There is a balance where people do try talk the football and relate it to fantasy. But even the fantasy discussion is pretty narrowed down compared to when people had more choices in the regular season. So you are getting more football talk in January regardless.
I listened to every episode of this show during the pre-draft, draft, and preseason; but have only listened intermittently during the season. HUGE mistake! This is the best weekly matchup content I've seen this year. You guys crush it! Got to put my podcast priorities in check here
I hadn’t allowed myself to even think about the Rams coming to Detroit. I’m not sure what could be more poetic than them fighting to go to the superbowl. Also, the Stafford/Goff trade keeps proving to be one of the best of all time?
@@Steve_643 Cant ever say that if the Rams come out of the trade with a SB win and the Lions dont. If the Lions win the SB at any point during those guys careers, then sure you can give the edge to the Lions in the trade but its still a win win imo
Finally a football show that understands that Jalen is a pretty good quarterback and the Rams are true underdogs in this game. Can they win, absolutely, but even their best gameplan is still built on the hopes that Philly has a bad passing game as well.
Someone has to win the AFC South. If Baalke/Ballard/lol whoever is running the Titans can't get their shit together, then Nick Caserio can hang his hat on HC Demeco Ryans with his pass rush/defense and CJ going off.
Im working a closing shift and will have to miss my commanders second plaoff game this year!!!!! Im so beyond bummed that i have to miss that game, but im happy we made it.
Long time fan and love the show. Would be awesome to hear more about EJs backdrop wood wall. Is there is episode where he talked about it in detail. I would love to do something like that.
Andy Reid has rested players the similar amount of time prior to super bowl run of 57. It was around 21-23 days if I’m not mistaken. Don’t think it is rust and just got our CB2 back!
It's funny how this is the 4 teams I expected to be left in the AFC preseason, but I expected the Bills to be the weakest one and it's arguably the strongest while the Texans almost seem like they don't belong.
As an Arizona state fan I will always thank Herm Edwards recruiting Jayden Daniels and witnessing bro that 1 year in the uniform. Fast forward he won his first playoff game as a rookie, hopefully Washington keeps a good staff around him. Brother is elite
I think something that needed to be said but wasn't for the breakdown of Det vs. Was - they said Det gave up 120 to Minn on 19 carries, averaging 6.3/rush. Akers averaged 10.8/rush. While true, yes, he got 65 yards on 6 carries - and 58 of those 65 yards came on 1 carry. You take that 58 yard run out, and Minn got 62 yards on 18 carries - about 3.5/rush. So one run by Cam Akers is SEVERELY inflating the numbers
@@treysonmcgrady4750omg chargers made me so mad i bet on herbert to have less than 31.5 attempts and bro threw his 4th interception on his 32nd pass to end the game like if it doesnt work dont do it
BOOTLEG! Also, more Bootleg, you are forbidden to sleep through SB. Manage that and I substitute one bottle of Malort with some Highland Park. Your choice which label 8>D Seriously though love the show guys, thanks! PS, AG in the Lions DB Room- "Not much to tell ya guys, stay limber, once in a while Kerby will be back there to help. But don't count on it. Ok gotta go, see ya Sunday"
Interesting bit about the Lions 3rd down defense. We play the Most cover one on third down of any team by a lot. Detroit also has the best third down defense in the league. I would assume that that is not a coincidence. But yeah, Jaden Daniels makes me real nervous. And their is a good chance that Bryan Branch will probably get some debatable roughing the passer and or unnecessary roughness call thrown on him when he hits Jaden Daniels on one of those runs.
A pretty underrated storyline for Bills/Ravens is that in Week 4, Buffalo was missing both of their starting linebackers. Buffalo's run fits rely pretty heavily on their backers to make up for their love of the 5th DB and lack of a true run stuffer in the IDL, and Baylon Spector (2nd career start) and Dorian Williams (6th career start) just were not up to the task in week 4. Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano, however, have a much better chance of managing 22 and keeping the game under control.
Oh a Bills fan still thinking their weak interior DL run defense and sketchy LB group is going to stop Henry in the 2nd half. Do you believe in McDermott doing Madden magic to raise the Bills Run defense rating to 90+ by game day too? Hilarious.
@ I don't think I said any of that. I'm just saying that Buffalo has its starters back and are less likely to get absolutely blasted on defense. And the Ravens lost to the Browns and Raiders this year. You're not exactly invincible here.
Ravens were missing their best run stuffer Pierce and still held the Bills to 81 rush yds last time. Bills should be better on run defense but so will the Ravens, and their DTs are enormous. Plus Roquan, and half the secondary got replaced. Ravens defense is a lot better than it was in the early games where they got burned by WR1s. This one could be close but both teams have made notable changes, and I'd give the edge to the Ravens in a run-heavy game.
@@shadowsniper9542 I mean the Bills also laid regular season stinkers as well to the Rams (a hot and cold team) and against an anemic Texans team carried by their pass rush and CJ bombing away. Even when the Bills front 7 are healthy, they don't have the bigger bodies in the trench to stop the run. Nor living in nickel helps them try sell out to stop Lamar/Henry in cold weather on the ground. Its never been a health thing for the Bills run defense more than it is a matchup they concede because of the way their defense is stubbornly coached/built.
@@t4d0Wif you knew Bills ball, you’d know that Henry has 2/6 games against the Bills rushing over 100 yards. The defense has had similar scheme and personnel for years, a few new names. OP is correct saying the starters being present this time do in fact increase their chances of fitting the run better. McDermott can in fact gameplan for Henry. The new layer is obviously Lamar. You might see the Bills force the entire game into Lamar’s hands, and Lamar might not want to get tackled 20 times in this game. Bills might force the game to his throwing and their pass defense is better than their rush. Don’t forget this is the NFL, it’s any given Sunday, no team is invincible, good teams lose to bad teams too, let alone opposing playoff teams.
Actually, I think a lot of Commanders fans thought Tampa was very beatable. Also, with Daniels being clutch at the end of the season, there is a belief that they can win on any given Sunday. The thing about those Commanders scoring efficiency numbers is that they are often their own worst enemy. There are a lot of times they don't score because someone screws up on their end, either a penalty or someone goes the wrong direction, etc. If they play clean, they can score a lot of points. As for Brett's comments, it has been what the gameplan has been for most of the season: limit the time the defense is on the field and hold onto the ball as much as possible. I do believe that they don't stop Gibbs and that it is likely to be a high scoring affair. But, if they can keep it close, it is hard to bet against Daniels.
