"A Random Variable is NOT Random and NOT a Variable"

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  • Опубликовано: 15 окт 2024

Комментарии • 108

  • @ilikehandsprings
    @ilikehandsprings 3 дня назад +15

    What a wonderfully clear and precise presentation! It cleared up several doubts, especially the distinction between a probability mass function and a random variable.
    Would be interested to see an example of a more complex problem that’s more easily solved through random variables than by probability mass function.
    (Incidentally - is the converse ever true, i.e. is there a problem that’s more easily solved using probability mass function rather than the random variable? Assuming that the random variable is known.)

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад

      Some of my earlier Summer of Math Exposition videos show problems with tricky ways to manipulate the random variables to get the answer: The ABRACADABRA theorem ruclips.net/video/t8xqMxlZz9Y/видео.html and there is another about estimating Pi with spaghetti ruclips.net/video/e-RUyCs9B08/видео.html . For many "standard" problems, using the probability distribution is the most straightforward way to go, which is why this is the main way people are taught about random variables.

  • @coreyyanofsky
    @coreyyanofsky 4 дня назад +135

    Student: What's a Dr. Pepper?
    Me: Well for starters it is not a doctor and it's not a pepper.

  • @Bodge18
    @Bodge18 3 дня назад +29

    In physics we have: "What is particle spin?"
    "Well imagine a ball is spinning, except it's not a ball and it's not spinning"

  • @Chris-yw5is
    @Chris-yw5is 4 дня назад +36

    I study maths but always avoided statistics but this video actually got me interested in learning more

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад +11

      I had a similar experience! I was scared away by early courses, and didn't get into it until my PhD. The problem is really that statistics is too useful so there are lots of sources that try to make it accessible and end up hiding the details!

    • @MagicGonads
      @MagicGonads 3 дня назад

      @@MihaiNicaMath engineers ruin everything

    • @victorh2056
      @victorh2056 3 дня назад +1

      Prob theory and stats overall are very cool areas! It can be shady sometimes because it'll be "simplified" and it could make you feel like things are just happening sometimes. After intro to prob, this happens less and less, making these areas more and more fun!
      It's a lot of function theory which great!

    • @adam_jri
      @adam_jri 3 дня назад +3

      I was first introduced to statistics in high school and it was incredibly boring. In uni I really enjoyed probability theory, it’s a different beast. Maybe it’s just me but getting to see the underlying mathematical machinery is really cool. You learn things like the difference between impossible and probability 0, the fact that there are many different types of convergence with different implications, and of course the Central Limit Theorem.

    • @victorh2056
      @victorh2056 3 дня назад

      @@adam_jri dude that's so awesome that you enjoyed prob theory in uni! It only ever gets better! If you had fun with prob and enjoy applications as well, stats can be quite a lot of fun! And handy!

  • @gffhvfhjvf4959
    @gffhvfhjvf4959 3 дня назад +9

    This is masterul. I'm starting stochastics and always get confused about what domain the variables are in etc. Best vid so far

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад +3

      A surprising amount of reading math is constantly asking yourself: "wait what type of thing is this?". If you can keep all the domains/ranges/functions straight you are halfway there!

  • @frankieolmsted8448
    @frankieolmsted8448 3 дня назад +8

    I've been waiting for this video for a long time. I've long understood random variables at a surface level, and I've even used them to model things, but I've never had a good, solid understanding of what they are as mathematical objects. This video does what no statistics textbook or professor has done for me; namely, to give random variables a solid base for building intuition on. And the treating of them as deterministic functions on random inputs also helps me a lot.
    The description of the distinction between probability distribution and random variable was similarly helpful. I've long understood most of the consequences of saying "X is a Normally distributed Random Variable": it means I can calculate probabilities of X taking values between certain ranges based on the definite integration of a well-understood function. But now I think I understand what it _means_; namely, that X is a function which assigns a value to events. Perhaps events are pencils and the function the weight of the pencil. Then, if I understand the terminology, the probability distribution (which is a normal distribution) lets me measure the portion of the events where pencils take weights between some values I select.
    Wonderful video, and thank you for it!

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад

      Thanks so much for the kind words, I'm glad you liked the video! Another fun example I've heard: go to the library and look at the first book someone walks out with. The probability space is the set of all possible books, and you can make many random variables: how many pages is this book? How much does it weigh? What color is it?

    • @nizogos
      @nizogos 3 дня назад

      If you're interested in the more robust formulation of random variables you could read about probability using measure theory, you'll get a few interesting insights which this video describes.

