[Thursday] Hurricane Beryl Approaching Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico
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- Опубликовано: 3 июл 2024
- Website: www.tropicaltidbits.com/
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Please note that these posts do NOT necessarily reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and should not be interpreted as such. While tropical storms exist in the Atlantic, official NHC information is available at www.hurricanes.gov. Please refer to the NHC when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office and emergency management officials.
Dr. Levi Cowan creates videos and blogs pertaining to tropical cyclones, primarily hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. Posts occasionally concern other, non-tropical weather events around the world. Dr. Cowan has a Ph.D. in meteorology from Florida State University. 
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![[Saturday] Beryl Restrengthening; Landfall in Texas Expected Monday](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/4FpPjzTEt_w/mqdefault.jpg)
![[Saturday] Beryl Restrengthening; Landfall in Texas Expected Monday](/img/tr.png)
I live in Yucatan and I appreciate your videos, to the point and without spreading panic unlike a lot of local meteorologists. We’ve been preparing all week and are hoping for the best. Prayers to everyone who has been affected by this hurricane, let’s donate if we can 🙏
I’m in the Yucatan. Cuídate mucho. 🙏
We are in Cozumel, and we are ready!
@@cozdiver wish you the best amigo. Take care
@@Bean7968 gracias! Take care as well, we will get through this 🙏
The absolute best channel on RUclips for weather. Thank you for being scientific without all the hype. Thanks from Belize
I know hurricane season started when he starts uploading videos. Best information out here.
@@peskycitizen66yes. Wouldn’t want to ever begin a Hurricane season without @Tropical Tidbits
And dont forget his web page....its his true gem.
Following from Rockport, Texas. Thankful that Tropical Tidbits helped us through Harvey and now comprehensive updates with Beryl. There are still variables but trends northward have continued. Remembering the last minute turn with Harvey, I have been preparing all week. Praying for all in the path of Beryl!
Thanks for the update! Watching from Houston! Happy 4th!
Watching from Houston too fellow neighbor. 🤓👋
Houston also:) happy 4th!
Me too. Didn’t like when he talked about it slowing down at landfall.
Watching from HTX too - Happy 4th 🎆🎇🎆
TIME TO EVACUATE KATY NOW
I'm in Tulum. 440pm Thursday, and so far it's a beautiful sky
I got an ocean swim in this afternoon, gorgeous contrasts of colours
Now doing final preparations to tape off the windows (nope, advised not to tape off windows), fill up jugs (60 liters) with tap water to wash and flush with
Moral here is so good, everyone helpful, and we're all hoping for the best
Happy 4th Dr. Cowan
Thank You from South Florida 🇺🇸
I'm in Sargent, Texas. We appreciate the update and are prepping for heavy rains with minimal high tides. Thank you for this information.
The rain from these systems is no joke. Good luck ❤ stay safe 😊
Guatemala here. We in the tropics are always prepared and appreciate all the support in the aftermath.
Please donate if you can.
Thanks Levi!
Where was you for Harvey or Katrina?
@@Highspdlowdrag Huh? Know you where Guatemala is?
Thank you Dr. Cowan from the NC coast. So very much appreciate your in depth tropical weather analysis and expertise in meteorology. Your work is absolutely invaluable. Happy 4th.
Thank you for the last update for us here in the Yucatan Peninsula, hoping that it’ll pass us real fast!
“Beryl won’t be a Hurricane when it emerges from the Yucatán” alright Levi, don’t eat crow on this one. Beryl has been making pretty much the entire meteorological community eat crow the last week trying to forecast its intensity.
Beryl will in fact not be a hurricane when it emerges
Thanks for working on your holiday. Appreciated.
From Belize appreciate the update and praying for everyone be safe.
Thanks Levi! 💜🌀
I am mesmerized by your presentations, and am learning lots-thank you.
Happy 4th of July , Dr. Cowan!! You are much loved, respected, and appreciated. The magical Emerald Coast of Florida loves you and yours!!!✨💙🌀
Appreciate the updates. Thank you
Thanks Dr Cowen!
🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲🎆🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲
Thanks for the update on Hurricane Beryl.
thank for all you do for us. Bless you
Thanks Sir👍👍🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
The only update that matters.
Hi I live in Belize, thanks❤
Been following you for years! THANK YOU!! -Insurance Adjuster 🤠
Ty Levi Apreciate your discussions
Thx Doc
You are the best Dr. L! #GoNoles
Much Appreciated. Glad to find you! Been worried abt Grand Cayman. Some one I care about makes their home there. TV Meterologist too general.
