What if Prosperity Guardian Can’t Stop the Attacks on Shipping?
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- Опубликовано: 21 фев 2024
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Commercial shipping expert and host of the "What's Going on With Shipping?" RUclips channel, Sal Mercogliano, returns to discuss whether Operation Prosperity Guardian is actually deterring the threat posed by the Houthis and keeping the sea lanes open in and around the Red Sea.
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When you two old dogs team up it's always a great episode.
Salty dogs! 😂
Too much ass sniffing!
Sea dogs!
I saw the thumbnail and thought "That looks like a 'What's Going on with Shipping' Video" and I clicked and was happy to see it was SAL!
I was going to use the same image for my next episode...but I switched it up.
Some great crossovers here
I actually clicked on it thinking it WAS a WGOWS video. The joke was on me. 😂😅
They have been working together for a few months (IIRC) and it comes out great. Ward Carroll's guests are always top notch.
I cannot express my gratitude for your news update on going issues in that region of the world because of the lack of proper communication from the media, which does not exist.
Yeah, I appreciate getting a perspective from professionals that have been 'in the trenches', so to say, rather than just acedemic/ professional observers (as good as they can be) or even armchair analysts/ Monday morning quaterbacks.
Which media outlets are not covering this?
Yemen remains one of the hottest spots of the regional confrontation with the Houthis (Ansar Allah) targeting Israel-affiliated ships and others owned by the U.S. and the United Kingdom.
On February 18, the Belize-flagged cargo ship Rubymar was attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea. The attack caused catastrophic damage to the vessel.
Later on February 19, a Greece-flagged bulk carrier requested for military assistance following a missile attack in the Gulf of Aden.
The Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack, identifying the vessel as the Sea Champion.
They added that another vessel called Navis Fortuna was also directly struck.
On the same day, the Houthis shot down an MQ-9 Reaper combat drone of the U.S. Air Force over the Red Sea.
And on February 20, France announced that it shot down two Houthi drones over the Red Sea, while the U.S. Central Command announced the downing of ten other drones and a cruise missile targeting the USS Laboon.
The Houthis claimed that they attacked the southernmost Israeli city of Eilat and a number of American warships in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea with drones.
The attacks highlighted the failure of the American-British military campaign against Yemen. Dozens of strikes hit Houthi-controlled areas in recent weeks.
Yet, the group’s capabilities appear to be intact.
@@lsdzheeusi many, even most, are not covering this WELL... a thirty second blurb or a copy/paste job from the AP wire is not really 'coverage', imho.
We lost a lot when print journalism succumbed to the ease of the rapidly, homogenizing effects of the instant online dissemination of 'news', imo- there are few real pros left, I think, the people that went out and did the work to get 'the story/scoop, and the proper analysis that could be applied when the news cycle was more than fifteen minutes long. (Obviously, in the age of the three American networks, each with only 3o minutes to present the news, the quality was far, far higher- the cream rose to the top, whereas now, we are drowned in thin, inconsequential, rushed and poorly edited truckloads of news, as opposed to individual newspapers and nightly network news.
Ah, jeez, do I sound bitter? (Well, I AM! Lol...)
@lsdzheeusi the major media merely cover spots of the current situation.
Top notch discussion of this topic which has fallen out of U.S. news cycles. Thank you for discussing things in an in depth and forthright manner. Keep up the good work.
Bittersweet week with our second Naval flight officer retiring. "Ducky" a former VF-143 Pukin Dogs Tomcat RIO had his last day of work yesterday. He served with Mooch back in the "good old days". Former Skyraider pilot Ray "Horse" Collar finally tossed in the towel a few months ago. Godspeed to both of them in a well deserved retirement.
Am I understanding what you wrote correctly? How could someone retiring now have stick time on a Skyraider?
