Elizabeth Economy: The Future of Xi Jinping's China
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- Опубликовано: 7 май 2018
- Xi Jinping has created a new model of Chinese politics. He has taken unprecedented steps to consolidate his authority, has overseen the expansion of Communist Party’s role in Chinese political, social, and economic life, and has constructed a virtual wall of regulations to control more closely the exchange of ideas and capital between China and the outside world. Beyond its borders, Beijing has recast itself as a great power, seeking to reclaim its past glory and to create a system of international norms that better serves its more ambitious geostrategic objectives. Dr. Elizabeth C. Economy, C.V. Starr senior fellow and director for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, will join us to discuss Xi’s transformative reign, and how the United States and others should respond in order to protect and advance their own interests. Dr. Economy is a renowned scholar of Chinese domestic and foreign policy. She has published articles in foreign policy and scholarly journals including Foreign Affairs, Harvard Business Review, and Foreign Policy, and op-eds in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal, among others.
Dr. Economy is a frequent guest on nationally broadcast television and radio programs, has testified before Congress on numerous occasions, and regularly consults for U.S. government agencies and companies. She writes about topics involving China on CFR’s Asia program blog, Asia Unbound, which is syndicated by Forbes.com. In her most recent work, The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State, she analyzes President Xi’s dual-reform trajectories―a more authoritarian and controlling system at home and a more ambitious and activist foreign policy abroad―and its global implications.
Dr. Economy is also the award-winning author of The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future, and author of By All Means Necessary: How China’s Resource Quest is Changing the World with Michael Levi.
SPEAKER:
Elizabeth Economy
C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
MODERATOR:
John Pomfret
Journalist, Fulbright Senior Scholar based in Beijing, The Washington Post
For more information about this event please visit: worldaffairs.org/event-calenda...
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When it comes to China, everyone acts like an expert.
Thats a sign of importnace and respect. people spend the lives attempting to learn china
No, everyone acts like expert haters.
My responses to their questions
1. China's aggressiveness in SCS - Assertive but not aggressive.
2. China an ideological foe ? - China has never, in their official statements or even speeches by XJP and LKQ, talk about communist values. On the other hand, the US often talks on common democratic values. So who's being ideological then ?
3. Forced technology transfer - Many have called for US to produce evidence and put them to court cases but so far none.
4. More people get prosecuted under XJP - I prefer to see this as self-strengthening, not prosecution. Prosecution if China, impeachment if US ?
5. China's model a challenge to US - This I agree with Elizabeth. A challenge, not a threat.
6. US role in China-Taiwan issue - What is US role in China's domestic affair ? Is there a China's role in US domestic affair as well ?
7. Media manipulating China-US tensions - Indeed the media, especially Western media, always mentions China but not other claimants in the SCS issue.
8. China will become like the US in the long run - I don't understand why the US can ever think this way. A country getting liberal will turn an Asian into a White ? Laughable.
9. China acquiring German tech firms - I do agree it may be a cause of concern but then again the acquisition is between China and Germany hence the US has no basis to interfere.
For point #3, forced tech transfer does exist, however they are completely legal. The US knows they can't go to court over it, because China is playing by the rules. China happened to read the rule book and took advantage of everything afforded.
Ultimately it's because China is the only country (other than city-states) to truly make the jump from developing country to developed country. We don't have a problem with other developing countries practicing even worse forms of "unfair trade" because we're not threatened. Even the 4 Asian Tigers stagnated, although Korea could be argued is a success story.
point 8 : US being the biggest bully and forcing others countries to bow to US and eventually swipe those countries wealth to become US. Definitely, US have to think that way. US had been stealing the UK tactics in concurring the world using military power, and causing the UK super power to disappear. AS the result, they scare China will do the same thing. To be frank, China have no interest of other countries policy, what they want is to work hand in hand in building better life not only for Chinese but as a whole. It's totally different philosophy compare to US, who only want to steal others wealth to make American wealthy. This can be clearly what US had been done in the Meddle East where the world oil reserve at. The most recent is Iran case, where a false accusations and lies being slam on nuclear motive and trade sanction which WTO not agree on. So, US actually are acting like "Thief shouting and accusing the victim as Thief".
