Hi Fred, That's a great point. My opinion is that the power law can apply for a very very long time without breaking. According to the power law, Bitcoin should be worth at least $1 Billion in 2100. If you take into account a long-term inflation of 5% it means $23 Million in today's money. If you take into account that 2% of bitcoins a lost each year (lost keys, people dying without giving the keys to their children...), there will be 3.8 Million bitcoins left in 2100. Therefore the value of these 3.8 Million bitcoins in 2100 will be 3.8M x 23M = 87.4 Trillions in equivalent to today's money. It means that Bitcoin in 2100 will be an asset class comparable to Bonds ($133 Trillion) or Stocks ($109 Trillon). This to me seems completely reasonable, and is why I believe that the Power law will continue to hold for several decades and possibly with 4 more orders of magnitude without any problem.
So my first answer is that the power law applies for a VERY long time. The second question is whether the bubbles will be small or large ones (and thus whether we will be at $200K or $500K at the end of the cycle. In my opinion the size of the bubble has nothing to do with the power law. In my opinion the size of the bubble is linked to the growth of global liquidity during the cycle (like Raoul Pal's theory). So it is global macro related. At what rate global liquidity will grow is difficult to predict. My belief is that the main point is to spot the timing right. It is easier than knowing the value of the top. If you spot when the top is you don't really care whether it is at $200K or $400K - in any case it is much higher than $70K
Hi Fred. I personally think you may be a bit over bullish but what do I know? I hope you are spot on! I love your content and do recommend your site. Keep it up.
Fred, I like your content. That sounds amazing! Fred I like this one where you just talk. I enjoy listening to your views and what you share. I watched a lot of your other videos where other shows interview you (Blue Collar Bitcoin, Daily Bone, Bitcoin Matrix, Kitco, etc) and I find your experience, expertise, and your take on things fascinating. Thank you Fred!
How different does the long-term graph of the Power Law model look when it is graphed in real dollars, rather than nominal dollars? On a completely different note: You mentioned getting in with 1; 100; or 1000 Bitcoin. Few of your viewers have anywhere near the sort of money you have. Very few of us are like the Wall Street investors you may have dealt with in the past. Most may be struggling, trying to make it to 1 Bitcoin, or just to hold on to the fraction of a Bitcoin we have, when facing financial hardship. This is probably why Michael Saylor has gone from saying, "One Bitcoin will make you rich" to "Why You NEED To Own Just 0.1 Bitcoin (BTC)".
Do you believe in BTC and the power law or NOT??? You’ve instructed young people to buy BTC instead of a house…and now you speak of the limitations. What do you truly believe as a mathematician statistician? Have you changed your position? Now you’re just a guy looking to make money??? Are you backing out of your bullish position on BTC and the power law?
Question for you Fred. As a bitcoiner, what percentage of your portfolio makes you a bitcoiner? What’s all in so to speak? I’m at 25% and consider that to be a pretty big bet. The unknowns are still unknowable, so I divide my investments into 7 or 8 buckets. Thus, I’m pretty heavy into Btc and a very long term hodl er. Thanks for your content. You don’t seem like the typical btc hopium salesman.
Can you run the power law BTC projection in REAL dollar terms, not nominal. $1M BTC in ten years means what if the Fed is pumping at 10 - 15% inflation?
Is it possible that someone like Blackrock manipulates the bitcoin price so there isn’t blow off tops, keeping the price low with the futures market games played like gold. Is it easier to do with bitcoin because it’s so scarce? Ton of money going in to the ETF’s, the new ETF’s already own a good percent of the total supply, but is the price equally matching the billions of (Net) inflows going in?
@@Tegneaufreak That isn’t what I mean. I know when there is a buyer, there is a seller. I’m talking about the ETF’s inflow. It is relevant when billions (net inflow) go in to the ETF’s that day, those ETF’s are “suppose” to buy that amount of actual bitcoin… to keep the price lower it can be manipulated in Futures Market… a game that has been played for years. So I was wondering if the amount of NET billions going in to the ETF’s, does it match the actual price of Bitcoin. (Net inflow) meaning more money went in to the asset that day, vs sellers
I agree with your comments on the power law. I do think any of these models are based on Bitcoin being used as a store of value only. These models will break to the upside if and when BTC becomes a medium of exchange.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Katherine Miller.
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
She is my family's personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many families in the United states, she is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.
Bitcoin *IS* money. By the time people have bid it to $1 million, it’ll be because they’ve lost faith in the staying power of the US dollar and the whole fiat construct itself. Don’t trade gold for seashells.
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional
“I’m really only here because I want to make money”. At least you’re being honest about not viewing Bitcoin as money and only a vehicle for fiat harvesting. Your videos are all incredibly transparent attempts at pumping your bags so that you can presumably offload them onto the less savvy. Some of us have been here for several cycles you know; your shtick is old hat.
