Buying a Company for Half Off | Phil Town

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  • Опубликовано: 18 сен 2024
  • At Rule #1 Investing, we only buy companies when they're on sale. Looking at a margin of safety price will determine if its the right time to buy into a company that's on your wishlist. In today's video, I’m going to teach you how to find out if a business you’re looking at is on sale. bit.ly/2nQD6kF
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    margin of safety price, earnings per share,

Комментарии • 280

  • @PhilTownRule1Investing
    @PhilTownRule1Investing  5 лет назад +8

    What companies can you find that are selling for below their sticker price? Leave a comment below with your answer.
    Are you busy but want to learn more about investing? Listen to my podcast on your commute to work or while you're home making dinner! Click here for my top 10 best episodes: bit.ly/2ngdFsz

    • @frankyg6906
      @frankyg6906 5 лет назад +6

      I’ll give you 2 names if you give me 2 names first 😁

    • @michaelburgess9031
      @michaelburgess9031 5 лет назад

      Acuity Brands #AYI ... (almost anyway)

    • @thainesmith1
      @thainesmith1 5 лет назад

      We must invert the story to know why someone would sell you their shares and give up that 10% FCF yield and most importantly why they’re wrong

    • @davuslgi
      @davuslgi 5 лет назад +6

      Look at Biogen -BIIB-
      Big Company
      PE Ratio of 8
      Free Cashflow of the last 4 quarters: about 30$ per Share. Share is around 221$ so even Cheaper than 10x free Cashflow.
      Low Debt, Huge mode, lot of Insider buying rn, just negative press.
      Ray Dalio is also invested

    • @thainesmith1
      @thainesmith1 5 лет назад

      davuslgi why would someone sell you their shares at that price then? What’s the fear around the company and why is it not warranted?

  • @ajm9238
    @ajm9238 5 лет назад +10

    Between 2009-2011 i purchased for cash 10 residential rental properties for around $10,000 each. Fixed them up and have been renting them for $795-$850 for the past 10 years. They paid themselves off in 1.5 years. They are cash flowing machines. Now their value is between 60k and 110k each. Now i have been using that money to fuel my stocks portfolio which has increased to 250k over last 2 years. I love my 100% gainers! I never touch a penny of that money i just keep rolling it over to the next value stock that i did my research on. I only sell after my stocks go up minimum 100%. My home is paid for and my monthly expenses are $950. I live very frugal, though i dont have to. I have more fun saving and investing than i do spending money. All this and i still drive my 1998 ford escort that i bought 11 years ago for $2500. I use to work 50-60 hours a week in a cabinet shop for 10 years but now with realestate i have my life back and i am no longer trading my life for money. The 2009 realestate crash created alot of net worth for alot of people who were hungry for it. My story is just one of many! I am thankful to have a story to tell. When eveyone was calling me "stupid" and "why do you want to buy realestate the market is crashing youll lose everything!" I went with my gut knowing i could fix up that property and find a good tennant. I started with one property and kept on going. Now those same people today are telling me they wished they would have invested when i did. So now they are still stuck in their 9-5 and hate it. I told everyone that now is the time to buy but i guess i was the "stupid" one! lol Do i dare say, "I'm looking forward to the next market crash!" Im living proof that's how small fortunes are made! Live frugal and keep investing and rolling that money over.

    • @jasonmitchell7767
      @jasonmitchell7767 5 лет назад +1

      I did the same in stl. Rent is not as high. But definitely cash cows.

    • @kishorekumar624
      @kishorekumar624 4 года назад

      Where do you live and where did you buy your properties?

    • @ajm9238
      @ajm9238 4 года назад

      @@kishorekumar624 In the midwest region. Prices were all the same everywhere within the same type neighborhood. But I did not buy in ghetto areas. The older bluecollar neighborhoods but still kept up descent. Not very big homes, around 1000 sq.ft. or less (houses and condos) but still able to bring in rent between $795-$925 which is a good average for this area. Four of those tenants are now sec. 8 which I'm starting to like more and more. (Guaranteed state money.)

  • @joseespaillat1376
    @joseespaillat1376 5 лет назад +8

    Phil, after reading your book Rule One Investing book, Investing in the stock market is the best thing ever invented. After watching this video and after reaching my own conclusions, real estate is the second best way to make money and become wealthy. It will be wonderful if you could write a book on real estate just like you approach stocks. Teach us how to determine the growth rate, the sticker price, etc. Thank you 🙏

  • @PositiveInvesting
    @PositiveInvesting 5 лет назад +1

    *Altria (MO) fits this criteria.* Free Cash Flow is $8.15B. x10 = $81.5B. Current market cap is $75.1B!
    MO is at excellent value and this is just another method that proves it :)
    Other examples are ABBV, ETFC

  • @AmitSingh-re4te
    @AmitSingh-re4te 5 лет назад +37

    ​Everything is so expensive right now. I will be patience and keep making a wish list of wonderful businesses.

