The minority rule, often associated with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, refers to a principle in which a small, intransigent minority can have a disproportionate impact on the behavior of a larger group, eventually leading the majority to adopt the preferences or practices of that minority. This occurs because the minority is highly committed to a particular preference or practice and is unwilling to compromise, while the majority is more flexible and willing to accommodate the minority's demands to avoid conflict or inconvenience. Key Points of the Minority Rule: Intransigence: The minority is unwavering in its position and refuses to accept alternatives. Flexibility of the Majority: The majority is more flexible and often prefers to avoid confrontation or inconvenience, leading them to adopt the minority's preference. Asymmetric Impact: Even though the minority is smaller, its rigid stance can lead to a situation where the majority conforms to the minority's preferences. Examples: Cultural Practices: In a mixed group, if a small number of individuals strictly follow a particular dietary rule (e.g., kosher or halal), the larger group might choose to accommodate these restrictions, leading to everyone adopting the more restrictive practice. Regulations and Standards: Sometimes, a regulation or standard that applies to a small subset of people (e.g., accessibility requirements) becomes the norm for everyone because it’s easier or more efficient to have a single standard. Implications: The minority rule highlights how committed minorities can exert significant influence over larger groups, often shaping social norms, practices, and even laws. This can be both positive (e.g., ensuring certain ethical standards) and negative (e.g., stifling diversity of thought or practice).
The Paradox of Tolerance This is ascribed to the philosopher Karl Popper in the 1940s If a society's practice of tolerance is inclusive of the intolerant, intolerance will ultimately dominate, eliminating the tolerant and the practice of tolerance with them. In other words, if everyone is tolerant of every idea, then intolerant ideas will emerge. Tolerant people will tolerate this intolerance, & the intolerant people will not tolerate the tolerant people. Eventually, the intolerant people will take over and create a society of intolerance. Therefore, Karl Popper said that to maintain a society of tolerance, the tolerant must be intolerant of intolerance ... hence the paradox
Not everyone eats kosher or halal unless they’re a minority in that specific social setting. Access requirements, for example, disabled people, are reserved for those people alone. The examples you refer to do not demonstrate a stubborn inflexibility but rather the necessities or needs of the people who request them.
Nothing special about it. Only because someone makes a pseudo science out of it doesn’t mean that it isn’t just weak/ stupid mass behaviour. Nothing we can’t evolve out of.
Does it explain Cancer Culture though? So much of our food is cancerous, and for decades a large percentage of people refuse to eat it, yet today they still sell it to all of us. This video is actually BS, and disinfo, covering for a certain group.
Also would have explained why Apple’s “cult-like” following when Jobs was alive would facilitate the changing of the world. Makes little sense to have apple products when they are a different format than all other computers, but you had people that would rather die than give up apple products and so that would have predicted the proliferation and expansion of Apple. You might say the same about personalities like an Elon musk product, or Trump’s influence on other Republicans. Politics is tricky as you have intransigent groups of opposite opposing variety. If Palestine and Israel protesters want they could force the left to split into two pretty easily since each side thinks the other side is guilty of genocide. Or you just have better brainwashing where somehow Kamala convinces protestors on both sides that she will be on their side but just can’t say it before the election, even though being on both sides after the election is impossible.
There's another, related rule: A collection of items will NOT behave as each item will. I.e.: A three (celestial) body problem cannot be resolved just by knowing the behavior of each body. Or, the behavior of a collection of sub-Planck "objects" cannot be inferred from the individual behavior of each "object." (That's quantum mechanics, where some aspects of the universe cannot be expressed in variables, as per John Bell). Or, the behavior of the market cannot be inferred from the individual behavior of each stock. The common reason: Some components of reality cannot be encapsulated in categories, as per professor Naftali Tishby, r.i.p. ("information bottleneck"), and thus not expressible in math, which requires categories. See also my book, The Advanced Sleuth Investor.
Sort of creates a big flaw in the assumptions made by 90% of media interpreted explanations of science which tries to reduce everything to two variables even though having only 2 variables is almost never realistic. You also have 1% of peer reviewers reviewing 99% of studies and there has been a recent effort to overwhelm with junk science to make it easier to influence science so that money can have a greater influence on research making almost all data subject to the minority funding the study. Also shows why statistics is important because in real life you arent getting an easy cause and effect of two variables all the time where you can reduce it to a mathematical equation, but instead you are collecting a sample of conditions whereby 3+ variables of different variety at different times often influence outcome.
00:04 The Minority Rule is a counterintuitive concept that affects the way we understand complex systems 01:25 Jews influence the world through kosher certification. 02:46 Being kosher gives a minority control over majority choices 04:12 Accommodating the minority is the norm 05:35 Monsanto's mistake in introducing GMOs 06:57 Halal meat production and its impact on minority rule 08:14 Minority rule can lead to counter reactions in society. 09:30 Minority rule is a powerful concept in crypto. Crafted by Merlin AI.
Thank you for the video and the book. Sorry for not being able to contribute monetarily to your book currently, but it looks like it deserves the credit and reward…
It's also interesting because the efficiency with which one can accommodate is a huge factor. They sort of covered this in the production cost but let me give an example. Cheese burgers are not kosher but common all over the US. You could have a kosher burger and make it unkosher by adding the cheese. Cheeseburgers abound because it is very efficient to change from kosher to non kosher (not reversible). The same can't be said if drinks.
