The Wall Street Journal had a recent article talking about how movie theaters are in bad shape and need to reopen soon, but the problem is getting the major studios to supply recent films. Major studios will not provide theaters with new movies unless they can open wide throughout the entire United States, so it seems that theaters may open in Texas and a few other states, but they wouldn't have any major new films to show. What they would do is go to 2nd tier, cheaper movies that were ready to run in theaters just before the COVID-19 shutdown. The Wall Street Journal article said that some theaters may fill unused theaters with cult favorites that would draw an audience. So when theaters start to reopen, there is indeed a decent chance that they might show Alita: Battle Angel if enough people tweet that they want to see it. The Journal article said that theaters may have unused capacity for 1 or 2 months until states are less concerned with COVID-19 spreading. In the last month, more information on movie profit structures has come out. The FORBES article on the profitability of Captain Marvel was very helpful, in that it showed that my own profit model was fairly close, but it omitted 4 expenses - video distribution costs, profit participations, residuals & off the tops, and interest expense - which added $66 million to Alita's expenses. Right now I am showing a profit for Alita of $52 million as of 4/19/20, and the only question is marketing expenses. I have used $100 million as the amount Fox spent on worldwide marketing of Alita - which is 50% of Alita's $200 million production budget. Googling movie marketing expenses came up with various websites that stated that big-budget movies like Alita usually budget 60% of the production budget for marketing, so Alita's marketing budget would be expected to be about $120 million. I googled articles on Alita's profit/loss situation and 2 sites stated that Fox probably spent $120 million on marketing. But another site had a poster from Fox commenting that the marketing department was gutted in December 2018 because everyone was jumping ship because Disney had bought the company and the rumor mill stated that most of them would be laid off. The poster said that junior marketing executives were scared of losing their jobs, and they had read articles in the Los Angeles Times tagging Alita as the next big flop that would lose millions. That poster said they decided to spend as little as possible on marketing for Alita, so that the expected loss would not be bigger. That poster said that they left a large percentage of the marketing budget unspent - and they still lost their jobs. Now that's just some unknown poster and I don't know how accurate he is, but I lowered the marketing expenses to Alita from 60% to 50%, and left it at $100 million, resulting in the current $52 million profit for Alita as of 4/19/20. I suspect that my model has understated revenues from China, India & Russia by at least $10 million, and other areas suggest another $10 million of revenues from other sources. The bottom line is that at 4/19/20, Alita has a profit of $52 million, and is heading to a profit of $80 million by the end of this year. That $80 million profit would be a 24% return on investment, and most movie studios would greenlight a sequel at that level of profit. And note that Alita is heading for another $20 million of profit over the years 2021 to 2023 from further syndication. Another article on Disney noted that Disney wants only "tentpole" movies, meaning they only want hugely profitable movies with at least a 30% return. Alita will actually hit that return, but probably not until 2021 or 2022. So as for Disney greenlighting an Alita sequel in the next few months, the answer is that Alita appears to be on the borderline, and Disney could go either way. Since Alita is borderline, that would suggest that the Alita Army needs to try something else this month. I recommend another mass tweet to Disney, but this time try to get the number of tweets to hit at least 30,000. That would probably get Disney's attention.
I would say whenever we do another mass tweet it should be tied with a very strong event or reason. Nothing we should do standalone. For instance if we can AMC or any other chain to bring Alita back to the big screen it would be such a reason. Or 9/9, the Billboard in New York or any kind of such event. It strengthens your argument. So we need to reach out to the cinema chains and get Alita back to the big screen. Also another point. You brought up Deadpool. It is a highly successful movie but still the third one didn't get announced cause Disney doesn't want that kind of movies as it seems. It's weird. The most like scenario for Alita will be under a different umbrella like Paramount.
@@Juice-chan Holy shit that 9/9 new york billboard idea is brilliant. And your reasoning for having the mass tweets tied into a larger event smacks of marketing savvy. I wasn't feeling optimistic that an Alita sequel would happen but reading these posts gives me hope. In any event getting an Alita sequel billboard in Times Square on 9/9 would be amazing. What would a thing like that cost?
