Will Asian Paints Destroy Competition?? | Is the Legacy in Danger?
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- Опубликовано: 20 окт 2024
- Will Asian Paints Destroy Competition?? | Is the Legacy in Danger?
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“The magic is doing simple things repeatedly and long enough to ignite the miracle of the Compound Effect.” -Darren Hardy
Hi Investors! Har Ghar Kuch Kehta Hai… Aapka wala kya kehta hai? 😄
A house is a place of great significance in Indian culture. We Indians always have special plans to decorate our houses from time to time. Be it a Diwali, Wedding in family, Some important milestone etc. Paint is probably the most significant part of the budget when we undertake the project to beautify our homes from time to time. Hence, the paint industry holds a very strategic place in the whole home decor industry.
Today we undertake the monumental task of Covering in Depth one of the behemoths of Indian Stock Market and a Leader in its industry - Asian Paints Ltd. This is a very special video where we will cover the consistent compounder from scratch to current competition it may be facing in the near future. Some important highlights of the video are:
Basics of Paints Industry
History of Asian Paints
Value Chain
Competitive Structure & TAM
Asian Paints vs Grasim
P2P Analysis
Technical View
Valuations
Risks
We would urge you to pay full attention and do take notes as this Industry Analysis will come in handy in future research projects as well.Hope to keep adding value and awaiting your feedback in the comment section.
Business Analysis - Asian Paints Ltd
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With each and every video we make. Our effort is to give you detailed and objective information, so that you can make independent views.
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Why subtitles are not added for last 3 videos?
Analysis on HUL pls
I have been listening to sourabh Mukherjee from last 2 years describing asian paints has supply side moat but never ever I completely understand how this moat looks like. Today I understand that. One more thing you said in your previous video hit me hard and I'm working on it. You said paint koi vi banaye moldtekk ka balti to chalega hi😅
Perhaps the best video ever watched on any paint company. So much detail and such an in depth analysis. That too presented in lucid manner and easy to understand way.
Thanks for this awesome video.
You are such a great fundamental analyst, ripping apart every details of a company.....thank you for doing this ❤
We're happy to know that our content adds value to your investing journey.😃 Thankyou for watching our videos. 🤜
Major advantages of AP: multiple small moats instead of one giant moat.
The moats include
1. Use of data patters to predict customer demend
2. Installed tinting machines which are hard to replace
3. Huge distribution network which has been growing rapidly.
Additional advantages are,
1. Healthy margins both gross and net
2. Good management
3. Expanding capacity
4. Good CAPEX with Backwards integration
5. Amazing ROCE.
Risks,
1. Raw materials price
2. Competition
3. Fall of ROCE
I m not sure if Grasim will be able to manage such huge expansion, it may even fail badly..
Management will also be key here.
Also as a customer, I will think twice before applying Grasim Paints compare to BP or AP, they have customer trust over such a long period of time
but this cannot be ignored that grasim entering with such huge capital must have considered each possibilities
Terrific in-depth analysis of Asian paints and the industry landscape. Loved it !
We're glad to know that you're enjoying our content. We hope to continue adding value to your investing journey. 🤝😃
Hey, Nice explanation, Just a small correction in pongal in South India, they paint rangoli with FIX paint (not removable )in front of main door, and in Maharashtra, farmers celebrate "Bail Polla" (Festival of Bulls) festival where they used to paint the horns of bull to look attractive. In the above scenario cases mostly used ASIAN Paints as you explain.
Actually in Pongal there is a festival maatu Pongal where we paint bull / cow / goat horns and thank them for their service in farming during the year.
Paaji no teacher add such knowledge in my life that you have added in last one year,i will forever owe you Paaji,sukriya dil se🙏🙏🙏
Great analysis.
Huge difference in quality of Grasim management and AP management. ROCE is testament to it.
Shark may grow old and swim slower, but its teeth and experience more than make up for it.
After me being in Paint industry for more than 20 years, this video is one of the best about paint sector...Great...
Analysis was spot on! Kudos to you! My analysis is over the period of time Asian Paint growth will slow down little beat, and due to threat of Grasim and their existing dealer network, it will put price pressure on overall paint industry. Hence there is real danger of PE contraction of paint industry from current PE to almost half of it. I think the valuation will not give double digit return due to PE contraction, worldwide average PE value for paint is in the range of 30 to 35, I am guessing it will come around 50 in next couple of years.
