Did Iran just prove Israel can't afford to defend itself?

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  • Опубликовано: 16 апр 2024
  • "Go to ground.news/Sandboxx to stay fully informed on military developments around the world. Subscribe through my link for 40% off their Vantage Plan, which is what I use."
    -- Break --
    On Saturday, Iranian forces launched some 330 cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones in an ill-fated attack on Israel, resulting in more than 99% of the weapons either being intercepted, or failing before they reached their targets.
    But was Israel's defense really a victory? With the cost of interceptors used to down these inbound weapons sometimes outstripping the cost of the weapons themselves by 10 to 1 or more, did Saturday's attack prove Israel's defense is a losing financial proposition?
    No, it didn't. So, let's talk about why.
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    Citations:
    iranprimer.usip.org/resource/...
    missilethreat.csis.org/missil...
    www.yahoo.com/news/iran-publi...
    www.nasic.af.mil/LinkClick.as...
    www.reuters.com/article/us-ir...
    www.timesofisrael.com/iran-un...
    www.newarab.com/news/israels-...
    www.wsj.com/livecoverage/isra...
    www.iranwatch.org/our-publica...
    www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
    www.sipri.org/databases/milex
    www.inss.org.il/
    www.imf.org/external/datamapp...
    www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp...
    data.worldbank.org/indicator/...
    apnews.com/article/israel-ira...
    www.nytimes.com/2024/04/14/wo...
    www.bbc.com/news/world-middle...

Комментарии • 1,1 тыс.

  • @SandboxxApp
    @SandboxxApp  Месяц назад +15

    Go to ground.news/Sandboxx to get a balanced perspective on military developments around the world. Subscribe though my link for 40% off unlimited access for just $5/month.

    • @keithbarron3654
      @keithbarron3654 Месяц назад

      For the love of God, straighten that cover! Sorry my eyes go right to it in that corner shelf

    • @texlong1866
      @texlong1866 Месяц назад

      😮

    • @Thetequilashooter1
      @Thetequilashooter1 Месяц назад

      Google “DARPA’S GROUNDBREAKING “ACE” PROGRAM AND X-62A BECOMES FIRST AI-CONTROLLED JET TO DOGFIGHT AGAINST MANNED F-16 IN REAL-WORLD”
      Finally in real life an AI powered fighter went head to head against a manned F-16.

    • @skylanh4319
      @skylanh4319 Месяц назад

      Who cares about percent of GDP??? It is still wasted money. Yes the US has way more land and people so our GDP is high. It is still a loss for every dollar we waste. Our government steals taxes from us to fund that as Iran’s government pays for its own missiles using state owned oil. AKA. The West citizens suffer vs Irans government has less money.

    • @tristangreene9457
      @tristangreene9457 Месяц назад +2

      So what this video told me is the USA is the only reason this works as a win financially. So we must do our best as Americans to get our country to pull out. Iran showed the world that Israel cannot defend its nation by itself. Definitely a win there.

  • @777Outrigger
    @777Outrigger Месяц назад +165

    Old military axiom. "The first reports are always wrong."

    • @stcredzero
      @stcredzero Месяц назад +16

      New axiom: The reports that the first reports are wrong could also be wrong.

    • @777Outrigger
      @777Outrigger Месяц назад

      @@stcredzero 😅

    • @joetato2227
      @joetato2227 Месяц назад

      Said Omar Bradley at receiving the info at the beginning of the battle of the Bulge.

    • @Mak10z
      @Mak10z Месяц назад +1

      No plan survives contact with the enemy - Helmuth von Moltke

    • @alexv3357
      @alexv3357 Месяц назад

      @@stcredzero "We apologise again for the fault in the -subtitles- initial reports. Those responsible for sacking the people who have just been sacked, have been sacked."

  • @jeffs7573
    @jeffs7573 Месяц назад +150

    Cost exchange ratio, a $100,000 missile taken out by a $11,000,000 missile protecting a billion dollar plus target. Cost exchange ratio is very cheap indeed.

    • @ricky1231
      @ricky1231 Месяц назад +40

      Excellent point and it escapes a lot of people. The cost of what is being protected ultimately is the most important factor plus the cost of the aftermath of its destruction

    • @12zaf1
      @12zaf1 Месяц назад +8

      The most expensive interceptor israel has is arrow3 ballistic interceptor (3 mln dollars). And iran ballistic mid range ballistic cost much more than 100k dollars.

    • @jeffs7573
      @jeffs7573 Месяц назад +12

      @@12zaf1 those figures I gave were a rough number to get the context of the point I was making. Even using your numbers, my comment is still valid.

    • @12zaf1
      @12zaf1 Месяц назад

      @@jeffs7573 not still valid, but even more valid i would say.

    • @thorwaldjohanson2526
      @thorwaldjohanson2526 Месяц назад +4

      ​@@12zaf1yeah, I don't get that 1.3 billion number floating around. It makes absolutely no sense.

  • @ericmatteson9868
    @ericmatteson9868 Месяц назад +76

    Does beg the question.... how many missiles can Iran intercept?

    • @cspace1234nz
      @cspace1234nz Месяц назад

      ….they have no idea because unlike Israel they have not yet been constantly attacked for years forcing them to develop sophisticated defensive systems

    • @Santirata
      @Santirata Месяц назад +25

      I'd wager somewhere close to 0.

