The #1 Draft Strategy You NEED In 2023
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- Опубликовано: 16 сен 2024
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Very very insightful. As someone who works with data all day, I like the analysis, super interesting and definitely on track to get ahead of the field.
Thank you!
Id say TDs are the only stats that works well with stacking, thats why i believe the best stacks are QBs with TEs, youll likely get those 2 TDs weeks
Been waiting on this one, thanks for all you do man!
Appreciate you!
Last year I had burrow and Higgins stacked, it almost won me my league until it was the reason I lost it (bengals v bills cancellation) I’m def gonna try to stack a qb wr again.
Hopkins released, all my Hopkins teams are now gonna smash
Yessir in the same boat my friend 😎
Hopekins
Yessir!
That’s a strong assumption. He needs a good qb
He just signed with the Falcons
In the leagues that you won money in were there stacks? Have you made the video yet analyzing your winning teams? I heard you mention it before but I haven't seen it yet.
That’s a really good question, also curious. Thanks Mason.
Did this last year with Lance and Aiyuk 😬
I cant argue with these numbers and I usually avoid stacking, so you have convinced me to try it more. That being said, couldnt you argue that stacking is also placing multiple bets in a way because injuries suddenly become even more devastating statistically?
Like lets say you stack Kelce and Mahomes, if either one goes down with a major injury it is going to have a huge impact on the ceiling of the other. In that example if Mahomes tears an ACL, you have almost no chance in your league because you bet so much on the Chiefs, wheras if you had drafted Andrews instead of Kelce, that injury only impacted one position and you could still find a way to perhaps win via QB streaming or trades, and you still have a top tier TE.
All my big winner teams were minimal stacked and were just drafted at value. But I understand the process. When people zig you should zag.
I drafted a Chase (rd1), Higgens (rd2), Burrow (rd4) stack this morning. Got Pollard as my RB in the 3rd and I think this is my best draft of the season so far. That Poodle 2 money is mine! Love the vids Mason.
Very common stack my friend. Keep drafting that money is mine 🏆
Oh boy your top two recievers are on the same team🤦♂️. Your just limiting your self by so much.
Stacking 2 receivers on same team is no good.
@@HangryD4D it's called correlation. Last year teams with Hill and Waddle absolutely smashed! Higgins is just pretty good tho.
That bye week going to hit hard😂
I remember watching your video about stacking last year. Paired Hurts and AJ brown and won my league. Thanks for the free money Mason keep up the good work we always look forward to new vids
I did that too lol, I also managed to trade for Tyreek somehow
Damn I missed that episode and took Herbert & m Williams
I had murray and dhop last year and it almost worked out
You can think of it as Expected Outcome and Standard Deviation. Stacking increases Standard Deviation (i.e. makes the tails fatter), but drafting out of order to create the stack lowers Expected Outcome (i.e. lowers Median)
Not always true though, you want some lineups that most won’t have because they don’t “reach” for players but they end up with closing line value we’ll above where they were being drafted at certain times of the year. For example: someone getting hurt in May and then their ADP jumping in August. You will probably never get certain combos in August that you could get now if you only use ADP as a drafting guide/structure.
Very interesting hypothesis for qb1 and wr1 numbers vs qb1 and wr2.
Nice and early to get it engraved in my brain. You da man, Mason!
❤️
To stack elite players you most likely have to draft them before there adp & that could hurt you when those players are on a bye week. In a 12 man league your bench players are most likely average. Need to rely more on the wire to get that win that particular week.
Imagine that, just finished a startup. Got fields at the 1.10, paired kmet in the 11th rd and Mooney in the 15th 😂
L
@@NobleVagabond2552 well my wr room is Ceedee, tee, jsn, Dotson, e. Moore, and Mooney. I think I’m doing ok with Mooney as my wr6
Thanks for sharing!
Love the video and agree for most part... but is funny you (and all stackers) say you don't want to draft the general.. you must draft outlier ... how do I prove this... don't look at outliers look at the general... but for best ball tournament styles it is a must to win the top, but for 12 and 10 team best ball with no tourney in 15-17 leagues this really doesn't matter ... argue if you want but you'd be wrong
I’m a huge Vikings and JJ fan. I think you had great content here. I’d like to add that JJ worst games of the year was in the playoffs, specially the champ game. And Kirk finished with 8 points so the two got 10 in the would be champ games. So I’m not shocked that those that stacked them last year didn’t win ( I had JJ in a ton of leagues and never stacked).