All will grow but AP will increase its market share
Best analysis of Asian paints I ever saw on RUclips.
Well done on the video man! Covered nuances so well. Thanks.
Just a question - Can backward integration into VAM & VAE add a 2-3 percentage points to Gross Margings for Asian Paints and that profit compounds at the same rate even if revenue growth slows down? They also have home decor businesses and can it grow and add to the company's growth?
Loved it !!!! , Such an insightful analysis of paint industry as well as the companies in this sector.
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What a wonderful case study of a complete industry and the sector I think in your field there is no person who gives the complete exposure of the particular sector. What a tremendous energy level you have to describe about anything
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Always been a fan of your detailed analysis..The way you describe the moat & the view point taking the example of a retail store is truly exceptional..That gives more clarity to retail investors like me in understanding the business..
As a request ..I would like to have a detailed analysis on Gas distribution sector (igl ..mgl etc)..it has been such an underrated sector
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Just wow... Your detail videos on sectors or comp gives us lots of insights and help in understanding accurately and invest accordingly. Hatss off to u for doing detail analysis... Thanks again
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Overall good analysis but would have been even better if you covered increasing use of wallpapers as many people are preferring to use wallpaper directly over the plastered walls which is a direct threat to paint manufacturers
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We'll keep the suggestion in mind for our future content. 🤝
Bro wallpaper is a decorative element. Paint is a protective element. Different products.
Usually a conglomerate is not as efficient as a Core competitor. Inefficient practices and people from Cement (Grasim) and Steel (jsw) will find it very difficult to dislodge AP & Berger.. Birla and Jindal will burn their fingers & wind up.
Depends upon the CEO of the paint division of conglomerate
LOVED IT!!!! please do pidillite also
We'll keep this in mind for our future content. We appreciate your suggestions. 🤝😃
Great video as always. Do make a video on Astral, prince pipes and other companies in piping sector. You made a video 2 years ago regarding this and lot of things have changed. It will be great to know your insights.
Thank you for your suggestions. We'll consider them for our future content. 😃🖐️
Such a detailed and informative video. I am an ustaad on the paint industry now. Thanks
Loved it. Very detailed and well presented.
Thankyou for watching our videos. We hope to continue adding value to your investing journey. 😃🤝
Loved the analysis!
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Just loved it. Phenomenal presentation indeed! This is the best coverage on the paints industry and Asian Paints, I have ever heard, watched or read. All kudos to Ismohit and the SOIC team.
I have one small question. What is your opinion on the impact on the industry's margins (primarily the return ratios) as a whole given the new huge capacity addition now underway? I also feel that Asian Paints will maintain its leadership; however, how far will the ROCE or ROIC be affected? I would love to know what you think.
One more great video from SOIC... As expected it is more than what we thought. All details related to the paints industry are given in brief.
What i think about this industry is as asian paints is doing backward integration so definitely it will have pricing power and margin in control, which helps it to have high valuations over the time but here is a risk of over supply which we need to see it will be controlled.
Risk and rewards are dependent on economic situation also as if the world is in piece people will spend alot of money on discretionary items which somwtimes includes paints too.
I really learned a lot again from the SOIC video. Keep on growing👍👍
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great video as always.. entry into adjacent areas such as kitchen, bathrooms, lights, adhesives needs to be carefully evaluated too..
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Comprehensive Analysis!! Thanks!!
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Excellent Detailed review. Super
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Super...loved yr analysis of Asian Paint
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good analysis.. thanks..thinking AP will have an edge, but others will have tough time..
Wonderful analysis. Respect for efforts and presentation.
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Loved it. I would also love to understand your perspective on DCF also. Can you take any company example and show us the DCF calculation like how it's done and how to value a stock with DCF. Or if you have done it in any of your previous video it would be very helpful if you can share it's link.
Sure!
What a detailed analysis!! Really I'm ur fan now. Very good brother. ❤ Hat's off for ur hard work.
Indigo with comparatively very small number of outlets has a relatively larger market share. I think Indigo might warrant closer analysis in the wake of these new developments in the industry
Loved it. What detailed analysis of one of the key stocks.. Just fab..
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I thought you will do all the videos in Hindi.. but today only i found one in english.
