Unlocked with John Curtice: All Labour have to do on the economy is say "Liz Truss"
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- Опубликовано: 27 апр 2024
- Join UKICE Director Professor Anand Menon for a special conversation with the “doyen of British elections”, Sir John Curtice.
Sir John needs little introduction to followers of British politics, as one of the UK’s best-known political scientists and the man who guides the nation through election nights for the BBC. Recently he calculated that on current polling, the Labour Party have a 99% chance of forming the next government.
With the election looming, join us for a very special audience with Sir John as we look ahead to the vote. He will reflect on historic election shocks such as 1992, through to the changes of government in 1997 and 2010. He will also offer an insight into what it is like to crunch the numbers on polling day while the nation awaits the exit poll.
This is a rare opportunity to hear from the man behind the numbers and promises to be a hotly anticipated event.
John Curtice is an absolute legend.
great listening to two incredibly smart people.
Well the bald headed one at least.....
Makes a change from Prime Minister Question Time, where the tories are lacking in grey cells.
@@AntiAntiSepticUK smarter than you will ever be
Just say 14 years
Im sick of all this Liz Truss and Trussenomics etc. They were Tory policies!!! She didn't do it all on her own ffs which is what they kind of imply. The Tory membership voting on her manifesto that had all the cuckoo economics in it. The daily mails headline at the time before it all went south was 'at last a tory buget'. No they all try and distance themselves from it, it was Tory ideological economics.
Absolutely right word for word. Right wing Tory ideology.
Agreed. Tufton Street patsies.
Truss wouldn't have happened without Johnson. Johnson wouldn't have happened if he hadn't lied through his teeth about Brexit. And that wouldn't have happened, and allowed Johnson, if May hadn't junked Brexit when she had the chance. And the seeds of Maybot, Endless liar, and the insanity of Lettuce Liz, would never have happened if the bastard Cameron hadn't been so thick as to call a referendum without even a modicum of safety to prevent a 4% majority screwing the country permanently. It all comes back to Cameron and his cruel and unecessary austerity as well as his abject idiocy.
Ie ist was the banks
@@davidrichardson5482 Correct. Tory Deregulation smashed our economy and killed 72 people in a towering inferno.
Labour needs to sit still, do nothing and wait.
That's right....and not talk about 2010, Brown boom and bust, bankrupt UK...AND NO MONEY LEFT!
When your enemy is making endless mistakes, just let them get on with it. The Tories will be reduced to nothing, and Labour will have the majority to get things done. I doubt the Tories will even be the opposition.
No, Labour needs to make the most of an open goal and actually come up with some radical changes to the current sh**show politics we're all currently saddled with. Timidity is turning off the electorate.
They could certainly indo a few things the tories did, but the reality is the country is really, really deep in a huge financial hole and it's gonna be at least 2 terms before any progress is seen in the real world, I'm not confident starmers up to the job of being radical@@jonm7272
if an enemy is making a mistake, don't interrupt them
Got to love the delicate little pause on the first question as the interviewer tries to get the claim out that this is a government we've got right now, I can't tell if he wants to laugh or cry but he really doesn't want to frame them as anything within spitting distance of a government.
Nice to have someone other than a politician talking about politics, someone without an axe to grind. That way, the discussion ends up being in terms of the reality, not the fantasy.
The majority of the public react however the media tells them to.
Thank You!
Those windows notification noises over your video confused the hell out of me.
LIZ TRUSS👏👏👏LIZ TRUSS👏👏👏LIZ TRUSS👏👏👏.
I have a lot of time for both gentlemen in the video . Im a bit concerned Sir John Curtice is looking a bit thin and tired ? I hope you are well sir , we need your expertise and sincere intelligence in this country at present and beyond . Have a nice long Summer vacation ,in the sunshine ... you've earned it !
Brilliant summary of the Uk citizens, seeing he’s represents the public
He's looked thin and tired for the last 30 years, If I'd been in a coma since the early 90s I'd wake up and instantly recognise him.
Appreciate you sharing but sound seems off with external noise, might be worth looking into some izotope audio solutions, sound is critical in media production 👍
Middx drawing with Glos was due to Brexit. It rained.
