing war and its global impact in our latest video. 📹✨ #UkraineWar #Putin #GlobalPolitics #UkraineInvasion #WarAnalysis #UkraineConflict #RussiaUkraineWar #EasternEurope #MilitaryStrategy #Geopolitics #InternationalRelations #ww3 #worldwar3 #UkraineSupport #WarInUkraine #RussianInvasion #CurrentEvents #GlobalNews
#themilitaryshow
As a "youth that don't want to have children" I just wanted to point out that nobody is gonna give their sons and daughters to a state that see us as cattle.
Like most war governments, they don't expect parents to 'give' their sons and daughters. They will just TAKE them. Conscription, is what it's called.
Hello, do you live here?
yes.
Come with me, now you are in the army.
@@d.e.b.b5788by give they meant that they won't give birth to a child at all while in Russia because situation is so poor
as if western countries have good birth rates
It’s called not raising a child in the first place, :)
@@dai-belizariusz3087 birth rates are down among most developed nations. Children are too expensive
Sun Tsu already wrote centuries ago that you can only fight a war as long as you have the gold to pay for it. Long wars are always costly afairs, keep your wars short!
What about all the COMMENTS about the superpowers instigating and supports for the 💰 profitable $ makeing WAR RACKET .
In "The Art of War", Mr. Sun Tsu also said:
"It is better to win without fighting."
I believe that is what China is doing with all the flights of Chinese planes into Taiwan's Airspace and China boarding Taiwanese Ferries to Kinsman Island, acting like they are in charge. It's called "Salami Slicing" and it's how the Communists took over the former Czechoslovakia, in 1948.
Terrell says 🗣 if you have 92% of the country behind you 🤔 you can fight for as long as you want 😉 even for centuries
Russia can keep the war going indefinitely. We can't though and we are Ukraine's arms supplier. They are going to beat us.
That's why Russia planned to take Ukraine in only 4 days. It'd obviously be dumb to start a years long stalemate with no end in sight, and little benefit to begin with
China is definitely closely studying the Ukraine war and actions and reactions from the UN, EU and US
And they are probably not overly impressed!
@@kwaobenticertainly not for the russian arms they "cloned."
and sending mercs in to fight. I imagine to get training on how to counter.
The West has literally paid for chinas military. If we want to get rid of dictators and autocrats, all democracies should only trade with other democracies.
@kwaobenti I would agree that a fight where the defenders have a hand tied and restricted, until now, hope you commies like getting to know long range accuracy.
It’s important to remember GDP is not a good measure of quality of life. Being in a war increases production, but it causes much more harm than good.
GDP was literally created to assess the ability of a country to wage war. Moscow doesn't have the time it thinks it has.
Maybe
USA 😂😂😂
@@johnsch1988 Has a better quality of life than Russia, yes.
That's what Nazi Germany felt during the stages of 1943-1945.
You didn't mention the likelihood of internal political turmoil if Russia loses.
Indeed. More costly crackdowns, a tightening grip on media and politics means less trade and foreign investment. Russia is fucked for a few generations.
That is exactly why the americans do not want Ukraine to strike deep into Russia. Putin could possibly become the victim of a coup. And then what will Russia become? Chilling perspective.
I think the same could apply if Russia win - a prolonged drag on their economy because of rebuilding and security costs, sanctions and loss of labor force could lead to popular uprising, or an internal coup because of oligarch wealth evaporating.
The oligarch never had a group of advisors on plan a,b,c by the international community if the invasion was a success or failure?
Why should the west care about the turmoil in Russia?
As someone from the USA, I want to say we did not give Ukraine support "right when they needed it the most", we failed at that, and they were able, thanks to support of so many other countries and their own incredible grit and bravery, to hold on UNTIL we overcame the US Republican party and got them aid well after they most needed it. They were just good enough to hold on that our aid still made a big difference, even after such a horrible delay.
Typical warmongering behavior
@@joseignaciofloresgajardo4320 What?
@@joseignaciofloresgajardo4320???? Warmongering means you invade other countries. This at most counts as a proxy war. What kind of twisted idea is that?
@@Utopia7281 the one of an obvious russian bot troll. Just report and move on
> "It was only thanks to a rapid response from the international community - ... - that Putin didn't realize his ambitions within weeks".
Ukraine did manage to stay in the fight for more than 2 years thanks to the help from the West, true, but attributing the initial weeks and months to military aid in this way and calling it a "rapid response" is just plain false.
The only rapid response the international community could muster within the first weeks was evacuating its embassies, but it mostly remained idle within that time and just watched the invasion unfold.
russia's "Blitzkrieg" failed first with the collapse of it's elite paratrooper units sent to the Hostomel airport, and then with the overextension of the russian military columns in the north (which was a deliberate strategy by the Ukrainian command, not disclosed even to the Western allies, that allowed to capitalize on russia's inadequate logistics). Both of these were achieved pre-dominantly with Ukrainian weapons. Donated Javelins were definitely helpful, but it was Ukrainian artillery that destroyed those exposed columns queued towards Kyiv at the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
russia finished withdrawing from Kyiv at the beginning of April, while the first significant Western help - HIMARS - were delivered only at the end of June 2022.
Ukraine is endlessly grateful to its Allies for helping us survive, but taking away agency from Ukraine and pretending as if there was ever a timely response from the West at any stage of the war is really unhelpful. The fact of the matter is that the West has been too late with every single significant decision, and it still doesn't have a clear understanding of the level of catastrophe that was averted only by the resolve of the Ukrainian people. We are now in the 3rd year of drip-feeding aid, endless deliberations on every type of weaponry, immoral restrictions on the usage of the provided weapons, plain cutting of aid for months due to political squabbles - so rather than patting themselves on the back for a job well done the international community - part of it which cares about international law and human life - could instead really use some more self-awareness, because every cowardly decision on their part is paid for in blood of innocent people who want nothing more than to live freely in their own land.
Absolutely. The West has been dragging its feet from the beginning, and is still dragging its feet. Ukrainians have to show gushing gratitude for every scrap sent their way (even when they needed it yesterday), just so their "benefactors" don't think they're ungrateful. But the truth is that Ukraine has suffered immensely from the Wests tardiness and indecision and downright cowardice.
Yes, exactly
It's embarrassing how slow and inconsistent our support has been.
@@TheSaltyAdmiralmaybe it's on purpose. To get their own military strengths up.
That is a great correction of what the video indicated. Thank you. Ukraine was incredible in its early response the invasion - much more organised, smarter and more determined than the Russians expected. It was Ukraine's smarts that forced the Russian withdrawal. Kudos Ukraine!
As a Russian living in Russia, I can state that the video and the conclusions it makes are pretty accurate.