Please do all of your videos in english too.. It will useful for most of the people like me...
Thanks for this analysis..
It's great to learn from you ..❤❤❤
Loved it man…
Thanks a ton..
For teaching us this about Asian paints…
We're pleased that you're enjoying learning with us. 😃 Thankyou for watching our videos. We hope to continue adding value to your investing journey. 🤝
Sir, I highly appreciate this deep dive assessment done on Paint industry, you cover highly qualitative content in your Presentation
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I think Asian Paints or Grasim will will try to grow in size by acquiring smaller companies ; but one thing is certain both Grasim as well as Asian Paints will end up burning a huge pile of cash in a fight for market dominance.
The hardwork that goes into making these priceless videos is clearly evident
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It’s a very well thought out and made session Ishmohit. Kudos
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Awesome work thanks for detailed analysis
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Loved it ❤thanks🎉
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Excellent analysis. Have been invested in Asian Paints since 2017. Expect price to be flat or down over next 2-3 years, but will continue to hold as future is uncertain.
Thankyou for watching our videos. We hope to continue adding value to your investing journey. 😃🤝
wonderful research was done by SOIC as usual.keep it up :)
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LOVED IT.... CARRY ON... THANKS A LOT. PLEASE MAKE A VDO ON LAXMI ORGANICS.
Loved the video. Keep making such informative content!
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Great analysis as usual. Thank alot👍
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The best and the most comprehensive analysis of any stock that I have seen in a long time. I am a longtime SHW investor so appreciate this analysis. I agree that Asian paints are deeply entrenched and have a deep moat in the Indian market. I will need to watch this a few more times to fully appreciate it. Your analysis of Capex was great. Excellent job!
Love it , wonderful analysis for retailers getting free ,
Thank you very much from all of the retail investers
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14:27
17:52 retail point
29:34 Expension
Can we have a masterclass/webinar on paints sector? Lots of things happening!
Great analysis of the sector...as conclusion AP wd be continue as mkt leader vis a vis the existing plyers and new entrants but profit growth with reduced scale around 11-12%..means investor not to expect returns of CAGR like 20% ... performance of smaller players wd certainly be affected badly with come of Gracim & JSW..in nutshell the industry seem not promising to give returns of 25-25% CAGR to the investors in long run. 🙏🙏🙏
Jubilant food ,divis ,dmart ,bajaj fin , Whirlpool, Pfizer,bayer crop science, Infosys,mindtree,sheela foam , Muthoot finance, fine organics etc chemical companies 40 /50 % down hai wo saab buy kare kya?
Best selection, will suggest to avoid Whirlpool, Pfizer and bayer corp as their sales growth is in single digits only from last 5-10 years.
Can look for same sectors small caps with strong fundamentals like Orient Electric, Glenmark Life Science, Jubilant Ingrevia 👍
Please carry out your valuations. As a standard disclaimer, we're an educational organisation and don't give buy/sell recommendations. 🙏😃
Loved it.. super explanation
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I am in the construction material industry and Asian paints has destroyed the existing Putty business model and is gaining insane market share.
Loved it! I do believe investing in Paints industry will be very dicey moving forward. I'd rather stay out.
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Itna toh ASian Paints ko bhi nhi pta hoga apne baare mein....BTW great video sir...👌
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The Birlas are good at commodity type businesses. But businesses that are governed by supply chain and branding require a higher calibre of management bandwidth that they might not possess. Besides it has been observed that conglomerates have not been successful in Paints in the past. Even the Tatas got out of the paints business as did Vijay Malaya.
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Saw till the end... Awesome analysis ❤
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Berger looks attractive because Asian paints is already so huge but burger has lot of growing scope
Sir I am Investor in ASIAN PAINTS SINCE LAST 5 YR
All Paint companies are having very high PEs - Now its time for huge correction may be older paint companies will not grow much
ROCE already droped from 40% to 27% , it will drop going forward -may be the growth of stock price is 8% to 10%-Earlier it has 24% of CAGR in growth in stock price
Ishmohit Sir I'm your big fan, ek baat batao crude jab world se khatm hoga tab paint industry ka kya hoga.
Loved it, have been waiting for the analysis
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Time will decide who will win, more integrated offering will win infrastructure business growth. Example if one company can supply paint, cement , steel which are major cost chances of winning this are more. For this to happen company generating free cash flow consistent will have chance to build this eco system.
