At the start of 2024, there was jubilation in Somaliland over an agreement that looked likely to open the way for Ethiopian recognition. That is now in tatters. But was it ever a serious option? It always seemed that Ethiopia was less committed to recognition than Somaliland believed. More broadly, how do people in Ethiopia and Somalia regard this latest development? Will it lead to a historic agreement? Or will the talks go nowhere? Let me know your thoughts and comments below.
The reason one clan enclave separatists Somaliland will fail is because of SSC-Khaatumo State in northern Somalia. You should make an episode about SSC-Khaatumo. Maybe you will understand the power dynamics in the horn. Good luck
I'm not from Khatumo state but Somali you have pinpointed very well if 1/2 of the Dir tribe ( southern Dir tribe are not included )can make a country how many countries will exist in Somalia and Africa in general
@JamesKerLindsay Somalia doesn't any obligation to give Ethiopia sea access Ethiopia made it self landlocked. You western countries already divided historical lands of the Somali people to Ethiopia and kenya and we will not accept any further division. If Ethiopia wants to invest our ports and import goods from them they are welcome but never a military base or naval base to somali coastal areas.
I notice you don't mention what this means for the Ethiopian agreement with Somaliland. Is that agreement now off or does Ethiopia's agreement with Somalia mean that that agreement is still on but now Somalia rather than Somaliland will control that new port?
@@JamesKerLindsay with the new developments in the red sea in relation to the corridor being unstable because of Houhtis of Yemen, US and UK might go for recognizing Somaliland. If Trump made this happen as it is being rumored, this would probably be a golden opportunity missed by Ethiopia. It seems Ethiopia is in a dilemma, as it needs access to the sea, but doesn't want to offend either side. Somalia and Somaliland have unresolved issue that makes the equation complex.
So just because you have been brainwashed by the West or religion, you can deny access to the seaport for over 130 million of the population. Just because you go by calling yourself Somali? not realizing the same people you deny seaport from are your own brothers and sisters. What was Somalia called in 1800? or Ethiopia? Go to Harari in Ethiopia or Jijiga and tell people over there that you are denying them the seaport and you do not want them to trade and be able to move forward in life. Africans learn your history before you start speaking nonsense. A country is nothing but a business registered as a corporation with a flag and its president. Your passport is your registration papers that prove that you belong to the corporation. As slaves & plantations belong to their owners. Same rules here. Nothing has changed. Just new strategies called democracy. You can never identify yourself as a corporation. Have you ever heard someone call themselves Microsoft or Apple just because they work for these corporations? Learn politics and understand UCC laws and business. The colonizers are still ruling Africa and playing games of politics, and the African population is running along as zombies. Without the understanding of a thing.
I am glad some people leave thankful and pleasant messages for Dr Ker Lindsey. His channel has been repeatedly mobbed by angry and incredibly rude nationalists and their propaganda operations lately. I lost my temper with them recently and had to restrain myself. I just hate seeing someone throw their hard work and genuine expertise into public k education videos, only to be insulted by mobs of angry idiots.
As a person who's been rooting for Somalia, I'm starting to see how ridiculous it all is. I mean how can you claim territory you have zero control over lmao. Maybe Somaliland were right all along - although they need to stop their aggression and atrocities against those who refuse to join them
@keifer7813what makes you think somali government can’t project authority on northern minority regions perhaps you don’t understand Somali culture and politics since fall communism country became federal government what we see what is happening now federalism won’t work in long term northern western secessionist region rhetoric will make Mogadishu to press for control in north and expel secessionist elements.
No Somalilander with a shred of dignity should place their trust in southerners. The entire concept of a “federal” government was a deliberate scheme to undermine Somaliland’s sovereignty. This was done by creating new states and then attempting to frame Somaliland as just another state among the Somali regions. If the government in Mogadishu were genuinely committed to unification with Somaliland, it should begin by abolishing all so-called "federal states" within its territory. Only then could meaningful negotiations take place between Somaliland and Somalia - not with a "federal" entity, but on equal terms.Somalilanders have been deceived before, but they will not be fooled again - recognition or not!
@keifer7813 The people of Somaliland and their political elites will determine their own sovereignty. No illegitimate authority in Somalia has power over the people of Somaliland. They alone decide who their leaders are. Like the former Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, and USSR, Somalia is in the throes of its demise. The government in Mogadishu has sold off all its assets-and effectively, the country-to the Turks. The latest agreement in Ankara has erased the last vestiges of any semblance of a functioning state. The so-called “technical” team assembled to negotiate with Ethiopia is there to sell off what remains of Somali sovereignty. They might as well rename the country "Turksom”.
Really appreciated for briefing summarizing the current affairs situation in the horn of Africa , specially between Somalia and Ethiopia. I hope both Countries will be supporting each other to benefit from this peaceful negotiation. Thanks P/r
The problem in your analysis is that you are not clearly stating that Mogadishu Administration is confined to small area in the capital with either no or weak authority over federal states in Somalia..
@JamesKerLindsay i think it is still too early to conclude with that assessment.. Turkiye President will travel to both Addis and Mogadishu in either Jan or Feb 2025 for this.. Ethiopia didn't state that they had backed down from their agreement with Somaliland as it stands now yet..
@@abdinaaleeye1471 the problem with your analysis is you are claiming territory you don’t even control 50% of! Las Anod revolted, and now Erigabo! Next Berbera will revolt and you have nothing but a one clan enclave.
Thanks guys this man trying to telus what his government believes and he always besides Ethiopia propaganda media, he have to know that Somalia is one nation
How did Ethiopia lost all access to sea via Eritrea, surely they should have negotiated access sea, giving Eritrea all the coastal area and making the huge country like Ethiopia landlocked country shocking agreement
@@muratalkiner7791 i explain to you in Easy way. During mengistu Haile Mariam regime eritrea fought with TPLF (Tigray people libeation front) to kick out the regime. They won and the TPLF became ruling party in ethiopia and in sign of gratitude they recognized Eritrea as indipendent. They were a party based on ethnic proud of Tigray region and not nationalist ethiopian proud so They didnt give sh1t about ethiopias access to Sea because they tought eritrea wouldve let ethiopia use its ports. In 1998 TPLF went to war against eritrea over a border dispute between Tigray region and Eritrea and After the war Eritrea closed its ports til today. So the reason Is that Tplf made ethiopia landlocked and made ethiopia have bad relationship with eritrea.
Agree! The truth is, Ethiopia willingly gave up its strategic Red Sea coastline in Assab when the TPLF government allowed Eritrea to secede in 1991. How can a country relinquish such a vital asset and now lament its landlocked status? Ethiopia lost its access to the sea with Eritrea’s secession and also failed to reclaim Djibouti after a century-long deal with France. Global powers like the U.S., the Arab states, and the EU played their part in ensuring Ethiopia remained landlocked-a geopolitical failure that continues to haunt the nation. Looking at a map, it’s clear how close Ethiopia is to the sea and how Eritrea’s borders were deliberately shaped to trap Ethiopia inland-a colonial strategy by Italy that still cripples the nation. Despite never being fully colonized like other African nations, Ethiopia bears an unbearable colonial legacy, worsened by poor leadership and anti-Ethiopian sentiment from its neighbors. The West, too, plays a role in keeping the Red Sea out of the hands of a stronger regional power, fearful of Ethiopia’s potential dominance over this crucial maritime route. Ethiopia faces a monumental challenge in regaining access to the sea, whether by convincing the West to change their stance or finding alternative means. One thing is clear: it cannot continue in this landlocked limbo forever.
@@ftsunion8365 Calling a 30 years revolutionary war “in sight of gratitude” is just false. No one gave Eritrean people their freedom, they war for 30 years and own. If you spor this video back to or so you can see how far the Eritrean people come to take full control of their country before soviets get involved and kicked them back. TPLF weren’t in any position to give or take you’re mistaken. As a matter of fact TPLF didn’t kick out the derg, Eritrean and soviets downfall did. Mengistu Haile Mariam said has he known that the Eritrea just want their country and not to take control of all Ethiopia he wouldn’t have fought them for 13 years and gave them their freedom willingly, he said that after he run to Zimbabwe search it.
@@aanshow who do you think gave Eritrea to Ethiopia in 1952? I gave you a hint he was a white man. Before colonialism there was a country named abissinya but Abissinya didn’t control the same borders as today’s Ethiopia. So what history teaches us is western helped Ethiopia gain more land and not vise versal.
I think one critical thing people forget is the independence of Eritrea. Eritreas independence cut off Ethiopian access to the coast. Also, if Eritrea was able to declare independence because it was a separate colonial entity from what became Ethiopia, then many would argue somaliland has a strong case for independence given it had separate colonial boundaries from the rest of Somalia.
Diffrence is Somaliland dont controll the territory they claim early 2023 a part of so called somaliland left since they got opressed by the gov in hargeisa. That territory todays is called scc khatumo en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khatumo_State
4:23 let me correct you. Ethiopa alone did not defeat Somalia in 1977 war. Ethiopia, Israel, USSR, East Germany and Cuba combined defeated Somalia alone, like the Allies in WW2 defeated Germany.
The tension between Somalia and Ethiopia is not limited to the issue of "access to the sea," but is driven by deep historical, religious, and strategic factors rooted in the existence of a fault line between Ethiopia, with its highlands and Christian majority, and Somalia, with its vast plains and Muslim population. Additionally, there is a growing Somali perception that Addis Ababa is pursuing a plan to fragment Somalia with the aim of seizing its sovereignty, territory, and resources, which is reinforced by Ethiopia's control over the western Somali region of Ogaden. While Turkey understands the depth of the crisis between the two countries, it will work to contain it and prevent it from escalating to the level of war. A fundamental solution requires the cancellation of the Ethiopian memorandum of understanding with Somaliland and coordination with Mogadishu to use any Somali ports solely for commercial purposes; without this, the crisis between the two countries will resurface later.
For sure hell of a war is coming up between these two nations. just like historically that have past. but resolving the issues diplomatically is a one step of progress at the moment
Turkiye also understands the contemporary worldwide geopolitics prominence of the Somaliland proper and the Eprdf mou agreements to go through forward AND the impact and the importance involved even for Turkiye also. The Somaliland proper and the Eprdf geopolitical dynamics are too great to ignore.
In all honesty this only postpones the troubles to come in the future. Somalis will never allow their land and people to remain 0cc/pied similar to other situations around the world.
Simply given that the AU is headquartered in Addis, one can imagine that authorities in Hargeisa may have envisioned a possible domino effect of recognition across the continent.
Somaliland deserves international recognition. It currently has more legitimacy as an independent state than South Sudan, East Timor or Eritrea had at the time of their proclamations.
@@mahadljama4578 the majority of somaliland don’t won’t unite with Somalia again and the fight in sool and sanaag erea is based on clans who fight but somaliland at least have control and peace over 75% of somaliland and they have elections in the whole country sool sanaag togdheer waqooyi galbeed and awdal can Somalia so do that no can ethopia do that no can sudan or Eritrea do that no every country in the world have their problems but that don’t men they can’t be a country somaliland was only like 30 years part of Somalia and it was them who joined they on their will and they want to take back their country and all clans come together 1991 to build somaliland and be their own state they was before so somaliland has history they are not like puntland Somaliland is part of the five somali states not the five regions u guys have now
@ haha somalia is not even part of muqdisho government adna somaliland ayaad sheegaysa somalia wax la dhaho maanta ma jirto xamar iyo 4 kilomètre miyaa isheegi jubaland ayaan Somalia ka mid ahayn o aysan xamar maamulin adna somaliland o 1991 tagtaybaad sheegaysa adeer somaliland wa lahaaya document 📃 ay xornimada ku qaadatay iyo dalalki aqoonsadayba aqoonsigan somali haysato ba waxa Iska lahayd somaliland wlhi Somalia meel sharci ah o lagu aqoonsaday maba jirto aqoonsigi somaliland ayunba la si waday o lagu midoobay hadana maraykan iyo caalamka ayaa nakala saaraya afti xataa Hadi la rabo in somaliland diyaar lakinse somaliland ma ahan puntland iyo jubaland e wa state iyo dal ka mid ahaa shanta Somali cadayna waxa kugu filan xidigta shanta gees e ku taala calan kasto somali leedahy taas o sheegaysa in ay siman yihiin Somalia somaliland Djibouti iyo labada kale Kenya iyo ethopia haystaan leedahy puntland iyo jubaland hadi ay somaliland la mid yihiin
Somali land is literally a functioning democratic example that Middle East could take as a lead example . The other Somalia is currutip af civil war broken
I am surprised you presented the invasion of Somalia by the TPLF regime and their partners in crime the US in 2006 as a positive event. Somalia under the Islamic Courts was gradually returning to normality and peace and justice was promoted. The US saw this as a threat and used their client state Ethiopia to destroy this hope of peace and normalcy after 15 years of chaos. Actually Until the invasion there were NO Al Shabab terrorists in Somalia as this terrorist organisation was established as a resistance to this invasion. Also during this invasion thousands of civilians were killed and millions displaced. The mission of this invasion was to carry out a regime change and you know this so please don’t insult our intelligence. Also this invasion was not approved by the UNSC so it was an illegal war of aggression. After the invasion almost all of the leaders of the Islamic courts leaders were cherry picked to lead the puppet government The same client state of the TPLF regime was tasked with carrying out a regime change in Eritrea in May 1998 as instructed by the US but failed miserably. Finally why didn’t the US or the UK try to mediate between Ethiopia and Somalia before Turkey took the initiative?
