Foreign Policy Live: Has China peaked?
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- Опубликовано: 18 июн 2024
- This week, enjoy a special episode from our friends at Foreign Policy Magazine from their podcast FP Live.
Has China peaked? After decades of record economic growth, China’s economy is showing signs of a slowdown. In the world’s second-largest economy, recent numbers show a reduced rate of growth. Michael Beckley, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and popularizer of the term “peak China,” argues that China’s rise is not as inevitable as it once was. Keyu Jin, a tenured professor at the London School of Economics, says that while China has its issues, theories about its decline are often wrong. Joining Foreign Policy’s Ravi Agrawal, they debate the possibilities of China’s economic future.
The Doha Debates Podcast returns with a new debate in two weeks.
This episode originally aired July 2023.
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Michael Beckley sounds so much like Gordon Chang.
There goes all credibility.
Beckley is Gordon Chang in disguise! Beckley is worried abput Xi JinPing. That is just laughable. Jin is not involved in a debate. Jin is a presenter of facts about China as against Beckley's conjectures!
Exactly, try to copy Gordon Chang. Nothing new, can’t believe someone still invite these people to the show.
Michael is doing "research" from western media headlines and Jin is getting her knowledge from the ground. One is steeped with rhetoric and ideology, one is full of pragmatic observation.
good observation. The moderator also did a good job by staying calm and balanced.
Jin backs her analysis with data and is a formidable debater...most western experts fail to appreciate her brilliance.
😂
That's because she isn't brilliant. Does a reasonable job defending her. But she knows the issues and the lack of confidence in the private companies and the CCP preference for State owned companies. You can almost sense the frustration in her voice. Isaw her late last year talking about her book. The mainly Chinese audience were not convinced Xi will turn the situation around. Structural problems not cyclic
Let me add, Keyu Jin is simply brilliant. As for Beckley, no where near. He was just regurgitating the American anti China narrative, nothing new, nothing meaningful. And this level of thinking is supposed to be the best in the USA.
I disagree. Both sides presented at a very high level as any long-time, open-minded student of these issues will almost certainly acknowledge. And all without acrimony. That will surely pop up here in the comments section and become tedious like so much online.
USA has been so self-absorbed that we are not very close to incisive thinking. Keyu Jin is a remarkable voice of clarity to help us all understand what is happening.
Huawei just proved US wrong again with the launch of Mate 60 PRO mobile phone with Chinese made SMIC 7 nm CPU chip.
Keyu Jin is far more knowledgeable about China, and rather everything else for that matter than this guy. This guy pretends to be an “expert” about China , but he’s just another Gordon Chang .
I’m watching this a few days after huawai released their Mate 60 and laughing at Michael Beckley so hard 😂
I bet you have an iphone.. lol
You are what's called anecdote-captured.
Why her prediction and feeling about China's semi-conductor development was proven so quickly to be precise in the following month after the interview. She's got some real talent. It's fascinating!
@@lettucesalad3560no I don't 😂😂😂😂
She is a thousand times more Intillengent than this BS Michael
Hats off to Professor Jin!! I love how she stands her ground in this debate - she's so articulate and top of her field. What she illuminates most is western critics attempt to view China through their own lens...having studied everything China for so many years now, I realise (as a westerner) this is a flawed approach.
Yeah, that is always the case for these "China experts", if China does something, they always think what sinister plan is doing as this is what the US does naturally. They always assume China will do what the US always does.
little pink bot
Oh oh white guy got triggered.... - the end is near@@robertbraden4454
Dr. Jin is right. She gives a modern version of China´s growth and its potential for future growth. The Chinese are much more Confucian than communist. Entrepreneurialism is endemic to Chinese culture. This confuses Westerners who have a zero-gain mentality. Win-Win cooperation is also endemic to Chinese culture. Western experts need to study Chinese culture before discussing China.
win-win doesn't necessarily mean cooperation. According to one of the popular professor in China, win-win means China win twice. You need to really dive into Chinese culture to understand what it is. A system that has been applied for thousands of years is either barbarism or Totalitarianism, deriving people's rights by making them afraid.
I love listening to Dr. Jin talk economics! She’s extremely knowledgeable and speaks very eloquently.