No to the war in Ukraine!
The video says that they will fuck you up if it ends, tho.
@@LedoCool1 who knows. It's screwed either way
Good luck and stay safe!
@@devinohanlon5501 thanks, this means a lot!
I hope you find the best in wherever you go in life.
3rd year? Pretty sure Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. We’re in the 10th year.
Technically yes, but Russia start an open conflict (aka special operation) on 2021.
@@PABCOM1 In 2022.
@@zhangyiping100 Thanks for correcting me.
Bit semantical, but I'll allow it 🧐
I got wind Crimea got it's independence just before they got annexed by Russia.
The solution: dont start random wars.
Tell that to Vladimir Vladimirovitch Putin.
Tell that to the CIA and "NATO".
@@CaptainCaveman1170 Because it's NATO troops marching into Russian territory huh? Oh dear Russia, their hands bent behind their backs and are forced to invade a neighboring country. How tragic, oh how they must invade a nation, bombard it, draft their own people for war, just forthe safety and preservation of Russia. Brave Russians.
@@CaptainCaveman1170 I am guessing you did not see a recent interview with Putin when he stated that NATO was not the reason why Russia started the war. If it had been, then why does Russia have so little military presence bordering the NATO countries if NATO is such a threat?
@@neilbadger4262 Putin lies and often contradicts himself. Funnily enough, when to comes to knowledge about Putin or his intentions, he himself is the least reliable source.
It's a bit of a stretch to assume that Russia would actually bother to do any rebuilding in Ukraine should they win -- lest we forget, Putin views the former Soviet states chiefly as a buffer zone against NATO, and a war-ravaged wasteland would serve that purpose just fine. I imagine Putin's plans to be more akin to mass kidnapping of the Ukranian population to work natural resource sources in the country's central, east, and arctic regions. A desolate Ukraine would, of course, wreck havoc on the world's grain supply... but to Putin, that may well be a small price to pay for a buffer zone that he can aggressively fortify in the eastern sections and turn the rest into prime ground for using tactical nukes should a ground invasion happen.
Let us not forget, no one believed Putin would actually annex Crimea. No one thought he was seriously going to invade Ukraine. We've been wrong on two counts thusfar -- three strikes and we could be out.
Interesting point of view, with some merit. But he can't occupy the country without soldiers and you can expect a robust insurgency with access to western military materiel. Also, Ukraine isn't a very adequate buffer zone by itself, being largely open country. There are some choke points that work for them - and they're in NATO countries. There is a distinct possibility that Putin will be desperate enough to keep going and maybe try to take the Baltic states.
The whole point of Ukraine as a buffer became utterly moot when Finland and Sweden joined NATO. If a war begins, NATO doesn't need to go through Ukraine, if it ever did. This entire war has been pure folly to satisfy an old despot's ego.
How is it that nobody believed he was going to invade Ukraine when the Biden administration announced it months in advance and was talking about it constantly? Do you mean nobody on Twitter?
This is an interesting take you have here. Let's not forget that Ukraine under Soviet control was the manufacturing powerhouse of the Soviet Union.
Hell, Odessa was the last city in sovereign Ukraine territory that the Germans were able to take. That is a literal fortress city.
@@Michaelw777.52 indeed that is what worrying me also. Even if he know he can not win military against nato , he could try to divide it. And especially when Trump wins. Keep his war economy going..but it stops somewhere…what after the baltics ? Poland , Germany even without the US he will not win because Europe is now also stepping up it military spendings…so trump get what he wants 2% (and more) on spending
The big difference is that you cannot choose the way you win. But you can chose and negotiate the way you lose.
That's other way around. When you loose, you don't get to decide anything, that's why it's called "loose". And of cause, the whole point of winning (any winning) is to choose the way you win
@@leonidfro8302 Not in this case. You can choose to lose today negotiating your way out or you can choose to lose in two years having exhausted all your military and economic power. War is a bloody and destructive easy exercise of releasing information. Once information is on the table, it makes no sense to continue spending resources. And the sooner you are willing to stop the war the more leverage you have to opt out losing much less.
@@eduardpertinez4767 Huh? When you loose, or more precisely you surrender, no negotiation will happen. You will be told the terms and that’s it. See wwii.
Nobody knows how this war will end. Russia cannot “loose” in general sense - even with western help Ukraine army isn’t threatening Russian government. At best, Russia will withdraw.
@@leonidfro8302 Withdrawing or surrendering are two ways of loosing. If you do it early enough in the game, like USA in Vietnam, you'll have huge expenses BUT you might even avoid having to pay the bulk of your destruction. If you keep your fight until the end, like Germany's nazis in WWII, you'll end up having nothing to negotiate with for your surrender. But you have a chance to decide when and how do you give up. On the other side, winning costs are not in your hand to decide. Because in a winning position, it is not you who will decide when everything ends. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict this is very clear. You can withdraw today and save some part of your economy and international relations. But you cannot decide to win today. If you pursue your goals until you win, you can find the west feeds Ukraine for years, until all your punch is depleted. It is not in your hands to decide what your opponent is going to do. SO you can end up "wining" this war, but becoming so weak that you really lost your place in history. It is up to others to decide, not you.
That said, I get that you need to win your argument, to feel in peace with yourself so here you have it: you win. I was wrong and you are right. Have a good day.
@@eduardpertinez4767 thats not how it works. The loosing party has the terms enforced on it. Germany in world war I was punished when it negotiated a stalemate without having a allied invasion of Germany and in world war II Germany fought until Berlin itself was captured and had the terms dictated to it. When you win Russia will be able to dictate its terms., Russia will also be able to attract western investment through lucerative investment contracts that are backed by the Russian taxpayer to rebuild Ukraine. if russia wins it will be buisness as normal and eventually the west will trade with russia.
It surely takes the cream of the crop of Russian strategic genius to put yourself unprovoked in a situation where every way out ends badly
Provoked
@@PhantomOfManyTopics sure sure ivan 🤡
@@PhantomOfManyTopics Go home, get out of Ukraine NOW & get a life, are still ORDERS & COMMANDS, in 🇷🇺 ,
@@igormatkowski5488 Ukraine will remain an untouchable THORN in the KREMLIN'S side .
@@krzychch8937 , Vlodomir's wife attended Paris Fashion Show like the celebrity that she is, while her people die on the battlefield.
You missed several important points.
1) The increase in GDP looks great until you factor in all the money being spent on weapons and war material is a 'sunk cost'. All money spent on these items is lost out of the economy permanently.
2) The only thing allowing Russia to spend money at these current levels is its pre-war national wealth fund which amounted to approx. $300bn. More than half of that has now been spent.