That is because you never listened to any of it or understood communist values
she should be more concerned of her country rather than of china
What’s wrong with being serious about eliminating corruption ?
She considered know a lots of China but basically she still does not understand Chinese people and culture, what a shamed!
as a chinese ,i have to say ,it's so sad to see the tendency of nowaday china.i heart about that president Xi is a strict leader who is not that magnanimous,i think it explains the anti corruption and the grapping of power activity.i think the good side of Xi's government includes anti corruption campaign ,anti poverty campaign,belt and road initiative,al these stategies is good for the situation right now in china,and gain lots of praise from people arround.as to the more and more conservative expression policy,it shows the government's will to maintain the social stability and XI himself's self consolidation of power,there are risks behind this policy tendency,and it shows the lack of flexcibility in the future.but more socially than economically.but talk about society stability the most important thing is economics.the trade war is going to begin although we still don't know how vast it will grow into,i think if it really become a real war scale,then it will strongly slow down the pace of made in china 2025,but the good side is we have to figure out the way of creating our own intellecture property,because as far as i know, in many area of core technology,in the companys belong to the government, bureaucracy is still heavily surpress the inovation energy. the relation between china and world is also a big problem.dispute such as south china sea ,taiwan-china relation,himalaya region,and more and more intensive competition among all the great powers,and the protectionism.they are the barriers we should cross.even though i really don't appreciate the more and more tightened speech enviroment and the risk of a full dictatorship,i still believe the bright future of chinese ethnicity,we are relatively rational we focus and we work on it really hard although the human rights in china is terrible from the west perspective,the society is still functional,but yes,there are potencial risks yet still the party will control and erase the danger,although sometimes it's really ruthless and cruelty........all in all ,chinese is a really pragmatic ethnicity,we will always figure our own way out ,no matter how much it will spend.
Cian Zeng Cheating, lying and deceiving is the character perceived by others about China. Pragmatic but without honor or anyone else’s respect. That’s why Taiwan is respected.
Any China watcher worth her salt would usually have a good grasp of what's going on behind the scenes as opposed to merely reading the headlines or scratching the surface. Any one of those Goldmanites that Liu He deals with have a better grasp of these nuances than Elizabeth Economy. Perhaps perched atop her ivory tower, she doesn't really know what's going on on the ground. Or she could be just be misleading others. Whether it's ignorance or disingenuity, scholars like Economy add little value to public discourse on our best options to deal with China.
Rude US losing on every front, now.
The US really just let everything go. 2008 was the year that the US fell apart and stepped backwards big times. The US continued with fighting wars.
This person is basically a US government spokesman and imperialist. She adds nothing new to the spiel we’ve already heard from so many other government talking heads.
In US, you can claims you are the expert even you are not. Look at their President Trump, always claim he is the smartest president, he is the richest man, etc. Let ask yourself, Is he right on what he claim? Lots of American are living in an imagination world. That's great for Hollywood movies ! but not in actual life !
Aww, you poor little butthurt CCP fanboy. You only want to hear positive views on your beloved dictatorship? Americans criticize their government and their leaders openly every single day, viciously. Try that against Xi Jinping and the CCP/PLA and you'll get disappeared. Now fuck off to your safe space if you can't handle different opinions that don't automatically applaud the CCP like you have been brainwashed to do since birth.
It is a pity we do not have someone like her who understands US govt that well. Amazed.
Prof. Elizabeth criticized the use of “battle” on the part of Xi on everything but conveniently avoided mentioning the Pentagon’s use of “war” and “choke points”. Battle deals with a specific problem, a de-escalating term compared to “war”, a global term. Xi’s term is definitely less belligerent and less hostile. Her choice of words reflect her hidden bias.