Moore wasn't bad with the Cowboys. I think he's done a solid job especially working with more talent on offense than the Cowboys and Chargers. However I don't know if the blame is fully on Moore with the routes for Hurts that were easily predictable to DC Halfly and the Packers defense. The only thing I associate with Staley was sticking to Lombardi's molasses ass passing game especially on 3rd/4th downs.
@t4d0W I agree that he wasn't bad with the cowboys but he was nonetheless run out of team as if some glaring impenetrable glass ceiling was being imposed on the team due to him calling plays akin to the current gripes in Steelers fandom about Mike Tomlin.
@@ericwolf9664 I mean just look what McCarthy/Schott did after Moore left. Leaned even more on how top heavy the Cowboys passing game is with more tight window throw routes from Dak and CeeDee being the only real beater of that receiver group. They doubled down on being more predictable and inefficient. Even with Moore's short time with the Chargers he wanted to do more with the run. Didn't help all he had was Ekeler/Joshua Kelley and injuries to an already lackluster IOL. Which is why his best work with the Eagles seems on par because he has the ideal talent to work with. At least when the Eagles aren't playing behind early game and the running game can save the offense.
If we’re leaving in all LA good plays & taking out all eagles big plays plus counting the rams garbage time td then youre right! It was a really close game! Anyone can win in NFL… But forgetting about eagles run game this Eagles defense is legit. Should be a great game
Baltimore abandoned the run in past seasons because they didnt have that dependable back. Gus Edwards stopped being a short yardage machine a year before Roman left, and JK was never healthy in the postseason. That left Justice Hill, Dalvin Cook, and a plethora of other handcuff signings the Ravens had to make every year JK got hurt. Also, Ravens would repeatedly run into defenses that schemed to stop the run. I have MUCH more faith in Monken than Roman to keep the run game churning even if Baltimore falls behind a bit. Henry is the difference maker, not to make Baltimore run, but so they have an ACTUAL weapon in the backfield
I dont believe in it all 5 of the ravens losses henry had less than 20 rushing attempts they get forget when the game gets close every time i have loved henry and i think lamar is a top 3 qb in the league but i will never trust the ravens staff to actually call a good game
Its more like the Ravens run game had a limit with opposing defense knowing Lamar had to be both the arm AND the legs of the team in key situations. Now they get an elite talent like Henry who can still churn big yards in second halves of games, the run game can go both ways when needed. While being able to come from obvious condensed looks or playing spread out.
Is KOC to blame for the Vikings as well? Like how can it be that two seasons in a row they are monsters in the regular season and after thoughts in the post season.
Are you coming back to 2022 where the Vikings were fraudulent in how they won their games in the 4th quarter? Keep in mind the Vikings had *ZERO* playoff expectations to start the 2024 season. Nor expecting Darnold to have a crazy box score season for casual Vikings fans to slurp up. Nor expecting Flores' defense to hold up as it did to start the season to help them with the 6-2 hot start. The realityis the Vikings are closer to their real identity based on how they finished both seasons than the amount of wins they piled up.
Without Dean and Graham, I think the Rams offensive line will hold up a lot better this time around. Plus they get Havenstein at RT for this game and Higbee looked great last week at TE. Will it be enough?
Because the Ravens are the hot team and we saw what happened earlier in the season when they went head-to-head. Granted there's been a ton of ball played since but it's a point of comparison.
Because the Bills have only really big boy'd an AFC SB caliber team in the regular season with the Chiefs. They had two long scoring drives from near the end of the 3rd and the whole 4th quarter that turned to TDs. Which put the Chiefs behind 21-30 and possessions with 2:17 left. Ravens have shown with their offense this season that they can get into shoot outs but when their pass defense can play better (which it has in the last month) can also shorten the game with the Lamar/Henry diverse run game. Which doesn't bode well for the Bills defense that don't have the bodies in the trench to hold off such a strong run game but choose to live in nickel looks.
I'm really nervous about the Ravens, but I think the Bills 100 percent can beat them. Might be a blowout but I'm not expecting it to be on either side unlike the first game.
The Bills would like a blow out but they need to aggressively put points in the first half. That way they can spend the 2nd half going on long scoring drives and seeing less of Lamar/Henry eat up clock as well while the Ravens offense catches up. If the score is close by half time it gives the Ravens offense a chance to dictate the game with their scoring drives eating up clock and limiting possessions. Which both teams will have to test out their ability to do that consistently because whoever wins has to replicate that same game plan vs the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game.
Let's wait to see if they actually get to the superbowl Campbell has done a phenomenal job so far. However let's not forget what happened last year that loss to the 49ers was on him
@@RobertSawney3 dropped passes, a fumble in their own end, and a fluky completion did them in. Campbell did not cost them the game. They were in that Title game because of Campbell 😊
@@JJ-zr6fu ultimately goff cost them with the turnovers but this is what I mean Detroit has been so good but they aren't Kansas city they don't know how to get over the edge. Congratulations Washington 👏🏽
*This* ruclips.net/video/9IjgyFHdVVs/видео.html shows what terrible plays Moore was calling. They're so bad the person who made that video honestly thought they were Brandon Staley's. The same plays are why Dak led the NFL in INTs despite missing 5 games when Moore was in Dallas. Did none of you notice that Dak went from that to being in the MVP discussion when Moore left? How crappy do you have to be for Mike McCarthy to be a full tier better than you? You know about the AJ Brown/Hurts feud? I',m willing to bet Moore is again neutralizing the team's best WRs. It's all he does.