Trade with China and India produces a fraction of the income that trade with Europe did.
3) The financial figures look bad for Russia. The GDP spike is 'bubble' that will burst.
The stats everyone is working with are based on Rostat data.
Rostat produces 'massaged' figures by order of the Russian government. The real financial stats are likely far worse.
You made it seem as if Russia can sustain this financial status quo indefinitely.
In reality once its national fund depletes then its economy will cannibalise itself. The large rise in Russian taxes is a clue that it has already begun. Money circulates in the economy because of high pay and employment. The high taxes on people and business sucks money out of the economy and the government's coffers, then the government inevitable spends it on the war. It disappears down a drain pipe, never to return.
Using the GDP spike as a diagnostic to indicate a thriving economy is a red herring.
Russia is merely moving money around in a constant circle inside its own economy making it appear at first glance like business is thriving.
Most of money spent on the 'war economy' in Russia is being funnelled down a large financial drain pipe called 'Ukraine'.
agreed with most of what you say but they had alot more than 300b, maybe twice that
My question is, doesn’t Ukraine produce the most amount of wheat in the world? And access to natural gas, so hypothetically if Russia wins that’s what most of what Europe relies on for heating and eating. Im not sure how that factors into the economy or future economics should they win.
@@seanphurley Your right they had $600 billion....but stupidly left 300 billion in western banks in the U.S/UK/EU when they started the war.
The current plan in the U.S and EU is to seize the interest on that money and pass it to Ukraine.
Russia spends in Rubles therefore Putin will keep the money printing and because the popuation is declining inflation wont happen and he can keep the money printer going. If russia spend in USD then thats a differnt story.
@@grimstar8402Europe is world's largest exporter of agri-food products in economic terms - so it definitely has enough food to support itself
Uhm, Russia is not paying many of those death benefits to relatives of soldiers. There are even reports of Russia not paying all of their their deployed soldiers. I disagree with the claim that poorer elements of Russia are profiting from the war.
People from poorer Oblast gaining a things like washing machines, laptops, and yes... toiletes. This sad true about my ex- country. not only that- they are proud of what they have stolen. Sad true about Russia is the fact, that over 80% of Population is super primitive and stuck in their mentality in early 40's
Remember Russia even refusing to accept dead soldiers Ukraine was trying to return to thier families, calling dead foriegn & domestic troops deserters to avoid paying benefits to families.
The US spent much of its cost of WWII on pensions. Russia simply cannot afford that!
No matter how many corners they're cutting, they still have to pay out signing bonuses, or those bonuses won't attract volunteers. Those bonuses are a huge chunk of money for the poorest and most marginalized populations.
But, you're right that it's not having much of a positive impact on the urban core of Moscow.
@@zrobsobiekrzywde That is true. I am a Russian soldier and I stole 5 jars of Nutella, 6 toilets, and 3 washing machines. Like a good patriot, I gave in the microchips in the washing machines so that they can be used in rockets. The toilets, however, I sent to my family in Mukhosransk. They have never seen a toilet before.
Russia hasn't even rebuilt parts of Viipuri that were damaged in the war, so what makes anyone think they'd be remotely interested in rebuilding Ukraine should they win? They'd only rebuild the infrastructure needed for the most valuable strategic and economic assets and a few potemkin villages, but the rest would be left to rot.
this
Why would anyone assume today that Russia's oligarchy is interested in helping the common Ukrainian rebuild his life after they destroyed it, they will only spend money in places that can repay themselves in near future and the common man will be left in the ruble
@@orimoreau3138 You're right, outside Moscow they don't give a rats rear end about their own people, so for sure they're not going to lift a finger to help Ukraine.
And they will end up occupying a country that literally hates them too much now that its people would rather choose to die fighting against them than to kowtow to the Kremlin once again, causing even more problems down the line.
Ukraine was rotten long ago
I think there is a compelling argument here, but I think we may also be looking at it through a Western lens in terms of what happens if Putin wins. We really shouldn't assume that they will really care to rebuild much or invest in making Ukraine a good place for Russians (new and old) to live, I would expect them to focus on exploiting what they can, and maintaining control, everything else is likely not a big priority for them. They are much more comfortable being cruel and oppressive than we give them credit for.
I'd fear they use the conquered people in follow up wars as Russia has done for hundreds of years
Probably just loot it for natural resources the way they do Siberia. Speaking of which I am wondering if any nations are trying to support separatists in the east.
Russia already lost when Finland joined NATO. NATO expanded a lot more than russia territory grabs.
to the Narcissistic mind of Putin's Russia, Ukraine was supposed to join Russia willingly and eagerly. Instead Ukraine resisted, this counts to Putin as a most severe betrayal. Putin would not forgive Ukrainians who resisted him. No, Ukraine would not be rebuild. Ukraine would be punished, and be made an example of too.
You can look at Crimea and Mariupol. Russia improved everything
Don't forget that the occupation of Ukraine would take far greater numbers of military personnel than they currently have fighting to capture it.
In the past, Ukrainians in eastern Ukraine were considered comparatively Russia-friendly compared to Ukrainians in western Ukraine. It is still a long way to western Ukraine for Putin's henchmen and the occupation there will not be any easier, quite the opposite.
@@ettoreatalan8303 it was in the past, some people in the east awoke in 2014, in 2022 a lot of people from the east of Ukraine started openly hating Russia.
Your mistake is that you think about interests of the country, not it's leadership's. Russian politicians are insanely rich and profit from every aspect of the war, including rebuilding bills; even frozen assets deal more damage to competition than to those who decide.
Isn't the wealth of its leadership based on exports?
Yeah but the moment Putler will ask for their money, they will run to Mongolia
Was going to say the same thing. It's less about "Russia" and more about "Putin" and his cronies. Put has proved time and time again he does what he wants and he doesn't care about the Russian people. Hell he made his initial fortune through being the Cali Cartel connection to Russia. Flooding the country with heroin and cocaine.
They can only steal money if it is there to steal, they benefit the most from a good economy where they can tax and not spend the taxes on doing work. If the economy collapses it doesn't matter what percentage they steal they still lose money.
So you're saying the rich get rciher and the poor get poorer... What happened last time Russia waged a highly costly war in Europe again? It was October, and very very red....hmmmmmm
7:00 It's not 469.000 dead, but dead, wounded, missing and captured, with the wounded having the biggest share.