@@ravalos001 Thank you very much. Such a billboard would cost 1800$ the last time I checked on it. It would play our advertisement every second minute for 15 seconds for at least 2 or 3 days. So the price is reasonable and the #AlitaArmy can fund this in no time. I am not sure if you are on Twitter but a lot of the ideas get tossed around in the fandom there. And if you want to follow closer what happens you can join us there.
Man I still remember when there were only a few hundred people who initially signed the petition including myself. People were telling me that the petition would never get far or amount to anything now look where it's at and how far it's come. I'm so happy that Alita continues to gains supporters. This masterpiece does deserve a few sequels "I'm just an insignificant girl."
@Revan I think his name as director would've helped a lot with viewership, or maybe not and he was cautious to sidestep a potential bomb. Love the manga, wish the movie was more successful.
Great that the petition is thro' 150k signatures! Absolutely GREAT that South Korea have put Alita back on the big screen, fingers crossed that it gets a 're-release' in the US and maybe UK? I also noticed that the Blu-ray package for Alita had some serious issues - not available (?) for a very long time...As for the Emma Watts saga - I think you are bang on - I hope she will re-appear soon as I think she will 'make things happen' and is a close friend of one James Cameron! I agree that once Avatar 2 is out attention may turn back to the Alita sequel. I truly believe that Cameron LOVES this story - and he won't let it die - and nor will we! Thanks again Doc for a superb update!
The story is timeless and has soul. That's a hard thing for the business side of current Disney to pull off. If they leave the vision to the artist there's great potential here. The more I share the more people get in to it. The seeds have sprouted and I hope to see flowering soon.
One thing fans can do locally is to message or email their local theaters to have Alita play after they opened. Simply give a brief explanation how many know now about Alita and regret not seeing it on the big screen etc etc.
As long as they (the producers) take extra care and still follow the source material and the existing story arc in the first movie, I don't mind if James Cameron have to take Alita to another studio. Heck, I wouldn't even be surprised if Tencent Studios (The studio that produce/release transformers Bumblebee movie) gets involve into the making of the Alita sequels
Heyag'in Doc.. great surprise news about Alita back in N. Korean theaters yes, I think that now with the near total turnaround of critics and public opinion about Alita she satand's a very, very good chance of even also being rereleased in The States thanks and you also stay safe my main Alita guy!
I saw Aliya a few weeks ago and was.impressed by how damn good it was. Caught me by surprise. It needs a sequel,.but I just hope Disney doesn't feminize it like they star wars.
As long as James Cameron, Robert Rodriguez and Jon Landau are in charge, Alita will be fine. We just need to worry about the idiots above them refusing to give them full control. Fortunately, Cameron's well known for fighting tooth and nail to get his movies made the way HE wants, not the studios.
What's so disappointing about Resident Evil being a guilty pleasure of James Cameron? Alita: Battle Angel is an amazing movie, Cameron would never feel guilty about loving it :P
Hey Doc - maybe feature a vid on all of Rosa’s volunteering during the pandemic: our queen is on the streets offering help feeding and clothing the needy in person
They should most definitely give us a sequel and if the sequel doesn’t makes the money well at least they have prof that it doesn’t works. But I’m sure that this film or the sequel will definitely will make more money not a billion but great money 💵
Gotta wonder what affect Covid-19 will have on potential sales if theatres pick it up right now, but I guess any showings regardless will be good. Petition's getting a bit of momentum. Thanks Doc.
@Radio Kaos (NZ Level 2) Cinemas are now open (with restrictions) and attendance has been minimal due to the lack of new material. I wonder how *ABA* will perform under these circumstances. I think I would rather wait for when some form of normality returns.
@Revan At the moment Level 2 is as far as we're likely to go as Level 1 is total elimination meaning a curable vaccine has been found and that could be months away. Jobs and businesses have been lost and money is short for everyone right now. I would dearly love to see *ABA* back in cinemas but question whether it's a feasible option right now. I'd love to be proven wrong.
