Always enjoy it when you do a deep data dive and appreciate how much work that is…thanks! I will buy a card in any slab , but when I grade it is SGC, faster,cheaper and vintage looks so good in a tux!
Enjoyed the analysis Graig! Always interesting to hear how the overall market is doing. I've noticed recently that the cards that I'm chasing aren't softening much. Another anomaly that I noticed is that for the bigger, iconic cards, the SGC graded ones are going up quicker in lower grades (A-4) and the PSA ones are going up faster in higher grades (6-8). Thanks for taking the time to do this for the community!
Hi Graig. I always enjoy these types of episodes, as it gives us some data on the card market. Thanks for all the hard work you do and your analysis is awesome. Thanks for sharing pal. Talk soon my friend.
The main takeaway for me is look how many more SGCs are selling today than 1.5 years ago. The dent they have made in PSAs vintage business seems to be significant. Most grades didn’t sell in March of ‘23 almost all grades sold in September ‘24. Love these deep dive analytical videos. Keep them up! If I were one of those guys on the stock shows I would be pounding the table and telling everyone to buy Mays on the dip!!! Also rookies will be cool again someday so Brock, McCovey and Killer look good to me. Still need McCovey of the three and have already been looking for the right one.
I was a little shocked looking at the PSA population reports on some of my vintage. Population on vintage is growing. Is there more vintage supply than we think?
@@MidLifeCards I also heard folks talking about any recent graded vintage carries risk that it was probably “cleaned” and people are staying away from it.
The question isn’t “why is vintage going down?” , I would ask the question “why would vintage go up?” Jackie has an easy answer…his life story, movies, documentaries, MLB annual ceremonies keeping his legacy relevant.
I would say a shift in interest into vintage. That could be occurring for a few reasons. I am a child of the late junk wax era, and have collected all the cards I wanted from that period. But, being someone who likes the history of the game I have a parallel collection focusing specifically on Johnny Bench and Hank Aaron (I have met Bench and I'm a Braves fan). Like any commodity interest shifting to vintage can drive prices (sort of like the stock market. (but that is more of an idiosyncratic reason, less of a market one). TO ME the mot likely driver MARKET that could be shifting interest in vintage (and increased interest means more demand, without any hope of increased supply..and that means vintage will go up...business 101) is the price of hobby boxes today. Outrageous...if you like baseball cards AND MAJOR gambling on maybes and could be, then the high priced hobby box era we are in is for you. But I'm not a gambler and, all due respect, I'm not paying $2500 for a PSA 10 Bobby Witt purple-nurple glitter RC, when for 1500 more I can get a nice Aaron sgc or psa 4 RC. I don't like to gamble, but I still like to collect. And ....damn...I have seen people blow stacks of cash at card stores on boom/bust boxes. So my interest has become less on taking a gamble on new prospects (except Soto and Acuna, both of whom I bought on the secondary market). That could be a longer term answer for a stable increase in higher vintage prices. I am not saying we will see huge swings in vintage prices, but I'm not buying 1 nice Ohtani card, when for the same money I could get a several nice Aaron cards. A possible explanation.
@@jasongray9696 I still believe 99% of vintage is going to continue to go lower. Take a look at your “junk wax era” PSA 10 Market, rare inserts, and refractors from the 1990s. Those cards are growing in popularity for us 40+ year old guys. There will be big shift into 90’s cards.
I can't quite understand why people would pay such a premium for plastic and the opinion of PSA graders. SGC has more rigorous standards, are less expensive and have faster turnaround. I only use psa because the plastic sells better 🤷
Great analysis! This took some time to put together, so thank you for sharing. I think the hobby overall is healthy and this is just some normal market movement. Buy low!
