"Life expectancy was 19 a thousand years ago." Yes, because about half of people died in infancy. Those who made it to adulthood had a reasonable chance of living to old age. Emperor Augustus died at 76 and Pharaoh Ramses II lived to 90.
@@marble4533 True, there are exceptions in every age. Until the 1800s, life expectancy in Europe was around 30-40. Walk around any graveyard and you'll see plenty of tombstones from that period of people who lived into their 60s and 70s, and not all of them were well-off (although I suppose they were sufficiently affluent not to end up in a ditch.)
Exceptions are not the rule. Both people were leaders of their respective civilizations and lived in the lap of luxury. It's easy to live to 76 when you aren't slaving away in a field or exchanging sword blows with an enemy soldier.
As long as children die from diarrhea on this planet, the problem will not be technology but sharing it. We need to grow spiritually and overcome capitalism. Competition has brought us this far, but can't go any further.
I agree, Capitalism will be replaced by a new economy based on abundance rather than scarcity, This will be made possible by AI making things so easy they become cheaper and cheaper until effectivly free.
@@dotailsBut free is not wanted. Profit is wanted. And power. Power can only be held with constantly increasing profits. So I doubt "free" will ever be accomplished if the base idea is profit. At the moment it looks likely that we will go back into medieval times with modern monarchy of big money.
19:15 (vivra plus lgt,) 22:10 (3d clothes, second open sourcfree market) 24:33 (3d food ) 26:13 (before 2030 only renewable solar low cost energy) 27:50 land, 28:26 (vr , augmented reality by 2030 will be as good a reality) 28:54 (nanobots) 31:40 (atomic molecule) 32:20 (healthbook , 3bridge) 36:54 a 38:23 (41:45) (ai train himself n do better than human) 47:05 a 50:30(neocortex conected to cloud, 2030/40's, new form of music,language, art) 55:58 a 56:40 philosophy
25 years ago I read "the age of the spiritual machine" and was so excited by it, all these years later some how Ray has managed to make a compelling subject a boring meandering ted talk... We have also "accelerated" our knowledge on how to do a good speach as well, by knowing what to leave out as much as what to include.
Great to have humans like Kurzweil. Maybe many people will disagree but people like him open up possibilities when most are stuck into their present challenges.
I agree. Even if some of his ideas are... fantastical, I dont think it matters all that much because it spurs people to strive towards something better which is better than 99% of politicians
In the future of humanity one has to accept one’s hair loss and stop trying to restore one’s hair with artificial means as Ray Kurzweil seems to constantly be doing.
Jean-Luc Picard (in Star Trek: The Next Generation) is totally bald and seems happy with it. I find it amusing that in the future they have faster-than-light travel and replicators that can produce anything, but they still haven't found a cure for baldness.
Nah, the point of the future we want is that we become free from nature and able to create our own reality, if we want hair, we will have it, we can beat nature like we have done with other diseases, the point is to cure them all.
My predictions are based on needs, which will identify what vacuums need to be filled, but also help prioritize the order that they'll be filled. 3d printed clothes have existed for years but the demand for printed clothing it's very low so the development priority follows, there are other demands that are very high and so that will be the priority of innovation. For example AI is fulfilling an inexpensive labor shortage. Even printed food may become mainstream before clothing. 3D printed clothing does exist there's just no demand for it because it doesn't fulfill a core need better than what we have.
33:00 He forgot Bridge #0: Earn enough money to pay for the life extension. By definition only the top 1% can get it, otherwise there will be not enough resources...
The deflation will follow the 1% which he says is only 7 doublings from 100% lol. Deflation will run all prices to $0 thanks to AI driving it down by taking over key labor.
All that has happened in just 6 years, imagine all the other stuff that’s gonna happen with AI by 2030. And actually a lot more is gonna happen in that time span because it’s improving exponentially.
As "non-biological intelligence" accelerates, what is the risk of the biological atrophying? Around 50 minutes into this the speaker compares the increased capacity we will supposedly have (our capacity or the machine's to which we're linked?) to the increased capacity that came with the evolution of the neocortex. The neocortex made us "smarter," in an intrinsic biological way, i.e., to be smarter our brains were working at it, doing something, developing capacity in themselves. Yes, sure, to get "smarter," our IT somewhat analogically "evolved," you might say (with a bit of help from Humanity) the "cloud" that exponentially increased their capacity. Like with like. Physical brains growing as brains, and technology also "growing" as technology. But when you insert technology into the biological, technology that feeds information to the biological with no effort by the biological required, then what is the biological doing? What is it learning? How is it developing? What is it finally producing, in terms of both sheer physical development and authentic human innovation? When our creations are finally creating us, do we ever create anything again? And if and when the Machine fails, do we ever know how to DO anything again? By the way, while "humanity" (all of it?) is luxuriating in this IT-AI-Shangri-La of realized virtuality, with food, housing, clothing, arts, everything apparently provided at the press of a button...who's manufacturing the buttons? The wires? The goop that fills the 3-D printers? Who's going down the mine shafts to get the raw materials? Who's planting and picking the cotton and flax and corn and wheat and brussels sprouts? Who's disposing of the waste and garbage? Even if a lot of this is somehow likewise "technologized," who's pushing the buttons that make the buttons, and who knows how to fix them--never mind "fix them," start from scratch, if the Machine fizzles out? In what way is humanity evolving when it no longer knows how to do anything independently of its "toys"? In a world where everybody can tell their "AI guide" to produce something better than a Da Vinci, will there ever be another Da Vinci? Someone might say, "Why do you need another human Da Vinci if your virtual brain can always outdo him anyway? Why not just enjoy your transcendent power now that you've evolved into the New Techno-Human? Why waste time on nostalgia for more primitive stages of evolution? We never pined, in the 1960s, for the good old days before there were cars, television or for that matter pennicilin." Ah, but that is simply to beg the question, indeed to expose wildly unexamined assumptions. What is my "virtual brain"? Clearly it's not MY brain but an artifact attached to my brain, it's NOT "my power," so on what basis can you call this an evolution at all? So the whole premise that I'm pining after some "earlier stage" of evolution is specious. Telling my AI guide to produce something better than a Da Vinci is no more a matter of 'my' transcendent capacity than it is to watch a football game on television and cheer wildly when "We won!" I wasn't on the playing field, I didn't actually win anything. I was a mere spectator. Does turning us all into life's spectators rather than genuine players "evolve" us into "couch potatoes" at a catastrophically existential level in comparison with which the traditional, chips-munching, channel-surfing couch potato will turn out to have been a paragon of human drive and initiative? And, of course it need hardly be said, the most blood-chilling note is struck even in the verbalization of a question like "Why do you need another human Da Vinci?" with its implicit assumption that...we don't. When authentic human greatness is rendered either impossible or, quite darkly, antagonist to the Machine, concepts like "evolution" may continue to mean something but not to us.