    • @user-ww6ii6zn8m
      @user-ww6ii6zn8m 5 лет назад +6

      Same here. I'm looking forward to the next recession so I can pick up some great stocks for a bargain!

    • @shawnmiehlke6270
      @shawnmiehlke6270 5 лет назад +2

      Won't be soon the way it looks...if jobs numbers are bad tomorrow, look out below!

    • @enigmathegrayman2953
      @enigmathegrayman2953 5 лет назад +8

      Amit Singh
      Nah, keep doing your research, there are deals now in the stock market.

    • @marksoberay2318
      @marksoberay2318 5 лет назад

      Agree

    • @videoschannelb
      @videoschannelb 5 лет назад

      few chinese stocks good value now ,anyone into these ?

  • @ZhengLaoshi
    @ZhengLaoshi 4 года назад +9

    Hi Phil. Really great and simple explanation. Thank you for keeping educating us. I think there is a misspoke at 7:29. I think you meant maintenance capital cost $1000 per year, not per month. Correct?

  • @diafaradrame9823
    @diafaradrame9823 4 года назад +2

    This is one of the best videos in my opinion. Because my goal is individual stock investment first and then Real Estate investment. I just learned more from you yet again. Thank you Phil! God bless!

  • @kevinkur
    @kevinkur 4 года назад +3

    Bank stocks according to the DCF calculator are significantly undervalued. Most of them including JPM, BAC, and WFC are well over 10 cap. And with a recession most likely occurring in the next 2-3 years, i think it would be wise to slowly buy until then. And once it drops, pour money in like there’s no tomorrow.
    HD is also a play at this price point

  • @jelaneytaters8149
    @jelaneytaters8149 5 лет назад +2

    To my understanding if the free cash flow times 10 is equal to the market cap of the business it's fair value. If the market cap is significantly LESS than free cash flow times 10 it's a discount.
    So using this method ( and factoring in many other things )
    Fiat Chrysler, TEVA and Micron Technology are the best buys right now

    • @azeddineelissaoui3120
      @azeddineelissaoui3120 4 года назад

      I think we have to compare it with company value not market cap 🤔

  • @henrymichal8522
    @henrymichal8522 4 года назад +1

    Finally, a simple answer to a question I have been pondering, thats why I love your explanations. They are simple and easy to follow. Thanks again.

  • @christophertaylor3150
    @christophertaylor3150 5 лет назад +5

    Thanks for sharing this. It really helps me get a better grasp of determining when to buy. According to this I have made both good and bad decisions in the pasr.

  • @allvegansaretall4157
    @allvegansaretall4157 4 года назад +2

    This is great thank you so much for your help and I love hearing you and Danielle banter you sounds like such a loving family!!!

  • @christianolsen7834
    @christianolsen7834 5 лет назад +2

    Abercrombie is sitting at a POE of 7.2. faces a few challenges, but nothing I think they can't handle, otherwise a healthy business. probably going to add it to my portfolio this Monday, hopefully, the price drops a little more over the weekend ;)
    Morgan Stanley POE is 2.5. Their financials ain't too good, and they haven't been doing so well despite the bull market. I'm worried they might tank doing the coming recession, but it got some juicy value.
    Etrade is sitting at 6.7. Havn't looked much into them, have a lot A LOT! of liabilities, but I suspect these are mostly from the leverage used on their platform.
    NN group sitting at 6.2. Got negative free cash flow, and negative operating cash flow, but it sure is cheap.
    And last but not least Peugeot trading at POE of 5.6 havn't looked into them, but unlike NN group they actually look a lot healthier.
    Any thoughts on the above companies?

  • @AmitSingh-re4te
    @AmitSingh-re4te 5 лет назад +5

    Excited to know, can't wait for tomorrow

  • @richardweidner9719
    @richardweidner9719 5 лет назад

    Thanks for all you do Phil ! I hope you feel better.praying , you have a speedy recovery.

  • @thanaung320
    @thanaung320 4 года назад +1

    If I understand your explanation correctly ... it sounds like you recommend not to buy stock with P/E ratio > 10.0x ... please let me know if I misunderstand it.

  • @vitaminb4869
    @vitaminb4869 5 лет назад +1

    Yeah, I'm from Vancouver, Canada, and I had a good, long chuckle at this.

  • @michaels3349
    @michaels3349 5 лет назад +1

    Hi Phil,
    It’s hard now, but yes I find for example the jewelry producer Pandora (ticker Pandy)
    Price-to-Owner-Earnings/Pandora-AS and free cash flow 4-5!

    • @Alisskaa
      @Alisskaa 5 лет назад

      Michael S their business model is dying

    • @michaels3349
      @michaels3349 5 лет назад

      @@Alisskaa
      Hi Alissa,
      Thanks for your comment. Maybe you are right and it’s a value trap.
      But my girlfriends like their products and they have a strong long term incentive program for (the new) management. And I know a German good value fond who bought the shares.
      With regards

  • @GoodDay-jp5hi
    @GoodDay-jp5hi 4 года назад +1

    Now...this is what I call a tip or a best advice ..thank you !