@@abshirismaiil3334 somalis need to stop talking about israel. YOU can believe whatever you want but to paint yourself as a threat is asinine. xooolo behavior. Keep your opinions private
There is nothing called “Somaliland”. It is an illusion. The area is divided into three sections. Only the Isack clan inhabiting the central part is pushing for and promoting this agenda. The people on the east and the west of that territory have no nothing to do with the secessionist project. On August 25, 2023, the people in the eastern section freed their land from the secessionist entity. Previously, the Makhir people on the north-east went their way and now rule their territory. God willing, Awdal state on the western side will soon be free from the grip of the secessionist group.
Definitely not a breakthrough! 99 percent of Somalia are against these talks . It will never be fulfilled ! Ethiopia is not disliked more than ever since that Abiy guy
The short answer to your question is no. Because Ethiopia isn't after a commercial port to develop its ailing economy, but a naval base in Somali waters. This has been a dream passed down generations for the Ethiopians. However, to dream, you need to sleep first.
Love from Turkey to all the people and ethnicities of the horn of Africa ❤ and thanks to you professor to give us a clear context from the past for a better understanding of today 🙏🏻
The greatest enemy of both Somalia and Ethiopia was Siad Barre, whose unjustified invasion of Ethiopia led to Somalia’s collapse and the fragmentation of the Somali Republic. While his vision of a Greater Somalia made sense from a Somali perspective, his methods were flawed and strategically misguided. As an Ethiopian, I would support a united Somalia, but Ethiopians and Kenyans view it as a significant threat to their territorial integrity. The real solution is to unite the entire Horn of Africa as a federated nation, where people can come together without threatening one another. This would create a large market, strong military, and shared security, avoiding future conflicts. It is the only viable path forward.
@@aanshow unjustified invasion of ethiopia? how is it unjustified to liberate the Ogaden/Galbeed somalis from the ethiopian oppressive regime? u lying habesha
and somalis will never accept a united horn we would rather perish than to unite with our enemies that worked with european colonisers and kidnapped our land and people
@@Dr21030 Because you cannot just go into another nation with an army and try to annex a peace of land. Siad had his chance at the African union to reclaim ogaden but they decided Ethiopia will keep it as many countries also had border issues similar to this. Siad should have accepted it but he was too deluded and 50 years later his country is paying the price.
@@thomasal2487 It was okay for ethiopia to take over ogaden during the 19th century but it is a problem when somalia wants to take back ogaden. Your comment reeks of hypocrisy.
Back at 2:36 - that African map breakdown, what source did you use for that? Finding accurate maps like this can be fairly difficult if you don't know where to look.
It must be so annoying for Ethiopia to be so large and to somehow just barely not have access to the sea. I hope they can find a peaceful solution via Somaliland.
It remains a stab in the heart. 😢 the most painful part in the history of Ethiopia was the day we gave away the sea. Can not be explained what the Ethiopian representatives was thinking at the time. We had all the leverage against Eritrea back then. They are all dead now. We may never get the answer.
Please arrange an interview with Professor Markus Virgii Hogehe, who has spent the past twenty years observing and being present in northern Somalia. He has witnessed the realities of the region, particularly the activities and perspectives of secessionist movements. His firsthand experience in these areas could provide valuable insights into the ongoing dynamics between those advocating for secession and the unionist to Somalia's unity. Such an interview would help shed light on the realities on the ground and the complex narratives surrounding northern Somalia.
As Somalis we have to be honest Somalia is just another state in Ethiopia they are rulling us and sadly we have rulers who are playing along with it how can you let their soldiers still be in Somalia after Ethiopia literally wanted to recognize the separatists as a country they showed us they with that action they don’t really want to help Somalia but keep it fragmented.
If Ethiopia supports Somaliland independence then just like it allowed Eriteria to break away would they be keen to allow Somali inhabited region which was in the recent past fighting guerilla war to secede?Colonial boundaries are the source of conflicts everywhere but may be either peacefully agree to seperate or follow AU agreements supporting respect for boundaries as gained at independence
There is a major issue with your analysis, Ethiopia did not forgo the Somaliland MoU as you stated, there was simply no mention of it in the Ankara declaration. This major issue was picked up by The Economist, you can read Tom Gardner's piece on it (link below). Your analysis is missing key factors that led Somalia to change positions. Up until the Ankara meeting, the Somalia president Hassan Sheikh refused to talk to Abiy until Ethiopia declares it had gone back on the MoU. So what forced the change? You have to look at the defeat of Somalian troops in Kismayo at the hands of the local warlord of Jubaland Ahmed Madobe coupled with pressures from the northern regions of Somalia in Puntland, that forced the hands of Somalia and made Ethiopia's position much stronger. The last issue was the fact that all observers agreed Ethiopian peace keeping troops were not going to leave as requested by Somalia in December, so this declaration was a dignified way for Somalia to appear to be in control instead of waiting till January and having no way of explaining why Ethiopian troops are still there. For Somaliland, you also missed a major point when you say they are the biggest losers. If you keep track of Somaliland news you would have known that a major push for Somaliland's recognition is coming from the US, where many commentators are saying Trump has this on the agenda for Africa, in addition to the introduction of a bill to recognise Somaliland in the US Congress as of 12/12/2024. I normally like your videos James but this one is just missing many key issues and delivers a simplistic view of whats a deeply complex and fast changing landscape.
I didn’t miss it. The fact that it wasn’t overtly stated is irrelevant. It was implicit in the agreement. Ethiopia simply can’t accept Somalia’s sovereignty within its international boundaries, and also recognise Somaliland. The two are fundamentally incompatible. A state can’t recognise two separate sovereign authorities over a single territory. (My area of academic specialisation is state recognition.) Any agreement will therefore necessarily be a repudiation of the Somaliland agreement. And this declaration signals that this is the direction that Ethiopia is taking. As for US recognition, let’s wait and see. It may happen. It may not. Trump is fickle and unreliable. If it does, it will be certainly huge news and a major win. And Ethiopia may then reconsider - much to Ankara’s anger. Until then, this has to be read as a defeat for Somaliland.
@@JamesKerLindsay Your statement about Ethiopia simply being unable to accept Somalia's sovereignty and also recognise Somaliland lacks one main bit of info; in July of this year Abiy Ahmed made an identical statement to what was included in the declaration about "commitment to Somalia's territorial integrity" (link below from Ethiopia's Broadcasting Corp.) and that was still rejected by Somalia. What was significant about making the same statement in the Ankara declaration? Answer: Nothing. The fact that the MoU was not stated in the agreement explicitly, as also discussed by The Economist, is a major issue precisely because the Somalian administration made repeated statements in the months leading up to the Ankara declaration that it will not sit with Abiy until he publicly backs down from the MoU. That Somalian redline was ignored by Abiy and they still sat with him. If you follow whats happening in Somalia and the defeat of Somalia's army in Kismayo you would have not come to the conclusion of your video. Now onto the meat of what was exchanged in Ankara: On the one hand, Somalia conceded commercial port access, it also did a 180 and is now allowing Ethiopian military presence to remain in Somalia, something unthinkable just a few weeks ago. On the other hand Ethiopia was only willing to make a statement about accepting Somalia's "territorial integrity", on the surface this would appear meaningful (I think this is your argument), but as stated above Abiy made an identical statement in July via EBC (link below). So the real loser in all of this is Somalia who compromised on almost all of its redlines with little to gain besides a statement already made by Abiy in July. What was lacking in your analysis was deeper insight into what each side wanted, and what they got; you framed it as a loss for Somaliland, and yet Somaliland did not lose anything from this deal given that nothing has been said about their MoU.Somalia is now to contend with continued Ethiopian presence and participation in peace keeping mission beyond their remit, plus sea access in return for virtually nothing. If you follow Somali social media you would have seen the backlash against Hassan Sheikh. I do not doubt your expertise regarding state recognition, but if all it took to defuse the situation was Abiy accepting Somalia's territorial integrity then there would be no need for the Ankara declaration since the Somalian side would have accepted the July statement. With regards to Trump, he is indeed fickle and unreliable, another point to make here is that all this talk about him recognising Somaliland is coming from outsiders and not from him or people in his admin, so one cant get too excited about it, but the one thing we also know is Trump is very petty, and he does not like Ilhan Omar, so might actually go ahead with it just to spite her and her Somalian supporters. ebc.et/english/newsdetails.aspx?newsid=7124
Professor, could you please discuss, How Eritrea was granted its independence from Ethiopia through the signature of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, even though it was not approved by the FDRE Parliament? The Ethiopian constitution clearly states that any law not approved by Parliament cannot be put into action. Additionally, could you explain the legal basis if Ethiopia were to attempt to reclaim Eritrea, considering this? Thank you.
Thanks. This was a truly fascinating story. I made a video on it many years ago. But regarding your questions, there’s not much that can be done now. Under international law it has achieved its independence. It’s a full member of the United Nations. Even if Ethiopia now argued that its secession was wrong under Ethiopian law, it wouldn’t make a difference at this stage. What’s done is done.
Somalis in eithopian colony should get independent rather than so called somalia which is part of greater somalia and will remain part of it. Abiye is living in dream come reality.
Ethiopia knows what to do. Do not worry, we have our rivers that can produce food, raise animals, generate electricity. They are our best cards to play with some of our greedy neighbors!!
As a Somali , its very simple, respect our boundaries we will respect your boundaries, we don't have any grey area and we don't care these man made laws that serve only for one group. We have the right to shut down the American embassy and open Russian embassy and no one can say anything about it. We don't interfere anybody's business.
@Magumbo58 this is the same reason France colonized you and still colonises you. I said , "we can do whatever we want" You can only do what France wants.
You are just saying things 😂 dude you are living in a dream, wake up ,Somalis always boast and exaggerate but in real world things are different. Just look what going inside inside Somalia and then compare to your neighbors country.
6:40. With all due respect, Professor, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in Mogadishu 2006 was not the Islamist (which often insinuates extremist) group it was portrayed to be. It was formed by local communities seeking a justice system, and the leaders of these courts recognized the need for a united central authority, which led to the creation of the ICU. They were the Somali people's first hope for stability, ending the decades-long civil war. The ICU achieved what seemed impossible-they established a central authority in Mogadishu and reopened both the international airport and commercial port. Despite their efforts to demonstrate their nationalist goals, the international community ignored them. While there were some extremist elements within the ICU, they were contained. However, when the international community, fearing their Islamic identity, supported the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia, these extremist elements seized the opportunity. They framed the conflict as a holy war, giving rise to Al-Shabaab.
Initially, it was not at all about securing access to the sea on the Ethiopian side, since there was access via Djibouti, Kenya and a free port via Eritrea, but this agenda came about because the United Arab Emirates wanted to get close to the Redsea.
@@abassadan2541I think you're misunderstanding here man!. What you're calling SSC is actually part of Somaliland. Inshallaah, I believe that one day, the people will support each other instead of fighting over tribalism, and we will be like we were before😊.