Interesting perspective. I developed an idea, Preemptive Ethics, It would be unacceptable to allow for the chance that starvation to happen, so it is best to prepare assets for rainy days, for example storing enough food for every human that none would starve long enough to rebuild food sources. And keep humans educated and physically fit, enough to rebuild technology. This could be an interesting third example, keep humans locally rewarded for improoving their mental softweare including creativity. When cameras came out the demand for paintings went down, but creativity didn't. In fact it increased, there is a flow state that is only possible if teh try and try again loop is fast enough. After the first 2 months of using midjourney my creativity exponentially increased, It was like a fish that only grew to the size of the tank, I was holding myself back because it took so long to realize my creative sparks that I dismissed many of them before trying them. Humans will be exploring and creating a virtual space, as they explore the AI can sharpen us by what it adds to the world.
Funny how a well experienced scientist can just explain as much as someone that just like to watch youtube videos about science. I literraly learning nothing new watching this whole video and most of it is not even about the future but about the present or past.
What about climate change and politics and the Gaza and Ukraine wars? This talk is incredibly short-sighted and dated, taking old information and playing around with it. In my opinion, it’s the duty of Kurzwell and others to use their intelligence to find solutions to these problems that are affecting most people who live here on our planet. For example, the climate crisis is bringing an energy crisis and there will be blackouts and not enough energy to power the supercomputers who do the hard work of operationalizing our smart phones and the wonderful technology Kurzwell talks about. He’s in a fantasy world that can’t happen here at this time with all the environmental, political, social, and economic problems we’re struggling with.
The latest plan I've heard is a Climat Control Net by using literal umbrella satellites to reflect sunlight in a digital manner, earths thermostat. Pretty cool and feasible.
Politics can be aided by tech but usually indirectly, like homes that aren't made of powder(sheetrock) but instead indestructible shell layers. VR will shift a majority of assault into a realm that does no real harm.
10 years ago people were really dogging him for how he looked and talked saying he seems old... im not joking when i say this, he seems to have not aged...
if we become immortal, how do you solve the problem of stopping newborns / child procreation to happen? because otherwise we get an exponential population growth
Children are not a problem they are a blessing, but humanity growth does slow due the metaverse(virtual universe). Earth can support so much more people than we have, and we are currently in a human shortage due to the fear mongering of the 90s. Also as we expand and become space fairing we unlock access to virtually limitless resources and space.
@@JPJosefPictures Birth rates tend to go down IF populations become more wealthy because everyone doesn't need five kids to take care of them when they get old. So how wealthy are the average people of Africa and India? - In China birth rates go down just because of depression because young people only have the outlook of working themselves into the ground. - My hope is that China actually develops a synergy with Africa so that continant can finally catch up with technology and solid infrastructure for the needs of the people.
@@murc111 I hoped we get AGI september 2024, but o1 was just a bit close. So I think 29 is the date. in 99 it seemed crazy to people and now everyone wants it haha.
My predictions are based on needs, which will identify what vacuums need to be filled, but also help prioritize the order that they'll be filled. The demand for printed clothing it's very low, there are other demands that are very high and so that will be the priority of innovation. For example AI is fulfilling an inexpensive labor shortage. Even printed food may become mainstream before clothing. 3D printed clothing does exist there's just no demand for it because it doesn't fulfill a core need better than what we have.
we do have 3d printing getting very popular, even I have one. While no 3D printed clothes available, you can buy a 3D printed house, I've seen some tool accessories that are 3D printed, and just the other day Wilson said they will sell 3D printed (airless) basketballs....and they look pretty damn cool.
@@knpstrr Yeah? Printing isn't for cost as mass production is more efficient cost wise. The 3D printed clothes are more about customizability and novelty and recycling. AI will drive down the price and obsolete the need for mass production.