    • @masternobin
      @masternobin Месяц назад +5

      Iran has many anti missile defense system which includes russian s300. That's the reason israel has taken so long to attack iran

    • @cspace1234nz
      @cspace1234nz Месяц назад +10

      @@masternobin …they’re a bit useless if they can’t lock onto anything. I’m sure they work just fine when they’re practicing against the Iranian Air Force F-14s

    • @rocksolid1976
      @rocksolid1976 Месяц назад +3

      ​@masternobin hopefully not too much longer. Farsi should be a language of the past.

  • @rhughes3674
    @rhughes3674 Месяц назад +70

    Alex, thank you for trusting your audience to handle some nuance and context. At least some of us out here get it.

    • @roberthevern6169
      @roberthevern6169 Месяц назад +4

      Yes, yes we do! Thanks Mr Hollings, the king of nuance!

  • @LukeBunyip
    @LukeBunyip Месяц назад +25

    I hope Perun covers this in the future. This type of analysis is his happy place.

    • @bestestusername
      @bestestusername Месяц назад +2

      ha true that, the economics and politics is his thing thats for sure

    • @RobBCactive
      @RobBCactive Месяц назад +4

      Yes, there seems to be factors left out to positively spin the conclusion he made before examining it all. The defence has to stand and is costly, while Israel depended on allies flying in Syria for strategic depth, plus there was clearly warning of this attack.
      Israel having radicalised populations near it's borders, historically dispossessed of land, happy to receive relatively cheap weapons which will over time improve.
      US & Israeli attacks on militias are like cutting the head from a hydra. More pop up from whence they've come with oppression and instability meaning alternative careers are hard to come by.
      The punitive actions buy at great cost temporary illusion of security.
      Then there is the chilling effect of not living in peace for Israelis, there are other strategic effects and I have noticed Kremlin bots are encouraging Israeli escalation to continue this process, probably to divert attention from Ukraine.
      Now it has become clear that the USA may be isolationist and not the reliable dependable partner of the pre-Trump era.
      Finally there is the opportunity cost of not building peace, seething populations held down by autocrats and military regimes can change sides. This fortress strategy oppressing Moslem populations is breeding conflict with no end in sight.
      US intervention in the Middle East has had poor results.

  • @jloiben12
    @jloiben12 Месяц назад +368

    Up to half of Iran’s missiles failing to work properly is peak Iran

    • @ChargeNReact
      @ChargeNReact Месяц назад +8

      What flavor is the ShillBox Kewl-Aide these days? Must be delicious.

    • @bradcraig5111
      @bradcraig5111 Месяц назад +34

      ​@@ChargeNReactYou would know.

    • @quvy338
      @quvy338 Месяц назад +7

      well, thats according to the US

    • @jloiben12
      @jloiben12 Месяц назад +27

      @@ChargeNReact
      I don’t know. Why don’t you tell me since you seem to be the one throating that bottle?

    • @jloiben12
      @jloiben12 Месяц назад +19

      @@quvy338
      Yes. According the the country that sees the entire Pacific, can see balloons taking off in Asia, is one of the countries that was defending against the attack, and can see (from space) the writing on top of buildings in Iran

  • @ElonMuckX
    @ElonMuckX Месяц назад +5

    Iran: $50M for ~1% accuracy
    Israel: $1B for ~99% accuracy
    Iran would have to spend $1B for 20% accuracy

  • @Max11B
    @Max11B Месяц назад +222

    Iran basically got a participation trophy and tells people they won 😂😂😂

    • @KSmithwick1989
      @KSmithwick1989 Месяц назад +10

      No, it's really more that they cost the Israelis a huge amount of money. Relative to what they committed themselves.
      Overall it's just a political show of force. Which each side working off separate objectives.

    • @rdf098311
      @rdf098311 Месяц назад +19

      @@KSmithwick1989did u watch the video?

    • @Atheos-1
      @Atheos-1 Месяц назад

      In reality it's Israel that only participated in its air defense, so they win the participation trophy.

    • @teddy.d174
      @teddy.d174 Месяц назад +9

      Iran barely even received the participation trophy.

    • @mike4769
      @mike4769 Месяц назад

      Israel was baiting iran to respond so Israel could get the green light for a precision strike on irans nuclear facilities. 🎣

  • @stcredzero
    @stcredzero Месяц назад +71

    Financial Attrition: My alliance in Eve Online did this. There was this guy who ran a cruiser with drones. He'd almost always get taken down. The thing was, he'd always take with him 3X or more times the value of enemy ships. So our alliance kept buying him new ships and equipment. The US and NATO need to start developing super cheap drones that can take down other drones. We already have anti-ship missiles that can allocate targets between them. Just apply that tech to drones.

    • @Adroit1911
      @Adroit1911 Месяц назад +9

      There is a little drone company in Utah that is working with the military and DOJ..... 🤔

    • @dongiovanni4331
      @dongiovanni4331 Месяц назад +8

      Point Defense Lasers are close

    • @toasteroven6761
      @toasteroven6761 Месяц назад +5

      @@Adroit1911 anti-drone drones?

    • @OGUNite
      @OGUNite Месяц назад

      America called in alot of favors for Saturday night. I doubt they can call it again. Many of these nations just don't want another Western War in their region.
      Think about it first. The War in Iraq which destabilized the region. The Deal with Iran which emboldened them and created the Houthi issue. Leaving Iraq which created ISIS. Supporting the Arab Spring which destabilized the entire region and boosted ISIS. Which also helped spark the Syrian Civil war which pushed refugees into all neighboring countries. All this for what? Oil we don't need and terrorism that is fuelled by our involvement in a region 10k miles away. LEAVE THAT AREA ALONE. I mean Natty Boy literally bragged about feeding the snake that eventually bit him in October. Seems like America is getting involved in someone else's bad domestic policy Again. Not to mention the INCALCULABLE LOSS of soft power we have suffered over this. This conflict has made it clear to the World that "Wh**e mean Right" in the eyes of the US and presenting that optic to the 80% of the World that does fit that category and that hold 80% of the raw material needed to sustain Western society is a strategic Loss. It will alot harder for America to make the sweet heart deals it historically had access to.. 80 years of being the "honest broker" down the drain.

