Forecast Update - March 25, 2024 - Strong Tornado Threat Takes Aim at the Southeast
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- Опубликовано: 24 мар 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Update on the forecast for today's significant severe weather threat focusing on the Mid-South and Southeast. The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area across parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, where an intensifying squall line (and perhaps discrete supercell development ahead of it) is expected to march east this afternoon into the overnight hours. Intense low-level shear will yield a risk for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong.
A secondary risk area also exists across eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, northwest Missouri, and eastern Kansas. A few stronger low-topped storms may form ahead of the surface low/cold front this afternoon, posing a low-end risk for all severe hazards.
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Not ideal. Amory, Rolling Fork and Silver City, don't need another risk(I'm not in that area but I assume they're still working on coming back from last year) and the Jackson area does not need additional problems with what they've already done through.
Thank you for your concern for this area. My daughter lives in Amory and to look at that town today you would think the tornado just struck. It is a very slow recovery and very sad to see.
Hey everybody Trey here !!
Great analysis as always! Excited to watch how today plays out & I hope nobody is affected too greatly by the storms 🙏🏽
Thank you! Yeah, hopefully the storm mode will preclude a more widespread intense tornado event.
Thanks for the analysis Trey!
Great analysis that covers everything. Best storm channel out there. Thanks.
Thank you so much!
It's very interesting how models are varying a bit on the solution for the day still. NAM still wants to keep this as a squall line and having supercells more embedded into the line itself with tornado chances but the HRRR is just crazy with the line devolving into supercells and some ahead of the line especially....at least it was during the earlier runs compared to now. Should be interesting to see how this evolved but this is a potent as hell system if you get some discrete cells to form.
Great video Trey thanks for your for your thoughts on this event 🙂
Thank you! Of course!
Almost a year to the day of the F4 that blasted Rolling Fork/Silver City. Another risk again. I hope and pray nobody gets hit.
I can attest to the moisture and warmth in Eastern Iowa. It's _muggy_ and warm (after all, we just got 5" of snow Friday).
As always, thank you for the update. I really enjoy how in depth you are.
Thank you! The greatest threat might be west of you, but I’d definitely keep an eye out this afternoon.
I feel like the cloud cover could save this from becoming really intense, but lapse rates seem to be solid ish so we'll see what happens with this
Yeah, continued moisture advection and at least some breaks in the clouds should provide enough instability for robust updrafts, and it's not going to take much with such intense wind profiles. Hopefully, the messier storm mode saves the day.
Really smart video. Well explained and appreciated. Tupelo area here and the winds are pretty wild at times under these clouds. Feels like thunder.
Thank you so much! Be safe today; Tupelo looks to be north of the greatest instability will be, but with these wind profiles in play, it won’t take much.
What about Bolivar County in Mississippi? Do you know of any companies in Mississippi that install underground storm shelters?
There are several that install different set-ups. For instance, Amory has to have above ground types due to flood zone. Some companies have shelters with roofs that can be used for recreation if that is something your property could use. Ideally, getting one installed in a garage is good in a lot of situations. Torshel is one that builds underground but I'm sure there are more. Just ask in your area who they like. Maybe call a fire department or police or even a realtor to see if there's any agreed upon best company in your area. Happy hunting :). We have a basement here so I haven't looked into that for where we are. @@sylvesterjohns7968
@@sylvesterjohns7968 All-hazards risk there today. I am not aware of any companies there, but I'm sure there are a few in MS that can help.
I’ve just finished your series on skew-t and hodographs. I just want to say that I’ve learned more about meteorology in that series than I have anywhere else. You blocked the topics out perfectly, and the lengths of the vids were very manageable.
Anyway, after watching the radar and looking at soundings over the past few hours, it doesn’t really seem like anything super severe is happening down south. I have noticed that there has been low instability, which I’m assuming is what prevented these storms from really intensifying. We do have strong shear, but the lack of major instability seems to have saved the south from very severe storms.
Thank you so much for the kind words! You’re exactly right; despite strong shear, the thermodynamics were just not there. We might see things ramp up overnight, but it’s been a little bit of a dud so far.
Thanks for the analysis! Keep up the awesome videos!
Thank you!!
Hey Trey! Great to see your very deep forecast update as always😊. Keep it up💪
Yesterday I was dissapointed... few storms tried producing tornado but they struggled without better moisture.....So my thoughts under initial forecast when I wrote that we could have better moisture return that expected and beef up convection are came to fruition :) (of course I thought that it could happened yesterday...but who cares😅)
Anyway dixey alley events are mostly very different that great plains imo...they are scarier because of terrain, most tornadoes are rainwrapped and offten events there overperforme...So I hope that today event spare people property and lives especially Rolling Fork area
I was under the rain wrap edge of one a year ago in my truck. For about 45 minutes I could not tell where the road was and a few times I could not feel my tires making contact with the road. They tell ya to get down in a ditch. I can tell you that to even open the door would be a threat of drowning. It's more like being caught in a huge wave at the ocean and praying for the best. Had I been able to even see a ditch I couldn't have gotten into it. There was just so much water it was like swimming in a hurricane in the ocean except that the brutal wind would have swept me up had I been on foot. Like a big, huge wave that would never end. Very scary. The tornadoes -- two of them -- did so much damage.