@@MM22966 Both left the navy and came and worked in a private sector company. We are an engineering firm and most of us are former military. Yes, Horse should have fully retired long ago but loved what he did. He was a Cornell university grad that understood aerodynamics like no one else I've ever met. Both his and Ducky's talents will be sorely missed.
I watched his What is Going on With Shipping? report on the Marlin Luanda a month ago and even though it's a half hour, like Ward's video's there's no way you can just stop watching.
We aren't projecting power; we're demonstrating power.
Demonstrations of power have been shown as being impotent in this region so many times, it has ceased to have any effect at all. No one fears the US Navy because everyone knows we'll hit a few dozen secondary targets, carefully avoid leadership and troop concentrations, then sail away after a month or two.
They have little to lose and everything to gain. Particularly Iran. They know we won't even hit secondary, insignificant targets of theirs. They act with complete impunity and have complete authority to increase aggression at will whenever they deem it beneficial.
I harken back to the video that Ward did summarizing the history of the region. The residents just don't stop fighting for whatever. Never have. Never will. The best we can do to mitigate threat is avoiding the area and economic sanctions. The lofty thinking that we can zoom in and fix ANYTHING in that region is misguided if you read history.
@@mikecrim5292 No, we can't fix anything there. We can alter the balance of power significantly though.
This is the regional powers' only true fear. That their individual place in that balance of power will be diminished. Iran is expanding it's power constantly over the past two decades. They'll only stop when they see those gains rolling back. There is a point where they'll beg to keep some of those gains and return to their corner.
Until then, they will continue to escalate and expand, with the aim of tipping the balance of power farther and farther in their favor.
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!
Remember that?
You guys are the Worlds Joke.
@@mikecrim5292they are intoxicated to fight or threatened by warlords that they will kill their entire family if they don’t fight.
A meaningful and permanent solution isnt about any type of "military power" anyways,.at lest not in the long term.
An escalation between the US and these Iranian backed Yemeni groups is as counter productive to US interest in the region as are, the disruptions in shipping have been.
Due to the fact that the American people arent ready to get involved and invested in another "forever war" in any Arab country .
America needs to shrug off our crazy zionist influencers and bring Israeli militarism in Gaza back under control because its THAT ISSUE which is the motivation for bad actors taking pot shots at global shipping in the Red Sea,.and NOTHING ELSE!
Sal is back! Very exciting! Thank you both for the update video.
I've been suscribed to both Ward's and Sal's channel for a good while. Happy surprise to see both commenting on this subject.
Two of my three favorite RUclipsrs: Ward Carroll, Sal Mercogliano (Now we just need an episode with Juan Brown!!!!!)
Either you fight to decisively win, or not - which is the current state. Playing defense will sustain the pain.
So, you're saying the other way to do it is to invade Yemen and see how much pain that brings?
@@GaniscolWho said invade?
This lesson will apparently never be learned.
@@slartybarfastb3648 OP heavily implied it.
Calm down Yoda.... do or do not... there is no try... ffs
Ward, I am not in the military, but my dad was. I would like you to know that I really thank you for the information. I think you are an awesome American.
On a positive military note, the US navy is getting great operational experience as the world leads up to the big one .
...and our AA systems are getting field tested in Ukraine without risking US troops. I think we're in a rare position to do things the right way right now, just gotta sort out Syria once and for all and we're good.
Missile too expensive, the lessons being learned aren't good
@@mrfarenheit9159 nothing is too expensive if you're the one printing all the money
Thanks for update-but you know as I do-the only military answer is to interdict the supply chain from Iran.
Exactly.
Everything else is acts of futility and pointless expenditures of weapons and funding.
Head of the snake.
And how would that go down, politically? With impacts to the situations with Ukraine and Taiwan? It’s a problem because the answer isn’t that clear.
Another great collaboration by two excellent RUclips experts- Thank You both!