    • @alexfortin7209
      @alexfortin7209 Месяц назад +5

      Try everything and keep trying because we’re at Drone Warfare 0.3 Public Alpha.

  • @maddantt7757
    @maddantt7757 Месяц назад +13

    You are indeed Alex Hollings, and that was in fact another excellent video. Thank you, sir!

  • @Maverick7154
    @Maverick7154 Месяц назад +39

    This is award winning journalism at its best!

    • @justmyopinion8395
      @justmyopinion8395 Месяц назад

      Although high quality and informative, his videos are full of bias. Journalism should be impartial.

  • @markb8468
    @markb8468 Месяц назад +4

    Excellent breakdown. Thanks for contextualyzing this.

  • @konekillerking
    @konekillerking Месяц назад +27

    There is another RUclips channel screaming about this. They say that the aircraft should have only used the canons on the aircraft to shoot the drones down. Apparently, that many of the drones fly near or below stall spread for a jet didn't cross his mind. Or the need to fire and forget to acquire new targets. Active defense will be more expensive, that's one of the driving forces behind the laser systems being developed to hit close in targets.

    • @ThatGuyKazz
      @ThatGuyKazz Месяц назад +7

      also air craft typically only carry enough ammo for their guns to fire for less than 20 seconds total.

    • @ChucksSEADnDEAD
      @ChucksSEADnDEAD Месяц назад

      ​@@ThatGuyKazz Burst limiters take care of that.

    • @thorwaldjohanson2526
      @thorwaldjohanson2526 Месяц назад +3

      More like 3 seconds of gun fire for the f35. Other jets are usually in the 5-7s range. Modern jets only carry enough ammo for a few bursts. Guns are rarely used anyways.

    • @pogo1140
      @pogo1140 Месяц назад +3

      ​​@@ThatGuyKazz F-15 and F-16 7 an 5 seconds.

  • @johnbeaulieu2404
    @johnbeaulieu2404 Месяц назад +9

    Great analysis Alex.

  • @johnadams7402
    @johnadams7402 Месяц назад +2

    Well done. Thanks for the work you put in to these videos.

  • @lelandcarlson1668
    @lelandcarlson1668 Месяц назад +1

    Thank you Alex for providing the context of this situation. Always learning something new from your videos. Well done!

  • @treyaldridge1757
    @treyaldridge1757 Месяц назад +27

    Here's the thing about the cost exchange ratio, it's a terrible way to look at war. Militaries don't pay by the round fired, they pay to acquire it. So while yes, it will deplete their stockpile and force them to acquire more, they aren't spending millions of dollars to intercept the missiles, they're using their multi million dollar safety system to defend against a threat that could potentially cost billions in damage.
    And the other thing is that in many cases, depleting stockpiles ends up benefitting the defending nation, the US and NATO allies aiding Ukraine is a perfect example of this. By getting rid of all the stuff just sitting in storage (again, that's already been paid for), enough budget and resources are freed up to allow for acquiring newer, more advanced systems.

    • @raidellcorps
      @raidellcorps Месяц назад +1

      honest question, does the cost of "keeping" things in storage surpasses the cost of procuring new stocks?

    • @Justme-to6yu
      @Justme-to6yu Месяц назад +4

      @@raidellcorps not many people realize that warheads and stockpiles of weaponry degrade over time without expensive maintenance. They “depreciate” the longer it is left unused, until they must be “discarded”. The comparative cost of using existing stockpiles to protect billions of dollars is much cheaper than the alternative.

    • @cotillionfpv8330
      @cotillionfpv8330 Месяц назад

      only problem with that is those missiles were moving at x MACH with ballistic missiles maybe even closer to 20 mach no drone will be able to intercept them

    • @williamwchuang
      @williamwchuang Месяц назад

      Wrong. If you run out of interceptors you need to quit. Look at Israel's Operation Cast Lead. They ran out of interceptors and entered a ceasefire.

    • @treyaldridge1757
      @treyaldridge1757 Месяц назад +2

      @@williamwchuang completely missing the point. It can have strategic implications, but from a purely cost standpoint, it is more beneficial to use those interceptors than it is to not use them.

  • @tbe0116
    @tbe0116 Месяц назад +86

    I’m pretty sure those missiles and drones would have caused more than $1B in damage.

    • @DoctorMandible
      @DoctorMandible Месяц назад +8

      Whoosh. The point is those expensive missiles will run out before the cheap drones do.

    • @tbe0116
      @tbe0116 Месяц назад +8

      @@DoctorMandible It would be really simple to build dirt cheap drone interceptors. The current tech was built with much faster and smaller munitions in mind. This isn’t a tactic that’s going to bankrupt anyone.

    • @IndigoSeirra
      @IndigoSeirra Месяц назад +10

      ​@@DoctorMandibleMy guy. Iran's GDP is half of the American defense budget. I think they'll be fine.