All those wounded create a drag on the government from pensions, health care, and lost economic benefit compared to healthy people. Knowing how well russia treats veterans, that's going to be half a million people becoming destitute and forgotten.
shhh.. Don't destroy their dream that russia is loosing
@@СтефанПушкар I don't think anyone is seriously saying that Russia is losing the war, but they most certainly aren't winning. Sure, they occupy about 20% of Ukraine, and they are taking a very small amount of territory, but that has cost them tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of lives, dozens of ships, and thousands of pieces of heavy artillery. It has also caused millions of their own people to flee the country, either to escape the increasing repression of the Putin regime, escape from being drafted to fight in Ukraine, or both. It has also caused Russia's most valuable trade relationship with the West to near completely collapse, shattered the value of the Ruble, created a ticking time bomb in their aviation industry, left them more vulnerable to terrorist attacks, invited Ukrainian military strikes on their territory, and put their economy on life support. Keep in mind, this is all in the easy stage of the conflict, the invasion and occupation, and Russia is nowhere close to beginning the difficult phase, the occupation. There is no scenario where Russia comes out of this with a real victory; even if they do manage to occupy the whole of Ukraine, they will have to begin a massive and costly occupation and rebuilding of an extremely hostile nation. If they don't immediately start a war with someone else, the wartime economy will be forced to end and the economy will risk total implosion. On top of that, relations with the West will not return to the prewar norm and will remain deeply hostile. The absolute best thing for Russia would be if they were to withdraw from Ukraine; sure it would cause chaos, but the alternative is either an endless war in Ukraine, which didn't work out well the last time Russia tried it (see the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan), or a society on the brink of collapse that has to fight a Cold War with the West, which also didn't work out well for Russia the last time. And you know what they say about the definition of insanity.
@@СтефанПушкар losing not loosing...sums up your education and mental ability
How do the know how many died?
Im no economist but Russian corruption and individuals pocketing money certainly plays a role. Especially if they are spending that money outside of the fading Russia. China has an advancing financial economy but China is entirely reliant on the same Countries that have shunned Russia. A reliance on China is a terrible idea considering China is not reliant on Russia. You need a Global trade commodity and the Gas station business wont fix that problem.
China is eying Russia as a vassal state. They also have a not-so-subtle desire to regain Outer Manchuria.
China wont mind because at this rate russian market will pretty much belong to them.
Due to sanctions and the ever dropping value of the ruble they are pretty much forced to convert whatever foreign money they got left, and they only really have chinese money left, meanwhile they have more and more difficulty raising money for the next steps of the war economy so they'll have to start truly stealing it wherever it is (notably social stuff).
China can and probably will keep Russia out of the economic implosion, but it def wont be for the best interest of Russia hell even the best interests of its Oligarchs.
Sides Chinese economy may rely on the West too.... but our economy also relies on China still despite the changing trend (side for maybe the US but unsure even there) whereas Russia well side from Gaz and natural ressources they are... not really irreplaceable
Thanks for the analysis, but for the record, Ukraine stopped Russia in the early months without Western aid.
Trash
Correct. And this gave the west the confidence to give plenty of aid to Ukraine, knowing it would be put to good use.
Nonsense, goodbye 77 Brigade...
^^77 Brigade BOT ALERT^^
This is true. Slava the heroes!
May the Netherlands (my country) keep supplying them. During and after the war.
Just a small pointer towards historical precedent:
Germanys GDP was growing through all of WW2 and only crashed when the fighting was already happening on their own territory. And unemployment was basically 0.
So I'd be a little bit careful with those numbers
Yes, but then, Nazi-Germany had all that massive territory to exploit...
And German civilians had the hardest time getting essentials, at the start of the occupation. During the war there were rations. But those were generous compared to after the war.
Sanctions have been more affective than is being reported. Russia's current war economy is being paid with national savings and increased taxes. This will drain the economy of resources, leading to a deptession.
The Putin regime also fills the gap left by Western sanctions with money from its war chest, the “National Welfare Fund”. There is still money in this fund, but it won't be like this forever.
And Russia shooting in its own foot. Beside the 500k dead soldiers there is another big number. 1 Million Russians left, mostly Men between 25 and 40 and mostly the well educated ones since 2022. They are rebuilding their life outside Russia.
And this numbers have an impact: Over 50k-60k jobs are without workers in the Oil Industry, the second best paying sector now as military is spending more.
Over 100k jobs are open in the IT-Industrie mostly because they left the country.
Technicians, Ultility Workers etc. are going into the Oil Industry and still there are not enough workers. Everywhere else it's worse.
Thanks to some idiotic recruiters most countries now warn their population to go to russia to work there, as most are thrown into the frontlines. Russia is not short of 0.5M Workers but 1.5M Workers. Which resembles around 2% of Russias Workforce (around 95 Millions of the Population was in working age in 2020 in 2024 it would have been only 90Millions). Thats the reason why Teenagers are now allowed to work in Factories.
Taxes haven't risen up that much tbh. But the prices did and they're rising each day
bla bla
You seriously just make stuff up on the internet huh 🙄
I think that Putin took a wrong turn already years ago. Domestically and externally. There won't be a happy ending for Russia. But Putin can still cause a lot of mischief on his road to doom.
Then there will be no happy ending for anybody . Ukriane lost from migration to other countrys like 20 or 30 % of population , ukriane lost in war 550 000 ukrainians ....while Russia much less ... for 1 russian soldiers 7 ukrianians die ...... Ukraine is taking men from streets , and sending them to front without training , or with 15 days training , NATO is training ukrianians bad , they dont know how to fight in such war like this , in such conditions
Everything was fine until NATO started encircling Russia. Ukraine was the red line and they crossed it with their puppet comedian "leader". Putin has a duty to protect his people from being encircled by enemy forces, and he is fulfilling his duty. People forget that the US did not allow missiles in Cuba for the same reason, and the US would absolutely invade Canada and Mexico if it was necessary to prevent enemy bases and missiles there. Everyone holds Putin to a different standard, but no one remembers how the US simply "took" Hawaii because it made sense to have it as a shield.
The way it's heading nobody is going to get away with it, it's WW3 in all but name.
@@marek316😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@alel.8248 Truth is sometimes hard
Russia bit off more than it can chew with this one
Putin could not have conceived how incompetent the Russia army could be. (But, then who could?)
@@carlflaherty2215 Finnish reservist silently whistleing on the backround😂😂😂
@@ospehu1😊😊😊
And are now choking on it!
@@carlflaherty2215 U think? Advacing on all fronts now. 😊
Russias W machine, though propping up the GDP, isn't making money. Its a bad investment. At some point , the money will run out.
Russian "W machine" produces a lot of weapons and vehicles, which, after this war, will be in very high demand by weaker states, that want to oppose the West in general. These weapons will be bought either as deterrent against "bombing as a door to peace and democracy", or for direct action. It is, actually, a rather big market, and as such it is a good investment.
