@@flipacoin3593 Such a great question... and sometimes it's hard to know what will happen until we look backwards after it's happened. IF values in other provinces stall and decrease to the point where the equity they thought was there, isn't anymore, that could probably cause more people to stay put than the interest rates... what do you or others think?
If you have the feds and the mayor coming together to build homes and adding inventory I would definitely wait it out, there is a correction around the corner don't fall into the trap
@flipacoin3593 You're missing another key element, Job losses, no one can afford to buy or own if your out of a job, check out what BMO posted today, I'd say we are in an everything bubble that is going to burst.
Many great points. Here the bottom line: •Calgary R/E remains affordable relatively speaking. Relative matters to other major cities like TO, VAN, MTL, OTWA. BULLISH •months resale supply is only about 1.5 months. Super low. BULLISH •demand is off the charts due to intl and inter provincial migration. BULLISH •interest rates are currently punitive, although this is shifting CDNs demand to lower priced, more affordable markets. BEARISH for high prices markets; BULLISH for cheaper markets. •new supply is coming but won’t make a dent compared to demand - not by a long shot. BULLISH •a recession likely for 2024 which may pause the market but won’t crater it in Calgary. BEARISH •if a recession, job losses coming but because energy companies have already cut the fat and are basically debt free, they will withstand whatever recession with fewer job losses/structural headwinds. NEUTRAL Overall, BULLISH looking out 2-5 years.
@@CJ-le6pe I’d have to agree with all of these. However the higher priced market still could see momentum as locals who have more equity could be moving up more if they are in a good position. 🙌🙌🙌
Great video some feedback: 9.1 per every house built. I understand your grander point, however, what would be more interesting and more nuanced to see is the proportion of new movers (or existing population within Calgary) that are either renters or home owners. I don't think that all movers would be purchasing a home so the 9.1 per every house built could actually be a smaller number, since we need to figure out the proportion of people intending to buy a home rather than those renting long term. If the rental vacancy is low, but rental prices are increasing, it would also be very interesting to see, if the status of first time home ownership is actually rising, this can give an idea of movement from renting to owning. At the same time, a time series chart showing if 'moving rates' among home owners (owners either upgrading or downgrading) would be increasing or decreasing, especially in these times (rising rates, or lowered rates). This could give somewhat another insight into the rate of supply. If rate of supply is low, interest rates decreasing in the future, foreclosure rates very low, population increasing (regardless of renters vs buyers) AND if the above indicators such as increasing first time home buyers, and moving rates decreasing (meaning less supply) - my hypothesis would be that these indicators would lead to an increasing in housing prices in the future. BUT who knows, this would be my short term speculation.
i still remember one of the videos u posted about a year ago, one person commented from outside of alberta saying that the market here would crash...so i am believing that you are right again this time for your prediction. trust the data !! another great video!
Alberta is still much cheaper than ON/BC. Sell a townhouse you bought from ON/BC 10 years ago might gives you 800k to 1 million cash, which is enough for you to buy a nice detached house and a car without any debt. As for finding a job here? Well they can wait a bit, enough cash in pocket.
@@dovygoodguy1296 People won't know and won't care, they will come and figure it out. It's expensive to move and most of them will stay and survive since they can't afford to change cities again.
When interest rates start to come down, how soon do house prices react? Is it instant, weeks, months? I'm saving for my first house but I'm worried I won't be ready soon enough and inerest rates will come down, prices will shoot up and I'll be priced out of the market. I think I'll have enough saved up in 2 years at the soonest. I'm sure interest rates will have started coming down by then.
Morning David. Yes, in two years we could see interest rates coming down. But nothing is for certain. When they start dropping, there will be a delay as I think buyers and sellers will want to ensure the market is going to stay there. If you’re saving up for more of a detached house, maybe it may make sense to get into the market now on lower priced product so that when increases happen you can ride that up? You’d have to be careful what you’re buying as you don’t want to buy in a bad condo building or something but there could be an option.
