Forecast Discussion - May 18, 2024 - Extended Stretch of Severe Weather Expected This Week
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- Опубликовано: 11 июн 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
A very active stretch of severe weather is expected to begin tomorrow (Sunday, May 19) and last through at least the end of the coming work week. SPC has outlined multiple days of severe weather potential from tomorrow onward, and we'll discuss them in this video. We'll dive into tomorrow's potential before doing our typical model comparison/contrast for the coming week's threats.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
3:09 Current conditions
7:57 Tomorrow's setup
21:27 Monday's setup
33:00 Tuesday's setup
43:35 Looking beyond Tuesday
44:26 Wrap-up 
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When there is downtime i feel like a good "forecast explainer" video could be the various models and their known strengths and biases.
I know it is mentioned a lot already, but I feel like a video that dives deeper into the topic could be informative.
I have that on my list!
Hell yea more forecast discussions from Trey!
at 14:14 it looks like the dewpoints are saying 🤘🏽 we rock at fuelling storms, look at us in the 70s!
Trey I’m baffled as to why you don’t work for NWS. I can’t think of anyone more deserving. Though maybe you have an even cooler job I’m not aware of!
He appears to be his own boss, that's a luxury not to be surrendered lightly.
I dunno but dude def smart enough to be up on their I wish Reed and trey would team up that be like a super team. I'd say Ryan hall but feel he's more of a weatherman not chaser . Ryan chases but not like these guys trey barely has time to make these videos. He runs his own chasing tour prob hard to do it all from hotel to hotel
I’m sure Trey could work for whoever! Not only a masters but storm chasing experience.
@@patricklaurojr7427 Check out Pecos Hank, he's my favorite chaser.
Thank you for that; I really appreciate it! I’m not a huge fan of shift work, so I decided against the NWS route. But I’m not closing that door, so maybe one day! I love being out in the field, which is why I do storm chasing tours.
I hope everyone stays safe and sound. 🌈 I'll have to let my family know about Tuesday, most of them are in Wisconsin.
Yeah, same. I live in wisconsin and this is a rather ununsual setup. In upper wisconsin all we tend to get is storms and wind. This is different
Man id love to be on a tour led by trey
DVN really hamering home a damaging wind threat for tuesday in their AFD this afternoon.
Thank you for the breakdown, will be interesting to see how it evolves
Tuesday is an avocado
🤣
Thanks for everything you provide and teach, much appreciated.
Well done, thanks for this 👍👍 I think my play will be for the "tail-end charlie" if we get one along the Kansas/OK border moving into that low level jet close to sunset? We shall see. Stay safe to those going out there 👌
Thank you! I think that’s a great play; will definitely be the best shot for anything more discrete with an all-hazards threat.
And this pattern may hold through into Early June which is insane. We are already #3 all time on tornadoes in a given year to this point. It will be interesting how far we can still go this year and this looks soooooo active.
The Day 4 outlook and set up for Tuesday will be interesting how much the stuff can be discrete before the likely MCS for even derecho forms and becomes just a wicked wind event.
Even the SPC likely the guidances beyond day 6 to hold and stay trough/ridge pattern. We may be in for a crazy stretch again and the CFS modeling the SPC had, has been kind of on point this year. I don't trust that mid-June when we are out there for 5 days will be so but hey as long as the omega block doesn't show yup....it will be VERY hot in the Eastern U.S. for a while.....we will be near or at 90F in Albany next week.....that is not normal for May.
85F and mostly sunny here in SE OK.
Whew...the air is thick.
Tuesday gonna be interesting for me in Madison, WI
Thanks trey. Hope you enjoyed your break time!
Thank you! It was nice to have a bit of a reprieve, but I’m glad we’re revving it back up!
Thank you so much. I'm trying myself to figure out Wednesday for Ohio, particularly Southern and Central. If you could give me any tips, I would appreciate your help. The cape is going to be there as you know. Thank you in advance.
It’s a bit unclear at this point; we’ll definitely know more over the next couple days. I plan on having updates as needed as these individual days approach, so stay tuned.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you. You bet I'll be tuning in.
Nice thing about chasing in Iowa is the nice gravel roads in an every mile cross hatch. Generally not too many trees either. But the most amazing and artistic photos are still the ones coming from Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma. Of course I'm crazy enough to believe these states are gorgeous i.e. Flint Hills in Kansas 😁
I do really enjoy chasing in Iowa for that reason. Same with Illinois. And I’m with you; I think these Plains states are beautiful, too!
Heading to Wichita Falls, TX Tuesday evening through Friday afternoon. How much potential is there in that Red River region? New to the channel because we just bought a business down there and tornadoes have been on my mind ever since!
It looks like the main threat will be northeast of there for the most part. Could be some action on Tuesday and perhaps on Thursday, but it looks to be isolated at best.
Tuesday I think will be a significant event for 2024
We shall see!