  • @omkardubey8654
    @omkardubey8654 5 лет назад +49

    Mr. Phil, Has anybody ever told you, you look like Jamie lannister from game of thrones.

    • @thatdividendguy
      @thatdividendguy 5 лет назад

      HAHAHA! He totally does.

    • @ElvishShellfish
      @ElvishShellfish 4 года назад

      @@thatdividendguy makes me surprised he's not just telling everyone to buy gold!

    • @Mooreeezy
      @Mooreeezy 3 года назад

      I can't unsee it now

  • @christianalexander8778
    @christianalexander8778 4 года назад +7

    Hi. So when I look at the "free cash flow" line of a company's cash flow statement in their financials, the number is in the millions or billions. I don't understand what you mean by "multiply by ten" to decide if it's a good deal. There must be some other factor to divide this number by.

    • @chinesemedicine
      @chinesemedicine 4 года назад

      Hi did you figure it out?

    • @jeremylangloisproperty
      @jeremylangloisproperty 4 года назад

      Christian Alexander I guess this would have to do with the percentage of stock you’re looking at buying? Would you multiply the small percentage of stock you’re buying by ten, rather than the million or billion number? I think this works... I’m just getting started in investing myself so I’m just having a go at helping you figure this out.

    • @nemorotatory
      @nemorotatory 4 года назад +1

      And then you divide this number by the number of shares the business issued. You should get the stock price

    • @felixfawk2256
      @felixfawk2256 4 года назад +9

      @@chinesemedicine In the video he mentions doing this with Apple stock around 2017 (2 years ago) Apple's Free Cash Flow was 51,774 Billion in 2017. Multiplying the FCF by 10 = 517,740. Now take that number and divide it by the number of total shares in the market at that time (Roughly 5.3 Billion shares) and you get the price at which you want to buy the stock at. However in order to divide the shares appropriately you must use 5300 instead of 5.3 as the total outstanding shares are always a rough number just like if we reported Apple's FCF as 51.7 Billion instead. The price of Apple stock at that time ranged around $100 a share. Calculated out the price at which it is equal to 10x is $97.67 per share.

    • @felixfawk2256
      @felixfawk2256 4 года назад +6

      Keep in mind though that taking the average of a company's FCF over a few years is always wise as basing your buying decision off a record FCF year could mean that you are drastically overvaluing the company's true FCF future.

  • @PassiveIncomeTom
    @PassiveIncomeTom 5 лет назад +13

    Nothing is really on sale right now to 10X your returns. Keep building up your cash or at least invest in dividends. 😉

    • @peterparks9435
      @peterparks9435 5 лет назад

      Passive Income Tom yeah your right, but something will reset soon.

    • @mccu0736
      @mccu0736 4 года назад

      Paid off, didn't it?

  • @francescoguarnacciaresults2121
    @francescoguarnacciaresults2121 5 лет назад +6

    FCAU, SIG, GIII are selling pretty well and are good companies, up to me, off course.

    • @jawadshuaib
      @jawadshuaib 5 лет назад

      What is the free cash flow for FCAU?

    • @francescoguarnacciaresults2121
      @francescoguarnacciaresults2121 5 лет назад +1

      @@jawadshuaib Hi Jawad, Look at the 10K document of the company. Anyway FCAU has a good cash flow, it has a low debit also in comparison with FORD, GM and Toyota. ...and it's results in US are very good. Moreover it's sold at a very good price. I suggest you to make your analysis to evaluate it from your point of view.

    • @jawadshuaib
      @jawadshuaib 5 лет назад +1

      Francesco Guarnaccia thanks for the reply

  • @someone66ful
    @someone66ful 5 лет назад +1

    question for the people:
    what do you think about Phil Town's Rule #1 Investing?
    Didn't follow him that much but I am looking for more investing/financial adjudication. I am aware of basic things like money flow, assets, liability etc. I am 25 and want to start with investing.
    It seems there is a lot of people giving advice on investing.
    Should I follow this channel?
    Does content on this channel apply worldwide?
    Thank you

    • @matt9060
      @matt9060 5 лет назад +2

      So, when I started, I began with technical investing. Thankfully, I never invested anything with that, but I wasted about 4 months learning it all. Then, when I moved on to actual investing, the first book I read was the intelligent investor. The second book I read was Rule 1 investing or Phil's book and then I just feel off the deep end into investing.
      The intelligent investor is an amazing book which every single DYI investor needs to read. However, I won't lie, I was confused or bored or both? At many parts of the book. Phil's book on the other hand connected with me quickly and gave me a frame work for investing. This includes everything you need to consider when investing, and everything is based on Warren Buffetts own investing methods. Of course, after learning a lot more I went back and reread the intelligent investor and it all makes sense to me now. And yes, the intelligent investor really is one of the most important books out there for investing.
      So, yes, this channel has great information and yes it's applicable to global markets. A key thing to note though, is that value investors, or Rulers as Phil calls us, only invest in asset producing securities. If you are interested in Futures trading, Forex, and other speculation, value investors and this channel has nothing for you.
      One thing to keep in mind, if you want to get good, it's a lot of work. It took me a year to become competent, and I know I will likely never stop learning. Part of that year though, was building my own spreadsheet to make things more automatic.