Prof. Kin is definitely First Class, but Michael is I think not even 3rd Class
1st class with distinction !!!!! 😂
As a developing country, China is still finding its way. Is it peaked? I actually thinking the other way, has it bottomed. Seeing extreme capitalism created the giant inequality in the West, China is avoiding the easy route and try hard truely working fot their people. Not easy, hope they find their way. 🙏🏻
China's "Shared Prosperity" will bring out the full potential of all China's citizens
And yet, China is more unequal than the west
？？？You don't actually think the inequality in China is narrower than in the West, do you? Chinese government stopped publishing the Gini coefficient in 2010. The research carried out by South-West Jiaotong University in China suggests that the wealth gap is far beyond the West's, but the government kept saying it's not the case. We know what's going on here. Fake data.
Whenever the economic cycle is coming to an end, you hear that China is going to collapse. But in fact, all countries in the world are not doing well at this time. And every time a new economic cycle starts, we always see China jump ahead because they are more ambitious and efficient than most other countries.
China is good at stealing the ideas of others, nothing else. The US, France Australia and a number of other countries are doing well.....and will continue. China is doomed.
In contrast with Keyu Jin’s insights & knowledge, Michael Beckley seems like a high schooler. His points are riddled with so many fundamental mistakes that simple desktop research would have corrected, eg malnourished and under-educated youths? He seems to have come straight from the 1990s.
Beckley was so obviously lacking in scholarly objectivity, not to mention basic academic rigour. Seriously, Keyu Jin deserves a weightier debate opponent.
A debate between political scientist and economist. Dr. Jin extremely knowledgeable and also politically correct.
little pink bot
It is kind of illogical, even dumb to be talking about the Chinese system as a weakness when all economic indicators shows a successful economy that is adapting and compensating. While criticizing the Chinese system, guys like Michael do not consider the failures of weak governments like the US. The collapsing infrastructure, social chaos, growing poverty and decreasing life span.
All these western economies talk about the wonderful idea of immigration as a solution to low birth rate, the reality is slums, social polarisation, rising poverty. There is little growth in production, if the US and the EU ain't free to just print money, their economies would have collapsed a long time ago.
And about the average level of education today in China,what a joke !
As china become rich, the growth will slow down, 5percent growth is quite good. Another reason of slow down is due to geopolitics an and economic slowdown
I like that Keyu Jin provided a lot of facts and figures. Plus, she has her ear on the ground in China, and can read Chinese official documents in the original language, which surely aids her research.
all you have to do is read the description. Micheal Beckley is a fellow of the American Enterprise Institute. He's spewing Western propaganda, it's getting tired. What's crazy is they actually believe their own crap. You see this during the decline of great civilizations. They are blind to reality.
You know her dad is a CCP state official, right?
@@Hubie10so ? Every single person in China is related or is friends with some in the CPC. They are 90 million people in the CPC. Stop trying to demonize Chinese people who never bombed any countries and fought in forever wars like yours. Cope harder
@@Hubie10 That is good.
@@Hubie10 lol I just looked it up you're right. So I guess you have a debate between a neocon puppet and likely someone with connections to the CCP. Fair enough
Kudos to Dr. Jin for insightful and fact based analysis. As to Michael, if China has peaked and its economy is declining like you and the Western Media claim, then why is the US with its Western allies so obsessed with containing China from rising.
In order to avoid capital monopoly and wealth gap, China is constantly adjusting and releasing some economic bubbles for the scientific development of economy. When China adjusts its economy, Western countries will seize the opportunity to talk down, and the theory of China's collapse is constantly repeated
I really appreciate that they can agree on the facts but disagree on what it means.
😊
Congratulations,Prof. Kin. Well said
Michael , you don’t have to worry about China. Look at the unemployment in your country and those young people around the world. People 16 -24 years old in the West are still studying and living at home because they just can’t afford to rent .Yes China has problems and they will no doubt work on them.There is irk in the country regions. They have suffered from war torn episodes,famines and disasters and still come out though poorer no doubt but stronger.
US unemployment is low because: 1 US is printing money to let them spend
2.many people living in pavements are not counted
During this session, Michael drew upon information from Western media and provided a straightforward interpretation of it.
I think Michel get all his facts/points from distorted Anglo-Saxon media rather than his own
rational,factual,down to earths data/information/facts. Is that the way you teach your students or
the quality of US universities ?
Micheal and Gordon not good for America. America boundless potential needs to compete not sleep.
0:34: 📉 China's rise is peaking due to economic and demographic challenges, geopolitical headwinds, and a lack of dynamism in the economy.
6:34: 📊 China's potential economic growth is still there despite challenges.
12:11: 📉 China's younger generation has a different lifestyle and consumption pattern compared to the older generation, but it is uncertain if their increased spending will solve China's economic problems.
21:31: 📊 China's debt to GDP ratio is at 297 percent and rising rapidly, posing significant economic risks.