  • @dogmaticka
    @dogmaticka День назад +3

    Holy hell u made me realised why some prob classes touch upon measure cause a random variale is a measure

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  День назад +1

      It totally insane to me that it's possible to take a measure theory class but not mention the connection to probability. (My first measure theory class was like this! I thought I hated measure theory!!!!)

  • @boium.
    @boium. 3 дня назад +10

    1:35 "You should think of them as 16 different atoms."
    The funny thing is that is agrees with the technical definition of an atom. It's a singleton set with nonzero measure. In this case, for any x in our Omega, we have mu({x}) = 1/16.

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад +8

      It's not a coincidence! I'm well aware of what an atom means in probability :)

  • @bubbaliburtee8657
    @bubbaliburtee8657 4 дня назад +19

    My cousin in Romania is a vampire I'm pretty sure

  • @ruroruro
    @ruroruro 3 дня назад +6

    Student: What's a X Y?
    Me: Well for starters it's not an X and it's not a Y.
    Substitute X Y for: Random Variable, Big Bang, Halting Problem, Neural Network, Elliptic Curve, Fundamental (theorem of) Algebra.
    Naming things is hard...

  • @quantumgaming9180
    @quantumgaming9180 3 дня назад

    Iti multumesc. Este chiar singura mea problema care m-a intepa cand invatam la probabilitati

  • @adam_jri
    @adam_jri 3 дня назад +6

    1:05 isn’t a probability space the triplet (omega, sigma, P) with sigma being the sigma field and P being the measure? I’ve always heard omega called the fundamental set.

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад +4

      Yes: in general what you said is correct. For discrete spaces with finitely many elements, you can just make sigma all the subsets so it's "trivial" in some sense, and Omega, P is all you need

  • @PoolWaterPiano
    @PoolWaterPiano 3 дня назад +6

    Thank you for the title of the evideo. Finally someone spoke THE TRUTH.

  • @Daniel_Zhu_a6f
    @Daniel_Zhu_a6f 3 дня назад +1

    yes, that's one of the most insane things in most statistical textbooks (they also confuse models with fitted models, samples and groups, etc).
    imo, the only way one can understand statistics is through programming, bc you can see how these abstract concepts map to operations on real data (and there are a few textbooks that do this)

  • @Interstellar7093
    @Interstellar7093 2 дня назад

    The best explanation I’ve come across so far

  • @adityakhanna113
    @adityakhanna113 День назад

    Oh that's pretty cool. I am working on a video about looking at discrete distributions like vectors and doing projections on them. I was confused about RVs and PDFs in that contexts and this gives a good foundation to think about them

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  День назад

      That sounds cool! Doing a projection must be equivalent to a kind of conditional expectation. Although I'm not sure of the details!

  • @ldov6373
    @ldov6373 4 дня назад +3

    very well done explainer, thank you

  • @bransoncamp192
    @bransoncamp192 3 дня назад

    Taking statistical estimation of dynamical systems this really helped!

  • @Studio_salesmen
    @Studio_salesmen День назад

    “Is a function a variable? Not really.”
    The lambda calculus: bet.

  • @ZizexTheGod
    @ZizexTheGod 3 дня назад +1

    Wow this was a neat explanation

  • @tempusername-l5d
    @tempusername-l5d 12 часов назад

    This is a good video to understand what s random variable is, and how the random aspect applies to the outcome of events, not necessarily a random number.
    However, this makes me question what random even means in math.
    Also, Why can functions act as variables but are not variables? I guess the underlying question is what is a variable to begin with.

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  11 часов назад

      @@tempusername-l5d Typically, a variable is a fixed (but unknown) quantity, like x in the equation 2x+5=7. You can apply operations to it to e.g. solve for x to get x=1. The point is that a random variable is not like that but all the operations still work, so you can use them like you use variable. E.g. if you want the event that {2X+5=7} this is the same as the event {X=1}.

  • @pinguin3729
    @pinguin3729 2 дня назад

    Love this video!! Awesome stuff

  • @lucasm4299
    @lucasm4299 2 дня назад +1

    We assign a probability to each point in the sample space Omega? How do we make sure that the sum of the sample space equals 1?

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  2 дня назад

      As long as they are all positive, you can always divide by the total!

  • @FranzBiscuit
    @FranzBiscuit 3 дня назад

    Interesting angle! Thanks for sharing. **SUBSCRIBED**

  • @vyom_1729
    @vyom_1729 3 дня назад +1

    Could you suggest some good books for advanced probability theory with number theory connections??

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад

      I like the books "a first look at rigour probability" by Rosenthal and "probability with martingales" by Williams (featured in my other video: ruclips.net/video/t8xqMxlZz9Y/видео.html )

    • @vyom_1729
      @vyom_1729 3 дня назад

      @@MihaiNicaMath Thanks a lot..