A lot of Ukrainians who have been told that Vancouver is the best place, now, are moving to Calgary. It's interesting that their preference is still Vancouver and Calgary with less favor to Toronto.That explains high numbers in population raise.
As someone who lives in calgary, PLEASE MOVE TO LIKE EDMONTON OR SOMTHING BC I LIVE IN A BASIC NABOURHOOD AND 4 YEARS AGO IT WAS 350,00$ TO LIVE HERE NOW THE AVARAGE HOME IS 850,00$
Kind of hard to imagine prices continuing to go up with over 60 recommendations are planned to be implemented by the city (suggested by experts) including to switching to RCG zoning, (per year) building an additional 1000 market homes, 3000 non market homes, and adding Atleast an additional 400 basement suites to name a few. Do you think this will lower prices? Commented on a previous video with no response, hoping to get your opinion. Thanks
I'm not a expert but will throw in '2cents ' regardless what you thinking property prices will not go down from where they are. They can stabilize from where they are to the future. But still year over year will be going up, might be 1% 2 % 3 % . Just like buying steak today paying $30 per one,do you think they will go down in the future? I don't think so.
@@jozefciszewski2074 thank you for the reply. I constantly hear about how we have record low levels of inventory so in my opinion increasing the amount of market homes certainly helps with the low inventory. Also an additional 3000 per year non market homes would make it so rents would need to be more competitive. On the side of zoning, the proposed changes would make it so many more homes could be built much faster. No I don’t think prices will tank, but I’m sure people that over bid due to shortage will get burnt as new homes will be built in all communities and in all shapes and forms. This of course is my opinion and was hoping to see the side of somebody involved in the market. The last 3 days of city council has really addressed a lot of issues and came up with a lot of solutions.
Love this convo, and truth be told I haven’t read the news of what came from the city council meetings yet. I think we have swung so far in one direction of people planning moves here that the changes could … maybe… bring stabilization. But that’s a big maybe. Reason being you have to still look at how many people are fed up with unaffordable situations else where who have friends and family that all have made the move and are LOVING it here. There’s a lot going on here in our market with so many variables so it’s truly hard to fully predict where everything will go, but what we can look at is what is happening and how these things can impact our city.
Labour will be a bottleneck to any city of Calgary zoning of building policy changes made thus limiting immediate new supply of homes. Still bullish despite a mild recession coming in 2024
The rental situation is geared only to young people willing to live in some small sardine box in a downtown skyscraper for $200-3000 a month. Young singles or young couples. The rest of us are basically screwed. Especially older people.
Earlier this summer I was thinking if I waited, house prices would come down. But based on everything I’m seeing… really feels like a new normal has been set. I think the baseline has moved up.
I agree. I make 6 figures and most of my friends do as well and are DINKs and they are worried about losing their place on renewal and plan to sell and buy smaller in the next 2 years when their mortgages come up.@@stephenn88
Which city will be good to go in terms of part time jobs and accommodation for international students in 2024 ? Can you mention a few ? And what about edmonton?
I'm in the boat of owning a condo with a mortgage renewal coming up next year, and I'm considering selling depending on what the new mortgage price would be. Does anyone know enough for a napkin calculation of how a monthly payment of about $1300 (condo fee separate) might change if the interest rate went from 2.7% to something like 5%? If not, does anyone at least know if it'd be closer to $2000, $2500, or $3000+? I'm just not sure what doubling the interest rate does to a monthly payment.
@@ChamberlainGroup oh, you guys would be able to calculate/estimate that with information I could provide? I was planning on reaching out to bmo to get the number and then I was going to reach out to you guys about potential options 😅. But if you guys are able to do that, then I'll just reach out to you. Thanks!
