Although prices have come down somewhat, people are still overpaying for houses. I follow the Marco Island market (with Naples as “Plan B”). 40-50 year old homes, without pools, in AE Risk Factor 9/10 flood zones, on a barrier island, (I wonder what the flood insurance is) are still selling for $600K when these homes would have sold for $350K in 2019. Until people quit buying these homes at these prices, nothing will change.
Things are worth what people are willing to pay for them. That’s how it works. Being anchored to past pricing is not the way to go. If I buy it today for 500k and three people offer me 600k in three months, then it’s worth 600k not 500k.
Great job diving into these numbers! As for Sarasota, I'm predicting an explosion of inventory once we get into our peak season. Lots of houses that aren't selling have been taken off the market so they can put them back on in season. Combine that with the usual uptick in listings and we have the potential to see massive inventory numbers. And buyer demand probably won't keep up due to the economy.
Thanks my man! I am inclined to agree with you. A lot of variables in play externally right now, but I am seeing similar moves. They buyer demand is going to be the big what if scenario. Its going to be an interesting 2025.
Few people are familiar with the concept of "dead cat bounce". Those who are familiar with the concept/phenomenon, are not moving to buy. It's still a sucker's game, there is a reason why big investors are unloading, and the suckers think they've got a "deal". There will be bounces, not one, but several...
Agreed, it's a terrible time to invest in real estate. I expect a big crash after the election. There are very few properties that you can generate cash flow from at this point. I personally wouldn't put a dime in Florida. Time will tell.
That analogy is most often used in stock market analysis. And you may be correct here idk. Yet it’s generally agreed that over the long term real estate like the stock market will appreciate
I bought a house 1 year and two months ago in Florida central coast. Paid $465k and it just appraised $625k. This was the bank appraisal. I did lowball the seller and they accepted it after a few weeks of back and forth. Things are about to rip imo. This is the end of the buyer having any of the leverage. Rates will slide over the next 18 months gradually and prices will rise. When I bought, many peeps asked why would I buy in this market with such high rates. Easy because I had zero competition and was able to get an incredibly discounted wedge deal. Waiting for lower rates means higher home prices and way more competition.
Are there any metrics besides comps to determine value? Should aggressive buyers looking to buy in Florida right now, knowing they are probably buying in a declining market just offer 85% or 90% of asking with at least a five year time horizon. Great to hear the data, but now how should a potential buyer use the data to get a good value property or is it just wait another year? Thanks
Great question. It's very property specific and hard when there are no comps to support an offer price. The average ask to sold % in each area can be useful as well as a properties days on market. It's anyone's guess where it will go next year.
I would offer what you think the property is worth and see what happens. People are still overpaying for houses. I follow the Marco Island market primarily with Naples as Plan B. Prices have come down somewhat; however, people are still paying $600K for 40-50 year old homes in AE Risk Factor 9/10 flood zones on a barrier island that was hit hard during Ian. Until people stop buying this stuff at the prices listed, these houses will still be unaffordable.
I want to buy a house in Charlotte or Englewood. So the data for August says that the inventory went down to 6.8 and that is normal for this time of the year. So are you recommending to wait until January for more inventory?
There are generally more listings after the new year but also more buyers. Prices tend to trend lowest in the fall. 6.8 months of inventory is still more than we have had in years so it all depends on what works for your timeline.
The rents need to start COMING DOWN, big time! NO ONE BEDROOM should have a rental amount starting with a 2 or higher! It's a ONE bedroom!! If more people who have the money like me simply refuse to pay $2,000 or more per month to rent a condo or apartment, the rents will HAVE to come down!
I an honestly shocked with the amount of rentals on the market they have held out at these prices for this long. In my area they are down substantially from the peak but still way over pre-pandemic.
@@bensellin I don't see the point of investing in a rental property, only to price the rent so high that it stays vacant month after month after month, while the owner is still responsible for the condo dues!! It doesn't matter if I HAVE the money or not. What matters is whether people are going to pay MORE per month than a MORTGAGE payment on a 3BR house, to RENT a ONE bedroom apartment! That answer is NO, so these condo rentals in Miami need to start coming DOWN to UNDER $2K, or they're going to remain vacant!
Unbelievable that this departments job is basically statistics, and they got it wrong multiple months in a row by 2X and did not catch the problem! Maybe they should change careers to weather forecasting. People anticipate you being wrong by that much in that career. 🤣🤣
I'm new to investing, and I've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.
Trading is difficult, I'd spend the five grand on education for trading. It's not easy. Investing is different, that's easier. Short term or long term gain is the question.
I’m not a big RD fan, but FL has been boom and bust forever. What is needed that nobody really seems to want to address in office is jobs. This has always been the biggest issue in FL. Why don’t companies want to open shop there? I don’t know why. But we can’t blame any politician for people thinking they could work from home six figure jobs, forever. If you work from home, you should always consider what you will do if that music stops. And that’s the problem nobody wants to tackle.
3 neighbors on my street have their homes for sale over 90 days now here in Jacksonville.
And price drops if any, are 5K. Delusion is strong on this one.
They might be underwater on their leverage.
Although prices have come down somewhat, people are still overpaying for houses.
I follow the Marco Island market (with Naples as “Plan B”).
40-50 year old homes, without pools, in AE Risk Factor 9/10 flood zones, on a barrier island, (I wonder what the flood insurance is) are still selling for $600K when these homes would have sold for $350K in 2019.
Until people quit buying these homes at these prices, nothing will change.
Things are worth what people are willing to pay for them. That’s how it works. Being anchored to past pricing is not the way to go. If I buy it today for 500k and three people offer me 600k in three months, then it’s worth 600k not 500k.