Why do most 'experts" on China say China is 'aggressively' militarising South China Seas but never consider the possibility that China is worried of the many US bases and military alliances that have always surrounded China, thus making it imperative to build up its naval capability to protect its sea borne trading routes?
yeah but i doubt China cares less about that, since they're in a process of building their own canal which will connect them to Thailand, and thus they don't need to use the South China seas, where US keeps monitoring their allies routes!
@Henry but you don't build anything you like in open waters, can you?
Don't waste your time, it is like morning coffee talk show!
Great listen.
I respect Elizabeth's observations (even after spending those years in China). However, those comments were simply too shallow (not sufficiently in-depth) and derogatory. Her comments especially on South China Sea has no real substance (incorrect) and pretty much ignored the facts in history. More importantly, I feel that her comments were meant (soothing) for the American audience. Try this Conversation session in China and check out the public Chinese feedback... !
Reference:
1. Dr. Martin Jacques, 2nd edition, "When China Rules The World".
2. Bill Hayton, 2014, "The South China Sea".
China has no fear. You can say what you like. Socialism will bury capitalism.
Likewise China should be cautious of USA Cisco, ATT and etc in China if ZTE and Huawei could access in USA
After the collapse of the USSR, Deng Xiao Ping kick-started economic development in China and ideological principle was subordinated to economic development. This was reversed late 2012, realpolitik and economics are subordinated to ideology. No-one among the experts seems to recognize this. Little wonder, if the experts say Chinese politics as a "black box" to them, because they don't seem see the important guiding role of this fundamental change.
fast forward to question
I am more curious of the future of Trump's America. These experts should focus more on this for their own sake.
Interesting analysis
Watching this 1 year later, so much has changed. China is in a much stronger position than anticipated. However listening to/reading Pepe Escobar 3 years later, it is still relevant.
What is the differences among President for Life, Dictator for Life, and King for Life?
Wow! The comments here suggest that Elizabeth Economy struck a nerve. Whenever you find such incensed reactions you know the person who evoked the uproar is on to something. She certainly has my attention.
Economy’s new book - The Third Revolution - is an insightful and thorough exposition of China’s landscape since Xi Jinping took power. This was a wonderful discussion, and we need to pay attention to Economy’s analysis and foreign-policy advice even if you disagree.
I was disappointed they didn’t tape the Q&A session.
Elizabeth Economy doesn't have that much credibility. I saw her performance on IQ squared and she has made many inaccurate assumptions on China.
China changes from minute to minute, so you can't rightly believe things you see one moment, and then be something else, of course ppl will going to be wrong! Plus you ain't an expert because you seen something once somewhere, its her own opinion as is yours your own too! Meaning an opinion!
Wish I could see the Q & A. Thanks anyway, great work, very informative. Keep up the good work🙏
Why all the hate in the comments? This was very interesting, and I didn't hear anything that contradicts stuff I've heard from other lectures, speeches, debates, discussions, etc.
Of China’s top 20 companies on Fortunes 2017 list, a full 17 of them, 85%, our state owned. No such thing as private in China. Add to that, Communist China has protectionist tariffs that dwarf Americas small tariff of 2% average, and even that’s only applied to half of manufactured imports anyway.
The usual western US） mentality and stereotypial way of understanding China. If one is serious about understanding China, and objectively too, watch Martin Jacques. Don't waste time on her.
Martin Jacques is also quite one-sided as well. It's important to listen to people from all angles. We don't have to agree; in fact, I vehemently disagree with Dr. Economy. But it's important to listen.
DR. ECONOMY, PLEASE TELL ME SOMETHING I DID NOT KNOW !
Thank you for letting me hear all the smart people.
When talking about politics in China, they start dreaming and guessing and believing in their false observation .
Yes, Yukon Huang has a much better view on China.
The talker didn't realize that the Chinese people are so stupid that they can hardly see anything wrong with the country....let alone their leaders.
