Government Tearing Down the Canadian Housing Market Down w/Daniel Foch - E55

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  • Опубликовано: 16 окт 2024

Комментарии • 16

  • @littlepinner05
    @littlepinner05 9 дней назад +3

    Great discussion. One thing I want to push back against is the notion that the recent population growth will result in an explosion in demand to purchase houses in the coming years.
    The thing most people ignore is that we were able to absorb so many immigrants/non-permanent residents (NPRs) in the last 3 years because we had an extremely overheated job market with record job vacancies and businesses screaming for workers. It could be argued that this record demand for workers was largely (or at least partially) fueled by the significant increase in real estate values and the ‘wealth effect’ (both perceived and real). People felt rich, so they went out and spent money and many were able to do so by re-financing, taking out HELCOS, extending amortizations, and/or selling.
    Now that house prices have stalled for 2+ years, we are starting to see the economic impact. It is becoming clear that our economy was heavily dependent on continually increasing house prices to fuel growth, and without that driver, our economy is weak with low productivity. We are starting to see unemployment rise and gain momentum.
    Given how many of the recent arrivals to Canada are NPRs and low-skilled/students and that our economy is starting to slow, I think we need to be careful about population growth projections going forward or making assumptions about its future impact on the housing market. We are already starting to see policy changes on immigration/NPRs being enacted, which will likely ramp up if the economy continues to decline and unemployment continues to rise. If we hit a hard landing, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see population growth stagnate or even decline, given that we have 3 million NPRs (though we could also end up with an illegal immigration problem/black market for employment if people refuse to leave).
    All that to say, I don’t see how demand for houses or house prices would increase in that environment, so I wouldn’t take it as a given that population growth will result in higher prices.

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  • @stephenfermoyle4578
    @stephenfermoyle4578 8 дней назад +1

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