23:24: 📈 The Chinese economy operates under a centralized system with strong state control and political factors that hinder reform.
32:05: 🌍 The global geopolitical environment is a significant factor that may impact China's growth.
33:57: 😕 The geopolitical factor of constraining China's rise is seen as a major headwind, but China is responding by mobilizing resources and talent towards breakthrough technologies.
39:33: 🤔 The debate discusses the potential of China's system for innovation and economic reform, while also acknowledging the challenges of vested interests and a top-down model.
45:48: 🇨🇳 China's economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions with the US have created a clear conflict of interest between the two countries.
50:31: 📰 The discussion covered various questions from subscribers and highlighted the importance of reading the works of the guests to gain a deeper understanding of the topic.
Recap by Tammy AI
Well done. Thank you, Tammy.
This is the most intelligent and facts based debate yet on this issue, thanks! Please keep the good work as the Chinese and the US economies are affecting the lives of the majority of the souls on planet earth.
Good discussion, I agreed with Dr. Keyu Jin because she understand China better than Michael and with stronger arguments whereas Michael’s arguments are weak.
The debate between political scientists and economists. Dr. King was knowledgeable and politically correct. The Tesla factory in Shanghai was completed and put into production within a year, which could not have been achieved without the coordination of the local government, let alone the Western countries.
Keyu, great job as always. You are doing a great service to not only China but also the West because they have fallen severely behind seeing the truth and understanding the wave of changes coming ahead of them. The Western mainstream media has failed miserably to educate the public to see things as they are which is a detriment for their societies and people coping and managing the big changes ahead.
Great job Keyu 👍👍👍👍👍
regarding population, as mention, China is reaching western level. the number of under 14 year old for China and US is actually the same in proportion to overall population. so it not like China is in a worst situation. and for China to address these problem is not difficult at all: immigrantion. China has a longer history of absorbing foreign labour than US has been a country, we just don't remember it. many famous chinese historical figure are not ethnic Han, rather then are foreigner that settle and adopted chinese culture. so we are likely to see a repeat of this process as China move to be a net importer of worker like the US. it seem unthinkable that western thinker has never considered this a possibility.
also Chinese like Korean and Japanese are savers, so it not like they become elderly they would have to depend on spending their children money. I have encounter many elderly from east asia that is traveling around Asia, they have money to spend.
it seem rather disingenious that these talking point that were used by the west just a few years ago are completely forgotten today. did the money just disappear? or is US planning to steal all the chinese money like they did with Russia? so let be abit more serious. as for government liabities in China looking "worst" we should remember that China's public sector include SOEs and investment, they may have higher debt but they also have more asset. not to say the local government in China doesn't have problem, but comparing apple to orange won't give you a real picture.
An Lusan was defeated before he had any chance to become emperor@@Rob-iz6nm
Yes .. Chinese industrial out put might be peaking but only for a pause as CPC must find a way to maintain Cash Flow...in September 2023 there are some share buyings in the bankrupted Real Estate groups , as investors are looking for bargains...also Chinese electric cars are beginning to enter international markets which western car companies cannot compete...as for shipping and ship building industries , Chinese ship yards are receiving more orders for the next few years delivery ...and Hua Wei is presenting an alternative to Apple iPhone..thus Chinese economy is still in a transitionary phase .. nothing is permanent .. Chinese economy is being re - organized , moving into a different phase ..
I'll stick with the expert who is actually Chinese.
I agree with her
Seems like another American who reads stats and draws conclusions - but struggles to understand the nature of cultures foreign to their own. The entire Chinese economic model operates as the very antithesis to the Western American dominated and capitalist structured model - where Government corruption is hidden behind the walls of private ownership of politicians and political parties. Having a 'liberalised' economy demands an ownership of Government and control of its structures. The key pivot to the global future will be whether the $US is sustainable as a realistic measure of influence in all economies and how will it deal with a diminished role.
Great insight
Looks like it’s the U.S. that truly needs reforms of their institutions and minds.
This is great debate, thanks for making this happen!
Michael’s analysis is correct because he got his research data from Gordon Chang, however comparing to real results are far off from reality, now and in the future.
Productivity drives long term growth, not a large population per se. If a country has a large population of uneducated and untrained, it’s actually a liability than a bonus.
Jin puts a very optimistic view of China. I worked in China and it's got a LOT of problems, which have been made worse by the CCP. Once they removed any checks and balances from Xi, was "game over" for foreign investors. And they aren't coming back anytime soon. So "yes", China has peaked.
