166 | Jacob Helberg: What a Tech “Gray War” Means for Taiwan, U.S.-China Relations, & Geopolitics

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  • Опубликовано: 6 окт 2024

Комментарии • 99

  • @goingfurther8092
    @goingfurther8092 3 года назад +5

    This conversation was incredibly insightful, and Jacob is unbelievably clear in his ability to explain the precarious world we find ourselves in. There is no doubt this man will become an important voice within this next decade as we navigate the pre world war 3 landscape.

  • @andrewofaiur
    @andrewofaiur 3 года назад +13

    Never thought I'd watch, let alone enjoy a geopolitical breakdown on China from someone with a valley girl accent. Very Interesting talk.

  • @bethcarretta5715
    @bethcarretta5715 2 года назад +1

    I really appreciate the host's abilities to "steel man" the opposing viewpoints arguments particularly when describing why some people in the US would be reluctant to intervene on Taiwan's behalf based on our experience in Vietnam. I'm pleased with the quality of discussion in general on your channel even though I don't always agree with your view points or your guests. More respectful, intelligent content like this is desperately needed in this world. I will continue to watch because I want my beliefs challenged, and if there are compelling reasons, to change my mind.

  • @JWPanimation
    @JWPanimation 3 года назад +5

    So glad that Marshall and Saagar are covering this topic. I agree with Jacob's assessment of the challenges we face with the CCP over the next decades. As TRP continues to cover this story I would love to hear more in depth about:
    1. Taiwan's strategic value to the west, the first Island chain, chip fabrication, 5G technology, the weaponization of artificial intelligence and how Japan and South Korea are key players in the technology front.
    2. The QUAD and India's role in that alliance, the line of control, Modi's shift away from Russia and towards the US and the opportunities and challenges India faces in the future.
    3. China's interests as it moves to exert hegemony in the Indo Pacific. Xi's faction versus Jiang's faction and the internal power struggles within the CCP, moves to remove any alternative power bases in China, crackdowns on soft power influence from the west from culture and a growing Chinese diaspora educated in Democratic countries.
    Thank you, this topic is so important for us to understand right now and is complex.

    • @JWPanimation
      @JWPanimation 3 года назад +4

      @fa q or anyone interested in Foreign affairs diplomacy, the military or just wants to see WTF is going on....

    • @JWPanimation
      @JWPanimation 3 года назад +3

      @fa q Dude these are all questions. What talking points are you even talking about. Please list the talking point and show how my questions in any way support them if you want a response.

    • @JWPanimation
      @JWPanimation 3 года назад +2

      Okay, now we can have a discussion. I agree there is some ridiculous anti China porn out there (strangely enough coming out of India) and I'd be interested in hearing about what alternate questions you would like addressed in the discussion. I will add these from what I think are from the flip side of the coin.
      I will also give you the respect of not ascribing your comments as to being either a stooge for Putin or the CCP.
      1. How does the US use it's military presence in Japan and South Korea to leverage it's foreign policy in the Indo Pacific? 2. What role does energy production in the middle east and Australia and US involvement there play in the current tensions? 3. What role does the US military industrial complex and NSA play in promoting a conflict with the CCP? Is it all just a grift to sell more arms and pump more air into a dying Anglo\American empire? I'm a fan of Hedges too. However, I'm hoping that we can move away from a disastrous 20 years of a foreign policy led by Neo LibCons.

  • @MikeKacen
    @MikeKacen 3 года назад

    Never got a notification for this program. I’m here now.

  • @verygoodfreelancer
    @verygoodfreelancer 3 года назад +2

    jacob helberg really really good here! one of my fav episodes so far!!

  • @user-ii9kh4ux3o
    @user-ii9kh4ux3o 3 года назад +1

    Saagar and Marshall: I’d love to have you guys read Andrei Martyanov’s 3 short books. Very important analysis on global military situation, even if biased at times. The main point is that it is a unique perspective that might otherwise be missed. As you both I’m sure know, perspective changing books are the most valuable. The elite thinker/analyst is one who can keep multiple competing perspectives in his head at once. Few can do this but I see it frequently from you two which is why I’m so eager to recommend these. Again not as “the truth”, but just as an oft missed perspective. Keep up the good work.