For those truly interested in the Alita universe, the manga, anime, movie and check out the RUclips comic and anime channel of "Jaya Nice Day". He has at least 35 videos on various topics on Alita dating back to 2016 before most people even heard of Alita. He's given shoutouts to many Alita channels, including Doc Ido.
the manga lasted almost 2 decades, there is so much to see, I know all its history but I am not going to spoil, I just tell you that the best is yet to come
Alita Army should come out full on with how DC Army came out with Snyder's Cut JL that changed the history. I believe that's one of the thing how Alita sequel can ONLY work. So what are you still doing Alita Army and what are you waiting for?
Sequal please !!! I've got more time for Alita than starwars. But also want them to take their time, hire decent writers, director and deliver a good story..... If that takes time then take that time and do it right
You are asking the right question. Doc Ido's projection was that it should get a sequel if the trajectory was consistent with other movies that got sequels. But we have heard an update from him or anyone.
I still hope like Emma Disney releases Alita so it can be made amazing like the first one free of political pandering that Disney is famous for now instead of storyline. The story has always been what mattered. Politics suck.
I’m actually not that hot on series 1, I’m waiting for Last Order Book 1, and 2 made in to the movie, because these 2 books are GOLD! “... Too scrawny, you kinda need to work out, PLAY SPORT!” “Splash” rated R right there...
'Resident Evil'?! Mr Cameron, why? Why not 'ALIENS'? Why not 'Terminator: Judgement Day'? Why not 'The Abyss'? WHY NOT 'ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL'???????????????????
Deadpool 1&2 were good films, but not the sort of films that disney would want to be associated with.... if we did get a DEadpool 3 from the house of mouse then it would be a watered-down, homogenized PG-13 version which will ruin what made Deadpool so refreshing. Alita on the other hand may be a lot more to disney's taste if they think that it will make sufficient money off of it. My fear though is if they do green-light a sequel that they will make too many changes because they just don't understand the material
Ok but whereas Deadpool doesn't fit into Disney's family friendly image at all, Alita does kinda fit into Disney's woke girl-power female impowerment agenda, so I wouldn't see Deadpool's lack of a sequel as a big threat Alita.
This movie is the best movie made that year, hands down. And whoever agrues with that shall be purged! Seriously though this movie is so good it gave me hope that American movies would become better again, then the following movies made me realize Alita was just a floke and we will never get a good movie on purpose again. I fear the sequel will be choked full of NPC bullshit because once the NPCs realize something is popular their goal is to infect it to ruin it. So while I'll watch a Sequel I just expect it to be complete shit full of political bullshit like typical propaganda films they make in Holywood these days
The Wall Street Journal had a recent article talking about how movie theaters are in bad shape and need to reopen soon, but the problem is getting the major studios to supply recent films. Major studios will not provide theaters with new movies unless they can open wide throughout the entire United States, so it seems that theaters may open in Texas and a few other states, but they wouldn't have any major new films to show. What they would do is go to 2nd tier, cheaper movies that were ready to run in theaters just before the COVID-19 shutdown. The Wall Street Journal article said that some theaters may fill unused theaters with cult favorites that would draw an audience. So when theaters start to reopen, there is indeed a decent chance that they might show Alita: Battle Angel if enough people tweet that they want to see it. The Journal article said that theaters may have unused capacity for 1 or 2 months until states are less concerned with COVID-19 spreading.
In the last month, more information on movie profit structures has come out. The FORBES article on the profitability of Captain Marvel was very helpful, in that it showed that my own profit model was fairly close, but it omitted 4 expenses - video distribution costs, profit participations, residuals & off the tops, and interest expense - which added $66 million to Alita's expenses. Right now I am showing a profit for Alita of $52 million as of 4/19/20, and the only question is marketing expenses. I have used $100 million as the amount Fox spent on worldwide marketing of Alita - which is 50% of Alita's $200 million production budget. Googling movie marketing expenses came up with various websites that stated that big-budget movies like Alita usually budget 60% of the production budget for marketing, so Alita's marketing budget would be expected to be about $120 million. I googled articles on Alita's profit/loss situation and 2 sites stated that Fox probably spent $120 million on marketing. But another site had a poster from Fox commenting that the marketing department was gutted in December 2018 because everyone was jumping ship because Disney had bought the company and the rumor mill stated that most of them would be laid off. The poster said that junior marketing executives were scared of losing their jobs, and they had read articles in the Los Angeles Times tagging Alita as the next big flop that would lose millions. That poster said they decided to spend as little as possible on marketing for Alita, so that the expected loss would not be bigger. That poster said that they left a large percentage of the marketing budget unspent - and they still lost their jobs.