    • @asherwiggin6456
      @asherwiggin6456 Месяц назад +1

      @@tbe0116would these drones be interceptors in the classical sense that they would come in range of the target and destroy with a reusable weapons system or are they suicide interceptors? Either way, they would probably be more expensive than you’re alluding to. Likely not as expensive as a missile but still expensive, and don’t forget that an atmospheric drone can’t engage a ballistic missile.

    • @tbe0116
      @tbe0116 Месяц назад +5

      @@asherwiggin6456 these would be smaller guided rockets. Because these drones are slow, fly low, and can’t maneuver much, the missile doesn’t need advanced guidance systems. Very simple radar/optical would work. Yes it would be short range, but again the drone is really slow.

  • @brianloomis9351
    @brianloomis9351 Месяц назад

    An excellent and well thought through presentation. You brought up perspectives that I had not thought about.

  • @wagnerfamily4229
    @wagnerfamily4229 Месяц назад

    Great analysis and thank you for it.

  • @cccalifornia7206
    @cccalifornia7206 Месяц назад +5

    Thanks Alex 👍🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

  • @alexvinson7373
    @alexvinson7373 Месяц назад +3

    Iran has found out the saturation point is above what they sent, especially if there is a US carrier group in the Med. Gonna send a lot more next time to see if they can find the saturation point.

    • @fakecubed
      @fakecubed 7 дней назад +1

      Exactly. They gained a bunch of intel in the process, and they will also be watching how quickly the rearmament happens.

  • @michaelgautreaux3168
    @michaelgautreaux3168 Месяц назад

    Many thanx Alex, always the best 👍👍

  • @BorKagan777
    @BorKagan777 Месяц назад

    Thank you for the great analysis.

  • @Angl0sax0nknight
    @Angl0sax0nknight Месяц назад +44

    Wonder if irans failure has China having second thoughts on Taiwan

    • @hamubice1551
      @hamubice1551 Месяц назад +3

      Given that we already know a lot of China's missiles have had their fuel swapped out for water, I'd say they're becoming increasingly hesitant lol

    • @osric1730
      @osric1730 Месяц назад +7

      @@hamubice1551 That story was a load of cobblers.

    • @haihengh
      @haihengh Месяц назад +5

      well, they reported it's Iran's success, and the fact is China is much more capable than Iran, they can produce 100x more missiles and drones with the industrial capacity, and Taiwan does not have as good as air defense compare to Israel, so China may look at this as encouragement rather than discouragement. the underline fact is, Taiwan people are not prepared for war, Israel had been in war none stop, and as worse as it sounds, China and Taiwan are all Chinese, they are not trying to kill each other, so Taiwan's civilians may worry losing their freedom and their way of living, they hardly worry about China will wipe them off. while Israel, they are pretty sure they will be killed, everyone of them by enemy if they fail to protect their country.

    • @Truspio
      @Truspio Месяц назад

      When the US allows itself to get dragged in a full scale war with Iran, it will surely give China a second thoughts about Taiwan

    • @zzzaccounting5924
      @zzzaccounting5924 Месяц назад

      ​@@haihenghThey have the chips required for this war??

  • @glenn5328
    @glenn5328 Месяц назад +38

    When it’s war the financial cost doesn’t matter…unless you lose!

    • @tedarcher9120
      @tedarcher9120 Месяц назад +1

      Unless you win

    • @redskin6146
      @redskin6146 Месяц назад

      It doesn't matter to Israel because US and European tax money pays for those weapons.

    • @helifanodobezanozi7689
      @helifanodobezanozi7689 Месяц назад

      There is such a thing as a pyrrhic victory, especially if you are part of a democratic system. Even governments that "win" wars can be replaced.

    • @wh0_am_152
      @wh0_am_152 Месяц назад +4

      Ever heard of a pyrrhic victory?

    • @mowabb
      @mowabb Месяц назад +3

      Not true, the expensive weapons tend to take longer to acquire and replace. Cheap weapons are easily produced and can overwhelm the enemy

  • @Gallagher2112
    @Gallagher2112 Месяц назад

    Always appreciate your succinct analysis. We’ll done sir.

  • @pathfinderdiscovery9395
    @pathfinderdiscovery9395 Месяц назад +1

    You explained that perfect , we were wondering that at work , so ima sure this video

  • @johnmadick4706
    @johnmadick4706 Месяц назад +35

    The hidden Iranian cost is the loss of sales due to poor showing from their weapons.

    • @gikigill788
      @gikigill788 Месяц назад

      WHO is lining up for Iranian weaponry 😂😂

    • @willythemailboy2
      @willythemailboy2 Месяц назад +2

      @@gikigill788 Russia, mostly. Everyone else who uses Iranian weapons are given those weapons by Iran in exchange for doing Iran's bidding. The three H's come to mind there, but basically every terrorist group in the region is supported by Iran in one way or another.

    • @mattpima123
      @mattpima123 Месяц назад +1

      Russia

    • @AMBEE-sp2ev
      @AMBEE-sp2ev Месяц назад

      ​@@gikigill788Only terrorists.

    • @chalo4792
      @chalo4792 Месяц назад

      ​@@gikigill788 freedom fighters

  • @DS-sn9jk
    @DS-sn9jk Месяц назад +25

    If irans defense functions like its offense..... lolololololololololol. 😂😂😂😂

    • @MattMajcan
      @MattMajcan Месяц назад

      if irans defense functions like its offense than the us, uk, france, germany, jordan, and israel will all have to team up to even have any chance at all

    • @DS-sn9jk
      @DS-sn9jk Месяц назад +4

      @@MattMajcan Kinda a long title for that science fiction book you're writing. Lololol.