Sal is a history professor and a mariner... Ward is a... um... didn't he used to sit in the back seat on his ipad or something? ha
I really like the new USS Gerald Ford hat, Ward. A nice pick up from your tour…👌🏼
Agreed, Sal's channel is as good as Wards & vice-versa. Both interesting as can be. Lots to be learned.
It's surely gratifying to see 2 of my favorite analysts working together!!! It's as good as when Ward and Rick Beato combine forces.
2 of my favorite channels together, ❤
As someone who has watched both of your channels since their beginnings, I am a big fan of the collaboration between you and Sal Mercogliano.
As usual, another great episode to keep us informed as to what the situation is in the middle east.
Great collaboration with you two. Great insight.
Sal is a delight to listen to. Many thanks.
Ward and Sal, two of my favorite RUclipsrs.
Great video, clear and knowledgeable
At first glance I always read it as “Prosperity Garden” 😂
do they serve salad :)
@@markburton5292 endless soup and breadsticks
😂😂😂
I would crap myself laughing if they actually named it that.
@@MrTaxiRobJust DON’T ASK ABOUT THE APPLE TREE!
Cool heads and calm voices providing responsible, well considered, and thought out discussion on topics at hand from a professional and informed point of view is so REFRESHING! Keep it up “MOOCH”!
I cannot imagine what Measures of performance/measures of effectiveness could possibly show this is working. Having been on the Aegis ships and the CVNs-This is unsustainable. If the Burke used the CIWS as reported they were close to getting hit. Further those SMs are not unlimited. All the gear will need maintenance sooner than normal (to include aircraft).
Really insightful. Thanks for continuing to share valuable information.
Simply great analysis of this subject by two sublime commentators. No spin, no clickbait, no shortcuts (it takes as long as necessary unlike the news channels).
Very informative episode. Thanks for it fellas!
I’m waiting on Ward and Sal to have a collab on the Forrestal fire using his expertise in that area.
There also shouldn’t be any Iranian flagged or owned cargo vessels still afloat.
That would be an interesting video!
Thanks for the update and the analysis with Sal 💯
I’m inordinately excited about this mashup
Good to hear mines finally mentioned.
I love seeing Sal on other channels. I remember when he had 5k subs.
Howdy from a viewer in south Texas! Wow. Always insight from professionals - no media shock nonsense. Really appreciate folks like yourself and Sal putting the effort into sharing your expertise with us. JB
There are very few channels I can look to that provide interesting and more important, accurate news and information. Your channel Ward Carroll, is one of them. Thank you, Cmdr. Carroll for all your hard-hitting reporting.
Thank you gentlemen, super informative as usual.
Thanks for the update Ward.
Love seeing you guys together. 2 of my favourite channels!!!
Nice! This made me discover this Ward channel too. Keep the shipping news coming!
Hah! Here I'd commented on Sal's channel wanting an update, as info. has been lacking the last few days, and here it is! Much new info. from both of you!!
It seems to me that if the Houthis can dry up shipping through the Red Sea, etc., a blockade to intercept supplies to them is warranted. This especially when it is evident even people like those in Sudan are adversely affected by the attacks on shipping. The military question is whether we are willing along with our allies in this to send many ships to do the interdictions. We (allies) certainly have those ships, but since they generally won't have great AD, we, France, India, etc., will need to defend the blockade with capable warships like our Arleigh-Burke destroyers, along with continued efforts by all resources to suppress fire from the Houthis. This would be quite a substantial operation!
The other alternative is to change that cost-benefit ratio for Iran, to something they don't like at all. The history is that when forcibly confronted by superior force, they back down. But, the question is whether we and our allies have the stones to do this.
Lastly, I continue to be of the opinion that "defending Gazans" is just the cover story. Maybe some Houthis actually believe it. But what's going on here is economic warfare by Iran to crash its enemies economies. The mullahs intend to eventually convert, enslave, or destroy all infidels. Present allies of theirs get a pass for now. Read the Quran, even toward the end... Do the mullahs say of those passages, "well, that doesn't really mean what it says" or "that's superceded by...*"?