@@dotails Yes, in his presentation he said it would be here by now, that is what I was referring to. Coincidentally, I saw on the news last night a story about 3D printed hair follicles
After smoothing the entire history of iphone it has gone from $2516.67 per GFLOP to $0.0504 per GFLOP, The iPhone 15 Pro Max is 79,333 times faster and 49,960 times cheaper than the iPhone 1 per flop.
@@dotails you are comparing last to first I would like to see the claim as it is my iPhone XS is like half as powerful as 14pro and price has been about the same when came out
He did not expect the wars forcing us to spend resources on manufacturing weapons instead on all these good technologies... Did he underestimate human stupidity?
bro WWI and WWII didnt change anything about the law of accelerating returns and the Ukraine War wont either. Its not like the whole US industry shifts to wartime production lol. and we dont need russia for reaching the singularity. I think AGI and ASI will come from the US and I am absolutely looking forward to it!
You know, that whole screens and loud sounds on the stage definitely takes away from the feeling of seriousness of the presentation. When you want to get some sort of valuable insight and wisdom it should not feel like being at a IMAX movie theater.
It doesn’t matter how much the technology advances and inventions create abundance, it won’t help a new born unless it is able to access it to thrive on its own for the human species to survive. In addition to human rights, the UN 🇺🇳 needs to ensure along with its sustainability goals, a mechanism to not only include the unborn but empower them alike the adults. 🎉😢😅😊
@@dotailskeep up the hard work 😮 To incentivize this project, would it benefit to compensate women for carrying the babies to term? By so compensating, we can ensure both the health and welfare of women and babies without having them to go to court to force the men to pay for their support. It would also benefit men by ensuring their mental health is not adversely affected by their failure to support their women during pregnancy, right?
@@balasubr2252 Go for it, I'm sure they would appreciate it. Prolife orgs like students for life raise resources to support mothers. Providing ultrasounds and counseling, clothes, diapers, and formula for example.
@@dotailsIts not enough. A field of economics, perhaps called nano economics might be needed to arbitrage the political and social imbalances between various groups to bring about equality and equilibrium for everyone and everything.
@@dotails Isn’t there an economic view, that there is no free lunch 🥪? Why ask for donations when there is an economic view that society has to pay 💰 for things and should not steal from private people? Not compensating women for their absolute advantage of providing fetuses a home till their birth seems to be a form of slavey isn’t it?
What if we're in a massive spaceship floating in empty space. Hooked onto a simulator to maintain our sanity and prevent us from a mass suicide in the last human mothership 😯 when were born we come from the unknown, maybe when we "die" were return to the unknown.🤷♂️
Shame on Ray for suggesting progress is unimpeded by existing industries stuck in the innovators dilemma. We’ve been watching EVs be a viable alternative to ICE cars since the 90s. We’ve been watching established auto manufactures kill it off since the 90s. Why would you suggest that the established health insurance industry, pharmaceutical industry, and medical industrial complex would allow technology to advance human health? We’ve already seen that Ray is wrong. The FDA banned most of what 23andME could do. The US banned stem cell research and we have movies about Pharma shutting down targeted peptide research. While Ray is no idiot, he clearly has ulterior motives to be so publicly wrong; whether those are conscious or not.
Well, well... Aren't we a Ray of sunshine. While I have different predictions, and while I can't give a date because many things can delay the inevitables, I can confidently share the future is bright, and in so many ways we are already living in the future. We have EVs already though they make little pollution difference until fusion(new tech) is distributed for powering them. Health Insurance is a scam, and the health system is outdated, and yet humanity survived covid with it. I am part of a health study now meant to push the assumed limits of health and we are going around the systems and setting up our own supply chains to make health viable today.(Just finished cooking up this weeks meals) The USA did not ban stemcell research, just unethical research that kills people, thankfully we learned how to revert cells back to a pluripotent state so we are right on track for serious innovation. If you need more brightside let me know.
@@dotails I suggest you read about 'congressional power to spend' regarding stem cell research before you spout your poorly informed opinions about a future that only exists in your head. The rest of us will continue to fight to make the better future happen. Cheers.
@@lwwells I am aware that the United States is quite mixed up when it comes to early human growth. Alabama for example has ruled that embryos are children under the law and deserve the rights and protections, while California would gladly murder them and experiment on them. But there's hope abundant, only two years ago Roe v Wade was overturned so the states are free to protect kids now.
@@dotails you find the overturning of Roe v Wade “hopeful”? My god, your certifiable my friend. Your idea of “protecting children” involves forcing minors to carry a baby to term after they’ve been raped? Get help.
you say that there is the medical industrial compley, but there isnt. There is a military industrial complex. But ignoring that for a moment, EVs are already an alternative to ICE cars. Ray isn't wrong either. Tell me what he is wrong about. About the printable clothes? haha if thats something you say is important than youre just stupid. the future is decentralized; UBI and PLE after that. If you dont want to be a part of that future, no problem, but you can still decide to be on the light side.
I'm supremely not impressed by this fella.. how bout show up ahead of time to test the stage out... just watched him on rogan and I it was impossibly bad.
24:49 what he is describing, IS MY IDEA for a company called ‘Next Generation’ which I spoke to a representative (Janet Reid) from CSIRO last year in 2023 about the exact details he is talking about,… even down to the medical science fields and reproduction of meat within a lab. This company is the start of a new Work Sector and will generate BILLIONS to TRILLIONS of dollars only if executed correctly… and without me, that will never happen and all attempts will fail or lead to a Global Financial Crisis.