It’s hard to make any kind of conclusions without a very large sample size. For example, I have been keeping tabs on 55 Koufax rookies as I’m looking to jump in soon. A SGC 2.5 justifiably sold for WAY over comps the other night, outselling all if not most of the recent PSA 3s, because it looked amazing and someone paid up for it. I don’t think it had anything to do with the holder, it was just an amazing looking card. With vintage in particular, cases like this can drastically sway the data one way or another, making it very difficult to make any concrete determinations. On a completely unrelated note, I was thinking about one of your old videos in which the discussion was about names that could see value increase in the future. I originally speculated on Griffey and Jeter as the newer generation of collectors might relate to them more. With the same logic, I’d like to throw two new names in the ring. Albert Pujols Ichiro Suzuki
There are some interesting trends right there. I have been saying that Jackie is going to only get more and more pricey over the years. Could it eventually pass Mantle eventually? Only time will tell.
I love the data and analytics that you provide for the vintage market. Love, love, love. I’ve become a student of vintage baseball and admit I don’t know much about it besides key names. However, I would love to hear a little bit more about vintage basketball and footballif it is interesting enough to you to talk about thanks.
Graig, I’m sure I speak for many when I say thank you! The time that it must’ve taken to put this together was I’m sure significant. Is it possible Mays could be down because many folks were buying him trying to get “ahead of the curve” before his passing, and now that he’s gone prices have regressed back to more standard ranges? Fascinating watch!
My guess with Mays is exactly what you said. Plus....cards flooded the market when he died with people trying to profit. But, that's obviously speculation.
I could be wrong, but my thoughts are as follows: NBA season is inching closer, football Sundays, MLB end of the season, and now the playoffs. It's possible that some of the money which would be going into vintage, is being spread out more widely to other parts of the card market. I don't know. Just speculating. Maybe that doesn't really affect vintage at all, but something to think about and consider, maybe.
I’d say that any marquis player would fare better in a PSA holder as there is a perceived view that you can get more money for any card in that slab. These are players that can be liquidated rather easy. Any rookie card I would say can keep there value more in a PSA slab because of set registries. I can not explain the Willie Mays trend in you study.
Very interesting... Looks like people have been selling SGC HOF RCs far too cheap at BIN prices lately. I'd say more than a few people have sold themselves short this week alone on their high-quality 1963 Topps Pete Roses based on your data... Good stuff, Graig. I always appreciate these ones especially. I still have no clue where you find the time for this!
I do not understand why Mays prices are down while Berra, Mantle, Jackie are all up. Interesting that all these players played in NYC and have the biggest fan bases in mlb I would guess. Would have been interesting therefore to include say Ted Williams.
Data deep dive! Well done my friend. That is a tremendous amount of effort to put in. I am a slacker! I just show cards on my channel LOL. Great job Graig!
Thanks Jason. It was a lot of work, but I think it's valuable for collectors to know what's happening (financially) with cards. I know some don't care much about values, but I know a lot of us do!!
I always love these deep dives, Graig. Like you said, this tells us what's going on in a moment in time. I think and have said many times that SGC is closing the gap. I like you, am puzzled by Mays. I have also said this before, the only way I can explain it is that out of the all-time greats, Mays had the biggest run-up during the pandemic. So if that's true, his cards are going to come back down if we are going through a "correction." I think there are also economic causes as well. Just my 2 cents. Thanks again for diving into this. It's fascinating!
If we consider inflation over that period of time, did many of the cards actually go up? I don’t see much debate about US dollar inflation and card prices… it’s easier to overlook and pretend cards are going up (or less down).
Graig had a thought on the Mays cards. Have you gone back further and retrospectively compared against March 23? It could be that he had a long run up given his age and people trying to buy before he passed (and maybe overpaid). Now perhaps the prices are normalizing. Just a thought - have not looked at this myself but perhaps this is what is happening.