@@ChewsCarefully At least he understands the concept of 2nd half adjustments, which is something greg can't seem to grasp. Sure he might not be as bad as I say but it's so frustrating
@@marskalkblixten Oh, he's actually _worse_ than you're thinking. That video about Moore shows one bad penchant for one style of play, but like most people who don't get it right the first time, he's got a bug up his patootie that it must be the fault of the players executing it. I have videos about what Roman did for the Ravens that kept Lamar pedestrian & it's _way_ worse. Kurt Warner actually got into trouble for exposing it. I can link 'em if you want. Play-calling is actually more important than the QB. Wtf can any QB _do_ when the receivers are sent into coverage? Is there a second set of receivers who then fly freely when that happens like a glitch in the matrix? This is what Justin Fields keeps getting blamed for, play-callers who do this. *"He* (Fields) holds onto the ball too long." No; Nagy was inept, Eberflus a tyrant who would rather lose His Way than win any other, & Arthur Smith is so inept one cannot tell what % of his mix is either of those. The reason is simple. NFL team owners are _business_ owners. They don't know what makes a good or winning coach. & when humans don't understand things, they lose their minds. They either pretend they do (Jerruh Jones) or they become too hands-off (the Jags, Bears, Steelers). What this leaves you with are people the owners do Not Hate with almost No Oversight. Most humans lose their minds even more in such situations. John Gruden is my favorite example. He drags teams down with terrible draft choices _AND_ play-calling. He even has his own YT channel now where he discusses the latter & OMG how simple are his designs. Whereas Bill Bellichick's are so complex I need to rewatch, Gruden's leave me wondering "did he forget 75% of the play?" So you get HCs who have no oversight some who get to choose their coordinators who can do nothing if they don't get along. Fields is a great example here again. He *called out* his own coaches, twice, publicly. The first time, as if fearing exposure the Bears changed their entire offense, averaged 31 ppg then returned to calling plays they knew produced under 20. Any other HC would have been fired for just that, right? Imagine the Jets finding a way to get 2 TDs more a game every game from Zach Wilson then returning to not doing so & Jets fans accepting this. But no one held Eberflus accountable. & now _everyone 'realizes'_ he was to blame for Caleb's failures? No. People still refuse to look at play-calling. I think that they're missing over half of the game by ignoring it.
The Texans path to victory over the Chiefs in my opinion begins and ends with whether or not Patrick Mahomes is struck a meteorite or lightning. If he is not the Texans are gonna get whooped.
Detroit needs to grind it out and eat clock on their offensive possessions against a weak commanders run D. That’s why they are so excited to have Montgomery back. If they can get 7 consistently and take up 7 minutes a drive the commanders will be in desperation mode before halftime and then it just takes one mistake and the game is over. That’ll be Detroit’s game plan
Lean and lean on inside gap runs kinda like the eagles like to do and then a explosive break out play by Gibbs on a zone run block scheme or a sneaky play action to one of the weapons outside Jameson taking the top off the D type play. Eat the clock with your best unit on the field and keep #5 on the sideline
@@ConnorMcElvain Don't run inside gaps, instead get outside of their defense. Their team has consistently been bad at crack replacements with outside runs. Bucky had a big one in the bucks game, Saquon did the same in the eagles game, as well as the the cowboys RB. Getting Gibbs on the outside is the way to go.
@ I honestly haven’t watched much Commanders film so I’ll say hell yeah I agree with you Gibbs in space is filthy but you gotta be setting up those Gibbs to the edges plays with Monty/gibbs and the O line controlling and dominating the line of scrimmage? 4 yards per carry is keeping the drive moving, Make them fear the inside so those linebackers will pinch and crash and create those open edges for Gibbs to accelerate into the second level and make a man miss, that’s how he’ll break a couple. If you just pound the outside the commanders linebackers will adjust and start dropping behind edges and into flats to slow him down and make him go back inside or lateral to the sideline
@ for most teams that’s the strat, but for them it’s actually the opposite. The eagles gashed them with outside run’s and got their LB’s running to the side line, then punch it in the middle after. There interior line are stout run stoppers. But there edges are the soft spot on there line
@ alright I can get behind it. I still just don’t think they have a chance of stopping Detroit’s run game in any facet and that Detroit will want to control TOP and keep Daniel’s on the sideline, but if that’s the way they do it and it works I’ll come back here and give you your flowers lol
Would be the case against average teams. Thing is Lions play man and even if they try go even in the box, Jayden Daniels as a runner is still a threat. Which also opens things up for the other Commanders runners as well. The power of having a scrambling QB just messing up the run fit against a defense.
Maybe ive been watching too many Isaac Punts videos but you cant count out special teams in these games! For these underdogs if they can steal a possession via a muffed/blocked punt, fake field goal/punt, blocked PAT/FG or even an onside kick can swing that game to the underdogs favor. Obviously its hard to predict that stuff but I thinkits worth mentioning
C'mon EJ, can we at least apply some basic stats? The Lions curse thing at 6-11 is absolute BS, and not even a mild statistical anomaly. I haven't calculated the standard deviation, but the average number of wins per team this season was just over 8, and 19 of the 32 teams had between 5-11 wins. For normally distributed data we would expect 68% of all values to fall within one standard deviation of the mean, so 6 wins very likely sits in the heart of normality. Maybe if teams had a record of 1-16, or 2-15 we could start to entertain that conversation. However, we would also need to see that happen for another year or two before you could realistically start talking about causality, and not a one off statistical anomaly.
Too much focus on advanced stats. GB’s d-line play had moments this year but for the most part, teams with good o-lines were given clean pockets. The sacks against Philly were coverage sacks. They need a star edge bad. Gary is good but his explosiveness off the ball is gone.
it is SO refreshing to hear a level headed discussion about the Eagles/Rams based in REALITY. thank you so much for this. you have no idea what this week has been like for me! 😭😭😭
What’s even crazier about that Bucs/Commanders game was how bad the playcalling was by Kliff. They should’ve won by more, but Kliff wouldn’t stop going for it on fourth down instead of taking the points.
49:34 Al-Shair playing this game is a game changer for the Texans. The league stretched his suspension just to make sure he wasn't in that chiefs game earlier. He's gonna play, and even on a bruised knee he's gonna make Mahomes' day painful
@@papasropo Everyone says this but can't point to any history. The 3 fines he had before the T Law hit were for fighting 2 times and once for a face mask
Tbf there hasn't been a lot of 9ers news to talk about this year outside of the injury report and looming cap troubles that'll be center stage this off-season
Sure. Talking about the same old thing with key NIners players going out with injuries and contributing to a less than stellar recordin the NFC West. Doesn't help part of the O-line is older and there are more holes to fill than the one Puni pick did.