That was the original title, this is a reupload for historical preservation since the original uploader deleted it. However he pitched visions from 10-35 years which matches the title so I don't see how this is not an excellent title. What are you most excited about for the future?
Ray looks like old looking 50 years old or very young looking 80 years old, either way there is something weird about him trying to defeat ageing and I don’t think it works the way it was intended.
@@barryyoung if there is know god do you believe the sun is there and gravity and what about the rest of the universe did you put those things where they are
@@edwardspence-fo8vtany life will find itself in a world tuned for its existence, you don't need a god for that, it's not a good argument to try and use online. He also doesn't think he's god or else he wouldn't have made a comment 17 minutes in that he wouldn't have to work as hard if he knew some kids in a college dorm would make a super powerful search engine, so your first comment wasn't even true
@@LiveWithEmory I know where you are coming from. But I believe in the facts the earth and the human race didn't get here by itself I believe what I believe and know one will change my mind. I'm not uneducated I have four advanced degrees in science pathology chemistry genetics and nuro molecular biology for two respected universities Berlin and University of Toronto and I work at Mt Sinai hospital
@@edwardspence-fo8vt if you have all of those credentials why is your spelling and grammar so poor in your reply to the other guy. it's not even typos, you straight up just used incorrect words a far less educated person wouldn't even, don't lie to back up a poor argument man. Even if your credentials were real the video still clearly proves Ray Kurzweil doesn't think he's god like I said.
For the first time in history an abundance base economy is soon to be possible thanks to AI. Life is getting good in the biggest picture. If you have fear about something specific feel free to share and we will help reframe for hope.
He’s actually an accomplished inventor and very intelligent. He has written many good books, one I have read and like very much is “The Singularity is Near”. Have a read of it, you might change your mind about the b.s. accusation.
My predictions are based on needs, which will identify what vacuums need to be filled, but also help prioritize the order that they'll be filled. The demand for printed clothing it's very low, there are other demands that are very high and so that will be the priority of innovation. For example AI is fulfilling an inexpensive labor shortage. Even printed food may become mainstream before clothing. 3D printed clothing does exist there's just no demand for it because it doesn't fulfill a core need better than what we have.
You're welcome to join our discord.com/invite/dXkSYT8jea
I find him rather humble given his accomplishments. Great presentation.
Thank you
The speech that keeps on speeching. I think I know this speech word for word by now. 😂
"Life expectancy was 19 a thousand years ago."
Yes, because about half of people died in infancy. Those who made it to adulthood had a reasonable chance of living to old age. Emperor Augustus died at 76 and Pharaoh Ramses II lived to 90.
I doubt those elite figures could represent the average person's lifestyle back then
@@marble4533 True, there are exceptions in every age. Until the 1800s, life expectancy in Europe was around 30-40. Walk around any graveyard and you'll see plenty of tombstones from that period of people who lived into their 60s and 70s, and not all of them were well-off (although I suppose they were sufficiently affluent not to end up in a ditch.)
The same was true of hunter gatherers during prehistory.
Low life expectancy is largely due to infant mortality.
Exceptions are not the rule. Both people were leaders of their respective civilizations and lived in the lap of luxury. It's easy to live to 76 when you aren't slaving away in a field or exchanging sword blows with an enemy soldier.
@@jamesgravil9162but it was much much more likely to die from some disease along the way.
As long as children die from diarrhea on this planet, the problem will not be technology but sharing it. We need to grow spiritually and overcome capitalism. Competition has brought us this far, but can't go any further.
I agree, Capitalism will be replaced by a new economy based on abundance rather than scarcity, This will be made possible by AI making things so easy they become cheaper and cheaper until effectivly free.
@@dotailsBut free is not wanted. Profit is wanted. And power. Power can only be held with constantly increasing profits. So I doubt "free" will ever be accomplished if the base idea is profit. At the moment it looks likely that we will go back into medieval times with modern monarchy of big money.
Ray's new book The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI will be released on June 25, 2024.
Book now!
YES ✌
Can't wait!
We're merging already.
@@RobertHouse101 already? How! No!!
19:15 (vivra plus lgt,)
22:10 (3d clothes, second open sourcfree market)
24:33 (3d food )
26:13 (before 2030 only renewable solar low cost energy)
27:50 land,
28:26 (vr , augmented reality by 2030 will be as good a reality)
28:54 (nanobots)
31:40 (atomic molecule)
32:20 (healthbook , 3bridge)
36:54 a 38:23 (41:45) (ai train himself n do better than human)
47:05 a 50:30(neocortex conected to cloud, 2030/40's, new form of music,language, art)
55:58 a 56:40 philosophy
25 years ago I read "the age of the spiritual machine" and was so excited by it, all these years later some how Ray has managed to make a compelling subject a boring meandering ted talk...
We have also "accelerated" our knowledge on how to do a good speach as well, by knowing what to leave out as much as what to include.
Great to have humans like Kurzweil. Maybe many people will disagree but people like him open up possibilities when most are stuck into their present challenges.
I agree. Even if some of his ideas are... fantastical, I dont think it matters all that much because it spurs people to strive towards something better which is better than 99% of politicians
Mr.Kurzweil!Thank you share your best voice and work!Congratulation and Respect😍🌍🙏
Lol the start was like a EDM festival moment
Yeah it threw me off, loud too. Plus the lights are too bright, these Belgians are all over the place😂
In the future of humanity one has to accept one’s hair loss and stop trying to restore one’s hair with artificial means as Ray Kurzweil seems to constantly be doing.