Dunno...that wide open door to the Gulf is very possible.
No one comes here for your opinion.
Thanks!
Thank you!
Shear is decreasing over Beryl, leading to increasing organization as it brushes tip of Yucatán and slows forward motion. These vids are always entertaining as it's always variations of MIGHT/COULD/MAYBE/DEPENDS/WHAT IF
That's because predicting the future always has uncertainty, and understanding the nature of that uncertainty is essential to preparedness.
@NYC. Well you try and forecast the meteorological future precisely then.....I'm waiting.
@@Tropical-TidbitsDoctor, I think they meant that in an admiring way. We all appreciate your expertise.
Storm is north of the projected model location. I bet it goes over the northern tip of the Yucatan, then strengthens more than the models show heading to the upper Texas coast. I just want it to come to Arkansas to cool it off and rain lol.
Good news about the Caymans and solid explanation of the upcoming forecast. Thanks, Levi.
Happy 4th of July, Dr. Cowan! Thank you very much for this analysis!
Thank you for the update💜 happy 4th 🇺🇸🦅
Watching very closely from the texas coastal bend. I sure picked a hell of week to move.
Happy Independence Day
Great qualities. No hype or hysteria.
Jamaican here. The gusts were on and off but we're heavy and got up to hurricane force. Because beryl was fighting the wind sheer, it probably wasn't able to translate the storm forced winds as well as most storms. We could hear the winds whistling in the air when the gusts died down which was odd but interesting. Sadly 3 people lost their lives.😢
I've been telling people all night it look like it's going more North I really think it's going to go through Cancun or miss the whole peninsula
I think it's going to cross some part of the peninsula, but probably closer to Cancun than Cozumel.
I live on the island of Cozumel Prepared but glad downgraded. Thank you for report
Thunderstorms are staring to wrap around now, and a eye wall has formed again.
That storm could easily turn hard N and hit absolutely anywhere on the gulf coast..
That water is hotter than the Caribbean sea. Depends on the sheer...
Well anywhere in TX, reaching as far east as Louisiana seems very unlikely given the pattern over the US. It’s more of a timing issue as the weakness in the ridge to the N is only open for a short window of time. The model runs have been split but now all seem to favor the northern bend putting landfall more on the TX side of the US / Mexico border.
Another Hurricane that has held together longer than expected and no models have predicted the northern shifts and aren't calling for rapid re-intensification in the Gulf. I feel like we've seen this movie before...
Launch point and organization after Mexico are critical (and we'll know better tomorrow and Friday), but I feel like these models really struggle once storms enter the Gulf. This has looked and felt like a Texas landfall for a few days now, IMO.
Texas landfall has always been an option; at least one model has predicted a turn towards the US Gulf coast since the beginning, and NHC has always considered final landfall location forecast for this to be a low-confidence forecast. But it's not that the models themselves struggle in the Gulf; it's that most times we're looking at a long range forecast for the Gulf. NHC's three day forecast in the Gulf is usually as good as similar forecasts elsewhere in the Atlantic basin.
By tomorrow I suspect the NHC will have a clearer idea of what the final landfall set up will be, and that's quite reasonable. Our skills are improving, but we're still not good enough yet to verify forecasts 7-10 days out.
Furthermore, Beryl is an unprecedented storm, so any expectations we have of its track and intensity are by definition subject to error.
We need to fill up falcon & lake amastad, so hopefully it will follow up the Rio grande
01:04. That movement path tho. X_x
Here it come Louisiana
The best hurricane analysis bar-none. After watching this guy's videos, most others look like clowns.
Calling it now.
Houston better fucking watch it
11
This thing is going through the opening of cuba and mexico might not even touch mexico
how warm are the waters in the Gulf of Mexico ? how deep is the warm water ? this is all fuel for the storm...their is a lot of fuel available to feed this storm, if it hooks north, it will obtain Cat 4 before landfall...if not 5.
hot
Sizzling 🔥🔥
Please don't be spreading uninformed opinions, if you watch these videos somewhat regularly you'd realize that there is much more to it than seawater temps.
Given the environment between the storm and the US a run at anything above Cat 2 seems highly. A few model runs show a TS at landfall near US / Mexico boarder so just getting back to Cat 1 status could be a challenge unless the track is much further N.
It's been traveling over similarly warm waters for the last few days ... the difference is not the water, but what's happening in the upper atmosphere.
Too bad it missed Havana when it was a cat 5.
Id love to know how much aid Russia would have given...
dry
First!
It'll be interesting to see if this gets any moisture to the Southwest
Good broadcast friend.