And it'd be true!!!!
Yes. But that is a bar you might have difficulty tripping over. I would hope they can do better. Preferably a lot better. Fingers crossed.
About 8 million people are not registered to vote in the next general election and many who are registered may still not have valid Photo ID or either a free voter authority certificate or free anonymous electors document with which to be able to vote.
Gerrymandering is the Nasty Party’s last hope.
Well said. At the last General Election in 2019, it was also estimated that around 6 million were unable to vote in the UK, as they hadn't registered to do so. That equated to around 14%, or almost 1 in 7 of the total electorate of 46 million.
@@paultaylor7082 Thanks. The 2016 EU referendum is another example of the failure of the electoral system in the UK.
The 2016 EU referendum had over 12.9 million people who did not or could not vote, this compared to a little over 17.4 million votes for Brexit and a little over 16.1 million against Brexit with 52% of votes cast for Brexit and 48% of votes cast against Brexit with 72.2% turnout.
Another referendum on EU membership is necessary as having an approximate third of the electorate in favour, a third against and a third not voting is not a decisive result in any election.
The problem with that is Rishi Sunak is not her. He literally was the guy who opposed her and all his Toffyness can be waved away with he is the guy who supported you through the pandemic.
Millions of self employed people were left with nothing because of Sunak. And I would remind you that Sunak as Chancellor, quietly wrote off 6 BILLION pounds of fraud, thanks to his paying out to people who lied about being a business. You can add that 6 billion to the Tory debt mountain. Because you don't get to blame Labour. It would take many many years to even make a dent in the Tories profligacy of the last 14 years. Austerity for little people, no tax for billionaires.
cant stand the man vote curtis vote labour
Johnson immoral
Truss economic illiterate
Sunak too small
Want I fail to understand is why anyone would vote conservative when their trackrecord over the last 13 years simply is frightingly bad, except when you are well to do. Ask yourself: are you better of now? The answer for the majority, either economically, socially or culturally is a simpe and straightforward: NO.
He could leave for usa
Distancing from Truss, I get. Distancing from Boris, he still has a remarkable amount of appeal among Tory 2019 voters.
a terrible indictment of tory voters, boris is an evil, corrupt and hideous person
Where do they get these fossils from?
Goodbye to evil capitalism
It’s not going anywhere.
You mean the Labour party who rejected socialism?
Curtice claims that people have not reacted to the increasing size of the state by saying that the tax burden must come down. He may be right. If he is then the country is in for a world of hurt and things will get a lot worse than they are now.
Simply put we are at the point where any further attempts to substantially increase spending will critically damage the economy. We are already suffering from the albatross of the debt interest and more spending will just make that worse. That a good number of people are not aware of that frankly shows how out of touch they are with economic and fiscal reality. We already cannot afford our current level of government spending. Drastic cuts are necessary to get things remotely back near an even keel. Eventually those cuts will happen. The question is how much damage to the economy and society and living standards will occur before people take their heads out of the sand?
Exactly, fiscal rectitude is important but people just want money. It is all incentives.
I can't believe no-one's given this a thumbs up. After five years of necessary austerity to get the debt down, all that hard work was reversed for the sake of an illness the vast majority of people survived, although I think much of the fiscal overreaction was revenge for austerity by a lockdown-left keen to blame brexit for any fallout. Reading what Rachel Reeves says about borrowing only to invest and seeing how keen they were to follow the example of their betters abroad, I reckon Rachel Reeves is looking to France as the ultimate limit on public borrowing. They just enjoy spending money that isn't theirs too much. Although the Tories are the same now, which is a travesty. It's like an end of days spending frenzy. Who needs to be patriotic with the nation's wealth when you can just bugger off.
The problem isn’t so much the level of government spending, although that shouldn’t rise much from here. The problem is that so much of what’s spent ends up in private companies, and is not funding actual services. If the NHS for example started rolling back private outsourcing and spent a bigger share of its money in-house, provision of health care would get a bigger bang for the buck. That would result in lower waiting times and better health which in turn would benefit the economy. That’s probably the lowest hanging fruit. The government needs to spend the money smartly. But austerity on its own would deal a mortal blow to an already collapsing society.