    • @octonoozle
      @octonoozle Месяц назад +1

      Iran Dome

    • @DS-sn9jk
      @DS-sn9jk Месяц назад

      @@octonoozle they might be catching warheads on their foreheads. Lololol

  • @porthose2002
    @porthose2002 Месяц назад +1

    May I make a topic suggestion, please? With Iran sending 300 missiles and drones Israel's way and 5 to 7 countries involved in shooting them down, how was the coordination performed between the nations to ensure that each incoming was handled in priority order and without overlap? One of the things that stands out to me is that all of these militaries were able to work together in what seems like a seamless manner to address a single high intensity event. I'd love to learn more about that. Thanks for all of your work, Alex!

  • @opsecactual6269
    @opsecactual6269 Месяц назад

    Nicely put my friend

  • @ricky1231
    @ricky1231 Месяц назад +4

    The cost of interception should factor in the cost of the damage that was prevented or assets protected. If that is included then interceptor missiles are almost always cost effective!!!!! Especially whilst intercepting cruise missiles or ballistic missiles that have more distructive effects & are themselves more expensive to produce

    • @raidellcorps
      @raidellcorps Месяц назад

      that is true but the thing here is how fast and costly is for a state to replenish the stocks of interceptors missiles vs how fast and costly is to procure more drones and offensive missiles.
      Kinda like having a sprint runner vs a endurance runner... sort of.

    • @TeoUnreleased
      @TeoUnreleased Месяц назад

      @@raidellcorpspeople act like they don’t have a stockpile of the same missiles waiting to be loaded the Patriot missile system should be a prime example since they have been reportedly made 10,000 missiles

    • @fakecubed
      @fakecubed 7 дней назад +2

      The cost savings of what might have been hit is amortized over the length of a conflict, and essentially falls to zero cost savings, because the whole point of financial attrition is that one side can more cheaply attack, and continue attacking indefinitely while the more expensive defense eventually runs out. In a one-off attack, you can call that a savings. In a lengthy conflict, eventually one of those attacking missiles gets through and hits the thing anyway.

  • @Lizardforce
    @Lizardforce Месяц назад +14

    Great as always Alex!

  • @johnking4221
    @johnking4221 Месяц назад

    Excellent reporting

  • @petegossett5494
    @petegossett5494 Месяц назад +2

    I appreciate these videos where you really dig into the dollars & cents behind defense.

  • @blakegoulds8313
    @blakegoulds8313 Месяц назад +11

    I keep hearing "99 percent intercepted" yet 7 made it to target out of 300. That's less than 98 percent intercepted.

    • @lukefiggins6851
      @lukefiggins6851 Месяц назад +11

      '7 made it to Israel' is what he said, he did not say that 7 hit their targets. Missiles neutralised 1 mile from its target does as much damage to the target as a missile neutralised 100 miles from the target.

    • @Vexas345
      @Vexas345 Месяц назад +2

      It was allegedly around 320, but the public doesn't have exact figures anyway. But I would've said 95%+ so people wouldn't squabble over a few irrelevant percentage points. Anything over 90% is fantastic.

    • @horstnietzsche1923
      @horstnietzsche1923 Месяц назад +1

      You are correct the real rate would be 97.7% assuming those numbers are exact. People often use hyperbolic phrases instead of accurate ones.

  • @sethb3090
    @sethb3090 Месяц назад +28

    It annoys me when people say an interceptor missile is way more expensive than a drone, and therefore not worth it.
    You know what's way more expensive than an interceptor missile? _A fully loaded and crewed cargo ship where real people might die on top of that_

    • @KSmithwick1989
      @KSmithwick1989 Месяц назад +3

      Except there weren't cargo ships involved, and that's not the point of the argument. Which is the defending side will go broke, while the attacker doesn't have to spend as much.

    • @sethb3090
      @sethb3090 Месяц назад +4

      @@KSmithwick1989 I wasn't talking about this attack specifically, just the rhetoric around intercepts in general. Most of that recently has been about Houthi missiles and drones.

    • @williamwchuang
      @williamwchuang Месяц назад +3

      The point is that you run out of interceptors before the cheap missiles. How are you missing that?

    • @sethb3090
      @sethb3090 Месяц назад +1

      @@williamwchuang yeah, it's always easier to throw things at someone than to stop them without hurting them

    • @buildmotosykletist1987
      @buildmotosykletist1987 Месяц назад +1

      @KSmithwick1989 : Why do you Islmc bots always use Western names? Are you that ashamed of your Islmc name?

  • @dylanwho
    @dylanwho Месяц назад +1

    On behalf of the internet, we absolutely love nuance and especially context. Thanks for the great work as always.

  • @Musix4me-Clarinet
    @Musix4me-Clarinet Месяц назад +1

    I can't find my earlier post, but well said.

  • @williamurbanblackiii1729
    @williamurbanblackiii1729 Месяц назад +13

    I think with the proliferation of directed energy air defense systems there will be much less of this sentiment that it costs the defender more to defend themselves than it takes for the attacker to conduct the attack

    • @hanrockabrand95
      @hanrockabrand95 Месяц назад +1

      No one is fielding those systems yet, and we don't know how effective they'll be in real world conditions. If they do work well, then yes. But it's also going to take a lot of successes before it offsets the R&D costs.

