Forecast Discussion - March 30, 2024 - Significant Severe Weather Threat to Begin April
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- Опубликовано: 11 июн 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
A multi-day severe weather event is set to usher in April this week as a large trough interacts with a broad warm sector. The SPC has outlined large severe weather risk areas for Monday, April 1 and Tuesday, April 2, including an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from southern Oklahoma into eastern Missouri on Monday. Initial supercells are expected to pose a threat for very large hail and damaging winds before morphing into an expansive squall line that should march across the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Midwest into Tuesday morning with a damaging wind and tornado risk. The severe threat will continue Tuesday from the Midwest into the Southeast and Appalachians, but Monday's outcome will have a major impact on what happens Tuesday.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction
3:12 Current state of the atmosphere
6:01 Model analysis: Monday's risk
25:46 Model analysis: Tuesday's risk
31:15 Wrap-up 
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I've been hitting refresh for hours! I am always impatiently waiting your updates! Great content as always!
Same lol
real this guys goated
Thank you!
Same!! Watching from SE Norman
Oh glad monday doesnt look like a big tornado event especially since i am in the risk thank you Trey!
OHH! Was not expecting it right now! Great video and quite the multi day severe set up!
Thank you!
@@ConvectiveChronicles You always make amazing videos, keep it up.
Thank you!@@PezexWX
Ahh there it is! Been dying to hear your thoughts. Still trying to decide if I want to chase the southern part of the enhanced. Appreciate it man!
I think the southern mode could foster a nice hail chase with the initial discrete supercells!
Thank you for the update!
With all these systems targeting the OH valley and Southern plains, it looks like your seasonal forecast is right on track so far. It's genuinely mind-blowing (and so helpful) that we have the scientific knowledge to make very accurate and decently precise predictions that far out. Stay weather ready everyone!
Definitely happy with the forecast so far; we'll see if it holds into April/May!
Been waiting for this upload all day, thanks for the quality forecast info as always.
Thank you!
Man I wish I lived in the states!
Not only because of live stormchasing but also because I could observe it myself without that time difference. (it's 2AM help me :p)
Also thanks for the summary Trey.
A little eerie considering that this Monday is exactly a year + a day after last year's huge outbreak.
Right? I felt the same way with the April 28 2014 outbreak in the deep south which was 3 years + 1 day after the super outbreak of April 27 2011! I can't imagine how eerie and probably PTSD triggering having a big severe threat at the same time as last one
@@peachxtaehyunghonestly a year is more impressive… 3 years is just a coincidence
@@howclosearewe5550 oh yeah I know I was just saying the crazy fact that these things happened on almost the exact same day as another major outbreak and in the same area
Theres been a lot of big severe weather events on the last couple of days in march - the first week of april
@@henmeister613 yeah but it's the fact of it being the same area
Great vid and...... Congrats on 15k!!!!
Thank you so much!
I just discovered your channel and I subscribed and gave a thumbs up 👍🏼😊
Thank you so much!
Chasing this one too. Loving the storms in my area hopefully my luck turns around
looks like storm season is starting!! great video as always dude, cant wait to watch that storm on monday
Thank you! Storm season is definitely revving up!
love the vids dude! ur awesome!
Thank you!!
Great video Trey 😁 and I'm watching Monday extra close I'm in the enhanced risk so we'll see what happens
Thank you!
very interesting
Alright and checking this out on my overnight shift and SPC just pushing out the Monday and Tuesday out looks and a this is looking to be a significant all hazards event. Tornado threat in MO/IL looking quite impressive now with the 10% hatched but very widespread tornado threat too with the 5% in a very wide net. Almost all storms may have some tornado potential before the LLJ really cranks out on MO/IL. That region there is bad chase territory after dark I believe. Oh and the MCS that will form too is looking good. So much hail too on this event.
This almost has a weird feel overall to the March 14th event where you don't think a positive trough like this would do much but this shortwave low is looking pretty damn robust and right around where the better forcing is on the low and environment is likely gonna be cooking up that tornado threat and could see some significant tornadoes. Always gotta look at the exit/entrance regions on a low like this. Some of the model hodographs are pretty damn good too with good backing winds. Warm front would be my play on this event starting in SE KS/SW MO. I think we will see a MDT issued in the next 48 hours and having it be focused around where the hatched tornado risk is as there's a good wind/hail threat too in the 30% and hatched for the hail.