Just did a poodle, gambled on Houston Cj, Nico, Metchie, and Shutlz😢
No one better 🐐
Appreciate you 🐐
Thoughts on a Garrett Wilson and Breece stack and a Cooper and D. Watson stack? Seems to be my most common ones this year
Imo watson cooper njoku stack could be really good based off their ADP’s…Trevor Lawrence Calvin Ridley Evan Engram is another one that seems promising
@@maximilianschott3827 got the TLaw, Ridley, Engram with Cooper Kupp, Garrett Wilson and Josh Jacobs
Really good - the reason I lost my league last year was not bidding enough for kelce when I already had mahomes. Won’t make that mistake again. Lamar and Mark Andrews with a side of zay for me this year. The benefit of an auction is you can just go get your players
Agree that’s the best way to draft
My 10 man redraft team is insane this year:
Lamar Jackson
Breece Hall
Najee Harris
Ja’marr Chase
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Mark Andrews
Chris Olave
This team is insane bruh got the stack, three WRs with top 5 upside, and RBs who will be getting crazy volume if healthy.
What about drafting with bye weeks in mind is that necessary??
I usually don't pay attention to bye weeks. Sure, you'll have one bad week, but assuming your players stay healthy, you'll do well most other weeks.
Is this just mainly for best ball? Like have a stack in best ball makes sense because it optimizes the lineup and someone will likely score a touchdown. But having the 2 and 4 receivers on a squad seems hard to imagine a bump in winrate for redraft. Just curious.
Talked about that at the end
How would you anticipate stacking playing out in an auction draft where you don’t necessarily need to “reach” for a player as opposed to a snake draft where you are playing the waiting game? I would expect it to be more effective imo
Run the stats for Mahomes and Kelce, that's how I won last year 😊
This was going to be my plan for 2023
Especially with the late quality rbs
just had a thought, would a QB1 + RB2 stack be effective? if the lead rb goes down then the team will likely pass more and the backup running back will dominate rushing touches.
I mean at that point you’re pretty much “betting” on an injury. I don’t think that would be the most effective strategy
@@serendipitousslim1529 when it comes to running backs i'm pretty sure you can print money betting on injuries
and your info is all way to best ball based. handcuffing is great for weekly rosters as long as not reaching running backs get hurt for 3-6 weeks all the time and handcuffs save the entire season .. but glad you will make the viewers think they have to avoid all these concepts because everything is actually nuanced and easy to pick any of these Strats apart for better or worse with very plausible scenarios
I got to ask thoughts about my sleeper combo Lamar and OBJ combo?
You have flowers as wr2 in Baltimore over who? Bateman or obj?
I got destroyed last year when I got both Cupp and Kelce but stacked Stafford😂
Does this differ with stacking multiple RBs? I’d love to get Gibbs and Montgomery, or swift and penny.
One year, about two years ago, I read a stat that stuck out. Baltimore ran considerably more plays than any other team. I think it would make sense to find that out - which teams ran the most plays in 2022 and then use that as a stacking basis. What do you think?
Gotta use that metric with a grain of salt, the chiefs and dolphins probably don’t run as many plays but have high scoring offenses from shot plays
I’m 2nd pick in my families league and need some advice my family league has 6 points for qb pass td and my family always picks qbs first round. Should I change my strategy and pick mahomes/Allen/hurts with my first pick or stick to a Jefferson/Chase/CMC?
I am trying to get Chase, i offered waddle plus one of Ettiene, Pollard or Walker. My RB1 is Saquon and wrs are Waddle, AJ brown, Diggs, Dk ,jeudy, addison and flowers.
Is that fair trade, too much or not enough?
I feel you and you’re right but just a knock on the first example.. you don’t get Mahomes round 3. You just don’t.. hurts and Allen fall there but Mahomes pretty much never does. Adp of 20..
Basically don’t pass up elite talent to reach on a guy for a stack and instead get a good price on an elite player and get the buried in the depth charts guy way later on and bet on a collective unit to over perform expectations so you can get that on your team + the other elite guys with big years in the earlier rounds
I just joined Underdog and used your code. Dumb question... how do I know when drafts will start? None have times. It says when they fill, but do they just go off in the middle of the night? It seems impossible to time it so I'd be around for any of these. What am I missing?
I’ve only done a couple drafts this season but I’ve liked some of the cheap stacks that you can get this year. Took a Panthers stack in the late rounds in one draft and a Giants stack in the other for pretty cheap as well (other than Saquon). Hopefully it pays off
In one Best Ball Mania draft I got Fields, Roschon, D’Onta, DJM, Mooney, Claypool. And Tua and Waddle. Too much? Lol I didn’t reach on anyone they all kinda just fell to me that way. So fuck it we’ll see what happens.
If I’m able to do I get the diggs and Allen stack? Idk if it’s the right move
great video
Let’s go Mason
Let's go skzzs
One of your best videos! 💪
Thank you my man!
