Jesse Winker Had a Weird Year | Baseball Bits
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- Опубликовано: 17 дек 2023
- Use code FOOLISH50 to get 50% off your first Factor box at bit.ly/3IsnN7U
Patreon: / foolishbaseball
Twitter: / foolishbb ______________________________________________________________
Clutch. That's what Jesse Winker was. This year was littered with Jesse Winker clutch moments. What does baseball clutch mean? Does clutch exist? These are the questions I'm trying to answer.
Jesse Winker had a weird 2023 season with the Milwaukee Brewers. It was his first year with the team after a trade ended his Jesse Winker Cincinnati Reds years. His tenure with the Seattle Mariners ended on a sour note, as he was traded to the Brew Crew.
Mind you, it wasn't long ago that Jesse Winker was the one of the top hitters in the league. His fall from grace has been fascinating, but it's not the focus of this episode of Baseball Bits, a Foolish Baseball production. One of the main things we'll be looking at is the split between Jesse Winker's WAR, that's Wins Above Replacement, and Jesse Winker's WPA, that's Win Probability Added. We'll get to see a remarkable example of a player with a respectable WPA despite a poor season.
He did it with numerous MLB clutch moments. Fans of the 2023 Brewers probably didn't love Winker's overall performance, but you can't deny that he helped them win a few games with timely hitting.
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Summary of Ryan Divish on Winker: sodomojo.com/2022/10/18/marin...
Jesse Winker on Baseball Reference: www.baseball-reference.com/pl...
FanGraphs Clutch explainer: library.fangraphs.com/misc/cl...
Winker preseason interview: • Jesse Winker on Rule C...
Music by William Kage: williamkage.com/
Use code FOOLISH50 to get 50% off your first Factor box at bit.ly/3IsnN7U
Thanks for the code and I hope you have a great holiday season
Gotta pay those bills.
As a Brewers fan, visions of Winker being pinch-hit in the wild card series still haunt my dreams
So stupid, Chicago can have CC. Good riddance, the guy was so checked out he completely mismanaged that series just to get it over with so he could sign his record breaking contract
@@scottystcloud7086His last two weeks managing the Brewers was a crap show. Kind of glad he's not our manager anymore but still beyond pissed he's on the Cubs.
Not convinced Rowdy Tellez would've fared any better
I'm try to remember who was available, but I wouldn't have used Winker or Tellez in either of those at bats. I was at both games and it was brutal.
The fact rowdy was left off the roster was bad, but that series will haunt my nightmares forever
Bailey's advice to people constructing a baseball team: "sign good players."
Write that down.
A revolutionary thought -- I know
@@FoolishBaseballyou should really be charging for this key advice. Start a consulting company on the side y’know?
No one told the Schmockies though
Reminds me of Jackie Bradley Jr. in the 2018 ALCS
he won the MVP of the series by batting 200 with just 3 hits
but managed to knock in 9 runs
great example!
Babe wake up, Foolish Baseball dropped
I don’t know who this “Foolish Baseball” guy is Dart, but we’re three months behind on our mortgage
@@aaronluna4779 That's Ok...we'll just roll over your payments into one lump sum, sell that off to a refinancing company at a higher rate, rework the terms to keep it affordable....and it's gone. Your house is gone. Sold to a holding company in China. LOL guess you're pretty bad at this huh?
check out my mixtape on datpiff
Babe Ruth????🤨🤨🤨
@@FoolishBaseballmy left ear liked this video
Bailey I think you just earned Jesse Winker a Major League contract with this video
I should be his agent
@@FoolishBaseball Excel Sports Management should legitimately hire you
Mariner legend Jesse Winker. The brawl was the reason we went to the playoffs 🫡
drought ender Jesse Winker
That’s my left fielder
as a mariners fan, it is hilarious how much stranding runners is a huge issue for us, and the guy we JUST got rid of, can ONLY hit with runners on.
Jesse Winker is one of THE brewers players of all time. Right up there with Jon Singleton.
Kolten Wong is one of the Mariners of all time as well.
Truly one of the trades of all time.
Astros playoff legend Jon Singleton
Sometimes I wonder if Derrick Turnbow was just a dream we all had
11:13 Jon Bois Mentioned!! er... Alluded To!!
