Trickle-Down EV Owner Economics Doesn't Work
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- Опубликовано: 6 авг 2024
- In our recent videos on affordable and used EV ownership, we've tackled some of the best electric cars you can buy if you're on a budget (because they're still well-supported by their respective automakers) - • Want A Well SUPPORTED ... .
We've also covered why we think there's a lot of gatekeeping in the EV repair industry - • It's More Expensive To... - but today we're focusing on something that we're regularly told in the comment section:
"EVs aren't expensive, and trickle-down economics will make EVs affordable for those who can't buy new."
While trickle down economics can work for vehicles that are well-supported and looked after, EVs dramatically challenge that ownership model, not because of reliability - but because of a lack of affordable, accessible parts and repair techniques.
Here's what needs to change...
00:00 - Introduction
02:09 - Cars are getting more and more expensie
03:28 - More people are buying used
04:32 - Trickle down ownership in ICE word
05:32 - EV repairs are still expensive
06:58 - The minority of owners can DIY repair
07:30 - Personal Experience - M
08:58 - Ice cars DO go wrong too!
10:01 - On paper, EVs are cheaper to own and easier to maintain (as long as main components stay happy)
10:31 - With the right help it's possible to keep older EVs happy and on the road
11:11 - Most buyers no-longer have the knowledge and skills to DIY maintain their vehicles
11:49 - It's rarely the batteries...
12:58 - EV Trickle Down is flawed
13:41 - How we fix this
15:09 - Conclusion
15:51 - Thanks, and goodbye!
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Script: Nikki Gordon-Bloomfield and Kate Walton-Elliot
Presenters: Nikki Gordon-Bloomfield and Kate Walton-Elliott
Editor, Colorist: Michael Horton
Art and Animation: Erin Carlie
Producer: Nikki Gordon-Bloomfield
© Transport Evolved LLC, 2023
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One of the headaches of watching Fully Charged on RUclips is that I see all the less expensive EVs available in Europe that have yet to make it to the alleged land of the free.
on point
Watching it from Europe I'm really glad I will have Citroen ec3 coming to shops next year for about 24 000 euros.
Not thinking this would change much but perhaps a petition to some foreign carmakers would reach media and raise the discussion on that topic. If members from Transport Evolved (and some other youtube channels) would make and sign a public letter to Citroen (for example) asking to sell that model in USA it would hopefully impact USA automakers to think about affordable EV 0,000001% more. And also there is higher than zero chance that this automaker who got the letter, mentions it in their next boardmeeting.
Maybe some youtuber could then hand it over to the office of said carmaker during their next trip to Europe. Or it could be just an e-mail....
I agree amd applaud smaller battery cars, but also question if the automakers are able to sustain low EV pricing if EVs are their only product. Right now they are all losing money building EVs and subsidizing their production with ICE sales of state incentives.
@@karlInSanDiego Part of the problem is that existing manufacturers are adjusting to a new technology, with employees who are used to the old technology. There is going to be some pain and struggles as they try to figure the new stuff out. It's easier to do with cars that have a higher profit margin.
Good one guys!
The emergence of smaller independent EV specialist repair garages can help in this equation - such as the likes of Cleevely Ev in the UK who provide a mobile service throughout the UK for the routine stuff but have a permanent workshop where they can delve into battery packs at the module level. Elbilmek of course in Norway is a shining example where they can take on virtually anything it would seem and at a more affordable level than any branded workshop. Once enough of these type of operations spring up then there is a viable alternative. Unfortunately that tipping point is some way off.
Design is changing as well. Stellantis is attempting to change the pack design with IBIS. Integrated Battery Inverter System would make it possible to switch out modules more easily. The problem is that Stellantis makes a small error in design as it assumes that the inverter needs to be integrated rather than it could still be separated with a relay to a singular inverter. I do not know if the phase synchronization for all the inverters is needed as much as Stellantis wants.
Let me add Electrify Garage and Gruber Motor Company (Both in US) in this list. we need a ton of them! even here in the Philippines as court EV market is starting to grow.
Used Cleevely in 2017/8 before they went mobile, at their old facility. After that Ecofix in Warwick got my custom as they were closer. We have a better UK infrastructure of EV garages now, ever expanding. They will all do module repair, not just swap out.
It’s all fun and games until a manufacturer copies Apple - making repairs possible only with proprietary tools not available to independent repair shops
@@Muhluri
Ironically, even Apple is moving away from that model.
Apparently they've learned that there is money in recycling.
Outstanding. The reason I subscribe is the intelligence and thoughtfulness here. So valuable to have people who actually own EVs long term to share their experiences.
TE Staff: Ya’ll are perfect the way you are. Your personal business is your personal business. No one deserve hate for speaking their truth (or THE truth for that matter) or living their life.
‘Keep Evolving’ isn’t supposed to be an insult.
If someone else finds it offensive, they should probably delve into why THEY are triggered by that sentiment.
I’ve taken that slogan to heart. We, as a society, are supposed to change. The betterment of mankind is the goal of the compassionate and empathetic. We tend to buy long and sell short. We’re ok with that, as long as it benefits everyone, not just the rich.
If some people don’t like that, then they clearly aren’t your target audience.
Those of us who are open-minded and accepting of those of varying degrees of all spectrums of the rainbow, appreciate the good in everyone.
I’ve been a Patreon for several years, and I always appreciate yalls strive to inform us of what’s going on.
Sending yall love from Allen, TX… soon to be Portland, OR.
Wonderful words. You are going to love Portland!
Oh yeah...Portland is a regular paradise.... between the non-functional government, and the open air fentanyl use.
Two years ago when my beloved MINI's engine blew up with just 97k miles on the clock, I found a great deal at my local VW dealership. I purchased an off lease 2017 e-Golf with 20k miles, DCFC and the 38kWH battery for $17.5k. I trickle charge at 500 watts with the $200 16 amp 220v charger I got from Lowe's. No observable battery degradation after me driving 27k miles.
I'm not sure the dealer knew what they had as I rarely see the e-Golf for under $22k.
One part of the problem that you’ve described with EV repairs is that there isn’t anywhere near sufficient training for mechanics to deal with them. In other words, the issue of mechanics not wanting to open up a battery pack is as much about the fact that they are not trained to do it as it is about general liability.
Yeah. One shouldn't blame any garage not qualified touching the EV. There is very high risk of serious electrocution open opening that battery casing not knowing what one is doing.plus on customer side someone not knowing what they do messing with he pack or power electronics can cause parts damage or even create say fire safety hazard further on via not connecting high energy electric stuff to right standard.
So any garage not qualified *should* say "we aren't touching that with 10 foot pole, we aren't qualified".
