How Elections Damage the Economy
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- Опубликовано: 6 окт 2024
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2024 is set to be the biggest election year ever, with nearly half the world's population heading to the polls! While democracy is generally a good thing, elections can create turmoil in economies, adding uncertainty to everything from trade to taxes. In this video, we dive into how elections can disrupt national economies, the real costs of political uncertainty, and whether we can minimize these economic disturbances for smoother transitions of power.
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Mate you forgot the UK in your map of 2024 elections
My first job after leaving the military was industrial paper sales. It was ‘92 and one of my customers was too nervous about the election to place his regular restock order. He ran a metal working shop with over a dozen employees. His restock needs were a couple hundred dollars including a case of toilet paper for the restrooms. It was three weeks until the election, and this guy was so worried about Bill Clinton, he didn’t order TP even after I pointed out that no matter who won, he was going to need TP the next day.
Elections are actually problematic, but of course, not having them is more problematic.
So it seems that on periods of crisis people either buy no TP or buy all there is 😂
@@_ata_3 You win the internet! 😂🤣😂
I have so many questions... Was there a concern that Bill Clinton was so hard-line he would ban pooing in the workplace? Or like, if he was worried that he would tank the economy so bad his business would shut down the very next day - he could have just taken the toilet paper home, I imagine it's wholesale priced and would last him a good while. Also what is David Brent like in real life?
@@frankcooke1692 It is thought provoking, isn’t it?
That example is to the point of election uncertainty causing anxiety disorders.
Scheduled elections are bad, but without them there is a chaotic struggle for power, which looks stable from the outside, but once there is a major shift, the consequences are tenfold worse than combined effect of elections.
Communism has a way to deal with the opposition, just see history.
One thing I dont think your channel gets enough credit for, is your humor, your Uzbekistan line coupled with the clip of the politicians in an all out brawl had me 😂😂😂, keep up the great work!
As someone who is from Uzbekistan it caught me off guard.
@@sapoepsilonThe same😂
Same here
Same
Where is the footage from? I assume it is not Uzbekistan. Also, is there actually going to be any real competition to Mirziyoyev this year?
No way you made a Jeb bush reference at the end. Hahaha
You caught that too! haha
what did he say?
@@liquidrime "please clap"
😄
Gracie Lawrence also says it at the end of the song Freckles (Acoustic) (here on YT).
4:10 Argentina is a country where everything changes in a week, and yet nothing changes in a decade 🧉
Not only Argentina. The whole Latin America. Cheers from Brasil!
Not now 🐍
Is this chaos?
Argentina is a country that wants to live above its mean and they swear to die on that hill. They want to relive the economic miracle form almost 100 years ago and they all believe to be east European so they're entitled to the same standard of live.
Do “are people bad for economies” next
"people are going to ruin the tour"
And "Are human rights bad for the economy?"
Put democracy on the Economics Explained leaderboard
That would screw over non-democratic nations with otherwise strong economies.
"please clap" had me in stitches, bravo
The problem is not elections but the two party system. In Switzerland we have a continuous history of a coalition government including all major parties for around 150 years, we basically don't have an opposition party. Elections here don't result in drastic changes, but rather slightly correct the course a bit. Also we have a system of direct democracy alongside the representative one, which is the superior form of democracy in my opinion.
Bahaha a dying nation
How much does private money from both wealthy individuals and large businesses influence your elections?
The major issue for that, as well, is how the US runs on "first past the poll" system, which cements a two party system. If every state was done by proportion instead of all-or-nothing elections, it might look a bit different.
Multi-party parliamentary democracies have lots of failure modes too. For example, sometimes small parties wield an extreme amount of power due to their ability to tip the scale in either direction.
US car manufacturing still hasn’t recovered from their protectionism against Japanese cars. They’re still rubbish quality with regular recalls and maintenance issues
Don't you know it. I've been really frustrated with the US's BYD flu. I'd totally buy one if we could get them for a decent price over here.
And most people who remember the 80s think that Japan was causing the problem. 🌏
Supporting the local market falls on your hands too and not just your politicians and the top investors. You shop with your vote.
Our banking system is each one of us. and it takes each one of us not being a predator lender to our local market. This falls on each one of us. Its our responsibility to not be a predator lender.