You don't know your own history. It's a sad thing that Somaliland hasn't developed it's educational system in the last 30 years. It's clans have been fighting a cold war and the corrupt presidents all became multimillionaires. Even the Isaaq people amongst themselves can't seem to work together. The only reason there has been some development is because of foreign investors/diaspora.
What it means, for a start, is that Ethiopia's government is increasingly clearly Muslim-tinged. The Christians of Ethiopia have lost control of their own country.
Get lost with your bs...Ethiopia is land of Native Religions and imported....in Ethiopia even in one family you can find different religions practices....we are not somalia that if you are not mohammeddian you are not somali
This guy reminds me of the engineer from "There's Something About Mary", regardless I am proud of my brothers and leaders for choosing development and cooperation as an alternative to mistakes of the past antagonising each other. Yane Wende. 💐
Ethiopia having coastal access (of some sort) is the umbrella issue. If Ethiopia brokers access with Eritrea (long odds) or Djibouti (almost as long odds) Somaliland is left out in the cold.
Your presentation is good but you are wrong to say Ethiopia has lost sea access. Eritrea has given them free and cheaper access . But Ethio is looking to have a military base which is impossible to get from any East African countries. That state is belligerent in its entire history!
Many thanks, Professor. Jim. As usual, the analysis is really thorough. I recently sent you an email on the genocide in Gambella, Ethiopia, asking for your advice or recommendations. I'd appreciate it if you could reply.
Great video but you should have included Ethiopias enourmous influence in the south of Somalia. Regional leaders there, in areas such as in Gedo, South West State, and Jubaland have publically exclaimed support for Ethiopia over Egypt in direct opposition the federal government. Ethiopians have been involved with the security of these regions working alongside these regional leaders, sometimes operating without the permission of the central government and apart from ATMIS. This is factor that likely pressured Somalias president to resolve things diplomatically before Egyptians arrived where swathes of the country would have been hostile to them! If you'd like sources I can provide them
That requires some nuance though. Ethiopia never surrendered, the resistance fighters fought throughout the Italian occupation, de facto Italian control was limited outside of major cities and Italian sovereignty over Ethiopia was rejected by most of the world.
@sundiataq None of that changes the fact Italy conquered the country. They don't need to control every little town or city. Surrender is also not a prerequisite.
@keifer7813 Italy's attempt to colonize Ethiopia ended in total failure, and was never even recognized by most of its peers, which is why, I'm assuming, the professor referred to it as "never formally conquered". It's like you try to take over someone's house, but the whole time the homeowner is still there with the deed in his hands.
@@sundiataq It's an insignificant distinction though because the Taliban aren't formally recognised as the ruling power of Afghanistan by the international community, but they clearly are. It doesn't matter what the world thinks. Its about the reality on the ground. They conquered the country
I was surprised when you said 'Ethiopian Army HUMILITY'! 👀 The Somali National Army (SNA) in 1977 Somalia defeated Ethiopia, and Mangistu and Ethiopia Army couldn't Denfend their country, so he went Soviet Union to Defend Ethiopia🇪🇹 from Somalia🇸🇴 and to stop SNA fighters lighting war advanced. 1978 Somalia faced a #coalition war of socialist countries, including Cuba,🇨🇺 Libya 🇱🇾, South Yemen, and Soviet Union. This coalition Soviet Union put all the effort tanks jet fighters and more malicious, and they sent 1500 generals and military advisers, led by Vasiliy Ivanovich Petrov, Marshal of the Soviet Union. They also received support weapons and political from Israel, North Korea, West Germany, and other socialist countries. This was a coalition war against a single country: SOMALIA!🇸🇴."
Somalia 🇸🇴 doesn’t have problem renting a port to Ethiopia 🇪🇹 but the problem comes from the military base that they are going to get in Somaliland which means Ethiopia and Israel have close ties due to Ethiopian Jews so the problem comes as Israel is trying to get a base there to fight the houthies and Ethiopia let’s Israel to use that military base to fight against Yemeni houthies who are very close to that base just few kilometers of water separating them so once that fight starts and houthies start launching rockets and drones more Somalis will die so no military base but just port deal as long as they pay
Prof James with all due respect, your are still beating around the bush when it comes to the current conflict issue between Somalia and Ethiopia. First, Ethiopia has long history and political culture of being an old empire with expansionist and irredentist ambitions, where it has annexed many nations, nationalities and diverse ethnic groups in East Africa region. Among the prime victims are Somalis themselves where a big chunk of their native land, and with the immense help of European colonialists, was incorporated into its territory in the middle of 20the century and it still occupies. So resentment was always there and palpable under the surface. Even after Somalia became independent in 1960 things didn't improve a bit. Second, Somali land clan enclave is not a country per se nor it is noman's land but region which is part and parcel of Somalia's sovreign territory. So you shouldn't be dwelling on any notion of being a legal entity and existing country. Therefore, referring to it as the norther separatist region of Somalia or whatever is rightly applicable in its current status. The only problem existing now is that one clan among 5 native clans is attempting to illegally break away from mother country of Somalia. Third, as far as current tension between Somalia and landlocked Ethiopia is concerned, it is not even an equal and inter-state legal contest over reasonable issue or normal dispute but about an outright agression and one-side driven conflict in which Ethiopia is trying hard to wrestle over legit sovereign territory of Somalia by force to occupy and then annex and not necessarily for sea access needs, commercial use or anything but for military and other nefarious geostrategic reasons and exploitation scam. It is doing so through manipulation and bogus scheme in coordination with seperatist clan in that particular region. Basically. Ethiopia is trying to meddle Somalia's internal issues by the said illegal scheme as an opportunity for geostrategical benefit at the expense of Somalia's sovereignty and thereby compromising its territorial integrity. Fourth, as for the latest agreement in Ankara between the two sides, it is going to the right direction but there are also serious doubts about the commitment of the erratic and immature Ethiopian leader and how long this diplomatic detente could last. If the past record is anything to go by, he is not trustworthy fellow with anything under the sun. This is not over yet untill it is over. Don't also forget the unholy role and scheme done by proxy actors and foreigners behind the scene of pimping, fueling conflict and pushing the issue as the currupt and notorious regional conflict profiteer of the Arab Emirates often does.
@@TheRealBozz Somaliland people got long history than Somalia people. I think that's the reason they're more civilised than the other Somali's. A history that begins from the kings of Egypts to Somaliland (the land of punt), where the people of Somaliland and Egypt had a great trade.
@@rarelife1 Historians say that Somaliland and the Egyptian kings/queen had a great deal of trade. Before the Egyptian queen Hatshepsut, and after her time. Punt was a land rich in products Kemetians desired such as myrrh, frankincense, woods, sweet-smelling resin, ivory, spices, gold, ebony, ivory and aromatic trees. Scenes of this expedition can be seen at her Mortuary temple Djeser-Djeseru at Deir el Bahri. (This is where the Sanaag region of Somaliland is located today). What evidence do you have that the people living in the south Somali's have a long history with the kings and queens of Egypt?
The question that no one has answered yet is why Eithopia needs sea access from Somalia? Ethiopia already has better sea access through Djibuti and Djibuti has also offered another sea access to Ethiopia where it will have a total control of the port? Even if Ethiopia wants a naval port which it has no right to ask, why doesn't it ask Djibuti which is likely to give it?
I agree with Erdogan's decision to support the rebels in Syria but I don't agree with his so called peace negotiations between Ethiopia 🇪🇹 and Somalia 🇸🇴 that could set back Somaliland's independence.
Hi James! Love your videos. I’d like to read a regular newsletter about global politics/int’l relations/conflict. Besides subscribing to Foreign Policy etc, are there any sources you’d recommend, perhaps Substack newsletters/individuals who are particularly insightful? Thanks a lot.
It’s important to acknowledge that discussions about Somaliland and Somalia often evoke strong emotions due to historical and political contexts. While this agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia may be seen as a win-win for the involved parties, it’s crucial to respect differing perspectives and ensure constructive dialogue that fosters understanding and cooperation. Viva the somaliland republic 4 ever
I think these agreement would have not been any results because we know Ethiopia didn't want commercial purpose and if so, they have been using berbera port and also Djibouti offered them port in tojoura but they don't want it abiye Ahmed making all these things is that he is facing internal conflict and rebels
This rapprochement will be short lived, and in my opinion not genuine on Ethiopia's side. Somaliland's cause is gaining serious momentum and is expexted to gain international recognition soon. I dont think Ethiopia will put its bet on Somalia, a divided country where most of its territory is controlled by al shabab. Furthermore, the new deal between Somalia and Ethiopia has no foundation as Mogadishu doesnt control all the land, and there is no infrastructure that links Addis to the indian ocean.
You are spreading fake news? 70 percent of the country is free from Al Shabab now! I'm from Somaliland and against independence around 60 percent I represent that are against. This false narrative that all of Somaliland supports independence is nonsense
@@theancientsancients1769 you must be darood lol somaliland is already independt the only thing they looking is for recognition from the world also ye your your right most of the states does't have al shabaab is only the south and a little some states
@@theancientsancients1769are u sure that 60% are agains somaliland independent 😂😂 diyaar ma utahay in afti laga qaado shacabka somaliland o dhan xagay ubataana la aado kulaha 60% are agains somaliland haday saas tahay mabay jirteen adeer and u sow the elections ka dhacay gobol kasta o somaliland ka mid ah o cadayn u ahaa in somaliland mid tahay lascaanod iyo laba tuulo qabiil dartiis uga cararaaya mooye harti somaliland degen o dhan hal milyan ma gaadhan o wlhi ah waxa ka badan inta burco degen bes hargeisa Iskaba daaye hargeisa kali ah ayaa afti laga qaadi karaa iyo intaad sool iyo sanaag ka degto e hartiga hargeisa kali ah ayaa ka badan misaad leedahay 60% somaliland ma rabaan somaliland 1991 Aya lagu heshiiyey adeerada baana saxiixay waxaanad ka degta wa 20% waxaan gaadhin adeer e calaacal waliga hargeisa laga maamulaya xamarna saxaraha cidna ma rabto sa waxba malaga faaidayo dadkaagiba bariis dhacay isku laynaaya baahi darteed wax so saar malaha dhulkaagu dekedo ma leh airport iyo ganacsi iyo maal qabeeno ma leh 1 milyana ma gaadhid xagaad aadi ya ku baahan😂😂😂
I subscribe to your channel not only because your content is outstanding, but also due to the respectful and humble way you ask us to like and subscribe. Thank you!
Ethiopia knows and Somalis knows this deal will never happen, Somalis never ever be a friend with biggest enemy of our Land which we fight Last 1000 yrs, and even different riligion, 😢😢
The highlanders occupy the biggest junk of Somali land that the British government illegally annexed to them.the the European colonists left but the Ethiopians are around still.they know this and we know this,and until they leave there won’t be true peace
Your video provides some valuable historical insights; however, it omits several crucial aspects of the current situation in Somaliland and Somalia. For instance, it fails to address the ongoing conflict within Somaliland, which is a significant factor in understanding the region today. Many people in Somaliland do not support the push for independence and instead advocate for a stronger, united Somalia. Ignoring this perspective misses an important part of the narrative. Additionally, your depiction of Ethiopia's role in Somalia seems overly favorable, presenting them as a savior or consistent ally. This characterization doesn't fully account for the complex dynamics between neighboring countries, including rivalry, interference, and the exacerbation of clan issues. Historically, regional players have often pursued their own interests, sometimes stoking divisions rather than fostering unity. If you attempted to draw the current map of Somaliland, it would likely be challenging due to the ongoing conflict and the lack of a clearly defined or stable boundary. The war and disputes over territory are critical elements that should have been highlighted. While the first half of the video appears historically accurate, the latter portions fail to capture the complexity of the current situation in Somaliland and Somalia. Incorporating these elements would provide a more balanced and comprehensive view for the audience.
Türkiye will give the necessary security there. Türkiye has the biggest military base in Somalia and recently made a security agreement with them to protect the sovereignity of the country supporting Somalia' s development, security and stability with many investment and education programs after the last civil war. Ethiopia also is a friendly nation to Turkiye. Turkiye have many investments there also. Ethiopia' s stability merge and development will be supported by Türkiye in all means. No chaos, wars and suffer in the region created for the sake of Israel and their allies benefits!