There is training and qualification programs for EV mechanic. Just needs more support and some time.
With the lack of right to repair these days, they don't want the knowledge beyond stealiships
Even Hertz noted that EVs are more expensive to repair in their latest quarterly report.
They are more shitty about the resale value being eaten away by new model prices. But yes, the Hertz fleet was going to accelerate used EV adoption. Was. Now, not so much
Any saving I made of owning my i3 for 7 years were completely wiped out (and then some) when the EME unit developed a fault. 6 months later it was finally repaired by an independent repairer, but the difficulty in getting parts was ridiculous. I still had to sell the car once it was repaired, to pay for the repair, but if I’d had it done at my BMW main dealer, the repair would have been more than the car was worth. EV owners are still very much at the mercy of the manufacturers and Main dealers, and this has got to change if EV ownership is to flourish.
I think you'll see these same practices in the next generation of ICE cars as well. Subscription services and 'no owner serviceable parts' seem to be regular things owners encounter in higher-end cars. And those higher-end brand's business models tend to flow down to middle and lower cost manufacturers. I'd also be curious to know if any vocational schools are teaching EV maintenance and repair classes, or if they're still fully focused on ICE vehicles.
Weber Auto is teaching technicians to work on EVs. They also have many great videos on RUclips for free.
However we also need electronics specialists, like Gruber Motors, that reverse engineer electronics to allow expensive components to be repaired, instead of just replaced.
This! Open source and right-to-repair are ESSENTIAL - Nikki.
Such an important converstion, Nikki. Thank you for sharing this. I had a friend recently opt for an ICE vehicle despite my presentation of the longer term economics, because the upfront cost of an EV with enough range to charge weekly (apartment with no charging infra or flexibility to install it) was too high. The cost of repairs and access to non-dealership mechanics and Open Source repairs on second hand cars (essentially right to repair) may need legislation to correct. I think that would be a good step.
Before I moved out of my last apartment charging was going to be a problem. I was not looking forward to driving to some L2 charger in the evening, bike back, sleep, then bike back out to the car.
I found a 15Amp outlet that could possibly work in the paid visitor parking (If I was willing to wait 16 hours for a charge). Unfortunately management was not interested in helping me determine how much power I could *actually* safely draw (up to 12 outlets (6 duplex) are allowed on a circuit).
@@jamesphillips2285so frustrating. I feel like changes to the landlord tenant acts or municipal public L2 charging will be needed to address equitable access to charging. DC fast charging is a much less important problem but it is getting the lion's share of attention.
One option for affordable EVs is sit-down electric scooters. There are many 50cc equivalent EV scooters available, and 150cc equivalent scooters are starting to emerge. Now that Nikki has a Vetrix scooter, hopefully Transport Evolved will have some coverage of new EV scooters as well.
India seems to be leading in 150 cc equivalent EV scooters, and the "Ola S1 Pro" looks like a "two-wheeled affordable Tesla."
If they can get an ev scooter they can afford an ice car
@@linusa2996Perhaps. But at least in the USA most electric scooters are less $$ than any ice car in reasonable condition that isn't 20+ years old. Idk what the prices are like in india
A recent out-of-warranty repair on my Chevrolet Volt cost $250 per hour just for service labor/diagnostic. So a $250 sensor cost $1,000 total for the diagnostic, labor, and part.
I hope that Aptera can bring their EVs to market at the $25k price point that they initially set out to do. And yes, I know that price may be out of reach of many people as well.
At this point I feel like the Cyber truck will hit the market before Aptera ever gets going. IF Aptera ever gets going.
Aptera also has repairability as a core focus. Really hope production goes well.
@@proudvirginian this is the latest update on production progress- ruclips.net/video/B5PWnmNBXEo/видео.html
@@proudvirginianthey are different vehicles. The Cybertruck reportedly will average 400wH/mile. 571wH/mike at a constant speed of 65.5 may. The Aptera reportedly will use 100wH/mile. Maybe even less. It is also butt ugly.
@@garywozniak7742 I know. Tesla fan boiz and hopeful Aptera owners have been drooling over the cyber truck and the solar cough drop respectively for years. I think Tesla will get their "butt ugly" truck out to the masses first. And I'm not sure Aptera ever will.
I agree with you. I had a 2014 Ford cmax phev. It was not expensive. I bought it used. I went 40k with no problems. Then I got an error message. My normal mechanic never liked the car. The part the car needed was $2200. and he was not excited about changing it. Since the problem was still intermittent he recommended trading to a dealer. I took it to carmax and they gave me $2k less than I paid two years prior. I used to drive it 12 miles to work and then plug it in. After work it was fully charged and I drove home again on electric. I once went 1500 mile without buying gas. Now I have a third generation Toyota Prius.
How do you sleep with no guilt?
I bought a 2016 Leaf a year ago with an upgraded 40kWh battery pack. Best car I’ve ever owned. Thanks EVRides.
I know people think I'm crazy but, I traded in my 22 Honda HRV with 4000 miles for a 2020 Chevy bolt premier with 33,000 miles but the bolt had a brand new battery pack replaced June 2023 with an eight year 100,000 mile warranty there's still warranty onthe bolt for corrosion and a bumper-to-bumper for 12 months since it is used and it's great. I love it and I get free charging at work.
Thanks for this perspective. I'm a two time used EV owner. A first and second gen Leaf. I got my first chance because of the value crash for first gen EVs. People we terrified by range limits, so by taking the leap, I got an amazingly appointed Nissan with under 16k miles for $9000! Best car deal ever! I did have mechanical issues though - but all things you experience with an ICE car. The AC compressor clutch went bad, and a front wheel hub began to come apart. But due to the super low mileage and age, all was repaired under warranty.
I've been designing policies and trying to change local laws to provide greater access for physical infrastructure for EVs, but maybe I need to focus more on job training for independent auto shops looking to stay competitive and service this market better.
Lol... as always. Very well supported and presented points. I love the reference to philosophy tube. I love the spot on British snark that drives the point home and makes me smiling while agreeing.
Actually a huge number of vehicles are on 3 year leases. They will be hitting the used car market soon. There is a lot of repair gatekeeping though.
Have you looked up the prices for 2-5 year old EVs? In the USA EVs don't really start to depreciate until they are 5 or 6 years old. Current price online for a new Tesla Model 3 RWD starts at $38,990 before incentives, depending upon if you qualify for the Federal Tax credit and if your state or utility offers addition incentives the typical price paid nets around $31,000 for a base model; meanwhile the lowest priced used Model 3 RWD offered by Tesla is a 2020 with 45,000 miles at a net price of $27,600. $3,500 less but you have to pay a higher used car interest rate to finance; this certainly does not compensate fairly for 45,000 miles of use!
