🗳️ Election Update: Will ANC fall below 50%? | Historical data and polls
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- Опубликовано: 31 май 2024
- In today’s episode, Dr Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh unpacks the historical data of elections in South Africa & what inferences we can project for this year's election.
📚 Today’s Episode Features:
1. ANC historical election performance
2. Opposition parties
3. Election polls
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_______
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:03:02 - ANC performance history
00:15:05 - Election polls
00:24:49 - What can change?
00:28:37 - Provincial data
_______
Credits:
Director: Bongani Nkosi
Producer: Oratile Kekana
Production Manager: Noluthando Mkhize
DOP and Editor: Bongani Nkosi
2nd camera operator and assistant editor: Lesego Kgobe
Photographer: Bongani Nkosi
Sound: Kgothatso Senne
Social Media Manager: Oratile Kekana
About me: Dr Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh is an author, scholar and founder of the Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh Xperience (SMWX), a digital, youth-centred current affairs platform. He holds a DPhil in International Relations from the University of Oxford and is a Lecturer in International Relations at Wits.
![[ICYMI] 'We won't work with ANC under Ramaphosa' - MK's Nhlamulo Ndhlela](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/n4V1UhuRfyY/mqdefault.jpg)
Let's give ANC their 30% pass rate
I like that. Count me in.
❤😂❤😂❤😂❤😂❤😂
That's a good one😂😂
Plus 30 minus 2
Yes please!
Young man, I left politics because of a lack of true academics like you. You a marvel to listen to and simplify issues for even a non academic to see... Long live Sizwe....
Clear speech
On 28 May South Africa will write the greatest IQ test ever written in SA .
I guess ur having special vote
😂😂😂
The only vote worth watching is Umngeni. We know Pappas has been a superstar for that metro. If good governance can't turn into votes, then the country will go downhill.
The IEC does break down voter count per metro, so let's see if better service delivery actually works.
You mean the last three elections weren't conclusive enough for you?
@@Truthseeker-iz3dj This is a provincial and national election. Umgeni isn't on the ballot. Seems you will be failing the 29 May IQ test.
What a humbled knowledgeable and well prepared young man ❤
How does he remain so calm and non-bias with all guest and stick to reality of the matter in place
I know it sounds extreme but I’am really convinced that the ANC will only get 38%!,and i really hope that!😅
It's not extreme...ANC will land between 30% and 39%...
Thats what i also see less than 40%
I agree. It already has polled that low but polling in SA is notoriously unreliable.
Im hoping less... but this will bring more possible instability with the rise of MK recently.
@@AndrewMcFarlane_1no instability, the MK actually galvanised a strong leftist configuration.
The ANC must just go, below 40% please people
Balance of forces has changed, the old people that has been keeping the ANC above the 50% range are unfortunately been recalled by God,
2029 they will be gone. But ANC still got ace under the sleeve. That ace will be grants. After that 2034 there won't be no money left for grants
Dats true
Sizwe , your voice, insightful and clear speech are really killing me son🤞
KZN, North West and GP are shaping up to be real kingmakers this election season
Your producer is going to be clean shaven for the rest of his life. 😂😂😂
Great analysis, as always. Thank you for your great work.
😂😂😂
🤣🤣😂
ANC below 40%
I don’t see ANC reaching 40%
I think you are the most informed analyst, I enjoy your channel. subbed.
Welcome aboard!
Rooting for you,Mr SMWX!! May you win your bet!! It will be a miracle,nonetheless. Thank you for impartibg your perceptive insights to us.
You are spot on 40% ANC
Western Cape is NOT 4 SALE, this is The Mother City of 🇿🇦South Africa💞
Is for PA
❤
PA is giving DA chest pains in western cape 😭
An Israel state in South Africa😂😂😂
@@pov-gx2ko for now. As soon Capetonians realize that PA is not different from ANC, 2029 DA will be back
The question is will the ANC go to bed with the EFF or the DA for a coalition government. 🤔
I don't mind who come to power as long as our rainbow nation would be strengthened, as BRICS member we also want to keep our business with all countries around the world and we just want to see peace around the world.
We just hope that bed is cleared of any beared hair.