@@Merrorh Most countries aren't in the market for what has been proven to be 3rd rate or worse weapons unless they have no other choice. Most of those that can't buy western weapons will be looking to buy chinese for instance. Further Russia will be hard put to just replenish its own stores of weapons, with an industry currently running overtime it is wearing it down fast.
@@vrenak Stores will be replenished - this is simply another, inner market. And, even if anyone would agree on a question of quality, there are not that many sellers on a 21st century weapon market. One will not look for western weapon to thwart western influence, and China will not supply everyone. Finally, most chinese weapons are a derivative of Soviet ones - so, clients can buy from both without doubling a supply/ammo chain complexity.
@@Merrorh China isn't the only other,I just mentioned one, and gone are the days where China just copied Russia, long gone. Chinese may not be up to western standards, but still better than Russian, and other countries are also better than Russian, so their main customers will be those that cannot buy others. Russia has shown that few of their weapons are up to scratch, it's mainly some missiles and small arms that are still worthwhile for them to procure, IFV, tanks, aircraft are only for the desperate buyer.
I think you are wrong. There are somewhat comparable number of russian and ukrainian troops in Ukraine right now - more of a latter, actually. Russian weapons, at the very least, is good enough to stalemate combined western help. It is being tested by war right now, unlike Chinese weapons, and as such is expendable - like long-range drones, optimized - like long-range x-101 rockets with currently doubled payloads, or old bombs with new "wings" - and reliable, aka "mangal" tanks. Weapons without such qualities are being dropped out of production plans, like what has happened to Armata's. Hence - after the war there will be buyers, because they will want more for less money, too. And as such, original thesis of Russian weapon industry being a bad investment is wrong.
Say the name: THE BALTIC STATES STARTED THE SUPPORT TO UKRAINE. We were first!
Stay strong, and stay ready. Whether Putin wins or loses in Ukraine, the Baltics are high on the list for where he's likely to attack next.
First, yet absolutely irrelevant. You don't even have an air force. 😒
@@nikodzepina2876 and how well is the russian airforce doing in the war?
@@miles2142 receiving 3k glide bombs per month is not so pleasant
@@nikodzepina2876 - irrelevant? It is thanks to us that almost all European NATO members are strong supporters of Ukraine. Not only were we first, we have made a historic difference as some countries were reluctant to support Ukraine in the beginning (including the US).
We don't have an air force? No, but we do have permanently stationed fighter jets from other NATO countries, so we are covered also in this area. And we do have the ambition to built out our defense step by step until we can protect ourselves and better participate in the alliance. This is why we (in my case: Estonia) participated both in peace keeping in Afghanistan and in French operations in Africa: we wanted to have soldiers with military fight experience. That was our priority as first step of this policy.
Statistics do not say it all. Many small streams create a big river! That is the principle of NATO.
Russia is in a war time economy which mean the government is paying for stuff to be made for the war and that is why their gdp is huge
Who in the hell would want to migrate to Russia ! 😅🤣😂
People from North Korea. 😅
People from the former soviet republics like uzbekistan and kazakhstan.
@@iii7702 Yup! Unless they have special skills, it's unlikely that other countries would take them. However, they speak Russian, so that's their favoured destination.
me. putin is far better than any other insane leader in the WEST
Armenians, Georgians, Azerbaijanis, because that's their only choice
A war time economy is similar to the Chinese housing bubble.
China wastes a bunch of wealth on building housing complexes that will crumble long before there is any demand for them.
It made the GDP peak, but it is ultimately trough the destruction of wealth.
Russia creating something and then destroying it contributes to the GDP, but it is nothing but a burden.
Russia needs to print money and slowly tank the economy to produce this much.
It is the equivalent of me taking a loan that I can't can't pay back using my income, and then consume like a millionaire.
My contribution to the GDP makes me look like I am filthy rich.
China has an even bigger problem with its demographic....it is stated and those are the best figures China will loose half of its population by 2100...think of it half the population..(because of the policies it did have , 1 child and so on, and no more children are born..because it is like the west work pleasure and low birth rate)
Exactly. Spending money on unproductive projects make GDP figures look good. But the debt needs to be repaid sooner or later.
@@zhangyiping100 Russia has next to no debt in case you didn't know
yep joe bloggs says that too... modern media need to explain the ramifications of a war economy
@@engliterra355 Two items. One, no one lends to Russia. Two, money has to come from somewhere.
While your points are valid here, there are a couple points about Russian casualty stats that are a bit misleading: 1) Ukrainian estimates of RF casualties are 100-150k higher than other estimates, 2) The number of casualties includes killed and WOUNDED. Wounded who can recover and have children.
Ukraine lost more soldiers than russian , theyre taking men from streets , and sending them to front without any real training , or without any training .... 550 000 dead ukrianians .
I believe the solution would be to get rid of Putin as a person. Russia could then immediately claim to have been a victim of a ruthless dictator. They could stop the war (claiming that the driving force is gone), and then ask the West to help them rebuild Ukraine and their own country, which would shield them from China.
Mmm, sweet dreams
@@andreisamuilik4913 I hope you are in ruzzia now, and enjoying it?
It can’t just be Putin, a large number of higher ups are also going out if that’ll happen
This will definitely not happen, because it would mean the betrayal of soldiers and the loss of their own political standing, as it happened with Ukraine.
@@user-zh5bj8rk7h sure, ivan
Russia will end up paying no matter what. What a stupid move on Putin s part.
AGREED!
Russia got itself into a situation impossible to solve, whatever they do and probably whatever happens, they lose.
Dream world😅😅😅
Russia will definitely not lose, just wishful thinking.
Russia lost on day 3. The only remaining question is just how bad it's going to be for them. Russia has already scuppered their dreams of ever becoming a world power and they will likely go on to lose Outer Manchuria (including Vladivostok) if they don't change tack very soon.
@@alexhajnal107 I don't agree at all the West has totally underestimated Russia.
Russia's not even started the real confrontation yet. Its a dangerous situation the way the West keeps propping up Ukraine instead of negotiating for a peaceful settlement. Nobody with any sense wants war except Biden and Co, and the UK follow blindly. The sanctions imposed on Russia have harmed the West not Russia.
Even if Putin was not in power there are more hardened men than him. A lot of the Russian people think Putin is too soft on the West. Like it or not Russia will not lose.
@@citzeneyethey litteraly can't win
Did you seriously take the number of casualties as the number of deaths?? Thats wayy wrong. Only 10% of the casualties are fatalities if I know correctly.