I've seen a lot of Jin debates and she always choose those who are difficult, with people stubbornly defending a western (almost propagandistic anti-Chinese) point of view. But she is always extremely polite and rational, never using the catastrophic state of mayor western countries (the economic stagnation of the UE, the crime, poverty, drug abuse, crumbling infrastructure, systemic racism, social distress and the lack of interest in the US political and economic elites to improve the population situation choosing instead spent the resources in military spending and endless wars). I admire the constrain and willingness to do a rational debate never denying the troubles China has to resolve when almost every "specialist" in front of her not even acknowledges the sad situation of our western societies today.
Dr Jin ❤❤❤
U.S. has growth of 2% and inflation of 4%
China has growth of 5% and inflation of 2%
Good debate.
Peak and bottom are normal stages of any ecosystem. They are to be expected and planned for.
Unless your system only rely on growth (which is dumb).
To the host, thank you too for opening up minds. A suggestion for your next show.
Consider this : Has China or the U.S
peaked ? This will force a more objective and balanced view and discussion. Makes for interesting comparison too where we can openly learn and ponder.
China has not peaked. Only half way there.
USA already peaked in 2008 and been declining since.
Michael thank you too but I wonder if you have visited, lived in or worked in China. Try analyze your own country to see the contrasting realities and failures. I believe will do you good.
Gordon Chang debated with Frank Holmes in Toronto for more than a decade ago, framing or boosting India's Demographic Dividend, it was a myth and made India so happy ever since. When Gordon gives his predictions, you will know what will come out. The moderator looks like an Indian
Gordon Chang Junior. Enough said.
Beckley is too focued on the politics and his own baises, which blinds him to any positive of Chinese system. This irrational emphasis on only the negative cannot lead to logical analysis of currect Chinese situation.
Very well presented from both sides. Also, well done interviewer
Peaked ? It is a relative question. It depends if the West continues to decline, waste time and resources on useless wars, run deficits by money printing, interfer in elec...
Debates?
Micheal ended the discussion with the correct assessment of us China future relations, although his China peak assessment is not a given. To win, one should not underestimate the other.
Michael arguments are so cheap, someone doesn't need to study or even get a doctorate for something like that. His face is so pale, as if his heart has stopped beating.
It is a great pity for Ms. Keju Jin's time.
World's top ranking university vs 191?
The appalling ignorance and miseducation of your male guest, Michael Becklet, makes him look extremely pathetic. He must be describing the american society more than China. I pity his students and worry about their future.
Unfortunately the CCP wouldn't allow this debate to be heard in China. It would be banned or censored!
Talking about debt----- 1.China 's debt is mostly internal (local currency) 2. What about China's
foreign reserve? 3 . China's debts are mostly with local governments.The central government
has very little debt.
This debate is a mismatch in knowledge, information and intelligence. While Keyu backed up her analysis with knowledge and fact, the other guest chose the propaganda path.
It's clear to me Michael's understanding of China is superficial. He probably has not lived in China and experienced vastness and the complexity of the country. His interpretation of the statistics is done through a western lens and a stereotyped political bias. If he is truly interested in China, I would encourage him to live in the country, learn the language, experience the culture and then expose himself to a society that does not necessarily behave the way that he is imagining.
China peaking is like the buses arriving . When it arrives , it come in pairs ! Spoiler Alert NOT A JOKE !
Hello - Why not have Policy Debate - to Discuss - [ Is it Time to Allow Your Mouth to Accompany Your Brain on Extended Vacation ]
That guy is so negative. She crushed him (softly).
👌🌹🎶🍜
CHINA HAS JUST STARTED TO GROW AND RISE
Let us see 2 years down the road,hahaha
Michael, you’re worried about lack of innovation, then criticize the state for prioritizing science and technology. You realize how ironic this is?
It’s the STEM innovation that drives wealth. It’s AI, robotics, Telecommunications… hats important. And I had become a leader in some of those fields.
‘Frivolous’ innovations like TikTok may boost the stock markets, but does not lead to real technical innovations!
Depriving China off certain technologies will only force the Chinese to innovate and build their own tech. Good case in point, is HiaWei. They have become a world leader in 5G and launch their own high end mobile chip thtanpoetes its new phone. And they also developed their own IS to replace Android.
All this points to be notation despite the so called authoritarian regime.
OTOH look at the failures in USA, Thr hopelessness, the poor medical services, the failing race relations axtreme inequal distribution of wealth. Does this mean that the US democracy has failed?
