Unlocked with Sir John Curtice: Brexit means Tories have no support in Parliament
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- Опубликовано: 30 апр 2024
- Join UKICE Director Professor Anand Menon for a special conversation with the “doyen of British elections”, Sir John Curtice.
Sir John needs little introduction to followers of British politics, as one of the UK’s best-known political scientists and the man who guides the nation through election nights for the BBC. Recently he calculated that on current polling, the Labour Party have a 99% chance of forming the next government.
With the election looming, join us for a very special audience with Sir John as we look ahead to the vote. He will reflect on historic election shocks such as 1992, through to the changes of government in 1997 and 2010. He will also offer an insight into what it is like to crunch the numbers on polling day while the nation awaits the exit poll.
This is a rare opportunity to hear from the man behind the numbers and promises to be a hotly anticipated event.
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Many of the Tories ought be looking at serving gaol time for what they have done to the country, they're self serving not the country.
The EU is not the same as when we left it. It is a political monster. We voted our way out. The citizens of 27 member states will have to fight their way out.
@@SJG-nr8ujnot at all relevant to the comment you replied to, bot
@@SJG-nr8uj OK vlad.. Good game 👏
@@GLTDubstep Time will show we were right to get out when we did.
Half the country is totally despondent that we are now sitting outside the EU with absolutely nothing to show for it.
Does one truly need a mathematical model for this prediction? Just look at the mood of the nation. It’s over for the Tories.
Yeah. The first rule of politics is do your sums. Doesn't matter how popular or unpopular a leader or a party may be, if they can't win enough seats to form a government they have lost. That's the same in any democratic system and it can be a total b*t*h.
We need to get back in the Single Market, PR and the Tories consigned to the bin forever, along with Reform, please!
You don't want the Tories consigned to history. You want a strong opposition or whoever is in power goes mad. That was a big problem between 2015 and 2020 as well: labour wasn't strong.
The Tories are a stabilizing force for Labour. (As labour are for the tories).
They also act relatively moderately. No Tories and parties like reform will steer the right wing vote far right.
Reform would be the greatest beneficiary of PR.
But if you were to get rid of the right wing and centre right parties, what do you think would take their place?
@@HALLish-jl5moI think it might have been Hitchens that said - Labour is should a broad church, the only thing that unites them is mutual hatred of the Tories - if the Tories collapse, so would Labour.
@michaelmccomb2594 they'd do OK, but noone would do a deal with them...bit like Wilders in Holland! They right will always be there, but the majority, thank god, are not!
@@anthonygrayson7753 they are currently polling at about 10-15% - similar to Farage/UKIP at 2015 election, which would naturally be higher under a PR system
Personally I’d disagree with your comment on other parties doing deals with them
If you had a leader on the right of the Conservative Party (like David Davis, Priti Patel, Braverman) who needed Reform/UKIP votes to form a govt, I don’t think they would refuse to do a deal with Farage/Tice
Point taken. The last 5 times a Parliament in the UK ran to its full length (or within 6 months of it) was in 1979, 1992, 1997, 2010 and 2015. In 1979, Labour lost power to the Tories, in 1992 Major surprisongly won with a 20 seat majority, in 1997, Labour won by a landslide, replacing the Tories. In 2010, the Tories were only the biggest party, and became the Government in coalition with the Lib Dems. They won a narrow 12 seat majority in 2015. So out of the last 5 General Elections, where the Parliament ran for the full (or almost the full) course of 5 years, only John Major managed to retain power with an effective majority. Cameron's majority of 12 lasted only 2 years, as May unwisely called a nearly General Election and then had to rely on the DUP to bail her out, after she gave the DUP a bung. The moral of the story is if you run a Parliament to its full term, you're far more likely to lose the ensuing General Election. That's where the Tories now find themselves, with only just over 6 months to go and languishing 20 points behind Labour, facing a defeat as bad as 1997 and possibly as bad as 1906, when the Lib Dems repalced them as teh Government. BTW, May was the first PM since 1951 to call a General Election quite early and lose an overall majority. Not as bad as Attlee though, who called that election in October 1951 and despite Labour polling more votes than the Tories, the Tories won an overall majority of around 10 seats and remained in power until 1964.
So, to summarise, you're saying every election is different. Thanks.
Was the 1970 General Election polling error bigger than 1992?
Is Curtace working for UK in a changing Europe, ie EU? Who funds them?
Rejoin the EU!
The EU is not the same as when we left it. It is a political monster. We voted our way out. The citizens of 27 member states will have to fight their way out.
The EU breaking up is not our problem to fix.
@@SJG-nr8ujThe referendum was advisory and not legally binding. The UK government chose to withdraw from the EU on 29 March 2017 despite being aware that a majority of voters in Northern Ireland and Scotland expressed a will to remain. It is most unlikely that the EU will fail before the UK.
@@ilokivi The EU will be gone within a couple of years of economic union, and the EU wants economic union complete by 2027, which you should know.