@@howardmarkert8150dropping pretty hard In Australia like the UK .. I think it’s the insurance ? Very expensive compared to ICE
That might have to do with the number of EVs sold in those countries with Chinese made batteries and the fear many have of those batteries catching fire. Very few Chinese made EV's have even made it to the US for testing let alone for sale.@@MrBigbangbuzz All new cars in the US have very high priced insurance due to the cost of repairing all the sensitive sensors and electronics for semi and full autonomous driving. ruclips.net/video/MUkFsuilVD0/видео.html
I am a chartered architect in the UK and after over 45 years since owning my first car, only one of them (a very small Fiat) has been new.
You really hit it out of the park. For the EV revolution to work, they must be more than one-use disposables. The reflexive anti-EV trolling on every forum attack the the problems that are either not real or which are rapidly being solved (batteries fail after a couple years, no charging infrastructure, no recycling, needing a hundred miles more range than whatever the current record is). I think you have identified the real problem that EV makers either have not solved or are deliberately causing.
One of the issues with “trickle down economics” is it requires free markets to work but free markets are the last thing capitalists want.
I don't think of trickle-down used EVs as the same as trickle-down economics. The transition from new EV to used EV on the market is easily trackable and quantifiable by price
A lot of people are terrified of buying second hand EVs. There's a lot of potential unknown costs. Better to stick with what you know. Also, this is where FUD is most influential.
I do agree with more open support for older EVs by manufacturers. It is sad the government might have to get involved, but repair and upgrades of older EVs should be an option without having to go through the original builder.
This is all part of the right to repair movement which seems to move at a glacial pace and mostly lose ground to increasing complexity. Common modules will be our salvation but here we are only in the early stages of adopting a common charge plug.
I love your solutions at the end of video, and they could help a bit.
I'm very skeptical that personal EVs are sustainable under zero carbon because of the very difficult to eliminate production emissions, their complexity that makes production emissions nearly impossible and certainly improbable to eliminate, and our problematic churn rate because cars are designed to be sacrificial in an accident, leasing practices, planned obsolescence and peoples' privilege encourage consumerism instead of forcing long term ownership and diligent care.
I believe we need to disincentivize driving altogether, now, because of the inevitability of car phase out, again due to vehicle production emissions not being viable under zero emissions. The privilege to own a car is no longer ours and this will become more apparent and harder to compromise on, the longer we ignore the need for a sustainable public transit system, that itself will cost a fortune in public funding and must be done more sustainably with the things no one can agree on yet (electric pantogragh rail, not electric buses).
Honestly, we're heading towards dystopia with unrealistic visions of 500 mile range Toyotas and Mercedes, instead of admitting that the clock already ran out years ago on automakers showing they can build sustainable transportation. The LCAs already prove that these cars including much higher to produce emissions EVs, aren't compatible with zero carbon emissions. No one is acknowledging that limit in the EV world. We're just kicking the can down the road with 50% to 75% lifetime emissions reductions, not addressing that this is still unsustainable.
Could you design a sustainable car capable of perpetual 3 year lease cycle behavior of ownership? No. If cars continue to be treated as privileged but necessary tools because we ignore public transportation's inevitable replacement of personal cars/SUVs/pickups, then this will all end in fighting and political breakdown over who gets to continue to pollute and tear up the remaining resources producing cars, and who no longer has the military might to defend their right to cars. It's a selfish outlook to keep clinging onto the car, once you understand it will never be sustainable.
How would I paint a picture of a quasi-sustainable car? It would discourage single occupancy or be micro and austere enough to warrant single occupancy (think velomobile or maybe Level 7 quadracycle). It would either be infinitely rebuildable, or it would be made of bamboo poles or another raw readily renewable simple material and powered by an extremely low powered motor and very small battery. The auto industry has literally designed less sustainable EVs as they've evolved from Leafs and Fiat 500e's to Model Xs, EV9s, and Lighnings marketed as a car replacement. Yes, Tom Molougny just recommended one on Batteries Included to a family of 5 because rear seat room.
We're in a bubble, and as fun and responsible as it may seem to encourage EV adoption over ICE at whatever vehicle production emissions and operations emissions (via less efficient design), the truth is cars are unsustainable and We're locking in car dependency the longer we pursue this endeavor.
Let's stop ignoring Polestar, Volvo, and Fisker's LCAs as meaningless or conspiratorial. These documents allow us to see the large impact of automobile production and its incompatibility with a zero carbon future. And please remember and acknowledge that zero emissions by 2050 is an imaginary, made up goal by imperfect leaders who face political overthrow if they demand the more realistic, faster zero carbon emissions date. Our decision making is extremely clouded by momentum, our fear of economic instability, and our limited discourse about the magnitude of change that zero carbon must involve, including a complete rewriting of our transportation model.
Bringing up topics like this is what keeps me glued to your channel. I can afford the gatekeeping of mobile devices especially those from that fruit company but if the same goes with EVs then people with limited financial resources like me will be done for. Like the products of that fruit company, I look for & get hand-me-downs (i.e. buy popular, affordable used products) with huge supply of fan-boys (a.k.a. enthusiasts) to transfer my problems to, when considering to own EVs.
There was a point where my used EV, which I’ve road tripped around the country so the odometer has some miles on it, was worth more on the used car market than I paid for it new.
Good luck getting affordable vehicles into the secondhand market if these trends continue.
That's not just EVs. Used vehicle prices are insane all around.
Used prices are coming down now. Supply and demand and all of that.
I just picked up a 2 year old ID3 for €25k, I was shocked at how much 2nd hand EV prices have fallen in the last few months. The recent Tesla price drops and interest rate hikes seem to be having an effect.
@@denism66 i think it is more just supply and demand. There are finally getting to be a significant number of EVs on the used market bringing the price of all used EVs down from the ridiculous levels we saw previously.
Good points! Right to repair should be required by law all around the 🌎.
I'm from the government, and I'm here to help.
you present a lot of good thoughts on the challenges and solutions for maintaining the historic car ownership model. Another solution to the challenges you mention is the transition away from that model to one where car ownership is far less necessary. You touched on public transportation in the intro but I expect short term rental and increasingly affordable taxi services will continue to expand. EV's are a natural cost cutting option for fleet operators who can absorb the occasional expensive EV repair while avoiding the common ICE maintenance. And then there's the robotaxi potential that might be just around the corner or decades away.
Here in the US so much is priced for the middle to upper middle class even though a vast swath of the population earns less than $40k a year before taxes which isn't even enough to rent an apartment in some cities so a properly working EV with a healthy battery is well out of reach like so much else. I only just gotten my first hybrid and was only able to do so because I bought it from a salvage auction.