I know you said you weren't likely gonna chase this event but not sure if there's some re-considerations you may do or are considering or more so thinking, "eh....I'll still just wait till we get a better event.....there's still lot of the season left"?
Oh and Tuesday still looking very interesting and I would not be surprised to see some decent tornadoes on this too. While it may be mostly wind the Ohio River Valley is looking pretty robust now on the models for some interesting stuff to take off. I would not sleep on the warm front to cook some pretty good stuff with the strong low for support. IL, IN, OH been so hefty on tornadoes in 2024 and looks to be the same again.
I might go out locally for some hail, but not interested in driving to MO for what should be an MCS-based tornado risk.
I'll be watching the low progression here in Ohio for Tuesday. If that warm front sustains and strengthens as the low moves eastward we might see few tornadoes here in Central Ohio. Might be similar to the tornadoes of last week here in Ohio that completely shocked all the forecasters. We'll see.
I agree, definitely needs to be monitored
As soon as I saw 30% added I was like "Is Trey still thinking or recording the video right now"😂
Thank you for providing this info for us. I've been worried about severe storms occurring for some time. Based on what we know so far, would you say the tornado threat could be higher on Monday or Tuesday?
To me, it looks like fairly low tornado threats on each day, but we could see smaller scale corridors of more favorable ingredients for tornadic activity develop.
I hope you take David Payne's job someday... That is if you want it... You are much more calm and not annoying to listen to
Honestly if you do kinda dislike David Payne (I do too don't worry lol) I'd recommend watching channel 5 with Damon Lane (assuming you live in Oklahoma and have the access of course). He's really good at keeping calm and keeping everyone well informed. Not to mention Jonathan Conders who is also really good. He makes sure Damon doesn't get too crazy and excited like David Payne does.
@@mr.lucky5835 Yes, Living in Enid now and moving to Edmond in May... I love News 9's storm chasers and unmatched weather technology... David Payne is just too annoying LoL
@@GaryWygal Yea I get that, but Jonathan Conders is really good about his predictions and keeping everything up to date. I've also just been watching 5 for awhile now so I might just be a little biased lol
@@mr.lucky5835 I'll give channel 5 a chance 👍 looks like we may have some action Monday afternoon and evening, stay safe and God bless
Haha thank you! I, too, enjoy watching KOCO 5.
One question, what is the difference between positive and negatively tilted troughs?
Check out my video on the 500 mb map; I go over the difference in that video: ruclips.net/video/h_Uue5UBCOU/видео.html
First and your awesome Trey
It's wild that this severe weather event is happening on the anniversary of the tornado outbreak in New Jersey last year
I am a little concerned seeing this threat be marked as enhanced on the day I have a tennis tournament in OKC, but I'm definitely a bit excited to see where this leads. Crossing my fingers I don't have to run inside suddenly due to crazy wind and hail 😅
Not sure I've been in a day 4 zone before, so I'm intrigued. I feel safe assuming that it'll just be some strong thunderstorms and not much else, but who knows.
I'm in central Missouri
Love my kinky severe weather! Lol
Any ELI5 for Columbus, OH for 4/1 and 4/2? Live just north of Columbus and had a tornado come within two miles of my home two weeks ago…hoping to avoid that again
Bigger threat should be 4/2, but we’ll have to wait and see how Monday plays out. I’d keep an eye out and prepare for all hazards
Wind was whipping in AZ
What app do you use for writing on the screen? I feel like it would make forecasting a bit easier.
I use a Wacom Intuos Tablet and a Mac app called Presentify.
Thank you so much! Great video, as always!@@ConvectiveChronicles
Thank you! @@davidousmanov5779
The Tuesday event doesn't seem like it's going to be as hazardous for north Alabama, at least from what I've gotten from the models. Showing mrgnl severe for us after noon on Tuesday, which is a good thing. Don't want any bad weather making life even more complicated than it already is lol. But I just got a bad feeling that the rest of April and May will be very very active. You planning on chasing monday?
Yeah, I'm not seeing much with southern extent in the Tuesday risk. Maybe some low-end wind risk but that's about it for now.