Jean-Luc Picard (in Star Trek: The Next Generation) is totally bald and seems happy with it. I find it amusing that in the future they have faster-than-light travel and replicators that can produce anything, but they still haven't found a cure for baldness.
Nah, the point of the future we want is that we become free from nature and able to create our own reality, if we want hair, we will have it, we can beat nature like we have done with other diseases, the point is to cure them all.
@@jamesgravil9162Or he chooses the look as an historical signifier.
The captain preferred to be bald
Why insult the man’s appearance? He prefers to have the appearance of hair. Let him be.
This is very cool heavy stuff.
The fact that they call it the cloud which to me is just another machine
He didn’t see Covid coming obviously but this is very promising and inspiring still
Ray is a hero. What have you done?
Ray vs the spotlight
At 19:39, when using biotech regulation as an example of how we can safely approach the singularity aptly dates this video to pre pandemic 😅
For someone obsessed with longevity and anti aging he sure presents like an old 76. Is it the hair? The drab fit? Voice?
It's mid 2020's, where's my downloadable clothing?
My predictions are based on needs, which will identify what vacuums need to be filled, but also help prioritize the order that they'll be filled. 3d printed clothes have existed for years but the demand for printed clothing it's very low so the development priority follows, there are other demands that are very high and so that will be the priority of innovation. For example AI is fulfilling an inexpensive labor shortage. Even printed food may become mainstream before clothing. 3D printed clothing does exist there's just no demand for it because it doesn't fulfill a core need better than what we have.
@@dotailsIs that you Ray?
you could actually do it right now, but I don't want it.
33:00 He forgot Bridge #0: Earn enough money to pay for the life extension. By definition only the top 1% can get it, otherwise there will be not enough resources...
The deflation will follow the 1% which he says is only 7 doublings from 100% lol. Deflation will run all prices to $0 thanks to AI driving it down by taking over key labor.
no bro it'll be cheaper in the future and we will all get it if we want.
2018..
Stuf has happened since.
All that has happened in just 6 years, imagine all the other stuff that’s gonna happen with AI by 2030. And actually a lot more is gonna happen in that time span because it’s improving exponentially.
Optimists and Pessimists on the battlefield of the unknown. Turns out the futures will be actually peaches. Peaches!
The lighting guy took that request as a personal insult, I assure you.
And the camera guys and production team lol
As "non-biological intelligence" accelerates, what is the risk of the biological atrophying? Around 50 minutes into this the speaker compares the increased capacity we will supposedly have (our capacity or the machine's to which we're linked?) to the increased capacity that came with the evolution of the neocortex. The neocortex made us "smarter," in an intrinsic biological way, i.e., to be smarter our brains were working at it, doing something, developing capacity in themselves. Yes, sure, to get "smarter," our IT somewhat analogically "evolved," you might say (with a bit of help from Humanity) the "cloud" that exponentially increased their capacity. Like with like. Physical brains growing as brains, and technology also "growing" as technology. But when you insert technology into the biological, technology that feeds information to the biological with no effort by the biological required, then what is the biological doing? What is it learning? How is it developing? What is it finally producing, in terms of both sheer physical development and authentic human innovation? When our creations are finally creating us, do we ever create anything again? And if and when the Machine fails, do we ever know how to DO anything again? By the way, while "humanity" (all of it?) is luxuriating in this IT-AI-Shangri-La of realized virtuality, with food, housing, clothing, arts, everything apparently provided at the press of a button...who's manufacturing the buttons? The wires? The goop that fills the 3-D printers? Who's going down the mine shafts to get the raw materials? Who's planting and picking the cotton and flax and corn and wheat and brussels sprouts? Who's disposing of the waste and garbage? Even if a lot of this is somehow likewise "technologized," who's pushing the buttons that make the buttons, and who knows how to fix them--never mind "fix them," start from scratch, if the Machine fizzles out? In what way is humanity evolving when it no longer knows how to do anything independently of its "toys"? In a world where everybody can tell their "AI guide" to produce something better than a Da Vinci, will there ever be another Da Vinci? Someone might say, "Why do you need another human Da Vinci if your virtual brain can always outdo him anyway? Why not just enjoy your transcendent power now that you've evolved into the New Techno-Human? Why waste time on nostalgia for more primitive stages of evolution? We never pined, in the 1960s, for the good old days before there were cars, television or for that matter pennicilin." Ah, but that is simply to beg the question, indeed to expose wildly unexamined assumptions. What is my "virtual brain"? Clearly it's not MY brain but an artifact attached to my brain, it's NOT "my power," so on what basis can you call this an evolution at all? So the whole premise that I'm pining after some "earlier stage" of evolution is specious. Telling my AI guide to produce something better than a Da Vinci is no more a matter of 'my' transcendent capacity than it is to watch a football game on television and cheer wildly when "We won!" I wasn't on the playing field, I didn't actually win anything. I was a mere spectator. Does turning us all into life's spectators rather than genuine players "evolve" us into "couch potatoes" at a catastrophically existential level in comparison with which the traditional, chips-munching, channel-surfing couch potato will turn out to have been a paragon of human drive and initiative? And, of course it need hardly be said, the most blood-chilling note is struck even in the verbalization of a question like "Why do you need another human Da Vinci?" with its implicit assumption that...we don't. When authentic human greatness is rendered either impossible or, quite darkly, antagonist to the Machine, concepts like "evolution" may continue to mean something but not to us.
