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My lord! Again! You are trully great at sharing science to a larger audience. Your presentation of the scientific article is so good! Sharing how and why these articles are written is such a great way of lowering the threshold for people with no accademic background. Amazing work all of you who share stuff for Shawn to use in his presentations!🎉
4:13 So, the Svartsengi station moved about 1200 millimeters or 1.2 meters to the west within a year. I think this is a very impressive speed. Obviously, there are long periods when continental plates barely move away from each other, and others when the movement speeds up significantly for a period of time. Thanks for the interesting video 👋🏻👴🏼
If you measure at a GPS station in the middle of a tectonic plate, then movement is slow and steady. However, if you measure at a plate margin (divergent - as in Iceland, or convergent or wrench), then you get stick-slip behaviour. The rocks bind together and accumulate stress, slowly and imperceptible stretching, compressing, or deforming over months and years until something breaks. Then there is a jump of movement, in seconds of real time, and an earthquake.
Very interesting paper on the multiple magma reservoirs. Sounds like it’s a lot more complex down there than just one source, one vent. There’s a whole herd of sources, reservoirs and pathways for “who wants to go topside this time? And which path do ya want-a take?”
Yes, that was a "quick summary" -- and so packed with information. Love the charts, maps, graphs, summaries of professional papers along with your discussions. In this episode, I learned about dynamic magma domains and the chemistry of the recent eruptions on Iceland. . hahhha-
Thanks for the update Shawn. It looks to me like the 4-5 week estimate is the time when the inflation matches the last eruption. Since each eruption pushes the bar higher, my guess would be that we'll be well into December, possibly even into January, before the next one. Like you, I'm used to reading scientific papers, and also like you, it's amazing how adjacent disciplines can be impenetrable. Long gone are the days when scientists could know everything about everything. I wish the scientific community would devote more effort on making the various disciplines more accessible to those working in other fields. I'm glad that you're fulfilling this role for geology.
Thank you for the update Shawn. With regards to the magma plumbing system you describe it sounded like you were describing the interior of an ant mound. Interesting to say the least.
Thank you! The paper you explained is very interesting and the graphic helped me a lot to understand what possibly is going on underground. Can’t wait for the conclusions after the August eruption!
Thank you for the update, Shawn. You make the scientific paper easy to understand. I've never had any scientific background, my degrees are within the Humanities and the Arts, so this is all new to me.
Very cool :) Many thanks for this informative update and for the follow-up regarding the article in Science, Shawn! I really like the cross section and found your explanations about the different magmas and separate magma reservoirs very helpful :) Will definitely try to read the full article if you can put it on your website.
It's extraordinary that all that complexity deep underground results in relatively steady uplift under Svartsengi and fairly predictable eruptions in terms of premonitory earthquakes, timing and magma volume. I wonder is this more evidence for a layer-cake structure in the deeper crust like that revealed by the Svartsengi boreholes?
Thanks you Shawn. Just when I was wondering where this reservoirs were you present the graphic of magma depths and sources. Always enjoy you presentations.
thanks so much for this follow up, I was too busy keep an eye on the great job you and your team always do, but I am feeling that I didnot lose the connection to the "hot stuff" - have a nice weekend, time will be becoming rough and tough... greetings, Crissy
Thanks again, shawn. While I follow and watch what is happening there, I enjoy your explinations, graphs and round ups for fuller clarity you provide. One gripe though, what happened to your motion sensor light? Bring it back, lol. thanks again, and to those who contribute to your content, for giving your time for us.
Loving your updates and insights, thank you. Could you give us some insights into the Katla volcano please. It's way overdue and has been quietly rattling away. Thank you again.
We tend to think of ground being solid and unchanging in Australia but it's obviously more dynamic in iceland thanks for the update wendy albany western Australia
Thanks Shawn, All interesting researchbut I'd like to also see why the lava doesn't get straight up to Blue Lagoon due to either dense rock, water and cracks guiding magma flow to Sundnukur currently.