В нормальних країнах це справді можливо, хоча є різні фактори, наприклад в Україні 300 тисяч 300 і 100 тисяч 200 . на росії близько 200-300 тисяч 200 ( щодня 1 тисяча втрат і хоч багато 300 але з ситуацією яка виникла через дрони не рідко 300 самі себе добивають через те , що їм зазделегідь кажуть про те , що евакуації не буде ) тому статистика втрат росте. І їх загальна кількість 570тисяч ( чи десь так, не пам'ятаю) і як мінімум 50% 200 через те , що їм не потрібні 300 каліки яким ще до кінця життя пенсії платити , надто важко для економіки) Мій рівень англійської ще не достатній аби міг вільно висловлювати свою думку, томи ютуб переклад в допомогу:/
plus the brain drain from russia ,most educated people want to leave russia and live in a safer place
Here for year I always felt Putin was the smartest strategist leader on Earth and now I think he lost that title with this dumb ass decision to invade Ukraine.
I never thought that! I always took him for a sly, murderous demagogue who was able to fool a lot of Westerners about what he was up to for way too long.
He never appeared smart to me, more like delusional and ruthless.
That is the fate of all dictators, at some point people around you start to tell you only what you want to hear.
What he know you dont
He always had somone else to blame but now the only one to blame is putin himself
I really doubt Russia would sign a treaty accepting guilt and a need to pay Ukraine. "Winning" and "Losing" can mean a lot of different things in a war, and it's much more likely Russia "loosing" would just mean their troops not occupying Ukraine anymore. It's much more likely to have to pay to rebuild Ukraine if it "wins" than if it "looses". I also find it strange you think sanctions on Russia would be less severe if it "won" than if it "lost". If anything, I would expect the exact opposite, at least for a few years.
China is studying this war against Russia & how they react when it comes to Taiwan.
They will lose if they are actually dumb enough to invade Russia or Taiwan. If Russias army was bad wait till you see Chinas.
The answer for China is simple
"Do not do it"
The two big benefits for China are 1) Studying Ukraine as a proxy for a potential invasion of Taiwan and 2) Weakening one of their major competitors; the longer the war in Ukraine continues the weaker Russia becomes. China's desired goal is to be the dominant player in the Asia-Pacific region. That includes having Russia be a vassal state.
@@alexhajnal107 Hopefully they come to the conclusion that fighting against the West is a bad idea
@@alexhajnal107but you have to remember china's growth is slowing and may even stop and when not if but when it happens china will either declare martial law or collapse
Russia cannot afford to lose but that is just what they are going to do. The consequences are their problem.
I'm pretty sure those "consequences" are going to be made into the ukranian's people problem too, this video is a lot more worrying than most people realize, since it's saying that russia has no incentives for peace, that's something that can only get "solved" by postponing it with more war, bombs, towns invaded, people displaced, etc.
In your dream.
Wake Uo.
No. Keep pushing and the world will loose.
In your dream.
wake up
Russia has already lost. Ukraine broke their country.
I think you’re wrong in thinking that it’ll cost Russia that much money to rebuild Ukraine to its prewar status if it wins. When we look at Ukrainian areas it has already conquered or Russian areas outside of Moscow and Saint Petersburg I think we can conclude that Russia won’t invest very heavily in rebuilding Ukraine if it wins but will largely just leave it as is.
I doubt it,Donbass is the richest zone of Ukraine,it will be rebuild
Thank you for this deep and well thought-out analysis. The best I have seen. However, one glaring inaccuracy was the suggestion that the it was Western intervention in the early weeks that stopped the Russians. Those early successes against the Russians were purely due to Ukraine's organisation, smarts and determination.
PS I really like your presentation that refrains from hype and over-emotive language. So many other commentators are tedious to listen to because of their over-hyped and narrow view. Thank you.
China's increasing leverage over Russia will also increase China's ambitions to get back the territories of Northern Mandchuria which they lost to Russia in 1860. This is a vast territory of the size of France and Germany combined, including Russia's Pacific port of Wladivostok (or Haishen-wei, as the Chinese calling it until today).
I have been speculating on Manchuria for months, now. I have no doubt that China is looking very closely at it. Also, China, particularly the Beijing region, requires more & more water. Lake Baikal would be a tremendous asset for China.
I'm rather surprised that Russia doesn't seem to have realized that yet. Or at least not taken the possibility seriously.
China seems to be waiting for the west to run out of money or weapons before it brings out its ambitions. Although, in my opinion, China's intelligence agency has been working overtime replicating identities and creating false operatives that then emmigrate to other countries they want to control. It's a sit back and watch type of play. Unless, if course, I have it backwards.
China wants some of Russia's arctic coast
@13ased_American and that's a dumb thing to say since TSMC is a company. That's like saying Slava Burger King.
@@DriveCarToBar slava Burger King.
Yes, before you ask, I am indeed from burgerland.
They have their eyes on all of Russia's east including Outer Manchuria and the Arctic.
One of the classic blunders. Never start a land war in Asia.
It's not in Asia?
At the rate Russia's going they won't have the resources to fight the actual (future) Asian land war, namely Outer Manchuria.
The way things are going Russia will be helpless when things get contentious in Outer Manchuria.
Dang! The trolls are crawling out of their holes!
Z
They can't remain in their holes forever, you know? With reality of Russia situation pouring in, they either come out and rant or choke on it.
Ooooohhhhj my gawd! Everyone, I mean EVERYONE I disagree with is a troll bot ! Wahh! 😮😮😮
Source??!!
@@justadildeau
Or a tankie.
Imagine thinking Russia was ever communist, a communist nation is an oxymoron.
If they lose:
- Has to pay for Ukraine's recovery
- Sanctions won't stop
- Lose thousands of young people to the war
If they win:
- Has to pay for Ukraine's recovery
- Sanctions won't stop
- Lose thousands of young people to the war
Ukraine is a country, Taiwan is a country!
Actual count of people living in ruZia has been considered to be about 20 million less, compared to official figures, already before the war. The main reasons are:
- people move to another country for good, but never tell the state about it
- especially in rural areas (which is most of ruZia), people die and don't get reported as dead for decades - relatives cash in their pension, and statistically the general life expectancy seems higher (so the government likes it too)
And were talking about Russia. They just lie...
Russia: Hey, we have western assets we can use if our money goes to Ukraine!!!
USA: Nope, we just convicted his ass on 34 felonies. He ain't worth much these days.
Russian long term covert planning - Trump is a Russian sleeper. A couple of good policies by Trump mixed in with a couple of populist policies mixed in with a couple of absolutely diabolical policies helping Russia and we have a presidential candidate that is a Russian mole.
If Russia isn't willing to pay in money they can always pay with land which they chronically mismanage anyway.
Who's going to take that land?
I have another question: why the west can't afford to speak truth about this war?