Interesting perspective. I developed an idea, Preemptive Ethics, It would be unacceptable to allow for the chance that starvation to happen, so it is best to prepare assets for rainy days, for example storing enough food for every human that none would starve long enough to rebuild food sources. And keep humans educated and physically fit, enough to rebuild technology. This could be an interesting third example, keep humans locally rewarded for improoving their mental softweare including creativity. When cameras came out the demand for paintings went down, but creativity didn't. In fact it increased, there is a flow state that is only possible if teh try and try again loop is fast enough. After the first 2 months of using midjourney my creativity exponentially increased, It was like a fish that only grew to the size of the tank, I was holding myself back because it took so long to realize my creative sparks that I dismissed many of them before trying them. Humans will be exploring and creating a virtual space, as they explore the AI can sharpen us by what it adds to the world.
@@dotails Well, let's hope so!
Beautiful! And equally terrifying
Funny how a well experienced scientist can just explain as much as someone that just like to watch youtube videos about science. I literraly learning nothing new watching this whole video and most of it is not even about the future but about the present or past.
The main point was evidence for the exponential rate of positive change.
So, new is important to you. Doesnt' reduce the importance of this video.
its not about learning as it is about seeing a brighter future.
Technology may advance exponentially, but Ray Kurzweil's tired old spiel changes at about the rate of one new sentence a year...
And using up the earths finite resources also increases exponentially.
I don't see squeaker's comment so I'm not sure what you are replying to but, the universe has plenty of resources, AI will help optimize the delivery.
@@dotails love your optimism!
true and thats why he said we need solar. solar is the only solid state generator we have btw.
What about climate change and politics and the Gaza and Ukraine wars? This talk is incredibly short-sighted and dated, taking old information and playing around with it. In my opinion, it’s the duty of Kurzwell and others to use their intelligence to find solutions to these problems that are affecting most people who live here on our planet. For example, the climate crisis is bringing an energy crisis and there will be blackouts and not enough energy to power the supercomputers who do the hard work of operationalizing our smart phones and the wonderful technology Kurzwell talks about. He’s in a fantasy world that can’t happen here at this time with all the environmental, political, social, and economic problems we’re struggling with.
Get to work on our real problems, Mr. Kurzwell!
The latest plan I've heard is a Climat Control Net by using literal umbrella satellites to reflect sunlight in a digital manner, earths thermostat. Pretty cool and feasible.
Politics can be aided by tech but usually indirectly, like homes that aren't made of powder(sheetrock) but instead indestructible shell layers. VR will shift a majority of assault into a realm that does no real harm.
@@dotailsBut we're ruled by stupid and it's not being done.
dude you're short sighted. these conflicts will end soon. also WWI and WWII didnt change anything about the law of accelerating returns.
10 years ago people were really dogging him for how he looked and talked saying he seems old... im not joking when i say this, he seems to have not aged...
This talk is 6 years old lol
maybe he got it just right with the pills then
if we become immortal, how do you solve the problem of stopping newborns / child procreation to happen? because otherwise we get an exponential population growth
Children are not a problem they are a blessing, but humanity growth does slow due the metaverse(virtual universe).
Earth can support so much more people than we have, and we are currently in a human shortage due to the fear mongering of the 90s.
Also as we expand and become space fairing we unlock access to virtually limitless resources and space.
birthrates are down, so nobody wants a child. theres no need tbh.
@@JPJosefPictures tell this to India, china, africa, brazil ...
@@galsoftware they will be going down
@@JPJosefPictures Birth rates tend to go down IF populations become more wealthy because everyone doesn't need five kids to take care of them when they get old. So how wealthy are the average people of Africa and India? - In China birth rates go down just because of depression because young people only have the outlook of working themselves into the ground. - My hope is that China actually develops a synergy with Africa so that continant can finally catch up with technology and solid infrastructure for the needs of the people.
These Marvel Villian justification speeches get more and more convincing each time!
Here we are in 2024 and he was a bit optimistic time wise. He's about 5 years out ?
I'm assuming you're talking about AGI? His 2029 prediction always seemed crazy...until November 22'. Current estimates place it around 2027.
Whose current estimates?
@@murc111 I hoped we get AGI september 2024, but o1 was just a bit close. So I think 29 is the date. in 99 it seemed crazy to people and now everyone wants it haha.
I love ray but he's been giving the same seminar since 1994...
Back then it was only 2 seconds long and a ticket cost 10,000 dollars
thank you Ray - Ron S
No 3d printing clothes in the mainstream it is 2024
My predictions are based on needs, which will identify what vacuums need to be filled, but also help prioritize the order that they'll be filled. The demand for printed clothing it's very low, there are other demands that are very high and so that will be the priority of innovation. For example AI is fulfilling an inexpensive labor shortage. Even printed food may become mainstream before clothing. 3D printed clothing does exist there's just no demand for it because it doesn't fulfill a core need better than what we have.
@@dotails If you can print quality clothes for pennies, people would buy it now
we do have 3d printing getting very popular, even I have one. While no 3D printed clothes available, you can buy a 3D printed house, I've seen some tool accessories that are 3D printed, and just the other day Wilson said they will sell 3D printed (airless) basketballs....and they look pretty damn cool.