Hi Shawn, can you please explain a bit the rainbow satellite images (not featured in this update but you sometimes show them) in some of your next videos? I am so confused about them. I understand the bulls eye where the magma storage is, that's very expected. What I don't understand is the rest of the map. The whole map is colourful, which I interpret as movement literally everywhere in whole Iceland. Is it the case? Is it normal? When we look at the GPS data in Svartsengi, it clearly shows that there was zero up/down movement previous to the magma influx a year ago, which supports my expectation that the ground is mostly stable and not moving up/down.
Almost all of the color variations in the rest of Iceland are due to changes in the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, not because of any ground displacements. The radar goes through clouds but the water vapor changes over space and time are a major cause of uncertainty in the InSAR measurements.
Do you think the up lift increase is due to some solidification of some magma hence additional elevation is required to store the same amount of magma for release?
Fascinating! What keeps the different domains from breaking through to one another while still underground? Is it that the rock between them is not as susceptible to the heat generated by the magma and/or less likely to fracture as the magma sloshes around down there?
I'm not convinced the volume will be much greater, which could make the eruption towards the beginning of November. After each uplift, the height never went all the way back to the previous height after the previous eruption. That's until the last one, where for the first time it went back to the same height as per after the previous eruption. Would that not suggest it could possibly erupt when it reaches roughly the previous max height? Anyway, love the videos and the science/geology information.
Thanks for the update. I'm predicting that the inflation will not exceed the previous eruption height by the same percentages as before. Rocks can't get much more plastic/elastic and we might move on to a phase of just inflating/deflation this "rock balloon"
a few days ago they had some quakes 2.2 to 2.9 in the sw of the island and i have noticed in the past few years that week or two after these there are almost matching quakes in the north end of the rift as the pressure gets released and tonight there has been another 2.2m , so im waiting on a series of quakes now in the north about the 3m level (or if you want m3.0 level) or above , thoughts ?.
The plate boundary is segmented so stress is typically released along one segment at a time. There is some research looking at how stress can be transferred to other segments but it is far from conclusive for now.
Shawn, that paper is pay walled except for the abstract, so you may run afoul of AAAS’s Terms of Service by showing text from the papers body without prior permission. Just a thought.
@@ericfielding2540 Here's what it says: "The AAAS Institutional License Agreement states that licensees and authorized users can use licensed materials and complimentary resources in a way that is consistent with fair use under copyright law. Fair use is a legal right that allows for the limited use of copyrighted material without the copyright owner's permission. It is not a blanket exemption, and each use must be evaluated on a case-by-case basis." So my reading of this says that technically Shawn must ask permission. Permission to display excerpts from the body of the paper is NOT granted carte blanche.
@@ericfielding2540 Shawn showed complete pages, text and figures, not just his highlighted sentences, which may or may not be "limited." In any event, the arbiter of what constitutes "limited use" lies with the copyright holder (the AAAS) not Shawn, you, or me. The above quoted Institutional License Agreement appears to be quite clear on that point. Permission needs to be given by AAAS.
Still waiting for someone to explain this little mystery: Before the last eruption in August, sone 24 million m^3 of magma had accomulated. However, the volume of lava that came out was way higher, 61 million m^3. How can so much more lava come out than magma was accumulated in the reservoir?? Of course, if lava is very much less dense than magma, it would make sense, but somehow I doubt that the lava is 2.5 times less dense, correct me if I'm wrong. Alternatively, I wonder whether the inflow from the depth added volume to the eruption, but then the inflow rate would have needed to be quite high, because "normally" not that much magma piles up in 2 weeks (duration of the eruption). To my mild annoyance, metoffice never explained this discrepancy...