    • @williamurbanblackiii1729
      @williamurbanblackiii1729 Месяц назад +2

      @@hanrockabrand95 I think they've been fielded in some warships of the USN and Chinese navy. I'm skeptical about the effectiveness too, but they wouldn't be pursued so hard if they didn't prove themselves yk

    • @IndigoSeirra
      @IndigoSeirra Месяц назад +1

      Drones are the only thing that might be affected by lasers. They are slow enough to allow for the long engagement times a laser needs, and also doesn't have any thermal shielding, like most missiles do.
      As for missiles, no. Only the smallest of those will be even slightly affected.

    • @toddn.3123
      @toddn.3123 Месяц назад +2

      Directed energy weapons (DEWs) present a unique set of challenges in military applications, primarily due to their limited range. The effectiveness of DEWs decreases with distance, necessitating a significant increase in power output to maintain their impact on distant targets. Moreover, the atmospheric conditions through which the laser travels can cause deflection and deformation of the beam, further complicating the targeting process. This means that operators must maintain the laser on the target for an extended period to deliver enough energy to inflict damage, akin to trying to burn a moving ant with a magnifying glass while clouds intermittently block the sun. Given these difficulties, the future of mid-range defense may lie in the development of magnetic railguns equipped with maneuverable projectiles. These railguns offer a more feasible and cost-effective solution for intercepting targets at medium distances, potentially becoming the go-to technology in the near future.... only time will tell!

    • @williamurbanblackiii1729
      @williamurbanblackiii1729 Месяц назад

      @@IndigoSeirra the technology is constantly improving. I don't mean the lasers of today, I mean the lasers of tomorrow

  • @qigong1001
    @qigong1001 Месяц назад +113

    Iran just proved their offense is useless. Never seen such weakness.

    • @Hidden-truth-revealed
      @Hidden-truth-revealed Месяц назад +13

      They did not even try to be offense

    • @hanrockabrand95
      @hanrockabrand95 Месяц назад

      I don't put much stock in Iran's tech, but this recent attack wasn't designed to beat Israel. It was just a warning shot. Otherwise they wouldn't have warned anyone, and they wouldn't have narrated the start and stop of the attack.

    • @killingyouwithlogic5808
      @killingyouwithlogic5808 Месяц назад +26

      @@Hidden-truth-revealed Thats a stupid thing to say!!! 350 Missiles and drones launched is 100% offensive!

    • @B01
      @B01 Месяц назад

      ​@@Hidden-truth-revealed 60 tons, they sent over 60 tons of explosives. How you see that as "not offensive" is something those of us based in civilization will never understand

    • @Cryosxify
      @Cryosxify Месяц назад +17

      ​@@killingyouwithlogic5808one that was telegraphed to prevent escalation

  • @geronim00
    @geronim00 Месяц назад

    Awesome video, subscribed 😊

  • @jamesharris8951
    @jamesharris8951 Месяц назад

    Nicely Done!

  • @The_ZeroLine
    @The_ZeroLine Месяц назад +33

    Did just Iran?

  • @givemeabreak8784
    @givemeabreak8784 Месяц назад +28

    Now let's see how good the Iranian defense is. Shall we?

  • @josecuervo3351
    @josecuervo3351 Месяц назад

    Brilliant analysis!

  • @michaelrtreat
    @michaelrtreat Месяц назад

    Great analysis

  • @luckyno888
    @luckyno888 Месяц назад +6

    All said ... an expensive fireworks display.

    • @benmurray8903
      @benmurray8903 Месяц назад

      Might be expensive for Israel as far as cost of munitions expended, but Iran just suffered the cost of poor QC with how many failures occurred in Iranian munitions before they reached their targets.

  • @smisma4600
    @smisma4600 Месяц назад +9

    The US's gdp is 50 times that of Iran, so yeah the west can afford that cost exchange ratio.

    • @Cryosxify
      @Cryosxify Месяц назад +1

      the West can, can Israel

    • @walkingcarpet420
      @walkingcarpet420 Месяц назад +1

      Cool, how many billion dollar days do you think the US & Israel can afford?

    • @randomuser5443
      @randomuser5443 Месяц назад +2

      @@walkingcarpet420infinity.

    • @IndigoSeirra
      @IndigoSeirra Месяц назад +1

      ​@@walkingcarpet420They can decide to permanently stop paying billions on interceptors any time they want.

    • @Charles-pf7zy
      @Charles-pf7zy Месяц назад +1

      Uhhh, we voters have power too. If we don’t wanna spend x% of our tax dollars on intercepting Iranian missiles then we’re gonna vote somebody else In.

  • @B-leafer
    @B-leafer Месяц назад

    Awesome analysis

  • @danlemke6407
    @danlemke6407 Месяц назад

    That's a hell of a headline.

  • @abdiganiaden
    @abdiganiaden Месяц назад +5

    We are loving in an age where the sword is outpacing the shield
    Of course defending costs much higher

  • @AscenderPrime
    @AscenderPrime Месяц назад +3

    It was a calculated warning clearly

  • @scottfrost6537
    @scottfrost6537 Месяц назад

    New segment LETS GOOOO

  • @rockliberty7555
    @rockliberty7555 Месяц назад

    Thanks!

  • @howhigh0521
    @howhigh0521 Месяц назад +6

    Read that tittle and tell me what’s wrong with it😂

    • @The_ZeroLine
      @The_ZeroLine Месяц назад +5

      Tittle?

    • @andyk939
      @andyk939 Месяц назад +1

      @@The_ZeroLine lol

    • @deanknight7133
      @deanknight7133 Месяц назад

      That's how you know we are in the matrix and this is just propaganda

    • @jamesjross
      @jamesjross Месяц назад

      You're both morons?

