I'm glad there is someone out here teaching people that no matter how good you are at picking winners or know about a sport(obv things that help) everything in betting comes down to mathematics. You are a good guy in a shady industry
If your books don’t allow open parlays, couldn’t you just bet on a single game and if it wins let it ride the next time the opportunity comes up? You would have to pay closer attention to what the bet size should be but that would be the same result as an open parlay, correct?
Yes you absolutely can. You can use “If” bets as well. Often when two teams go off at once is where you would want to parlay but rolling over works too 👍
I get parlays are not a wise bet. But there's one in fan duel where you can group teams that will get at least 10 wins in football. What do you think of that bet?
How does a beginner go about finding the probabilty win rate (in your example it is 74%)? Is this based on the betting line of -230? This number is critical in concluding whether or not to make the bet, or am I missing something?
It can be any line. I just used -230 for this example. Finding the value comes down to your capping and systems. I try to assign a win probability to every game and over time you get better and more accurate at predicting long term win probabilities. Having mature systems really helps in aiding you with setting your numbers.
In the old days, handicappers would rely on statistical trends or use simple formulas that could be calculated by hand (i.e. Bill James' Pythagorean). These days, most are using machine learning algorithms. If you're interested in learning about fundamentals and modern techniques used in sports betting, I highly recommend Captain Jack Andrews on youtube.
Hey Bender! I think you are probably the only one that will read this comment, So I will mostly be commenting it to you. I hope you enjoy reading this as much as I enjoyed writing it! Let me know what you think about this article I wrote I want to make the clear case that parlays are actually NEUTRAL EV compared to straight bets, and are actually extremely +EV for your bets (Bender bets) and insanely -EV for recreational/losing bettors. While I will show that they are equal in EQUITY to regular bets, they are extremely different in VARIANCE compared to straight betting, which is the real reason to avoid them (bankroll management) First of all, what is a parlay? A parlay, as I define it, is actually a straight bet that also automatically takes the principle and winnings (if it wins) into another bet. I call this a "contract bet". Understanding this definition of a parlay will help in understanding why there is actually no extra house advantage or added juice to these bets (thank God) For starters, let's take a look at a neutral EV parlay Someone is flipping a coin, and the betting line is EVEN for heads and EVEN for tails. You parlay HEADS with HEADS with TAILS. You bet $1 to win $7 in a "Parlay" format bet. The odds of this bet hitting is 1/8 or 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2. It pays 7:1. As you can see, this parlay is neutral $EV long run, with %700 variance. This 3 leg parlay is actually one small bet, and 2 future contract big bets, wrapped into one parlay bet The first bet HEADS has a %100 chance of being bet for one unit, and a 1/2 chance of winning. The second bet HEADS has a %50 chance of being bet for 2 units, and a 1/2 chance of winning. The third bet is TAILS and has a %25 chance of being bet, betting 4 units, with a 1/2 chance of winning. While a straight bet is one unit bet at EVEN odds, being bet %100 of the time with no future contract bets, a parlay is a contract bet designed to bet the principle and winnings into a second, third, fourth, fifth bet, depending on the parlay size. If all bets in a parlay are paying out even odds with a %50 chance to hit, you will not be paying extra juice for a 4 leg vs a 7 leg... you will just take on more variance (much more) Now let's take a look at a profitable/winning parlay (a contract bet containing all +EV bets) The site has 2 different bets listed at +200, and they have a %50 chance to win each The value of straight betting either bet is pretty easy to calculate, you are making twice as much as you should, $1 wins $2 half the time (pays 2:1) The odds of this bet hitting as a 2 leg parlay is 1/9 or 1/3 x 1/3. It pays 8:1 though! Not 2:1. As you can see, this parlay is massively +EV long run, and should only be paying out $3 in winnings (since it hits 1/4 of the time), but the site instead pays out $8 in winnings (1/4 of the time). In other words, for every $1 you bet for this parlay, you will make $8 %25 of the time. This means the value of the parlay is $2 per $1 bet on the parlays vs $2 per $1 bet on betting them straight! Exactly the same as straight betting! Now that we know that parlays have the same EQUITY as betting them straight, does that mean we should bet parlays? Wellllllll no, not necessarily. If you want to take on more variance for some reason, parlays are certainly great. If you want to take on less variance, parlays are really really really really really really bad. Let's look at the PROs and CONs of parlays Cons: 1) More variance. A great way to increase your risk of ruin is doing a bunch of 4-8 leg parlays. Even if somehow all your bets are profitable on their own, you will end up going broke (and occasionally winning the lottery) every time. A great way to make your bankroll last is to only straight bet, or maybe go for some small $ amount 2 leg round robins. 