Because it will hurt their narrative
Russia is at the point where it is facing the sunk cost fallacy. They will not win this war, but they have "spent" too much and are unwilling to stop.
Also sanctions are not a quick tool, they are long term not short term. Look at North Korea as the perfect example, compared to the south it is easily half a century behind economically and even if they combined today, it would take twice that to equalize.
The most interesting thing in this video is how much the Russian military is getting paid in comparison to the general russian population. That alone indicates Russia has no incentive to stop war...ever. Forcing a portion of the general population to revert to a previous, lower standard of living is the most sure way to cause political upheaval.
Are the conscripts even being paid? From what I am hearing & reading what money gets tossed in their direction is stolen by officers and whoever and the pay is not getting to the people for whom it was designated.
@@brettany_renee_blatchley how can you pay a dead soldier?
But Russia will be forced at some point to reduce it's military spending.
They already used up most of the financial reserves they could put their hands on, everything else is frozen in western countries.
They already cut all investments and social spendings possible. And are still losing billions per month.
They already started to print new currency. But this newly printed rubles have literally no worth, because the economic growth ist driven by war there are simply no goods to buy. That already was the situation in many socialist countries in the late 80ies. That you had money, but you could not spend it because the warehouses were empty.
By extending the war, Russia will have to sell out it's core industries and infrastructure to China just to import goods to keep it's popolation happy. This will be the third Lose situation, because if it ended the war now, it would face some unrest, but would still have some economic strenght to beeing able to pay the reparations to Ukraine. But if it continues, not even this will remain.
It fulles resources
@@abcherbs4148 Russia economy is doing well. Why Russians are leaving Russia?
Russia is flooding the market with cheap crude they have to because they lost so much refining capacity.
That's why you are finally seeing a downward trend in fuel prices.
not true. Russia has cut oil production., the market has gotten used the current condition and has recovered. high gas prices are the new normal and will never go back to the way they were. Saudi cut oil production too. low oil production wont raise prices if there was already a shock to the market because it still meets the demand.
Right now they stopped esporting any fuels, and not only that- They buy the refined oil from Bellarus- that they sell them before
They also can't afford to stop production. Literally. These types of facilities are extremely costly to bring back on line (when it's even possible to do so). Given Russia's condition it's likely that any facilities taken offline would/could never be reactivated. (I'm thinking of extraction in particular.)
CONFLICT IN UKRAINE IS NOT A FOOTBALL GAME.
euh...no it is not but why this remark....because of winning that war or loosing that war for Russia....the consequences are worse if they win and have to keep up the war machine, because that is indeed why the economy of russia did grow. It would be very hard for the regime to stop because it would mean an economic collapse (you may not believe this but this is basic economy, you did see the same in Germany in the 30's and 40's)
@@dennisnijholt3046 because you all treat it as entertainment like a football game.
No. Football is war on the green.
I will keep commenting this until my fingers bleed.
@@AGW99-df3yg Mmm. Indeed. We all treat trying to educate ourselves like a game. Yes.
Just for comparisson, it took Germany one of the biggest economies in the world 15 years after the reunification with lots of political turmoil as a consequence to get back on it's feet...and the GDR wasn't in ruins, just broke and the people of the GDR didn't hate the FRG. So even if the Ukrainians go "this is fine, I guess we're Russians now" after a defeat, Russia is way too weak and incompetent to rebuild Ukraine. Oligarchs will simply exploit Ukrainian natural ressources and that's all...I guess all the Orcs dying in Ukraine are ok with that.
I think it's a good thing that wars, at least expansion wars, aren't worth it anymore which means it is less likely (or let's say unwise) for a country to wage war on another. This doesn't prevent it completely as we see here but all in all it does contribute to a much more peaceful future.
Has Putin agreed to cede territory to China yet? Will the siloviki accept losing the Amur Valley to China without a shot being fired?
The longer Russia stays in Ukraine the sooner that day will come.
Russia needs to pull out now or go under !!
Let them go under.
DREAM ON😅
Russian losses are insane,
Theyve lost almost 100× more people then the u.s. did in afghanistan
And we didnt even go all out,
We also didnt lose, we left.
We achieved our mission goals,
The Afghan government turned over control to the taliban not the U.s.
Yeah, your mission goals was to install Taliban government. 😂
As far as I've heard from other Russians, Russia has lost more people in the Ukraine already than the Soviet Union in 10 years in Afghanistan
@@SimeoNjegovan That was because a certain idiot told them precisely when the US would fully withdraw. All they had to do was quietly and peacefully wait.
The only winning move is not to play -- wargames
Funny, how West already deciding Where'd they put a bear rug, while said bear gnawing at their leg. Reparations, yeah. Sure 😂
From the creators of : Russia is running out of ammo, Russia figth with shovels, Russian economy will collapse due to the sanctions, now came : Russia can't afford either win or loose the war.
.. 😂😂
But Russia was out of ammo at that point... Then got resupplied by NK... And the economy is a bubble slowly getting bigger...
They wouldn't be in North Korea if everything was good right?
@@sabineterryn1513 according to western "analysis" Russia is out of ammo for 2 and a half years now... and I dont see any signs of this anywhere
@@unforgivensoul9042 Considering Russia is completely dependent on supplies from China and even North Korea, you can only not see signs anywhere if you deliberately choose to ignore them.
@@docburton8923 imagine 26 mil pop country producing missiles for a country in a total war. oh, right, this is what youre imagining right now
3:30 A number of assets Russia has said it'd seize also include property in other countries, so Russia continues its delusion of being a mighty empire.
Not to mention, he also faces international war crimes, the main reason he can't afford to lose!
Would the rebuilding of ukraine not create hundreds of thousands of jobs for Russia
Hundred of thousand of jobs that nobody in Russia or Ukraine want to work. Hundred of thousand of jobs that are not worth how much rebuilding Ukraine would cost. Hundred of thousand of jobs added to the millions in Russia that are not being worked, maybe you should have listened to the video.
It's not about "affording" for Putin. It's not about lives.
It's about pride.
theres a third way, russia keeps the strip of land its holding now down to crimea and abandons the rest
Or Russia just gtfo of other Countries...
@@Kumpelblase397 i would love it if life was that easy
I think Ukraine will have some issues with that resolution
Rookie mistake. You are thinking casualties are the same as deaths.
Otherwise fascinating TY
casualities are worse than deaths because you need medical staff and resources to look after injured service members, which is precisely why most small arm manufacturers after ww2 decided to make rifles chambered in 5.56, they were much less likely to kill
@@miles2142 Interesting but he did say killed
I am no Russian supporter, but I don’t believe the almost 500k KIA figure. It’s likely more like 50k. 500k would be nearly 40% of their active military. They’re certainly losing, but not losing their entire armed forces.