What day each week do they release the Roster for that Round? From New Zealand😂
should you stack more than once in a single draft? and how much
I’m in a redraft 12 team ppr I kinda want to stack burrow tee and chase I have chase I don’t think burrow owner will give him to me but is Tee/Chase viable?
what an amazing video wow
Thanks for all you do Mason, you are the FFB GOAT!
Drafted Lamar last season and managed to trade for andrews. It killed me honestly
Everything went wrong that year, both players got injured and never really recovered from it. If they never got injured we saw what they were doing early in the season (Lamar’s back to back 40 point games). It was just unlucky, volatility is to be expected with this strat so
"Maybe you made the bet the Indianapolis Colts would be better than expected, and you drafted JT and Michael Pittman"
:me doing the Leo meme:
FML.
Should I go Kincaid or QJ as the 4th pick in my non super flex rookie draft? I have Jets Conklin as my only other TE and plenty of good WRs
Kincaid as a consistent slot player could be a league winner this year. Both have tremendous upside but QJ has more completion for both targets and just to get on the field. Tough decision for sure tho good luck
What if last means you have to go out wearing Borat's bathing and buy everyone a round at your local bar and then sing It's Raining Men during karaoke?
I've been doing tons of mock drafts lately. Trying to make a big decision...
I can keep cmc or diggs
I've had cmc for years and honestly I fell out of keeper love. Idk if it's because of his injurys or because I had the combo wr QB format. Of diggs and Allen.
In my mocks I can get cmc Kelce and Allen... Or diggs RB or Kelce and Allen
What do you guys think
Diggs and Allen is amazing
Should I be stacking in a 12 team league with my friends? Some are more casual, but some are like me where we do research and stuff.
If you can stack a top QB/WR in a friends league where your getting more bang for your Buck in later rounds, 100%
@@TheBreakaway88 any recommendations? Been walking away in most mocks with Hurts but if you’re suggesting later rounds, Ridley and Lawrence come to mind.
@@hoodiearthur3306 Yea man I would actually love a lawrence ridley stack, if you reached earlier even a QB-TE of lamar and andrews earlier would dominate and you wont have to pay the friends price of kelce going top 10
@@TheBreakaway88 yea I have pick 4 this year so probably won’t be reaching that high on Kelce, but right on! Thanks man appreciate it!
any data on rb1/wr1 stacks?
There are definetly pros and cons to stacking
YESSIR! Greetings and Salutations
Appreciate you my dude 🫡
I got Josh Allen in the 3rd and Kelce in the 1st last season😂
Why did Dillon Francis come up at 13:53 ??? 😂
Is stacking as important in dynasty? Possible dynasty video?
Talk about this at the end!
Just finished, always thinking of every angle 🐐
I totally understand Masons philosophy of never start a rookie tight end, I am almost compelled to do so with Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo spent their first-round pick on a Travis Kelce type player, almost like if Josh said to his owners "I want one of those."
Stacking is massively overrated. Take whomever gets the most points and don't reach.
So is it ok to get Josh Allen, diggs, and Cook on a team?
As long as u don't reach on cook seems like a good stack
Bout to grab Olave and wait for Carr to drop to me later rounds.
Stacking is worse. You win by getting the best player at the best value. If you go back and look at tournament winners there really is not much stacking. You can just google them. Stacking only creates more risk for busting. Even when the data shows that it does not work people try to justify it still.
Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson stack almost cost me my championship last year when they shit the bed week 17 vs the Packers. Then Damar Hamlin died on the field and my league called the championship a draw
Hopkins released by the cardinals 😳😳
I took Kelce Diggs Mahomes! And then Schuster/Chiefs D as well lol a salty cheifs fan dropped DA so I picked him up too! GO CHIEFS!!
Dolphins going 17-0 so ill just take tua, tyreek, and waddle
Smart man
You'd be good at poker
Top 2 advance on underdog noob
Great analysis. I'm sure that changes everything
No more Hopkins Arizona 😳
DONT DRAFT CHRIS OLAVE if you want to win don’t draft him in round 2 like this clown
Great analysis
u have no idea what you’re talking about. you’re the clown bud
Wait, you profited $150k in best ball last year?
My hypothesis about the QB1/WR1 stack would be the injuries that affected multiple WR1s that ended people's seasons.
Kupp, Chase, Andrews (though I know he's a TE) are a few that come to mind.
hopkins released
Titans Offense not the best tbh
Last year, I picked JJ in Round 1 and KC in Round 8. I actually got first place in my league.
DEANDRE HOPKINS RELEASED
🐐
#1
First
🐐
First 🥳
2nd but who's counting 😉
🐐
Gonna have to watch this one multiple times 😅