DA
With EFF and or MK, sure we will be heading to the Zimbabwe path
Not EFF. Maybe DA because they belong to the same FUNDER. EFF IS GOING TO collide with MK.
This has now become a divide betweena xhosa and zulu and I love it. No longer will anc be the symbol for bantu leadership.
I hope your producer looks good without a beard.
Your father is a genius, MK loves you and your family. ANC will get 18%.
Plus 40
😂😂😂😂😂
What’s more hilarious is people thinking the elections are fair and transparent 😂. Cmon!
I am with you
I foresee tears and chest pains here.
.............And Heart attacks😅🤣😆🤣😂
And beard hair flying. @@user-ox1pv6nk3t
I just like how you break down everything most of us don't understand politically, thanks for your commitment.. you and your team are the best!!!
The ANC only have themselves to blame, they digging their own grave by being self serving.
I really hope EC catches a wake up, the DA was doing a good job there.
If the good job is felt on the ground and not only in the airwaves then it will translate to votes. But so far...
I wish they do but the reality is they won't. Beaten wife syndrome is real, Eastern Cape is the most hopeless of the ANC loyalists.
Eastern Cape residents are loyal ANC voters
@@caesar3909 🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂
Coalitions have been a mess in Nelson Mandela Bay. I really hope for a majority government and I pray its not the ANC.
You are doing a fantastic job lad 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
Thanks 🙏🏽
Interesting elections ahead, we'll have to embrace change and scent of fresh air for the benefit of our well being
The EFF alone was going to do a major blow on the ANC. Now with the advent of the MKP, things are really looking dire for the ANC. This is good, we need the ANC out of power as in yesterday but with most parties directionless and others immature, coalitions are not looking up unfortunately
Naa
I don’t see ANC reaching 40%
Replacing ANC with MK and or EFF, South Africans will be solving nothing.
Unfortunately , removing the ANC from power only to replace it with something worse is not a good thing.
The MK and EFF are taking votes from the ANC.
ANC voters don't seem to be moving to other opposition parties much.
@@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ubAgree. Imagine EFF combined with MKP got above 50% in a coalition. That would be a recipe for something worse than ANC
ANC is 100% going below 50% tell your producer he is under the influence of something.
He must tell him to start shaving
ANC will score between 42 and 46%
😂😂😂😂😂😂, I fully agree, and he's fast asleep under such influence. I hope he wakes up still under that influence after 29 May when he realise that anc got even below 40%, so he can convince himself that he is still in a better bad dream than this worst he's hallucinating 😅😅😅😅😅
I WISH they get 1%.
😂That's COPE😂😂😂😅
@@curiousk4083 I mean ANC. 🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@curiousk4083 I mean ANC party who let people drink water with donkies.
😂😂😂😂😂
They should get -1
Be strong only the brave r targetted💞
I think your beard is safe 🙂 and thanks for the amazing program , to you and your team
Thanks for watching! 🙏🏽
ANC will be lucky if they get 20%
If it's true. Then I'm truly proud of SA.
Most interesting episode Sizwe, big up. What an eye opener💚🖤💚
I really pray to see a video collaboration of you and Dan Coder, you both incredibly present SA politics well. Simple yet informative. Please make plan
It already happened-he came on the channel in December. Search our vids!
The ANC WILL fall! #FreeSouthAfrica!
Question of the year
Yep! 😂
At the moment the ANC will be lucky to cross the line with 30%
I think you are correct Sizwe, the ANC wll be bellow 50%.
Thank you very much. Great analysis. Can't wait for the next poll
I am with you producer. ANC will be at mid 50s
AnC will get less than 30% voter %.
I don't think these people understands how frustrated voters are. I also see ANC in the late 20ies. They must Ignore MK at their own parell
Always enjoy your insite, very informative!
I am with you Sizwe
And let's give them 30% the very % they give our school results they deserve that.
Politics getting really interesting in South Africa. Electoral Court sets aside IEC's Zuma's disqualification. In my little understanding of the law, Zuma had been wronged by the IEC - and justice has been served. But the man of the moment for the past few hours, days, weeks, and many past months - is Dali Mpofu
His the best lawyer in SA
He was not wronged lmao
Zuma never served his sentence and the ANC gave a get out of jail free card with tht remittance.