Very informative and enjoyable, thanks.
Nikki, you are such a great speaker. You make your presentations interesting, understandable, and useful.
Very good video that reflects my feelings almost perfectly. As a person who drives very little I tend to keep my vehicles for a long time, so I would like an EV that will last 20 or more years. That said, I am unlikely to buy another car since I am now 72 and my current car has another 20 years left in it assuming I continue to drive the 4K miles per year I have averaged for the last 20 years. I am a firm believer in improving public transit. If I lived in a city with decent transit I doubt that I would even have a car.
My wife got me a 'Voltbike Outback' for getting around town instead of driving my Mazda B4000. I do need to dress like I'm going skiing, it's blinking cold here in Terrace, British Columbia this time of year. The bicycle needs charging every 3 days or so as I ride about 20 km a day for my needs.
good job covering this topic
Car ownership in general is a tax on the poor, even before adding the expensive price of batteries.
Most of the places I lived in required a car even if I could barely afford it. In some cases, the cost of gas and repairs vs the low pay made it a break even situation, so it was basically like working for free.
The main cost of EVs is batteries and another factor is safety regulations.
The battery prices are falling with economies of scale, and with new EV and battery factories being built in the US, car prices will go down dramatically in 5 years as these factories start turning out cars in the US. At that time, the battery costs will reach price parity with ICE. However, the average price of new cars is 50,000 dollars. That is hardly affordable for the majority of the US population. And there is very little motivation for car companies to churn out low priced cars at all, let alone electric cars with expensive batteries. They mainly want profits. If BYD is allowed to build a factory in the US, then we might see some cars priced at less than 20,000 dollars.
Chinese automakers can make both expensive and very low priced EVs and there are huge markets for all levels of cars. The same is not necessarily true in the US.
If a US poor person had the option of a 5,000 dollar EV or a 5,000 dollar ICE car, the ICE car would almost always be a better option.
The 5,000 dollar EV can't go the speed limit on the freeway, which most people would need to use on a regular basis. The 5,000 dollar car also doesn't have the safety equipment to be road legal. The cheapest new EVs are over 20,000 dollars in the US.
Repair infrastructure and charging infrastructure is still weak and underdeveloped in the US. For a middle class person with a home, this might be fine. You can pay for a charger to be installed in your garage. If you are renting, you would have to convince your landlord to do this. If your car breaks, down, you probably have a second car.
But if you live in an apartment and have only one car you need to get to work, you need a dependable car that you can afford to repair. An EV probably isn't a good option today.
We'll be lucky if that changes in only 10 years. It might well be 20 years.
Bravo, thanks for shedding light on the subject. There was on other thing that you missed about trickle-down EVs. Not only is there the cost of despreciation, but the EV battery has degraded by certain percentage that the original range that was rated for the vehicle is no longer attainable.
Loving the desaturated asides!
A question: are EVs "more affordable to run" if we remove the massive public subsidies they receive? Like the free charging stations at the grocery, fed. purchase subsidies, decreased registration costs, etc.?
Things to buy on credit include a home: full stop.
Elon Musk doesn't want anyone repairing anything, because he thinks your Tesla still belongs to him…just buy a new one; he can afford to!
This is also why I still drive a 1991 ICE vehicle with no driver assists (read: power anything) which I can repair myself.
Love the way you talk down to your audience.
Very true, but we are in a transitioning phase when it comes to EVs. It's one of the reasons I selected a Model Y as a replacement for my 2014 Volt. Model Y is becoming the most sold car in the world, which translates directly into used parts availability.
Keep Evolving Nikki!!! I am getting my new traction battery in my 2015 Kia Soul EV+ on Nov. 7!
Very important discussion. Well chosen topic, and well orated. Thanks Nikki.
After years of watching the channel I finally got a 2023 leaf. It may seem a strange choice but the primary factors were cost and actually existing at the time of purchase. Side note: 4 adults took a long trip this year. Between the leaf and 3 ICE cars, we rented. While the ice cars technically had the range their owners did not trust them on a long trip. The three reasons "need new tires", "wonky engine", "just plain near end of life (a PT cruiser)".
I love your intro. Truth can be hard to digest but important
True. This is a temporary problem. Unfortunately that limited time is around now. When normal cars are EVs and piston engines are rare enthusiast items (Norway around now), the ICE cars are the ones with the difficult repairs. All new gas cars in Norway will be super rare models when they are old enough for big repairs. Then trickle down EV ownership works just fine. As you ramp up, 5-year-old EVs are super rare in the big picture, anyway. The people who bought them new were committed enthusiasts, and the people buying them used, unfortunately have to be, too.
One obstacle for preowned EV is affordable battery replacements. Aptera checks all the boxes for both new and preowned EV ownership. I can't wait to get mine!
Most EVs live out their useful lifespans without requiring anything remotely like a battery replacement. Just expect EVs to last 15 to 20 years (like an ICE), and have somewhere around 75% to 85% of the original range by then. Battery replacement is mostly FUD.
@@garysmith5025 that is a bombshell and great news
Thank you.
I saw a little concept car at the Japan Mobility show with three seats and used Gogoro scooter batteries. I don’t know the range or price or anything about it, but I think that is a way to go for low priced urban mobility for people not willing to just get a scooter. I think the two battery Gogoro scooter has a 105 mile range, but in Taiwan there is a battery swap kiosk every half mile. They are just getting started in a few other countries, but I think this is the way to solve the expense issue.
One of the reasons we went for the Kia Soul EV is that 90% of the car is identical or near identical to the ICE version, giving us easy access to most parts and repairs. Of course when that 10% difference pops up, it will cost the big bucks, such as paying nearly $2k for a cooling system pump, which is still on backorder 6 months later.
All good arguments, makes sense. One other thing are because many EV's are bought with rebates but when sold used the actual depreciation is on the value it was before rebates... cars that are only a few years old are probably not as worth it vs just buying new and getting the rebates... and if EVs start on the deflationary cost curve of technology like Teslas seem to be... it's again usually worth it to just buy new and get more for the same price...
Just Awesome this information. Really made me think different about this subject.
You perfectly summarized why after much research I decided that even though I could afford much more, the car I will be buying in the next few months will be the lowest priced but reliable new ICE, combined with something electric, probably 3-wheeled and inexpensive with A/C that should become available in 2024 (as a 2nd. "car")
I don't know... I bought a 2018 Model 3 Long Range Dual Motor for $ 27K in April. I live in the Los Angeles area. Hurricane Hilary ruined one of the repeater cameras, rendering the enhanced autopilot inoperative. Los Angeles has LOTS of Teslas, and LOTS of Model 3 Junkyards now. I found a junkyard repeater camera for $75, got into the secret Service mode on my used 70K miles Model 3 and fixed it myself. I also did brake burnishing to eliminate brake pad squeaks using that service mode. I've had good luck so far.