@@dotKruegerVideosi disagree. I have yet to see you explain Power Law. Please reference the comment I just made on this video. And if you have explained Power Law in the terms I described in my comment please consider doing a better job of pointing people to those videos. I may have missed them
Thanks Fred. I have no technical competence, but would like to hear what you think of the Futures market as a source, or not, of kneecapping the price. Cheers
130,000 end of next year was in the ranges he gave, no? Seems very doable, compared to the moon boys out there and historical patterns. Maybe up to 600000 but that's given much much lower weighting.
Развлечения
Bought AMS77H at 1$, I will keep it until 2025 when it reach 250$
It is funny that not everyone knows about AMS77H
My investment portfolios are Bitcoin, ETH and AMS77H
Why don't you consider the melting icecube factor of fiat depreciation? and, the money go brrrrrr factor. BTC to $1trillion USD by 2030!
Hi Fred, your new Webcam is clearer, but a little bright. Fabulous channel. Thank you
yeah i need to tone it down
Very harsh bright.
@@dotKruegerVideos Very harsh bright.
Subscriber numbers won’t go up until you enable notifications. Children’s content won’t notify
Audio is very good.
Hi Fred,
That's a great point.
My opinion is that the power law can apply for a very very long time without breaking.
According to the power law, Bitcoin should be worth at least $1 Billion in 2100.
If you take into account a long-term inflation of 5% it means $23 Million in today's money.
If you take into account that 2% of bitcoins a lost each year (lost keys, people dying without giving the keys to their children...), there will be 3.8 Million bitcoins left in 2100.
Therefore the value of these 3.8 Million bitcoins in 2100 will be 3.8M x 23M = 87.4 Trillions in equivalent to today's money.
It means that Bitcoin in 2100 will be an asset class comparable to Bonds ($133 Trillion) or Stocks ($109 Trillon).
This to me seems completely reasonable, and is why I believe that the Power law will continue to hold for several decades and possibly with 4 more orders of magnitude without any problem.
So my first answer is that the power law applies for a VERY long time.
The second question is whether the bubbles will be small or large ones (and thus whether we will be at $200K or $500K at the end of the cycle.
In my opinion the size of the bubble has nothing to do with the power law.
In my opinion the size of the bubble is linked to the growth of global liquidity during the cycle (like Raoul Pal's theory).
So it is global macro related.
At what rate global liquidity will grow is difficult to predict. My belief is that the main point is to spot the timing right. It is easier than knowing the value of the top.
If you spot when the top is you don't really care whether it is at $200K or $400K - in any case it is much higher than $70K
Hi Fred. I personally think you may be a bit over bullish but what do I know? I hope you are spot on! I love your content and do recommend your site. Keep it up.
I’m with you Fred! HUGE MOVE COMING 💪💪💪
Fred, I like your content. That sounds amazing! Fred I like this one where you just talk. I enjoy listening to your views and what you share. I watched a lot of your other videos where other shows interview you (Blue Collar Bitcoin, Daily Bone, Bitcoin Matrix, Kitco, etc) and I find your experience, expertise, and your take on things fascinating. Thank you Fred!
Thank you for sharing AMS77H💗 I really appreciate it
Why everyone is talking about AMS77H?
How different does the long-term graph of the Power Law model look when it is graphed in real dollars, rather than nominal dollars?
On a completely different note: You mentioned getting in with 1; 100; or 1000 Bitcoin. Few of your viewers have anywhere near the sort of money you have. Very few of us are like the Wall Street investors you may have dealt with in the past. Most may be struggling, trying to make it to 1 Bitcoin, or just to hold on to the fraction of a Bitcoin we have, when facing financial hardship. This is probably why Michael Saylor has gone from saying, "One Bitcoin will make you rich" to "Why You NEED To Own Just 0.1 Bitcoin (BTC)".
Do you believe in BTC and the power law or NOT??? You’ve instructed young people to buy BTC instead of a house…and now you speak of the limitations. What do you truly believe as a mathematician statistician?
Have you changed your position?
Now you’re just a guy looking to make money???
Are you backing out of your bullish position on BTC and the power law?
I am sure that AMS77H will go 100x just like you said
Question for you Fred. As a bitcoiner, what percentage of your portfolio makes you a bitcoiner? What’s all in so to speak? I’m at 25% and consider that to be a pretty big bet. The unknowns are still unknowable, so I divide my investments into 7 or 8 buckets. Thus, I’m pretty heavy into Btc and a very long term hodl er. Thanks for your content. You don’t seem like the typical btc hopium salesman.
Can you run the power law BTC projection in REAL dollar terms, not nominal. $1M BTC in ten years means what if the Fed is pumping at 10 - 15% inflation?