    • @jamesjross
      @jamesjross Месяц назад +1

      @@The_ZeroLine face plam

  • @jerseyshoredroneservices225
    @jerseyshoredroneservices225 Месяц назад +4

    We used about $1B worth of missiles. SM3s aint cheap...

    • @Myth1c1003
      @Myth1c1003 Месяц назад +2

      The math ain't mathing, it's about $4M for a SM3

    • @IndigoSeirra
      @IndigoSeirra Месяц назад +2

      My manz are pulling numbers out of their ass. According to official sites, each sm3 costs around 9.6 million. US officials stated 4 to 7 sm3s were used to defend against Iran's missiles. That means it cost at most 67.2 million or at least 38.4 million. That's a far cry from 1 billion, but still a lot of money.

    • @jerseyshoredroneservices225
      @jerseyshoredroneservices225 Месяц назад

      @@Myth1c1003
      My name isn't Perune LOL
      My comment was just making a point not presenting a P & L statement lol

  • @silenciummortum2193
    @silenciummortum2193 Месяц назад +1

    I LOVE this channel…

  • @captjinxmarine9832
    @captjinxmarine9832 Месяц назад +15

    Iran suffers from failure to launch syndrome.

    • @willythemailboy2
      @willythemailboy2 Месяц назад

      Might be more appropriate to call it launching to failure.

  • @Strykenine
    @Strykenine Месяц назад +12

    All Iran managed to show is that when you attack one member of an alliance, you aren't really attacking one member of an alliance.

    • @Justanotherconsumer
      @Justanotherconsumer Месяц назад +3

      Except that Israel has burned bridges with a lot of their allies so… don’t expect too much.

    • @Strykenine
      @Strykenine Месяц назад +9

      @@Justanotherconsumer Oh, I had no idea. Someone should tell France, the UK and the USA before this happens again.

    • @KSmithwick1989
      @KSmithwick1989 Месяц назад +1

      ​@@Strykenine It's kind of subjective with France and the UK. As they're more concerned with Ukraine, which is in an actual war.

    • @Strykenine
      @Strykenine Месяц назад +2

      @@KSmithwick1989 Hey bro I think you should know that Iran has been supplying some of the drones the Russians have been using. This isn't widely known among certain groups of people, and I think you might be in one of those groups.
      Tell your friends.

    • @KSmithwick1989
      @KSmithwick1989 Месяц назад

      @@Strykenine Correct Shahed 131/136 are known in Russian service as Geran-1/2.

  • @benjaminmiller6376
    @benjaminmiller6376 Месяц назад +1

    Love this analysis

    • @billhanna2148
      @billhanna2148 Месяц назад

      Actually this was a BRILLIANT job by Iran as it gets to "say" it is done with its reprisals against Israel AND it gives Netanyahu ZERO cause to do anything...ask Biden

  • @marksanney2088
    @marksanney2088 Месяц назад

    Very interesting report, my friend. Greatly appreciated the manner in which you broke down the numbers.
    Thank you again for your informative, accurate and objective vlogs.
    👍🏻🇺🇸🦅🇺🇸👍🏻

  • @allenhayesmusic
    @allenhayesmusic Месяц назад +4

    Foreign Policy: FAFO

  • @danielb9545
    @danielb9545 Месяц назад

    Well said

  • @csonracsonra9962
    @csonracsonra9962 Месяц назад +3

    They're name is I Ran, I rest my case

  • @jaanikaapa6925
    @jaanikaapa6925 Месяц назад +5

    They didn't fail in kinetic diplomacy. Iran won. Israel's defense shows that they are actually paper tiger. They are a super power in the region, still it took Israel, Saudis, USA, Jordania and so on to keep the status quo in the region.
    Remember, Iran informed about the attack, they told the attack sources, times and locations. Iran never wanted it to succeed in damage. They did, however, show Israel's weakness in its own defense. What if there hadn't been any announcements?

    • @tedarcher9120
      @tedarcher9120 Месяц назад +1

      You think US wouldn't know if Iran didn't tell them? They only told because they knew US knew anyway and they would look bad

    • @jaanikaapa6925
      @jaanikaapa6925 Месяц назад

      @@tedarcher9120 USA is different from Saudis and Jordania, etc. US would have known something was up. The scope would have overwhelmed them... And really, USA has a history of ignoring the evidence that lead into bad things.

    • @RANDO4743
      @RANDO4743 Месяц назад

      Iran didn't inform anybody of anything,it was a MASSIVE failure

    • @ChucksSEADnDEAD
      @ChucksSEADnDEAD Месяц назад +1

      Holy mother of cope, batman!

    • @jaanikaapa6925
      @jaanikaapa6925 Месяц назад

      @@ChucksSEADnDEAD Huh?

  • @robertbollinger3702
    @robertbollinger3702 Месяц назад

    They just proved that nobody can.

  • @samueldysart
    @samueldysart Месяц назад

    Cool. I like the analysis. Make a video on production time of each missile and drone used. On both sides.
    Time is hard to get around compared to money.

  • @alordswatchman
    @alordswatchman Месяц назад +3

    Once Mighty Russia can't defend Moscow, St.Petersburg or Crimea. Tiny Israel performed a miracle with the help from a few friends.

    • @paulflocken2730
      @paulflocken2730 Месяц назад

      What a shame those few friends won't help Ukraine.

  • @VIPK9
    @VIPK9 Месяц назад +4

    United States sent them the iron dome and all the ammunition used for it, I have a feeling US is not going to keep wanting to send then more Ammo and Iron domes if they keeps going

    • @notanymore9471
      @notanymore9471 Месяц назад +1

      Iron Dome is an Israeli system and it doesn’t use “ammunition” it fires missiles. The US has the patriot system.