One cannot go to a not-for-profit banking system to borrow money to buy a car and home, and at the same time take your retirement to a for-profit banking system to lend for profit. This is banking fraud.
I require a not-for-profit banking system to support my local market. Where can I vote to make this happen.
It will take a not-for-profit banking system to get me out of the rent trap.
Japan fitted almost all their cars with shotguns instead of airbags.
toyota recalling 100,000s engines, what happened to their quality should be researched
ill take the cost of an election over the cost of authoritarianism any day
If only they were mutually exclusive
Or you can chose a effective monarchy
@@Hasanaljadid As thai you cannot choose monarchy let's alone effective one 😪
@@Hasanaljadid The problem is you don't get to 'chose' an effective monarchy. You get what you get, and you have to hope that they're good.
Now, I'd argue that monarchs are better on average than representatives chosen by democracies, because if nothing else the monarch has an incentive to keep their country strong, because they are the state. But, the long reign of an utterly incompetent monarch can do so much damage to a country that it can undo all the progress made by the previous competent monarchs.
I'd take Singapore's model over America's model every single day
For anyone interested in getting deeper on the topic, I'd highly recommend Hoppe's Democracy the G-d that Failed. Really unique and interesting perspective on the incentives created by democracy and their impacts on the economy.
"Hoppe's Democracy the G-d that Failed"
But is his anarchy-based alternative better? Must check current examples like Somalia, Afghanistan…
3:40 Arasaka? Haha great vid keep it up EE
I'm glad I'm not the only one who caught that 🤣
The UK had an election this year. You forgot to add it to the map at the beginning.
Huge Election as well!!
Honestly, the world didn’t notice.
3rd world countries don’t count
3rd world countries don’t count
The UK is not real
Thanks for sharing. IT IS TRUE CANDIDATES WILL PROMISE A LOT. For Example in 2007 I started a campaign for a city council seat and I was "coached" to mention saving the library and making it more accessible. Well LO AND BEHOLD the city council members had NO (NADA NOTHING) impact or control over the local library but, my "campaign consultant" told me to promote that I was going to "Save" the library. This along with a few other realizations i learned made me cease my campaign and join the proverbial peanut gallery. Since that time over five candidates have repeated the same claim they can "SAVE" the library in their campaign runs. So, Yes, candidates can say whatever they want whether its true or factual is up to the voter to find out. Side Note: I also returned donations to my campaign to people because I understood how that money could do better in their pocket than some regional political party coffer
Arasaka logo noted and apresciated.
In the USA, it’s good for the Post Office at least. Lots of political mail.
And 3am mail in ballots 😂
@@chiquita683 well at least you thought you were clever
Tell me about it, I live in a swing state. It's nuts.
As someone who is an industrial manufacturers rep in Michigan the simple answer is yes.
The Jeb Bush quote at the end 😂
lol! The please clap reference at the end got me.
Funny enough i had to write the answer to the same question in my political science exam.
Never have i ever been this early to an economics video before
One of you best videos lately.
Election years? Kinda like Black Friday for the economy, everyone's on edge, cash is everywhere, and who knows if the deals are any good.
The best option is always the Enlightened Despot. But it’s so hard to find one, we better off with Democracy.
Even enlightened despot loses his way after a while. That’s why most democracies have term limits
@@chefnyc An old saying I like: "Politicians are like diapers. You have to change them often for the same reason"
Oh you forgot Japan and the UK in the first graphic
I think the most hopeful thing I've seen in terms of elections and economies was how Mexico handled the NAFTA2 negotiations. Pena Nieto had already lost the election and AMLO gave full support for whatever term came out of negotiations so that it wouldn't be delayed or counteracted. This was really good for everyone involved. Imagine if McCain and Obama could have given Bush that level of support to handle the banking issue at that time of transition.
LOL Made me spit my coffee out with that a Jeb Bush reference at the end.
Perhaps another angle is the effect of the short-term economics of elections. Consumers may be giving donations to various campaigns during an election season, money they otherwise would have spent or invested. Jobs associated with campaigns will suddenly appear but disappear after election day. The question being how do these factors affect the economy overall?