    • @sc358.
      @sc358. 5 лет назад +2

      Yes, he teaches good fundamentals and 3 basic ways to look at intrinsic value. You will want to expand.
      Get a good hold on accounting as everything builds from it:
      - The Accounting Game by Mullis & Orloff
      - Warren Buffett Accounting Book by Stig and Preston
      - Financial Statements by Ittelson
      Read:
      - The Dhando Investor by Mohnish Pabrai
      - The Essays of Warren Buffett by Cunningham
      - If you want a glimpse of Phil's stuff read Invested by his daughter Danielle Town
      - You Can Be A Stock Market Genius by Joel Greenblatt
      - Master The Market Cycle by Howard Marks
      - There is a pdf of everything Buffett ever wrote, nearly 5,000 pages
      Then start reading annual reports, lots of them.
      Learn to pass very quickly on ideas to not waste time.
      Check out Mohnish Pabrai's videos and reading list.
      That'll get you started.

  • @tonybayuk3712
    @tonybayuk3712 2 года назад

    Thanks Phil, great educational tool

  • @martinfromseacity2010
    @martinfromseacity2010 4 года назад

    Great refresher, Thanks for your time.

  • @noisycarlos
    @noisycarlos 5 лет назад +6

    Argh, these premieres always get me. Alright then, see you tomorrow.

    • @PhilTownRule1Investing
      @PhilTownRule1Investing  5 лет назад +4

      Sorry Carlos... the good news is that it is a great practice in patience, something all great investors must have 😉

    • @noisycarlos
      @noisycarlos 5 лет назад +2

      @@PhilTownRule1Investing haha. Fair enough. Thanks for the video :-)

  • @MichaelJosephJr934
    @MichaelJosephJr934 5 лет назад +4

    Half off is great. That's almost 50 percent!

  • @Squintillions
    @Squintillions 5 лет назад +3

    An example with an actual stock would have been helpful, even if it failed the 10x test. Maybe I missed it, what figure are we supposed to be looking at to compare the 10x number to? Also, how might you use this tool to see if past purchases were “worth it”?

    • @manhlinhdoan2406
      @manhlinhdoan2406 5 лет назад

      normally I look at PE ratio (Net income x PE = Market Cap)

    • @matt9060
      @matt9060 5 лет назад +4

      So the formula is: Free Cash Flow Per Share / Share Price. This is the same as stating Free Cash Flow / Market Cap. The reason why 10x is a bargain is because 10x = 10% yield. Which is really really good. In 10 years 10%/year = 2.59x your money.
      11x is still good as that's a 9.09% yield which is 2.39x your money. If you can find one for 9x then that's even better as that's an 11.11% Yield which is 2.87x your money.
      There's nothing to really compare it too. Essentially, the smaller the multiplier the better, like 9x. But the smaller the multipler the more impossible it is to find great companies at that price.

    • @mindfullyaware5047
      @mindfullyaware5047 5 лет назад

      @@matt9060 Thanks Matt! :-)

  • @user-ww6ii6zn8m
    @user-ww6ii6zn8m 5 лет назад +5

    Great video Phil! I'm looking forward to the next recession so I can pick up some great stocks for a bargain!

  • @zhenzhu8248
    @zhenzhu8248 5 лет назад +23

    TESLA!!!!!! 500 shares! Let's see this in 10 years. Posted today 3Oct2019. Revisit this in 3Oct2029. Only time will tell, laugh at me if I'm wrong. Love what they are doing :)

    • @MichaelJosephJr934
      @MichaelJosephJr934 5 лет назад +4

      It's on my calendar.

    • @zhenzhu8248
      @zhenzhu8248 4 года назад +1

      My average bought price was $265

    • @kishorekumar624
      @kishorekumar624 4 года назад

      @@zhenzhu8248 great investment. Now its at 360$

    • @mig-stallion1359
      @mig-stallion1359 4 года назад +1

      Damn. That was a good trade. 30% up since your comment.

    • @zhenzhu8248
      @zhenzhu8248 4 года назад +1

      @@mig-stallion1359 long term investor here, still have many years ahead :)

  • @3flgator
    @3flgator 5 лет назад +2

    Also, I'm already contributing 5% (the employers match) to a 401k and maxing out a roth IRA ($6k). Your feedback is very valuable. Thanks again. I'm 36.