I'd prefer we decouple with china. I know less money now but that will not kill us, we will find a better path to making money.
first you need to pay off the debt of money you borrowed from China, unless you want to sell a sizeable area of real estate, before you can pursue the lofty goal of dealing with someone else, I believe US burned too many bridges and pissed off many nations because of the way they trying to implement democratic government but also screwing up what isn't broken! Oh and stealing all the resources from that nation they invade!
I love this woman!
restating obvious events, your point is what.. help me get past this ordinary academic rant with ahistorical speech, so ordinary
If it comes from the Council on Foreign Relations - flush it down!
Her name is really economy, isn't it? She is also talking about economy. Really strange. But really liked the interview.
Here’s a Chinese perspective of the way things are. The Chinese think that the South China Sea is our backyard. It’s a nice Chinese-style garden. We share it with the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam. We’ve shared it peacefully with each other for the past thousands of years. America and the other western nations (a bunch of new-money “buffoons” from across town) come into this nice garden, colonize the smaller countries, annex the tiny ones, destabilize the region so badly that it leads to WW2. And now camps out in our backyard, maintaining regional stability. After 2008, China looks around and see bush fires sprouting out all over the USA’s own backyard. They see war and chaos in the Mid-East. And after years of biting their tongue and minding China’s own business, they start telling people that this isn’t healthy. That maybe the US should care more about their own backyard, and less about ours. Now, remember, when Hu was the head of state, China’s tone had always been: stop talking about ownership of the South China Sea, let’s develop the region together. But the US and their allies in the area just kept on pushing the issue. And let me tell something, the people in China was seething. This “expert” may have been surprised about Xi’s assertiveness in the SCS, but the Chinese people had been calling for such actions for years now. Same with the anti-corruption campaigns. China may not be the western liberal democracy with universal suffrage, but it’s not the oppressive evil Empire that the Western media and “experts” paint it as either.
Your guys are tools for plitics or scholars for truth
i will now go to NBA basketball I am entertained Go golden state warriors. they hopefully will win again with boogie
It is a state of competition with china, not a partnership.
Ehh so much vague ponderings. Not really any debt of knowledge or analysis. She only has a partial understanding of the basics.
You can buy technology and hire people but if their heart isn't in it......
Came across her name while reading Newt Gingrich's book 'Trump vs China'.
To get the US allies on board will take too long and will lead to a watered-down plan of action.
Very good talk! Dr. Economy is obviously a REAL expert on China (based on this video and many other videos in which she appears). However, she suffers the same problem as many other experts do: she talks a lot about China, but not about ourselves (i.e. the US), which is where the real problem exists: our failing political system. For more, read: "End of Democracy?"(econintersect.com/pages/contributors/contributor.php?post=201804272352)
Wonderful summary
Base on what ability can you write a book about China? Shallow perspective
Huum.......wishful thinking. Not true.........
What was that about Ebola? And why would China not want to fight it?
Why should China be engaged by US or the West? Why can’t China reach 40% of their semiconductor market and must leave 80% for foreign companies especial US companies?
Hello
Strength in numbers...the numbers of doormats US have are reducing.
PS: The "floodgates of heaven" will be OPENED [ a gamma ray burst will strike earth ] and only the nation with a strategic food suppy will survive decades of starvation [ Isaiah 24:18 & 28:18-22 ]. After earth's ozone layer heals, the survivors will spread abroad and inhabit the desolate, deserted cities [ Isaiah 51:6, 61:4, 59:18, 3:11 & 5:20-22 ]
first xi Jinping legacy is not revere today Is he a great person a socialist, opportunist, populist, capitolist, communist, ---i am entertained.
It's a opinion of one person.
China is for any business just a competitor, and as a business one must watch what and how are competitors are behaving.
There’s a lot of economic studies about why the US banks went bust in the past, but not many studies of actually what role China had in this.
It turns out that USA banks went bust because of the property bubble and the property bubble happened because of mass unemployment in USA.
It turns out that the mass unemployment in USA was due to manufacturing virtually disappearing. This disappearance was caused by China’s dumping products at a much lower price.
Trump has indeed a right to look over the fence and impose a brand new set of trade laws to protect his own country. China is no more Communist , in fact it has morphed into an out of control Capitalistic Dictatorship.