That's a great question. It's tough because these are super time consuming, but sometimes it does make me ask additional questions. I'd be interested in doing a deeper dive on some of the key players from that era.
glad to see that SGC is closing the gap. I hope that will continue. vintage seems to be a niche in the card collecting market. I'll make another comparison to that other love of mine, film. many people won't watch or won't collect classic films for their library and think that film began in 1977 with Star Wars. BUT... many of those people will have seen Seven Samurai, 2001, or possibly Casablanca and have those films in their film collections. I think Mantle and Jackie are to modern card collectors what those films are to modern film lovers. because PSA seems to dominate the hobby for modern collectors, that is my theory for why they are king on cards of those players - there is crossover appeal for a Mantle card (everyone wants one even if it's the only pre-1970 card in their collection) and for Jackie cards whose contributions to society outweigh even his baseball accomplishments. he's honored once a year in every ballpark and every young boy who has ever had to write a paper for black history month or for a historical figure would be wise to choose Jackie to learn about and write about.. as I did. (I used Jackie as a topic for a school paper probably 3 or 4 times in my school days.) 🙂 I would think the results for Clemente cards would be the same (PSA higher) and I expect all of his cards to go up in value in the near future for reasons similar to Jackie.
Interesting work and I really dig what you are doing. I would guard against too much interpretation. There simply isn't enough data to really draw any meaningful conclusions. For a given player, in a given slab, at a given grade, comparing point in time 1 to point in time 2 does not establish trend. It can only serve as a comparison of the two points in time. You need at least 3 equivalent points of comparison to establish a trend. If you commit to repeating this every 4-6 months over a couple years, this would then start to show something closer to the actual market situation.
Great Job Graig you put in so much work on this. My opinion has not changed.PSA is higher simply because in most cases the comparable card in each grade is better or harder to get in PSA than SGC. I dont think preference has anything to do with it. I simply think its eye appeal wins with a PSA copy vs SGC copy in the same grade more times than not. My favorite thing or what I get out of these videos is what player is going up and what is going down. Mantle, Jackie still Kings. Nice to see hank aaron going up. Mays does surprise me for sure. I think its a great time to collect Mays 😉🤙🤙
Good points Dylan. I hope this is evidence that people are buying the card and not the grade. But, I also hope it means they're buying the card and not the GRADER. :-)
Your data dive videos are my favorite. I agree that the data on Mays makes no sense. Do you think comparing all the base playing day cards of these players would give similar results?
Great video,i only use sgc for vintage because the graders at psa don't grade vintage as good as sgc ,PSA will give you a lower grade is what I'm trying to say so you ahead using sgc , especially with the lower grading fees
After 35 minutes of intense analysis, I’ve come to an epiphany… Buy the card; not the holder. Simply no other conclusive takeaways to be drawn. It actually makes me want to buy the cards ungraded.
Nice research. Love a deep dive like this. As long as 2's plummet across the board im happy. Unless i already have it. Then let it climb, climb, climb. 📉📈
Always enjoy it when you do a deep data dive and appreciate how much work that is…thanks!
I will buy a card in any slab , but when I grade it is SGC, faster,cheaper and vintage looks so good in a tux!
SGC really is so fast and so good.
Enjoyed the analysis Graig! Always interesting to hear how the overall market is doing. I've noticed recently that the cards that I'm chasing aren't softening much. Another anomaly that I noticed is that for the bigger, iconic cards, the SGC graded ones are going up quicker in lower grades (A-4) and the PSA ones are going up faster in higher grades (6-8). Thanks for taking the time to do this for the community!
Thanks Darren. I appreciate you, my friend.
Hi Graig. I always enjoy these types of episodes, as it gives us some data on the card market. Thanks for all the hard work you do and your analysis is awesome. Thanks for sharing pal. Talk soon my friend.
Thanks Stephen.
Need to account for EYE APPEAL with Vintage cards - prices are Inaccurate if you don’t account for this when comparing.
That's fair. But, I feel like an average tends to even that out.
The main takeaway for me is look how many more SGCs are selling today than 1.5 years ago. The dent they have made in PSAs vintage business seems to be significant. Most grades didn’t sell in March of ‘23 almost all grades sold in September ‘24. Love these deep dive analytical videos. Keep them up! If I were one of those guys on the stock shows I would be pounding the table and telling everyone to buy Mays on the dip!!! Also rookies will be cool again someday so Brock, McCovey and Killer look good to me. Still need McCovey of the three and have already been looking for the right one.
I agree that SGC is catching up.
I was a little shocked looking at the PSA population reports on some of my vintage. Population on vintage is growing. Is there more vintage supply than we think?