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Loved it bro👍 Your analysis is always on another level.
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Excellent analysis ❤
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Great analysis ❤
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thank you ishmohit sir we loved it
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I think you made a mistake at 27:40 where you talk about capital employed = debt + equity. For Asian Paints alone, it is 2,76,000 crores. Can you please clarify this?
Beautiful analysis
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One big thing about asian paints is most of the paint contractors or paint labours always recommends a asian paints for decorative paints. Through this we can guess the brand value, quality and demand of asian paints .
Very true ,but in contrary Asian paints quality is very bad compared to Nippon paints ,But in Share market and full market in India ,all painters would recommend Asian paints as they are having great commission from the dealers .
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Damn good analysis. Boosted my bias on Asian paints. Already invested in it.
We're glad that you're taking time out to learn with us. Thank you for watching our videos. 😃 We hope to continue adding value to your investing journey. 🤝
@@SOICfinance Ismohit, you have no idea what value we get from your teachings. Trust me, each video you put on RUclips, deserves a premium subscription.
You are the best RUclipsr among those who talks about investing. Wish you will get a million subs milestone soon.
I will join your SOIC membership someday.
Thank you for making such great content 💕
Amazingly detailed video!
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Loved it,from a genuine research analyst.thank you
looking at you,the performance of Arshdeep against MI comes to my mind 😂😂🙏
Very true
Same here
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Excellent video. Please continue english language because you have max south indian fans
Loved the session. Asian paints is surely a great company but I believe risks at present outweighs returns.
very good analysis..
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once again a great video by you enjoyed your presentation.
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great analysis 👍
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We r giving too much importance to the Grasim investment. But Asian paint gas mastered the business over 50 yrs and has very intricate knowlegde if the market and has its foot firmly fixed.
Moreso, Grasim may also not find it so easy. Further, the Indian market pie can grow at faster rate in coming years also.
After listening to the whole analysis I could conclude that buying Asian Paints share at this point is not wrong and can deliver good returns in the long run. But there can be some turmoil in the near term. Please correct if I am wrong. However a very good way of giving out a positive message 🙏🙏
Our aim is to deliver objective information. Buy/sell/hold is up to the viewer :)
we have pointed out the valuations and the Risks+ Growth drivers
Please make a video on Dmart & Info edge. Info Edge is struggling and the valuation of start-up is in very painful situation.
Amazing video 🔥
Very Interesting video 📹 thanks 😊
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Excellent analysis thanks
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The biggest anti thesis will be exit of marcellus. One day they will come on TV and will say AP is no more 20 to 25% Cagr story. Hence, doesn't fit the bill and we are exiting. even if AP survives the compilation onsalaught kyo matha pachhi karna. Mold tech pack le lo, paint Ind ka proxy hai.Ise Grasim se bhi order mila hai aur AP ka bhi green check hai.
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Loved it. Jai Hind
Lots of thanks for bringing this vdo on Asian Paints 🔥🙏🏿
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One request
Video on L&T Technology Services ...a diversified company
We'll keep this in mind for our future content. 🤝😃
sirji why equitas promoter holding is showing 0?
Loved this video very much sir.
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Fascinating analysis ! Unfolds like a thriller. VAM foray can be double edged sword for Asian paints looking at international pricing, not necessarily an advantage..
Can you explain why?
@@ugeshinvestor2414 China, Japan, Mongolia, Europe already have huge VAM capacity. Pidilite group company Vinyl chemicals is purely into imports of VAM even though originally it was supposed to have been formed for manufacturing.
Loved it ..thanks as always . Smaller players have a life and death situation if the overall market does not grow to absorb the new capacity.. frankly JSW is making a real stupid mistake.. they should have moved to special steels and metals which have huge potential scale and margins they can Control..
As far GRASIM .. again this is a adjacency trap but can probably make a run because they have their cement and construction business though I doubt that these dealers and supply chain can Compete with existing paint dealers .. they should have also focused on higher value add unorganised areas like Building materials and fittings which is a big area that AP has just got into so can grow the market together instead trying to ads scale in paints .. and regardless they should try for industrial and not decorative where entry barriers and branding make a huge difference / costs
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Very good explanation.
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