The innumeratti rule the world. Most people are innumerate, they make the majority of decisions. These decisions are the world. Innumeratti rule the world.
Innumeracy and illiteracy are a disastrous combo. And if immorality defines the powerful class, truth and meaning will be easily co-opted /corrupted in the societal consciousness.
Alvin Gouldner made this same observation in the 1970s. You can read about it in his book... "The future of intellectuals and the rise of the new class." A great read BTW.
“conditional on the majority not being ticked off by it” is a pretty big loop hole. It may explain peculiar things like the prevalence of kosher soft drinks, but the minority rule “running the world “ is a stretch. The larger class of asymmetries in general, where the minority rule is, um, a minority, would be a better contender for explaining much more of the world.
The minority rule is turned out to be too big of a claim regarding how much influences. US is choosing one minority over another in the Palestine and Israel conflict, for example. And the one its choosing is most aligned (and has changed to mold closer with) the majority.
This is simply a case of Individual rights and being in a Western country. For example, in Individualistic societies, the law protects individuals from group tyranny. But in China or Asian countries, the group controls the individual. In Western societies, they're more egalitarian, fairness seeking and inclusive. We should thank Western values that they're so inclusive of minority groups.
This is why the West is slower but more ideal. It tries to accommodate everyone at the expense of efficiency. Also! What the masses want isn't always in the best interest in the long run.
Yes, rich people who are a minority influence govts to make policies that prefer them over rest of the majority. philosophers who are a minority drive cultural thinking for the rest of the normies to catch up and so on. we could apply this minority rule to a lot of scenarios. a family chose to go with a automatic drive because of affordability. If a manual stick driver falls ill and he is alone with the automatic shift driver, who benefits? Businesses if they stop making money will adapt to a different product. it is not a secret.
An interesting point, but methinks that it doesn't fit cleanly within the phenomena that Mr. Talib has illustrated. The Wright Brothers were a minority of 2, and Josef Stalin was a minority of 1. These two are entirely different structures that are not numerical in nature.
"No matter how highly mechanised and fossil fuels self-powered, fossil fuels extraction requires a number of people as if the process executed by hands using buckets and ropes". Today, this number is 8 billion people - working flat out 24/7 - strong. Our Western Civilisation, including all minorities and majorities inside it, has been no more than a fossil fuels-extraction operation since the early mass production of coal 300 years ago. Humans were not ready morally, ethically and intellectually to start the mass extraction of fossil fuels with the advent of the steam engine 300 years ago. "In any system of energy, Control is what consumes energy the most. No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores. No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it. This universal truth applies to all systems. Energy, like time, flows from past to future" (2017).
This makes sense only if the majority accepts to switch to the minority’s choice. However if the majority rejected to switch they will establish their own more dominant minority rule
Whatever minority aligns most with the host's pursuit of power gets accepted, those who don't at all are rejected. This incentivizes minorities to align more with the majority while still holding "some" of their minority traits. In order for a minority to influence the majority, the majority must also be able to influence the minority. You see it across the board and the world. After inclusion comes a deep push for consensus to maintain current power structures. And if minorities can't align enough into a common consensus of power, the power will simply fracture into shadows of itself (Rome splitting between West and East). This is also why Muslims in majority Christian countries like US, Canada, Australia, UK, etc. act, think, and behave VERY different from Muslims in Muslim majority countries that aren't very secular (yet) like Syria, Iraq, Iran, etc. Take it even more macro: US, Canada, Australia, UK, etc. are becoming more influenced by the Global South because of their decline in power relative to the Global South, despite the Western block being more of a minority. And the Global South have FAR less history of ever appeasing minorities outside their majority, like China. It's arguably why their societies remain stable for longer (less appeasing for power early that bites them in the ass later on). It's literally all just about power and how myopic a society is when pursuing it.
That is amazing how could (a few percentage) made simple but strategic changes in the majority laws from the beginning became in control of that majority.
This has always been the case. South African, Indian ( east Indian vompany) etc ruled by the powerful minorities. Even now the West running the world by the financial system, markets and currencies favourable to them, though a minority. The list goes on.
@@things_leftunsaid True, and a child that needs milk and does not cry might not survive. Why does the child exist and why does the wheel exist? I presume purpose.
A nice theory for some industries, but it will not work in the food industries. for instance, Gluten free products lack the nutritional aspects that non gluten free products have. Gluten is a protein that is needed. Plus, it does not taste as good and does not have the same baking and cooking elements as other foods that are not gluten free. If I cook for patients in the hospital that have a controlled diet and who need that protein, it will not have healing benefits for them. The one patient that has the digestive disease will in a sense disease the other patients of their needed protein and restrict their healing process and recovery. Therefore, the minority patient with gluten free needs will still be the minority and will not rule over anyone but themselves. What is needed in this case is to accommodate all the dietary needs of the patients and have seperate foods for them.
Honestly I never understood the point of a stick shift. Its one extra thing to worry about and an unnecessary break from my mental model of moving forward or breaking.
Minority Rule = If it doesnt cost you anything to give into the minority then just do it as it will be a big benefit w/o any downside and thus be an asymmetric upside move
In what way? You think people aren’t going to eat meat if enough vegans want it? There are way more intransigent meat eaters who would never give up steak for instance, so it cancels out. The minority doesn’t get to govern other intransigent people.
