Thank you!! At last, someone who evaluates and simulates the drafts based on common sense, football knowledge and actual player skill. It is truly painful to see and watch all the mock drafts across the internet that are determined based on very strange concepts that have nothing to do with the game of football.
The one critique i would give is that i dont think Center is as big a need as most people do. We have Forsythe and Wattenburg and both Pa(y)tons have gushed praise on both of them saying Forsythe specifically is a starter. Could be owing smoke but i think theyre being honest on that one.
Penix would be a better pick than Bo from a talent perspective and overall he’s just better and has shown that he can make elite NFL level throws. If it weren’t for his injury history, he’d be easily in the top 10 but that’s where if a team is willing to take the risk it could benefit them tremendously.
Love Bo NIx. I think he is WAY under valued. If we could move down twice and still get him I think that is a steal for sure. I just don't know if its worth the risk.
I agree with trading down. Maybe with the Eagles for a 2nd RD at I believe 22 spot. drafting Bo Nix and then WR Malachi Corley out of Western Kentucky. That gives us our young WR corp Elway was trying to build years back with Sutton, Patrick, Lil Jordan, Mimms and Corley. Along with Dulich, Krull and a healthy Javonte Williams... Alot of weapons for a Young QB
I enjoy your takes, especially if we can trade back to get more picks and still get Nix. I'd actually be happy to get Nix, as opposed to taking him at #12 overall. The only part I disagree with, is emphasis on edge rusher. We need a real animal out there who can get after and pressure QBs. So that's the next position I'd like to see addressed after QB, rather than a receiver. Overall though, I enjoy your thought process on how Denver should approach the draft. Good stuff, man. :)
I"m taking issue with a couple things here. First, don't assume that Sean Payton thinks he needs a QB. Nearly every single draft prognosticator is making this mistake. I'll give you two reasons; 1) When he signed Jarrett Stidham Sean Payton made a specific point of stating that he saw Stidham as a potential future starter. Not only did he claim that, he went on to explain why, saying that Stidham had a fast mental processor & high football IQ capable of reading defenses. These statements are the only time Payton has commented on the value of any QB he has a possibility of starting in 2024, yet they have gone entirely unnoticed. These are ALSO the same exact traits he saw in Drew Brees. 2) During Super Bowl week Payton was asked by Kay Adams about Russell Wilson's future. In his response Payton talked about the QBs available in this draft. In a nutshell, he said that, "maybe two of them make it". People have made a point of remembering that he said he wanted to "fall in love" with one if he was to draft him in the first round but they've forgotten the rest of what he said. We know one of the two is Caleb Williams. Who is the other one? It's likely NOT Bo Nix. Here's why; Contrary to what has been said, Nix is NOT like Drew Brees. Brees had a very fast mental processor & could read defenses exceptionally well. It also took him 27 starts over 3 seasons in the NFL to have that ability. Nobody knows if Nix can do that, but the evidence suggests otherwise. For starters, Nix has numbers that are largely a product of spending nearly his entire college career inside the offensive system developed by Gus Malzahn at Auburn. When Malzahn left in Nix's 3rd season, new HC Bryan Harsin junked the HUNH (hurry up-no huddle) philosophy that kept defenses from making adjustments & installed a more balanced offensive philosophy that tried to emphasize the run game more & with more structured pocket passing & less on freelancing from the QB in a spread offense. It also installed some under center snaps for the QB. The result was, Nix had his worst year. Not only did he get benched against lowly Georgia State in a game they almost lost, but his performance against SEC & ranked opponents was dismal. Auburn began the season ranked 25th & finished 6-7. Three of those wins came against Akron, Alabama State & Georgia State. Nix went 3-5 against SEC competition. In those 8 games his numbers were bad; he went 172-286 for a 60.1 completion rate. In 5 games he was below 60% and his rushing totals dipped by about 50%. He threw only 7 TDs in those 8 games. How did Nix respond to this? He entered the transfer portal & jumped to Oregon to follow Auburn's OC under Malzahn (Kenny Dillingham) back to the offense he liked. On the way out the door he called playing for Haslin a nightmare. Back to why Nix is not like Drew Brees. At Oregon he continued playing in the Malzahn system, but now he was not only the beneficiary of a HUNH & a spread offense that required only one or at the most two reads, but he was now surrounded by NFL caliber talent & protected by a top 3 O-line in the college ranks. He was also free of SEC defenses. When Sean Payton had an opportunity back in 2006 as a rookie HC with the Saints to draft his choice of the top 3 quarterbacks in the draft that year....all considered top 10 picks & franchise level QB prospects, he ignored all three & instead took a guy with one good season in five on his resume & a potentially