When I bought my last car, I could have afforded a Nissan Leaf, but I regularly need to travel 100 miles in one day. Not to mention the long list of terrible things I have heard about poor battery management for that car. When I bought my most recent car just this year, I never even considered buying an EV as there is nothing when the same range anywhere near the $15,000 price point that I had to spend. My 2015 Subaru Crosstrek has had some issues since I bought it, but nothing that normal ICE vehicle owners haven't experienced. I would much rather go with the devil you know than be surprised by a $15,000 repair bill if the battery pack was to fail in the time I owned it.
In Europe Citroen have announced a small EV for less than £21k! Fiesta size. By the way, I love what you are doing! Love your channel.
I'm in the process of building an ebike. I'm soooo geeking out on my project. Ebike components have come a long way in the last 2 decades!
I just bought a 2015 Fiat 500e 59,000 miles I am absolutely in love with the car but I only have 2 months left in the manufacture's powertrain warranty so I am really on the fence about what I should do if I have a major component failure... I live in central FL there is a specialized EV garage here in Ocala so I would probably start there I guess but I am used to fixing my gas cars myself when they break but I have no knowledge or experience with EV's the last electric car I owed was a Red C4 Power Wheels lol in certain strange ways the Fiat reminds me of a grown up version of that
At this point, finding a local repair shop who is willing to work with you on your car should things go wrong is truly important. It isn't doom and gloom for sure, but you should absolutely get involved in the Fiat 500e community - and hopefully together you'll be able to find resources - Nikki.
Great video, many low income people buy new economy cars because it will be reliable for many years. There aren't as many as there used to, there is the Mitsubishi Mirage, Nissan Versa and I can't remember others.
Just to emphasize your point on how much easier it is to repair an ICE car. One can find a whole engine with all the bits on it for about 1K or less from the junk yard, from a wreak or what not, and het it installed or another 1K. The engine is most likely to be good for more than 100k miles.
Over the last five years, have bought two second hand EVs which I still own. Both have had suspension related repairs, probably a bit earlier than expected for the age of the cars (2015/2016). The Renault Zoe had to have a critical power electronics unit replaced that delivered the regen power back to the battery pack. Fortunately the main dealer replaced it at no cost, probably because I was renting the battery, even though it wasn't the battery per se. They told me it would have cost thousands otherwise. So I regard that as a narrow escape.
At least in the case of the Bolt, I know it *is* possible to open up the battery and replace bad components because I have watched RUclips videos of people doing it, using GM's own service manual. Whether any mechanic in the real world would actually be willing to conduct such a repair, and whether or not it is even possible to get replacement parts from GM if you're not an authorized dealer, of course, may be a different story.
I’m halfway through the video, and I have a few thoughts:
First off, the issue of expensive vehicle repair is not limited to electric vehicles. As safety features and engines and other technology has gotten more complex, it’s become more and more difficult to have repairs done on cars.., All of them.
For instance, I have a Fiat 500. But it is based on the Fiat 500, and the entire body is exactly the same for both vehicles. I got into a fender bender, and the insurance found me not at fault, and we’re happy to process to find out what the repair wouldn’t tail. Unfortunately, because of how the 500 is built, Few dents in a rear quarter panel we’re going to cost over $12,000 at the appropriate repair shop. There wasn’t any place I could go that Fiat would accept that my insurance would pay for. And since the car was worth $15,000, they totaled the car. Now I went through all of the process to keep it, because it runs perfectly well. But even if I tried to go cheaply, the minimum that I found that might be possible was over $3000. That is not affordable for what, in an older vehicle, might’ve been at most of $500 repair.
Things like headlights, bumpers, quarter panels, etc. are significantly more expensive to repair these days than they used to be.
As for mechanical issues, on the one hand, generally speaking things like wheels tires and suspension cost about the same whether the vehicle is brand new, 20 years old, an electric vehicle, or a gas car. But other things are significantly more expensive to repair across-the-board, no matter what kind of car you drive, if the vehicle was made in the last 15 to 20 years.
The fact of the matter is that safety requirements for newer cars are more stringent, the technology available to design the various parts is more sophisticated and complex, and there are even a bunch of vehicles where they are gas engine cars, but you’re not allowed to look at the engine. Most of those are performance cars, but it is starting to move down the line. And then, with so much going through the infotainment system, things like swapping out a radio, or changing some other convenience features, it’s really not something that a home hobbyist or even a local repair shop can be expected to do.
Right to repair plays into this, but it’s also the way manufacturers are building vehicles. The fact of the matter is, very few vehicle manufacturers are making basic transportation of any kind that is designed for someone on a budget to get repaired.
I’m not saying this video is wrong about the expense of repair, i’m just saying that the entire industry is moving away from making vehicles better affordable.
As the gasoline fleet starts getting old enough that it needs to be trashed, I suspect that anything built after about 2005 is just going to go away. And so what you end up with is brand new cars, cars that are less than five years old, and cars that are more than 20 years old. that 20-year-old number is going to stay pinned at 2005, and the gap between those cars and newer cars that you can keep in repair is going to increase. At least if things keep going the way they are.
It seems like auto OEM‘s are following the lead of smart phones with regards to how they expecttheir buyers to keep their cars.
And of course, getting something repaired at the dealership has always been the most expensive way to do it.
Thoughtful and sophisticated contribution.
I'm extremely fortunate to live like 10 minutes from Rich Rebuilds' shop, plus another independent shop that specializes in EV/PHEVs.
When major shifts happen, there are people who suffer more than others. What makes this shift more complex is greedflation and inflation are at work. I find it very annoying how many media outlets cry about the cost EVs, all while ignoring the rapid rise of ICE prices. In just a couple of years vehicles jumping 30% in price and there are some studies out there that are saying it is greedflation at work. Between dealers who are liking the idea of having less inventory, because less inventory lowers their financial burden on top of lowering the headaches of managing inventory, but creates this lovely situation where someone comes to a dealer for a base trim level model, they see the lot is mostly empty, but for a few higher trim level models, and then they are told it could be months before you can get a base trim model, so why don't you just spend another few thousand dollars for higher trim models or maybe they will have the base model, but it is have a SRP, not MSRP on it, which means the dealer just throws whatever price on a vehicle and that is what they think you should pay.