How many are resubmissions though? Hard to know.
@@MidLifeCards I also heard folks talking about any recent graded vintage carries risk that it was probably “cleaned” and people are staying away from it.
The question isn’t “why is vintage going down?” , I would ask the question “why would vintage go up?”
Jackie has an easy answer…his life story, movies, documentaries, MLB annual ceremonies keeping his legacy relevant.
Fair points.
I would say a shift in interest into vintage. That could be occurring for a few reasons. I am a child of the late junk wax era, and have collected all the cards I wanted from that period. But, being someone who likes the history of the game I have a parallel collection focusing specifically on Johnny Bench and Hank Aaron (I have met Bench and I'm a Braves fan). Like any commodity interest shifting to vintage can drive prices (sort of like the stock market. (but that is more of an idiosyncratic reason, less of a market one).
TO ME the mot likely driver MARKET that could be shifting interest in vintage (and increased interest means more demand, without any hope of increased supply..and that means vintage will go up...business 101) is the price of hobby boxes today. Outrageous...if you like baseball cards AND MAJOR gambling on maybes and could be, then the high priced hobby box era we are in is for you. But I'm not a gambler and, all due respect, I'm not paying $2500 for a PSA 10 Bobby Witt purple-nurple glitter RC, when for 1500 more I can get a nice Aaron sgc or psa 4 RC. I don't like to gamble, but I still like to collect. And ....damn...I have seen people blow stacks of cash at card stores on boom/bust boxes.
So my interest has become less on taking a gamble on new prospects (except Soto and Acuna, both of whom I bought on the secondary market).
That could be a longer term answer for a stable increase in higher vintage prices. I am not saying we will see huge swings in vintage prices, but I'm not buying 1 nice Ohtani card, when for the same money I could get a several nice Aaron cards.
A possible explanation.
@@jasongray9696 I still believe 99% of vintage is going to continue to go lower. Take a look at your “junk wax era” PSA 10 Market, rare inserts, and refractors from the 1990s. Those cards are growing in popularity for us 40+ year old guys. There will be big shift into 90’s cards.
I'll stick with SGC. They're cheaper to grade, quicker to grade, look better, and apparently cheaper to buy.
I don't disagree. SGC is doing a great job.
I can't quite understand why people would pay such a premium for plastic and the opinion of PSA graders. SGC has more rigorous standards, are less expensive and have faster turnaround. I only use psa because the plastic sells better 🤷
Agree
SGC grades easy though
Like you said, data tells a story. Thanks for putting in the work
Thanks for watching and taking the time to comment.
Great analysis! This took some time to put together, so thank you for sharing. I think the hobby overall is healthy and this is just some normal market movement. Buy low!
Thanks so much for watching and commenting. Buying low is always a great plan!!
It’s hard to make any kind of conclusions without a very large sample size. For example, I have been keeping tabs on 55 Koufax rookies as I’m looking to jump in soon. A SGC 2.5 justifiably sold for WAY over comps the other night, outselling all if not most of the recent PSA 3s, because it looked amazing and someone paid up for it. I don’t think it had anything to do with the holder, it was just an amazing looking card. With vintage in particular, cases like this can drastically sway the data one way or another, making it very difficult to make any concrete determinations.
On a completely unrelated note, I was thinking about one of your old videos in which the discussion was about names that could see value increase in the future. I originally speculated on Griffey and Jeter as the newer generation of collectors might relate to them more. With the same logic, I’d like to throw two new names in the ring.
Albert Pujols
Ichiro Suzuki
It's a snapshot, for sure. Never intended for it to be the answer to the questions....just some data and some insight.
There are some interesting trends right there. I have been saying that Jackie is going to only get more and more pricey over the years. Could it eventually pass Mantle eventually? Only time will tell.
I don't think Jackie will ever pass Mantle...but I think he may be #2 from that era.
I love the data and analytics that you provide for the vintage market. Love, love, love. I’ve become a student of vintage baseball and admit I don’t know much about it besides key names. However, I would love to hear a little bit more about vintage basketball and footballif it is interesting enough to you to talk about thanks.