Check your history. Ogden region was under British control until 1954, when the British handed it over to Ethiopia. In 1963, the NFD KENYA was formed, despite the fact that 83% of Somalis voted to join Somalia. However, Kenya still annexed them. You also forgot to mention that Ethiopia received assistance from Russia, Cuba, Libya, and Yemen. Additionally, the West refused to sell weapons to Somalia.
Without somaliland taking initiative and pooling there assets together to form a administrative government for the north. So called SSC would have been a refugee camp and the same as the Ogaden region. The supporters of the SSC should join there neighbourly brothers who had been feeding them and stabilising them all these years and contribute to there region instead of being a disturbance to the greater goal of bringing financial and political stability to the great ancestral lands we share
We are Somali and we are one family ,we can’t change our name,culture and traditions… before colonialism we call our land Dhulkeena or Gayigeena means our land and i am sure we will unite one day…..
Ethiopian here. Ethiopia giving recognition to Somaliland before any other nation is againist the very notion of the old adage 'those inside glass houses should never throw stones'. Ethiopia under its current constitution is an 'ethnic bantustan' where secession is a constitutional right of every ethnic enclave. You can imagine what is in store for Ethiopia after such a short sighted and frankly stupid diplomatic decision.
iam from somali, Ethiopia will never get our sea, and one day we will get back our territory, and our city harar. as reality the war between somali and Ethiopia has long history and will never end . one day our dream become reality.
Since when the need of sea access for Ethiopia has become the responsibility and business of Somalia and the talking heads of other dishonest and sneaky foreigners? It is courtesy and neighborly business etiquette things and dealing, not an obligation and absolutely right. And there are clear international rules and regulation guidelines in place to follow of how landlocked countries deal with and get sea outlet through the maritimes of neighboring countries in the world. No more, no less.
I dont get why many people think the somali government only controls the capital, the current map of control from the wiki highlights the somali governments contested control of southern somalia, alongside puntland which has joined as a federal state.
What do you make of recent speculation that Trump will recognize Somaliland, in part to annoy a certain Congressional Democrat and in part for strategic positions to continue to deal with the Houthis in Yemen?
Thanks. This is a potentially huge development. A true game changer. If anyone could do it, it would be Trump. But I think there would be a lot of disquiet over the move.
@@joshuawells835 So is Djibouti and the Houthis don't control the Gulf of Aden coast of Yemen only the Red Sea coast where the attacks are happening. Djibouti also has coast on the Red Sea, Somalia doesn't. I don't think Trump can use that justification. And the other one just sounds insane.
Because Jibouti will force to sign with legal and internationally binding bilateral agreement that forbids to claim the port and its lands in case Ethiopia tries. But Somali land would not be able to do such legality things. It is self help and sel-servng scheme and illegally murky territory. It sees it as no noman's land and once the deal is done with the local clan like colonial past used to do, it can twist the deal, deny it and can change the way it wants and eventually can claim the land as its own legally. Worse yet, no one in the rest of the world would be able do anything about . It is done deal and kiss of death bye bye. Abiy has already publicly stated his goal.
The greatest enemy of both Somalia and Ethiopia was Siad Barre, whose unjustified invasion of Ethiopia led to Somalia’s collapse and the fragmentation of the Somali Republic. While his vision of a Greater Somalia made sense from a Somali perspective, his methods were flawed and strategically misguided. As an Ethiopian, I would support a united Somalia, but Ethiopians and Kenyans view it as a significant threat to their territorial integrity. The real solution is to unite the entire Horn of Africa as a federated nation, where people can come together without threatening one another. This would create a large market, strong military, and shared security, avoiding future conflicts. It is the only viable path forward.
@@aanshow Said Barre didn't divide Somalia into five parts. It was problem created and left by colonialists including Haile Selasse of Ethiopia. Every Somali leader was trying and struggling to fix the issue since 1960 and Siad Bare was only one of them. Bottom line: Somali people are victims but not culprits and aggressor as Ethiopia and other enemies try to make us beileve . And I found some people start believing that brainwashed Stockholm syndrome and propaganda BS of only if we could keep quit we would have been safe. Well no, that can't and won't happen and what the war torn Ethiopia is doing now is the proof.
No need for that. Just cease any claims on Somali maritime territory. Have an open border with Somalia for the free movement of people and goods between Somalia and Ogaden and work together on regional security. A federation with 120 million Ethiopians is never going to happen.
@moeawale4891 I totally agree with you that the whole problem started with colonialism. So that takes the original sin. But dnaying the fact that Said Barre invaded Ethiopia in an attempt to create the greater Somalia makes you either ignorant of the historical fact or you are deliberately trying to twist the fact. Either way, he failed and was defeated and could not be able to keep the federation state of Somalia. Bro, that is naked fact. If we need change, we must be genuine. As for Ethiopia, it is an ancient country that has effectively defended its existence and faith. It's resilence is a gift of God. The people of Ethiopia, not its puppet politicians of the West, are resilient and love their neighbours. Many somalis lived in Addis freely and as they wish. Nobody ever made them feel they are foreigners or told to go back to where they come from, as told to the Senator of USA, who is from Somali origin. Please, the hate you have to Ethiopia is unfair and there is no reason for that.
Professor, the Somali Republic never came into legal existence. That’s the crux of the whole dynamic amongst Somaliland and Somalia. There have been numerous legal scholars who’ve spoken on this. In addition to this, the AU did a fact finding mission and concluded there was never a union and that Somaliland had independence and that its case was unique. Somaliland had been annexed and militarily occupied. The root cause of Somalia’s issues is Somalian irredentism and clan based expansionism. Please increase your literacy on this matter.
Very useful, you educated me in understanding that the MoU has died, however I thought the Red Sea was important for Ethiopia. Can you explain to me how Mogadishu Can give Ethiopia an access to the Red Sea without Hargeisa allowing
Good information except not mentioning what Somaliland is at all. The Somaliland that you mention is started the sameway you mention. After 1977 Ethiopia created this somaliland, Puntland (SSDF) and (USC) what is now in Mogadisho call whatever you like. And when Eretria moved out of Ethiopian hands, they immediately found the successionist in where Berbera their main target was. That is the Somaliland Ethiopia going to recognize ( inherit the sea). But what you didnt want to mention is Where is what was previously known The British Somaliland Protectorate. 50% of that is out of what Ethiopia signed the MOU with them. And no one asked the rest of people near Berbera if it is right Ethiopia to do what it did to Eretria who shares them with religion, Similar language and closer ethnicity than Berbera inhatitant. The issue is Ethiopia looking new Eretria around berbera!
As always, Prof. James's presentation has always been nonbiased and to the point. Remember he or anyone else writes what they observe and possible outcome of any invents. And therefore, Journalist like prof James duty is not take make anyone happy or sad; meaning they don't take any side.
Why wouldn't the UN propose to Ethiopia, Somaliland and Somalia to enter negotiations around the idea of forming a federation. That would resolve Ethiopia's concern and reunite all Somali in one (federal) state ? Together the three would profit more of such a Union than remaining each in their respective corner... No ?
@@SelamEthiopia_2017 but that is not somalia's problem, Somalia is independent country, if you like swimming welcome to our sea but 5:00 am it's close time.
@abassadan2541 What was Somalia doing for those 30 years? Somaliland used those 30 years to build a functional state without outside help. 30 years later Somalia is heavily reliant on others to build their country. Don't you find it a little embarrassing to see secessionists be more competent than the internationally recognised and UN-funded Somalia
It 30 years Somaliland is still 5 times more poorer than. Somalia😂. No wonder it's not recognized. Somalia has improved in last 3 years than Somaliland in 30 years...look at Gpd and national debt along with development, Somaliland is behind ...30 years and still the poorest region
@@The-Heart-Will-Testify You are aware that despite lack of international recognition Somaliland has achieved more than Somalia. The only reason Somalia is walking is because it's heavily reliant on other countries army's (peace keepers) Somalia is only richer because it is part of the international community an has access to extra funds. Somalia being richer than Somaliland is still struggling to keep it's capital safe. Meanwhile Somaliland dose that with less money and fewer resources.
At the start of 2024, there was jubilation in Somaliland over an agreement that looked likely to open the way for Ethiopian recognition. That is now in tatters. But was it ever a serious option? It always seemed that Ethiopia was less committed to recognition than Somaliland believed. More broadly, how do people in Ethiopia and Somalia regard this latest development? Will it lead to a historic agreement? Or will the talks go nowhere? Let me know your thoughts and comments below.
The reason one clan enclave separatists Somaliland will fail is because of SSC-Khaatumo State in northern Somalia.
You should make an episode about SSC-Khaatumo. Maybe you will understand the power dynamics in the horn. Good luck
I'm not from Khatumo state but Somali you have pinpointed very well if 1/2 of the Dir tribe ( southern Dir tribe are not included )can make a country how many countries will exist in Somalia and Africa in general
@JamesKerLindsay
Somalia doesn't any obligation to give Ethiopia sea access Ethiopia made it self landlocked.
You western countries already divided historical lands of the Somali people to Ethiopia and kenya and we will not accept any further division.
If Ethiopia wants to invest our ports and import goods from them they are welcome but never a military base or naval base to somali coastal areas.
I notice you don't mention what this means for the Ethiopian agreement with Somaliland. Is that agreement now off or does Ethiopia's agreement with Somalia mean that that agreement is still on but now Somalia rather than Somaliland will control that new port?
@@JamesKerLindsay with the new developments in the red sea in relation to the corridor being unstable because of Houhtis of Yemen, US and UK might go for recognizing Somaliland. If Trump made this happen as it is being rumored, this would probably be a golden opportunity missed by Ethiopia. It seems Ethiopia is in a dilemma, as it needs access to the sea, but doesn't want to offend either side. Somalia and Somaliland have unresolved issue that makes the equation complex.
I am from somaliland. And I speak all somali people Ethiopia will never ever get our sea somalia nor somaliland it's that simple
Brother it’s too late
Well said my brother from Somaliland region of Somalia. Greetings from Jubaland
@@AdamAli-n5d why ....
You are not using it
I think you're forgotten or not in Somalia b/s the holle soulo of either the go'v or the pp is on the hands of Ethiopia .
So just because you have been brainwashed by the West or religion, you can deny access to the seaport for over 130 million of the population. Just because you go by calling yourself Somali? not realizing the same people you deny seaport from are your own brothers and sisters. What was Somalia called in 1800? or Ethiopia? Go to Harari in Ethiopia or Jijiga and tell people over there that you are denying them the seaport and you do not want them to trade and be able to move forward in life.
Africans learn your history before you start speaking nonsense. A country is nothing but a business registered as a corporation with a flag and its president. Your passport is your registration papers that prove that you belong to the corporation. As slaves & plantations belong to their owners. Same rules here. Nothing has changed. Just new strategies called democracy.
You can never identify yourself as a corporation. Have you ever heard someone call themselves Microsoft or Apple just because they work for these corporations? Learn politics and understand UCC laws and business. The colonizers are still ruling Africa and playing games of politics, and the African population is running along as zombies. Without the understanding of a thing.
I love how you cover the Horn of Africa! Thank You Prof James
Thank you so much. It is such a fascinating region. One of the best things about doing the channel has been learning about the area.
@JamesKerLindsay you're biased towards Ethiopia it seems.
I am glad some people leave thankful and pleasant messages for Dr Ker Lindsey.
His channel has been repeatedly mobbed by angry and incredibly rude nationalists and their propaganda operations lately.
I lost my temper with them recently and had to restrain myself. I just hate seeing someone throw their hard work and genuine expertise into public k education videos, only to be insulted by mobs of angry idiots.
@@Hkaffiok look. They've showing up already.
@@Hkaffi No he is not
What does it even mean to make an agreement with the Somali government? Do they have any authority outside of Mogadishu?