I look forward to these videos every month. SO helpful. Thank you
Great job diving into these numbers! As for Sarasota, I'm predicting an explosion of inventory once we get into our peak season. Lots of houses that aren't selling have been taken off the market so they can put them back on in season. Combine that with the usual uptick in listings and we have the potential to see massive inventory numbers. And buyer demand probably won't keep up due to the economy.
Thanks my man! I am inclined to agree with you. A lot of variables in play externally right now, but I am seeing similar moves. They buyer demand is going to be the big what if scenario. Its going to be an interesting 2025.
Few people are familiar with the concept of "dead cat bounce".
Those who are familiar with the concept/phenomenon, are not moving to buy. It's still a sucker's game, there is a reason why big investors are unloading, and the suckers think they've got a "deal".
There will be bounces, not one, but several...
Agreed, it's a terrible time to invest in real estate. I expect a big crash after the election. There are very few properties that you can generate cash flow from at this point. I personally wouldn't put a dime in Florida. Time will tell.
That analogy is most often used in stock market analysis. And you may be correct here idk. Yet it’s generally agreed that over the long term real estate like the stock market will appreciate
very nice great job
Thanks for checking it out!
Could you check up on Okaloosa and Waalton counties occaisionally? I know they're not likely to generate as much interest.
Great stuff!
Thanks!
As I've been saying, houses are still selling surprisingly well. Condos not so much, but even they are still expensive
I bought a house 1 year and two months ago in Florida central coast. Paid $465k and it just appraised $625k. This was the bank appraisal. I did lowball the seller and they accepted it after a few weeks of back and forth. Things are about to rip imo. This is the end of the buyer having any of the leverage. Rates will slide over the next 18 months gradually and prices will rise. When I bought, many peeps asked why would I buy in this market with such high rates. Easy because I had zero competition and was able to get an incredibly discounted wedge deal. Waiting for lower rates means higher home prices and way more competition.
Ty
What is “pending inventory?” Thanks for another great video.
Thanks! Total number of units that are currently under contract to sell.
Could you include the Manatee county as well?
Are there any metrics besides comps to determine value? Should aggressive buyers looking to buy in Florida right now, knowing they are probably buying in a declining market just offer 85% or 90% of asking with at least a five year time horizon.
Great to hear the data, but now how should a potential buyer use the data to get a good value property or is it just wait another year? Thanks
Great question. It's very property specific and hard when there are no comps to support an offer price. The average ask to sold % in each area can be useful as well as a properties days on market. It's anyone's guess where it will go next year.
I would offer what you think the property is worth and see what happens.
People are still overpaying for houses. I follow the Marco Island market primarily with Naples as Plan B. Prices have come down somewhat; however, people are still paying $600K for 40-50 year old homes in AE Risk Factor 9/10 flood zones on a barrier island that was hit hard during Ian.
Until people stop buying this stuff at the prices listed, these houses will still be unaffordable.
I want to buy a house in Charlotte or Englewood. So the data for August says that the inventory went down to 6.8 and that is normal for this time of the year. So are you recommending to wait until January for more inventory?
There are generally more listings after the new year but also more buyers. Prices tend to trend lowest in the fall. 6.8 months of inventory is still more than we have had in years so it all depends on what works for your timeline.
Ben - love the content but show Broward County some love and next time show our stats please.
Thank you. I have to try to keep these things relatively short so selection is tough, but I'll try to sub you guys in next time!
I want to buy a nice SFH in Boca Raton. I'm going to wait until '26.
The rents need to start COMING DOWN, big time! NO ONE BEDROOM should have a rental amount starting with a 2 or higher! It's a ONE bedroom!! If more people who have the money like me simply refuse to pay $2,000 or more per month to rent a condo or apartment, the rents will HAVE to come down!
I an honestly shocked with the amount of rentals on the market they have held out at these prices for this long. In my area they are down substantially from the peak but still way over pre-pandemic.
@@bensellin I don't see the point of investing in a rental property, only to price the rent so high that it stays vacant month after month after month, while the owner is still responsible for the condo dues!!
It doesn't matter if I HAVE the money or not. What matters is whether people are going to pay MORE per month than a MORTGAGE payment on a 3BR house, to RENT a ONE bedroom apartment!
That answer is NO, so these condo rentals in Miami need to start coming DOWN to UNDER $2K, or they're going to remain vacant!
Soon, you may be able to buy a downtown Miami condo penthouse for under $100,000.
Talk about the rent is too damn high!
The florida market prices will collapse shortly. This us nit a sellers market. The market us frozen.
Unbelievable that this departments job is basically statistics, and they got it wrong multiple months in a row by 2X and did not catch the problem! Maybe they should change careers to weather forecasting. People anticipate you being wrong by that much in that career. 🤣🤣
You are spot on sir! It was downright appalling.
Not much to see here folks, the condo data will be the skunk at the garden party.
I'm new to investing, and I've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.
As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a pro or a very good trader to keep you accountable.
Someone like expert Mary Patricia Hester
Omg! Mary's strategy has made winning trades a regular occurrence for me as well! It's a huge milestone when I think back on how it all started.
Amazing! I'm so surprised to see Ms. Mary being mentioned here under this comment!
Trading is difficult, I'd spend the five grand on education for trading. It's not easy. Investing is different, that's easier. Short term or long term gain is the question.
Desantis ruined Florida
why?
I’m not a big RD fan, but FL has been boom and bust forever. What is needed that nobody really seems to want to address in office is jobs. This has always been the biggest issue in FL. Why don’t companies want to open shop there? I don’t know why.
But we can’t blame any politician for people thinking they could work from home six figure jobs, forever. If you work from home, you should always consider what you will do if that music stops. And that’s the problem nobody wants to tackle.
Desantis here to stay. MOVE OUT. Bone voyage
💯💯