Just heard an interview where a Toyota dealer in Canada said he has people waiting two years on some models of Toyota vehicles. All this hate for EVs while the ICE side of the business is just beating the crap out of consumers.
This is where robotaxi might be a solution. I know, many hear would not give a dime to Tesla because of some of Musk's comments. I get it, but I also get we have a big problem, one that needs a solution ASAP, and right now Tesla is closer to offering that solution. The recent demo of FSD with the AI focused system, basically a learning FSD, could be the kind of thing that gets FSD to where it needs to be. If the FSD service was $150 a month, reliable, and in most markets, that could help millions of people. My gas bill on the 2012 Camry SE I just sold, was $250-$350 a month. Not counting insurance, SMOG checks, oil changes, tires, etc. Even if FSD was trusted and approved next month, it will still a few years to get it to cover the masses. I have a gut feeling Tesla will split FSD into two licenses, one for private use, what people have been buying and one that is for commercial use, and that will be the much more expensive option. That could slow adoption/expansion of a robotaxi service, but we are not there yet, so do not spend too much time getting mad about something that has not happened and may not.
Since I am not sure how many Americans would trust a basic EV, really basic, like what China makes for their market and few others in the region, we may need the US government to expand into supporting more raw materials development in the US and other support industries for EV production to help keep costs down as we transition. We know the US still gives subsidies to oil companies to this day, so maybe pull that funding and apply it to the raw materials aspect of the EV industry instead. Lower materials and batteries costs should go a long ways to being able to offer lower cost EVs to the masses. Getting the US over to EVs is much more than just a green thing to do, it will break OPECs power over the US and a more energy independent the US is the better the economy will be and national safety.
I answer the expensive Eevee's statement with Chevy bolt under $30,000 w/o incentives. If the reply is: piece of junk / ugly / not enough..., then the answer is they want everything for free. Yes $30K is still a lot & you need to battle dealers, life is hard.
I do agree there are those that want things basically for free, but some of the retail workers I know make under $50,000 a year and by the time you get done with housing and basic living expenses, buying a vehicle is very difficult. Get a better job is a common response, but I get why some making that job change is a big ask.
Bill Gates gave one of the best graduation speeches with the line "Life is not fair, get over it.".
I really wish life was fair and simple, but it is not. The most successful people in the world often hit a very low point and instead of rolling over and crying about it, they fought for a better future. It did not happen in a day, a month or a year, but with consistent effort over time they made their life better. @@rp9674
You've nailed it again!
You did great Thanks
Excellent report.
Sadly if you can’t afford it new you probably can’t afford to maintain it used.
There is a reason I settled on the Nissan Leaf when shopping for a used EV: it was the only non-Tesla vehicle actually made in quantity. Because Quebec had been subsidizing EVs for 8+ years: there was actually a viable used market for the things. Unfortunately shipping expenses would make up a substantial part of the price for me living in Alberta.
There's a couple of companies making aftermarket battery packs for the first 2 gens of Leaves as well.
The last week I bought a new vehicle. Its an ICE vehicle, and I will have to wait to receive it. If it were a BEV I would have it already. So why would I not buy the BEV when I could now be driving it? In a word price. To get a vehicle with the same capabilities that I needed it would cost over $10k more. And that does not even count the cost of adding charging equipment to your home.
Some will write that I am not saving that much, if any. When you take into account fuel and maintenance costs, they will say I will be losing in the long run. While I think this likely in many cases, in other cases I think it not so likely. And if you think the cost of electricity will be as low as it is now in the future... forget it. The cost of electrical grid upgrades will be costly.
I don’t drive a lot, and over the last 30 years of driving I have been able to handle most repairs myself. So, the figures that are tossed about on the internet for the cost of running an ICE vehicle are not accurate if you maintain your own vehicle. I have never had a major failure of a transmission, or engine. Again, doing your own maintenance makes an ICE vehicle more cost effective than “official” numbers would suggest.
Some day ICE vehicle’s will not be an option, but that day is still a way off for many.
I mean local shops can do any work that isn’t EV specific. So suspension, breaks, and even AC work could be done by a reputable local shop. It’s when you have to deal with the battery and other EV parts that can become expensive because the dealership could be the only one in a city that has those with that experience.
Edit: I will also say. If you don’t/cant budget a repair sum to slowly build up in your saving for when your car breaks down. You cant afford that car. If your 10% of monthly income doesn’t include at least, let’s say $100 bucks for a repair fund. It’s not gonna be good investment to own that car.
Good point on repair bills - and it's something we advocated for in our earlier video in the series - Nikki.
Another reason trickle down EV ownership won't work is simple numbers. As society rapidly transition the new vehicle market to EV, there simply aren't enough decade-old EVs in existence to meet demand. They weren't built in 2013 or 2015 or whatever in numbers. They were rare exotic fringe elements of the market. Only 10 years after EVs are the majority or nearly all the vehicles sold (as they are just now in Norway) will the used vehicle market have adequate numbers of older EVs.
Time will present great innovation in the independent EV Mechanic... until then lets learn from Mr. Rossman who is fighting this fight with iphones.
Nailed it. I ride a bicycle to work and drive a 20 year old car if I need to go further. That's an affordable solution to reduce my GHG emissions now. The southern ocean doesn't have 5 or 10 years to wait for payback on EV manufacturing emissions. And all those arguments about payback assume I was planning on forking out for a brand new F150. Can't afford that either.
I'm hopeful that the skills of repairers will improve over the coming years. Our Kia Niro EV is 6 months old and I would like it will last well into its second decade as our old Toyota has.
There is another aspect of this problem visible in the current range of EVs - there is a preponderance of large ones on the market. Too often the new ones being introduced are quite large. For a person with a limited income, and this includes me, buying even a 3rd-hand huge SUV is not a desirable, or viable, solution.
Yes, there are small ones coming out. But the small cars will be a distinct minority of the 2nd or 3rd hand market for some times to come.
Yep been there. Had a second hand 2013/2014 Zoë with Renault official battery upgrade to 40kwh. Battery on lease. 3 phase charging did not work anymore, only one phase charging . Renault claiming that the repair was not covered by the battery guarantee in the battery lease. So I got at quote over 4000 euro. Independent garages to do it in Netherlands very scarce. So we ended up selling it and switch to an private lease contract with an new EV.
While in my mind it can't be more than some dead power rectifiers.
I am a "drive it until it dies" car owner, but also a "fix and learn" guy. I see used EV online but read about the issues Nikki brought up . I just want a basic EV not an iPhone in wheels to try and impress people. Until I can find one, I can repair myself It is the bus for me . I enjoy it for more leisure transportation in town and wish we were not so opposed to central transport in the US.