DO THIS: Also insert SUBTITLES with WHITE Text in Black Borders/Background, because there's no facial-expression visual feedback of the speaker. If possible insert a Square or circle in corner with the speaker's talking video in it.
I think Nassim is getting a bit confused on a specific definition that captures what a complex system is. Simply put, a complex system is a set of many-to-many relationships among and between its component parts. Today, this is why there has been a slow move in systems engineering from SE to MBSE. That is to say, systems engineering has been expanded to include MODE BASED SE, where an interactive connective model defines the system's relationships.
initially i thought he was referring to power laws. E.g the 1% in weath distribution and power(NPI) poltics. Or 80:20 as in Pareto or Fat tails in finance. Not sure if these are related but I think different.
The example he gave was a little ridiculous. There is no ham or even meat in sodas. What makes something not kosher is forbidden meats like ham or shrimp, also mixing meat products with dairy. Saying soda is Kosher because of minority preference is like saying soda is cholesterol free because people on low cholesterol diets are controlling the soft drink industry. I have found Taleb's books interesting and enjoyable, but he could have come up with a better example. (Kosher specifically for Passover is another story.) McDonalds sells a lot of cheeseburgers even though they are not Kosher. On further consideration, I consider the whole concept BS. People have chosen to be considerate to disabled people because it's right. Beef also needs to be Halal, but you will have trouble finding Halal beef in a grocery store. Not much lamb is sold in the US, the market is significantly expanded by making it Halal.
I agree, after years of believing the concept, it seems more like a naive take on a convenient narrative. I think what's going on between Palestine and Israel is HUGE break from what this concept claims. "People have chosen to be considerate to disabled people because it's right." I'll take it a step further: People chose to appease minorities to grow more power and/or maintain it. The moment minorities counter growing/maintaining power, it's no longer useful and treated as such. Again, Palestine proved the concept wrong. Why won't it go against Israel? Because, as Biden said in 1986, "Were there not an Israel, the United States of America would have to invent an Israel to protect her interests in the region." And he's not the only US leader to say similar, as some would like to say "Israel controls us." It's all a pursuit for larger power, not a minority hijack. Nothing more, nothing less. Of course, this all points to why Western nations/empires are never stable for long: 1. A group conquers outsiders. 2. The group appease minority outsiders while "some" slowly integrate, becoming part of the larger group/power. 3. Later correct those who haven't integrated with deep nationalism, maybe even grassroots fundamentalism. 4. Finally collapse because they couldn't integrate them all. 5. Conquered by the new Western project that followed. Rome, Europeans, America, Israel, etc... all playing out the same way. I do wonder when the last cycle is, though. Ancient societies eventually wised up and learned this common sense the hard way, even to this day in parts of the Global south. The non-Western world mostly refuses appeasement of those conquered or don't even bother with dealing with such affairs because they know where it leads.
The minority rule doesn't hold across time. It's primarily applicable in the time we live in today, though. It wasn't cool to be a minority in the middle ages for example, nor anyone adapted to your preferences then. I'd even venture to say that it's applicable in contexts where the political left is particularly strong.
The minority rule applies in situations where the cost of adapting for the majority is low, and the minority is very persistent. Take pork as example. In USA majority eat pork but minority doesnt however, it involves a deeply rooted cultural preference, which is why the rule does not work here in the way Taleb describes.
Kosher drinks and automatic transmissions don’t hurt the majority like abortion bans and slavery. I’m sure they will get to the edges of minority rule.
Very interesting discussion......the anecdotes were valid....but....it wasn't fully explored. This only works when the majority can't differentiate between normal practice and the practice of the majority........so long as the cost difference is marginal......so, why should it be a surprise when manufacturers take into account the preferences of the minority when the majority couldn't give 2 shits? Briefly touched upon.......is why we don't see Kosher meat as the "standard".......glossed over.
Minority Rule = If it doesnt cost you anything to give into the minority then just do it as it will be a big benefit w/o any downside and thus be an asymmetric upside move / trade (the trades that we all should seek) "Woke / DEI" would be the opposite of the minority rule. its the majority acquiescing to a minority group but its all downside for the majority with no upside. it costs too much for the minority to acquiesce but it gives the majority nothing in return. Example: if you sell a hamburger in an area thats 5% muslim and you switch to halal you get 5% more customers w/o losing any of your original customers. thats a good version of the minority rule. If you sell star wars movies but get rid of all your popular characters to make DEI characters you lose all your original customers and dont gain any new customers because angry feminist will NEVER watch Star Wars and those wanting DEI were just bots on twitter. Thus, one must choose their minorities carefully.
There’s no secret in any of this. Power rules. Might makes right. Where an existing power structure derives its power isn’t always the same though, it’s basic politics and it’s been going on for forever.
The Minority Rule might be simplistic for this example. Kosher can be considered a higher quality standard, different than groups in a population. The United States from its foundation had a Judeo-Christian ethical system. The Constitution can be considered a secularized code derived from Biblical ethics. Even though it abandoned that system the nation's regulations are still informed by it. Setting regulations to the higher quality standard may have resulted from complex considerations. The presence of an Intransigent Minority and Flexible Majority MAY have been definitive or influential. Or it may have been coincidence.