Excellent video as always but it fell victim to being outdated (says employment is down in the US but September job growth was unexpectedly strong)
Also. Unemployment is low by historical standard. You can't hire more people when there are few good workers left on the market.
They have revised every other month down later, why would this month be any different. The revised 2023 down 850k jobs in mid 2024, they are willing to lie to win an election
The fact there are no advanced economies without FREE (maybe not FAIR [see Singapore]) elections says something.
Singapore, as a city-state, hardly counts.
I think here, you need to look at history. It´s a bit of a question of chicken and egg, do you get advanced economies when you have democracy, or democracy when you have advanced economies?
If you look at most of Europe during their industrialisation, very few places were really democracies, i.e Bismarck´s Germany wasn´t really a democracy, nor was the Austro-Hungarian Empire, nor was France until 1871. What they did do was develop institutions that worked to regulate the economy, an economic model that worked reasonably well, etc, and eventually had a reasonably educated public.
Also, people often begin to care about democracy more, once their basic needs are met. That was very much the case in South Korea which only became a democracy from 1988 onwards and actually managed to become a pretty successful one (with as many flaws as many other Western democracies).
Democracy tends to do badly when people feel it isn´t providing results for them, i.e that was true in Weimar Germany, it was also true with Russia under Yeltsin, whatever can be criticised about Putin, he did manage to restore order and provide some economic growth and he gained a lot of respect for that.
The election of Trump was a sign of great discontent in the US with how things are and unless a lot of the problems are solved, people like him will continue to attract a large amount of the vote.
@@Minimmalmythicist Politicians are a product of society. The people can't avoid blame for being part of the problem, and solving stupid takes a generation. The fact MAGA-types keep voting for the party who expands the wealth gap by design is their problem.
0:30 is the bolivian congress, not Uzbekistan
"...this issue becomes especially bigly... nice!
elections meaning democracy.Democracy is of no use if the population is not knowledgeable about administration and how to do best for themselves
In the UK, Labour's landslide win in July spurred some analysts to say that the UK would suddenly enjoy a rush of investment, since there was more political certainty ahead after years of instability (Brexit, Covid, inflation spike since 2022). Perhaps that was good for the economy, but might have been dampened by the upcoming 30 October budget (predicted tax rises driving investors away and lowering business confidence).
Term limits might help the economy, can't have the same person over several terms be trying and failing.
The thing is not that elections are bad, but that current politics is simply a joke, between the fact that politicians tend to be corrupt and that many people do not have a good democratic culture, it makes the system inefficient and continuously stops the progress of countries
I honestly thought he was going to put the US election on the Economics leaderboard.
Why would he - he's Australian and we're seriously sick and tired of hearing about your election!
Trepidation over the market in the lead-up to an election is a symptom that the state has too much control over economics and one or more parties threaten financial outcomes for a wide swath of the populace. 🦅
And that news media over plays substantially the actual impact of an election. Pretty much everyone in the US is saying “this will break our democracy!!”
But they said that last time too, and the time before that….
Or the populace is just delusional.
One of the ways that the elections in the US are SUPPOSED to be kept isolated from the economy and reduce uncertainty is that Congress is SUPPOSED to have already set the US Budget for the following year over a month BEFORE the election.
The problem of course is the gridlock that has paralyzed the budget process for the past decade and a half.
Yes it is bad.
Just in USA they spend billions on their campaigns.
Not milions.
Billions!
Thats a few good investments there...
Or a few bad investments...
@@TheLukass71 even if few of them are bad...
Is it still not better than to waste all that potential just on election campaign?
You forget who you are talking about. Billions doesn't mean anything anymore. Our government spends Billions every week, and only a small group in Congress are fighting back.
It should be illegal to fund a political campaign with private funds, like in normal countries.
"BILLIONS" sounds impressive, but in a rich country with 330M people, it's not that much.
For example, the US 2020 election cost a total of $16B. That's $48 per person.
1:03 What Capitol buildings is that? It’s very picturesque!
San Francisco city hall
It's the San Francisco City Hall
Though everyone longs for a seamless transition from one government to the other, uncertainty will always be there.
Just a minor nitpick: on the plot at 3:10 time should probably start at 1930, not at 1960, jumping back to 1940 and than forward again. That out of the way, thank you for all the great videos! Also, preem to see the Cyberpunk references 😀
"Be more informed" leads into the next issue "What to do when the information sources choose to hide or distort or just ignore the truth?"