career ending shoulder injury. Nobody saw Brees as a future HOF guy back then. In fact only Miami offered him a contract after he became a free agent & he failed their physical. Yet despite being only 3 months removed from shoulder surgery, Payton signed him anyway. The skill set he saw in Brees...quick decisions, accuracy, high level football IQ...those are the same things he has praised Stidham for. One more thing... If you factor out Nix's Oregon work & the one year Stidham spent with Baylor & just compare the two seasons Stidham spent with Gus Malzahn at Auburn with the two that Nix spent there in the same offense, you'll find that Stidham out-performed him across the board. Yet because his junior year was not up to expectations, he slipped to the 4th round in the draft, mainly because the supporting cast was terrible. When Stidham got to the Patriots, coaches said that he was entirely unprepared for the NFL based on what he was taught in Auburn's system. That is the same system Bo Nix has been in for 4 out of 5 years, & the only year he spent outside of it, he was benched & played poorly, then he left to go back to it. Nix will be no more prepared than Stidham was for the NFL, but the difference is, Jarrett has been sitting in a room with Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels & Sean Payton for the last four years while Bo was throwing bubble screens & learning little about reading defenses. We've seen how Payton is not interested in drafting rookie QBs in the first round already. Why would he take Nix when he would likely have to wait 3 years for him to develop? Don't be surprised if Sean shuns all these hotshot QBs & drafts a lineman in the first round. Why? Because in the four drafts between 2006 & 2009 when the Saints won the Super Bowl, Payton added 16 multi-year starters to the roster either directly through the draft or through trades involving draft picks. Half of them were linemen. When Payton came to Denver, he said that one of the first things he planned to do was to build the trenches here. I think it's better than even money he's starting Stidham in 2024.
The last time Sean Payton traded down in the draft was 2007. He's made 16 NFL draft trades & only three traded back. All of them came in his first two seasons in New Orleans. If you're looking for more picks, they might be coming by trading Surtain.
@@johnhuston650 Payton believes in quality over quantity, but it doesn't stop there. His entire draft strategy is based on targeting specific players that he & the coaches have a vision for in terms of their role. He is not a guy who will simply throw darts to see how many keepers he can find. Regardless of the salary cap issues, which have been mitigated to some extent by the increase under the CBA, Payton is going to be targeting specific players. If he acquires more picks, look for that to more likely come because he moves Surtain.
Loved the draft, but Bo isn't lasting to 25. Also, one of the offensive line picks should have been a tackle. Minorz isn't leaving anytime soon and Bolles needs someone behind him.
Selecting quarterbacks in the first round rarely works out statistically. Sean Payton said Stidham is his guy, enough to bench a nine time pro bowler, Super Bowl champion, $245M quarterback… Lets see how Stidham competes as season starter… No rookie quarterback is going to suddenly make the Broncos Super Bowl contenders… How about selecting an OL,WR, or TE instead. Start building for the future quarterback NOW, so he can step into a smooth running system, instead of having to build one… 🤔
But again that doesn't gurrentte us at 19 or any pick further to b there if we want him that bad hellooooo just stay at 12 take him and work with what we have in picks damnnnnn how hard is this to understand we need QB changer that's BO and with our wideouts and pick couple more in the draft shittttt
I agree with the trading down. At least once. I can't see us going over 60 picks without a pick between 12 and 76.
Thank you!! At last, someone who evaluates and simulates the drafts based on common sense, football knowledge and actual player skill. It is truly painful to see and watch all the mock drafts across the internet that are determined based on very strange concepts that have nothing to do with the game of football.
I nominate you to run my Broncos draft this year. Youre hired. Make it happen.
The one critique i would give is that i dont think Center is as big a need as most people do. We have Forsythe and Wattenburg and both Pa(y)tons have gushed praise on both of them saying Forsythe specifically is a starter.
Could be owing smoke but i think theyre being honest on that one.
Big fan of this draft, if we can trade all the way down to 25 and land Nix, it’s gravy after that. Like most of the picks.
I agree
I think Ray Davis could definitely go as high as the second round. He is a steal.
Penix would be a better pick than Bo from a talent perspective and overall he’s just better and has shown that he can make elite NFL level throws. If it weren’t for his injury history, he’d be easily in the top 10 but that’s where if a team is willing to take the risk it could benefit them tremendously.
No.
Penix will be out the league in 3 years
@@legendzslayz6132wouldn’t bet on it but he’s defensively risky
Love the double trade down. Not sure if they will risk it tho.