It's almost like having the profit motive being the main driver behind technological development isn't the best way to go about things
That was a hell of an intro
What can we say? We're particular fans of Abi :)
There is a law (Muggson or something like that) which states that if a manufacturer requires a specific part and only they can supply that part, the part must be provided.
This is why 3rd party parts and lubricants are not a problem.
I don't see why software and diagnostic connectors would not fall under the same umbrella.
This coming spring I will be in the market for a "newish" car...I take care of my cars....but....I live in Texas...and a lot of my driving is long distance...yet...as you mentioned....for a lot of us, prices are pulling away from our wages.
I like and agree with your conclusions for the direction of EV production: parts, software, etc. A more modular approach to building cars would be very helpful, as you mentioned. It would also be so much less expensive for consumers. Thanks
You are not wrong, though sometimes economics are really funny for certain vehicles. In my country, electricity typically range between 0.05-0.15 kWh while petrol / diesel are in the $7-$8 per gallon range. This means the following equation. Assumptions set for worst case for EVs:
ICE Car fuel efficiency: 40 mpg
EV Car fuel efficiency: 2 mpkWh
ICE Car fuel costs: $6 per gallon
EV Car fuel costs: $0.15 per kWh
This means, for every mile you drive, the ICE car costs $0.15 and the EV costs half of that. Every mile you drive, you save $0.075 on fuel costs alone. So what, you say. I only drive 25 000 miles a year. What is a measly $1875 a year going to matter?
If you can take those savings of $1875 and take out a bank loan to buy a new car, let's say a car with interest would cost you $25k. That is a payment year of around 13.5 years, assuming you do not sell this car.
So for no more monthly fees than you are spending now on gas, you would now have an EV instead. Just by shifting how you are spending money. That does not even take in consideration selling the EV and leasing, and the calcultions are easy enough to do yourself.
Aptera might be the only one on the right side of repair. They've promised to send replacement parts in the mail, and to make all repair documentation available for all.
The bigger they get, the more pressure they can put on other companies to treat us with the same respect. I'm pretty sure the framework laptop has already affected the designs of other laptops, and maybe even the steamdeck. It probably inspired Aptera, since they mention it on their website too.
You are right. EV‘s can save a lot of money but repairs can be incredibly costly. I don’t know that I want more people playing around inside the components of an electric vehicle. I would rather have knowledgeable professionals, diagnose, repair, and only replace parts if necessary. I would like to see, an aftermarket business for electric vehicle insurance like you can buy home warranties when you get a new house. Unfortunately, I think we might see these soon, but not all companies will be equally as good. I would gladly purchase a used electric vehicle if there were a way of making sure I didn’t have a bankrupt Able repair in my future.
Governments have not really backed EV’s enough. The profit motive was the only real driver of this change, and of course, the pricing policy of charging “whatever the market will bear” still reigns. The other issue is that even small collisions could render EV’s unsafe, so it’d have to be scrapped, or at least the battery would need to be replaced.
If you have concerns about out of pocket repair costs with an EV, the only safe thing to do is to get rid of it by the time the warranty expires. Either lease a new vehicle or purchase it new and resell it when warranty expiration is approaching.
I know EVs generally have 8 or 10 year battery pack warranties, but there are still a lot of extremely expensive to repair electronic and mechanical parts that are only covered by 3 to 4 year warranties.
I have not seen any EVs with extended warranties available to extend that more than another couple of years. Tesla has an extended warranty available for purchase that adds 2 years or 25K miles of coverage past the basic warranty expiration.
Some automakers such as Toyota and Honda offer extended warranties on ICE vehicles that go as far as 10 years from date of purchase.
I’m thinking of just buying a new 2024 ICE Toyota or Honda with a 10 year extended warranty for now and revisit buying an EV in 2034 when the EV selection is improved with lower prices, much faster charging, and more range in the new vehicles. Plus, public charging infrastructure will be mature by then.
I would like to know what the dos and don'ts of buying a new EV are. Where does the additional cost for the home charger and install get added? Can you finance that? Should you already have that in place before purchasing?
We’re actually working on a new series!
really depends on where you live...some manufacturers will throw in a charger, some states give tax credits, or other incentives for charger purchase...some utilities give you incentives for certain chargers...and you can get a federal tax credit for the install of the charger. So depending on the car, and where you live dictates what and when.
It is best to install a 240 V charger before you get your EV. Although people who have short daily driving habits, less than 30-40 miles, can get by with using a normal 120 V outlet. Check to see if your car comes with a mobile charger, or if you have to add it as an option. Also, I highly recommend replacing your residential-grade 120 V outlet (a $0.89 item), with an industrial-grade or commercial-grade outlet (about $1.95). EV charging puts a continuous high load on your outlet, and residential ones sometimes melt from the heat.
Of course, not everyone has access to somewhere to put a charging station. Two of our team here at TE are renters - and finding a place with a charging station is a challenge, especially at the lower-income level of renting.
In the past, car manufacturers bought parts from vendors. Those vendors were just as willing to sell parts to Autozone as GM. With the Tesla model, manufacturers are making most of the parts themselves, they have no desire to sell those parts to 3rd parties nor desire to continue making the parts after the car is discontinued or a new part developed. Even if independent garages had the knowledge, the parts might not be available anywhere. This is my biggest caveat buying a used EV, from manufacturers that constantly say they this is the end of a vehicle. How many times has GM and Nissan said they were discontinuing the Bolt and Leaf?
Here's an idea that individual communities can adopt to increase EV adoption.
Nikki, I know you're very aware of the Aptera SEV. It is not quite in production yet and the first 'assembly plant' is micro-sized given the competition. That one plant, in a good year, will produce between 10-20 thousand vehicles that for all intents and purposes are designed as generational vehicles.
If you unleash your imagination, could you see a rural electric coop, with the borrowing ability of those entities, entering the SEV business for the benefit of their local communities? I can and here's how it would work.
The coop sets up an assembly plant like the pilot plant Aptera has in Carlsbad. I'm assuming that the coop owns the plant but licenses and hires Aptera Motors to run it. It produces 10,000 vehicles/year and they lease them.
The innovation is that the leases are open ended ... I.e. the lease is offered at a low price per month to 'qualified' individuals ... the qualification being mostly how many miles they drive with those who drive longer distances (commutes) getting preference. The idea is that the SEV removes excess stress on the local grid/service area because the Aptera will collect 90 percent of the energy needed to move the lease holder from the sun meaning the co-op doesn't have to buy juice from outside. Indeed, if they (and they could especially in a lease agreement) use the battery in the leased Aptera for local grid backup, justify the solar vehicle as a sort of alternative generation source of juice they can, if needed, resell to their other customers.