Especially for Wisconsin. Days like this rarely happen, I think I've experienced them a few times in my life (I was too young to know about the weather around the 2010's)
Thanks as always
Thanks much, Trey👍
Yay, been craving content
14 seconds ago is crazy
Great forecast discussion as always Trey always appreciate it 😁
Thank you!
Excellent detail and discussion👌👍
Thank you!
Very limited forcing. Looks like a summer time setup for sun-mon
I think SPC is thinking storm initiation will happen as early as 10 or 11 on Tuesday like the last outbreak in Iowa and that’s why the 30% is further west
That is true but it appears to me the surface low, which would be the favored area for storm initiation, is farther north, so the main area should be farther north as well
@@ConvectiveChronicles I was looking at the 250mb winds on this morning’s 06z run and that appears to be lagging behind quite a bit. How does that factor into it? Could that be another reason SPC is looking further south and west?
@@danieljordan9004 It looks like they've identified two areas of most elevated risk with their new D3 outlook: one up in S MN/WI/IA/IL ahead of the sfc low and one along the dryline in E KS/MO. So it does appear that they've highlighted the main area ahead of the midlevel trough and surface low, as well as more isolated development given weaker forcing down the dryline.
I’ve been driving around the Chicago area for work and I got sunburnt in my car today. I can’t imagine what it’s like in Texas rn 😮
It’s definitely toasty down here in OK!
East Iowa here... it is SO incredibly muggy. There's been mentions of a potential derecho in the last 12 hours. Many in Linn/Benton counties are still VERY gunshy over this so I'm just hoping it doesn't go that way.
I hear you…be safe tomorrow
You da man!
Wow on my birthday.
Thanks for the videos as always. I've been trying to find information about the tours you are involved with. Are they available to the public? If not, any recommendations for a tour company?
Yes! I work for Extreme Tornado Tours; you can find more info at extremetornadotours.com
Thanks!@@ConvectiveChronicles
@@ConvectiveChronicles How do you book people for weather, one wonders. I mean, sure...sometimes we get some ideas about upcoming systems, but I guess I just don't see how you contact, round up, and get people out to see the not so rare (for this lifelong Okie) tornado.
@@JanicePhillips our guests book well in advance, so sometimes the weather just doesn't work out. We design our tours to be long enough that usually there'll be at least a good chance or two to chase severe storms. But, we try to fill the tour with enriching activities even if the weather is slow (Twister Museum in Wakita, Wichita Mountains in SW OK, Badlands in SD, etc.).
@@ConvectiveChronicles Ah...that makes sense. I'd always wondered how that works. Much appreciated.
Thank you for this great video / I have a question about what is called “ low level jet” / some summers here in eastern Oklahoma, we have had heavy rains, storms, and flooding, especially in July and August, the report will say that the low level jet starts up after dark and causes the storms to produce a lot of rain before it subsides in the morning / So this jet is something that occurs only at night? Thank you
Thank you! The low-level jet (LLJ) can be present at any time. Sometimes on big severe weather days, you'll see it during the day ahead of a strong low-level cyclone (next big risk day, watch the low clouds racing northward in the morning...that's the LLJ). But, the LLJ does wax and wane on a diurnal cycle...during the day, it does tend to wane a bit, but it consistently ramps up after dark.
I live in southern Wisconsin and am watching Tuesday with bated breath. Do you think this could be one of the more substantial threats Wisconsin has seen?
It’s tough to say since there is some lingering model discrepancy, but I would prepare as if the threat will feature all hazards. We’ll know more over the next couple days
East-central wisonsinite here, it is certainly one of the more concerning setup we have seen in a while. Told my mom to be weather aware on Tuesday being the family weather nerd.
Thanks for the vid. As always well done. Do you see Indianapolis being impacted by this severe weather?
Thank you! It’s unclear at this point, but I’d keep an eye out just in case
@@ConvectiveChronicles Ok sounds good. Thank you.
I actually took Monday-Tuesday off work next week, put in the request on Thursday expecting to chase tomorrow/Monday in the Plains when they were looking a little more significant than they are now IMO. Don't get me wrong, someone will probably have a good chase day but I no longer think it'll be worth the haul from Madison especially when Tuesday will be much closer.
Coming from all the way up there, I think that’s a good call given some of the flies in the ointment.
Derecho on Tuesday
We’ll see
Will Wednesday have severe in northern Ohio?
I’d keep an eye out
Hey Trey is Alpena Michigan gonna be good from the severe part
Most likely yes, but keep an eye out
@@ConvectiveChronicles okay thanks I figured mostly lower peninsula would be getting worst but thanks dude keep doin what you do have a great night and great week
@@Jordan92129 Thank you, you too!
Is southeast Michigan in danger on tuesday or Wednesday..? Please I'm scared....
You don't need to be scared in the slightest
@@flyingfluke4427 Metro Detroit will be fine...? 😭
Keep an eye out but it looks like the greatest threat will be west/southwest of you
really curious how the mixing of the dews evolves on Sunday
Yeah, we’ll see how that plays out