You must be joking
@@mrniceguy7168 No they don't
They can't even control the Jubbaland region in the Kismayo area, Somalia is a country only on paper
….. where do you think Somaliland actually is
As a person who's been rooting for Somalia, I'm starting to see how ridiculous it all is. I mean how can you claim territory you have zero control over lmao. Maybe Somaliland were right all along - although they need to stop their aggression and atrocities against those who refuse to join them
@keifer7813what makes you think somali government can’t project authority on northern minority regions perhaps you don’t understand Somali culture and politics since fall communism country became federal government what we see what is happening now federalism won’t work in long term northern western secessionist region rhetoric will make Mogadishu to press for control in north and expel secessionist elements.
No Somalilander with a shred of dignity should place their trust in southerners. The entire concept of a “federal” government was a deliberate scheme to undermine Somaliland’s sovereignty. This was done by creating new states and then attempting to frame Somaliland as just another state among the Somali regions. If the government in Mogadishu were genuinely committed to unification with Somaliland, it should begin by abolishing all so-called "federal states" within its territory. Only then could meaningful negotiations take place between Somaliland and Somalia - not with a "federal" entity, but on equal terms.Somalilanders have been deceived before, but they will not be fooled again - recognition or not!
I agree the federal system must go! It’s the cause of destruction in the country.
What sovereignty? Somaliland had no sovereignty after unification. That's the whole point. You give up sovereignty when merging with other entities
They have no right to self determination, the British can’t give you a country
@keifer7813 The people of Somaliland and their political elites will determine their own sovereignty. No illegitimate authority in Somalia has power over the people of Somaliland. They alone decide who their leaders are. Like the former Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, and USSR, Somalia is in the throes of its demise. The government in Mogadishu has sold off all its assets-and effectively, the country-to the Turks. The latest agreement in Ankara has erased the last vestiges of any semblance of a functioning state. The so-called “technical” team assembled to negotiate with Ethiopia is there to sell off what remains of Somali sovereignty. They might as well rename the country "Turksom”.
@@mombasa7 That's completely irrelevant to your initial point but okay
Really appreciated for briefing summarizing the current affairs situation in the horn of Africa , specially between Somalia and Ethiopia. I hope both Countries will be supporting each other to benefit from this peaceful negotiation. Thanks P/r
The problem in your analysis is that you are not clearly stating that Mogadishu Administration is confined to small area in the capital with either no or weak authority over federal states in Somalia..
Thanks. You are right. The government certainly isn’t in control. In this case, though, the key thing is that Ethiopia has changed its position.
@JamesKerLindsay i think it is still too early to conclude with that assessment.. Turkiye President will travel to both Addis and Mogadishu in either Jan or Feb 2025 for this.. Ethiopia didn't state that they had backed down from their agreement with Somaliland as it stands now yet..
@@abdinaaleeye1471 the problem with your analysis is you are claiming territory you don’t even control 50% of! Las Anod revolted, and now Erigabo! Next Berbera will revolt and you have nothing but a one clan enclave.
Dont forget The Ethiopian government has no control over Tigray region, Oromia region and Amhara. Ethiopia is sadly in a civil war!
Thanks guys this man trying to telus what his government believes and he always besides Ethiopia propaganda media, he have to know that Somalia is one nation
How did Ethiopia lost all access to sea via Eritrea, surely they should have negotiated access sea, giving Eritrea all the coastal area and making the huge country like Ethiopia landlocked country shocking agreement
@@muratalkiner7791 i explain to you in Easy way. During mengistu Haile Mariam regime eritrea fought with TPLF (Tigray people libeation front) to kick out the regime. They won and the TPLF became ruling party in ethiopia and in sign of gratitude they recognized Eritrea as indipendent. They were a party based on ethnic proud of Tigray region and not nationalist ethiopian proud so They didnt give sh1t about ethiopias access to Sea because they tought eritrea wouldve let ethiopia use its ports. In 1998 TPLF went to war against eritrea over a border dispute between Tigray region and Eritrea and After the war Eritrea closed its ports til today. So the reason Is that Tplf made ethiopia landlocked and made ethiopia have bad relationship with eritrea.
Agree!
The truth is, Ethiopia willingly gave up its strategic Red Sea coastline in Assab when the TPLF government allowed Eritrea to secede in 1991. How can a country relinquish such a vital asset and now lament its landlocked status? Ethiopia lost its access to the sea with Eritrea’s secession and also failed to reclaim Djibouti after a century-long deal with France. Global powers like the U.S., the Arab states, and the EU played their part in ensuring Ethiopia remained landlocked-a geopolitical failure that continues to haunt the nation.
Looking at a map, it’s clear how close Ethiopia is to the sea and how Eritrea’s borders were deliberately shaped to trap Ethiopia inland-a colonial strategy by Italy that still cripples the nation. Despite never being fully colonized like other African nations, Ethiopia bears an unbearable colonial legacy, worsened by poor leadership and anti-Ethiopian sentiment from its neighbors. The West, too, plays a role in keeping the Red Sea out of the hands of a stronger regional power, fearful of Ethiopia’s potential dominance over this crucial maritime route.
Ethiopia faces a monumental challenge in regaining access to the sea, whether by convincing the West to change their stance or finding alternative means. One thing is clear: it cannot continue in this landlocked limbo forever.
@@aanshowLOL
@@ftsunion8365 Calling a 30 years revolutionary war “in sight of gratitude” is just false.
No one gave Eritrean people their freedom, they war for 30 years and own.
If you spor this video back to or so
you can see how far the Eritrean people come to take full control of their country before soviets get involved and kicked them back.
TPLF weren’t in any position to give or take you’re mistaken. As a matter of fact TPLF didn’t kick out the derg, Eritrean and soviets downfall did. Mengistu Haile Mariam said has he known that the Eritrea just want their country and not to take control of all Ethiopia he wouldn’t have fought them for 13 years and gave them their freedom willingly, he said that after he run to Zimbabwe search it.
@@aanshow who do you think gave Eritrea to Ethiopia in 1952? I gave you a hint he was a white man.
Before colonialism there was a country named abissinya but Abissinya didn’t control the same borders as today’s Ethiopia.
So what history teaches us is western helped Ethiopia gain more land and not vise versal.
I think one critical thing people forget is the independence of Eritrea. Eritreas independence cut off Ethiopian access to the coast. Also, if Eritrea was able to declare independence because it was a separate colonial entity from what became Ethiopia, then many would argue somaliland has a strong case for independence given it had separate colonial boundaries from the rest of Somalia.
Diffrence is Somaliland dont controll the territory they claim early 2023 a part of so called somaliland left since they got opressed by the gov in hargeisa. That territory todays is called scc khatumo en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khatumo_State
he has made a few videos about this.
It's not as simple as that. Otherwise it would have happend by now.
@@hyperbeast134 But didn't Khatumo state declare separation from Somalia too? Pretty sure something like that happened
@keifer7813ssc or khatumo wants to be recognised as federal state.
4:23 let me correct you. Ethiopa alone did not defeat Somalia in 1977 war. Ethiopia, Israel, USSR, East Germany and Cuba combined defeated Somalia alone, like the Allies in WW2 defeated Germany.
More about this topic, thanks
Thanks. I hope to return to it when I can.
The tension between Somalia and Ethiopia is not limited to the issue of "access to the sea," but is driven by deep historical, religious, and strategic factors rooted in the existence of a fault line between Ethiopia, with its highlands and Christian majority, and Somalia, with its vast plains and Muslim population. Additionally, there is a growing Somali perception that Addis Ababa is pursuing a plan to fragment Somalia with the aim of seizing its sovereignty, territory, and resources, which is reinforced by Ethiopia's control over the western Somali region of Ogaden. While Turkey understands the depth of the crisis between the two countries, it will work to contain it and prevent it from escalating to the level of war. A fundamental solution requires the cancellation of the Ethiopian memorandum of understanding with Somaliland and coordination with Mogadishu to use any Somali ports solely for commercial purposes; without this, the crisis between the two countries will resurface later.
For sure hell of a war is coming up between these two nations. just like historically that have past. but resolving the issues diplomatically is a one step of progress at the moment
Now Ethiopia 🇪🇹 60 % or more because of baby boom.
Turkiye also understands the contemporary worldwide geopolitics prominence of the Somaliland proper and the Eprdf mou agreements to go through forward AND the impact and the importance involved even for Turkiye also.
The Somaliland proper and the Eprdf geopolitical dynamics are too great to ignore.
@ 👏
In all honesty this only postpones the troubles to come in the future. Somalis will never allow their land and people to remain 0cc/pied similar to other situations around the world.
Simply given that the AU is headquartered in Addis, one can imagine that authorities in Hargeisa may have envisioned a possible domino effect of recognition across the continent.
😂😂poor
That is true a wolf with shell sheeps
Somaliland deserves international recognition. It currently has more legitimacy as an independent state than South Sudan, East Timor or Eritrea had at the time of their proclamations.
How can they deserve when they are inside conflict and now two groups are fighting right now pro and against union of Somalia
@@mahadljama4578 the majority of somaliland don’t won’t unite with Somalia again and the fight in sool and sanaag erea is based on clans who fight but somaliland at least have control and peace over 75% of somaliland and they have elections in the whole country sool sanaag togdheer waqooyi galbeed and awdal can Somalia so do that no can ethopia do that no can sudan or Eritrea do that no every country in the world have their problems but that don’t men they can’t be a country somaliland was only like 30 years part of Somalia and it was them who joined they on their will and they want to take back their country and all clans come together 1991 to build somaliland and be their own state they was before so somaliland has history they are not like puntland Somaliland is part of the five somali states not the five regions u guys have now
Somaliland is part of somalia under mogadishu government
@ haha somalia is not even part of muqdisho government adna somaliland ayaad sheegaysa somalia wax la dhaho maanta ma jirto xamar iyo 4 kilomètre miyaa isheegi jubaland ayaan Somalia ka mid ahayn o aysan xamar maamulin adna somaliland o 1991 tagtaybaad sheegaysa adeer somaliland wa lahaaya document 📃 ay xornimada ku qaadatay iyo dalalki aqoonsadayba aqoonsigan somali haysato ba waxa Iska lahayd somaliland wlhi Somalia meel sharci ah o lagu aqoonsaday maba jirto aqoonsigi somaliland ayunba la si waday o lagu midoobay hadana maraykan iyo caalamka ayaa nakala saaraya afti xataa Hadi la rabo in somaliland diyaar lakinse somaliland ma ahan puntland iyo jubaland e wa state iyo dal ka mid ahaa shanta Somali cadayna waxa kugu filan xidigta shanta gees e ku taala calan kasto somali leedahy taas o sheegaysa in ay siman yihiin Somalia somaliland Djibouti iyo labada kale Kenya iyo ethopia haystaan leedahy puntland iyo jubaland hadi ay somaliland la mid yihiin
@@Ahmed-tu5wm Somalia is not a country.
Somali land is literally a functioning democratic example that Middle East could take as a lead example .
The other Somalia is currutip af civil war broken
Sleep buddy . You are still behind
We can live a just life without fighting, as long as one is not greedy.
I am surprised you presented the invasion of Somalia by the TPLF regime and their partners in crime the US in 2006 as a positive event. Somalia under the Islamic Courts was gradually returning to normality and peace and justice was promoted. The US saw this as a threat and used their client state Ethiopia to destroy this hope of peace and normalcy after 15 years of chaos. Actually Until the invasion there were NO Al Shabab terrorists in Somalia as this terrorist organisation was established as a resistance to this invasion. Also during this invasion thousands of civilians were killed and millions displaced. The mission of this invasion was to carry out a regime change and you know this so please don’t insult our intelligence. Also this invasion was not approved by the UNSC so it was an illegal war of aggression. After the invasion almost all of the leaders of the Islamic courts leaders were cherry picked to lead the puppet government
The same client state of the TPLF regime was tasked with carrying out a regime change in Eritrea in May 1998 as instructed by the US but failed miserably. Finally why didn’t the US or the UK try to mediate between Ethiopia and Somalia before Turkey took the initiative?
well said bro, these yt people are the dvl.
@@kidanemariameyob8752 they see Somalia as a threat and somalis are very religious do they might pose a threat to Israel
yup
@@abshirismaiil3334 somalis need to stop talking about israel. YOU can believe whatever you want but to paint yourself as a threat is asinine. xooolo behavior. Keep your opinions private
@@GusWayne-u5h I'm Just saying facts here
There is nothing called “Somaliland”. It is an illusion.