It's a play on it, but not identical. The minority rule stretches the claim further in that it claims minorities lead future developments. I used to believe it, but not anymore. It's more about power than minority vs. majority. Minorities and majority are just mixed and mangled between forever pursuits of power. You can take a minority in a majority country and compare their views with someone who remained in their homeland, they think and act very different. So that minority themselves have already molded and aligned to the majority in similar proportions as the majority towards minority. It is actually minorities who aren't aligned with power who get hit the hardest. Israeli are more aligned with the US's pursuit of power than Palestinians, for example. Who do you think US is helping long-term?
And by ‘bullying’ you mean not being assaulted, discriminated against, intimidated and imprisoned for our sexuality? Human rights are not a case of minority rules it is about a minority demanding to be treated the same as the majority.
What you are saying is that the home less people are a majority in US. Flat earthers too must a majority in US. If it is a threshold that has to be cleared to be a minority then, they are not a minority. Maybe it is people who have influence and are in minority compared to the influential people who are in majority, So as a business decision or to safeguard their interests the majority influencers let the minority influencers have some say. Basically everything boils down to how much influence or power someone has. Which was already known.
inherently a trader all his ideas originate from trading psychology of managing risk by breaking your capital into smaller trades. He wrote 3 books on these. Perhaps he hasn;t seen what happens to minority and their needs when majority decides to be unaccomodative and choses to assert itself.. try selling a non-halal(kosher) food in an islamic country.
Why would coca cola modfy their entire mass production and QA process for 0.03% and even less globally market share? There is no way this could possibly pencil at their scale.
I don’t see how this explains automatic vs manual cars otherwise you’d see the same phenomenon in other countries. In the UK for example, although automatics are easily available, the vast majority are manual. Maybe Americans are just lazy drivers? 😉
I beg to differ. Halal meat or Halal slaughter is not a sacrifice. But it is the prescribed way to slaughter in Islamic culture. This procedure is recommended by the Quran and Hadith. But it has nothing to do with sacrifice... I am pretty sure people who think so are misunderstood or misguided or finding faults in nothing..
Yes. The loss of 0.30% of customers in this case has to be more costly to lose than the costs of changing… however the point Nasim sort of alluded to was that often the added complexity from many parts involved creates additional hidden costs. For instance if a religious group believed that if anything in the process used meat that wasn’t prepared a certain way would be unclean, and contaminated, they aren’t going to build a separate manufacturing plant or disrtribution center or add in ridiculous standards that are too costly to divide out two different processes. So that forces them into all or none. As Nasim also alluded to, often times minority groups are eliminated in history because they are willing to die in protest
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The minority rule, often associated with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, refers to a principle in which a small, intransigent minority can have a disproportionate impact on the behavior of a larger group, eventually leading the majority to adopt the preferences or practices of that minority. This occurs because the minority is highly committed to a particular preference or practice and is unwilling to compromise, while the majority is more flexible and willing to accommodate the minority's demands to avoid conflict or inconvenience.
Key Points of the Minority Rule:
Intransigence: The minority is unwavering in its position and refuses to accept alternatives.
Flexibility of the Majority: The majority is more flexible and often prefers to avoid confrontation or inconvenience, leading them to adopt the minority's preference.
Asymmetric Impact: Even though the minority is smaller, its rigid stance can lead to a situation where the majority conforms to the minority's preferences.
Examples:
Cultural Practices: In a mixed group, if a small number of individuals strictly follow a particular dietary rule (e.g., kosher or halal), the larger group might choose to accommodate these restrictions, leading to everyone adopting the more restrictive practice.
Regulations and Standards: Sometimes, a regulation or standard that applies to a small subset of people (e.g., accessibility requirements) becomes the norm for everyone because it’s easier or more efficient to have a single standard.
Implications:
The minority rule highlights how committed minorities can exert significant influence over larger groups, often shaping social norms, practices, and even laws. This can be both positive (e.g., ensuring certain ethical standards) and negative (e.g., stifling diversity of thought or practice).
Another way to say it would just be that if it is very convenient for the majority to cater to the minority, they often will end up doing it.
Indeed, Jewish history is filled with such examples.
The Paradox of Tolerance
This is ascribed to the philosopher Karl
Popper in the 1940s
If a society's practice of tolerance is inclusive
of the intolerant, intolerance will ultimately dominate, eliminating the tolerant and the practice of tolerance with them.
In other words, if everyone is tolerant of every idea, then intolerant ideas will emerge.
Tolerant people will tolerate this intolerance, & the intolerant people will not tolerate the tolerant people.
Eventually, the intolerant people will take over and create a society of intolerance.
Therefore, Karl Popper said that to maintain a society of tolerance, the tolerant must be intolerant of intolerance ... hence the paradox
@am1of1 The problem with the paradox of tolerance is it depends who has the power. It is easy to be intolerant of intolerance after you've won a war.
Not everyone eats kosher or halal unless they’re a minority in that specific social setting. Access requirements, for example, disabled people, are reserved for those people alone. The examples you refer to do not demonstrate a stubborn inflexibility but rather the necessities or needs of the people who request them.
Now that I think about it, this explains cancel culture. It’s about playing to the small percentage of people who are extremely offended by something.
nice point
Nothing special about it. Only because someone makes a pseudo science out of it doesn’t mean that it isn’t just weak/ stupid mass behaviour. Nothing we can’t evolve out of.
Absolutely!
Does it explain Cancer Culture though? So much of our food is cancerous, and for decades a large percentage of people refuse to eat it, yet today they still sell it to all of us. This video is actually BS, and disinfo, covering for a certain group.