Very impressed, great job
Great draft, in my opinion. You dropping down getting more pick, still getting a QB and working on several different areas of need.
Great job!
Thanks for a good mock draft, instead of major media thinking we're reaching for Nix at 12
Cooper DeJean 🙌 keep that db room intact after losing Simmons
Love Bo NIx. I think he is WAY under valued. If we could move down twice and still get him I think that is a steal for sure. I just don't know if its worth the risk.
I agree trade down to the top 20 and a second round pick
Shoot I’d trade down to the late 20s😂 get all you can.
I agree with trading down. Maybe with the Eagles for a 2nd RD at I believe 22 spot. drafting Bo Nix and then WR Malachi Corley out of Western Kentucky. That gives us our young WR corp Elway was trying to build years back with Sutton, Patrick, Lil Jordan, Mimms and Corley. Along with Dulich, Krull and a healthy Javonte Williams... Alot of weapons for a Young QB
Dulcich!!🤣🤣🤣🤣. Dude can’t stay healthy. This year will be his last chance.
I enjoy your takes, especially if we can trade back to get more picks and still get Nix. I'd actually be happy to get Nix, as opposed to taking him at #12 overall.
The only part I disagree with, is emphasis on edge rusher. We need a real animal out there who can get after and pressure QBs. So that's the next position I'd like to see addressed after QB, rather than a receiver.
Overall though, I enjoy your thought process on how Denver should approach the draft. Good stuff, man. :)
i hope we trade back twice from 1.12
I like Polk but if we are getting picks, getting another young cat in Jacob Cowling would be genius. Cowling is just dangerous
Good draft. One problem. Bo Nix will not last until the 22nd pick. If Denver trades back, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nix go at 13 to Las Vegas.
Penix is good too.
Absolutely Cooked, but I think you’re fine with Just 1 IOL guy and maybe use the other on a DT or a LB imo but the rest I wouldn’t have a Problem with
I"m taking issue with a couple things here.
First, don't assume that Sean Payton thinks he needs a QB. Nearly every single draft prognosticator is making this mistake. I'll give you two reasons;
1) When he signed Jarrett Stidham Sean Payton made a specific point of stating that he saw Stidham as a potential future starter. Not only did he claim that, he went on to explain why, saying that Stidham had a fast mental processor & high football IQ capable of reading defenses. These statements are the only time Payton has commented on the value of any QB he has a possibility of starting in 2024, yet they have gone entirely unnoticed. These are ALSO the same exact traits he saw in Drew Brees.
2) During Super Bowl week Payton was asked by Kay Adams about Russell Wilson's future. In his response Payton talked about the QBs available in this draft. In a nutshell, he said that, "maybe two of them make it". People have made a point of remembering that he said he wanted to "fall in love" with one if he was to draft him in the first round but they've forgotten the rest of what he said. We know one of the two is Caleb Williams. Who is the other one?
It's likely NOT Bo Nix.
Here's why; Contrary to what has been said, Nix is NOT like Drew Brees. Brees had a very fast mental processor & could read defenses exceptionally well. It also took him 27 starts over 3 seasons in the NFL to have that ability. Nobody knows if Nix can do that, but the evidence suggests otherwise.
For starters, Nix has numbers that are largely a product of spending nearly his entire college career inside the offensive system developed by Gus Malzahn at Auburn. When Malzahn left in Nix's 3rd season, new HC Bryan Harsin junked the HUNH (hurry up-no huddle) philosophy that kept defenses from making adjustments & installed a more balanced offensive philosophy that tried to emphasize the run game more & with more structured pocket passing & less on freelancing from the QB in a spread offense. It also installed some under center snaps for the QB. The result was, Nix had his worst year. Not only did he get benched against lowly Georgia State in a game they almost lost, but his performance against SEC & ranked opponents was dismal. Auburn began the season ranked 25th & finished 6-7. Three of those wins came against Akron, Alabama State & Georgia State. Nix went 3-5 against SEC competition. In those 8 games his numbers were bad; he went 172-286 for a 60.1 completion rate. In 5 games he was below 60% and his rushing totals dipped by about 50%. He threw only 7 TDs in those 8 games.
How did Nix respond to this? He entered the transfer portal & jumped to Oregon to follow Auburn's OC under Malzahn (Kenny Dillingham) back to the offense he liked. On the way out the door he called playing for Haslin a nightmare.