  • @toufeeqsiddique7520
    @toufeeqsiddique7520 День назад

    Which software did you use for this animation sir?

  • @hereisdamm
    @hereisdamm 4 дня назад +2

    great video!

  • @444haluk
    @444haluk 3 дня назад +22

    It is a "chance function", "random variable" is a mistranslation from French.

    • @victorscarpes
      @victorscarpes 3 дня назад +1

      How is it in the original french?

    • @NC-hu6xd
      @NC-hu6xd 2 дня назад +2

      ​@@victorscarpesit's random variable, not sure what he meant

    • @nobody08088
      @nobody08088 2 дня назад +1

      @@NC-hu6xdmaybe a difference between the direct translation and the actual meaning?

    • @NC-hu6xd
      @NC-hu6xd День назад +2

      @@nobody08088 The french is "variable aléatoire" which directly translates to random variable. I dont understand his comment nor the 20 upvotes

  • @deltamico
    @deltamico 3 дня назад +1

    I understood the interpretation of them is different but could you say a probability distribution is a special case of a random variable?

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад +1

      I think it's misleading to say it's a special case. Two things I would say:
      1. Every RV *has* a probability distribution. (Described in video)
      2. Given a probability distribution, you can create an RV that has that distribution. (Set \Omega to be the set of values it takes with P(\omega) given, and then make Z(\omega)=\omega). This is sometimes called the "canonical" match between an RV and a distribution. I didn't mention this in the video!

  • @elunedssong8909
    @elunedssong8909 3 дня назад

    Love the video, but now you've got me thinking.
    If i roll a die with 4 sides, but each of these 4 sides does not have a value quite yet. Each of the sides, rolls a 4 sided die to determine their values. But wait, those 4 sides don't have a value quite yet...
    Let Z be the average value of this dice roll. Is Z now an actually random variable? 🤔Can we even calculate E(Z)? I think E(Z)= 4 times E( A normal 4 sided die), but im curious on your reasoning for how we can still call this Z non-random.

    • @BryanLu0
      @BryanLu0 3 дня назад +2

      Each side has a value of E(4 sided die)
      E(Z) = 4 * 1/4 * E(4 sided die)
      4 sides * probablity of a side * value of the side
      To understand this simply, to determine the result of rolling the die, roll a 4 sided die to determine what is on the face. But that happens no matter what you roll on the original die

    • @elunedssong8909
      @elunedssong8909 3 дня назад

      ​@@BryanLu0 You're right. Each die face would tend to the E(Z) so then the total value would tend towards E(Z). Not 4 times E(Z). Thanks for the correction!
      Unrelated to your comment, because I was thinking about the problem again:
      Here is a different example to illustrate the point.
      At first have the normal 4 sided die with the middle two numbes becoming negative.
      . Each recursive new die does this to the faces currently on the die before it: Multiply by a random real number, from 1->infinity.
      Random number=5
      So 1,2,3,4 become 5,-10,-15,20
      Repeat again. lets say 10
      50,-100,-150,200
      etc.
      Now when it does get back up to the original dice, the one we actually care about, what will the E(Z) be?
      It will be 0.
      Yet is Z a RV. that isn't a RV. or is it? Are these "R.Vs" _random_ or not?
      Which im not sure is or isn't "random".
      I think it still isn't really random. But it also kind of feels like any such dice are actually random. Because Z can be end up being anything, even without infinite recursion. Though, then the definition of "choose a random number" gets called into question. How does one choose from 1->infinity?
      Idk, but as a thought expirement, i'm curious what the counter-claim would be such that this "Z" is actually essentially determinant.

    • @BryanLu0
      @BryanLu0 3 дня назад

      @@elunedssong8909 E(Z) = 0 doesn't mean Z is determinant/not RV. E.g. E(normal distribution) = 0

  • @smudgerdave1141
    @smudgerdave1141 2 дня назад +2

    OK, in terms of computer programming, it's not a constant, ergo it is a variable and it varies in an apparently chaotic way, ergo it is random. I call it a random variable and I call clickbait.

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  2 дня назад +2

      Much like x=x+1 means something different in programming and in math, so too do the words "variable". This video is about the math definition of random variable! (And if course the interpretation as "these numbers are random" is used a lot in computer programming!)