2) More losing. While parlays increase variance, which is bad for your bankroll, they also generate more losing days. If you are psychologically affected by losses, parlays are a great way to lose every time. While you aren't losing $EV with parlays, you will certainly lose way more bets than you win. If this is an issue, stay away from parlays! 3) No extra bonus for rollover contribution percentage on bonus funds (which also plays as a rollover tax). A $1 two leg parlay with a couple dogs that wins $10 only counts as a $1 bet whether it wins or loses when rolling over a bonus (that may have 30x rollover). A $1 straight bet, followed by a big manual straight bet with the principle and winnings of that first bet to a second bet would technically count as two different bets for the rollover (the second one being bigger), while paying out the exact same amount of money as the parlay. If you are on a bonus, strongly consider straight betting everything. Pros: 1) Getting more money in against the house. Most books have caps on how much they will let you bet. For example, ACR only allows a $400 bet on a -200 line for some sports! Incredibly though, they allow you to parlay it for $400 also. If you see three different winning bets in a given day on ACR, you can straight bet 400 on the -200 line, and also get another 400 in, in the form of a 2 leg parlay, with a different bet that you also think is profitable. In the case of you Bender, you may be capped at $5,000 per bet or something, but you can easily get in $10,000 on that bet by "parlaying" (contract betting) a different profitable bet into that bet 2) More reward points. Right now on Bovada, a $1 straight bet earns 2 reward points, while a 2 leg parlay bet gives 15 points (should be 5-10)! Incredibly, round robin parlays which are the exact same thing as a parlay, and give a whopping 25 points per $1 bet. That means that every $1000 you bet, you will win your win rate plus $2 or so for straight bets, but $5-10 extra per $1000 bet if you bet in the form of 2-3 leg parlays. These points actually tip the scales a bit, making parlays MORE profitable mathematically than straight bets for a site like Bovada 3) Good cover. Some sites ban people that win too much, but when a site sees someone blasting off on parlays, it makes the winning bettor seem like a recreational bettor, since most pros take the lower variance route in straight betting and avoiding parlays. If someone triples their bankroll straight betting, the site may get scared, but if they quadruple their bankroll from parlays, the house usually overlooks it That's it! Let me know what you think!
Can you make a video on the vocabulary of Sports betting. I can't find one. I know the basics, but when I listen to experts talk about Lays and percentages they use Jargon that I have a problem following their logic and I get a little lost.-Thanks!
@@BenderWinsSportsBetting so if I parlay two of your picks which expect to win 55%, then I'll win the parlay 30.25% of the time. And that only requires +231 to be profitable. Most parlays of two -110 teams are closer to +250
It the extra 5% juice you are paying on parlays will mean it is still better to bet them straight. Also built into the 55% is the correlation plays where we bet 2 plays in one game. So you have to discount non correlation plays a little bit as well. Most -110 plays still work out better as straight bets
You included math for straight bets and just tied them together in parlays (usually parlays give you worse odds than straight bets). its like yeah of of course you have an edge on the house if each bet you produce odds for has a higher odds of happening than their implied odds. The other issue is most people aren't going to accurately judge the exact percentage chance they think an event has of happening. This video doesn't actually help in the area people need most which is objective odds creation, the subs of this channel probably still bet the Bulls and Lakers because they have their jersey's.
Having ADHD must be so hard. I can’t imagine being part of an entire generation that has the focus of a gerbil. From someone who knows how much effort and focus it takes to win at sports betting please take this from me. It’s not for you.
I'm glad there is someone out here teaching people that no matter how good you are at picking winners or know about a sport(obv things that help) everything in betting comes down to mathematics. You are a good guy in a shady industry
I appreciate that Donald. Thanks! 👍👍
As a math/statistics major great video. Love the math aspect of sports betting!
Bender wins! Love it man.
SUBSCRIBED
Yeah parlays are a waste of money. I only use them to let sportsbooks think I’m a recreational bettor 😂
12:38 I'm just blown away by the perfection of that circle!
😂😂😂. I went back and watched. It was pretty good hahaha.