@@knpstrr Yeah? Printing isn't for cost as mass production is more efficient cost wise. The 3D printed clothes are more about customizability and novelty and recycling. AI will drive down the price and obsolete the need for mass production.
@@dotails Yes, in his presentation he said it would be here by now, that is what I was referring to. Coincidentally, I saw on the news last night a story about 3D printed hair follicles
Twice as powerful iPhone for half the price in two years? Where is that deal?
After smoothing the entire history of iphone it has gone from $2516.67 per GFLOP to $0.0504 per GFLOP,
The iPhone 15 Pro Max is 79,333 times faster and 49,960 times cheaper than the iPhone 1 per flop.
@@dotails you are comparing last to first I would like to see the claim as it is my iPhone XS is like half as powerful as 14pro and price has been about the same when came out
every two years.
Love the hair Ray...❤😂
He did not expect the wars forcing us to spend resources on manufacturing weapons instead on all these good technologies... Did he underestimate human stupidity?
bro WWI and WWII didnt change anything about the law of accelerating returns and the Ukraine War wont either. Its not like the whole US industry shifts to wartime production lol. and we dont need russia for reaching the singularity. I think AGI and ASI will come from the US and I am absolutely looking forward to it!
You know, that whole screens and loud sounds on the stage definitely takes away from the feeling of seriousness of the presentation. When you want to get some sort of valuable insight and wisdom it should not feel like being at a IMAX movie theater.
It seems like he didn't like it either
Where are the slides he is referring to?
Periodically the camera switches to the slides.
you can see some but the cameras didnt show them...
That wig ain’t doin him no favors 😬😬😬
He has four shadows...meh😒
God Will NEVER back stolen Spiritually Earned Money!!
What do you mean?
dafuq?
Wish he'd have talked about the wealth gap. That much IS getting worse.
But it doesn't have to.
You know how?
No gods no masters 🌹🏳️⚧️
What does this mean?
AI will drive down prices to effectively zero so wealth will be meaningless.
@@dotailsFood and rent is getting really expensive.
true but the wealth gap will be shut with UBI and PLE
It doesn’t matter how much the technology advances and inventions create abundance, it won’t help a new born unless it is able to access it to thrive on its own for the human species to survive. In addition to human rights, the UN 🇺🇳 needs to ensure along with its sustainability goals, a mechanism to not only include the unborn but empower them alike the adults. 🎉😢😅😊
We are developing incubators, artificial wombs to protect the preborn humans from people who want to kill them, but it will be a decade yet.
@@dotailskeep up the hard work 😮 To incentivize this project, would it benefit to compensate women for carrying the babies to term? By so compensating, we can ensure both the health and welfare of women and babies without having them to go to court to force the men to pay for their support. It would also benefit men by ensuring their mental health is not adversely affected by their failure to support their women during pregnancy, right?
@@balasubr2252 Go for it, I'm sure they would appreciate it. Prolife orgs like students for life raise resources to support mothers. Providing ultrasounds and counseling, clothes, diapers, and formula for example.
@@dotailsIts not enough. A field of economics, perhaps called nano economics might be needed to arbitrage the political and social imbalances between various groups to bring about equality and equilibrium for everyone and everything.
@@dotails Isn’t there an economic view, that there is no free lunch 🥪? Why ask for donations when there is an economic view that society has to pay 💰 for things and should not steal from private people? Not compensating women for their absolute advantage of providing fetuses a home till their birth seems to be a form of slavey isn’t it?
what's this guy yappin about?
The Future Of Humanity in 2045
Maybe in the future they’ll have better toupees
they will just have hair lol
What if we're in a massive spaceship floating in empty space. Hooked onto a simulator to maintain our sanity and prevent us from a mass suicide in the last human mothership 😯 when were born we come from the unknown, maybe when we "die" were return to the unknown.🤷♂️
dafuq?
@@JPJosefPictures idk I hadn't slept for over 24hrs.
Probably
Maybe he is. 🤷♀️
Hopefully schizophrenia would be solved !
everything will be. looking forward to it!
I wonder about, Ray's Hair ? !
it's a toupee
Developed by AI.
It's a hair hat. 😂
Shame on Ray for suggesting progress is unimpeded by existing industries stuck in the innovators dilemma. We’ve been watching EVs be a viable alternative to ICE cars since the 90s. We’ve been watching established auto manufactures kill it off since the 90s. Why would you suggest that the established health insurance industry, pharmaceutical industry, and medical industrial complex would allow technology to advance human health? We’ve already seen that Ray is wrong. The FDA banned most of what 23andME could do. The US banned stem cell research and we have movies about Pharma shutting down targeted peptide research.
While Ray is no idiot, he clearly has ulterior motives to be so publicly wrong; whether those are conscious or not.
Well, well... Aren't we a Ray of sunshine.
While I have different predictions, and while I can't give a date because many things can delay the inevitables, I can confidently share the future is bright, and in so many ways we are already living in the future.
We have EVs already though they make little pollution difference until fusion(new tech) is distributed for powering them.
Health Insurance is a scam, and the health system is outdated, and yet humanity survived covid with it. I am part of a health study now meant to push the assumed limits of health and we are going around the systems and setting up our own supply chains to make health viable today.(Just finished cooking up this weeks meals)
The USA did not ban stemcell research, just unethical research that kills people, thankfully we learned how to revert cells back to a pluripotent state so we are right on track for serious innovation.
If you need more brightside let me know.