  • @redtree8254
    @redtree8254 3 года назад +10

    I hope the term Gray War sticks, it's really cool.

    • @M5MSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMS
      @M5MSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMS 3 года назад +2

      i hope it fukkin aint a thing LULZ

    • @agaperion
      @agaperion 2 года назад +2

      Or not. It's "cool" in the sense that it's a clever term of art for the Cathedral to scare people into compliance, like "War on Poverty" and "War on Drugs" and "War on Terrorism". But perhaps we could learn from past mistakes and stop framing issues in terms of warfare. I'd prefer terminology with more cooperative, less hostile implications.

    • @redtree8254
      @redtree8254 2 года назад +1

      @@agaperion I disagree. We should be even more hostile towards the CCP.

  • @taciturntacitus7745
    @taciturntacitus7745 3 года назад

    Great episode. Really articulate guest, and very clear and insightful questions from you two. Looking forward to hearing more on this topic.

  • @k54dhKJFGiht
    @k54dhKJFGiht 3 года назад +6

    A rare newscast to hear information that matters (and will likely matter for many years to come)!

  • @edens7203
    @edens7203 3 года назад

    This was great, definitely need to be said. Too many are ignoring China rn.

  • @k54dhKJFGiht
    @k54dhKJFGiht 3 года назад +5

    Can an American adult be trusted if they lose their privacy to a malevolent entity that knows them better than they know themselves? Will this change our relationships, and in what ways?

  • @just1689
    @just1689 3 года назад +2

    As a South African I can't help but wonder if Marshall is wearing a Springbok jersey?

  • @Omegax35
    @Omegax35 3 года назад

    Great episode

  • @tycchock1
    @tycchock1 3 года назад +1

    The problem is that the majority of multinational corporations have only allegiance to their bottom line. Also much of our population has a poor understanding of basic geography much less geopolitics.

    • @direwolf6234
      @direwolf6234 3 года назад +4

      as well as americans allegiance to cheap stuff...

  • @michaeldickson2634
    @michaeldickson2634 3 года назад

    It all started here in this video with Marshall wearing a John Deere Green shirt...The Republican Workers Party !!! Also...cannot get enough of Jacob Helberg's common-sense view of the China situation.

  • @just1689
    @just1689 3 года назад

    Fantastic conversation. So much to think about.

  • @sams8502
    @sams8502 3 года назад +4

    If our government forced by law all corporations to manufacture in North America it could happen. With coordination and investment amongst large tech manufacturers, we could utilize Mexico’s cheap labor workforce lifting their economy while benefitting ours. The Economies of Scale are holding back these companies individually, but if there was a coordinated effort it could happen. Tesla is literally proof that you can do it here despite the low margins of car manufacturing.

    • @threeofeight197
      @threeofeight197 3 года назад +2

      It COULD be done. I hope it will. I'm afraid it won't. I think the "civil war" that has been talked about lately is solely due to the hollowing out of rural America. This would solve so many problems not just internationally but nationally. I think we have a grey civil war between urban and rural America. Our politicians/corporations have systemically ruined rural economies while the media treats rural folks like a bunch of idiots and crazies.

    • @sams8502
      @sams8502 3 года назад +2

      @@threeofeight197 You're absolutely correct, after 08' the feeling of economic progression/American Dream has disappeared for the majority of people. We've resorted to infighting and tribalism because Globalism has disproportionately made corporations/owners rich after they chased profits through outsourcing. GDP growth is just an illusion, the wealth of a nation is the skills and power of its individuals.

    • @CaliDreaming01
      @CaliDreaming01 2 года назад +1

      Such a law would never happen because 1) U.S. corporations make too much money manufacturing abroad and 2) those same U.S. corporations effectively control our politicians through their campaign donations.