The other aspect that is kind of cool is that by displacing the most miles driven with 'free miles' from the sun, their customers - literally the owners of the coop - would not be spending their hard earned cash on the crap they put in the tank and burn. Using gasoline really is a convoluted way to burn money, you know.
Anyway, because of the low maintenance of the SEV and the proximity of the assembly plant to the vehicles, from what I gather as a long-time follower of Aptera, disassembly to the component level is not only feasible but a real advantage. This comes from the 'right to repair' approach and suggests - especially now with the CPC bodies - these vehicles can be 'remanufactured'/renewed when components become worn or obsolete. Think of this in the context of a long term lease and how one might 'renew' a vehicle to literally 'new' condition. (Not to mention the benefits of recycling/renewing the components.)
The point is this renewable attribute - especially when the design is not centered on planned obsolescence - throws a total wrench in traditional approaches to pricing of leases. (Leases are cheaper than buying because the lease holder is only paying for the use of the vehicle as measured by the depreciation of the vehicle. If a 10-year old Aptera that has 150,000 miles on its million mile motors and has another 10 years on the battery but has new seats, suspension parts, updated computer, etc. and is otherwise indistinguishable from a brand new Aptera in utility, what is the depreciation? Confound that by the fact that if always leased by the same entity - never directly sold - you probably wouldn't have any problem leasing this older example if the price was right.
The bottom line is that this kind of proposition would, say over five years, result in 50,000 vehicles (or more) displacing over a half-billion miles/yr at $1,500 per vehicle per year that is not being sent to the seven sisters. That is money that would stay in a city like Enid, Oklahoma or Columbus, GA where I'm sure the residents would appreciate another $75 million staying in the local community moving around.
The benefit to those at the lower economic levels is these leases are subsidized. Because the vehicles are easily remanufactured and/or repaired, if a customer has a problem, they can get out of the lease and enter into a new lease for another working vehicle or even one with a different color.
Oh, and if fully automated roadways or full self driving (level 5) comes to pass, I figure these little buggers will be upgradable meaning the local coop may own the robo taxi market in those more rural areas where tesla owners and other mega-capitalists wishing to maximize profit won't tread. You know the Edison and other commercial electric companies before the great depression laughed at the idea of rural electrification ... because there was no profit there.
@user-hg4li3zx1x My reading is adapting the grid for more intense use as implied by more EVs, makes the notion of distributed grid storage an option. The suggestion here is the eoop specifies larger batteries (say 600 mile variant) for the lease vehicles. Lease terms imply V2G and allow the utility to pull some charge from the vehicle if and when the power is needed. And it increases the amount of solar power credited as being generated by the entity which probably has some benefits.
You noted the importance of this in rural areas. I think you have to modify that to include suburban. It may seem silly to city folk, but folks living in the very populous Cobb Co. Georgia are largely served by a coop, not Ga power. Beyond that, the problem with suburban areas is the distances involved when each dwelling is 100-400ft from its neighbor instead of the minimal distances in more traditional, high-density urban landscapes.
The 'burbs efficiencies will come with full autonomy and the ease with which Aptera can be 'remanufactured' to upgrade to said full autonomy systems actually makes for a really exciting second life for these vehicles ten to 20 years down the road.
Yep, the member-owned coops could be controlling the suburban public transportation system with fully automated SEVs that plug themselves into the smart grid providing backup power when needed .... all the while also being available to take your early teen to the mall on command.
Frankly, I think the real challenge for Americans is to figure out how climate change impacts suburban development. It has the potential to kill suburbia. The reason is the inefficiencies involved not just with traveling but with the maintenance of the infrastructure from roads to water and sewerage.
The thing to remember is that city life dies if farm to market roads collapse. People are going to live where they want to.
What questions should I ask if buying a low mileage 2021 Bolt Premier?
Hi! We did a video on this a while back! ruclips.net/video/WJEP4gDUNyc/видео.htmlsi=XRUu2jRo003-QLnx - Nikki
Good points made in this video, minus the public transit nonsense.
Reparability is why NET combustion tech will make EVs obsolete. NET can last for 900,000 miles and be repaired by an average person. Not so with EVs.
I love this channel! ❤🎉😊
There's also the problem of lower income people being less likely to have a place to charge their EV at home overnight, which is a huge part of the practicality and economic benefits of an EV in the first place
FYI. On ICE diagnostic tools, thee connectors are the same between various vehicles but you must pay for extra software for another auto brand.
Out of warranty car-ownership is a giant gamble, and third-party extended warranties are often a scam ... there should probably be something more like Insurance ... especially for more expensive components like the battery pack.
I think another issue you missed is that people wanting a cheap EV find that there just aren't many old EVs available because very few were made 10 years ago. Even now, only 10-20% of new cars are EVs, so in 10 years, there will be a lot of people chasing those cars (and a lot of ICE cars that no one wants).
I grew up back when the transit system in STL went almost everywhere working people needed to go. At various times I took the bus to high school, college, and work. Back then, kids could go all over the City unchaperoned on the bus.The system in STL is now a shell of what it once was. It is a token so the wealthy can say, "See, there's transportation for the poor." There was always walking to and from bus stops, facing rain, snow, bitter cold, deadly heat. The last time I took the bus to work, it took an hour and a half, a transfer to another line, a half-hour wait between buses, and a total of two hours. The same trip took 10 minutes by car. All people, especially working people, door-to-door personal transportation -- a car.
A trap
I bought a Kia EV 6 with 7 years garantie general, and 8 years for the battery. This should help.
You make some interesting and thought-provoking comment having worked in the development of automotive diagnostics most of my working life I found it very frustrating that legislated diagnostics only ever covered the detection of emissions and safety related faults on cars and were no way useful in diagnosing down to the component level. Without access to manufactures diagnostics and training even good car mechanics would be guessing most of the time as to what the failure was and, in most cases, this would be based on a history of knowledge built up of likely component failures. ICE vehicles generally fail because of predictable wear on components. I suspect EVs will not and vehicle mechanics without specialized equipment and training are not going to survive the transition. Yes, it would be good if legislation forced car manufacturers to open up diagnostics to cover detection of faults at the component level, but I suspect after 30 years of this not happening in the ICE domain I’m guessing it won’t happen for EVs, politicians are just not going to understand the problem.
I think battery storage and recycling could play a role here. at what point are people / companies willing to extract the battery and sell it to a power company or would the car company just recycle the car and produce a newer version? will used EVs really be a thing?
Differences between socialism, communism, capitalism, and fascism - I suggest taking an introductory PoliSci course at an accredited educational institution.