9:55 - CC: Elaine Duck 🤣
Is that a name or a suggestion?
Hello from Uzbekistan.
Considering the jobs report the US just had for September (along with upwards revisions for the meh months of August and July), if this is considered "bad" then we're still doing pretty effin good, without even comparing ourselves to the rest of the globe.
I'm really surprised. A lot of good points in there.
As a Canadian, Old Reliable is sounding pretty good right now. We have a massive tax burden which doesn't help our economic performance.
Canadian taxes aren't that high for a developed economy. They represent 28% of total GDP. For a country that provides universal healthcare and other services, it's reasonable.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio
You forgot to put Democracy on the Economics Explained leaderboard...
It's the world's biggest glassmaker fallacy.
There's a social studies story I heard about when I was young from the native tribes in the Washington/Oregon areas. (the ones with totem poles).
They'd have a potlatch (adopted by us in the South as potluck dinners). They'd bring together the different families, and they'd throw as much of their resources and goods and wealth into a giant pyre as possible. Whoever threw in the most valuable amounts of goods got to be the chief tribal family and ruler for that year. (I probably have lost a lot of this over the years)
Our political elections are kind of like this. It's a giant money pit nationally, and it only benefits the winners because they get to enact laws that benefit themselves or not harm themselves. The biggest companies donate to both parties for this purpose. It sends bad price signals and workers scramble for those dollars when they could otherwise be doing productive work
The only solution is to diminish the government's capability to pick winners and losers.
The USA should really abandon the "winner take all" rubbish and the two-party duopoly. The best way to fix the American political system is to change it to a parliamentary system with proportional representation and more than just two parties that can win.
Or rank based primary voting where there is only one primary. Alaska is implementing this and it lets the huge section of independent voters decide who makes it on the final ballot.
@@jess8189 I think Alaska made a very good move there. Nice job, Alaska! (State Motto: These Bears Will Probably Not Eat You.)
I generally agree, with the caveat that we would have to expect that new emerging parties would probably be worse than the two we have now, at least to start. For example, although I'd expect a solid base of support for an "American Green" party that "might" be helpful, I'd also expect even greater support for a white nationalist party along with its Evangelical fellow travelers that would be very destabilizing without dilution of other big party concerns and the need to appeal to a wider base.
In all, I think it would be a long-term improvement, but it would take awhile to be a benefit, and it would initially cause way more problems than it would solve.
0:18 “the world is generally moving in the direction towards democracy” I definitely wouldn’t agree with that…
Well objective facts prove you wrong, but keep believing whatever your head canon tells you.
@@rigell2764 Recent data from Freedom House and V-Dem show a general backsliding of democratic countries and an increased inclination of countries with weak institutions moving towards autocracies. Even though high water mark for democracy is still very recent, we still need to be vigilant regarding recent developments.
@@rigell2764 It's true though--it's not just "head canon." The world became steadily more democratic up until 2000 or so (leading to predictions of "the end of history" and global utopia). Since then, it has been going the other way.
Look at the reports by Freedom House. Their annual report shows widespread democratic backsliding, both across developed and developing countries.
There are more countries with *elections* now, but those often aren't free or fair (as measured by international observers). Russia has elections, but they can't kick out Putin.
@@rigell2764 It's true, though. Look at the annual Freedom House reports. The move towards democracy peaked around 2000. Since then, it's been more common for countries to experience democratic backsliding.
Not what I was expecting. I thought it would be about election spending.
There are elections hapenning today in Brazil, by the way 😅(its greyed out)
There was also an election in the uk which didn’t show up on the map
How about doing "How bad is the economy for society"?
You didn’t put Elections on the Economics Explained leaderboard.
American elections are too long, too expensive and they have too many of them, with so many positions being electable, when other countries would just go through an HR process.
Elections might be bad for the economy however lack of it is even worse.
4:08 find me an election room that looks like that.
Do a "How Economy Damages the Elections" next
Election uncertainty can be good for economies in the long term as it encourages prudence and the hedging of bets. Stability and consensus leads to inefficient allocation into bubbles.