Appreciate that. I haven't shown many basketball cards for a while, and plan on showing a few when Basketball season officially begins.
Appreciate all the work you put in on this, Graig. Thanks for yet another great video and the information. Cheers!
Thanks for those kind words. I truly appreciate it.
Graig, I’m sure I speak for many when I say thank you! The time that it must’ve taken to put this together was I’m sure significant. Is it possible Mays could be down because many folks were buying him trying to get “ahead of the curve” before his passing, and now that he’s gone prices have regressed back to more standard ranges? Fascinating watch!
My guess with Mays is exactly what you said. Plus....cards flooded the market when he died with people trying to profit. But, that's obviously speculation.
I could be wrong, but my thoughts are as follows: NBA season is inching closer, football Sundays, MLB end of the season, and now the playoffs. It's possible that some of the money which would be going into vintage, is being spread out more widely to other parts of the card market. I don't know. Just speculating. Maybe that doesn't really affect vintage at all, but something to think about and consider, maybe.
All are good guesses for sure.
Great work Graig, truly appreciate your analysis. Thanks for sharing
My pleasure!
I’d say that any marquis player would fare better in a PSA holder as there is a perceived view that you can get more money for any card in that slab. These are players that can be liquidated rather easy. Any rookie card I would say can keep there value more in a PSA slab because of set registries. I can not explain the Willie Mays trend in you study.
The perceived value and registry seem to continue to be the bread and butter of PSA
Very interesting... Looks like people have been selling SGC HOF RCs far too cheap at BIN prices lately. I'd say more than a few people have sold themselves short this week alone on their high-quality 1963 Topps Pete Roses based on your data... Good stuff, Graig. I always appreciate these ones especially. I still have no clue where you find the time for this!
Thanks Ben.
Great analysis.. SGC is clearly closing gap and with their superior consistency, returning speed and customer relations makes it good for the hobby.
Agreed.
Thanks for doing the homework Graig!! I appreciate your interesting analysis and all you do for the card hobby!!
My pleasure!
I just cannot do it with SGC - my eyes hate the way their slabs look. I’ve gotta stick with BGS or PSA if I am keeping in my PC.
I get it. We all have different taste. I'm just glad we have options.
I do not understand why Mays prices are down while Berra, Mantle, Jackie are all up. Interesting that all these players played in NYC and have the biggest fan bases in mlb I would guess. Would have been interesting therefore to include say Ted Williams.
Ted Williams and Roberto Clemente aren't included and would be interesting.
Data deep dive! Well done my friend. That is a tremendous amount of effort to put in. I am a slacker! I just show cards on my channel LOL. Great job Graig!
Thanks Jason. It was a lot of work, but I think it's valuable for collectors to know what's happening (financially) with cards. I know some don't care much about values, but I know a lot of us do!!
Great analysis Graig. I have a few thoughts but don't have time to properly put them in the comments right now.
Thanks John.
Great information Graig. I wish you did the same for the football card market. Thanks again.
Thanks Don!!
Gave a video like. Another great video, Graig
Thank you! Cheers!
I always love these deep dives, Graig. Like you said, this tells us what's going on in a moment in time. I think and have said many times that SGC is closing the gap. I like you, am puzzled by Mays. I have also said this before, the only way I can explain it is that out of the all-time greats, Mays had the biggest run-up during the pandemic. So if that's true, his cards are going to come back down if we are going through a "correction." I think there are also economic causes as well. Just my 2 cents. Thanks again for diving into this. It's fascinating!
Thanks buddy.
If we consider inflation over that period of time, did many of the cards actually go up? I don’t see much debate about US dollar inflation and card prices… it’s easier to overlook and pretend cards are going up (or less down).
The value of the dollar has definitely gone down.
What a Masterclass this morning. Always an interesting topic.
Thanks Mr. Petty. Looking forward to recording our conversation together this afternoon.
I think PSA set registry factors in time and time again.
No doubt.