@@TheShortStory and you've demonstrated that you're part of the problem.
There is NOTHING wrong with spending ending up in the hands of private companies if those private companies are performing the required task efficiently, effectively and competently.
As for the NHS? It, itself is the biggest problem with health. It is sclerotic, clumsy, inefficient and incompetent. That is due to its structure. It has no proper competition. Therefore there is no proper incentive for improvement of its services. The "solution" up to now has simply been to throw more money at it, which simply causes that money to be further wasted. Fundamental structural reform is required to sort things out. The American system is just as bad as the UK system, but in different ways. Neither are appropriate structures for healthcare in a modern society.
A system with social insurance usable with multiple providers is much better than either. It provides competition within the system and thus an incentive to improve. It also doesn't mean the poor lose out on medical care.
As for overall expenditure. It will be cut. No two ways about it. We will eventually have to live within our means. How long we delay those cuts determines how savage they will have to be.
@@davidpnewton 🤷♂️
Starmer should distance himself from puppet master Blair.
He said similar last pre-election too. He was 100% wrong.
He's right this time.
Tories may not survive as a party
No. In 2019 he said the Tories would get a landslide, because of leaver belliever twats, and because nobody trusted Jeremy Corbyn. Perhaps you would like to take a look at what he said prior to the 2019 General Election.
Egg on his silly face....again.
Things are very different from 2019……
@@gavinhughes7136 Well, you can thank leaver believers for Brexit that has ruined the economy, and you can thank leavers for giving the Tories an 80 seat majority to destroy the UK and waste every penny of taxpayers money. They are entirely responsible. And they will have to take full responsibility for their abject stupiidity on two separate occasions, years apart.
He is not wrong. Labour will do very little thats different.
And thats the most depressing part....
Are you saying you’re happy with how it’s been handled the past decade? Or are you defending people that don’t care about you?
Got a reliable source for that claim ?
Labour will do things, they need to patiently wait until they are in office as the press, the Muppets who voted Tory and client journalism all against them. Labour playing a slow boil waiting game. Don't say anything or interrupt your enemy when they making mistakes etc. I did however think they should of shown more backbone over the national green energy company which the Tories and press jumped on. Starmer should of said shut up, it's a good idea and the people love it.
That's quite demonstrably wrong, given that Labour's policy platform is distinctly different from the Tories across a broad spectrum of issues. You just clearly haven't researched it.
The problem is labour went along with it but what they wanted was 10x worse.
Horrible old lefty 😅
Where are your up and coming politicians? All I see is rehashing old points. And there is no rehashing what was a failing on both side of the chamber. There is surprisingly little difference between to Conservative and Labour viewpoints.
I do not understand why anyone wants to listen to him was he not got lying on a speeding fine I'm his ex-wife took this rap for it
That was Chris Huhne, who was an MP.
❤ Rid the United Kingdom of the Divisive Nationalist E.U Welsh and Scottish Parliaments
The U.K parliament has been enough since Oliver Cromwell
Sell them too to benefit of Local Inhabitants and or New Comers, this is in the remit of the one in position of First Lord Of The Treasury
Out
"'Divisive Nationalist E.U Welsh and Scottish Parliaments"
No such thing as EU parliaments in the UK.
Fortunately Brexit will remain firmly in place for the rest of the century as people will not want to jeopardise the future of Britain freedom and independence by making the mistake of rejoining the European Union.
Excellent satire. Bravo.
No chance
There’s none so blind as will not look.
Poor effort.
Are you saying that the Netherlands aren't a free and independent country scumbag?
And the Conservatives will reply....''Gordon Robber Brown BOOM and BUST!''
AND ''NO MONEY LEFT!''....2010.