Back to why Nix is not like Drew Brees. At Oregon he continued playing in the Malzahn system, but now he was not only the beneficiary of a HUNH & a spread offense that required only one or at the most two reads, but he was now surrounded by NFL caliber talent & protected by a top 3 O-line in the college ranks. He was also free of SEC defenses.
When Sean Payton had an opportunity back in 2006 as a rookie HC with the Saints to draft his choice of the top 3 quarterbacks in the draft that year....all considered top 10 picks & franchise level QB prospects, he ignored all three & instead took a guy with one good season in five on his resume & a potentially career ending shoulder injury. Nobody saw Brees as a future HOF guy back then. In fact only Miami offered him a contract after he became a free agent & he failed their physical. Yet despite being only 3 months removed from shoulder surgery, Payton signed him anyway. The skill set he saw in Brees...quick decisions, accuracy, high level football IQ...those are the same things he has praised Stidham for.
One more thing...
If you factor out Nix's Oregon work & the one year Stidham spent with Baylor & just compare the two seasons Stidham spent with Gus Malzahn at Auburn with the two that Nix spent there in the same offense, you'll find that Stidham out-performed him across the board. Yet because his junior year was not up to expectations, he slipped to the 4th round in the draft, mainly because the supporting cast was terrible. When Stidham got to the Patriots, coaches said that he was entirely unprepared for the NFL based on what he was taught in Auburn's system.
That is the same system Bo Nix has been in for 4 out of 5 years, & the only year he spent outside of it, he was benched & played poorly, then he left to go back to it. Nix will be no more prepared than Stidham was for the NFL, but the difference is, Jarrett has been sitting in a room with Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels & Sean Payton for the last four years while Bo was throwing bubble screens & learning little about reading defenses.
We've seen how Payton is not interested in drafting rookie QBs in the first round already. Why would he take Nix when he would likely have to wait 3 years for him to develop? Don't be surprised if Sean shuns all these hotshot QBs & drafts a lineman in the first round. Why? Because in the four drafts between 2006 & 2009 when the Saints won the Super Bowl, Payton added 16 multi-year starters to the roster either directly through the draft or through trades involving draft picks. Half of them were linemen.
When Payton came to Denver, he said that one of the first things he planned to do was to build the trenches here. I think it's better than even money he's starting Stidham in 2024.
The last time Sean Payton traded down in the draft was 2007. He's made 16 NFL draft trades & only three traded back. All of them came in his first two seasons in New Orleans. If you're looking for more picks, they might be coming by trading Surtain.
Well he never gave away 80 million either. We are breaking new ground here. 😂
@@johnhuston650 Payton believes in quality over quantity, but it doesn't stop there. His entire draft strategy is based on targeting specific players that he & the coaches have a vision for in terms of their role. He is not a guy who will simply throw darts to see how many keepers he can find. Regardless of the salary cap issues, which have been mitigated to some extent by the increase under the CBA, Payton is going to be targeting specific players. If he acquires more picks, look for that to more likely come because he moves Surtain.
@@user-zr4km5ns8t we’ll see!
GO BO! Or JJ if he's there at 12, NO trade up!!!
Sign Tannehill to a one or two year deal and let Bo sit and learn.
Loved the draft, but Bo isn't lasting to 25. Also, one of the offensive line picks should have been a tackle. Minorz isn't leaving anytime soon and Bolles needs someone behind him.
I mean he probably will, unless someone like Penix falls instead which would be even better
If we trade down and get bo I like or even see about kid from tulane
Selecting quarterbacks in the first round rarely works out statistically. Sean Payton said Stidham is his guy, enough to bench a nine time pro bowler, Super Bowl champion, $245M quarterback… Lets see how Stidham competes as season starter… No rookie quarterback is going to suddenly make the Broncos Super Bowl contenders…
How about selecting an OL,WR, or TE instead. Start building for the future quarterback NOW, so he can step into a smooth running system, instead of having to build one…
🤔
But again that doesn't gurrentte us at 19 or any pick further to b there if we want him that bad hellooooo just stay at 12 take him and work with what we have in picks damnnnnn how hard is this to understand we need QB changer that's BO and with our wideouts and pick couple more in the draft shittttt
Nix will go to the Raiders at 13 if Denver trades back. Can't do it
Bo Nix won’t last to 25. You are going to pass on a possible all star at 12. A top 10 player will be available at 12.
Broncos do not even get a qb
so glad they didnt go after another washed up QB
Guaranteed:
Broncos will draft QB Spencer Rattler @ #12.
They have his former WR in Marvin Mims, Jr.
They’ll trade to get WR1 Xavier Lagette in Rd 2
Sounds dumb to me