*(Like Jesus' teachings being the final word on things, for real Christians.)
We cannot shrink away from recognizing the mullahs' intentions... 😞
New episode dropping today on What's Going on With Shipping.
missiles are very expensive, and the allied nations have suffered economic decline. if we want to keep using the canal, then either Egypt must apply some political pressure to protect its interests. the effect of disrupting shipping has succeeded wildly. the fact that chinas ships are not being attacked should tell us that a diplomatic solution may exist. either that or maybe connections should be investigated...
this is ultimately the point of gaza not being helped more as well i beleive - it is a perfect thorn in the side, a wedge between allies. draining blood & treasure. costing political capital every day...
Two of my fav youtubers together! Great episode, Mooch!
My favorite crossover episodes on youtube! Great stuff guys
Two of my favorite RUclipsrs, Thanks for the update gents!!!
I was waiting for this discussion. Very informative.
Excellent job, gentlemen
The Battle of the Atlantic wasn’t lost just because the U-boats still sunk ships sailing in escorted convoys. Earnest Will wasn’t a failure because a couple tankers still went up. We didn’t win prior wars because we were perfect; we won because we had the will to outlast our opponents.
By no account are we actually losing in the Red Sea either. Before the crisis began, the Bab al-Mandab Strait saw roughly 55 transits a day (20000/year). Only about 40% of that traffic has diverted per CENTCOM, and it’s only after 5.5 months and nearly 50 attempts that the Houthis actually succeeded in sinking anything. Even if we unrealistically assume trade volume dropped by 40% immediately (it didn’t), *there have been over 5500 safe transits of the Bab al-Mandab Strait since October 7th.* We can’t protect all trade, but we’ve protected a hell of a lot.
The modern “no failure allowed” expectation of our military is the single most poisonous effect of the Peace Dividend and GWOT. It disincentivizes transparency from the Pentagon, and scares people away from doing what needs to be done simply because it’s hard.
Two of my favourite guys together! Outstanding!!
One of the very best episodes I've seen on RUclips. Depth of knowledge about shipping was astounding, especially when considering we mostly hear from or about politicians! At least I hope they listen too.
The UN are operating in Yemen essentially providing food to the population (the last bulker hit was actually heading to Aden carrying food aid) similarly food aid for Sudan is seriously impacted.
The houthi don't care for the civilian population in Yemen or the Horn of Africa....
The Houthi are operating on orders from Russia and Iran. The Houthis do what their benefactors order them to do. Just as Hamas and Hezbollah do.
NOW do you understand the purpose of terrorism? The one goal is all that matters. It worked for Sinn Fein.
Great episode, Ward! First you have Rick Beato on, then you bring on Sal. If you every bring on Juan Browne, I'm going to declare you a stalker. ;o) Keep up the fine work, we all really appreciate it.
An interesting point was brought up that the U.S. Navy's first job was to protect American commercial shipping. Good conversation Sal is a very informative man.
Thanks, Ward.
Thanks for the update.
Inconvenient truth is that this is the end of naval dominance. With the advent of long-range missiles and drones, land powers can now compete with traditional naval superpowers like USA and UK (at least asymmetrically)
Bingo.
Great team up! Two men who know their stuff! Thank you both.
No way! You know sal!?
Sals my dawg
Sal is awesome, and I follow him. Great info and insight to the shipping side of things.
At this rate, the destroyers are going to need 400 missile cells on their ships
to keep up with the rate at which the Houtis are popping things off.
And to think how the US Navy is planning to make Frigates with a mere 32 missile cells.
That amount of missiles will only stop 1 salvo of missile/drone attacks
Precisely what Russia and Iran are counting on. We can't supply Ukraine what we need ourselves.