It's actually criminal how the courts have failed us in delivering justice to zuma and his cronies
@@zerog1037 Maybe you don't understand the Law Framework, he was not even supposed to have been sentenced, let alone going to jail before the parole, and later remission.
You cannot be charged with Contempt of Court for refusing to appear before a Commission. Do you need any further explanation beyond this? Collect all the recording of the court proceedings as presented by Adv Dali Mpofu - but also listen to other law practitioners, NOT political analysts.
@@profdapoet Your are joking right? Zuma, the Gupta lover, the nkandla raiser, the rapst, the arms dealer and the looter of state was not meant to be sentenced????? Wht a joke
@@profdapoet Not showing up to court is literally contempt of court. He only got out because of the remittance which cleaned his slate
I'm with you Sizwe❤
AYEYE! 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #SMWX
I feel for my home province EC. But fingers crossed DA keeps WC, IFP gets KZN and Gauteng has an outright majority as I feel it will get better delivery if there is one party that is responsible.
Gauteng will be Action SA coalition with IFP, FF+, UIM, PA and DA
Zuma must put most of MK resources in Mpumalanga and Gauteng. ACT must put all their eggs in Free State. DA must put most of its resources in eastern cape and northern cape. EFF must put most of its resources in Gauteng, Limpopo and NW. 6 provinces will be gone from ANC.
It does not matter who votes ... it only matters who counts the votes!
Very true indeed
I agree with your assessment
Good Job, brilliant
Great analysis, Sizwe. ❤❤❤
As always, sober and sound analysis Sizwe.
Yes
Interesting analysis.
Me after the election. 🧔🏽♂️
You said that, there was load shedding in 2012??
I didn't feel load shedding till 2022
North west and eastern cape are core ANC followers
Ace's factor would starve ANC in Free State
Nice analyse my brother what a talent
ANC has been nose diving like my beloved KAIZER CHIEFS FC difference's KAIZER CHIEFS FC will bounce back with a bang GOD WILLING 🙏🏾 VIVA MK 🇿🇦✊🏾✌🏾
😂
Nice summary of what we about to witness. It's scary that the ANC might lose power but that is all we are wishing for
You truly do reap what you sow.
Anything is possible
The analysis Sizwe Mpofu-Welsh makes, makes more sense than the opinion polls because of the empirical evidence this anaysis brings to the fore. Comparing the local elections with national and provincial elections is interesting especually for this upcoming elections. The empirical evidence as per this analysis among other things is that the ANC has increased its performance from any preceding local elections to the succeeding national and provincial elections. With the instability of coalitions in the metros where the ANC is not in control, one can expect the ANC to move up in the regions of those metro coalitions. The metros constitute 40% of the voting population in the country.
I wish it falls further below 30%
I wish they get 2 seats 😅
Below 30 will be good but with the emergence of MK and EFF, we will be fighting losing battle
No. 30% is a good spot for them to wakeup. At the end of the day we don't really have another party to lead us. DA is white lead, EFF and mk are too radical.
ANC is not as radical but still liberal enough to spark the change people want if not for their corruption
Hi Sizwe, your beard is safe, lol 😂 yes your graph's and analysis is spot on, I'm always so impressed with your predictions, but allow me to contribute to your analysis, I might make a diversion here, I was in kathelehong today, I stronghold of the ANC, I earn my money in that particular area for more than 20 years, my business depends on the people of Katorus, so I can speak with good authority about the dynamics of the part of Ekhuruleni, as I travel to a section of kathelehong today, the ANC have a constituency office where there is a hive of activity 7 day's a week, and by the way,they occupied the same office which was previously an ESKOM payment office, I don't know are you aware of the impact of the ANC in that part of the world, the people was passionate about the ANC, but to my surprise, it looks more than a mortuary than an offence, so I can assure you, your beard is safe, maybe you'll have your beard until it turns to Gray 😂😂 anyway as always thank you for your great show
Thanks for the analysis Sizwe. You should consider reaching out to Dawie Scholtz - he's done some interesting pre-election modelling in the past
Water , electricity, greencontracts to work on.long term tenders must be bolished
Due to the MK factor, I will give ANC 42.5%
You are correct
I predict the ANC will get 45 %
I pray that ANC gets 10%
Eisj bra I'd like to combine prayers and pray for jail time for all the ANC comrades
2% is all they deserve
@kopanokhumalo4344 I'd like to also combine prayers and hope they lock them up and throw away the keys
I think yes
I'm still reeling from the TRUTH wrt to madam Speaker of Parliament, ANC will have 2 work hard...