    • @sams8502
      @sams8502 2 года назад +1

      @@CaliDreaming01 It's a complex problem that's not easy to solve, but we have the smartest people on Earth in America. Every AI Turing Award (Nobel Prize in AI) was received in North America. Automation would make labor costs irrelevant. Big Tech is stagnant and Politicians are ignorant and incompetent. If Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google, were run by Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk or Peter Thiel types, it's possible to manufacture everything in North America again.

  • @weresic
    @weresic 3 года назад +2

    Is Marshall wearing a Springboks jersey?

  • @DocDanTheGuitarMan
    @DocDanTheGuitarMan 3 года назад +5

    USA: help in on the way
    AUKUS: when?
    USA: 10 years
    China: we don’t need subs, we will have cyberspace, drones, AI, world trade and eventually a reserve currency we can print. Good luck!
    USA: …but we are more woke than you and put a man on the moon in 1969!

    • @WorldsOkayestSorcerer
      @WorldsOkayestSorcerer 3 года назад +1

      Back to back World War champions, son! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

    • @direwolf6234
      @direwolf6234 3 года назад +2

      china: have you met our satellite killers..??

  • @webdiver9601
    @webdiver9601 3 года назад +8

    I do not believe that its about democracy or human rights one bit, its about American and Western Hegemony period. I an African do not desire western or chinese hegemony the difference is China does not want Africans to adopt communism or Authoritarianism, but the west does want Africa to adopt western governmental styles and values, if both powers just remained regional we need not worry about a grey war, but America is the policeman of Asia so if this new cold war is anyone's fault its the USA's.

    • @threeofeight197
      @threeofeight197 3 года назад +2

      I think the USA is just too in love with making money and that is why China is able to get their way so easily. Bringing manufacturing back home is hard, working with morally ambiguous Chinese companies to make boat loads of cash is way easier. I fear that if we can't cure the internal rot within our own systems this "grey war" is already over.

    • @devonlewis474
      @devonlewis474 3 года назад +3

      Your lost af . Have you not seen what China did to Hong Kong ? Keep thinking they won’t “infringe” on whatever political ideology they feel without the free world the check that shit . Wake up . Your lost . America isn’t perfect . But China is hell on earth .

    • @liiv3354
      @liiv3354 3 года назад +1

      @@devonlewis474 what did China do in Hong Kong? Did the cop kill anyone?

  • @webdiver9601
    @webdiver9601 3 года назад +9

    Isnt Jacob basically just saying that US national interests are the only important thing and should encompass the lives of everyone.

    • @goingfurther8092
      @goingfurther8092 3 года назад

      No he’s saying that Chinese communist party interests, if they are the victors, will subject us the world to the authoritarian style of governance that they instill within their own country. They are fundamentally, in opposition of individual freedoms and this should keep the west unified against this possibility.

    • @goingfurther8092
      @goingfurther8092 3 года назад

      @fa q good rebuttal. You added nothing and everyone is dumber now for being exposed to your 4th grade thoughts.

  • @mrc-17
    @mrc-17 3 года назад

    Cold war is also an unsettling term imo. The red scare coincided with the lavender scare, allegedly far more harmful according to former GOP senator alan simmons. Gray war is sounds better.

  • @bradbaldinger3649
    @bradbaldinger3649 3 года назад

    Why don't we just make our own chips than we won't have to worry about Taiwan

  • @rutlandfuel2637
    @rutlandfuel2637 3 года назад +1

    springboks!