    • @smudgerdave1141
      @smudgerdave1141 2 дня назад +1

      @@MihaiNicaMath I know, but I am not a mathematician - and you managed to nerd-snipe me into watching for a bit - until I realised this was not going to be about coding. Doh! Anyhoo, you got plenty of great feedback from people who came here for the math. 🙂

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  2 дня назад

      @@smudgerdave1141 Thanks for the feedback! If you like randomness in computer programming, you might like my earlier video about using a GPU to estimate Pi by simulating a bunch of noodles ruclips.net/video/po_pmPrO2YY/видео.html

  • @davidjohnston4240
    @davidjohnston4240 3 дня назад +4

    What's so hard about saying "It's a randomly generated variate from a computable distribution" or it's "a number with a computable surprisal".

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад +5

      Indeed, it's easy to say that, and that's pretty close to the "it's a random number" idea that is a good 1st level understanding of what an RV is. It's just that this is NOT the mathematical definition of an RV. The video has the details!

    • @davidjohnston4240
      @davidjohnston4240 3 дня назад +2

      ​@@MihaiNicaMathSince I have had a long career designing RNGs and trying to bridge the gap between formalism and physical design for nondeterministic behaviour in the RNGs I think of the randomness coming part from ignorance of state (HILL entropy) and from quantum uncertainty in the generation of bits) so in that perspective the randomness appears at a well defined point. The distribution comes from analysis of the source and post processing.

  • @luchesartomov
    @luchesartomov 2 дня назад

    Good video, sir

  • @severoon
    @severoon 2 дня назад +1

    Why does everyone keep saying "dice" as the singular lately? This isn't just you, it seems to be everywhere suddenly. What's going on? Did the singular "die" get replaced with the plural or something?

    • @mirandamanga9083
      @mirandamanga9083 2 дня назад

      Guess it’s easier to say and also it’s close to death.

    • @tommyphillips1030
      @tommyphillips1030 2 дня назад

      In the UK people (including old people) generally say dice. So I don't think it's a recent change. Although people do say "the die is cast", but most people don't actually know what it is referring to xD

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  2 дня назад

      It's even worse than that, back in my day they would say "alea iacta est"! Kids these days....

    • @severoon
      @severoon 2 дня назад

      @@tommyphillips1030 Oh interesting. I always thought "the die is cast" referred to the process of die casting, like pouring molten metal into a form until it sets.
      It seems you're right, though, it means throwing a die. That doesn't seem very final to me, though. Just pick it up and throw it again?

    • @PaulOReilly-pj3wq
      @PaulOReilly-pj3wq День назад

      @@severoonI believe it’s referring to games of old where you would wager for example your cow or pig or firstborn child on the outcome of a cast of a die, please correct me if I’m wrong

  • @ChrisContin
    @ChrisContin 3 дня назад

    Use the mean-average, which if carefully maintained can approximate any random input. I'm triggered by "random is real"!

  • @whatitmeans
    @whatitmeans 2 дня назад

    what happens with quantum mechanics? there RVs are really random I think

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  2 дня назад +2

      It's the same thing actually! In classical mechanics, randomness comes from your lack of knowledge of the exact state, so the probability space can be thought of as being over the set of classical states. In quantum mechanics, the state alone is not enough to determine the outcome, so the probability space is larger than just the state space. But the fact that the random variable is a function on the probability space is the same in both!

  • @cchulinn
    @cchulinn 3 дня назад

    Not to forget parallel universes, which in reality are not parallel, and not universes either! As found out by the great scientist D. Adams.

  • @path2source
    @path2source 2 дня назад

    I admire the effort. But I’m skeptical what purpose this simplification serves. People who would follow this simplification are most likely people who can think of random variables in the measure theoretic sense.

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  2 дня назад

      Do you just mean because the probability space has finitely many point (as opposed to being an arbitrary set/measure)? My feeling is its easier and helpful for undergraduate students to first understand the sinpler case before moving onto the general case

    • @path2source
      @path2source 2 дня назад

      @@MihaiNicaMath Maybe it's just me. But I think the idea of a random variable as a function only feels natural once you can appreciate the requirement that the function be measurable. And to appreciate the requirement, we need to appreciate what a probability triple is. In my opinion, once you skip over the "technical details" of sigma algebras and probability measures, the idea of random variable as a function invites complication without the reward of greater sophistication and generalization.
      With this video, those who would understand the measure theoretic definition may feel that something is missing. And those who would never understand the measure theoretic definition probably just got more confused. But I must admit I have grown rather cynical about most people's capacity for abstract thinking.

  • @victorzurkowski2388
    @victorzurkowski2388 3 дня назад

    Why is it that (expected value of a sum) = sum (expected values).....?