    • @washimmachine
      @washimmachine 4 года назад

      Im doing the same except I'm at 10% into 401k, and maxing out my Roth IRA and HSA account

  • @sunnypan9057
    @sunnypan9057 4 года назад

    For sure he's Warren Buffett's disciple, revealing his top secrets. Have to say I love Phil. To the question at the end: It's Mar 19,2020 now. After 3 routs in a couple of weeks and the sharpest plunge of the markets, there're plenty of ten caps. For example STOR gets $458 Million FCF, $4.16 Billion Market Cap. Enjoy the gold shower, Phil.

  • @dessiebatiste4945
    @dessiebatiste4945 2 года назад

    I enjoy your presentation .

  • @mystic13337
    @mystic13337 5 лет назад +3

    Altria maybe

  • @Jbm510
    @Jbm510 5 лет назад +1

    I like this video with your in depth look at a *Ten Cap*

  • @allaview27
    @allaview27 2 года назад

    Verizon (granted its debt is high). Burford (litigation finance company due to it's counter cyclical nature of business)

  • @NANGSGARAGE
    @NANGSGARAGE 5 лет назад +1

    Building up cash right now and waiting for a sale

  • @darkdefender6384
    @darkdefender6384 2 года назад

    Very valuable thank you!

  • @johnstreckfuss3068
    @johnstreckfuss3068 3 года назад

    new follower here. I look forward to attending an event in Atlanta

  • @ionkayak1948
    @ionkayak1948 5 лет назад +1

    Thank you, Mr Town!

  • @ims7865
    @ims7865 4 года назад +1

    I dont understand the 10% rule...Can someone explain it in detail please

  • @cullenb.8945
    @cullenb.8945 5 лет назад +1

    THANKS UNCLE PHIL

  • @G14U
    @G14U 3 года назад

    Quickest way to this is price/fcf metrics.

  • @KarstenKiilerich
    @KarstenKiilerich 5 лет назад +1

    Thanks for this great short cut Phil :) If you look at GrafTech International (EAF) - it's priced even better than a 10 cap right now.

    • @sc358.
      @sc358. 5 лет назад +1

      Great pick, I own it. It's a price to FCF of about 4.5 - 5.25 depending on full year free cash and trades at about 7.5 times if you include net debt. In 3-5 years the majority of cash will come back through contracted earnings. If the bull case doesn't play out, then there is a low probability of loosing your principal. If it does play out, then it is definitely a multi bagger and trying to figure out how/when to exit will become our predicament.

  • @shawnsullivan9908
    @shawnsullivan9908 3 года назад

    Phil energy stocks on sale and when travel gets back to where it was (( cruises ,Airlines, etc ) fuel will continue to go up !!,
    Stock SHLX pays 16.43 percent dividend and PE of 8.67 With eps of 1.29 off one year high of $22.00 from March of 2020 its a long position
    Down side Electric vehicles and green energy . What’s your thoughts ?

  • @vihangchaudhari
    @vihangchaudhari 4 года назад

    Awesome explanation! but Which year's free cash flow should I look at? the recently issued or the previous ones??

  • @wolfofdubai
    @wolfofdubai 5 лет назад

    It is great to find this kind of bargains.
    But with time and nowadays this gets really really hard!

  • @yanpeng4491
    @yanpeng4491 5 лет назад +2

    apple never had a PE ratio below 10. When was it 10 cap?

    • @joeri2499
      @joeri2499 5 лет назад +2

      Yes Apple was under a 10 ttm pe, even recently. Early 2016 it was a 9,9 briefly. And he isn't talking about pe, it's about free cash flow

  • @semcify
    @semcify 3 года назад

    What does 'buying at ten cap price' mean? The market cap matches the ten cap price?

  • @RamboFranjo
    @RamboFranjo 5 лет назад

    Great video Phil, love the simplicity! thank you

  • @akpfit
    @akpfit 5 лет назад

    Hi Phil. I have been looking at a TON of companies lately. Off the top of my head, I found B&G Foods (BGS) to be selling today, below a ten cap rate. Free cash is 167m. Outstanding shares is 65m. When i do the math, I get 25 per share. It is currently selling at 16/share. Growth rates look fantastic as well in rev, net income, eps and equity. What do you think?

  • @louisthompson1020
    @louisthompson1020 4 года назад

    Man , you do a great job with investment education ...Align is on sale according to MOS

  • @AbdulrahimBani
    @AbdulrahimBani 3 года назад

    should i subtract the company's debt from the cash flow ?

  • @AmitKumar-qh1ts
    @AmitKumar-qh1ts 4 года назад

    Can you do an example where you take a company, find out its free cash flow, and show how much we should pay for it? I just did it for VRSK. Looked up its Balance Sheet and Statement of Cash flow on SEC. Its operating cash flow was 956.3 mil. Minus Capital Expenditure of 216.8 mil gave me a free cash flow of 639.5 mil. Dividing by outstanding 163076000 shares gave me 3.9. Times ten would be $39. Does this seems to be the correct price to pay for VRSK? Right now, VRSK is trading for $148.

  • @jawadshuaib
    @jawadshuaib 5 лет назад

    Excellent Video! Should we look at the Free Cash Flow or the Levered Free Cash Flow?