Thats very good news 😅
My mom and other people i know who have been lifetime ANC are now voting MK Party......Ziyakhala!!
KZN coalition between ANC and IFP! WC coalition between ANC and DA!Gauteng coalition ANC and DA!My prediction nationally for the ANC is 35%-38%!MK has already done the damage!
IFP has already signed a moonshot pact with DA that they will not work with ANC but the funny thing is John says they will work with ANC if they keep Ramaphosa as president 😂😂😂
@@nomfunekonosilela3895 That moonshot pact is not practical!Look at municipalities!
Ramaphosa must make coalition with DA. EFF and or MK will further decay this country
@@nomfunekonosilela3895why ramphosa. Thts a terrible proposition. Rhamposa made so many poor decisions and zuma is one of them
Mr Mpofu i put it to you, judge Mogoeng mogoeng is somewhere there at MK party structured.
Viva Mk ❤
Intshebe yakho i safe baba
Was wondering if you can do a show looking at the campaign strategy of political parties, and whether it is a good strategy (looking at what has happened across the world, and in history).
I know you’ve touched a bit on the ANC’s campaign strategy of looking at the past 30 years rather than the immediate past, but interested also in what other political parties strategy is and how effective you believe they’ll be.
For example the DA with its fear-mongering, why did they choose such a strategy, do you believe it will work and appeal to their base?
Contrast that to the FF+ campaign strategy which is a hopeful campaign with a messaging of let’s rebuild SA together.
Thank you for a good analysis.
MK under Zuma will get 75% nationally.
Never never dey got the IEC in their pocket.
Mark my words.
Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results.
I am with Oratilwe
ActionSA let's fix South Africa 🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦 no scandals no rape cases no Corruption scandals let's bring change together 💚💚💚🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦
Hmmmm 2024 election year.
I think you will win the bet. ANC will go below 50%
I have the ANC between 38 and 42.... MK is definitely a game changer.
Starting to seem plausible, as it stands.
Anyone with the country's interest at heart will never vote for ANC
Live chat gives politicians a quick birds eye view as 2 what the people are stirring up, then they should be able 2 douse fires way b4 electioneering 💞
Lett the past 30 years of the ANC missgoverning and destoying this beautifull country be the sad and expensive lesson for everybody. Therefore, the zero percentage for them would be a blessing for this country.
This disaster was 30 years ago easy predictable, but who would be willing to believe it then?
MK will hit upper of 60%.... thanks to the ANC taking the MK to court and losing every case against the MK... granting the MK free positive marketing 😅
Nomakanjani, they go under
Ayeye...I go with thy producer😅
My fear right now is ANC making coalition with the EFF 🤢!
You gave us the best and practical analysis and unfortunately your producer will have to cut his beard😂😂😂 ....as we wait For the last poll from epsos because it is very evident that ANC will heavily go under 50% and it will be playing around 38% to 42% highest just with the emergence of Mk
Great analysis but technically on the graph the ANC does always do better in the following national election after a local election, it's very small but the next blue point is always above the red point.
It's not statistically significant but just a correction.
I do agree that I do not seeing it happen this time
It’s time our corrupters go join the Guptas in Dubai. Birds of a feather flock together. The poor is getting more poor. The ANC MUST GO.
Mxm
Ramaphoria, SMW ;)
Interesting analysis Sizwe. Just looking at the Western Cape and the DA demise. This is before the DA position on Gaza and the potential loss of its Muslim support and colored vote comes into effect #2024. my then biggest question is "At National level, where is the DA getting this so called 13 -20%"
No analyst has given a breakdown of demographic votes showing the DA strongholds and voter district patterns that mitigate this hallucination.
Perhaps you can break it down for us.
Honestly, i only see 9-13% (The failing Steenhuisen project)