The area is divided into three sections.
Only the Isack clan inhabiting the central part is pushing for and promoting this agenda.
The people on the east and the west of that territory have no nothing to do with the secessionist project.
On August 25, 2023, the people in the eastern section freed their land from the secessionist entity. Previously, the Makhir people on the north-east went their way and now rule their territory.
God willing, Awdal state on the western side will soon be free from the grip of the secessionist group.
Definitely not a breakthrough! 99 percent of Somalia are against these talks . It will never be fulfilled ! Ethiopia is not disliked more than ever since that Abiy guy
Thanks Professor for laying the facts straight. Such reports are not so common these days thank you once again
Thank you very much. I hoped it might provide a useful summary of the relationship.
The short answer to your question is no. Because Ethiopia isn't after a commercial port to develop its ailing economy, but a naval base in Somali waters. This has been a dream passed down generations for the Ethiopians. However, to dream, you need to sleep first.
I enjoyed the video tnks prof James for info
Thank you!
i like how you provide us a takeaways-news in horn of Africa especially Somali Ethiopian conflict upon sea.
Thank you. It is such a fascinating region. It doesn’t get enough international attention.
@@JamesKerLindsay what about FANO, OLA, and pending war for Assab
TÜRKİYE always support peace and common interest in world ...................
😂
@@Patriarchy_69 really... we are most peacefull country in the world.....
@@vizibilibende5194 🤣😆
@@Patriarchy_69 why you are smile?? 😂... Turkiye only a small Balkan country
Love from Turkey to all the people and ethnicities of the horn of Africa ❤ and thanks to you professor to give us a clear context from the past for a better understanding of today 🙏🏻
@@semihengin6051 amour de la Turquie🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Very well said. Thank you, sir.
That's a darn shame that the Taiwan of Africa is about to be removed from the map
The greatest enemy of both Somalia and Ethiopia was Siad Barre, whose unjustified invasion of Ethiopia led to Somalia’s collapse and the fragmentation of the Somali Republic. While his vision of a Greater Somalia made sense from a Somali perspective, his methods were flawed and strategically misguided. As an Ethiopian, I would support a united Somalia, but Ethiopians and Kenyans view it as a significant threat to their territorial integrity. The real solution is to unite the entire Horn of Africa as a federated nation, where people can come together without threatening one another. This would create a large market, strong military, and shared security, avoiding future conflicts. It is the only viable path forward.
@@aanshow unjustified invasion of ethiopia? how is it unjustified to liberate the Ogaden/Galbeed somalis from the ethiopian oppressive regime? u lying habesha
and somalis will never accept a united horn we would rather perish than to unite with our enemies that worked with european colonisers and kidnapped our land and people
@@Dr21030 Because you cannot just go into another nation with an army and try to annex a peace of land. Siad had his chance at the African union to reclaim ogaden but they decided Ethiopia will keep it as many countries also had border issues similar to this. Siad should have accepted it but he was too deluded and 50 years later his country is paying the price.
@@thomasal2487 It was okay for ethiopia to take over ogaden during the 19th century but it is a problem when somalia wants to take back ogaden. Your comment reeks of hypocrisy.
Back at 2:36 - that African map breakdown, what source did you use for that? Finding accurate maps like this can be fairly difficult if you don't know where to look.
It must be so annoying for Ethiopia to be so large and to somehow just barely not have access to the sea. I hope they can find a peaceful solution via Somaliland.
It would be great if you could express the same level of criticism and concern for Israel that you do for Turkey.
well he is a western person that has a personal hate against us it seems, i would ignore his videos. he doesn’t like to criticize „his“ people.
@@eren3390 spot on 👏!
Stop murdering Kurds lol
I seem to remeber him doing exactly that in several videos..?
This video didn't even have any critizism of Turkey..
Very informative, subscribed.
It remains a stab in the heart. 😢 the most painful part in the history of Ethiopia was the day we gave away the sea. Can not be explained what the Ethiopian representatives was thinking at the time. We had all the leverage against Eritrea back then. They are all dead now. We may never get the answer.
Please arrange an interview with Professor Markus Virgii Hogehe, who has spent the past twenty years observing and being present in northern Somalia. He has witnessed the realities of the region, particularly the activities and perspectives of secessionist movements.
His firsthand experience in these areas could provide valuable insights into the ongoing dynamics between those advocating for secession and the unionist to Somalia's unity. Such an interview would help shed light on the realities on the ground and the complex narratives surrounding northern Somalia.
Very well informed analysis 👍
As Somalis we have to be honest Somalia is just another state in Ethiopia they are rulling us and sadly we have rulers who are playing along with it how can you let their soldiers still be in Somalia after Ethiopia literally wanted to recognize the separatists as a country they showed us they with that action they don’t really want to help Somalia but keep it fragmented.
If Ethiopia supports Somaliland independence then just like it allowed Eriteria to break away would they be keen to allow Somali inhabited region which was in the recent past fighting guerilla war to secede?Colonial boundaries are the source of conflicts everywhere but may be either peacefully agree to seperate or follow AU agreements supporting respect for boundaries as gained at independence
There is a major issue with your analysis, Ethiopia did not forgo the Somaliland MoU as you stated, there was simply no mention of it in the Ankara declaration. This major issue was picked up by The Economist, you can read Tom Gardner's piece on it (link below). Your analysis is missing key factors that led Somalia to change positions. Up until the Ankara meeting, the Somalia president Hassan Sheikh refused to talk to Abiy until Ethiopia declares it had gone back on the MoU. So what forced the change? You have to look at the defeat of Somalian troops in Kismayo at the hands of the local warlord of Jubaland Ahmed Madobe coupled with pressures from the northern regions of Somalia in Puntland, that forced the hands of Somalia and made Ethiopia's position much stronger. The last issue was the fact that all observers agreed Ethiopian peace keeping troops were not going to leave as requested by Somalia in December, so this declaration was a dignified way for Somalia to appear to be in control instead of waiting till January and having no way of explaining why Ethiopian troops are still there.
For Somaliland, you also missed a major point when you say they are the biggest losers. If you keep track of Somaliland news you would have known that a major push for Somaliland's recognition is coming from the US, where many commentators are saying Trump has this on the agenda for Africa, in addition to the introduction of a bill to recognise Somaliland in the US Congress as of 12/12/2024. I normally like your videos James but this one is just missing many key issues and delivers a simplistic view of whats a deeply complex and fast changing landscape.
I didn’t miss it. The fact that it wasn’t overtly stated is irrelevant. It was implicit in the agreement. Ethiopia simply can’t accept Somalia’s sovereignty within its international boundaries, and also recognise Somaliland. The two are fundamentally incompatible. A state can’t recognise two separate sovereign authorities over a single territory. (My area of academic specialisation is state recognition.) Any agreement will therefore necessarily be a repudiation of the Somaliland agreement. And this declaration signals that this is the direction that Ethiopia is taking.
As for US recognition, let’s wait and see. It may happen. It may not. Trump is fickle and unreliable. If it does, it will be certainly huge news and a major win. And Ethiopia may then reconsider - much to Ankara’s anger. Until then, this has to be read as a defeat for Somaliland.
@@JamesKerLindsay Your statement about Ethiopia simply being unable to accept Somalia's sovereignty and also recognise Somaliland lacks one main bit of info; in July of this year Abiy Ahmed made an identical statement to what was included in the declaration about "commitment to Somalia's territorial integrity" (link below from Ethiopia's Broadcasting Corp.) and that was still rejected by Somalia. What was significant about making the same statement in the Ankara declaration? Answer: Nothing. The fact that the MoU was not stated in the agreement explicitly, as also discussed by The Economist, is a major issue precisely because the Somalian administration made repeated statements in the months leading up to the Ankara declaration that it will not sit with Abiy until he publicly backs down from the MoU. That Somalian redline was ignored by Abiy and they still sat with him. If you follow whats happening in Somalia and the defeat of Somalia's army in Kismayo you would have not come to the conclusion of your video.
Now onto the meat of what was exchanged in Ankara: On the one hand, Somalia conceded commercial port access, it also did a 180 and is now allowing Ethiopian military presence to remain in Somalia, something unthinkable just a few weeks ago. On the other hand Ethiopia was only willing to make a statement about accepting Somalia's "territorial integrity", on the surface this would appear meaningful (I think this is your argument), but as stated above Abiy made an identical statement in July via EBC (link below). So the real loser in all of this is Somalia who compromised on almost all of its redlines with little to gain besides a statement already made by Abiy in July. What was lacking in your analysis was deeper insight into what each side wanted, and what they got; you framed it as a loss for Somaliland, and yet Somaliland did not lose anything from this deal given that nothing has been said about their MoU.Somalia is now to contend with continued Ethiopian presence and participation in peace keeping mission beyond their remit, plus sea access in return for virtually nothing.
If you follow Somali social media you would have seen the backlash against Hassan Sheikh. I do not doubt your expertise regarding state recognition, but if all it took to defuse the situation was Abiy accepting Somalia's territorial integrity then there would be no need for the Ankara declaration since the Somalian side would have accepted the July statement.
With regards to Trump, he is indeed fickle and unreliable, another point to make here is that all this talk about him recognising Somaliland is coming from outsiders and not from him or people in his admin, so one cant get too excited about it, but the one thing we also know is Trump is very petty, and he does not like Ilhan Omar, so might actually go ahead with it just to spite her and her Somalian supporters.
ebc.et/english/newsdetails.aspx?newsid=7124
Yeh, they are working on it while still remains null and void kkk .
They want Somaliland to be used as a base against Yemen
Professor, could you please discuss,
How Eritrea was granted its independence from Ethiopia through the signature of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, even though it was not approved by the FDRE Parliament? The Ethiopian constitution clearly states that any law not approved by Parliament cannot be put into action. Additionally, could you explain the legal basis if Ethiopia were to attempt to reclaim Eritrea, considering this?
Thank you.
Thanks. This was a truly fascinating story. I made a video on it many years ago. But regarding your questions, there’s not much that can be done now. Under international law it has achieved its independence. It’s a full member of the United Nations. Even if Ethiopia now argued that its secession was wrong under Ethiopian law, it wouldn’t make a difference at this stage. What’s done is done.
Somalis in eithopian colony should get independent rather than so called somalia which is part of greater somalia and will remain part of it.
Abiye is living in dream come reality.
Ethiopia knows what to do. Do not worry, we have our rivers that can produce food, raise animals, generate electricity. They are our best cards to play with some of our greedy neighbors!!
As a Somali , its very simple, respect our boundaries we will respect your boundaries, we don't have any grey area and we don't care these man made laws that serve only for one group.
We have the right to shut down the American embassy and open Russian embassy and no one can say anything about it.
We don't interfere anybody's business.
😂😂😂As Africans we are deliberately obtuse sometimes, why do you allow yourselves to be pawns of the East or West
@Magumbo58 this is the same reason France colonized you and still colonises you.
I said , "we can do whatever we want"
You can only do what France wants.
You are just saying things 😂 dude you are living in a dream, wake up ,Somalis always boast and exaggerate but in real world things are different. Just look what going inside inside Somalia and then compare to your neighbors country.
6:40. With all due respect, Professor, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in Mogadishu 2006 was not the Islamist (which often insinuates extremist) group it was portrayed to be. It was formed by local communities seeking a justice system, and the leaders of these courts recognized the need for a united central authority, which led to the creation of the ICU. They were the Somali people's first hope for stability, ending the decades-long civil war. The ICU achieved what seemed impossible-they established a central authority in Mogadishu and reopened both the international airport and commercial port. Despite their efforts to demonstrate their nationalist goals, the international community ignored them. While there were some extremist elements within the ICU, they were contained. However, when the international community, fearing their Islamic identity, supported the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia, these extremist elements seized the opportunity. They framed the conflict as a holy war, giving rise to Al-Shabaab.
Initially, it was not at all about securing access to the sea on the Ethiopian side, since there was access via Djibouti, Kenya and a free port via Eritrea, but this agenda came about because the United Arab Emirates wanted to get close to the Redsea.