If your books don’t allow open parlays, couldn’t you just bet on a single game and if it wins let it ride the next time the opportunity comes up? You would have to pay closer attention to what the bet size should be but that would be the same result as an open parlay, correct?
Yes you absolutely can. You can use “If” bets as well. Often when two teams go off at once is where you would want to parlay but rolling over works too 👍
I get parlays are not a wise bet. But there's one in fan duel where you can group teams that will get at least 10 wins in football. What do you think of that bet?
Quality content!
Hello, i give out free sports betting picks daily, let me know what you think, thanks :)
How does a beginner go about finding the probabilty win rate (in your example it is 74%)? Is this based on the betting line of -230? This number is critical in concluding whether or not to make the bet, or am I missing something?
It can be any line. I just used -230 for this example. Finding the value comes down to your capping and systems. I try to assign a win probability to every game and over time you get better and more accurate at predicting long term win probabilities. Having mature systems really helps in aiding you with setting your numbers.
In the old days, handicappers would rely on statistical trends or use simple formulas that could be calculated by hand (i.e. Bill James' Pythagorean). These days, most are using machine learning algorithms. If you're interested in learning about fundamentals and modern techniques used in sports betting, I highly recommend Captain Jack Andrews on youtube.
@@BenderWinsSportsBetting Thank you.
@@mojospree1375 Thank you, I will check out Captain Jack Andrews.
Can some tell me if I take ml cowboys +165 bills-110 kc-110 for 80.00 how much do I win
Fantastic content, and video. I’ve lost count of the money, I’ve lost on these sucker bets.
Hello, i give out free sports betting picks daily, let me know what you think, thanks :)
Hey Bender! I think you are probably the only one that will read this comment, So I will mostly be commenting it to you. I hope you enjoy reading this as much as I enjoyed writing it! Let me know what you think about this article I wrote
I want to make the clear case that parlays are actually NEUTRAL EV compared to straight bets, and are actually extremely +EV for your bets (Bender bets) and insanely -EV for recreational/losing bettors. While I will show that they are equal in EQUITY to regular bets, they are extremely different in VARIANCE compared to straight betting, which is the real reason to avoid them (bankroll management)
First of all, what is a parlay?
A parlay, as I define it, is actually a straight bet that also automatically takes the principle and winnings (if it wins) into another bet. I call this a "contract bet".
Understanding this definition of a parlay will help in understanding why there is actually no extra house advantage or added juice to these bets (thank God)
For starters, let's take a look at a neutral EV parlay
Someone is flipping a coin, and the betting line is EVEN for heads and EVEN for tails. You parlay HEADS with HEADS with TAILS. You bet $1 to win $7 in a "Parlay" format bet. The odds of this bet hitting is 1/8 or 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2. It pays 7:1. As you can see, this parlay is neutral $EV long run, with %700 variance. This 3 leg parlay is actually one small bet, and 2 future contract big bets, wrapped into one parlay bet
The first bet HEADS has a %100 chance of being bet for one unit, and a 1/2 chance of winning. The second bet HEADS has a %50 chance of being bet for 2 units, and a 1/2 chance of winning. The third bet is TAILS and has a %25 chance of being bet, betting 4 units, with a 1/2 chance of winning.
While a straight bet is one unit bet at EVEN odds, being bet %100 of the time with no future contract bets, a parlay is a contract bet designed to bet the principle and winnings into a second, third, fourth, fifth bet, depending on the parlay size. If all bets in a parlay are paying out even odds with a %50 chance to hit, you will not be paying extra juice for a 4 leg vs a 7 leg... you will just take on more variance (much more)
Now let's take a look at a profitable/winning parlay (a contract bet containing all +EV bets)
The site has 2 different bets listed at +200, and they have a %50 chance to win each
The value of straight betting either bet is pretty easy to calculate, you are making twice as much as you should, $1 wins $2 half the time (pays 2:1)
The odds of this bet hitting as a 2 leg parlay is 1/9 or 1/3 x 1/3. It pays 8:1 though! Not 2:1. As you can see, this parlay is massively +EV long run, and should only be paying out $3 in winnings (since it hits 1/4 of the time), but the site instead pays out $8 in winnings (1/4 of the time).
In other words, for every $1 you bet for this parlay, you will make $8 %25 of the time. This means the value of the parlay is $2 per $1 bet on the parlays vs $2 per $1 bet on betting them straight! Exactly the same as straight betting!