@@yashnigam6 Cancel culture is actually about playing to a growing majority who are foolish enough to adopt the ill founded opinions of a minority.
Love that you are back brother!!!
💯
Good to have you back. 2 of my favourite contemporary thinkers
I love it when the algorithm gets it right!
thanks!
Very helpful. This explains leverage in social engineering of politics, business, ethics, religion etc.
Also would have explained why Apple’s “cult-like” following when Jobs was alive would facilitate the changing of the world. Makes little sense to have apple products when they are a different format than all other computers, but you had people that would rather die than give up apple products and so that would have predicted the proliferation and expansion of Apple.
You might say the same about personalities like an Elon musk product, or Trump’s influence on other Republicans.
Politics is tricky as you have intransigent groups of opposite opposing variety. If Palestine and Israel protesters want they could force the left to split into two pretty easily since each side thinks the other side is guilty of genocide. Or you just have better brainwashing where somehow Kamala convinces protestors on both sides that she will be on their side but just can’t say it before the election, even though being on both sides after the election is impossible.
There's another, related rule: A collection of items will NOT behave as each item will. I.e.: A three (celestial) body problem cannot be resolved just by knowing the behavior of each body. Or, the behavior of a collection of sub-Planck "objects" cannot be inferred from the individual behavior of each "object." (That's quantum mechanics, where some aspects of the universe cannot be expressed in variables, as per John Bell). Or, the behavior of the market cannot be inferred from the individual behavior of each stock. The common reason: Some components of reality cannot be encapsulated in categories, as per professor Naftali Tishby, r.i.p. ("information bottleneck"), and thus not expressible in math, which requires categories. See also my book, The Advanced Sleuth Investor.
Sort of creates a big flaw in the assumptions made by 90% of media interpreted explanations of science which tries to reduce everything to two variables even though having only 2 variables is almost never realistic.
You also have 1% of peer reviewers reviewing 99% of studies and there has been a recent effort to overwhelm with junk science to make it easier to influence science so that money can have a greater influence on research making almost all data subject to the minority funding the study.
Also shows why statistics is important because in real life you arent getting an easy cause and effect of two variables all the time where you can reduce it to a mathematical equation, but instead you are collecting a sample of conditions whereby 3+ variables of different variety at different times often influence outcome.
LOve the content brother, keep this common place youtube channel going!
Thank you !!
Finally the wait is over,you don't know how many times I checked the channi.
Hahaha appreciate that !
Very good presentation on top of a great discussion in the background
Thanks! :)
Welcome back , after a long time you published a video
Glad to have you back
Can’t tell how much I missed your contents.
Appreciate that :)
Welcome back brother. Thanks❤️
00:04 The Minority Rule is a counterintuitive concept that affects the way we understand complex systems
01:25 Jews influence the world through kosher certification.
02:46 Being kosher gives a minority control over majority choices
04:12 Accommodating the minority is the norm
05:35 Monsanto's mistake in introducing GMOs
06:57 Halal meat production and its impact on minority rule
08:14 Minority rule can lead to counter reactions in society.
09:30 Minority rule is a powerful concept in crypto.
Crafted by Merlin AI.
I wish every RUclips channel did this for now on.
Thank you for the video and the book. Sorry for not being able to contribute monetarily to your book currently, but it looks like it deserves the credit and reward…
thank you very much!
On the positive side, this is the power of faithfulness/commitment.
Thanks for this - I now understand why the minority interests in Woke, Pride and DEI play such a dominant role in US politics.
It's also interesting because the efficiency with which one can accommodate is a huge factor. They sort of covered this in the production cost but let me give an example. Cheese burgers are not kosher but common all over the US. You could have a kosher burger and make it unkosher by adding the cheese. Cheeseburgers abound because it is very efficient to change from kosher to non kosher (not reversible). The same can't be said if drinks.
Damn naseem is bad at explaining anything but his core ideas are gold
That is my experience also.
The word impenetrable seems like a fitting description. I seek an interpreter.
This is a perfect example for explaining the minority rule. Thank you.
The innumeratti rule the world.
Most people are innumerate, they make the majority of decisions. These decisions are the world.
Innumeratti rule the world.
Nice wordplay!
Innumeracy and illiteracy are a disastrous combo.
And if immorality defines the powerful class, truth and meaning will be easily co-opted /corrupted in the societal consciousness.
@@michaelfoxbrass Listen to the cognitive scientists: there is nothing objective in the brain.
Alvin Gouldner made this same observation in the 1970s.
You can read about it in his book... "The future of intellectuals and the rise of the new class."
A great read BTW.
Thanks for sharing. Extremely informative.
Thanks !!
“conditional on the majority not being ticked off by it” is a pretty big loop hole. It may explain peculiar things like the prevalence of kosher soft drinks, but the minority rule “running the world “ is a stretch. The larger class of asymmetries in general, where the minority rule is, um, a minority, would be a better contender for explaining much more of the world.
The minority rule is turned out to be too big of a claim regarding how much influences. US is choosing one minority over another in the Palestine and Israel conflict, for example. And the one its choosing is most aligned (and has changed to mold closer with) the majority.
Yeah, I don't know why it's worded that way. It's certainly a thing that seems to be prevalent in the world. Doesn't mean it's ruling the world.
Great stuff!