  • @christianmunro6031
    @christianmunro6031 5 лет назад

    Great Video, to determine the buy price, is it better to use the calculated margin of safety price from valuation or the ten cap price? Should you still buy if price is trading at margin of safety price, but less the 10% earnings yield, (ten cap)? Thanks

  • @georgenevy
    @georgenevy 5 лет назад +1

    Hi, Phil!
    Great information. I love your channel!
    What do you think about this book: Tom West - The essential guide to pricing businesses and franchises? 2019 edition

  • @jarredwoolis4929
    @jarredwoolis4929 4 года назад

    I don't understand. 'That's the price you should pay' if 10x free cash flow equals what? The market capital?

  • @erykkozub8736
    @erykkozub8736 3 года назад

    I know I’m a little late but I did this math with CVS today and I got 99. It’s currently trading at 65. It seems too good to be true. Did I do the math wrong?

  • @greglee7708
    @greglee7708 4 года назад

    You're a great guy Mr. Phil

  • @Simon-je7ko
    @Simon-je7ko 5 лет назад

    For me right now. I do not quite understand this method. What I do is a list of companies shares and I look if the value did go down. I never buy a share, unless the value is down. Since the market always recover. If they go down 4%. I just did 4%. Why it is so complicated to understand? I buy shares of great companies. But If I would think that one day they would close. I would never buy one share.

  • @Mooreeezy
    @Mooreeezy 3 года назад

    13:00 the Golden equation

  • @yesacccasey
    @yesacccasey 4 года назад

    So do you divide the 10 cap # by the number of shares outstanding to find the purchase price?

  • @Sunil-he8xm
    @Sunil-he8xm 5 лет назад +2

    Altria $MO

  • @kaumallose6198
    @kaumallose6198 4 года назад

    You are wonderful

  • @UnkleRiceYo
    @UnkleRiceYo 3 года назад

    This all sounds good but must be nonsense... As of March 2020, following this rule, Apple would need to sell off by 64% to reach this price (around $40) (so I call bull on the fact that Apple was a Ten cap when you bought into it) and for a firm like Visa, that would be a sell off of around 70% to come down to the $71 needed and that's even being generous and using 2019 FCF. Chipotle would need to sell off a whopping 93% to reach the price recommended of around $103 and at this point if a stock falls by these numbers then you're not really investing, you're betting on distressed assets let's be real.

  • @LLyrik09
    @LLyrik09 4 года назад

    So wait we take the free cash flow of the business and x 10 and if that's more than the market cap on the company is that a buy?

  • @rajibear77
    @rajibear77 5 лет назад

    Hi. Phil,what about in leveraged scenarios where there is a mortgage. Wouldn’t you Subtract the mortgage interest and then have the owners earnings.

  • @drajapaksa
    @drajapaksa 4 года назад

    Its good if you can show how the calculation is happening - simply using a white board... Thank you

  • @egor.okhterov
    @egor.okhterov 5 лет назад +12

    How come Berkshire bought Amazon with so rich valuation?

    • @MrRaitzi
      @MrRaitzi 5 лет назад

      They look at casflow per share like all other Amazon investors.

    • @marksoberay2318
      @marksoberay2318 5 лет назад

      This time it's different!

    • @vitaminb4869
      @vitaminb4869 5 лет назад

      @@marksoberay2318 that's not an excuse to buy something completely out of wack with Buffet's "magic formula". I can guarantee you that 10x rule is just the most basic rule possible, and applies only to stagnant trash boring stocks like banks and utilities. Tech is in a whole another league, similar to how some expensive cities are.

    • @marksoberay2318
      @marksoberay2318 5 лет назад

      @@vitaminb4869 I'm being sarcastic. Avoid Amazon the stock hasn't moved in 2 years, the pe is a silly 90 and could easily drop to 40 or lower and you lose half your money

    • @vitaminb4869
      @vitaminb4869 5 лет назад

      @@marksoberay2318 Hasn't moved in 2 years? It's up 76% in past 2 years. And no one looks at PE's. It's same thing as coming to Vancouver trying to buy a house for $100k just because that's how much they go for in your village, when there is absolutely no house less than a million in Vancouver. They will just laugh at you and tell you to not waste their time.

  • @rajibear77
    @rajibear77 4 года назад

    Do you subtract the mortgage interest in the calculation?

  • @jarredwoolis4929
    @jarredwoolis4929 4 года назад

    Please help what is the formula? is it..
    free cashflow *10 / Amount of shares = price you should pay?

  • @fredricw6129
    @fredricw6129 5 лет назад +1

    Where is the best place to find current FCF?

    • @felixfawk2256
      @felixfawk2256 4 года назад

      The free cash flow of many major companies are available on the macrotrends website for free. However keep in mind that smaller companies and companies with negative cash flow may not be available or the only cash flow data available will be quarterly in which case you should take the average quarterly FCF and multiply it by 4. Averaging yearly FCF is also not only a good idea but almost mandatory as FCF rarely remains constant from year to year and in order to determine what sort of return you can expect from a company bad FCF years must be counted as well. (Unless the average FCF is negative in which case you shouldHeavily research the company to determine if it has any investment potential at all.)

