This Mateo played Baseball in salinas high owned the Violin very proud of you Mateo i met Mateo in Mission Park school we was like 11 and we went to Washington middle school and after salinas high school , this man is a brain
Excellent episode as always! Very interesting and at the same time very secretive about any real numbers… So I guess I have two questions / comments: 1. Is the 20 USD/kWh the cost of a cycle assuming a certain amounts of cycles and life time (i.e. what you need to have compensated to amortise your Capex?) Or is it the capex per kWh of storage? If it is Capex, then this is quite expensive as it is “only” maybe half the price per MWh of current utility-scale Li-Ion-based projects (which are rough rule of thumb 500 USD/MWh for a full turn-key 2h EPC solution, but include way more/expensive transformers/power electronics, as the peak power is usually 50% of the MWh capacity and not 1% of the MWh capacity). As LFP cells are around 100ish USD/MWh (cell cost, not system), I am pretty sure you could almost build a 100h LFP BESS at similar costs if your electrical balance of plant only needs to have 1% peak power power electronics / transformers etc… 2. It is correct to look at system costs but at the same time, you need to have a path to finance and if there is no long-haul storage capacity market, but only “normal” Energy market designs (i.e. energy-only, capacity, etc…) it will be hard to fund these projects unless you are a rate-based utility in the US that does system-modelling and then just passes the cost over to the rate-base. It will be very hard to get projects funded in Europe for example unless investors want to take on a sort of long term merchant storage risk, which I doubt… Which brings me to the question, has there been an episode with someone who has specific policy experience in, lets call it “bankability of electric market design”? Preferably on both sides of the Atlantic? Nonetheless, all the best, the more competition the better the results!
100hours is good, I was concerned that the short duration battery tech was never going to fill those 'dunkelflaute' periods. But looking at the UK weather patterns it appears we still need 200hr and 300hr storage for the most difficult spells. I suppose 2 or 3 Iron Air units in tandem will do the job if it's economic. There may just have to be a high cost solutions to these short periods of high prices. Different geographies will have a variety of low renewable production periods when demand is high and have to find their own way to solve them.
Let's be clear: you CAN store energy for a MONTH in Li ion batteries. What you can't do is afford those kWh when they come back out again, because the capital cost of the batteries is too high. So you need to cycle them more frequently. Form's proposition is that although they're not that cheap YET, they MIGHT be cheap enough in the long term to discharge (and charge) over periods of up to 100 hours. With an efficiency "less than 50%" (40% is what I've just today seen in writing), you'll be buying 2.5 kWh and getting only 1 back again PLUS you've got to pay (today) $100/kWh for the batteries (current retail price of LFP prismatics is about the same- $100/kWh) with the hope that someday they'll drop to $20/kWh. I'd say that I'm hopeful but not optimistic, if you catch my drift.
Great talk- - but how did you go through that whole interview without asking about efficiency? It can be cheap per kWh stored, but it had better be cheap per kWh of RETURN capacity or else each kWh returned will still be expensive. Form hasn't publicly released its cycle efficiency anywhere I can find, and it is extremely important to know how good this tech actually is.
Aha- finally after 55 minutes- "about 50%", but from Michael's mouth, later, "a little less than 50%". And he says they've optimized between capex and round trip efficiency in a mathematical model. Fair enough...but we need some figures in order to judge...
@@MLiebreich I think you meant "cost", not "first". And the reality is that all you care about is cost per returned kWh (which will depend on efficiency and capital cost), and what you can sell each kWh for and how often (which will depend on cycle life, stability when charged and a host of other things). Efficiency matters, but it's one of many things which matter. If there were public data available about all these things- which there is, for instance, in relation to CATL's sodium ion batteries, then there'd be a basis for our own analysis. But since there isn't- at least that I can find- we have to take Mateo's word for it. He says they've optimized everything down to a gnat's @ss, but all I can say in reply is, "well, if you say so". I wish them well, but there are other chemistries out there who will give them considerable competition.
Would have liked to have heard how Mateo's thoughts on micro-nuclear-reactors. *IF* those can produce power on demand, it seems you wouldn't need multi-day-storage, or charging/un-charging (rusting/un-rusting) at $20/kwh!
Very enjoyable to hear Michael being cheeky and joking at times 😊. Very interesting episode.
You should have the CEO of ESS, an iron flow battery company, to add to this conversation
And to not even mention it in this interview...odd.
This Mateo played Baseball in salinas high owned the Violin very proud of you Mateo i met Mateo in Mission Park school we was like 11 and we went to Washington middle school and after salinas high school , this man is a brain
Excellent episode as always!