The thing about clutchness is that it can turn even replacement level guys into folk heroes for a team. Ask Giants fans about Travis Ishikawa, and they'll all tell remember his name despite him having barely a 1.5 career rWAR with the team across 6 seasons as a platoon guy, because of one specific hit.
I watched just about every Brewer game last year. If clutch means you’re better than your usual self, even being average in clutch spots would have made Jesse Winker the most clutch player of all time
You have to give Winker props, he’s seemed to have made an entire career out of hitting baseballs only at exit velos below 80mph
He was hitting the ball pretty hard with the Reds. I think the neck/back stuff has been brutal.
I’m a reds fan and I’ve been going to spring training every year. I can tell you this. his attitude with the reds was a lot better than with the mariners or brewers. Me and my dad tried to get him and Suarez’s autographs and while Suarez’s was happy to do it winker basically said that he doesn’t care enough to give autographs. He made it very public that he felt betrayed and from what I saw he just doesn’t seem to care as much anymore. There’s a reason that his most important hits of the season were against the reds. He’s just fucking miserable since being traded.
Damn that’s quite the indictment. What a loser
As a brewers fan, this video has shocked me to my core. Great job Bailey
(astronaut meme)
"Jesse Winker is our clutchest hitter?"
"Always was."
7:00 - "Futulity players" is the best stat category I've ever heard. Baseball really does have statistics for everything.
Yandy hitting .448 across 87 AB in high leverage situations is insane
A JESSE WINKER BASEBALL BITS?!? As a brewers fan this is peak life
Revisiting this now (he currently has a .987 OPS at 174 wRC+, but I guess we'll have to wait and see a bit longer)
At 7:48 me and my wife are sitting in the stands behind home plate in the top right corner of the screen (wearing black and white caps). We went to the Brewers game where Winker hit his first home run of the year while on our honeymoon. I've been subscribed for awhile. What are the chances we'd end up in one of your videos?😂
omg thats so sweet!!
That's a lovely detail. However, I'm shaken to the core that any of my viewers could find a "wife"
@@FoolishBaseball Well now we know at least one of your viewers has touched.... grass. (I'll show myself out.)
Loved this epic Christian Yelich sliding compilation👍👍👍
A significant portion of Winker's WPA can be attributed to Yelich's baserunning. Just goes to show the shortcomings of clutch stats once again.
@@FoolishBaseball I would kill for a video on sliding although I’m not sure how many stats can contribute to that. Love all your work!
I wonder who has the most amount of homerun into different water features, like Arizona's pool, Miami's pool, McCovey Cove, Kauffman's fountains, Ray's Tank, PNC Park's Allegheny River, Great American Ballparks' Ohio River, Coors Field's center field water, etc. My guess would be Luis Gonzalez with five: AZ, KC, SF, TB, and COL
probably not possible to hit it into the Ohio River on the fly, but Adam Dunn hit one completely out of GABP in the mid 2000s, bounced and landed in the river.
This reminds me of Kyle Seager. He had a .308 ba with runners on second and had a low batting average with no one on in 2021.
Kyle very clearly didn't want to run that year and only tried if there were runners on
I was watching you yesterday thinking "it's almost time for another upload" immaculate timing Mr. Baseball
It certainly was time!
I'm convinced that Bailey can make a baseball bits video of a coconut and I'd still watch every single second of it
you look exactly like the guy i’d expect to run this channel. it’s a compliment.
All I can think about is that old episode of the Simpsons that had all the famous baseball players. Homer ends up pinch hitting for Daryl Strawberry with the bases loaded in the ninth and gets hits with the pitch in the head to win the game.
I never expected FB to make a video about Jesse Winker, but here we are.
This rounds out the trilogy (Year of Ohtani, Year of Judge)
Jesse Winker for me will always be a Mariners Legend by starting this legendary brawl with the Angels, that turned our season around, which finally ended the playoff drought. And you can argue that this run started with Jesse Winker flipping of the Angels crowd... 🥹
Wow he really is the clutch king. Turned the whole Mariners season around.
The touched grass joke had me rolling
"...unlike me!"
This guy's videos got me interested in watching baseball. The WAR vs WPA discussion adds next level nuance.
I remember last year in Seattle Winker had I believe a 12 pitch at bat that ended with a walk off single. Just kept fouling off pitches until he got one he liked. While he wasn’t good in Seattle his pitch selection and recognition was on another level
Love the animations on your graphs. The production is always so high and I appreciate the effort that goes into it. Thanks Bailey
I've never seen anything half as smooth as that point and wink on the balcony.