Just be informed….
Yeah we’re fucked.
It makes sense. The more different the candidates. The harder it is for business to adjust. I suppose this is why big business donate to both political parties in the US.
A bigger question (to pull from the libertarian playbook) is why should government have that big of a role on business?
Significant course corrections seem to imply corruption, which is a different problem altogether.
please clap! ... now i have three noise complaints filed against me in the curt of law
I always thought elections were a stressful time for the economy.
Not everyone thinks it is 'obvious' that democracy is a good thing. Some think monarchy is legitimately the best system. Count Dankula has a good explanation.
If you think that, you are just as delusional as the communist and anarchists.
Hmmmm only one candidate has said they want to have more power of the Fed and interest rates…
"Be better informed...????"
"I love the poorly educated..." DJT
0:25
As Uzbek, I can confirm, our elections are indeed important.
*The channel cared more than I do.
this is quite pedantic but I noticed you missed Japan's snap election that is to be held on the 27th October, and you also missed the UK's general election
Canada's parliament won't probably survive to the end of 2024 either.
@@lajya01 If it doesn't, that won't be a regularly scheduled election, though.
The government really shouldn't have a say in economics of the countries
Do not insult Democracy by putting Russia and Iran on the map of democratic elections.
Well politicians arent great for the economy either tbh
Come on, you're using pictures of Prague and haven't done yet a Czech rep. economy.
Why wasn't the UK highlighted at the beginning because we had a general election on July 4th
Brittania isn't relevant anymore 😅
@@leroydanny4072 but somehow African countries are
@@TJ_Travels1 they're more relevant than Brittania
@@leroydanny4072 right 😂
This is the cost of a democracy. The opposite may be better economically, but it’s awful in other ways.
Nice JEB Bush reference. 👏👏👏
yes.
virgin democracy vs chad enlightened monarchy
"Please clap." - Jeb Bush, Feb 2016
Up next, is diverting capital to housing for workers slowing our economic growth?
The idea that the average citizens across the West *actually* have a say in the way their nations are governed is an absurd claim by someone who purports to be an empiricist. Were that the case, immigration across the West would have ceased *decades* ago given the large majorities of the native populations which are & have been opposed to such.
I thought this was an unbiased channel. Apparrently someone got Kamala money.
How to say "I didn't watch" without saying it.
Wait... I was busy finding out which is the AI generated video and which is the real video.
Did I just see an arasaka logo in an EE vid?!??
UK elections already forgotten?
Nice cyberpunk reference.
Why no UK election highlight
When cutting taxes harmed the economy?
Prince Mitchkin Narrates
WEF be like: is letting the people decide their own rulers hurting the economy?
Even if it is - I still want to have a say in who rules my country. Not everything is about the economy.
Can u do a video on the crimes committed by the dubai elites and why the government ignore them? Countries and people are suffering because of this, here in Africa our apes are being slaughtered so the babies end up being exotic pets for the rich
The sources of the video and its focus on western and Chinese economy makes me feel it is not a broad enough video for knowledge sometimes.
I see many youtubers in knowledge based channels to have an Anglo Saxon biased content which isn't bad but it does feel boring after a point or if it is too much in a video while explaining a broad phenomenon.
My opinion is that basically majority of people are idiots and would vote for the first clown promising then free money, regardless if it’s sustainable or not. On top of that, generally the population does not ever take any consistent decision (for example about energy strategy). Italy is a good example of all this (I’m Italian).
Overall, It’s a terrible way of governing a country and an economy but it’s the only one that minimises probability of degeneration in dictatorship.
Aha, can't wait for my california vote to make a difference and totally not manipulated by the counters and their friends
0.00000001% of votes in the USA are fraudulent, I am not even joking, it is so ridiculously low, can you please find a source that most votes are rigged please? Or are you one of those maga types that believe everything the orange man says?
expectations and trust are key elements of monetary policy. If central banks were truly independent, elections would only affect at a smaller scale
Thing is, elections don’t really impact day to day life all that much. News media makes it sound like they do, like this election is the best or worst thing to ever happen, etc, but every time the hype dies down people chill out and move on. The fear expectation is what hurts.
If there Canada has any luck, we will have a new PM this year. If not, next year for sure.