This is simply a case of Individual rights and being in a Western country. For example, in Individualistic societies, the law protects individuals from group tyranny. But in China or Asian countries, the group controls the individual. In Western societies, they're more egalitarian, fairness seeking and inclusive. We should thank Western values that they're so inclusive of minority groups.
This is why the West is slower but more ideal. It tries to accommodate everyone at the expense of efficiency. Also! What the masses want isn't always in the best interest in the long run.
Lmaoo, the minorities are treated like third rate Citizens and they're progress is merely determined by how submissive and relenting they are.
Should we also be grateful that their entire civilization is based in genocide , slavery, colonialism and oppression.
on the contrary, the egalitarian-ism and we know better attitude will lead to their own downfall (of not knowing the dangers of the east)
@@hiteshnankani644 What are the dangers of the East?
Yes, rich people who are a minority influence govts to make policies that prefer them over rest of the majority. philosophers who are a minority drive cultural thinking for the rest of the normies to catch up and so on. we could apply this minority rule to a lot of scenarios. a family chose to go with a automatic drive because of affordability. If a manual stick driver falls ill and he is alone with the automatic shift driver, who benefits? Businesses if they stop making money will adapt to a different product. it is not a secret.
An interesting point, but methinks that it doesn't fit cleanly within the phenomena that Mr. Talib has illustrated. The Wright Brothers were a minority of 2, and Josef Stalin was a minority of 1. These two are entirely different structures that are not numerical in nature.
"No matter how highly mechanised and fossil fuels self-powered, fossil fuels extraction requires a number of people as if the process executed by hands using buckets and ropes".
Today, this number is 8 billion people - working flat out 24/7 - strong.
Our Western Civilisation, including all minorities and majorities inside it, has been no more than a fossil fuels-extraction operation since the early mass production of coal 300 years ago.
Humans were not ready morally, ethically and intellectually to start the mass extraction of fossil fuels with the advent of the steam engine 300 years ago.
"In any system of energy, Control is what consumes energy the most.
No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores.
No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it.
This universal truth applies to all systems.
Energy, like time, flows from past to future" (2017).
This makes sense only if the majority accepts to switch to the minority’s choice. However if the majority rejected to switch they will establish their own more dominant minority rule
Whatever minority aligns most with the host's pursuit of power gets accepted, those who don't at all are rejected. This incentivizes minorities to align more with the majority while still holding "some" of their minority traits. In order for a minority to influence the majority, the majority must also be able to influence the minority.
You see it across the board and the world. After inclusion comes a deep push for consensus to maintain current power structures. And if minorities can't align enough into a common consensus of power, the power will simply fracture into shadows of itself (Rome splitting between West and East).
This is also why Muslims in majority Christian countries like US, Canada, Australia, UK, etc. act, think, and behave VERY different from Muslims in Muslim majority countries that aren't very secular (yet) like Syria, Iraq, Iran, etc.
Take it even more macro: US, Canada, Australia, UK, etc. are becoming more influenced by the Global South because of their decline in power relative to the Global South, despite the Western block being more of a minority. And the Global South have FAR less history of ever appeasing minorities outside their majority, like China. It's arguably why their societies remain stable for longer (less appeasing for power early that bites them in the ass later on).
It's literally all just about power and how myopic a society is when pursuing it.
That is amazing how could (a few percentage) made simple but strategic changes in the majority laws from the beginning became in control of that majority.
Where you been? Love your content brother
Thanks !
This has always been the case. South African, Indian ( east Indian vompany) etc ruled by the powerful minorities. Even now the West running the world by the financial system, markets and currencies favourable to them, though a minority. The list goes on.
Amazing stuff.
So basically the Minority Rules restates: "The squeaky wheel get's the grease"
Or the crying child gets the milk
Well yes. Another metaphors might be "systems work better when maintained."
@@things_leftunsaid True, and a child that needs milk and does not cry might not survive.
Why does the child exist and why does the wheel exist? I presume purpose.
Very insightful
Good content
I was so sure the answer was going to be bragging about your deadlifts and calling people idiots on Twitter!
A nice theory for some industries, but it will not work in the food industries. for instance, Gluten free products lack the nutritional aspects that non gluten free products have. Gluten is a protein that is needed. Plus, it does not taste as good and does not have the same baking and cooking elements as other foods that are not gluten free. If I cook for patients in the hospital that have a controlled diet and who need that protein, it will not have healing benefits for them. The one patient that has the digestive disease will in a sense disease the other patients of their needed protein and restrict their healing process and recovery. Therefore, the minority patient with gluten free needs will still be the minority and will not rule over anyone but themselves. What is needed in this case is to accommodate all the dietary needs of the patients and have seperate foods for them.
Increible example of how islamic complaints get preferences even when they are a small minority in Europe
Honestly I never understood the point of a stick shift. Its one extra thing to worry about and an unnecessary break from my mental model of moving forward or breaking.
Minority Rule = If it doesnt cost you anything to give into the minority then just do it as it will be a big benefit w/o any downside and thus be an asymmetric upside move
Grande Julio!
Gracias Juan !!
Common Minimum Program. In India if schools serve food to kids, highly likely it’s going to be vegetarian food.
can you please explain why the minority rule doesnt work for veganism/vegetarianism?
In what way? You think people aren’t going to eat meat if enough vegans want it? There are way more intransigent meat eaters who would never give up steak for instance, so it cancels out. The minority doesn’t get to govern other intransigent people.