  • @Lazris59
    @Lazris59 3 года назад

    This was really interesting. The world really does seem to be heating up, especially with China and it's neighbors. I think there will be a domino effect if we do not create a force to push back on China. I personally believe that Hong Kong should of been made it's own country like Singapore. It was so culturally different after 99 years or how ever long, with democratic values, free economic values, etc that giving them back to a communist, surveillance state was basically the west turning their back on their own ideology. China has not lived up the agreement and the treatment of the protestors and their systematic take over of the government officials sickened me. And then China's gall to make anyone around the global who supported or spoke out publicly apologize or have them chastised. Unreal. We can't let that happen to Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, or India. I think the greatest ally against the 1.2 billion of China is India. Making armament deals with them and making more economic ties with them will be better for the future as a fellow democratic nation who is at adds with China already.
    I didn't like trump, but I agreed 100% with his talk on China and Peter Navarro's effort to improve domestic capability. The reason we won WW2 is because we had the power of production. We were feeding the Europeans in WW1 before we joined and in WW2 before we joined. We were the worlds factory. Now, the world's factory is China. They're doing for us, what we did for the Europeans. They're making everything. So when war comes, we're going to be SoL.

    • @4KSnSLifestyle
      @4KSnSLifestyle 2 года назад

      Clearly you know nothing about the history of China.

  • @reaganabroad4952
    @reaganabroad4952 3 года назад +11

    I live in China. This guest does not understand China beyond as an abstract thing.
    As a retort to his main point. China has not been in a war since 1979, and America has backstabbed countless democracies. The idea that China is the aggressor and that the United States of America has to protect its moral high ground is silly.
    If America wants to battle China in some sort of Gray War, the battlefield is not Taiwan, it's Africa. China is the only country willing to finance African Instructure and the result is power, money, and influence. If America wants to stall China in a way that doesn't result in either losing face (unacceptable to Asians) or mass death, undercut the Belt and Road Initiative.

    • @reaganabroad4952
      @reaganabroad4952 3 года назад +1

      @fa q I don't care what Langley interns think of me. I left America because I wanted something different.

    • @threeofeight197
      @threeofeight197 3 года назад +5

      I agree that the USA is far from perfect, we have A LOT of problems, but I think it would be foolish to underestimate China or trust that they have our interests in mind. I think the de-industrialization of the rural USA is one of our biggest problems and has led to a lot of the cultural divide we see within our country. The idea of bringing our critical infrastructure/supply chains home is SO important, but all our leaders see are the dollar signs coming from working with Chinese companies. We should focus on building up rural USA and our allies. The Chinese know that we love money, and that will be our downfall. Its easier to work with them and make money than to do the hard work of rebuilding here and with our allies.

    • @sams8502
      @sams8502 3 года назад +5

      China ain't helping Africa without giving themselves lopsided bargains called debt traps. Africa lacks the security and infrastructure to have the same productivity as Asia. Believe me, if American Capitalists saw a good return on investment without high risk, they would already be setting up shop.
      Also bruh, you have a lack of understanding on how important Taiwan is strategically and technologically. If you concede Taiwan, every ship going through the South China Sea will be dictated by China. Japan was able to invade multiple countries during WWII because of the island chains that connect to Taiwan. This area also consists of the majority of World trade. Not to mention that Taiwan exports the majority of the World's high value semiconductors.
      If you're Korea or Japan, how much will you trust the US to protect you if they don't help Taiwan? The same justifications not to help Taiwan could be said for Korea and Japan. I don't know if you have been to Japan and Korea but they will tell you how China is a bully in the area. While a lot of them protest American soldiers, lately they're supportive of a US presence because of the imbalance of power.

    • @liiv3354
      @liiv3354 3 года назад +3

      China builds ports, railroads, and highways, the USA bombs ports, railroads and highways .

    • @reaganabroad4952
      @reaganabroad4952 3 года назад +2

      @@sams8502 1. The Debt Trap narrative has been debunked. China is willing to take on high risk loans without interfering in foreign internal affairs. African leaders know the deal they're agreeing to. If America wants to counter offer, they will listen. Don't blame China for offering a deal. Blame America and the EU for offering nothing.
      2. America is not an Asian country, yet it's surrounding China with military bases. Who's the bully, exactly? Imagine if China wanted to build a naval base on the Mexican west coast or in Cuba to protect it's maritime trade? America would go to war. But, China isn't allowed to defend itself in its own region? I don't think America belongs in this theater at all beyond a basic naval presence.