@ it’s not cherry picking data. It’s providing context to the stat EJ gave. Yes, Akers ran for 65 yards & 10 a carry, but he got 58 of them on one run. It was the longest run they’ve given up all season and one of two they’ve given up over 40 yards. It is an outlier which is why the context was necessary
I enjoy your content, and I know you gotta pay your bills, but all this betting material is driving me away. It’s like you guys sold out to underdog, and it’s frustrating. I used to watch 100% of your material a few years ago, now I rarely tune in.
Bo Nix also isn't great under pressure. I like him a lot, particularly for his athleticism which was clearly underrated in the scouting process, but the dude still has a happy feet problem and doesn't seem to make the best decisions when he's being pressured. He wasn't the problem in Buffalo, like that throw to Troy Franklin was awesome and he made some other great plays as well. But am I alone in thinking that he didn't do a lot to elevate the team either? Jayden Daniels has a worse offensive line and a similar skilled player group, but he clearly elevated the guys around him, not only with a similar level of mobility but also with more accurate throws.
I don't think it was hype than having a feasible way to win vs the Bills which is a really ugly game. The defense certainly needed to do more since even against the Ravens months ago, they 'bothered' Lamar and even got to him a couple times in the pocket. Then Lamar just shrugged it off and proceeded to do his thing. It is also true that Allen can attack the Broncos linebackers in coverage. As well as just showing Payton how to play big boy football with the Bills run game.
It seems like you guys think the rams have less of a chance of beating the eagles then the commanders have of beating the lions. That’s insane. I like you guys, but sometimes you say the dumbest shit.
“Shit talk” Detroit fans have serious victim complexes this season. Any time an analyst brings up a single criticism they’re labeled as “haters.” You guys want to be predicted like an unbeatable juggernaut, but also want to be the plucky underdogs for all the injuries you’ve had on defense. You can’t have both.
@@sknight43 I think its been happening for 2 seasons straight. There are key injuries that have limited them for having a realistically deeper playoff run but why can't their fans be happy about being the exact opposite of what the Lions has been for nearly NINE decades? Hell I even find the unwarranted Stafford slander coming from supposed Lions fans themselves pretty sketchy.
@@t4d0Wanecdotally I strongly suspect *those* Detroit fans are bandwagoneers for the most part. The OG Detroit fans I've spoken to are just loving not being shite.
If you take away all rushes over ten yards Saquon still averaged 4.87ypc. The context is worthless, because as Brett says right after his comment about removing said 10+ yard runs is that the Eagles offensive philosophy is based on Saquon and the OL grinding defenses out and then popping an explosive run play in the latter half of games.
I did NOT say that they did not do anything. I said that they were grinding out four yard runs to stay on track until they popped a big one. So to stop that, you have to get early down TFLs via blitzes to take the run game off the table. Do not let your anger make you hear something that someone did not say.
@BootlegFootball I thought "peak idiot" was a compliment. It's 7.30am on a Friday morning here in the UK and I can only muster "mid idiot" at best myself 😂
Oh shit a football show where they talk about the game of football. It's surprisingly hard to find these nowadays
yea it’s all fantasy focused smh
it's really not
There is a balance where people do try talk the football and relate it to fantasy. But even the fantasy discussion is pretty narrowed down compared to when people had more choices in the regular season. So you are getting more football talk in January regardless.
They also talk about the betting shit. Awful.
Brett is the best, and his buddy is great too
I listened to every episode of this show during the pre-draft, draft, and preseason; but have only listened intermittently during the season. HUGE mistake! This is the best weekly matchup content I've seen this year. You guys crush it! Got to put my podcast priorities in check here
36:17 "if they can keep Detroit to like, 30 to 32,"
JUST IN TIME FOR MY DRIVE TO MY CLIENT LETS FUCKING GOOOOO
I hadn’t allowed myself to even think about the Rams coming to Detroit. I’m not sure what could be more poetic than them fighting to go to the superbowl. Also, the Stafford/Goff trade keeps proving to be one of the best of all time?
If the lions win a Super Bowl I think goes down as one of the best win-win trades in all of sports
@@JayStaCruz I still think The Lions got the better of the deal considering who they drafted with the draft picks.
@@Steve_643 rams wouldnt have won the super bowl. potential is potential
@@Steve_643yeah but the Rams won a super bowl directly as a result of it
@@Steve_643 Cant ever say that if the Rams come out of the trade with a SB win and the Lions dont. If the Lions win the SB at any point during those guys careers, then sure you can give the edge to the Lions in the trade but its still a win win imo
This the best football talk on RUclips
Best breakdowns and takes on RUclips. 🙌🏼🔥
Finally a football show that understands that Jalen is a pretty good quarterback and the Rams are true underdogs in this game.
Can they win, absolutely, but even their best gameplan is still built on the hopes that Philly has a bad passing game as well.
As a Texans fan im just happy to be here
enjoy, you won't be here for long
No we need to win now. I thought we would be a playoff power after 2019. I want to make mahomes cry after put choke job.
@@markfein462 some of you Lions fans have gotten real insufferable in the past few months
Someone has to win the AFC South. If Baalke/Ballard/lol whoever is running the Titans can't get their shit together, then Nick Caserio can hang his hat on HC Demeco Ryans with his pass rush/defense and CJ going off.
Here before they edited the title. (Ily guys I'm sorry)
Got the screenshot if ya want brother 😂
RUclips has a fun habit of taking all of the changes we make in studio and then completely ignoring them sometimes lmao
I just noticed this - somehow it showed correctly in my feed before I clicked, but doesn't in the player?
@@Tonymarshall11 i nabbed it too, lol
@@Tonymarshall11whatd it say
Im working a closing shift and will have to miss my commanders second plaoff game this year!!!!! Im so beyond bummed that i have to miss that game, but im happy we made it.
Find coverage! Catch Covid. Home rest
Long time fan and love the show. Would be awesome to hear more about EJs backdrop wood wall. Is there is episode where he talked about it in detail. I would love to do something like that.
Hey Brett, go watch that Philly vs rams game. It wasn't 3-4 yard runs, it was 8-9 yard runs, over and over again
Andy Reid has rested players the similar amount of time prior to super bowl run of 57. It was around 21-23 days if I’m not mistaken. Don’t think it is rust and just got our CB2 back!