What a funny last name, haha
her observation is right but she should realize that all chinese changes to a more authoritarian regime is inevitable because china need to concentrate all sources to survive the repression of the only living superpower USA. If china survived, china would be another superpower while usa saw its sunset with nostalgia like the british empire did before. Anyway, most Chinese will dismiss her words as useless because the conflict between usa and china is bloodly inevitable.
没见识的人作为专家是个很可怕的事，所说的很多东西似是而非，比完全不懂更误导。一个完全自我中心的学者，在任何学科里都无法取得很好的成绩。一味用自我的框架去塑造心中的世界，而不是真正观察世界以便了解到底客观世界是什么，以及为什么。在此基础上的政策自然会错误百出
Economy
this lady knows what are on the surface but has no idea about Chinese community and people.
A China specialist who ever lives in China and gets to know China cultural and people. Typical.
Time is on China's side . China will improve year by year . Be patient .
USA do not seem able to be helping poor countries to develop properly with infrastructure development as compared to China . USA only have slightly advantage in high technologies area which is equally competed by Germany , Japan , UK ., Russia etc., This high technologies advantage is gradually eroded by more competitive countries . Hard truths for US citizens to digest . Nothing is forever . Change is a constant.
Or perhaps time is on the side of the USA. It is difficult for repressive regimes to last forever. China has plenty of internal problems which could result in levels of unrest unlikely in the USA. Likewise as China is now a World power with far flung interests, and a blue water Navy it is only a matter of time before China will be involved in having to use that Navy to defend its far flung interests. Such an occurance potentially could have nothing to do with the United States but would be a test for all to see on how well Chinese forces would function abroad. As China has openly stated it wants to develop a military force that can "fight and win" anywhere in the world, it is going to sooner or later be faced with such a possible scenario.
everything comes down to intellect, China has Stolen US tech , & Cannot compete with the list U of countries u have ! But tech changes quickly, So no , China cannot sustain its stolen IP. Now that US is demanding China stop their theft.
The Next aircraft that US develops .,will leave China's Stolen tech behind & the laser tech they have stolen have already improved ! Change will help USA because something that doesn't change is Genetic iQ. so the longer China waits it will lose any advantage from Tech they didn't have the intellect to develop, that they have now ! China can Never win, by stealing Tec. which is now basically outdated, China has been exposed & cannot steal coming developments & will therefore Lose.
I will remind U that US did not lose Vietnam, but withdrew,after killing 4 mill VC & loss of 55000.USA & allies,
USA WON every battle in the Vietnam war , China after the US with drawl Attacked Vietnam & LOST.No one in China Knew this fact,in my 25 visits to China.
USA has been at War constantly, Experience that China does Not have , China without the US, Lost to Japan in WW2. China has developed non of its own Tech , just copied US.inc Space tech. THEY will lose.
Keep in mind though China is by no means developing these infrastructure projects, within poorer nations, for free. Even though saddling those countries with debt would give China more leverage, this could very well lead to unforeseen consequences and strained relations between aforementioned nations. While the Chinese tend to think long-term, they can very well be a victim of their own success. As far as better technology, China has indeed been more and more resourceful. However, I would not go as far as to claim that they are on par with every nation. For instance, militarily, China still has a long way to go (see Russian and American equipment compared to the Chinese). Other nations are still capable of leapfrogging Chinese technology. Nevertheless, I’m happy to read that you are content with China’s progress, comrade (as a companion). :]
Lending money to poor countries knowing that they can't pay and take away part of their country and make it a military base isn't help. Check what China did to Djibouti, Pakistan...
China was a poor country helped by the USA. The CCP is coming back, and states it is going to assume it's rightful place in the world. China is becoming aggressive and domineering in their area of the world. China wants to negotiate. That is not the answer.We need to stop trading with China, unless we have appropriate tariffs of 25%, and work from there.