Hello Shawn, could you recommend some literature or RUclips links to become more informed about Baja California geology? I want to learn about that as I love Baja and have no training in geology. Thanks for your very informative Geology 101 videos! 🙂
I knew it, Knew there was a very good chance before the end of the year for another eruption. Things happen in the UK before Iceland erupts believe it or not. Thats why I was asking about the Interferograms for the UK 😉
@@buffalokay Lots of different things from fires, explosions, water mains and other utilities breaking, earthquakes, severe weather especially lightning. Lakes and rivers warming up enough to kill the fish, high ocean SSTA. Been right about the last 4 eruptions just by looking at events in the UK, It's all related to them finding out volcanoes "talk" to each other and the composition of the mamga they test
As always thank you so much for explaining this scientific paper not many people have access to. And I love the thumbnail.. nice callback to the dike explanation. I would advise against sharing the pdf article: it is behind a paywall on the Science website. They could go after you for sharing this copyrighted information…
remember that you promised that the next Iceland eruption would be on christmas eve so we have nice "fireplace" videos, so please adjust YOUR pumps so they flow at a rate that will cause the pimple to pop on December 24th only and not before 🙂
Please LIKE and SUBSCRIBE. I also appreciate your continual support of these geology education videos. To do so, click on the "Thanks" button just above (right of Download button) or by going here: www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=EWUSLG3GBS5W8 Or: www.buymeacoffee.com/shawnwillsey
My lord! Again! You are trully great at sharing science to a larger audience. Your presentation of the scientific article is so good! Sharing how and why these articles are written is such a great way of lowering the threshold for people with no accademic background. Amazing work all of you who share stuff for Shawn to use in his presentations!🎉
Thank you for your updates.
Thanks Shawn !❤🎉
4:13 So, the Svartsengi station moved about 1200 millimeters or 1.2 meters to the west within a year. I think this is a very impressive speed. Obviously, there are long periods when continental plates barely move away from each other, and others when the movement speeds up significantly for a period of time.
Thanks for the interesting video 👋🏻👴🏼
Very interesting indeed. I wonder what drives the different speeds of the plate movements? Earthquakes maybe? Like creeping plates?
If you measure at a GPS station in the middle of a tectonic plate, then movement is slow and steady. However, if you measure at a plate margin (divergent - as in Iceland, or convergent or wrench), then you get stick-slip behaviour. The rocks bind together and accumulate stress, slowly and imperceptible stretching, compressing, or deforming over months and years until something breaks. Then there is a jump of movement, in seconds of real time, and an earthquake.
Very interesting paper on the multiple magma reservoirs. Sounds like it’s a lot more complex down there than just one source, one vent. There’s a whole herd of sources, reservoirs and pathways for “who wants to go topside this time? And which path do ya want-a take?”
The plumbing must be amazing.
Can they send a diver down to explore these reservoirs?
@@Tugela60Not really no.
Thanks. Great interesting update.
Yes, that was a "quick summary" -- and so packed with information. Love the charts, maps, graphs, summaries of professional papers along with your discussions. In this episode, I learned about dynamic magma domains and the chemistry of the recent eruptions on Iceland. . hahhha-
Thanks for the update Shawn. It looks to me like the 4-5 week estimate is the time when the inflation matches the last eruption. Since each eruption pushes the bar higher, my guess would be that we'll be well into December, possibly even into January, before the next one. Like you, I'm used to reading scientific papers, and also like you, it's amazing how adjacent disciplines can be impenetrable. Long gone are the days when scientists could know everything about everything. I wish the scientific community would devote more effort on making the various disciplines more accessible to those working in other fields. I'm glad that you're fulfilling this role for geology.
Thanks for all the hard work on these videos!
It is very interesting that you describe the origins of the Magma through the subterranean lenses. Thanks for your updates, Chas.
Thank you for the update Shawn. With regards to the magma plumbing system you describe it sounded like you were describing the interior of an ant mound. Interesting to say the least.
Thank you! The paper you explained is very interesting and the graphic helped me a lot to understand what possibly is going on underground. Can’t wait for the conclusions after the August eruption!
Thanks for the update. I appreciate your explanation of the data and the graphics. Always a pleasure to learn something new.
Thank you for the update, Shawn. You make the scientific paper easy to understand. I've never had any scientific background, my degrees are within the Humanities and the Arts, so this is all new to me.