I report on the EU's own treaties, documents and declarations, which you haven't read. They reveal that the EU is a giant, duplicitous, megalomaniac scam. And the reason you don't know this is because you have been scammed. They didn't tell you what you needed (and still need) to know, and you lacked the gumption to find out for yourself.
And in this country the government is the servant of the people, and acts upon the instructions given to it by the electorate. The reason the referendum was called in the first place was because the Lisbon Treaty redefined our membership, with the clear intention of making us a mere province of a federal European state. Gordon Brown should therefore have held the referendum before he signed it. Cameron called it to give the Lisbon Treaty a retrospective democratic legitimacy, so he could wash his hands of handing the country over to Brussels. "Not me, guv, the people did it." Only they didn't. And if the EU and the Remain campaign had been open and honest about the EU's federal and military intentions the Leave majority would have been massive, there would have been Leave majorities in Scotland and Northern Ireland too, and the whole of the last eight years of political wrangling would have been avoided. I repeat, you've been scammed.
@@SJG-nr8ujexcept you lot said all of that before Brexit. I genuinely think your cause would be better served if you came up with some new lies as repeating the old ones aren’t working so well
99% comes from studying something called Statistical Probability. I remember this from doing Pure Maths with Statisitcs, bookies do this all the time when giving odds. When the National Lottery first started, with 48 numbers, the odds on winning the jackpot, getting all 6 numbers correct, was given as around 13 MILLION to one, they're considerably less now there are more numbers. These odds were longer than a bookie would allegedly give someone for correctly predicting that Elivs Presley (long since dead) would be discovered, piloting a UFO and landing on top of the Loch Ness Monster's head, which would allegedly be around 10 MILLION to one. While not saying the odds on Sir John's prediction are as definitive (in this case that something is far more likely to happen), given the plethora of polling evidence, most statisticians would conclude he's probably right. So far, I've not heard a single reputable one argue he's wrong. Hopefully we'll find out, the sooner, the better. Have a nice day, y'all, unless you're a Tory.
Correction here, the odds on winning Lotto are now longer.
More interesting questions are over under on 100 seats for the Conservatives at the next election, and whether the party exists as a meaningful force in the one after. 100% of Conservative MPs think Labour will form the next government, 100% of people questioning whether Labour will form the next government think Labour will form the next government, their public pronouncements otherwise being only to generate debate.
What is the fuss all about? It is 100% even.
Curtice has some credibility so is expected to be able to show his working. He probably upset many deluded people who suffered cognitive dissonance.
It's not 100% because some Tory client media trick might work to discredit Labour
@RobBCactive the Tories wont get above 25% even if Labour's poll numbers fall off, the question is where do those votes go and what affect will it have on a FPTP system.
I live in a blue wall seat everyone I know is voting lib-dem to kick the Tory out, its a well off town in the North but the river is full of sh1t the hospital needs 20 million because RAAC and the roads are that full of potholes it's like driving on the moonscape
@@RobBCactiveTory media is trying and failing it seems
Why are people phoning this man asking why he said something? How dare he have an opinion.
Deleting comments.. clever 👏 👏
'Control the narrative'
It’s not them. It’s RUclips. And it’s getting out of hand.
@@shelleyscloud3651 It's getting to the point of why bother. I reckon I have a 50% failure rate at this point.
I love it when returners like Professor Anand Menon pops out of his white castle to bang the drum for returning to the EU. Yet he ignores the damage FoM did to our indigenous low paid parking them on welfare with employment agencies hiring direct from the EU driving wages down. Today people I know who were struggling on 3 or 4 Zero hour contracts now have full time secure jobs as employers try and keep them by paying above the minimum wage.
If Prof Menon is so desperate to get back in the EU then maybe think of our low pay or Left Behind sector who IMO basically pushed Brexit over the line.
Its not all about your bubble Anand
Yeah, but then we had nice Christian Polish people who were educated and skilled. Now you just got a load of bungle junnies!
FoM didn't do any damage laughable little "man". Typical English: blaming everyone else for your countless English failures. One has to admire how you can shamelessly lie all day. So glad your rotten, corrupt cuntry is out.
Yeah, life in England has never been better since Brexshit 😂. NHS is thriving. Waiting lists gone. Housing for everyone. No more working people queueing at food banks. People in need get adequate support. All thanks to the glorious Brexshit hahaahahahahah
define indigenous.
Unf for you returners are the clear majority and have been ever since the vote. It’s just a matter of time as you well know
More rubbish from Curtice
Cope and seethe, Tory Boy.
Spoken with the true intellect of the dumb Brexitards 🤣
Please explain your reasons for reaching this conclusion.
?
The reason you see him a lot is because he is not just well informed but rational and neutral. All the things, by implication, you are not
The EU is not the same as when we left it. It is a political monster. We voted our way out. The citizens of 27 member states will have to fight their way out.
All 17 million of you Boris?
Yes, just look at all the other countries in the EU queuing up to leave since we left 8 years ago. Wait a minute...
Wishful thinking springs to mind!
Bs😂
SJG-nr8uj - Nobody is dumb enough to buy those magic sovereignty beans now.