@@dovygoodguy1296 first off I don’t see a bubble in Calgary. And secondly that really depends on your situation, what you owe, how much cash, job situations and more so it’s not a simple answer. If you want help creating an exit strategy for you, we can get granular over here www.chamberlaingroup.ca/contact/
@@ChamberlainGroup which is better in terms of growth/rental yields? Will the hike in interest rates cause any major changes in price as expected in GTA
@@usamahameed62 not all your answers are in here but you may find insights Moving from Edmonton to Calgary - 2024 ruclips.net/video/9upumUeuxUc/видео.html
What are you biggest concerns about this market in Calgary that we can help answer in future videos?
@@flipacoin3593 Such a great question... and sometimes it's hard to know what will happen until we look backwards after it's happened. IF values in other provinces stall and decrease to the point where the equity they thought was there, isn't anymore, that could probably cause more people to stay put than the interest rates... what do you or others think?
If you have the feds and the mayor coming together to build homes and adding inventory I would definitely wait it out, there is a correction around the corner don't fall into the trap
@flipacoin3593 You're missing another key element, Job losses, no one can afford to buy or own if your out of a job, check out what BMO posted today, I'd say we are in an everything bubble that is going to burst.
Many great points. Here the bottom line:
•Calgary R/E remains affordable relatively speaking. Relative matters to other major cities like TO, VAN, MTL, OTWA. BULLISH
•months resale supply is only about 1.5 months. Super low. BULLISH
•demand is off the charts due to intl and inter provincial migration. BULLISH
•interest rates are currently punitive, although this is shifting CDNs demand to lower priced, more affordable markets. BEARISH for high prices markets; BULLISH for cheaper markets.
•new supply is coming but won’t make a dent compared to demand - not by a long shot. BULLISH
•a recession likely for 2024 which may pause the market but won’t crater it in Calgary. BEARISH
•if a recession, job losses coming but because energy companies have already cut the fat and are basically debt free, they will withstand whatever recession with fewer job losses/structural headwinds. NEUTRAL
Overall, BULLISH looking out 2-5 years.
@@CJ-le6pe I’d have to agree with all of these. However the higher priced market still could see momentum as locals who have more equity could be moving up more if they are in a good position. 🙌🙌🙌
Terrific information! Thanks for the great video!
Glad it was helpful! Thank you for watching and commenting
The way you analyzing the market data is amazing that infills tremendous amount of info!
You’re welcome and thank you for taking time to comment. If we can ever help you or your friends with transaction just let us know. Appreciate it! 🙌
Great video some feedback:
9.1 per every house built. I understand your grander point, however, what would be more interesting and more nuanced to see is the proportion of new movers (or existing population within Calgary) that are either renters or home owners. I don't think that all movers would be purchasing a home so the 9.1 per every house built could actually be a smaller number, since we need to figure out the proportion of people intending to buy a home rather than those renting long term.
If the rental vacancy is low, but rental prices are increasing, it would also be very interesting to see, if the status of first time home ownership is actually rising, this can give an idea of movement from renting to owning. At the same time, a time series chart showing if 'moving rates' among home owners (owners either upgrading or downgrading) would be increasing or decreasing, especially in these times (rising rates, or lowered rates). This could give somewhat another insight into the rate of supply.
If rate of supply is low, interest rates decreasing in the future, foreclosure rates very low, population increasing (regardless of renters vs buyers) AND if the above indicators such as increasing first time home buyers, and moving rates decreasing (meaning less supply) - my hypothesis would be that these indicators would lead to an increasing in housing prices in the future. BUT who knows, this would be my short term speculation.
I think we should hire you for data analysis and research. 🧐 great ideas here.
Always awesome, great approach sharing your analytics, great stuff!
You’re welcome. Appreciate you watching and being apart of the community
Technical observations tell us that Calgary housing market is and will be bullish.
Agreed.
i still remember one of the videos u posted about a year ago, one person commented from outside of alberta saying that the market here would crash...so i am believing that you are right again this time for your prediction. trust the data !! another great video!