Now that's just some unknown poster and I don't know how accurate he is, but I lowered the marketing expenses to Alita from 60% to 50%, and left it at $100 million, resulting in the current $52 million profit for Alita as of 4/19/20. I suspect that my model has understated revenues from China, India & Russia by at least $10 million, and other areas suggest another $10 million of revenues from other sources. The bottom line is that at 4/19/20, Alita has a profit of $52 million, and is heading to a profit of $80 million by the end of this year. That $80 million profit would be a 24% return on investment, and most movie studios would greenlight a sequel at that level of profit. And note that Alita is heading for another $20 million of profit over the years 2021 to 2023 from further syndication.
Another article on Disney noted that Disney wants only "tentpole" movies, meaning they only want hugely profitable movies with at least a 30% return. Alita will actually hit that return, but probably not until 2021 or 2022. So as for Disney greenlighting an Alita sequel in the next few months, the answer is that Alita appears to be on the borderline, and Disney could go either way.
Since Alita is borderline, that would suggest that the Alita Army needs to try something else this month. I recommend another mass tweet to Disney, but this time try to get the number of tweets to hit at least 30,000. That would probably get Disney's attention.
Thank you for such a grand comment.
Appreciated
I would say whenever we do another mass tweet it should be tied with a very strong event or reason. Nothing we should do standalone. For instance if we can AMC or any other chain to bring Alita back to the big screen it would be such a reason. Or 9/9, the Billboard in New York or any kind of such event. It strengthens your argument.
So we need to reach out to the cinema chains and get Alita back to the big screen.
Also another point. You brought up Deadpool. It is a highly successful movie but still the third one didn't get announced cause Disney doesn't want that kind of movies as it seems. It's weird. The most like scenario for Alita will be under a different umbrella like Paramount.
@@Juice-chan Holy shit that 9/9 new york billboard idea is brilliant. And your reasoning for having the mass tweets tied into a larger event smacks of marketing savvy. I wasn't feeling optimistic that an Alita sequel would happen but reading these posts gives me hope. In any event getting an Alita sequel billboard in Times Square on 9/9 would be amazing. What would a thing like that cost?
@@ravalos001 Thank you very much. Such a billboard would cost 1800$ the last time I checked on it. It would play our advertisement every second minute for 15 seconds for at least 2 or 3 days.
So the price is reasonable and the #AlitaArmy can fund this in no time. I am not sure if you are on Twitter but a lot of the ideas get tossed around in the fandom there. And if you want to follow closer what happens you can join us there.
The fact that there are still articles about an Alita sequel a year later is a good sign!
*looks at Half Life 3 dreamers*
Oh you sweet summer child.
I would go to watch ALITA without hesitation if the movie back in theaters now in NYC~
Man I still remember when there were only a few hundred people who initially signed the petition including myself. People were telling me that the petition would never get far or amount to anything now look where it's at and how far it's come. I'm so happy that Alita continues to gains supporters. This masterpiece does deserve a few sequels
"I'm just an insignificant girl."
Also you're correct. I believe 404,852,543 was the last value shown on Alita's box office
Thought so. I've seen that number so many times it's ingrained somewhere deep inside lol
Wow...
This is a bit of a surprise... but a good one.
And nice to see you back, Doc!
I would love to see Alita back in theaters again.
If they re-release Alita in the US, I'd see it a few more times for sure.
Alita is not Camerons guilty pleasure because there is nothing to feel guilty about. It is his pleasure pleasure movie.
i wish he had directed it though :/
@Revan I think his name as director would've helped a lot with viewership, or maybe not and he was cautious to sidestep a potential bomb. Love the manga, wish the movie was more successful.