  • @barbaracovey
    @barbaracovey 3 года назад

    👍

  • @the_derpler
    @the_derpler 3 года назад +3

    I sometimes wonder if these china experts even speak and read Mandarin

  • @Wompwompwomp.ny1
    @Wompwompwomp.ny1 3 года назад +1

    Maybe MacArthur was right and we should’ve dropped a few mushroom clouds on China while we had the chance :/

  • @terencekwong3033
    @terencekwong3033 3 года назад +5

    2 min's in and I googled this guy, I'm always wary of ppl that are funded by the Military Industrial Complex. The Center for Strategic and International Studies CSIS lists major funding from defense contractors such as Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, General Dynamics, and General Atomics.

    • @direwolf6234
      @direwolf6234 3 года назад +2

      thanks for letting the rest of us know...

    • @goingfurther8092
      @goingfurther8092 3 года назад +1

      Which part of his analysis is incorrect? As opposed to offering a character assassination, without any actual rebuttal to his arguments.

    • @terencekwong3033
      @terencekwong3033 3 года назад

      @@goingfurther8092 he said China flying over Taiwan airspace, go Google the difference between airspace and ADIZ.

    • @goingfurther8092
      @goingfurther8092 3 года назад +1

      @@terencekwong3033 he makes that very obvious distinction in his book and in other lengthier talks on the subject. He does not state China is flying over downtown Taipei, obviously, he probably assumes you have higher than a 9th grade understanding of how the world works. Clearly he was wrong as you haven made clear in your interpretation.

    • @maddoo23
      @maddoo23 3 года назад

      @@goingfurther8092 Its not character assassination. Why would Arms manufacturers fund think tanks? It should be illegal. I understand funding by ideological institutions. They want to promote their ideology. Why does an arms manufacturer fund a geopolitical think tank you little warmongering moron?
      Notice the part at the end, that would be character assassination. Not pointing out a think tanker's funding. Hope that clarifies things :) .

  • @MarcSummers1
    @MarcSummers1 3 года назад +3

    Jacob, if you want to be taken seriously, learn to pronounce Huawei: it's obviously not Wah-way.

    • @goingfurther8092
      @goingfurther8092 3 года назад +1

      Because pronunciation of names of a foreign language is the true mark of intelligence. You must be the most successful human alive.

  • @GS-kj5pc
    @GS-kj5pc 3 года назад +3

    This guy is so deluded in his understanding of American foreign policy. He said our goal is to protect democracy with a straight face. Have you seen Afghanistan?

    • @GS-kj5pc
      @GS-kj5pc 3 года назад

      @@enotdetcelfer I am not going to explain it to you. You can go on breaking points and see the several videos they have explaining how corrupt the whole situation was.

    • @threeofeight197
      @threeofeight197 3 года назад +1

      I thought the same thing, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. I assume that he means the American ideal, which I agree is eroding, but is still the ideal that we collectively have for ourselves. At least on paper.

    • @GS-kj5pc
      @GS-kj5pc 3 года назад

      @@threeofeight197 I agree with this. The ideal is living in the American people. Just not in the people with real power.

    • @liiv3354
      @liiv3354 3 года назад +1

      What democracy? A choice between Trump or Biden. That democracy?

    • @threeofeight197
      @threeofeight197 3 года назад +1

      @@liiv3354 Your point is well taken, we have to fix ourselves first or the rest won't matter. What will it mean for the US to "win" this grey war if we are no better than the adversaries we want to defeat. I guess the real question we should ask is will we destroy ourselves from within or be destroyed by some foreign adversary.

  • @TerryManitoba
    @TerryManitoba 3 года назад

    IT IS pronounced
    depoliticized - NOT - DepoWiticised
    Bolled over - NOT - bowed over
    policy - NOT - powicy
    call - NOT - cow
    If you wish to become a real journalist You must learn how to speak clearly & not how you chew the cud on the street with your homeboys.
    Go back to school - and learn a thing or two.
    Get the marbles out of your mouth...Son