Also DHOP going for season high in yds this game
Hammered bills -13.5 alt spread vs broncos bc of all the reasons Brett stated on the opening of this video.
Does the Dan Campbell effect get double credit for the Bears head coach getting fired after playing them in November?
It's funny how this is the 4 teams I expected to be left in the AFC preseason, but I expected the Bills to be the weakest one and it's arguably the strongest while the Texans almost seem like they don't belong.
As an Arizona state fan I will always thank Herm Edwards recruiting Jayden Daniels and witnessing bro that 1 year in the uniform. Fast forward he won his first playoff game as a rookie, hopefully Washington keeps a good staff around him. Brother is elite
I think something that needed to be said but wasn't for the breakdown of Det vs. Was - they said Det gave up 120 to Minn on 19 carries, averaging 6.3/rush. Akers averaged 10.8/rush. While true, yes, he got 65 yards on 6 carries - and 58 of those 65 yards came on 1 carry. You take that 58 yard run out, and Minn got 62 yards on 18 carries - about 3.5/rush. So one run by Cam Akers is SEVERELY inflating the numbers
Ah, the division round - where we analyse why everyone's bracket is completely borked after the wild cards!
I feel like an idiot picking Minnesota over LA and LA over Houston. Should’ve known the Vikings/Chargers would do what they always do.
@@treysonmcgrady4750omg chargers made me so mad i bet on herbert to have less than 31.5 attempts and bro threw his 4th interception on his 32nd pass to end the game like if it doesnt work dont do it
Chargers screwed my otherwise perfect bracket smh
Nothing better than gym session with you two 💪
Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day, give a man Detroit vs LA in the championship game and he'll eat for a lifetime
BOOTLEG! Also, more Bootleg, you are forbidden to sleep through SB. Manage that and I substitute one bottle of Malort with some Highland Park. Your choice which label 8>D Seriously though love the show guys, thanks!
PS, AG in the Lions DB Room- "Not much to tell ya guys, stay limber, once in a while Kerby will be back there to help. But don't count on it. Ok gotta go, see ya Sunday"
Interesting bit about the Lions 3rd down defense. We play the Most cover one on third down of any team by a lot. Detroit also has the best third down defense in the league. I would assume that that is not a coincidence. But yeah, Jaden Daniels makes me real nervous. And their is a good chance that Bryan Branch will probably get some debatable roughing the passer and or unnecessary roughness call thrown on him when he hits Jaden Daniels on one of those runs.
A pretty underrated storyline for Bills/Ravens is that in Week 4, Buffalo was missing both of their starting linebackers. Buffalo's run fits rely pretty heavily on their backers to make up for their love of the 5th DB and lack of a true run stuffer in the IDL, and Baylon Spector (2nd career start) and Dorian Williams (6th career start) just were not up to the task in week 4. Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano, however, have a much better chance of managing 22 and keeping the game under control.
Oh a Bills fan still thinking their weak interior DL run defense and sketchy LB group is going to stop Henry in the 2nd half. Do you believe in McDermott doing Madden magic to raise the Bills Run defense rating to 90+ by game day too? Hilarious.
@ I don't think I said any of that. I'm just saying that Buffalo has its starters back and are less likely to get absolutely blasted on defense. And the Ravens lost to the Browns and Raiders this year. You're not exactly invincible here.
Ravens were missing their best run stuffer Pierce and still held the Bills to 81 rush yds last time. Bills should be better on run defense but so will the Ravens, and their DTs are enormous. Plus Roquan, and half the secondary got replaced. Ravens defense is a lot better than it was in the early games where they got burned by WR1s. This one could be close but both teams have made notable changes, and I'd give the edge to the Ravens in a run-heavy game.
@@shadowsniper9542 I mean the Bills also laid regular season stinkers as well to the Rams (a hot and cold team) and against an anemic Texans team carried by their pass rush and CJ bombing away. Even when the Bills front 7 are healthy, they don't have the bigger bodies in the trench to stop the run. Nor living in nickel helps them try sell out to stop Lamar/Henry in cold weather on the ground. Its never been a health thing for the Bills run defense more than it is a matchup they concede because of the way their defense is stubbornly coached/built.
@@t4d0Wif you knew Bills ball, you’d know that Henry has 2/6 games against the Bills rushing over 100 yards. The defense has had similar scheme and personnel for years, a few new names. OP is correct saying the starters being present this time do in fact increase their chances of fitting the run better. McDermott can in fact gameplan for Henry. The new layer is obviously Lamar. You might see the Bills force the entire game into Lamar’s hands, and Lamar might not want to get tackled 20 times in this game. Bills might force the game to his throwing and their pass defense is better than their rush. Don’t forget this is the NFL, it’s any given Sunday, no team is invincible, good teams lose to bad teams too, let alone opposing playoff teams.
Last week I liked the Broncos, this week I like the Texans, and I’m sure that I will continue to get it wrong
Josh Allen being 9 for 11 against the blitz must have made Coach McDermott REALLY happy 🤣
Actually, I think a lot of Commanders fans thought Tampa was very beatable. Also, with Daniels being clutch at the end of the season, there is a belief that they can win on any given Sunday.
The thing about those Commanders scoring efficiency numbers is that they are often their own worst enemy. There are a lot of times they don't score because someone screws up on their end, either a penalty or someone goes the wrong direction, etc. If they play clean, they can score a lot of points. As for Brett's comments, it has been what the gameplan has been for most of the season: limit the time the defense is on the field and hold onto the ball as much as possible. I do believe that they don't stop Gibbs and that it is likely to be a high scoring affair. But, if they can keep it close, it is hard to bet against Daniels.
Whole lotta drops. I think our entire receiving corps has Nelson Agholor hands. If we catch balls (like we did against Tampa) we are a problem
will be tailing these picks
I find it to be so funny how Kellen Moore is doing well outside of the cowboys. Granted the stink of staley is still lingering for the moment.
Moore wasn't bad with the Cowboys. I think he's done a solid job especially working with more talent on offense than the Cowboys and Chargers. However I don't know if the blame is fully on Moore with the routes for Hurts that were easily predictable to DC Halfly and the Packers defense. The only thing I associate with Staley was sticking to Lombardi's molasses ass passing game especially on 3rd/4th downs.