Yes. Data doesn’t lie. When you use data combined with emotional intelligence it can give great insights.
The current picture is so depressing. People have to stop moving to Alberta. I don't think Canada can survive two years until another election.
Canadians will continue to die after the said election.
Alberta is still much cheaper than ON/BC. Sell a townhouse you bought from ON/BC 10 years ago might gives you 800k to 1 million cash, which is enough for you to buy a nice detached house and a car without any debt. As for finding a job here? Well they can wait a bit, enough cash in pocket.
@@Saturn7747 Alberta does not have sufficient infrastructure to accept so many people. Not in health care, not in housing, nothing.
@@dovygoodguy1296 People won't know and won't care, they will come and figure it out. It's expensive to move and most of them will stay and survive since they can't afford to change cities again.
@@Saturn7747 Specifically young singles and young couples.
When interest rates start to come down, how soon do house prices react? Is it instant, weeks, months? I'm saving for my first house but I'm worried I won't be ready soon enough and inerest rates will come down, prices will shoot up and I'll be priced out of the market. I think I'll have enough saved up in 2 years at the soonest. I'm sure interest rates will have started coming down by then.
Morning David. Yes, in two years we could see interest rates coming down. But nothing is for certain. When they start dropping, there will be a delay as I think buyers and sellers will want to ensure the market is going to stay there.
If you’re saving up for more of a detached house, maybe it may make sense to get into the market now on lower priced product so that when increases happen you can ride that up? You’d have to be careful what you’re buying as you don’t want to buy in a bad condo building or something but there could be an option.
A lot of Ukrainians who have been told that Vancouver is the best place, now, are moving to Calgary. It's interesting that their preference is still Vancouver and Calgary with less favor to Toronto.That explains high numbers in population raise.
As someone who lives in calgary, PLEASE MOVE TO LIKE EDMONTON OR SOMTHING BC I LIVE IN A BASIC NABOURHOOD AND 4 YEARS AGO IT WAS 350,00$ TO LIVE HERE NOW THE AVARAGE HOME IS 850,00$
This guy is the Canadian version of Walter White.
Like in breaking bad? 😂
@@ChamberlainGroup Yeah that one. Just need to find a Jessy Pinkman for a business partner lol.
😂
That's what I thought too when I saw the thumbnail!
@@Mrandyol 😂
Background music is too loud brother. Great video still
Thanks for the feedback and stopping by. Appreciate the comment too!
Kind of hard to imagine prices continuing to go up with over 60 recommendations are planned to be implemented by the city (suggested by experts) including to switching to RCG zoning, (per year) building an additional 1000 market homes, 3000 non market homes, and adding Atleast an additional 400 basement suites to name a few. Do you think this will lower prices? Commented on a previous video with no response, hoping to get your opinion. Thanks
I'm not a expert but will throw in '2cents ' regardless what you thinking property prices will not go down from where they are. They can stabilize from where they are to the future. But still year over year will be going up, might be 1% 2 % 3 % . Just like buying steak today paying $30 per one,do you think they will go down in the future? I don't think so.
@@jozefciszewski2074 thank you for the reply. I constantly hear about how we have record low levels of inventory so in my opinion increasing the amount of market homes certainly helps with the low inventory. Also an additional 3000 per year non market homes would make it so rents would need to be more competitive. On the side of zoning, the proposed changes would make it so many more homes could be built much faster. No I don’t think prices will tank, but I’m sure people that over bid due to shortage will get burnt as new homes will be built in all communities and in all shapes and forms. This of course is my opinion and was hoping to see the side of somebody involved in the market. The last 3 days of city council has really addressed a lot of issues and came up with a lot of solutions.
Love this convo, and truth be told I haven’t read the news of what came from the city council meetings yet. I think we have swung so far in one direction of people planning moves here that the changes could … maybe… bring stabilization. But that’s a big maybe. Reason being you have to still look at how many people are fed up with unaffordable situations else where who have friends and family that all have made the move and are LOVING it here.