Foolish is underrated when it comes to comedic writing imo
Im a Reds fan and Jesse Winker was one of my favorite players when he was with us. I was upset to see him leave. I hadn't seen much of him with the Brewers and didn't know he fell off so much.
My biggest flex is that I saw ever one of winkers homers in 2023
Videos like this are why I’m subscribed. Amazing analysis that’s entertaining and challenges standard approaches to the sport.
Wow the Mariners really could’ve used a clutch guy like this in the 2023 season
Consider this as possible evidence of clutch hitting. Bryce Harper's most similar players on BR are Tim Salmon (45 oWAR, 18 WPA), David Justice (35, 25), Ryan Klesko (34, 26), J.D. Martinez (33, 15), Raul Mondesi (28, 7), and J.D. Drew (38, 22). Harper is at (46, *40*).
It just seemed like his swing speed was incredibly slow especially on high fastballs
I feel like 50% of you videos has some reference to Jon Bois/Secret Base and its so fucking funny
You make my day with your uploads bro keep up the great vids!
glad to hear that
Thank you very much for spending your valuable time on a Milwaukee Brewers player. And for including "Brew Crew" and "Bernie"!
As a Rockies fans, this might be how we sign people
What when do we sign people?
I am so happy my nats signed this guy. Now he hits with and without men on base!
Another Brewers Baseball Bits, this time on Brewers Legend Jesse Winker. Thank you Bailey
Bailey's personality is so great that I don't even skip his ads
2:47 It’s the RUclips baseball-analytics-self-published-mystery-book crossover everyone’s been waiting for!
Actually got to see Jesse down at AAA Nashville in the shock Sandy Alcantara start AAA before he was shut down for the year, and Sandy still managed to make Jesse look silly.
i would die for a nolan gorman being 'that guy' video
I got the opportunity to photograph some Nashville Sounds games that featured Winker last year, and it's crazy just how undaunted the mans is. A lot of minor leaguers, especially ones with major league pedigree, have a chip on their shoulder.
Winker was funny, kind, and almost lackadaisical.
Interesting stuff.
Winker has done interviews with Jomboy Media on Talkin' Baseball and Chris Rotation. He was great.
And now he’s the second best hitter on the Nats a month into the next season. You might need to explain that please.
Having a bad year after having spinal and knee surgeries should surprise nobody. He needed some time to properly heal, that's it.
He's looking good rn for my Nats
I was at the game at the 8:43 mark I have the snap video saved but I said “bold strategy cotton let’s see if it pays off for Craig Counsell here… Jesse Winker. Jesse Winker? Possible tactical genius by Craig Counsell, probable line out tho.” He got his base hit and I was screaming tactical genius Craig Counsell
As an Astros fan, couldn't help but notice the cut to Jake Meyers at 7:15 along with the line "spine and back issues are often blamed for sapping power from a player's game" 😂 probably a coincidence
As another Astros fan, Abreu would have been just as good of an example of that last year.
I'm an English bloke, and therefore basically have no idea who most of the players are that are mentioned, yet I still watch these videos asap on release. Chapeau!
Best moment of every month, new Foolish Baseball video
glad to hear that!
the funny thing about clutch is that you can really complicate it.
Some players are probably absolute dawgs in practice, absolutely cook in scrimmages, etc. However these same guys might just be mentally unable to perform when there is anything at all on the line, and never do anything significant professionally. And there are likely guys who are the opposite; absolutely unimpressive in practice, but just have that mental ability to go crazy when there is something on the line. This is the extreme end of the spectrum.
I completely agree with your definition of clutch and I love that you are making such an emphasis on this type of stuff with recent videos because it also fascinates me. WPA is such a fun thing to look at because it just measures pure results with minimal abstraction. And some guys genuinely just have better WPAs than they "should" given the basic abstract stats we use like wOBA (Ichiro, Tony Gwynn, Pete Rose are the top 3 in cumulative clutch rating I believe. Interesting to consider.)
Another weird year, Ricky Nolasco’s 2009 season. 185 IP, 5.06 ERA with a 3.35 FIP. He had a bWAR of 0.7 and a fWAR of 4.1. I don’t think we’ll ever see a player break WAR like that again.