@@slartybarfastb3648 As much as the Russians are thugs, they do put real firepower on their ships
unlike the current generations of ships, the Navy has been rolling out for a while (cough cough LITTORAL)
2 pods of short-range (3 miles) air interceptor missiles and a Phalanx CIWS (1-2 mile range) and they call it a Warship!
Nice to have you both on again. MAHALO gentlemen.
Always love seeing Sal. He's always got the goods.
I’m freaking out!! Huge fan of Mooch!! Then Sal shows up?! Amazing! Thanks guys!
Well done!
Is it well known knowledge that the Iranian spy ship was taken out by cyber attack? I had not heard that. Neither have I seen anywhere that the Rubymar had to be abandoned by her crew. I doubt that many Americans know any of this. Excellent discussion with Sal, an obvious expert.
Guess Iran got pay back on American cell networks.
Yemen remains one of the hottest spots of the regional confrontation with the Houthis (Ansar Allah) targeting Israel-affiliated ships and others owned by the U.S. and the United Kingdom.
On February 18, the Belize-flagged cargo ship Rubymar was attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea. The attack caused catastrophic damage to the vessel.
Later on February 19, a Greece-flagged bulk carrier requested for military assistance following a missile attack in the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack, identifying the vessel as the Sea Champion. They added that another vessel called Navis Fortuna was also directly struck.
On the same day, the Houthis shot down an MQ-9 Reaper combat drone of the U.S. Air Force over the Red Sea.
And on February 20, France announced that it shot down two Houthi drones over the Red Sea, while the U.S. Central Command announced the downing of ten other drones and a cruise missile targeting the USS Laboon. The Houthis claimed that they attacked the southernmost Israeli city of Eilat and a number of American warships in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea with drones.
The attacks highlighted the failure of the American-British military campaign against Yemen. Dozens of strikes hit Houthi-controlled areas in recent weeks. Yet, the group’s capabilities appear to be intact.
When are we getting Ward a Hawaiian shirt?
😀
So Wise , Thank You .
Commander, excellent and very realistic. It follows with what the Brtish academic pointed out in her briefing on the Houthis.
Ward and Sal what a great team
Just a small correction. MV in front of the ships name stands for Motor Vessel not merchant vessel. Just as SS stands for Steam Ship and NS Savannah stands for Nuclear Ship Savannah.
It's both. Thx.
Very well done. Thank you.
Wow! Quite the interesting roll-up.
I watch both these guys, great to see them together!
Love the British Steel shirt.
Knew it was JP couldn't recall the album title
Thanks. Very informative!
My favourite two experts, Ward and Sal, these guys are excellent to follow, Love the content and subscribed to both 🍻🇨🇦👍
Thanks, Mooch and Sal!!!!!!! 🇺🇸
Cool! My two favorite subject matter experts talking about this serious matter.
Great info as alway!!
Great British Steel shirt.
Two awesome and knowledgeable experts in ONE video? It's like Christmas in February!
I think you should provide a bit more context/information about Operation Aspides, which is a really significant development from the EU side. Five EU countries (Italy, France, Germany, Belgium and Greece) are currently involved, with the first four providing naval and air assets. The Aspides headquarter is in Greece, but the commander at sea is an Italian Admiral (Stefano Costantino), and the flagship is an Italian Destroyer, Nave Duilio, which is every bit as good (arguably better) than HMS Diamond for this kind of operations. I addition to Duilio, there is German Frigate Hessen (another AAW destroyer in all but name), one Belgian Frigate and the two French FREMMs. The close coordination with Atalanta means that additional assets are available if needed, including ITS Martinengo (by the way, Atalanta is also under Italian command). Aspides is still gathering strength, and has air assets available among other things. The naval assets are vastly superior to what the UK currently has in the area, so the emphasis you place on UK participation seems unwarranted. Aspides and Prosperity Guardian are in close coordination, but it is no longer the case that French frigates are operating exclusively under the US overwatch - this may well explain the change of heart by CMA-CGM. The strategy and tactics that Aspides will employ remain to be seen. The only sure thing is that they will not do the kind of strikes that we have seen from US/UK. They may provide reinforced overwatch together with the US and run small frigate-led convoys or something else altogether.