@@PollieBrooon-cz5yg
To which just say BREXIT, 14 years, oh wait nvm I just remembered the people of this country have short term memory when tories make mistakes and long term memory when labour has to face actual problems like a global worldwide economic crash
The money Brown spent reduced NHS waiting lists, Boris spent all the money on dodgy PPE contracts, tens of billions lost to fraud, and of course the gold wallpaper in Number Ten. Then there was the £30Bn losses courtesy of Liz Truss and Kamikwazi Kwarteng's "mini budget". And where was Rishi while all this was going on? up to his eyes in the trough grabbing as much as he could
I always maintained, and still do so, that Brown was technically correct when he claimed he'd ended Boom and Bust. We had the Boom of 1997 to 2007, than the Bust of 2007 onwards, as banks around the globe had to be rescued from going under. If we've had a Boom since 2007 in the UK, I, along with millions of others, must have missed it.
You're a tard.
John Curtice is possibly one of the worst political scientists/commentators of all time. Fortnite youtubers genuinely would have better insight.
Do explain, not that I disagree.
I think Liz Truss' ideas were terrible. But I find it very difficult to believe that she caused that much damage with a budget which was never even implemented. I suspect she's being used as a convenient scapegoat for broader economic failures by the government, industry, and financial institutions.
Cut taxes to boost growth....it's happening now...she was so right.
The Conservatives called it a fiscal event, not a budget. Doing this meant they did not have to get the OBR to give its view.
Truss caused immense damage not least 30billion of public debt fixing the mess.
While there are other factors, as you say, in leaving the economy so weak. You are being very generous to Truss.
It didn't need to be implemented. The markets took frit the second it was announced, and the damage was done. Cost me, personally, a lot of hard earned money.
@@PollieBrooon-cz5yg I'm not sure she was right, especially to do it so suddenly and drastically, at the exact time when the Bank of England was also trying to reverse quantitative easing. When many people had warned her against it.
Though I also don't think she was solely to blame. And I'm not convinced current economic problems can be blamed on her.
@@FTFLCY You mean that the socialists support the market? @~?£ that is refreshing.
I wont vote Conservative purely because of high tax big state. I want low tax low state. Nhs is just a money pit.
You're condemning millions of people to death through illness, as well as poverty.
@ally11488 rubbish. Socialism works until run run out of other people's money. Slash benefits. Raise pensions for those that actually put in to the system. The leaches well they can learn to get a job like the rest of us
@@marcmcdonald9930 That's a brain dead way of explaining economics. Can you explain why we have had record low unemployment, anemic growth and millionaires and billionaires getting richer?
@@marcmcdonald9930 You do realise that making it more expensive to have kids through low pay and expensive child care absolutely guts your economy as the population ages?
@ally11488 yeah. Benifts that are too high causing people to prefer to live off the state. Taxes too high restricting investment. Immigration causing low wages. Don't hate the millionaires.... think how to become 1
Sunak as Chsncellor wrecked he economy but rampant immigration and diversity are what most voters hate. His failure to stop immigration will be his ruin. That Labour will only make it worse is ironic.
Right, because 'stopping immigration' is what public services need...
Absolute rubbish.We're all a little bit more stupid for having read your comment
Professor Curtis isn't some random chap down the pub with misguided opinions and a degree from the university of Google, he is a well respected expert on polling and public opinion. Do you not think he would have said exactly what you said if it were true?
@@barryboom717 No!
How do you know that Labour will make it worse? Because the Daily Mail and GB News told you they will?
Boris is great👍
At lying
@@kevinjackson6387 He's not even great at that. He's pathetically obvious - after many decades of hard practice..
VOTE UK REFORM NIGEL FARAGE HE LOVES THE ENGLISHMAN AND CHRISTIANS 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧
So if you are not an English MAN and not a Christian? Apparently those people don't matter.
Farage is a nasty, xenophobic, misogynistic, small minded, selfish opportunist. As are many of those who like him and his, 'policies.'
Reform UK= racists
Nigel Farage is the son of a City of London stockbroker who was privately educated before being given a job in the city through family connections. He is a liar and a grifter who as a member of the European Parliament dd nothing to benefit his constituents. It is ironic that having called out the former Prime Minister of Luxembourg for his role in the tax avoidance schemes Farage was among those desperate to get britain out of the EU before the Anti Tax Avoidance Directive came into effect.
The last bunch of idiots anyone should vote for. Reform UK. 😊
The OP is surely NOT English with weird English like that!