    • @phartbay327
      @phartbay327 Месяц назад

      Can Iran keep going financially?

    • @bradcraig5111
      @bradcraig5111 Месяц назад

      Not going to happen.

    • @RobertTapia
      @RobertTapia Месяц назад +2

      Not if Israel keeps going against what USA tells them. USA said stop, yahuu said no! Pull the financial aid then... No?

    • @the_rzh
      @the_rzh Месяц назад +1

      Iron Dome is an israeli system. The US had two batteries it had evaluated for base-defense but never deployed so they were sent back. Israel wanted to use US aid money to build Iron Dome rockets, but that's not how US aid works. Israel has to buy from US defense industry, so they contracted with Raytheon to build the rockets at higher cost. This way US funds get spent in the US.

  • @RedSinter
    @RedSinter Месяц назад

    Excellent accessmejt 18:31 to Alex.

  • @uncommonlogic1698
    @uncommonlogic1698 Месяц назад

    Never in my life did I think " hold on I am using my 45, what other cheaper bullets do I have?"
    It's a budgetary analysis metric, like forecasting sales.

  • @marcobruni2680
    @marcobruni2680 Месяц назад

    Fair analysis

  • @andrewcliffe4753
    @andrewcliffe4753 Месяц назад

    I am not particularly fascinated by this subject but I always watch it first because of Alex brilliant delivery

  • @mortezamoradi3514
    @mortezamoradi3514 Месяц назад

    Peace is very expensive where diplomacy is absent.

  • @exmcairgunner
    @exmcairgunner Месяц назад

    The closing statement really nailed it, people just don’t have a stomach for reality.

  • @daleb5967
    @daleb5967 Месяц назад

    Video liked. Good job.

  • @jmanj3917
    @jmanj3917 Месяц назад

    17:40 Very true, Brother.

  • @ycplum7062
    @ycplum7062 Месяц назад

    There is another thing to consider, the training value and system assessment data of the coalition forces. While the value is difficult to convert to money, they are quite valuable.

  • @TheIcanMan706
    @TheIcanMan706 Месяц назад

    Another winner Alex.

  • @Sitzenleben
    @Sitzenleben Месяц назад

    Also lives were saved and those lives are priceless

  • @thomasmcdonald9022
    @thomasmcdonald9022 Месяц назад +2

    Interesting 😮

  • @Musix4me-Clarinet
    @Musix4me-Clarinet Месяц назад +1

    _I feel heard!_
    Just a note: I did not necessarily believe Iran was winning anything outside of the financial exchange. I realize the bigger picture is grim for Iran.

  • @benjones4365
    @benjones4365 Месяц назад

    $50 mil is an expensive fireworks show

  • @privacyvalued4134
    @privacyvalued4134 Месяц назад +1

    If you want to experience what Alex is talking about for yourself, play Creeper World or a similar resource flow RTS. In Creeper World, the player can sustain a significant energy deficit for a very long time with only mild negative effects. It's possible to do that because more energy is constantly being brought in to replenish what is being used up. Most RTS games aren't suitable for this demonstration because they require resources to be stockpiled before the game will allow construction whereas resource flow RTS games create resource starvation opportunities as the game progresses and the battle expands further and further away from the main base.

  • @skaboodlydoodle
    @skaboodlydoodle Месяц назад +1

    Economics is always a factor of war.

  • @Ding63
    @Ding63 Месяц назад +1

    Rather than comparing money spent as a percent of gdp, id like to see if what is spent is a good use of resources to achieve its strategic goal and like you said we dont know exactly what the goal is. But if its to maintaine face in light of the consulate attack then i consider that achieved

  • @sarinulek6816
    @sarinulek6816 Месяц назад

    Think what they proved is that the factories that make these drones and missiles are important targets .

  • @purexhavoc9777
    @purexhavoc9777 Месяц назад

    people compare cost for cost without taking into account the potential cost of damage of property and lives that were prevented.

  • @leifsoderman5065
    @leifsoderman5065 Месяц назад

    Thanks, I look a bit more at the targets value, since we dont know those its hard to calcuate the actuall cost of defence.

  • @daleb5967
    @daleb5967 Месяц назад

    One of the first thoughts on my mind...

  • @_sanpersia
    @_sanpersia Месяц назад

    نواتیم منهدم شده است ❤❤❤

  • @wbball15
    @wbball15 Месяц назад +1

    Hey, Hollings, hope you're doing well.
    Scrooge McDuck was a great clip.

  • @mcs131313
    @mcs131313 Месяц назад

    @sandboxxapp have you done a similar analysis of shipping attacks in the Red Sea? Obviously much cheaper attacks, but also dramatically smaller budget. I assume missile resupply more the issue vs cost?

  • @joevaccaro6655
    @joevaccaro6655 Месяц назад

    Quality broadcasting 💯. I’ve heard Marine Corps pilots say there is a lot of overlap between themselves and Navy pilots, and some even say “no difference.” I understand they are both Naval Aviators, but is there any difference between them?

  • @beeflow2638
    @beeflow2638 Месяц назад

    So, in conflicts between nations, all assets are on the table at all times. Good perspective, good philosophy, good morality.

  • @njgrplr2007
    @njgrplr2007 Месяц назад

    Lockheed Martin can't deliver that 500 kw laser fast enough.

  • @homeloanfinance
    @homeloanfinance Месяц назад

    Wait... what... "firepower". I thought this was airpower.