@fewferfev Or don't zero-meter circulations lol? Unless you're purposely participating in extreme chasing lol. Weather extreme games the zero meters survival challenge lol. Epic storm videos first, safety last lmao.
@@fewferfev Shiiiit...I can only imagine that it was very scary experience. I went something similar when I was caught by strong downburst in field...and I was on foot🤦 . This was the worst 20-25 minuts of my life when angry storm throw at me constant 80-90 miles per hour wind gusts with heavy rain, kicked dirt, broken branches and hail. Visibility? 2 meters maybe.... Roar of wind mixed with sound of sonstant lightning and thunder,breaking trees, piled of roofs and structures around me was nighmare fuel. I never forget that....and even now I remember that sounds and even smell and taste...and this was way weaker than any live through tornado passing😰
I remember as if it were yesterday. We were remodeling a house we bought an hour away. It was a beautiful day: sunny, warm. Not a cloud in the sky. I worked inside the house till later afternoon. Still, nothing amiss. Never once did I think I needed to check the weather channels. Driving home, for 30 minutes, no change. But! In the distance ahead I could see some very dark sky. It was as if the blue had been cut from the dark grey with a knife. So, half way I could see lightning under those clouds. Do you turn around? Do you just go home? I was very tired and wanted to go straight to bed. That's how the story went. In fact, it didn't rain one drop until I got about 15 minutes from home. That 15 minutes wound up taking 45 minutes and a lot of terror. There was no lol-ing. @@railfanningpoints2.045
Yes, people who've never been in these things just don't know what they've missed! I feel ya. Very scary stuff and the kind of thing fervent prayers are prompted by. @@FeRu1906
As always another great analysis, Mr. Trey! Great Job!
Thank you!!
Modest CAPE, weaker low level lapse rates, and strong low level shear. Feels like a classic isolated strong tornado threat for Dixie alley. Hopefully the low level lapse rates are just too weak for robust tornadic activity, which certainly seems possible in my opinion.
19:08 I hope outflow boundaries don't conspire to make tornadoes in southern mode.
Crazy stuff yesterday, had about a half inch of small hail and then nearly a blizzard just hours later in northern CO. During the thunderstorm it was almost all hail, was that because of the very cold air aloft?
Yes, it has to do with the cold air aloft and how the temperature profile is constructed in the vertical in the atmosphere.
That Honograph! Wow.
What does that mean to you?
Im not surprised that is was a bust today
A quick what went wrong video about yesterday would be cool.
It was simply the thermos. I'll have a post a little later on it, but despite incredible kinematics, the thermodynamics left a lot to be desired.
24:24 do storms along main convective lines with the main cold front ever become long-track classic supercells with strong tornadoes in some cases?
Generally not because of competition for ingredients either other storms in the line, but occasionally you can get embedded supercells that can persist for awhile and produce strong tornadoes.
Not gonna lie Im not surprised here as in that time of year Louisiana and the lower coast beneath my homestate of TN always get rough spring weather for sure. Its cuz of the moisture in the gulf and humidity they have down thier as well
Could you perhaps do a video on convective outlook deflation? I've been following the SPC's convective outlook for roughly 15 years and it seems like events in which they used to issue a moderate or enhanced/high end slight risk before they started using enhanced risk they now will issue an enhanced or slight risk. I'm not saying that must be true I just think an interesting topic to cover.
That’s an interesting observation; I’ve actually seen a bit of the opposite (this is just casual observation; I don’t have any actual data on that). It seems like SPC is now able to refine risk areas a bit better; for example, what once used to perhaps be a large Enhanced Risk now will have a smaller Moderate Risk area within it thanks to new/better technology/data sources.
I'm not getting any sound, Trey. Edit: It's working now, strange.
Sounds good for me
@@blueSky1322It works now, but I had to close the YT app a couple of times.
It probably was still rendering for the first few minutes; usually I wait until RUclips's copyright checks are over to publish the videos, but since storms are already ongoing, I wanted to get this out as fast as possible, so I just published it right away.
No sound?
Sound is working on my end
And working on my end, it's you
four year streak for that area
Weather gonna suck for early April
Come on 1.5 mile fatboy wedges lol
This better not come towards my state 😤
SC looks to be in the clear for now
No worries fam. Spring ain't over yet. And if cane season gets active for the Atlantic coast, you can enjoy some cane spawn nadoes later this summer.
Dixie Alley QLCS enjoyers.