Very interesting and at the same time very secretive about any real numbers… So I guess I have two questions / comments:
1. Is the 20 USD/kWh the cost of a cycle assuming a certain amounts of cycles and life time (i.e. what you need to have compensated to amortise your Capex?) Or is it the capex per kWh of storage? If it is Capex, then this is quite expensive as it is “only” maybe half the price per MWh of current utility-scale Li-Ion-based projects (which are rough rule of thumb 500 USD/MWh for a full turn-key 2h EPC solution, but include way more/expensive transformers/power electronics, as the peak power is usually 50% of the MWh capacity and not 1% of the MWh capacity). As LFP cells are around 100ish USD/MWh (cell cost, not system), I am pretty sure you could almost build a 100h LFP BESS at similar costs if your electrical balance of plant only needs to have 1% peak power power electronics / transformers etc…
2. It is correct to look at system costs but at the same time, you need to have a path to finance and if there is no long-haul storage capacity market, but only “normal” Energy market designs (i.e. energy-only, capacity, etc…) it will be hard to fund these projects unless you are a rate-based utility in the US that does system-modelling and then just passes the cost over to the rate-base. It will be very hard to get projects funded in Europe for example unless investors want to take on a sort of long term merchant storage risk, which I doubt…
Which brings me to the question, has there been an episode with someone who has specific policy experience in, lets call it “bankability of electric market design”? Preferably on both sides of the Atlantic?
Nonetheless, all the best, the more competition the better the results!
100hours is good, I was concerned that the short duration battery tech was never going to fill those 'dunkelflaute' periods. But looking at the UK weather patterns it appears we still need 200hr and 300hr storage for the most difficult spells. I suppose 2 or 3 Iron Air units in tandem will do the job if it's economic. There may just have to be a high cost solutions to these short periods of high prices. Different geographies will have a variety of low renewable production periods when demand is high and have to find their own way to solve them.
There’s more discussion on dunkelflautes in ep122, and in the related report they delivered that the episode is based around. Well worth a watch.
Let's be clear: you CAN store energy for a MONTH in Li ion batteries. What you can't do is afford those kWh when they come back out again, because the capital cost of the batteries is too high. So you need to cycle them more frequently. Form's proposition is that although they're not that cheap YET, they MIGHT be cheap enough in the long term to discharge (and charge) over periods of up to 100 hours. With an efficiency "less than 50%" (40% is what I've just today seen in writing), you'll be buying 2.5 kWh and getting only 1 back again PLUS you've got to pay (today) $100/kWh for the batteries (current retail price of LFP prismatics is about the same- $100/kWh) with the hope that someday they'll drop to $20/kWh. I'd say that I'm hopeful but not optimistic, if you catch my drift.
Se ve muy viejo🎉
Great talk- - but how did you go through that whole interview without asking about efficiency? It can be cheap per kWh stored, but it had better be cheap per kWh of RETURN capacity or else each kWh returned will still be expensive. Form hasn't publicly released its cycle efficiency anywhere I can find, and it is extremely important to know how good this tech actually is.
Aha- finally after 55 minutes- "about 50%", but from Michael's mouth, later, "a little less than 50%". And he says they've optimized between capex and round trip efficiency in a mathematical model. Fair enough...but we need some figures in order to judge...
TBF, all you really care about is cost, which we talked about a lot. Efficiency is only a proxy.
@@MLiebreich I think you meant "cost", not "first". And the reality is that all you care about is cost per returned kWh (which will depend on efficiency and capital cost), and what you can sell each kWh for and how often (which will depend on cycle life, stability when charged and a host of other things). Efficiency matters, but it's one of many things which matter. If there were public data available about all these things- which there is, for instance, in relation to CATL's sodium ion batteries, then there'd be a basis for our own analysis. But since there isn't- at least that I can find- we have to take Mateo's word for it. He says they've optimized everything down to a gnat's @ss, but all I can say in reply is, "well, if you say so". I wish them well, but there are other chemistries out there who will give them considerable competition.
Mateo 🎉 Salinas Ca
Did you compare to ESS? Did you even ask? Um...Michael...
Would have liked to have heard how Mateo's thoughts on micro-nuclear-reactors. *IF* those can produce power on demand, it seems you wouldn't need multi-day-storage, or charging/un-charging (rusting/un-rusting) at $20/kwh!
You were not there Mateo with the powertrain
Hes an ordinarily business man which his upstart wont go anywhere
He lucky walked away with over 15 million in stock
If heas all this stock from Tssla why not him be a risk taker and do it?
Ive been looking at Mateo padt 3 yrs and he hasnt done nada 🎉
Hes my age 46 he looks sooooo olld
Hes lost his hair
He sucked at Baseball ⚾️ but his grades got him to starter
Mateo dad was a lawyer and his mom teacher and always played the violin 🎻 🙄 😒 😑
Canelo Alvarez is probably worth more
He hasn't made any cash
Big nose like his daddy lawyer
Esta feo