    • @MagicGonads
      @MagicGonads 3 дня назад

      @@victorzurkowski2388 it was proven in the video (for the finite and discrete case)

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад +2

      A couple things:
      1. "Disjoint" and "independent" sound similar but actually mean completely different things. Don't mix them up!
      2. The proof works whenever Z=X_1+X_2...you don't need any other conditions or independence of anything else. All you have to do is rearrange the sum in the definition of E(X). (For non-discrete distributions it's still true but proof is slightly more complicated!)

    • @MagicGonads
      @MagicGonads 3 дня назад

      @@MihaiNicaMath it's also not true in the infinite (but still discrete) case, unless you come up with a canonical order for the summands (if it diverges, you have Riemann rearrangement theorem to deal with, and yet these scenarios may appear when doing game theory thought experiements)

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад +2

      @@MagicGonads yes, in the infinite case you need an extra condition on the finiteness of the expected value!

    • @Darkev77
      @Darkev77 3 дня назад

      @@MihaiNicaMath you are very correct

  • @matteogirelli1023
    @matteogirelli1023 2 дня назад

    It's a function.

  • @AdrianBoyko
    @AdrianBoyko 2 дня назад

    What in math *IS* a variable? Seems to me that all names are immutably bound to some mathematical object.

    • @tommyphillips1030
      @tommyphillips1030 2 дня назад +1

      Unbound variable: an arbitrary symbol/name in a mathematical expression. This expression can be evaluated with the variable bound to a specific mathematical object (eg. a Real Number).
      For any unbound variable, it is usually implicitly understood that is can only be bound to mathematical objects of some specific type T, and only operations thats make sense on objects of type T can be performed on the unbound variable.
      Around 11:15 when he says you can "use it is a variable", I think he means you can use it as a variable of type Real Number.

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  2 дня назад

      Yes exactly! So like even though Z is a function (and it's incorrect to say it has a particular value), you can do any operation that you can do on real numbers to it.

  • @JoseGonzalezUwU
    @JoseGonzalezUwU 4 часа назад

    interesante

  • @SunnySunflowerSeed
    @SunnySunflowerSeed 3 дня назад +2

    my hyperborean ancestors studied mathematics too

  • @GrouchierThanThou
    @GrouchierThanThou 2 дня назад

    Very good video, but you're use of the words x-axis and y-axis is incorrect imho. They're only an x-axis and a y-axis if the variables on them are x and y respectively. If you put events and probabilities on them then you should call them the event axis and the probability axis. Or you can refer to their visual orientation and call them the horizontal axis and the vertical axis.

  • @2023ZABA
    @2023ZABA 4 дня назад

    WHAT

  • @malvoliosf
    @malvoliosf 3 дня назад

    The singular of “dice” is “die”.

    • @deltamico
      @deltamico 3 дня назад

      yet it's not less clear since in the case of saying "die" it sounds the same as "die" or "dye"

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад

      I agree: I decided years ago it's always clearer to say "dice"!

    • @malvoliosf
      @malvoliosf 3 дня назад +1

      @@MihaiNicaMath Well, you know the old expression: “Never say die!”

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад

      ​@@malvoliosf Haha yes exactly!

  • @Lolwutdesu9000
    @Lolwutdesu9000 3 дня назад

    This is needlessly splitting hairs over terms that ultimately makes no difference to our approach. Does Z change? Yes. What is a variable? Something that changes (randomly or otherwise). So Z is a variable. It doesn't matter whether we can also interpret it as something else. Is a dog an animal or a mammal? Exactly.
    As for the random part, we could have simply said that it can be random, but it can also not be random.
    End of video.

    • @MihaiNicaMath
      @MihaiNicaMath  3 дня назад +3

      Well the actual point of the video is to give a mathematical definition of a random variable so we can do math and understand the last 100 years of literature on the subject :) I'm sorry it was so upsetting for you

    • @MagicGonads
      @MagicGonads 3 дня назад +4

      "Does Z change? Yes."
      No! You can have many different samples of Z, but Z itself is fixed. That was the point of the video.
      The machinery is general enough that you can do probability without necessarily involving a 'time' aspect.

    • @lucasm4299
      @lucasm4299 2 дня назад +1

      @Lolwut You have low understanding and appreciation of the foundations of probability theory based on your terse “explanation”. I would not go with you if I needed help proving a theorem

    • @lucasm4299
      @lucasm4299 2 дня назад

      And you clearly didn’t watch the end of the video where he shows how one approach easily got the expectation of the binomial distribution while the other approach was more tedious. There are different approaches all based on solid mathematical theory. Rigor is vital

  • @BidensHusband
    @BidensHusband 2 дня назад +1

    And a continuous random variable isn't always continuous.