Graig had a thought on the Mays cards. Have you gone back further and retrospectively compared against March 23? It could be that he had a long run up given his age and people trying to buy before he passed (and maybe overpaid). Now perhaps the prices are normalizing. Just a thought - have not looked at this myself but perhaps this is what is happening.
That's a great question. It's tough because these are super time consuming, but sometimes it does make me ask additional questions. I'd be interested in doing a deeper dive on some of the key players from that era.
Great work Graig
Thanks so much. Glad you enjoyed it.
Thanks for the deep dive. Where are you pulling the sales data from?
Good question. I pulled all of the recent sales data from Card Ladder.
glad to see that SGC is closing the gap. I hope that will continue. vintage seems to be a niche in the card collecting market. I'll make another comparison to that other love of mine, film. many people won't watch or won't collect classic films for their library and think that film began in 1977 with Star Wars. BUT... many of those people will have seen Seven Samurai, 2001, or possibly Casablanca and have those films in their film collections. I think Mantle and Jackie are to modern card collectors what those films are to modern film lovers. because PSA seems to dominate the hobby for modern collectors, that is my theory for why they are king on cards of those players - there is crossover appeal for a Mantle card (everyone wants one even if it's the only pre-1970 card in their collection) and for Jackie cards whose contributions to society outweigh even his baseball accomplishments. he's honored once a year in every ballpark and every young boy who has ever had to write a paper for black history month or for a historical figure would be wise to choose Jackie to learn about and write about.. as I did. (I used Jackie as a topic for a school paper probably 3 or 4 times in my school days.) 🙂 I would think the results for Clemente cards would be the same (PSA higher) and I expect all of his cards to go up in value in the near future for reasons similar to Jackie.
I hope it continues, too!!
Interesting work and I really dig what you are doing. I would guard against too much interpretation. There simply isn't enough data to really draw any meaningful conclusions. For a given player, in a given slab, at a given grade, comparing point in time 1 to point in time 2 does not establish trend. It can only serve as a comparison of the two points in time. You need at least 3 equivalent points of comparison to establish a trend. If you commit to repeating this every 4-6 months over a couple years, this would then start to show something closer to the actual market situation.
No doubt. It's simply a snapshot. But, I think it at least shows something as to what's going on. My plan is to continue to keep tabs on it.
Great Job Graig you put in so much work on this. My opinion has not changed.PSA is higher simply because in most cases the comparable card in each grade is better or harder to get in PSA than SGC. I dont think preference has anything to do with it. I simply think its eye appeal wins with a PSA copy vs SGC copy in the same grade more times than not. My favorite thing or what I get out of these videos is what player is going up and what is going down. Mantle, Jackie still Kings. Nice to see hank aaron going up. Mays does surprise me for sure. I think its a great time to collect Mays 😉🤙🤙
Good points Dylan. I hope this is evidence that people are buying the card and not the grade. But, I also hope it means they're buying the card and not the GRADER. :-)
Your data dive videos are my favorite. I agree that the data on Mays makes no sense. Do you think comparing all the base playing day cards of these players would give similar results?
That's a great question. I tend to think it's player based and not set/year based, but that's just a guess.
Great video,i only use sgc for vintage because the graders at psa don't grade vintage as good as sgc ,PSA will give you a lower grade is what I'm trying to say so you ahead using sgc , especially with the lower grading fees
SGC definitely does a great job and have lots of vintage graders.
After 35 minutes of intense analysis, I’ve come to an epiphany… Buy the card; not the holder. Simply no other conclusive takeaways to be drawn. It actually makes me want to buy the cards ungraded.
Easier said than done. Our brains have a hard time overruling the number on the slab.
Gregg - your videos are so informative. How do I get your address so I can gift you a card? Thanks Joe Escalante
Thanks Joe!! My email address is the description of all of my videos. Shoot me and email.
Why was my first comment deleted?
I didn't delete it. So, if it's gone, that's because RUclips filters got it for some reason. None of that makes sense to me.
Nice research. Love a deep dive like this. As long as 2's plummet across the board im happy. Unless i already have it. Then let it climb, climb, climb. 📉📈
LOL. I'll root against the 2s that you don't have yet. LOL.