Here we goooo
Thanx for the free repairs doc. Always nice to see some good stuff during these times.
Great that the petition is thro' 150k signatures! Absolutely GREAT that South Korea have put Alita back on the big screen, fingers crossed that it gets a 're-release' in the US and maybe UK? I also noticed that the Blu-ray package for Alita had some serious issues - not available (?) for a very long time...As for the Emma Watts saga - I think you are bang on - I hope she will re-appear soon as I think she will 'make things happen' and is a close friend of one James Cameron! I agree that once Avatar 2 is out attention may turn back to the Alita sequel. I truly believe that Cameron LOVES this story - and he won't let it die - and nor will we! Thanks again Doc for a superb update!
The story is timeless and has soul. That's a hard thing for the business side of current Disney to pull off. If they leave the vision to the artist there's great potential here. The more I share the more people get in to it. The seeds have sprouted and I hope to see flowering soon.
One thing fans can do locally is to message or email their local theaters to have Alita play after they opened. Simply give a brief explanation how many know now about Alita and regret not seeing it on the big screen etc etc.
Woooo glad to hear this!!!
🙏👏👏💯💯🥰🥰🥰
#AlitaArmy
I'd say if avatar 2 makes a fortune well definitely get alita 2 greenlit
As long as they (the producers) take extra care and still follow the source material and the existing story arc in the first movie, I don't mind if James Cameron have to take Alita to another studio. Heck, I wouldn't even be surprised if Tencent Studios (The studio that produce/release transformers Bumblebee movie) gets involve into the making of the Alita sequels
Super👍👍👍👍👍
#AlitaSequel
Heyag'in Doc.. great surprise news about Alita back in N. Korean theaters yes, I think that now with the near total turnaround of critics and public opinion about Alita she satand's a very, very good chance of even also being rereleased in The States thanks and you also stay safe my main Alita guy!
I saw Aliya a few weeks ago and was.impressed by how damn good it was. Caught me by surprise. It needs a sequel,.but I just hope Disney doesn't feminize it like they star wars.
As long as James Cameron, Robert Rodriguez and Jon Landau are in charge, Alita will be fine. We just need to worry about the idiots above them refusing to give them full control. Fortunately, Cameron's well known for fighting tooth and nail to get his movies made the way HE wants, not the studios.
Any auditions for the sequel available? I mean, it would be really fun to be a part of this and go see how I would do in the film.
bruh
Would love to watch Alita in Theatre again!! Thank you very much Doc for another Repair!!! Go Alita!!M
What's so disappointing about Resident Evil being a guilty pleasure of James Cameron? Alita: Battle Angel is an amazing movie, Cameron would never feel guilty about loving it :P
I heard about this but I didn't know if anybody had said anything about it in one of your channels.Great to hear from you again Doc.
We need the Alita/Joshugan story arc! 🤣
Those chapters were _Legendary!_
Thanks, Doc!
Hey Doc - maybe feature a vid on all of Rosa’s volunteering during the pandemic: our queen is on the streets offering help feeding and clothing the needy in person
We'll Keep Fighting.
They should most definitely give us a sequel and if the sequel doesn’t makes the money well at least they have prof that it doesn’t works. But I’m sure that this film or the sequel will definitely will make more money not a billion but great money 💵
Any idea if the South Korean borders are open? I suddenly feel like visiting the country.
Me too, and I don't think it's the CoronaVirus, either lol
It's been a while Doc, nice to get an update, especially during the shutdown.
Once your local cinemas reopens Maybe even try requesting alita in person too!
Gotta wonder what affect Covid-19 will have on potential sales if theatres pick it up right now, but I guess any showings regardless will be good. Petition's getting a bit of momentum. Thanks Doc.
@Radio Kaos (NZ Level 2) Cinemas are now open (with restrictions) and attendance has been minimal due to the lack of new material. I wonder how *ABA* will perform under these circumstances. I think I would rather wait for when some form of normality returns.