  • @mikecole1664
    @mikecole1664 4 года назад

    Phil
    Landlord friends have told me that one has to figure at least 1-2 months a year the rental will be empty. Renters moving, etc.
    Also, love your clear advice but the music has got to go 😄 So distracting 😫

  • @ybstyle3941
    @ybstyle3941 4 года назад

    Thank you phill for this video I have a question I would like to ask you which is how can i know if a company will grow in 10years

  • @patrickzingg8657
    @patrickzingg8657 5 лет назад

    Great video! Thanks

  • @robertkubis2799
    @robertkubis2799 4 года назад

    Excellent video. You have just got another subscriber. One question, do you have a video explaining what to pay for a certain share of stock at a given moment. Sorry, but I think it's called an intrinsic value. How to calculate it? Let's say PayPal sells right now at $137 and I wanted to find out what is the real price value plus margin of safety, how to calculate this? Thanks in advance

  • @anandcanji7367
    @anandcanji7367 4 года назад

    Hi I'm your massive follower of yours. Could u please make a video on brexit, as in how will stock market will be effected if the brexit is done.

  • @donybg
    @donybg 5 лет назад

    BAC free cash flow per share is $0.88, $0.88 x 10 = $8.8/share. Buffet bought BAC shares at a price three times that. What am I doing wrong?

  • @mathyderabadi5513
    @mathyderabadi5513 5 лет назад

    Thanks Phil.

  • @theentertainmentchannel3419
    @theentertainmentchannel3419 Год назад

    I found one but there was not many

  • @3flgator
    @3flgator 5 лет назад +1

    Hi Phil, what's your take on building a Ray Dalio like all weather portfolio now for me as a newbie given the looming recession. I have 10 to 15k to invest now. Love your videos. Thanks

    • @eljuancho2
      @eljuancho2 5 лет назад +1

      Javier Sanchez in stock markets I'll stack cash as much as I can,you can look at businesses and real estate,while you build cash for the stocks

  • @GracefulShanks
    @GracefulShanks 5 лет назад +1

    I have a python script that will calculate the intrinsic value, ten cap and payback time price at 15% for a list of tickets I give it. The only stocks close to a ten cap are cyclical stocks like AMD or MU. Problem is that value is calculated using a FCF value that fluctuates with great volatility and is difficult to price accurately. That said, 3M and FedEx are getting close to their ten cap and I am watching closely as those are wonderful companies that have stood the brunt of many tough business cycles. Kohl’s is getting closer to its ten cap but like the semiconductor companies, FCF is probably inflated with consumers doing very well right now.

    • @jawadshuaib
      @jawadshuaib 5 лет назад

      Thanks for the insight. Is your script on github? Would love to look at it.

    • @ahmedelmaamoun6249
      @ahmedelmaamoun6249 5 лет назад

      @@GracefulShanks Excuse me, How to run or make the script work, Is there any interface or something?
      Thanks in Advance

    • @GracefulShanks
      @GracefulShanks 5 лет назад +1

      Ahmed El Maamoun you can run it in a python notebook with Jupyter if you want something interactive.

    • @ahmedelmaamoun6249
      @ahmedelmaamoun6249 5 лет назад

      @@GracefulShanks Thank you so much, I used PyCharm to run it, but it gives this message
      line 3, in
      import pandas as pd
      ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'pandas'
      So could you please tell me if you know how to solve this error?

    • @GracefulShanks
      @GracefulShanks 5 лет назад +1

      Ahmed El Maamoun you’ll need to install the packages used. You sound new to python so I would suggest some basic tutorials first

  • @OMG_BeCkY
    @OMG_BeCkY 5 лет назад +1

    Aaaaand how do we know if we should trust the management team??

    • @egor.okhterov
      @egor.okhterov 5 лет назад +1

      One of the clues is they talk straight about their mistakes and problems in the company. If they use language that obscures problems instead of putting them right in your face, that's a red flag.

  • @reyesdario352
    @reyesdario352 4 года назад

    Mr Phil do you think Boeing is on sale right now?

  • @_egghead
    @_egghead 4 года назад

    Do you mean by FCF is net income x 10 = market cap?

  • @narimanz
    @narimanz 5 лет назад +3

    I believe micron is one of those companies. ($MU) the p/e ratio is 5 and is making so much on ROE. Eventhough it went down due to global trade issues, im still optimistic. What do u think?

    • @sc358.
      @sc358. 5 лет назад +1

      Micron has industry secular tailwinds, has oligopolistic nature (a big thing people miss that can add a lot of value) that may take some time to prove out and management is retiring shares. It is fairly attractive. I bought at average cost of $35. I did speculate and sell half at $50 to try and buy more. I'm optimistic that the price will keep falling. Correlation of events in the past don't necessarily align with the present but industry capex shows earnings bottoming early/mid next year and stock price has lagged that roughly 6 months or so. I'm hoping towards the end of this year and into next year I can buy more. With any luck it'll go under $33. The stock shouldn't trade there and it should not have gotten as cheap as it did, gotta love how much animal spirits play into it. I'm very bullish over the long term but hoping for better pricing in the short term.