There’s a lot going on here in our market with so many variables so it’s truly hard to fully predict where everything will go, but what we can look at is what is happening and how these things can impact our city.
Labour will be a bottleneck to any city of Calgary zoning of building policy changes made thus limiting immediate new supply of homes. Still bullish despite a mild recession coming in 2024
@@CJ-le6pe absolutely there will be a delay in anything that is approved.
The rental situation is geared only to young people willing to live in some small sardine box in a downtown skyscraper for $200-3000 a month. Young singles or young couples. The rest of us are basically screwed. Especially older people.
Earlier this summer I was thinking if I waited, house prices would come down. But based on everything I’m seeing… really feels like a new normal has been set. I think the baseline has moved up.
That’s what we’re seeing too. If you want to chat so you don’t miss out further let’s create a strategy www.chamberlaingroup.ca/contact/
Just wait for two more years
I agree. I make 6 figures and most of my friends do as well and are DINKs and they are worried about losing their place on renewal and plan to sell and buy smaller in the next 2 years when their mortgages come up.@@stephenn88
Undoubtedly, housing price is on the rise and it'll get even worse if the interest rate reduces.
It’s true.
You basically summed up my video in 17 words 😂
People don’t realize how COLD Calgary is compared with BC and Ontario…buying a house and being a prisoner in it for 6-7 months a year.
You obviously haven’t lived here… it ain’t that bad 😂
@@ChamberlainGroup - What about 22 years? Still can’t get used to it. Most people spend so much time inside they don’t have an objective view.
Which city will be good to go in terms of part time jobs and accommodation for international students in 2024 ?
Can you mention a few ?
And what about edmonton?
What is the source for new homes being built? I'm curious what do you use as a source for "primary" market inventory for Calgary?
I'm in the boat of owning a condo with a mortgage renewal coming up next year, and I'm considering selling depending on what the new mortgage price would be. Does anyone know enough for a napkin calculation of how a monthly payment of about $1300 (condo fee separate) might change if the interest rate went from 2.7% to something like 5%?
If not, does anyone at least know if it'd be closer to $2000, $2500, or $3000+? I'm just not sure what doubling the interest rate does to a monthly payment.
What’s the mortgage amount? I can run it quickly… if you don’t want to post publicly just reach out here www.chamberlaingroup.ca/contact/
@@ChamberlainGroup oh, you guys would be able to calculate/estimate that with information I could provide? I was planning on reaching out to bmo to get the number and then I was going to reach out to you guys about potential options 😅. But if you guys are able to do that, then I'll just reach out to you. Thanks!
You should sell if you cannot figure out the monthly payment yourself 😂
@@scottjet5308must be in Edmonton
So even if interest rates go down to the price of a home could go up
Yes, when interest rates decrease we could see more activity in the market which could increase prices further or keep momentum going in our market.
@@ChamberlainGroup So the hope of buying a home when rates go down is meaningless unless there's a popped housing bubble.
@@dovygoodguy1296 much of it is because of the demand for homes in Calgary…
@@ChamberlainGroup When do you foresee a bubble breaking? When would you advise people to move to Saskatoon or Red Deer?!
@@dovygoodguy1296 first off I don’t see a bubble in Calgary. And secondly that really depends on your situation, what you owe, how much cash, job situations and more so it’s not a simple answer. If you want help creating an exit strategy for you, we can get granular over here www.chamberlaingroup.ca/contact/
Would love to c some analysis on edmenton real estate market
What would you like to see?
@@ChamberlainGroup which is better in terms of growth/rental yields?
Will the hike in interest rates cause any major changes in price as expected in GTA
@@usamahameed62 not all your answers are in here but you may find insights Moving from Edmonton to Calgary - 2024
ruclips.net/video/9upumUeuxUc/видео.html
Build a wall!!!!
Sounds safe 🧱