@Revan At the moment Level 2 is as far as we're likely to go as Level 1 is total elimination meaning a curable vaccine has been found and that could be months away. Jobs and businesses have been lost and money is short for everyone right now. I would dearly love to see *ABA* back in cinemas but question whether it's a feasible option right now. I'd love to be proven wrong.
Great movie ! A sequel should be a no brainer
For those truly interested in the Alita universe, the manga, anime, movie and check out the RUclips comic and anime channel of "Jaya Nice Day". He has at least 35 videos on various topics on Alita dating back to 2016 before most people even heard of Alita. He's given shoutouts to many Alita channels, including Doc Ido.
I love this movie. Keep up promoting it and bothering Disney about a sequel. I want more Alita not more Avatar.
if you go on Ryan Renolds IMBD site there is a listing for dead pool 3
Please make a sequel! Everyone buy the movie! It will help Disney understand they will make a profit!
the manga lasted almost 2 decades, there is so much to see, I know all its history but I am not going to spoil, I just tell you that the best is yet to come
Do you know in which states alita is back in theatres?
It was in South Korea! We are trying to ask for states in the US to bring it back.
Thanks
Alita Army should come out full on with how DC Army came out with Snyder's Cut JL that changed the history. I believe that's one of the thing how Alita sequel can ONLY work. So what are you still doing Alita Army and what are you waiting for?
Sequal please !!!
I've got more time for Alita than starwars.
But also want them to take their time, hire decent writers, director and deliver a good story..... If that takes time then take that time and do it right
Any updates on the Blu ray sales?
You are asking the right question. Doc Ido's projection was that it should get a sequel if the trajectory was consistent with other movies that got sequels. But we have heard an update from him or anyone.
I still hope like Emma Disney releases Alita so it can be made amazing like the first one free of political pandering that Disney is famous for now instead of storyline. The story has always been what mattered. Politics suck.
Sorry guys Alita to Adult for Disney and so is dead pool so they need to find a new home
Hulu? Or just make a 20th Century streaming service.
I’m actually not that hot on series 1, I’m waiting for Last Order Book 1, and 2 made in to the movie, because these 2 books are GOLD! “... Too scrawny, you kinda need to work out, PLAY SPORT!” “Splash” rated R right there...
I always thought there would be a sequel anyways!🤔
Also if anyone was to get deadpool 3 made its Ryan Reynolds
It will always be fox studios to me
All of the commentors rate the movie every where like imbd ,amazone, playstore i also done this
Where do you sign the petition?
www.change.org/p/robert-rodriguez-alita-battle-angel-part-2
It was in the description too
There are theatres open?
I'm curious, how many sign petitions have been made?
'Resident Evil'?! Mr Cameron, why? Why not 'ALIENS'? Why not 'Terminator: Judgement Day'? Why not 'The Abyss'?
WHY NOT 'ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL'???????????????????
Wait, it’s back in theaters?
Deadpool 1&2 were good films, but not the sort of films that disney would want to be associated with.... if we did get a DEadpool 3 from the house of mouse then it would be a watered-down, homogenized PG-13 version which will ruin what made Deadpool so refreshing. Alita on the other hand may be a lot more to disney's taste if they think that it will make sufficient money off of it. My fear though is if they do green-light a sequel that they will make too many changes because they just don't understand the material
Ok but whereas Deadpool doesn't fit into Disney's family friendly image at all, Alita does kinda fit into Disney's woke girl-power female impowerment agenda, so I wouldn't see Deadpool's lack of a sequel as a big threat Alita.
Why is the Korean flag on the thumbnail?
Cool idea, but petitions won’t help. Disney is megatarded when it comes to what people really want.
This movie is the best movie made that year, hands down. And whoever agrues with that shall be purged! Seriously though this movie is so good it gave me hope that American movies would become better again, then the following movies made me realize Alita was just a floke and we will never get a good movie on purpose again. I fear the sequel will be choked full of NPC bullshit because once the NPCs realize something is popular their goal is to infect it to ruin it. So while I'll watch a Sequel I just expect it to be complete shit full of political bullshit like typical propaganda films they make in Holywood these days