    • @gintonik6208
      @gintonik6208 5 лет назад

      free cash flow per share (14.68) x10 = 145, so this is the price to pay? it sells at the moment for 43, so it would be very cheap

    • @sc358.
      @sc358. 5 лет назад

      @@gintonik6208 No, not sure where you got those numbers.
      Market cap of 48 billion less net cash of about 3 billion means your paying about 45 billion.
      Currently it has FCF of about 3.3 billion or 4 billion adjusted ($2.95-3.55 per share).
      With cyclicals, you have to try and normalize cash flows through a cycle. You also may want to consider if you think the oligopoly will play out which will mean less of peaks and troughs. There is also buybacks and growth to consider.
      Not everything can always be valued simply as a 10 cap. Something growing rapidly at 40% sustainable at a 10 cap vs something fading away at a 10 cap are very different things.

    • @jawadshuaib
      @jawadshuaib 5 лет назад

      @@sc358. Do you look at the Levered Free Cash Flow when making these calculations? I believe the OP took the numbers from finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/key-statistics?p=MU
      Thanks for the insight!

    • @sc358.
      @sc358. 5 лет назад +1

      @@jawadshuaib SEC Edgar. I look directly at the annual and quarterly reports.
      Kinda anywhere is fine to get numbers at first when your initially looking but if it passes initial screens you verify with the actual filings. If it's another country, then it's also a good idea to check their home filings to make sure they match. There were plenty of Chinese companies for example overstating their earnings, by a lot in the US filings compared to theirs.

  • @reyesdario352
    @reyesdario352 4 года назад

    This video is awesome.

  • @InvestingEducation
    @InvestingEducation 5 лет назад +1

    I would lov to buy my existing holdings at half price off

  • @Gkire
    @Gkire 4 года назад

    Hi Phil, I was wondering, when looking out for FCF I come across the terms levered and unlevered FCF. I suppose that Levered Free Cash Flow is the same as the FCF that you refer to in your movie is it not?

  • @joezhou5426
    @joezhou5426 2 года назад

    必须点赞。 have to give a trumb up.

  • @christophertaylor3150
    @christophertaylor3150 5 лет назад

    I a
    Have a few CEFs that are selling at a good discount to Nav that are giving a close to 10% yeild off of earnings. Wouldnt this qualify as a 10 cap especially if their market price and nav are growing over time?

  • @Kataang101
    @Kataang101 4 года назад

    I'm a young new investor and I just want to clarify, when you say multiply the company's free cash flow by ten and that's the price you should buy how does that work? quick example: company has 1 Million dollars in free cash flow, times 10 gets 10 million dollars. so what do I do with this 10 million dollar value? am I doing the calculation right? am I even calculating with the correct numbers?
    Any explanation is appreciated!

  • @lokeyfunny
    @lokeyfunny 5 лет назад

    Loved the video Phil

  • @anangambarman4606
    @anangambarman4606 4 года назад

    But what about banks they seem to have negative cashflows🤔???

  • @thatdividendguy
    @thatdividendguy 5 лет назад

    I go for anything at a PE 15 or lower. But the market is at around a 22 PE so anything below is below market value and anything above is over priced. If you wanna know if the company you are looking at is at a good value compare it to the market (S&P 500) and then determine if your getting a deal. Honestly 3M and JNJ are both near 52 week lows so I would say both are great value. I know JNJ is having another lawsuit but not sure why MMM is lower.

  • @mikecook8261
    @mikecook8261 4 года назад +1

    Phil, just watched and wanted to know if AT&T is a 10k at its present price.

  • @rrmaloles
    @rrmaloles 4 года назад

    What about picking a stock that has below 10 P/E ratio. Much easier right?

  • @jonaspereira007
    @jonaspereira007 5 лет назад

    Check The Navigator Company. It is a portuguese company that is one of the biggest producers of paper in the world. I think it is close to tencap.

    • @dinheirolivre-fernandoalme567
      @dinheirolivre-fernandoalme567 5 лет назад +1

      i did invest some money in ALTRI Stock that produces paper too.

    • @jonaspereira007
      @jonaspereira007 5 лет назад

      @@dinheirolivre-fernandoalme567 I didn't analyse ALTRI very thoroughly but it should be a good investment as well

    • @dinheirolivre-fernandoalme567
      @dinheirolivre-fernandoalme567 5 лет назад

      @@jonaspereira007 yeah i bought it mainly because of dividends to be honest, will see where its going

    • @jonaspereira007
      @jonaspereira007 5 лет назад

      @@dinheirolivre-fernandoalme567 also like high dividends. I also bought NOS. They have a good dividend as well