2:37 LMAO bro flew over the wall 😂😂😂😂
My real takeaway from the video is that Mickey Moniak has virtually the same BA in high-leverage situations as noted WS MVP Corey Seager
I don't love that clutch is looked at as how much better than normal you are. I think it should be whoever rises to the occasion most of all. The most clutch player of all time shouldn't be some dude who went 0-2000 low leverage and and then had a 2-2 bases loaded career with 2 grandslams, it should be the guy who consistently rises to the occasion in high leverage situations, regardless how they performed in low leverage situations. Just my piece.
Been pretty good this April for the Nats. If he can be 2/3rd of what he was in Cincy he was worth the chance
And I thought my Monday couldn't get any better.
Not gonna lie, Bailey, that last line was cold. Great video as always my man
idk why ya videos aint getting more views they are dope
Watching this while Wink has an .800 OPS for the Nats
If Jesse can't find a team for next year maybe he could become a philosopher and change his name to Jesse Thinker
14:20 IF NOBODY GOT ME I KNOW WILMER FLORES GOT ME, CAN I GET AN AMEN TO THAT?
Would love to see a breakdown of the players who were most consistently clutch in their career
Winker would maybe see value as a Matt Carpenter-esque pinch hitter, who knows
Always a good video when Clutchlos Walktana gets a shoutout!
Dude is one of my favorite players. Was at a Rangers game during his stint in Seattle while he was playing left field and my boys and I were jawing at him all game, nothing too bad. This dude just ate it up, jawing back at us, smiling at our comments, all around had a good time with it. Bottom of the ninth, two outs, Adolis Garcia hits probably a 350 foot shot to left field, right at our boy. What does he do with the ball after? Throws it up to us and says for us to be safe. All around, a classy and funny dude in my opinion.
Bailey was too scared to talk about Winker as a Nashville Sound this year
FOOLISH IS BACK
8:06 I can feel the relief through the screen
This is hall of fame narrativeball baby this is what i like
Thank you Bailey as a Brewers fan I thought there was something odd going on with Winker but couldn’t wrap my head around it. The biggest problem was the fact the Brewers offense was so brutal I bet 75-80% of his ABs were with nobody on
BREWERS BASEBALL BITS LETS GOOOOOOOO
I think that makes two (Corbin Burnes being the other one)
Look into Jack Suwinski. Im a pirates fan and my god it seemed like 70% of his homeruns were in games that were already decided
What’s the song at 7:56? It fits so well how it was used. I went to William Kage’s website in the description but wasn’t able to find it
I feel like there has to be a baseball bits on Bartolo Colon!
As a Mets fan, so i have a lot of experience with jesse winker. based on what ive seen from him, hearing that he only comes up in big, high leverage situations makes a lot of sense. he definitley played with a weird confidence
Might I suggest a video about having an OPS+ over 200? Only Aaron Judge has done it since 2004 Bonds
Hey, could you give a look on Carter Capp's weird pitching wind-up (hop-step)? Thanks!
good video, get that factor money too
If they’re colloquially known as “good players” what is the technical term?
There must be a stat like
Largest 1.64-standard deviation proof gap between WPA and WAR (min 3,000 PA) or something.
This is why I love baseball
“Other, better videos” made me choke on my cigar.
I'm a fan of Jesse Winker, I hope he finds another opportunity and makes the most of it!
Love the Schmolorado Schmockies, glad their legendary player Schlarry Schwalker got into the HoF.
14:02
Theres a weird saying in pro wrestling that goes "anything that comes out of a box is immediately over."
Its a facetious phrase that refers to the overness, or popularilty with fans, of the individual coming out of said box.
Its also a double meaning, as over in non-wrestling terms signifies the end of something.
This is because all the instances of a wrestler debuting from an encased box have led to wildly unsuccessful and short careers.
I think it might also apply to mascots, which would remain true with the Rockies.
At least Dinger's still employed
damn i didn't know about the neck/back injuries. those can be career-killers, hope he finds a way to bounce back 🤞
As a Reds fan I will never not think of this guy as a legend
Marcus Semien’s role is to set the table, despite setting the MLB record for HR by a 2B, in 2021.
Early Xmas!!
Best yet channel
channel yet best
Honestly I’m really disappointed you didn’t do a 2023 in review post.
I was at the April 1st and 2nd games 🤦♂️ was disappointed that I go to 2 games my first time at wrigley and the cubs lose both