You "just want to make money"? I thought you were a little more idealistic and interested in freedom than that. I think BTC is bigger than than.
Is it possible that someone like Blackrock manipulates the bitcoin price so there isn’t blow off tops, keeping the price low with the futures market games played like gold. Is it easier to do with bitcoin because it’s so scarce? Ton of money going in to the ETF’s, the new ETF’s already own a good percent of the total supply, but is the price equally matching the billions of (Net) inflows going in?
@@Tegneaufreak That isn’t what I mean. I know when there is a buyer, there is a seller. I’m talking about the ETF’s inflow. It is relevant when billions (net inflow) go in to the ETF’s that day, those ETF’s are “suppose” to buy that amount of actual bitcoin… to keep the price lower it can be manipulated in Futures Market… a game that has been played for years. So I was wondering if the amount of NET billions going in to the ETF’s, does it match the actual price of Bitcoin. (Net inflow) meaning more money went in to the asset that day, vs sellers
I agree with your comments on the power law. I do think any of these models are based on Bitcoin being used as a store of value only. These models will break to the upside if and when BTC becomes a medium of exchange.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Katherine Miller.
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
She is my family's personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many families in the United states, she is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.
You trade with Katherine Miller too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
Blowout move will coincide with the third rate cut next year.
2:28 Well, did go down to 50k!!
Those glasses match that room. :)
I believe the slope of the power law will increase gradually over time due to increased demand
Wow what a video guys so much knowledge dropped!
I agree im here to make money idc about S2F or power law etc i know Bitcoin will go to $1M and more and i already have my sell price
Bitcoin *IS* money. By the time people have bid it to $1 million, it’ll be because they’ve lost faith in the staying power of the US dollar and the whole fiat construct itself. Don’t trade gold for seashells.
THANK YOU FRED
I know nothing about trading /investment and l'm keen on getting started. What are some strategies to get started with?
As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. I'm guided
by a widely known crypto
consultant
Mrs Kathy Lynne Colby
This is correct, Kathy's strategy has normalized winning trades for me also and it’s a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started..
Kathy is considered a key Crypto Strategist with one of the best copy Trading Portfolios and also very active in the cryptocurrency space.
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional
Deep fake of Fred? The green screen is obvious.
new camera, settings are off
BTC etf being bought like mad, which means.....price goes down
All my savings were in Gold early 2017. My big bet was I sold half my Gold and bought Bitcoins. My 'wealth' in Bitcoin is now multiples of my Gold.
“I’m really only here because I want to make money”. At least you’re being honest about not viewing Bitcoin as money and only a vehicle for fiat harvesting.
Your videos are all incredibly transparent attempts at pumping your bags so that you can presumably offload them onto the less savvy. Some of us have been here for several cycles you know; your shtick is old hat.
Power law talk getting tired
i kind of agree
Then don’t listen
@@dotKruegerVideosi disagree. I have yet to see you explain Power Law. Please reference the comment I just made on this video.
And if you have explained Power Law in the terms I described in my comment please consider doing a better job of pointing people to those videos. I may have missed them
@@Chris-PBTHOR thank you. Exactly what I did
I'm sure there's some shitcoins out there that you can buy an NFT on!
Thanks for sharing PEPE and AMS77H. 💯
Thanks Fred. I have no technical competence, but would like to hear what you think of the Futures market as a source, or not, of kneecapping the price. Cheers
Interesting that you said you are in bitcoin for money but bitcoin is money… or is that not what you believe?
You got that totally wrong. Bitcoin is money.
What you want is melting fiat.
Did you mean Plan B who is plan C? Curious
Yeah he did
He'll be Plan D in the next video 😂
Plan B was a prominent twitter poster about his model "Plan B" in the last bull run. His model stopped fitting around 2022.
@@ChrisAthanasI think it fits again? It didn’t for a long time though.
Thank you sir...really appreciate your content...
Stop dropping names like youre some ex wall street heavy weight. Youre an ex shipcoiner
Yes, Fred worked on Wall Street for several years. Yes, he is an ex-shitcoiner. He talks about that in many other videos.
This was good. Keep Things Simple.
That all sounds quite reasonable.
I love your insights and value your opinion. Rare bird. Thank you.
130,000 end of next year was in the ranges he gave, no? Seems very doable, compared to the moon boys out there and historical patterns. Maybe up to 600000 but that's given much much lower weighting.
Thanks for the info.
👍🏻🧡🔥🚀
👍🏿
Exactly Fred. No power law can predict an asset price ever. Hocus pocus.
It's a network effect, and power laws apply to that
lol bitcoin is money
Not scaleable so it's not
@@Waynesworrldexcellent Gold didnt scale well and it is still used as money.
@@ChrisAthanas read p1 of wp