Thank you Sir Prof james
somaliland was independent country before the fail state of somalia
Independent of what .Somaliland is part of Somalia 🇸🇴 like ssc
@@abassadan2541I think you're misunderstanding here man!. What you're calling SSC is actually part of Somaliland. Inshallaah, I believe that one day, the people will support each other instead of fighting over tribalism, and we will be like we were before😊.
You don't know your own history. It's a sad thing that Somaliland hasn't developed it's educational system in the last 30 years. It's clans have been fighting a cold war and the corrupt presidents all became multimillionaires. Even the Isaaq people amongst themselves can't seem to work together. The only reason there has been some development is because of foreign investors/diaspora.
@najiibrashiidabdi5014 The way you loved to say that ssc is part of Somaliland .why weeping when we call in loud that Somaliland is part of somalia 🇸🇴
@abassadan2541 SSC is rather new in itself. It's just a piece.
i like your report thank you
Thank you very much!
What it means, for a start, is that Ethiopia's government is increasingly clearly Muslim-tinged. The Christians of Ethiopia have lost control of their own country.
Get lost with your bs...Ethiopia is land of Native Religions and imported....in Ethiopia even in one family you can find different religions practices....we are not somalia that if you are not mohammeddian you are not somali
Thanks professor james
This guy reminds me of the engineer from "There's Something About Mary", regardless I am proud of my brothers and leaders for choosing development and cooperation as an alternative to mistakes of the past antagonising each other. Yane Wende. 💐
Ethiopia having coastal access (of some sort) is the umbrella issue. If Ethiopia brokers access with Eritrea (long odds) or Djibouti (almost as long odds) Somaliland is left out in the cold.
Your presentation is good but you are wrong to say Ethiopia has lost sea access. Eritrea has given them free and cheaper access . But Ethio is looking to have a military base which is impossible to get from any East African countries. That state is belligerent in its entire history!
Many thanks, Professor. Jim.
As usual, the analysis is really thorough.
I recently sent you an email on the genocide in Gambella, Ethiopia, asking for your advice or recommendations.
I'd appreciate it if you could reply.
Great video but you should have included Ethiopias enourmous influence in the south of Somalia. Regional leaders there, in areas such as in Gedo, South West State, and Jubaland have publically exclaimed support for Ethiopia over Egypt in direct opposition the federal government. Ethiopians have been involved with the security of these regions working alongside these regional leaders, sometimes operating without the permission of the central government and apart from ATMIS. This is factor that likely pressured Somalias president to resolve things diplomatically before Egyptians arrived where swathes of the country would have been hostile to them! If you'd like sources I can provide them
2:37 Correction: Ethiopia was conquered by Italy in 1936 and they occupied it for the next 5 years
That requires some nuance though. Ethiopia never surrendered, the resistance fighters fought throughout the Italian occupation, de facto Italian control was limited outside of major cities and Italian sovereignty over Ethiopia was rejected by most of the world.
@sundiataq None of that changes the fact Italy conquered the country. They don't need to control every little town or city. Surrender is also not a prerequisite.
@keifer7813 Italy's attempt to colonize Ethiopia ended in total failure, and was never even recognized by most of its peers, which is why, I'm assuming, the professor referred to it as "never formally conquered". It's like you try to take over someone's house, but the whole time the homeowner is still there with the deed in his hands.
@@sundiataq It's an insignificant distinction though because the Taliban aren't formally recognised as the ruling power of Afghanistan by the international community, but they clearly are. It doesn't matter what the world thinks. Its about the reality on the ground. They conquered the country
Yes, 5 of colonialism and occupation by Italian colonial power.
I was surprised when you said 'Ethiopian Army HUMILITY'! 👀 The Somali National Army (SNA) in 1977 Somalia defeated Ethiopia, and Mangistu and Ethiopia Army couldn't Denfend their country, so he went Soviet Union to Defend Ethiopia🇪🇹 from Somalia🇸🇴 and to stop SNA fighters lighting war advanced. 1978 Somalia faced a #coalition war of socialist countries, including Cuba,🇨🇺 Libya 🇱🇾, South Yemen, and Soviet Union. This coalition Soviet Union put all the effort tanks jet fighters and more malicious, and they sent 1500 generals and military advisers, led by Vasiliy Ivanovich Petrov, Marshal of the Soviet Union. They also received support weapons and political from Israel, North Korea, West Germany, and other socialist countries. This was a coalition war against a single country: SOMALIA!🇸🇴."
Respect territorial integrity
Somalia 🇸🇴 doesn’t have problem renting a port to Ethiopia 🇪🇹 but the problem comes from the military base that they are going to get in Somaliland which means Ethiopia and Israel have close ties due to Ethiopian Jews so the problem comes as Israel is trying to get a base there to fight the houthies and Ethiopia let’s Israel to use that military base to fight against Yemeni houthies who are very close to that base just few kilometers of water separating them so once that fight starts and houthies start launching rockets and drones more Somalis will die so no military base but just port deal as long as they pay
Ethiopia finally got what they wanted. Port access.
Prof James with all due respect, your are still beating around the bush when it comes to the current conflict issue between Somalia and Ethiopia. First, Ethiopia has long history and political culture of being an old empire with expansionist and irredentist ambitions, where it has annexed many nations, nationalities and diverse ethnic groups in East Africa region. Among the prime victims are Somalis themselves where a big chunk of their native land, and with the immense help of European colonialists, was incorporated into its territory in the middle of 20the century and it still occupies. So resentment was always there and palpable under the surface. Even after Somalia became independent in 1960 things didn't improve a bit. Second, Somali land clan enclave is not a country per se nor it is noman's land but region which is part and parcel of Somalia's sovreign territory. So you shouldn't be dwelling on any notion of being a legal entity and existing country. Therefore, referring to it as the norther separatist region of Somalia or whatever is rightly applicable in its current status. The only problem existing now is that one clan among 5 native clans is attempting to illegally break away from mother country of Somalia. Third, as far as current tension between Somalia and landlocked Ethiopia is concerned, it is not even an equal and inter-state legal contest over reasonable issue or normal dispute but about an outright agression and one-side driven conflict in which Ethiopia is trying hard to wrestle over legit sovereign territory of Somalia by force to occupy and then annex and not necessarily for sea access needs, commercial use or anything but for military and other nefarious geostrategic reasons and exploitation scam. It is doing so through manipulation and bogus scheme in coordination with seperatist clan in that particular region. Basically. Ethiopia is trying to meddle Somalia's internal issues by the said illegal scheme as an opportunity for geostrategical benefit at the expense of Somalia's sovereignty and thereby compromising its territorial integrity.
Fourth, as for the latest agreement in Ankara between the two sides, it is going to the right direction but there are also serious doubts about the commitment of the erratic and immature Ethiopian leader and how long this diplomatic detente could last. If the past record is anything to go by, he is not trustworthy fellow with anything under the sun. This is not over yet untill it is over. Don't also forget the unholy role and scheme done by proxy actors and foreigners behind the scene of pimping, fueling conflict and pushing the issue as the currupt and notorious regional conflict profiteer of the Arab Emirates often does.
Why is Somaliland so much more peaceful and non fractious than Somalia. Aren't they both Somali's?
@@TheRealBozz Somaliland people got long history than Somalia people. I think that's the reason they're more civilised than the other Somali's. A history that begins from the kings of Egypts to Somaliland (the land of punt), where the people of Somaliland and Egypt had a great trade.
Somaliland is a region in somalia 🇸🇴 just like ssc
Somaliland lost half of its self-proclaimed territory to unionists who revolted in 2023.
@@getwhatyouwant3879 It's the same history. Ancient Egypt traded as far as central coast of Somalia.
@@rarelife1 Historians say that Somaliland and the Egyptian kings/queen had a great deal of trade. Before the Egyptian queen Hatshepsut, and after her time.
Punt was a land rich in products Kemetians desired such as myrrh, frankincense, woods, sweet-smelling resin, ivory, spices, gold, ebony, ivory and aromatic trees. Scenes of this expedition can be seen at her Mortuary temple Djeser-Djeseru at Deir el Bahri. (This is where the Sanaag region of Somaliland is located today). What evidence do you have that the people living in the south Somali's have a long history with the kings and queens of Egypt?
The question that no one has answered yet is why Eithopia needs sea access from Somalia? Ethiopia already has better sea access through Djibuti and Djibuti has also offered another sea access to Ethiopia where it will have a total control of the port? Even if Ethiopia wants a naval port which it has no right to ask, why doesn't it ask Djibuti which is likely to give it?
I agree with Erdogan's decision to support the rebels in Syria but I don't agree with his so called peace negotiations between Ethiopia 🇪🇹 and Somalia 🇸🇴 that could set back Somaliland's independence.
Hi James! Love your videos. I’d like to read a regular newsletter about global politics/int’l relations/conflict. Besides subscribing to Foreign Policy etc, are there any sources you’d recommend, perhaps Substack newsletters/individuals who are particularly insightful? Thanks a lot.
It’s important to acknowledge that discussions about Somaliland and Somalia often evoke strong emotions due to historical and political contexts. While this agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia may be seen as a win-win for the involved parties, it’s crucial to respect differing perspectives and ensure constructive dialogue that fosters understanding and cooperation.
Viva the somaliland republic 4 ever
I think these agreement would have not been any results because we know Ethiopia didn't want commercial purpose and if so, they have been using berbera port and also Djibouti offered them port in tojoura but they don't want it abiye Ahmed making all these things is that he is facing internal conflict and rebels
This rapprochement will be short lived, and in my opinion not genuine on Ethiopia's side. Somaliland's cause is gaining serious momentum and is expexted to gain international recognition soon. I dont think Ethiopia will put its bet on Somalia, a divided country where most of its territory is controlled by al shabab. Furthermore, the new deal between Somalia and Ethiopia has no foundation as Mogadishu doesnt control all the land, and there is no infrastructure that links Addis to the indian ocean.
You are spreading fake news? 70 percent of the country is free from Al Shabab now! I'm from Somaliland and against independence around 60 percent I represent that are against. This false narrative that all of Somaliland supports independence is nonsense
@@theancientsancients1769 you must be darood lol somaliland is already independt the only thing they looking is for recognition from the world also ye your your right most of the states does't have al shabaab is only the south and a little some states
Well said
@@theancientsancients1769are u sure that 60% are agains somaliland independent 😂😂 diyaar ma utahay in afti laga qaado shacabka somaliland o dhan xagay ubataana la aado kulaha 60% are agains somaliland haday saas tahay mabay jirteen adeer and u sow the elections ka dhacay gobol kasta o somaliland ka mid ah o cadayn u ahaa in somaliland mid tahay lascaanod iyo laba tuulo qabiil dartiis uga cararaaya mooye harti somaliland degen o dhan hal milyan ma gaadhan o wlhi ah waxa ka badan inta burco degen bes hargeisa Iskaba daaye hargeisa kali ah ayaa afti laga qaadi karaa iyo intaad sool iyo sanaag ka degto e hartiga hargeisa kali ah ayaa ka badan misaad leedahay 60% somaliland ma rabaan somaliland 1991 Aya lagu heshiiyey adeerada baana saxiixay waxaanad ka degta wa 20% waxaan gaadhin adeer e calaacal waliga hargeisa laga maamulaya xamarna saxaraha cidna ma rabto sa waxba malaga faaidayo dadkaagiba bariis dhacay isku laynaaya baahi darteed wax so saar malaha dhulkaagu dekedo ma leh airport iyo ganacsi iyo maal qabeeno ma leh 1 milyana ma gaadhid xagaad aadi ya ku baahan😂😂😂
@@AbdiganiIdrisand you went to the ballots in not more than400k
Ethiopia knows what to do.
I subscribe to your channel not only because your content is outstanding, but also due to the respectful and humble way you ask us to like and subscribe. Thank you!
Ethiopia knows and Somalis knows this deal will never happen, Somalis never ever be a friend with biggest enemy of our Land which we fight Last 1000 yrs, and even different riligion, 😢😢
Give em sea access and there will be no Somaliland.
40 percent of Ethiopia is Muslim there are more Muslims in Ethiopia then the whole of Somalia
MOU with Ethiopia or not, Somaliland will go forward with its quest for international recognition. The hope is recognition is closer than ever.