@@dotails I suggest you read about 'congressional power to spend' regarding stem cell research before you spout your poorly informed opinions about a future that only exists in your head. The rest of us will continue to fight to make the better future happen. Cheers.
@@lwwells I am aware that the United States is quite mixed up when it comes to early human growth. Alabama for example has ruled that embryos are children under the law and deserve the rights and protections, while California would gladly murder them and experiment on them. But there's hope abundant, only two years ago Roe v Wade was overturned so the states are free to protect kids now.
@@dotails you find the overturning of Roe v Wade “hopeful”? My god, your certifiable my friend. Your idea of “protecting children” involves forcing minors to carry a baby to term after they’ve been raped? Get help.
you say that there is the medical industrial compley, but there isnt. There is a military industrial complex. But ignoring that for a moment, EVs are already an alternative to ICE cars. Ray isn't wrong either. Tell me what he is wrong about. About the printable clothes? haha if thats something you say is important than youre just stupid. the future is decentralized; UBI and PLE after that. If you dont want to be a part of that future, no problem, but you can still decide to be on the light side.
Maybe he is god.
no
All he says will come. I think his time frames are off, though.
❤
2024. Still can’t download new clothes…
you can actually and print them with a 3d printer just like a Kettenhemd, but nobody wants it, you know?
this is old old
Oof being titled as Thomas edisons heir isnt a good thing, dude was bad
why
I'm supremely not impressed by this fella.. how bout show up ahead of time to test the stage out... just watched him on rogan and I it was impossibly bad.
It's the predictions(the points) that are impressive, not the lighting or sleeping. I feel bad for him on rogan, jetlag's the worse.
It's coming and this american guy has no clue.
what's coming?
singularity?
24:49 what he is describing, IS MY IDEA for a company called ‘Next Generation’ which I spoke to a representative (Janet Reid) from CSIRO last year in 2023 about the exact details he is talking about,… even down to the medical science fields and reproduction of meat within a lab. This company is the start of a new Work Sector and will generate BILLIONS to TRILLIONS of dollars only if executed correctly… and without me, that will never happen and all attempts will fail or lead to a Global Financial Crisis.
ok
They don’t wear rats on their head in the future 🐀🐀
Ray kurtzweil is one of the worlds leading Grifters. Selling nutty sci fi ideas to unsuspecting layman .
People said he was nutty about his predictions on AI also. Look at it now
like...?
Clickbait title. Have some respect for your viewers.
That was the original title, this is a reupload for historical preservation since the original uploader deleted it. However he pitched visions from 10-35 years which matches the title so I don't see how this is not an excellent title. What are you most excited about for the future?
@@dotails Then you could have easily put "Re-upload" in the title.
?
Ray looks like old looking 50 years old or very young looking 80 years old, either way there is something weird about him trying to defeat ageing and I don’t think it works the way it was intended.
He's not a good speaker. I found this boring af.
you still watched bro
Please get these creeps off… i don’t want their future.
What about the future do you not want?
you dont have to be a part of it
Mr Kurzweil seems to think he is god
@@barryyoung if there is know god do you believe the sun is there and gravity and what about the rest of the universe did you put those things where they are
@@barryyoung future humans transhumans will be gods
@@edwardspence-fo8vtany life will find itself in a world tuned for its existence, you don't need a god for that, it's not a good argument to try and use online. He also doesn't think he's god or else he wouldn't have made a comment 17 minutes in that he wouldn't have to work as hard if he knew some kids in a college dorm would make a super powerful search engine, so your first comment wasn't even true
@@LiveWithEmory I know where you are coming from. But I believe in the facts the earth and the human race didn't get here by itself I believe what I believe and know one will change my mind. I'm not uneducated I have four advanced degrees in science pathology chemistry genetics and nuro molecular biology for two respected universities Berlin and University of Toronto and I work at Mt Sinai hospital
@@edwardspence-fo8vt if you have all of those credentials why is your spelling and grammar so poor in your reply to the other guy. it's not even typos, you straight up just used incorrect words a far less educated person wouldn't even, don't lie to back up a poor argument man. Even if your credentials were real the video still clearly proves Ray Kurzweil doesn't think he's god like I said.
God damn clickbaits. Old talk.
It's not 2045 yet.
Also this is a reup to protect the historical record since the original was taken down.
@@dotails Fair enough but why don't you state it in the title?
So one fella talks for all seven billion of us ? Either way you look at it you know we are doomed right ?
For the first time in history an abundance base economy is soon to be possible thanks to AI. Life is getting good in the biggest picture. If you have fear about something specific feel free to share and we will help reframe for hope.
bro youre just afraid of change. just start your brain and think stupid
Blahblahblah fact is he's 2nd rate fulla b.s. just a slick used car salesman
Used car salesman with like, 15 PhD's.
He’s actually an accomplished inventor and very intelligent. He has written many good books, one I have read and like very much is “The Singularity is Near”. Have a read of it, you might change your mind about the b.s. accusation.
No 3d printing clothes in the mainstream it is 2024
My predictions are based on needs, which will identify what vacuums need to be filled, but also help prioritize the order that they'll be filled. The demand for printed clothing it's very low, there are other demands that are very high and so that will be the priority of innovation. For example AI is fulfilling an inexpensive labor shortage. Even printed food may become mainstream before clothing. 3D printed clothing does exist there's just no demand for it because it doesn't fulfill a core need better than what we have.
dont need them tho