@t4d0W I agree that he wasn't bad with the cowboys but he was nonetheless run out of team as if some glaring impenetrable glass ceiling was being imposed on the team due to him calling plays akin to the current gripes in Steelers fandom about Mike Tomlin.
@@ericwolf9664 I mean just look what McCarthy/Schott did after Moore left. Leaned even more on how top heavy the Cowboys passing game is with more tight window throw routes from Dak and CeeDee being the only real beater of that receiver group. They doubled down on being more predictable and inefficient. Even with Moore's short time with the Chargers he wanted to do more with the run. Didn't help all he had was Ekeler/Joshua Kelley and injuries to an already lackluster IOL. Which is why his best work with the Eagles seems on par because he has the ideal talent to work with. At least when the Eagles aren't playing behind early game and the running game can save the offense.
Good lord this channel is underrated. Good job fellas
If we’re leaving in all LA good plays & taking out all eagles big plays plus counting the rams garbage time td then youre right! It was a really close game! Anyone can win in NFL… But forgetting about eagles run game this Eagles defense is legit. Should be a great game
Baltimore abandoned the run in past seasons because they didnt have that dependable back. Gus Edwards stopped being a short yardage machine a year before Roman left, and JK was never healthy in the postseason. That left Justice Hill, Dalvin Cook, and a plethora of other handcuff signings the Ravens had to make every year JK got hurt.
Also, Ravens would repeatedly run into defenses that schemed to stop the run. I have MUCH more faith in Monken than Roman to keep the run game churning even if Baltimore falls behind a bit. Henry is the difference maker, not to make Baltimore run, but so they have an ACTUAL weapon in the backfield
I dont believe in it all 5 of the ravens losses henry had less than 20 rushing attempts they get forget when the game gets close every time i have loved henry and i think lamar is a top 3 qb in the league but i will never trust the ravens staff to actually call a good game
Its more like the Ravens run game had a limit with opposing defense knowing Lamar had to be both the arm AND the legs of the team in key situations. Now they get an elite talent like Henry who can still churn big yards in second halves of games, the run game can go both ways when needed. While being able to come from obvious condensed looks or playing spread out.
Is KOC to blame for the Vikings as well? Like how can it be that two seasons in a row they are monsters in the regular season and after thoughts in the post season.
They went 7-10 last year and missed the playoffs, I wouldn't count that as being regular-season monsters
Are you coming back to 2022 where the Vikings were fraudulent in how they won their games in the 4th quarter? Keep in mind the Vikings had *ZERO* playoff expectations to start the 2024 season. Nor expecting Darnold to have a crazy box score season for casual Vikings fans to slurp up. Nor expecting Flores' defense to hold up as it did to start the season to help them with the 6-2 hot start. The realityis the Vikings are closer to their real identity based on how they finished both seasons than the amount of wins they piled up.
Will Lamar ever be able to make a over the shoulder sideline throw
Without Dean and Graham, I think the Rams offensive line will hold up a lot better this time around. Plus they get Havenstein at RT for this game and Higbee looked great last week at TE. Will it be enough?
Graham got replaced by more snaps for Nolan Smith, who has 5 sacks in his last 6 games
Why does all analysis of the Ravens-Bills game center around what the Bills can do to beat the Ravens? Very interesting…
Because the Ravens are the hot team and we saw what happened earlier in the season when they went head-to-head. Granted there's been a ton of ball played since but it's a point of comparison.
Because the Bills have only really big boy'd an AFC SB caliber team in the regular season with the Chiefs. They had two long scoring drives from near the end of the 3rd and the whole 4th quarter that turned to TDs. Which put the Chiefs behind 21-30 and possessions with 2:17 left. Ravens have shown with their offense this season that they can get into shoot outs but when their pass defense can play better (which it has in the last month) can also shorten the game with the Lamar/Henry diverse run game. Which doesn't bode well for the Bills defense that don't have the bodies in the trench to hold off such a strong run game but choose to live in nickel looks.
9 minute Crowd!!!
... wife would be enthralled with that amount of time....
I'm very surprised that yall didn't mention the texans secondary very much
The best!
its actually "Borne out"
I'm really nervous about the Ravens, but I think the Bills 100 percent can beat them. Might be a blowout but I'm not expecting it to be on either side unlike the first game.
The Bills would like a blow out but they need to aggressively put points in the first half. That way they can spend the 2nd half going on long scoring drives and seeing less of Lamar/Henry eat up clock as well while the Ravens offense catches up. If the score is close by half time it gives the Ravens offense a chance to dictate the game with their scoring drives eating up clock and limiting possessions. Which both teams will have to test out their ability to do that consistently because whoever wins has to replicate that same game plan vs the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game.
@t4d0W who gets the ball first and at half will dictate how things go.
Can we have an apology on Dan Campbell you guys didn’t think he’d succeed at all and now he’s a top coach?
Let's wait to see if they actually get to the superbowl Campbell has done a phenomenal job so far. However let's not forget what happened last year that loss to the 49ers was on him
So do you Lions fans this season come off as victim or a bully? Cuz you can't do both.
@@RobertSawney3 dropped passes, a fumble in their own end, and a fluky completion did them in.
Campbell did not cost them the game.
They were in that Title game because of Campbell 😊
@@JJ-zr6fu ultimately goff cost them with the turnovers but this is what I mean Detroit has been so good but they aren't Kansas city they don't know how to get over the edge. Congratulations Washington 👏🏽
Brett, please explain to me why the HELL we didnt keep KELLEN MOORE and signed GREG ROMAN I am going to have a STROKE
Because you have a Harbaugh at HC. That's literally it.
@mars7304 MAKE IT STOP I DONT WANT TO THROW 3 STRAIGHT DOWNFIELD SHOTS IN A PLAYOFF GAME
*This* ruclips.net/video/9IjgyFHdVVs/видео.html shows what terrible plays Moore was calling. They're so bad the person who made that video honestly thought they were Brandon Staley's.
The same plays are why Dak led the NFL in INTs despite missing 5 games when Moore was in Dallas. Did none of you notice that Dak went from that to being in the MVP discussion when Moore left?