HOGWASH 🤮
Once China welcome 🎉 Palestinian Refugees... China rises becoming World Superstar .... 😮❤😊
AIIB president's daughter
China does not have a youth unemployment problem. The government of the People's Republic has stopped publishing new figures recently in this regard because a lot of the younger people are now into the so called alternative careers - vlogging is one good example - and new study and research are needed in order to get a fuller picture.
Young people in China actually fare better than their counterparts in the West because of the Belt and Road Initiative which gives them an option to work abroad.
Lol - how much can you make vlogging? 20 RMB per week?
M8 harl is like middle school kid just repeating what he heard I. The western msm media. Embarrassing to watch h
I don't usa propaganda by the way abc lol
In China, the debt of Local Government Financing Vehicles：LGFV, an infrastructure investment company affiliated with local governments, is expanding. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it is expected to reach the 100 trillion yuan (approximately 2,000 trillion yen) mark by 2027. The burden of taking a free ride on the government's ``tacit guarantee'' and expanding debt is now at risk of erupting in the wake of the housing recession.
Needless to say, local government officials lack business sense, advanced investment ability to manage risk, and consulting ability.
The goal is to achieve the goals set by the top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party.
It is commonplace for private companies to bribe opportunistic officials.
And it's internal debt lol not line USA debt
Dr. Jins whole argument is hope. Not very scientific.
I'm quite disappointed after hearing Keyu Jin's argument. Does she really know what's going on in China now? Or, she's probably still living in a bubble....The unemployment rate in young generation is crazy high, what's the future for those young grads? If the young generation can't even find a job to unleash their creativity and productivity, I don't see a rosy future for this country. No one is talking about when China can overtake the US now in terms of GDP.... because China may never will.... So has China peaked? You tell me.
rather are you sure you are not the one living in a bubble? the claim of youth unemployment being an issue misses the fact that alot of the number that China count as unemployment would not have even counted as unemployment in the US, so China number are overly conservative compared to weatern countries. if we look at export, China export are declining yet their surplus continues to widen, why? because they have move from exporting low cost item, to high cost item like EVs. China already produce more chip than US does. 20% of the world market compared to 15%.
even Russia's decline actually benefit China as Russia being dependent on China can no longer say no to expanding Chinese influence in Central Asia. Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE has join BRICS+, solidifying middleeast pivot toward Asia. China has won over influence of Central Asia from Russia, and Middleeast from US... and Africa and latin American look likely to fall next... so rather than being isolated, China is actually becoming the center of global trade.
no one is talking abotu China overtaking US in GDP becuse GDP is a lie. how do you calculate GDP? in USD! and US can just print USD, and housing prices going up contribute to rise in GDP, but those are not real productivity, they are instead a drain on US businesses because it is raising their operation cost. this is the real reason why US cannot export it product in the world. US problems has nothing to do with China, it has to do with it overdependence of finance and fixed asset. if US print a trillion dollar a year, of course US will grow a trillion dollar a year, but that is not sustainable. because real wages has not gone up.
@@lagrangewei Is that the reason why no one is talking about China overtaking the US? Is that the reason why they stopping releasing unemployment data on younger generation? The new centre of global trade? .... Which planet are you living in?
Young people are picky when it comes to jobs service jobs that pay less are not picked
You really have no clue what you’re talking about . Western media just likes to exaggerate everything about China to make it look bad. Chinas youth u employment is by choice because they are all highly educated and don’t want to take blue collar jobs. Unlike where you are from, Chinese students aren’t saddled with insurmountable student loan debt , along with parents in China having large cash reserves. That is the difference . They can afford to be unemployed unlike where your from where all your youths are broke. Try to understand China more instead of just regurgitating western media . They have lost they’re credibility on China since they realized that China is the top dog in the world stage .
It's easy to pick on others and difficult to access themselves. After making fifty years of economic mistakes and delivered so much misery to the rest of the world, if the so-called wealthiest country in the world still prefers to choose on living in dreamland. Hope God can continue to blast you for another fifty years.
She isn’t an economist, she is a propagandist. Her arguments are about potential, not actual data or trends. She talks in absolutes rather than relatives. The whole discussion is poisoned by her insincerity.
Lol China has internal debt but USA has external debt funny guy
The USA can just print money to pay any debt because it's in her currency
Madam Jin......peaked means according to the aunty - China .....today sunny tomorrow's rainy and forever n ever....."BUT" they are useless they only knew that every rose has its thorn, they didn't expect that every thorns has a rose......
Dr Keyu is so fine
Total nonsense!