Western interpretation of our politics never ceses to amase me. Your life must be full of surprises.
I think rather than “it can”t afford to win or lose either way” it’s more accurate to say that Russia has already lost overall no matter what.
Haha im enjoying hearing Putins screwed either way 😂
The best thing about a Russian win might be the end of the US money laundering. Just imagine the benefits of spending billions of dollars here at home. The same American oligarchy will get richer but maybe a few Americans would benefit.
it is irrelevant what Russia wants, now Russia must lose. Putin's miscalculation was not invading a country, it was invading a country in Europe where there is NATO, the largest and strongest alliance in the world. NATO like it or not is now involved, and it is NATO which cannot afford to lose without being highly diminished. Now NATO is involved and that means whatever it takes, it has to win, that's the reason for the increase in level and amount of support to Ukraine.
Make no mistake, NATO must go as far as it takes, and that means Russia will lose.
So many russian bots in comment section, seems that there is no panic at all!
And american bots , are they paying you or you are just pupet?
@@SimeoNjegovansays the 3 week old russian bot
@@anigmaYT ok, american Biden bot , how old are you? 2 hours?
@@SimeoNjegovan my account is 6 years old twice yours
@@anigmaYT ok, so old bot.
In the 1950s, the UK 🇬🇧 realised they could not afford their colonies, so they took about 10 years to get rid of them into independent nations.
And they did so.. poorly
Russia is condemmed to irrelevance.
Nothing that big will become irrelevant.
@@d.e.b.b5788 Territorial size doesn't make a country relevant, which one do you think is more important to World economy, Mongolia or South Korea???
LOL, are you comparing Russia to Mongolia? Russia has a collosal amount of minerals, gas, oil, #3 food production in the world
@@user-qe2yv8ih6r and is poorer than Bulgaria
19:39 the thing is that Russia 90% of the time doesnt actually send money to the parents of these fighters.
You don’t understand Putin at all. Putin’s goal is only to occupy the four Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine, not the entire Ukraine.
That's rather naïve. Putin's goals were made quite clear in the erroneously-released victory article that was published on day 3.
Someone should recommend this video to Peter Zeihan.
Thank you youtube for deleting all my posts again glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦
that's the point, The Russian Federation will not going back to peace time Economy after the war end
imagine being a military channel and not being able to distinct 'casualties' from deaths, injures, missing in action etc? I do not support russia but why claim something you are not?
Russia must give up! We want it just to withdraw and beg for forgiveness!
It amazes me that the UN is not condemning Russia as much as there doing Israel even though ik the war in Gaza is bad because of the civilians but invading a country and taking there territory is not almost as worse? And then somehow USA is getting blamed but let it be there country and I bet us at the top of there list of countries they look to for support🤦🏾♂️ ik America not a perfect country but I see why I can never be in geopolitics or a politician I would go crazy
russia is a permanent member of the un so anything un does russia can just veto it and deny their statement
"There", "their" and "they're" are different words...
@@jasnostj good job bro. It’s text nobody really cares fr
Truth is, they can't. At least until something major comes down. When UN was founded, they decided it is a good idea to put the WW2 winners as inreplaceable security members. But after Soviet Union collapsed, Russia took the chair and nobody was against it for the last 30 years.
@@VORASTRA yup and now they can veto everything against them
Thought provoking video! Great work!
Most of the people in comments are watching too much James Bond
Russia has no intention of rebuilding Ukraine. Even if Russia took control of the entire country it would not rebuild. A devastated wasteland serves Russias purposes of being a buffer zone and would stand as a lesson to other countries of what to look forward to should the Russian world look their way.
I keep telling people, remember Iraq? Afghanistan? When did our real problems start? AFTER the war. The occupation. Even if Russia "wins" they still have the much harder part of the job. Imagine we went through everything we did in Iraq but worse but before we even got to that point it took us over 3 years and hundreds of thousands of casualties to win the initial invasion. This cannot end well for Russia. Be like the stab in the back Germans post WW1. Say the whole point of the war was to defend against NATO aggression and that you successfully defended Russia. No invader ever stepped on your soil. The Russians seem to believe everything Putin tells the anyway. Decalre victory and go home.
This is an argument actually for the West withdrawing (gradually if necessary), from Ukraine, since, while it might be unfeasible for Russia to capture and pacify the entirety of Ukraine, Russia is perfectly capable of maintaining the current stalemate, and will likely outlast the West.
I don’t think the issue the us and Europe would have with Russia freezing US assets is that big of a deal, rather, the dilemma is that if the US confiscates Russias assets it would create a bad reputation for the US. Leading to other countries such as China or even European countries to hesitate about investing in the US.
I certainly would not put any faith in claims nor economic data provided by Russia.
Russia will have to rebuild its armed forces after the war, so war production will continue and the return to civilian production will be gradual. It would be interesting to buy large slots of Chinese weapons to supply to Ukraine and see how the marriage between Russia and China would proceed
The West will have a similar population problem. Why do we assume bringing in millions of people that haye our culture won't have a worse effect? I would argue that Russia will be in a better position with 7 million fewer even as our population "grows"
as i recall, putin pulled his troops from kiev as a gesture of good will after an act of strength, as part of the background negations that were supposed to be signed shortly after
You're right, no winning situation. Going for Moldova will make NATO get involved. Dictator decisions 😂
Moldova is surrounded by NATO (Romania) and Ukraine. Russia is already at war with Ukraine. Things are not going so well for Russia. The Moldovan army consists of more soldiers than the Russian soldiers deployed in Transnistria. With the support of NATO and the Ukrainian army, the Moldovan army could probably put down an attack by Russian soldiers in Transnistria.
You should do a video on how the Nato countries have shot themselves in the face with this war they started how they will be in terrible financial problems from now on even if Russia was to let's say stop any more movement west in Ukraine. Then you should consider doing a video on how Nato doesn't have the military capacity to force Russia to stop or even leave Ukraine.
Of course NATO does both militarily and financially. America spent 300 million a day in Afganistan. You live in a fantasy land.
The latest aid that the US provided to Ukraine ($61B) is nearly as large as Russia's 2022 defense budget. The US regularly spends more than the next 9 nations on defense. How can you possibly think that Russia can compete against NATO when it can barely compete against Ukraine?
theautomaton22, NATO is in an economic class multitudes higher than Russia.
The only thing keeping NATO from just charging in and doing what's right is a barely-justified concern of a madman pressing the nuclear button out of petty spite. That and Russia being too incompetent to actually damage NATO assets and property _yet_