How crappy do you have to be for Mike McCarthy to be a full tier better than you? You know about the AJ Brown/Hurts feud? I',m willing to bet Moore is again neutralizing the team's best WRs.
It's all he does.
@@ChewsCarefully At least he understands the concept of 2nd half adjustments, which is something greg can't seem to grasp. Sure he might not be as bad as I say but it's so frustrating
@@marskalkblixten Oh, he's actually _worse_ than you're thinking. That video about Moore shows one bad penchant for one style of play, but like most people who don't get it right the first time, he's got a bug up his patootie that it must be the fault of the players executing it. I have videos about what Roman did for the Ravens that kept Lamar pedestrian & it's _way_ worse.
Kurt Warner actually got into trouble for exposing it. I can link 'em if you want. Play-calling is actually more important than the QB. Wtf can any QB _do_ when the receivers are sent into coverage? Is there a second set of receivers who then fly freely when that happens like a glitch in the matrix? This is what Justin Fields keeps getting blamed for, play-callers who do this. *"He* (Fields) holds onto the ball too long."
No; Nagy was inept, Eberflus a tyrant who would rather lose His Way than win any other, & Arthur Smith is so inept one cannot tell what % of his mix is either of those. The reason is simple.
NFL team owners are _business_ owners. They don't know what makes a good or winning coach. & when humans don't understand things, they lose their minds. They either pretend they do (Jerruh Jones) or they become too hands-off (the Jags, Bears, Steelers). What this leaves you with are people the owners do Not Hate with almost No Oversight.
Most humans lose their minds even more in such situations. John Gruden is my favorite example. He drags teams down with terrible draft choices _AND_ play-calling. He even has his own YT channel now where he discusses the latter & OMG how simple are his designs. Whereas Bill Bellichick's are so complex I need to rewatch, Gruden's leave me wondering "did he forget 75% of the play?"
So you get HCs who have no oversight some who get to choose their coordinators who can do nothing if they don't get along. Fields is a great example here again. He *called out* his own coaches, twice, publicly. The first time, as if fearing exposure the Bears changed their entire offense, averaged 31 ppg then returned to calling plays they knew produced under 20.
Any other HC would have been fired for just that, right? Imagine the Jets finding a way to get 2 TDs more a game every game from Zach Wilson then returning to not doing so & Jets fans accepting this.
But no one held Eberflus accountable. & now _everyone 'realizes'_ he was to blame for Caleb's failures? No. People still refuse to look at play-calling. I think that they're missing over half of the game by ignoring it.
The Texans path to victory over the Chiefs in my opinion begins and ends with whether or not Patrick Mahomes is struck a meteorite or lightning. If he is not the Texans are gonna get whooped.
:(
Stafford coming back to Detroit in the NFC championship game would be made into a movie in 2045
And it will still take that much longer to make.
Detroit needs to grind it out and eat clock on their offensive possessions against a weak commanders run D. That’s why they are so excited to have Montgomery back. If they can get 7 consistently and take up 7 minutes a drive the commanders will be in desperation mode before halftime and then it just takes one mistake and the game is over. That’ll be Detroit’s game plan
Lean and lean on inside gap runs kinda like the eagles like to do and then a explosive break out play by Gibbs on a zone run block scheme or a sneaky play action to one of the weapons outside Jameson taking the top off the D type play. Eat the clock with your best unit on the field and keep #5 on the sideline
@@ConnorMcElvain Don't run inside gaps, instead get outside of their defense. Their team has consistently been bad at crack replacements with outside runs. Bucky had a big one in the bucks game, Saquon did the same in the eagles game, as well as the the cowboys RB. Getting Gibbs on the outside is the way to go.
@ I honestly haven’t watched much Commanders film so I’ll say hell yeah I agree with you Gibbs in space is filthy but you gotta be setting up those Gibbs to the edges plays with Monty/gibbs and the O line controlling and dominating the line of scrimmage? 4 yards per carry is keeping the drive moving, Make them fear the inside so those linebackers will pinch and crash and create those open edges for Gibbs to accelerate into the second level and make a man miss, that’s how he’ll break a couple. If you just pound the outside the commanders linebackers will adjust and start dropping behind edges and into flats to slow him down and make him go back inside or lateral to the sideline
@ for most teams that’s the strat, but for them it’s actually the opposite. The eagles gashed them with outside run’s and got their LB’s running to the side line, then punch it in the middle after. There interior line are stout run stoppers. But there edges are the soft spot on there line
@ alright I can get behind it. I still just don’t think they have a chance of stopping Detroit’s run game in any facet and that Detroit will want to control TOP and keep Daniel’s on the sideline, but if that’s the way they do it and it works I’ll come back here and give you your flowers lol
Lions commanders might be close at halftime but i expect Detroit to pull away in the 3rd, this team is on a mission and Washington is in the way
Jerod Mayo Effect > Dan Campbell Effect
Look what they did to JJ. The lions can cover Terry.
Lions have a great run defense.
Would be the case against average teams. Thing is Lions play man and even if they try go even in the box, Jayden Daniels as a runner is still a threat. Which also opens things up for the other Commanders runners as well. The power of having a scrambling QB just messing up the run fit against a defense.
Kalif Raymond will be the difference maker for the Lions. book it
joe thuney confirmed starter at LT lol
Chiefs just announced Thuney is starting LT. This game is over
Rams are winning this…. And I’m an Eagle’s fan. NFL loves their narratives, and the Rams fill two if they win.
Thuney has played well for an OG playing OT.. but they have Gabe him alot of help via chippin or TE help… no way Thuney can shut down Danielle 1 on 1
mix of porous bucs secondary and jayden daniels playing the best football of his life makes me a sad bucs fan.
Gents it's "was borne out".
I'll show myself out.
I remember when Brett thought the Giants were gonna beat the Eagles this season 😂😂😂
Maybe ive been watching too many Isaac Punts videos but you cant count out special teams in these games! For these underdogs if they can steal a possession via a muffed/blocked punt, fake field goal/punt, blocked PAT/FG or even an onside kick can swing that game to the underdogs favor. Obviously its hard to predict that stuff but I thinkits worth mentioning
#KeepPounding Bryce top 10
15:13 so what I’m hearing is that actually my pats should get the number 1 pick because we’re the worst ! 😢
Detroit vs everybody
C'mon EJ, can we at least apply some basic stats? The Lions curse thing at 6-11 is absolute BS, and not even a mild statistical anomaly.