The failure of Ethiopia was to let Eritrea be independent as a failed state Somalia will make it difficult for Ethiopia to access the sea
The highlanders occupy the biggest junk of Somali land that the British government illegally annexed to them.the the European colonists left but the Ethiopians are around still.they know this and we know this,and until they leave there won’t be true peace
Your video provides some valuable historical insights; however, it omits several crucial aspects of the current situation in Somaliland and Somalia. For instance, it fails to address the ongoing conflict within Somaliland, which is a significant factor in understanding the region today. Many people in Somaliland do not support the push for independence and instead advocate for a stronger, united Somalia. Ignoring this perspective misses an important part of the narrative.
Additionally, your depiction of Ethiopia's role in Somalia seems overly favorable, presenting them as a savior or consistent ally. This characterization doesn't fully account for the complex dynamics between neighboring countries, including rivalry, interference, and the exacerbation of clan issues. Historically, regional players have often pursued their own interests, sometimes stoking divisions rather than fostering unity.
If you attempted to draw the current map of Somaliland, it would likely be challenging due to the ongoing conflict and the lack of a clearly defined or stable boundary. The war and disputes over territory are critical elements that should have been highlighted.
While the first half of the video appears historically accurate, the latter portions fail to capture the complexity of the current situation in Somaliland and Somalia. Incorporating these elements would provide a more balanced and comprehensive view for the audience.
Too much information and distraction from main points.
Where can Somalia give a sustainable, secure, and safe port to Ethiopia?
Outside Mogadishu the government has no control so I seriously doubt its capacity to provide a safe corridor
That is just dreaming 😂
Türkiye will give the necessary security there. Türkiye has the biggest military base in Somalia and recently made a security agreement with them to protect the sovereignity of the country supporting Somalia' s development, security and stability with many investment and education programs after the last civil war. Ethiopia also is a friendly nation to Turkiye. Turkiye have many investments there also. Ethiopia' s stability merge and development will be supported by Türkiye in all means. No chaos, wars and suffer in the region created for the sake of Israel and their allies benefits!
Somaliland will be recognized sooner or later.
Check your history. Ogden region was under British control until 1954, when the British handed it over to Ethiopia. In 1963, the NFD KENYA was formed, despite the fact that 83% of Somalis voted to join Somalia. However, Kenya still annexed them. You also forgot to mention that Ethiopia received assistance from Russia, Cuba, Libya, and Yemen. Additionally, the West refused to sell weapons to Somalia.
1:00 In the north of Somalia there are two sub-administrative states, namely Somaliland and SSC Khatumo
Without somaliland taking initiative and pooling there assets together to form a administrative government for the north. So called SSC would have been a refugee camp and the same as the Ogaden region. The supporters of the SSC should join there neighbourly brothers who had been feeding them and stabilising them all these years and contribute to there region instead of being a disturbance to the greater goal of bringing financial and political stability to the great ancestral lands we share
@user-kp9cg2sh5v First of all, who are you?
We are Somali and we are one family ,we can’t change our name,culture and traditions… before colonialism we call our land Dhulkeena or Gayigeena means our land and i am sure we will unite one day…..
I don't why you promoting clan territory of Somaliland half of it is not under control of so called Somaliland SSC already break away.
Ethiopian here. Ethiopia giving recognition to Somaliland before any other nation is againist the very notion of the old adage 'those inside glass houses should never throw stones'. Ethiopia under its current constitution is an 'ethnic bantustan' where secession is a constitutional right of every ethnic enclave. You can imagine what is in store for Ethiopia after such a short sighted and frankly stupid diplomatic decision.
iam from somali, Ethiopia will never get our sea, and one day we will get back our territory, and our city harar. as reality the war between somali and Ethiopia has long history and will never end . one day our dream become reality.
Since when the need of sea access for Ethiopia has become the responsibility and business of Somalia and the talking heads of other dishonest and sneaky foreigners? It is courtesy and neighborly business etiquette things and dealing, not an obligation and absolutely right. And there are clear international rules and regulation guidelines in place to follow of how landlocked countries deal with and get sea outlet through the maritimes of neighboring countries in the world. No more, no less.
I dont get why many people think the somali government only controls the capital, the current map of control from the wiki highlights the somali governments contested control of southern somalia, alongside puntland which has joined as a federal state.
One land, one people ❤
AFRICAN SOLUTION FOR AFRICA . INTERFERENCE OF WESTERN COUNTRIES IS THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONFLICT IN AFRICA 🌍. US . EU . UK HANDS OFF FROM AFRICA
What do you make of recent speculation that Trump will recognize Somaliland, in part to annoy a certain Congressional Democrat and in part for strategic positions to continue to deal with the Houthis in Yemen?
Thanks. This is a potentially huge development. A true game changer. If anyone could do it, it would be Trump. But I think there would be a lot of disquiet over the move.
Doesn't the US have military base in Djibouti?
@@rarelife1 Yes, but Somaliland is right across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen
@@joshuawells835 So is Djibouti and the Houthis don't control the Gulf of Aden coast of Yemen only the Red Sea coast where the attacks are happening. Djibouti also has coast on the Red Sea, Somalia doesn't. I don't think Trump can use that justification. And the other one just sounds insane.
@@JamesKerLindsay How will the world take it ?
Why did Ethiopia reject the sea it gave to Djibouti and want the seas of Somalia by force?
Because Jibouti will force to sign with legal and internationally binding bilateral agreement that forbids to claim the port and its lands in case Ethiopia tries. But Somali land would not be able to do such legality things. It is self help and sel-servng scheme and illegally murky territory. It sees it as no noman's land and once the deal is done with the local clan like colonial past used to do, it can twist the deal, deny it and can change the way it wants and eventually can claim the land as its own legally. Worse yet, no one in the rest of the world would be able do anything about . It is done deal and kiss of death bye bye. Abiy has already publicly stated his goal.
Viva great 🇸🇴 Somalia 🇸🇴 ❤️ 🇸🇴 ❤️ 🇸🇴 ❤️ 🇸🇴 ❤️ 🇸🇴 ❤️ 🇸🇴 ❤️ 🇸🇴 ❤️ 🇸🇴 ❤️ 🇸🇴 ❤️
Love Somalia and Somali please, Trumpy Somali American passing bye 🎉🎉🎉
The greatest enemy of both Somalia and Ethiopia was Siad Barre, whose unjustified invasion of Ethiopia led to Somalia’s collapse and the fragmentation of the Somali Republic. While his vision of a Greater Somalia made sense from a Somali perspective, his methods were flawed and strategically misguided. As an Ethiopian, I would support a united Somalia, but Ethiopians and Kenyans view it as a significant threat to their territorial integrity. The real solution is to unite the entire Horn of Africa as a federated nation, where people can come together without threatening one another. This would create a large market, strong military, and shared security, avoiding future conflicts. It is the only viable path forward.
BS
@moeawale4891 why?
@@aanshow Said Barre didn't divide Somalia into five parts. It was problem created and left by colonialists including Haile Selasse of Ethiopia. Every Somali leader was trying and struggling to fix the issue since 1960 and Siad Bare was only one of them. Bottom line: Somali people are victims but not culprits and aggressor as Ethiopia and other enemies try to make us beileve . And I found some people start believing that brainwashed Stockholm syndrome and propaganda BS of only if we could keep quit we would have been safe. Well no, that can't and won't happen and what the war torn Ethiopia is doing now is the proof.
No need for that. Just cease any claims on Somali maritime territory. Have an open border with Somalia for the free movement of people and goods between Somalia and Ogaden and work together on regional security. A federation with 120 million Ethiopians is never going to happen.
@moeawale4891 I totally agree with you that the whole problem started with colonialism. So that takes the original sin. But dnaying the fact that Said Barre invaded Ethiopia in an attempt to create the greater Somalia makes you either ignorant of the historical fact or you are deliberately trying to twist the fact. Either way, he failed and was defeated and could not be able to keep the federation state of Somalia. Bro, that is naked fact.
If we need change, we must be genuine. As for Ethiopia, it is an ancient country that has effectively defended its existence and faith. It's resilence is a gift of God. The people of Ethiopia, not its puppet politicians of the West, are resilient and love their neighbours. Many somalis lived in Addis freely and as they wish. Nobody ever made them feel they are foreigners or told to go back to where they come from, as told to the Senator of USA, who is from Somali origin. Please, the hate you have to Ethiopia is unfair and there is no reason for that.
I’m from northern Somalia aka somaliland, Awdal region. I will never accept succession from Somalia. Long live greater Somalia ☝🏾🇸🇴🫡
Professor, the Somali Republic never came into legal existence. That’s the crux of the whole dynamic amongst Somaliland and Somalia. There have been numerous legal scholars who’ve spoken on this. In addition to this, the AU did a fact finding mission and concluded there was never a union and that Somaliland had independence and that its case was unique. Somaliland had been annexed and militarily occupied. The root cause of Somalia’s issues is Somalian irredentism and clan based expansionism. Please increase your literacy on this matter.
10000 Cubans came to Ethiopia aid
Very useful, you educated me in understanding that the MoU has died, however I thought the Red Sea was important for Ethiopia. Can you explain to me how Mogadishu Can give Ethiopia an access to the Red Sea without Hargeisa allowing
Is the deal says like you're saying ?
❤❤❤ Viva Somaliland deserves a international Recognition from the world
Good information except not mentioning what Somaliland is at all. The Somaliland that you mention is started the sameway you mention. After 1977 Ethiopia created this somaliland, Puntland (SSDF) and (USC) what is now in Mogadisho call whatever you like. And when Eretria moved out of Ethiopian hands, they immediately found the successionist in where Berbera their main target was. That is the Somaliland Ethiopia going to recognize ( inherit the sea). But what you didnt want to mention is Where is what was previously known The British Somaliland Protectorate. 50% of that is out of what Ethiopia signed the MOU with them. And no one asked the rest of people near Berbera if it is right Ethiopia to do what it did to Eretria who shares them with religion, Similar language and closer ethnicity than Berbera inhatitant. The issue is Ethiopia looking new Eretria around berbera!
As always, Prof. James's presentation has always been nonbiased and to the point. Remember he or anyone else writes what they observe and possible outcome of any invents. And therefore, Journalist like prof James duty is not take make anyone happy or sad; meaning they don't take any side.
Why wouldn't the UN propose to Ethiopia, Somaliland and Somalia to enter negotiations around the idea of forming a federation. That would resolve Ethiopia's concern and reunite all Somali in one (federal) state ? Together the three would profit more of such a Union than remaining each in their respective corner... No ?
Lmao do you know what the Somali state of Ethiopia is?? Do you know the demographics and how it came to be part of Ethiopia?
The Ethiopian request for access to the sea can not be ignored. Population will be150 million in 10 years. Who can withstand it?
@@SelamEthiopia_2017 but that is not somalia's problem, Somalia is independent country, if you like swimming welcome to our sea but 5:00 am it's close time.
But it don’t mean you can take someone’s land 😂
Respect your neighbor sovereignty and you may be given access to the sea strictly for business purposes only.
Only port like Djibouti
I wonder how long this will last if Trump does recognize Somaliland.
😂30 years . Bro Somalia is one one and no one has the ability to divide them .maybe worry about tigray
@abassadan2541 What was Somalia doing for those 30 years?
Somaliland used those 30 years to build a functional state without outside help.
30 years later Somalia is heavily reliant on others to build their country.
Don't you find it a little embarrassing to see secessionists be more competent than the internationally recognised and UN-funded Somalia
It 30 years Somaliland is still 5 times more poorer than. Somalia😂. No wonder it's not recognized. Somalia has improved in last 3 years than Somaliland in 30 years...look at Gpd and national debt along with development, Somaliland is behind ...30 years and still the poorest region
@jamalramadan5290 this lan land has caused problem and it needs a strong leadership to deal with these tribal held states
@@The-Heart-Will-Testify You are aware that despite lack of international recognition Somaliland has achieved more than Somalia.
The only reason Somalia is walking is because it's heavily reliant on other countries army's (peace keepers)
Somalia is only richer because it is part of the international community an has access to extra funds.
Somalia being richer than Somaliland is still struggling to keep it's capital safe. Meanwhile Somaliland dose that with less money and fewer resources.
As we are Etho we don’t war any country we have our problems our home land