I think it does work. Most places have a vegetarian or vegan option on their menu. I think this is the minority rule in action.
the reason why in India we have 'pure' vegetarian in every street corner
And only halal meat in every other?
DO THIS: Also insert SUBTITLES with WHITE Text in Black Borders/Background, because there's no facial-expression visual feedback of the speaker.
If possible insert a Square or circle in corner with the speaker's talking video in it.
Finders keepers. It's no secret.
question for you Taleb , is the future of statisics rsearch will be towards more and more non-parametrics ? if this is the case then why
I think Nassim is getting a bit confused on a specific definition that captures what a complex system is. Simply put, a complex system is a set of many-to-many relationships among and between its component parts. Today, this is why there has been a slow move in systems engineering from SE to MBSE. That is to say, systems engineering has been expanded to include MODE BASED SE, where an interactive connective model defines the system's relationships.
initially i thought he was referring to power laws. E.g the 1% in weath distribution and power(NPI) poltics. Or 80:20 as in Pareto or Fat tails in finance. Not sure if these are related but I think different.
The example he gave was a little ridiculous. There is no ham or even meat in sodas. What makes something not kosher is forbidden meats like ham or shrimp, also mixing meat products with dairy. Saying soda is Kosher because of minority preference is like saying soda is cholesterol free because people on low cholesterol diets are controlling the soft drink industry. I have found Taleb's books interesting and enjoyable, but he could have come up with a better example. (Kosher specifically for Passover is another story.) McDonalds sells a lot of cheeseburgers even though they are not Kosher. On further consideration, I consider the whole concept BS. People have chosen to be considerate to disabled people because it's right. Beef also needs to be Halal, but you will have trouble finding Halal beef in a grocery store. Not much lamb is sold in the US, the market is significantly expanded by making it Halal.
Well and there is Kosher Coca Cola for Passover.
They sell it in yellow caps and it uses cane sugar like Mexican coke
That's fair but for food to be kosher it has to be blessed by a rabbi afaik, so this does put a positive constraint on the manufacture.
I agree, after years of believing the concept, it seems more like a naive take on a convenient narrative. I think what's going on between Palestine and Israel is HUGE break from what this concept claims.
"People have chosen to be considerate to disabled people because it's right." I'll take it a step further: People chose to appease minorities to grow more power and/or maintain it. The moment minorities counter growing/maintaining power, it's no longer useful and treated as such.
Again, Palestine proved the concept wrong. Why won't it go against Israel? Because, as Biden said in 1986, "Were there not an Israel, the United States of America would have to invent an Israel to protect her interests in the region." And he's not the only US leader to say similar, as some would like to say "Israel controls us." It's all a pursuit for larger power, not a minority hijack. Nothing more, nothing less.
Of course, this all points to why Western nations/empires are never stable for long:
1. A group conquers outsiders.
2. The group appease minority outsiders while "some" slowly integrate, becoming part of the larger group/power.
3. Later correct those who haven't integrated with deep nationalism, maybe even grassroots fundamentalism.
4. Finally collapse because they couldn't integrate them all.
5. Conquered by the new Western project that followed.
Rome, Europeans, America, Israel, etc... all playing out the same way. I do wonder when the last cycle is, though. Ancient societies eventually wised up and learned this common sense the hard way, even to this day in parts of the Global south. The non-Western world mostly refuses appeasement of those conquered or don't even bother with dealing with such affairs because they know where it leads.
It has validity but yes i think coke realised kosher was easy so they slapped the label on. That’s about it. Zero effort.
Mixing meat products with dairy is not against Torah. Stop adding your Talmudic $#!@ to the Torah.
They behave exactly like organized crime on a huge scale
The more dogmatic, the more influence. That is tragic.
5:58 woah there buddy what were you gonna say?
So the one thing that rules the world is ENTITLEMENT and SOCIAL ISOLATION ANXIETY.
The minority rule doesn't hold across time. It's primarily applicable in the time we live in today, though.
It wasn't cool to be a minority in the middle ages for example, nor anyone adapted to your preferences then.
I'd even venture to say that it's applicable in contexts where the political left is particularly strong.
Ignoring the lack of political sophistication, it is an interesting point.
Minority rule probably only applies to advanced countries, majority rules in less advanced countries.
Garbage in, garbage out.
The minority rule applies in situations where the cost of adapting for the majority is low, and the minority is very persistent.
Take pork as example. In USA majority eat pork but minority doesnt however, it involves a deeply rooted cultural preference, which is why the rule does not work here in the way Taleb describes.
The actual rule is universal design.
@2:17
Well %1 who has the money set the rules
anyone else freaked out about the amount of laughs and support for the anti-semetic jokes?
Halal meat isnt common in Ireland. Its not in the schools here.
Kosher drinks and automatic transmissions don’t hurt the majority like abortion bans and slavery. I’m sure they will get to the edges of minority rule.
Very interesting discussion......the anecdotes were valid....but....it wasn't fully explored.
This only works when the majority can't differentiate between normal practice and the practice of the majority........so long as the cost difference is marginal......so, why should it be a surprise when manufacturers take into account the preferences of the minority when the majority couldn't give 2 shits?
Briefly touched upon.......is why we don't see Kosher meat as the "standard".......glossed over.