I haven't calculated the standard deviation, but the average number of wins per team this season was just over 8, and 19 of the 32 teams had between 5-11 wins. For normally distributed data we would expect 68% of all values to fall within one standard deviation of the mean, so 6 wins very likely sits in the heart of normality.
Maybe if teams had a record of 1-16, or 2-15 we could start to entertain that conversation.
However, we would also need to see that happen for another year or two before you could realistically start talking about causality, and not a one off statistical anomaly.
Too much focus on advanced stats. GB’s d-line play had moments this year but for the most part, teams with good o-lines were given clean pockets. The sacks against Philly were coverage sacks. They need a star edge bad. Gary is good but his explosiveness off the ball is gone.
it is SO refreshing to hear a level headed discussion about the Eagles/Rams based in REALITY. thank you so much for this. you have no idea what this week has been like for me! 😭😭😭
What’s even crazier about that Bucs/Commanders game was how bad the playcalling was by Kliff. They should’ve won by more, but Kliff wouldn’t stop going for it on fourth down instead of taking the points.
49:34 Al-Shair playing this game is a game changer for the Texans. The league stretched his suspension just to make sure he wasn't in that chiefs game earlier. He's gonna play, and even on a bruised knee he's gonna make Mahomes' day painful
maybe he should’ve just not hit a player who’s sliding down? just a thought
@@papasropo 3 game suspension a first time offender is what was ridiculous
@@King_Immanuel first time offender💀 just the first time he’s been called he’s one of the dirtiest players in the league
@@papasropo Everyone says this but can't point to any history. The 3 fines he had before the T Law hit were for fighting 2 times and once for a face mask
Why are the Texans getting on the plane?
How does that crow taste Brett?
delicious lol
Still better than Malort.
Remember when you guys said youd be talking a lot about the 49ers about now in the offseason and werent gonna cover them much in-season?
Yeahhhhh
Tbf there hasn't been a lot of 9ers news to talk about this year outside of the injury report and looming cap troubles that'll be center stage this off-season
Sure. Talking about the same old thing with key NIners players going out with injuries and contributing to a less than stellar recordin the NFC West. Doesn't help part of the O-line is older and there are more holes to fill than the one Puni pick did.
Take out Akers 58 yard run and the Vikings ran for 62 yards on 18 carries. That’s just 3.4 per carry. Context matters here
Yeah so does cherry picking your data to make stats to fit your narrative. Can't just erase 1 play like that.
@ it’s not cherry picking data. It’s providing context to the stat EJ gave. Yes, Akers ran for 65 yards & 10 a carry, but he got 58 of them on one run. It was the longest run they’ve given up all season and one of two they’ve given up over 40 yards. It is an outlier which is why the context was necessary
Yes, their rush D was good except that one time when it was awful.
I enjoy your content, and I know you gotta pay your bills, but all this betting material is driving me away. It’s like you guys sold out to underdog, and it’s frustrating.
I used to watch 100% of your material a few years ago, now I rarely tune in.
Rams not good enough to even make the thumbnail…damn.
Never understood the hype behind Denver, that defense had shown it was susceptible to big plays.
Bo Nix also isn't great under pressure. I like him a lot, particularly for his athleticism which was clearly underrated in the scouting process, but the dude still has a happy feet problem and doesn't seem to make the best decisions when he's being pressured.
He wasn't the problem in Buffalo, like that throw to Troy Franklin was awesome and he made some other great plays as well. But am I alone in thinking that he didn't do a lot to elevate the team either? Jayden Daniels has a worse offensive line and a similar skilled player group, but he clearly elevated the guys around him, not only with a similar level of mobility but also with more accurate throws.
I don't think it was hype than having a feasible way to win vs the Bills which is a really ugly game. The defense certainly needed to do more since even against the Ravens months ago, they 'bothered' Lamar and even got to him a couple times in the pocket. Then Lamar just shrugged it off and proceeded to do his thing. It is also true that Allen can attack the Broncos linebackers in coverage. As well as just showing Payton how to play big boy football with the Bills run game.
It seems like you guys think the rams have less of a chance of beating the eagles then the commanders have of beating the lions. That’s insane. I like you guys, but sometimes you say the dumbest shit.
Haven't even watched it, but I know Brett is gonna shit talk Detroit.
“Shit talk” Detroit fans have serious victim complexes this season. Any time an analyst brings up a single criticism they’re labeled as “haters.” You guys want to be predicted like an unbeatable juggernaut, but also want to be the plucky underdogs for all the injuries you’ve had on defense. You can’t have both.
@@sknight43 I think its been happening for 2 seasons straight. There are key injuries that have limited them for having a realistically deeper playoff run but why can't their fans be happy about being the exact opposite of what the Lions has been for nearly NINE decades? Hell I even find the unwarranted Stafford slander coming from supposed Lions fans themselves pretty sketchy.
@@t4d0Wanecdotally I strongly suspect *those* Detroit fans are bandwagoneers for the most part. The OG Detroit fans I've spoken to are just loving not being shite.
Brett: He only ran 26 times for 255... but if you take away the fact he ran for 255 then i mean they didn't really do anything. Peak idiot.
It’s good context for the statistics.
If you take away all rushes over ten yards Saquon still averaged 4.87ypc. The context is worthless, because as Brett says right after his comment about removing said 10+ yard runs is that the Eagles offensive philosophy is based on Saquon and the OL grinding defenses out and then popping an explosive run play in the latter half of games.
I did NOT say that they did not do anything. I said that they were grinding out four yard runs to stay on track until they popped a big one. So to stop that, you have to get early down TFLs via blitzes to take the run game off the table.
Do not let your anger make you hear something that someone did not say.
@BootlegFootball I thought "peak idiot" was a compliment. It's 7.30am on a Friday morning here in the UK and I can only muster "mid idiot" at best myself 😂
the glaze for jaden and pat is insane xD
These guys are Bears fans and never give the lions the respect they deserve. Yawn
I think we all know why the texans wont beat the chiefs
Because theyare not very good.