India is like most nations who want to turn to any Big Player for benefits hahaha
How stupid is buying property like a house in China if you are the ?owner for 70 years😭
Just purchased her new book
Would you ever hear a critical discussion like this in China available to all its citizens? Ideas, Innovation and Information ... the three I's missing from China's society.
I like her, she’s humble.
new born population this year only 10million in China What you guys think of this point in future
There are consequences in life. China is about to learn.
shallow
She saw the skin
When she was talking about Xi holding onto power for a long time, there is something that she should have mentioned. The Chinese develop long term plans e.g. China 2025 and it helps to have a stable leadership to manage those plans, western powers (IMO) are at a disadvantage because they have relatively short tenures and are unable to develop long term plans - Trump has for example completely undone most of what Obama achieved, and I am not saying what he achieved!!!
Very intelligent and well thought out.
You know its going to be an objective analysis of China when the comment section is full of half-thought through, canned state sponsored paragraphs.
This is very superficial.
That's not her real name.
Elizabeth is out of tach with china.
Did she live china?
Chine is going down bick time. I watch the prices in the store s here in canasa the food prices are currently up can food lighter cans are smaller and other products are of lower quality.
Many chinese are on he move ,
I watched it and veel sorry for the people. I love the chinese people's.
Weak !! Another
Kk
.
Excellent comments and analysis! Realistic and analytical observations.
P
Banana’s peel is more like it, in my forecast.
N
Such a great, balanced view. Thank you for the insight.
China is a huge market, yes, but pretty closed and not very welcoming
andyman sand not true. You dont see how many made in usa in china because you dont know the country and you have never been there. Starbucks is everywhere with the world’s largest starbucks store residing in shanghai. Iphones used to be the most popular Phones in china, and people would pay over the retail price to get them off the market. It’s also the biggest market for American cars. Well, the world loves german and japanese made cars way more, admit it. Its true even in canada. There are also many other american brands and companies in china. You say it’s closed in some industries, yes, like finance, insurance, and car making for example. Some of these need a 50 50 joint ventures.
China is more protective than America, for sure, as WTO officially recognizes china as a hybrid of developing and developed countries, but not totally developed as America. So protection and technology transfer from developed to developing are allowed by WTO on the official agreement. In terms of tech transfer, it’s actually “obligated” from developed to developing.
But i hear Americans’ concerns, especially trump government only offers partial information to the public, (the observation of china being relatively closed than America is, without the real “why”).
I personally think that America has kinda abandoned the manufacture industries overall, so there are less “made in America” anyway. Imagine there’s no more “made in China”. Do you honestly think you will start to see more “made in USA”? No. You will instead see more made in india, Bangladesh, vietnam, indonesia, etc. For lower end goods, and still the same made in japan and germany (and some northern european countries) for higher end and high tech goods. This is the reality.
Steve jobs wanted to keep iphones 100% made in america, but it was not possible as the infrastructure and labours weren’t readily available to him. What America is great about is innovations in California and Finances on Wall Street. Innovations dont necessarily yield made in America (as what i said about Apple), and finance is not a very value-creating healthy sector to even begin with, and generally way harder to penetrate in many countries. In terms of PE fundings, i think quite some chinese private firms go to the states for fundings, so in a way these Americans are the co-founders or partially the bosses to these companies through investments.
Back to the original statement of yours, i personally think the most legitimate way for US to fully open up china’s door is to argue formally through WTO that China is now a fully developed country.
India should easily move out of BRIC.
Fake news
Nothing interesting, only usual us imperial propaganda.
Interesting and I think quite informed discussion. I wonder why so many dislikes? Maybe lots of WuMao-s?
I am assuming there is a very strong, orginaized attempt to influence public opinion using RUclips Comment section????
Venezuela is a Chinese colony Now they own Venezuela's oil and soon Cuba,Nicaragua,Bolivia along whit all their lithium and many more central and South America countries including Mexico also just like Australia they are about to take over Canada,and also many more speccialy The whole African continent which is I don't know but might be 4 times bigger than China?😰
A lot of bullshit,