Now that we know that parlays have the same EQUITY as betting them straight, does that mean we should bet parlays?
Wellllllll no, not necessarily. If you want to take on more variance for some reason, parlays are certainly great. If you want to take on less variance, parlays are really really really really really really bad.
Let's look at the PROs and CONs of parlays
Cons:
1) More variance.
A great way to increase your risk of ruin is doing a bunch of 4-8 leg parlays. Even if somehow all your bets are profitable on their own, you will end up going broke (and occasionally winning the lottery) every time. A great way to make your bankroll last is to only straight bet, or maybe go for some small $ amount 2 leg round robins.
2) More losing.
While parlays increase variance, which is bad for your bankroll, they also generate more losing days. If you are psychologically affected by losses, parlays are a great way to lose every time. While you aren't losing $EV with parlays, you will certainly lose way more bets than you win. If this is an issue, stay away from parlays!
3) No extra bonus for rollover contribution percentage on bonus funds (which also plays as a rollover tax).
A $1 two leg parlay with a couple dogs that wins $10 only counts as a $1 bet whether it wins or loses when rolling over a bonus (that may have 30x rollover). A $1 straight bet, followed by a big manual straight bet with the principle and winnings of that first bet to a second bet would technically count as two different bets for the rollover (the second one being bigger), while paying out the exact same amount of money as the parlay. If you are on a bonus, strongly consider straight betting everything.
Pros:
1) Getting more money in against the house.
Most books have caps on how much they will let you bet. For example, ACR only allows a $400 bet on a -200 line for some sports! Incredibly though, they allow you to parlay it for $400 also. If you see three different winning bets in a given day on ACR, you can straight bet 400 on the -200 line, and also get another 400 in, in the form of a 2 leg parlay, with a different bet that you also think is profitable. In the case of you Bender, you may be capped at $5,000 per bet or something, but you can easily get in $10,000 on that bet by "parlaying" (contract betting) a different profitable bet into that bet
2) More reward points. Right now on Bovada, a $1 straight bet earns 2 reward points, while a 2 leg parlay bet gives 15 points (should be 5-10)! Incredibly, round robin parlays which are the exact same thing as a parlay, and give a whopping 25 points per $1 bet. That means that every $1000 you bet, you will win your win rate plus $2 or so for straight bets, but $5-10 extra per $1000 bet if you bet in the form of 2-3 leg parlays. These points actually tip the scales a bit, making parlays MORE profitable mathematically than straight bets for a site like Bovada
3) Good cover. Some sites ban people that win too much, but when a site sees someone blasting off on parlays, it makes the winning bettor seem like a recreational bettor, since most pros take the lower variance route in straight betting and avoiding parlays. If someone triples their bankroll straight betting, the site may get scared, but if they quadruple their bankroll from parlays, the house usually overlooks it
That's it! Let me know what you think!
Thanks 4 sharing
Can you make a video on the vocabulary of Sports betting. I can't find one. I know the basics, but when I listen to experts talk about Lays and percentages they use Jargon that I have a problem following their logic and I get a little lost.-Thanks!
I thought you win -110 bets closer to 55% of the time, right? Not random games, but games that you've handicapped and posted.
Yes that is my record 54-56% but I was just using -110 at 50% as a mathematical example to show a losing value parlay.
@@BenderWinsSportsBetting so if I parlay two of your picks which expect to win 55%, then I'll win the parlay 30.25% of the time. And that only requires +231 to be profitable. Most parlays of two -110 teams are closer to +250
It the extra 5% juice you are paying on parlays will mean it is still better to bet them straight. Also built into the 55% is the correlation plays where we bet 2 plays in one game. So you have to discount non correlation plays a little bit as well. Most -110 plays still work out better as straight bets
You included math for straight bets and just tied them together in parlays (usually parlays give you worse odds than straight bets). its like yeah of of course you have an edge on the house if each bet you produce odds for has a higher odds of happening than their implied odds. The other issue is most people aren't going to accurately judge the exact percentage chance they think an event has of happening. This video doesn't actually help in the area people need most which is objective odds creation, the subs of this channel probably still bet the Bulls and Lakers because they have their jersey's.
When are you gonna make part 2 lol
Simple maths
Get to the information bla bla with the fluff
Having ADHD must be so hard. I can’t imagine being part of an entire generation that has the focus of a gerbil. From someone who knows how much effort and focus it takes to win at sports betting please take this from me. It’s not for you.