If there's a legitimate tornado threat from discrete supercells, then I'll be out chasing Monday, but I'm not seeing much of that yet.
Ooouuu kinky height contures 😉 sorry couldn't help myself. Another great video. You r probably inspiring a whole generation of people to study meteorology.
Thank you so much!
Thanks Trey! Any thoughts on Virginia and NC for Tuesday?
I think any threat that far east would be toward the nighttime hours as the squall line moves east. Mostly a damaging wind risk
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thanks!
What are ur thoughts on Tulsa monday? Sure we got a enhanced risk. But based on model data i think capping will stop any severe storms. Doesnt make sense to me. I think all severe storms will form east of Tulsa
I think there’s a threat for large hail and damaging winds for the Tulsa area Monday.
I need details man! Please tell my TN isnt gonna get another tornado outbreak like in December of last year? :C My hometown of Hrendersonville is rebuilding nicely too. Just please tell me the tornado risk is still small?
All hazards are on the table but greatest tornado threat appears to be north of there at this time.
explain? @@ConvectiveChronicles
@@somedudewhodraws9377All of the hazards (tornado, wind, hail) are possible with the storm. The greatest tornado risk is in the north.
Explanation is in the video!@@somedudewhodraws9377
Finally, something interesting to watch 😂
Thanks Trey, has the spc overdone their enhanced risk for OK? Appears to be a lack of surface sheer, CAPE & possible capping? In itself a danger when the environment is amped for extreme weather
For now, I think the very large hail and significant damaging wind threat is enough to warrant an enhanced.
What’s the out look on the Great Lakes??? Tornado chances? Thank you
That's a pretty large region; any location in particular?
@@ConvectiveChronicles Cleveland Ohio
Nam 18z 3km showing some discrete cells. Still all to play for
I think discrete storms are a good bet initially, but the wind profile won’t be very favorable for tornadoes. Thus, the large hail threat will be greatest with those storms.
@@ConvectiveChronicles I think we will get some discrete storms in missouri. There's the risk isn't massive for tornadoes but definitely some risk. And yes after maybe a few hours or so it'll converge to MCs.
WE ARE HATCHED!!
I can see it for hail but a bit curious as to why the tornado probs were hatched. With the front sagging and eventually surging, which may undercut storms, plus the tendency for quick upscale growth into a messier storm mode, I don't really see a sig tor risk personally.
@@ConvectiveChroniclesI agree… they have been quick to give hatched 10% this year
@ConvectiveChronicles interesting..... well you nailed the last event as being a dud. For people's saftey, hopefully this one is too
They took down the hatched area@@ConvectiveChronicles
@Convective Chronicles will you be chasing this event?
We'll see...if there's a legit tornado threat with discrete supercells, yes. But I'm not seeing much of that at this point.
@@ConvectiveChroniclesanything can happen tho, it’s just abt April as someone in oklahoma who almost learned the hard way lmao
Do you think there will be a high risk monday?
No way that’s happening
No
Tomorrow I'm going to get storms into Monday
Is there a chance of moderate risk ??
It is on the table, but it would likely be for hail or wind
5% for tornadoes?
They decided to go 10-hatch for MO surrounded by a broad 2 and 5%.@@ChrisWhite200
For some reason i can never get to that page on the COD page idk why though lol sorry if i am just being dumb or blind lol
Which page are you referring to?
@@ConvectiveChronicles oh sorry I meant to add the time stamp. I meant the one at 10:50 the one that shows the 500mb trough and you can see if it's positive or negative and how fast the winds are if that makes sense
That's under the Weather Models tab. You can click on that and select which model you want. The menu on the left will then allow you to select products at different heights.@@peachxtaehyung
Central Oklahoma your Target area trey
Might chase locally there but not interested too much in driving to MO for an MCS tornado risk
Welp, we gotta enjoy whatever the atmosphere produces lol. Hopefully some embedded nadoes occur.
We’ll probably see a few tornadoes somewhere
I like to watch your videos and pretend I know what you are talking about.
are you chasing monday in oklahoma, trey? great video as always
Thank you! If there’s a legit chance at discrete tornadic supercells, then yes, but not seeing much in the way of that at the moment.