Well, to be fair the French never operated under the USA’s watch. The French made clear that they kept the chain of command on their assets and that if a French ship would help in prosperity guardian it would need the French command’s approval. They never operated under US command, and every nation should do the same, never give command of your national assets to another country.
@@brunol-p_g8800 As I wrote, the French have already put their naval forces under EU command. The commander at sea is an Italian Admiral, and the second in command is a French admiral, the idea being that they will swap in about a year. The French are clearly annoyed with this arrangement, and they never mention it in their official notes, while they always mention the overall Greek command (on land and rather far away). I suspect it came down to whoever had a Horizon-Class destroyer ready and available. The Italian Air Force is also contributing with a CAEW plane. Overall, this is a rather impressive display, all new multifunctional units whose design envisaged this type of deployment.
Love these guys. What subject matter experts they are. Cheers gents!
It's Sal!! Love these crossovers!
Thanks mooch
Sal is the man!
This is a textbook asymmetric warfare case, where a small and hidden enemy with limited capability using terrain to their advantage and tie down a superior adversary with greatly firepower.
You continue to give me a look into a whole world I never had any idea about. In 1971 the draft would not take me due to a knee injury in high school football. To be honest it was the ending few years of Vietnam and friends coming back had horrifying stories of what they were not allowed to do to defend their camps and buddies so I was not disappointed. Had I been a few years older I would have faught for the USA but...well old news. Since then I had no idea the level of actual fighting that has been going on and the effort being put out in our defence. You have given me a whole new insight into what the roles and stresses and courage and heroism that goes on daily to keep not just the US safe but the whole western world. Your career in the military may be over but you are still doing a great service to our country for those who will listen. Thank you
Thanks Ward and Sal Mercogliano......Shoe🇺🇸
I love “Ask Sal”!
Awesome! Two of my favorites!!
Thank you Sirs....
LOVE the British Steel shirt, bravo.
This was awesome!
Sal! Bravo Ward & Sal!
Is there any OSINT available regarding the tanker in the Red Sea that is suspected of being an Iranian controlled ship that is presumably passing targeting information/ general intel to the Houthis that are attacking ships in the Red Sea?
I've only seen a few bits about it, and no decent analysis - can we get an update?
Cheers (this is another good vid, btw)
Sal speaks to that.
Great point !
@@WardCarroll
Ok cool thanks. I think that may be a... touchy point in this escalating conflict. (What counts as a combatant, who (nominally) owns the vessel, and how is it flagged, what are the nationalities of the crew, etc... A complicated situation, eh?
I have heard a lot of 'Praying Mantis 2.0!', 'Rock the Casbah!,' kind of talk- possibly reckless and an obvious oversimplified perspective at this point, imo, especially given the whole region's currently presumed instability (vis. Hezboallah, the Saudis, Qatar's ties to Iran vd. US bases there, an unwillingness to backtrack on recently (semi)stabilizing agreements and renewed diplomatic relations (Iran/Saudi/Qatar/lebanon, precarious isreali-jordanian-egyption goodwill, regional religious, economic, ethnic, and demographic, schisms, etc, etc).
It's a big 'ol very complicated and complex mess. But, when has the middle east been otherwise?
🤔🤔🤔
@@WardCarroll-When will the Navy allow you to reply to the complete breakdown of US and Israeli intelligence that allowed Hamas to attack Israel which led to all these issues? Hamas was training for months or years out in the open to be able to carry out the attack. We have so many intelligence agencies in the US and spend over $100 Billion each year to stay out in front of things like this. A complete failure is what it was.
7:50
Sal is the Man!!!
A Parrothead and a Campbell Camel, I like this guy.