Minority Rule = If it doesnt cost you anything to give into the minority then just do it as it will be a big benefit w/o any downside and thus be an asymmetric upside move / trade (the trades that we all should seek)
"Woke / DEI" would be the opposite of the minority rule. its the majority acquiescing to a minority group but its all downside for the majority with no upside. it costs too much for the minority to acquiesce but it gives the majority nothing in return.
Example: if you sell a hamburger in an area thats 5% muslim and you switch to halal you get 5% more customers w/o losing any of your original customers. thats a good version of the minority rule.
If you sell star wars movies but get rid of all your popular characters to make DEI characters you lose all your original customers and dont gain any new customers because angry feminist will NEVER watch Star Wars and those wanting DEI were just bots on twitter.
Thus, one must choose their minorities carefully.
There’s no secret in any of this. Power rules. Might makes right. Where an existing power structure derives its power isn’t always the same though, it’s basic politics and it’s been going on for forever.
By that reasoning, why not all beef is halal slaughtered?
Good observation.
I like driving stick and eating peanuts.
Did he He just attempt to model “Group mind vs Individual Mind” !?
Does this also apply the dumbest of our society? Are we all living in a world designed for the most stupid?
Isn’t this already extremely well known?
Those who believe the "cry baby" contingent rules the world are in for a rude awakening.
Tragic disaster that should have been prevented. Waste of human life.
02:17
Ur being filmed
Cuz the Juice runs the world
Hahehahe
The Minority Rule might be simplistic for this example. Kosher can be considered a higher quality standard, different than groups in a population. The United States from its foundation had a Judeo-Christian ethical system. The Constitution can be considered a secularized code derived from Biblical ethics. Even though it abandoned that system the nation's regulations are still informed by it. Setting regulations to the higher quality standard may have resulted from complex considerations. The presence of an Intransigent Minority and Flexible Majority MAY have been definitive or influential. Or it may have been coincidence.
Classic confirmation bias.
Nice. But the way of presentation needs a lot of improvement.
thanks! What should I improve ?
The basis for all woke idiocy where everybody is explicitly naming his gender pronouns.
I believe you are describing the Paradox of Intolerance
It's a play on it, but not identical. The minority rule stretches the claim further in that it claims minorities lead future developments. I used to believe it, but not anymore. It's more about power than minority vs. majority. Minorities and majority are just mixed and mangled between forever pursuits of power.
You can take a minority in a majority country and compare their views with someone who remained in their homeland, they think and act very different. So that minority themselves have already molded and aligned to the majority in similar proportions as the majority towards minority.
It is actually minorities who aren't aligned with power who get hit the hardest. Israeli are more aligned with the US's pursuit of power than Palestinians, for example. Who do you think US is helping long-term?
LGBTQIA bullying everyone into their narrative.
And by ‘bullying’ you mean not being assaulted, discriminated against, intimidated and imprisoned for our sexuality? Human rights are not a case of minority rules it is about a minority demanding to be treated the same as the majority.
Isn't it the 80-20 rule in other words?
Can something be Kosher and Halal?
Is this kosher?
What you are saying is that the home less people are a majority in US. Flat earthers too must a majority in US. If it is a threshold that has to be cleared to be a minority then, they are not a minority. Maybe it is people who have influence and are in minority compared to the influential people who are in majority, So as a business decision or to safeguard their interests the majority influencers let the minority influencers have some say. Basically everything boils down to how much influence or power someone has. Which was already known.
inherently a trader all his ideas originate from trading psychology of managing risk by breaking your capital into smaller trades. He wrote 3 books on these. Perhaps he hasn;t seen what happens to minority and their needs when majority decides to be unaccomodative and choses to assert itself.. try selling a non-halal(kosher) food in an islamic country.
this only works when the minority has majority power which rarely happens.
Why would coca cola modfy their entire mass production and QA process for 0.03% and even less globally market share? There is no way this could possibly pencil at their scale.
It probably came down to the potential of a boycott from the Jewish market and all Jewish run businesses
I don’t see how this explains automatic vs manual cars otherwise you’d see the same phenomenon in other countries. In the UK for example, although automatics are easily available, the vast majority are manual.
Maybe Americans are just lazy drivers? 😉
2:18 - the real “secret” we all know explain minority rule
So this video should be titled, how to get bitcoin adopted tech bro.
UK prefers Stick shift!
Spain too!
The term is manual. We English prefer to drive than be driven.
Naval joking not joking :D
I beg to differ. Halal meat or Halal slaughter is not a sacrifice. But it is the prescribed way to slaughter in Islamic culture. This procedure is recommended by the Quran and Hadith. But it has nothing to do with sacrifice...
I am pretty sure people who think so are misunderstood or misguided or finding faults in nothing..
Its called zionism
Don't you think you are in a linguistic overkill?
If Kosher can be attained cheaply what’s the loss? If expensive outcome might be different
Yes. The loss of 0.30% of customers in this case has to be more costly to lose than the costs of changing… however the point Nasim sort of alluded to was that often the added complexity from many parts involved creates additional hidden costs. For instance if a religious group believed that if anything in the process used meat that wasn’t prepared a certain way would be unclean, and contaminated, they aren’t going to build a separate manufacturing plant or disrtribution center or add in ridiculous standards that are too costly to divide out two different processes. So that forces them into all or none.
As Nasim also alluded to, often times minority groups are eliminated in history because they are willing to die in protest