Thank you Ben Shawn 😊great update 👍 😊
Gr8 to spend time listening to the updates. Thank you.
Very cool :) Many thanks for this informative update and for the follow-up regarding the article in Science, Shawn! I really like the cross section and found your explanations about the different magmas and separate magma reservoirs very helpful :) Will definitely try to read the full article if you can put it on your website.
Thanks Shawn - will definitely be reading that paper.
Thank you! I really appreciate thses updates! I imagine we'll be having a few like this before Christmas! 👍❤️
It's extraordinary that all that complexity deep underground results in relatively steady uplift under Svartsengi and fairly predictable eruptions in terms of premonitory earthquakes, timing and magma volume. I wonder is this more evidence for a layer-cake structure in the deeper crust like that revealed by the Svartsengi boreholes?
Thanks you Shawn. Just when I was wondering where this reservoirs were you present the graphic of magma depths and sources. Always enjoy you presentations.
Thank you Prof Willsey 🙏
Thank you! I missed that there is a website! Great and appreciate your update.
Thanks Shawn, especially for highlighting the paper on multiple magma sources. Fascinating.
thanks so much for this follow up, I was too busy keep an eye on the great job you and your team always do, but I am feeling that I didnot lose the connection to the "hot stuff" - have a nice weekend, time will be becoming rough and tough... greetings, Crissy
Thanks for the up date on our old friend.
Amazing geology in Iceland, so addictive always loads to learn
Very cool information in that paper! Thanks for sharing it with us.
Again, a very interesting and informative update. Thank you. Cheers
Thanks again, shawn. While I follow and watch what is happening there, I enjoy your explinations, graphs and round ups for fuller clarity you provide. One gripe though, what happened to your motion sensor light? Bring it back, lol. thanks again, and to those who contribute to your content, for giving your time for us.
Ha! Fixed and. I now have an old school on/off switch. The Willsey wave: RIP
Thank you for the update especially the " Mini Journal Club "presentation PJ Down Under ie Oz
I learned something from the paper you talked about....separate lenses instead of large chambers...kind of makes more sense....
Thanks Prof 👍
Thank you for this update. I hope the weather will allow for good drone coverage during the eruption.
Thank you always enjoy your updates they are very informative
Thank you so much, very interesting.
Yes, please add the paper to the website. Thanks!
Amanda Jo will do so soon. She has stomach bug currently.
Sorry to hear she’s ill. She does great work.
Loving your updates and insights, thank you. Could you give us some insights into the Katla volcano please. It's way overdue and has been quietly rattling away. Thank you again.
thank you very Shawn with the best wishes from Vogar / Iceland
Thanks!
Many thanks for your kind donation.
Thanks for this ! I guess we wait and see 👀✨✨
We tend to think of ground being solid and unchanging in Australia but it's obviously more dynamic in iceland thanks for the update wendy albany western Australia
Thanks Shawn, All interesting researchbut I'd like to also see why the lava doesn't get straight up to Blue Lagoon due to either dense rock, water and cracks guiding magma flow to Sundnukur currently.
Hi Shawn, can you please explain a bit the rainbow satellite images (not featured in this update but you sometimes show them) in some of your next videos? I am so confused about them. I understand the bulls eye where the magma storage is, that's very expected. What I don't understand is the rest of the map. The whole map is colourful, which I interpret as movement literally everywhere in whole Iceland. Is it the case? Is it normal? When we look at the GPS data in Svartsengi, it clearly shows that there was zero up/down movement previous to the magma influx a year ago, which supports my expectation that the ground is mostly stable and not moving up/down.
Almost all of the color variations in the rest of Iceland are due to changes in the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, not because of any ground displacements. The radar goes through clouds but the water vapor changes over space and time are a major cause of uncertainty in the InSAR measurements.
Do you think the up lift increase is due to some solidification of some magma hence additional elevation is required to store the same amount of magma for release?
Thanks.
Thank you.
How large of a hydrothermal explosion the blue lagoon would produce?
Aloha from Makaha....based on GPS data...we got a ways to go before the next eruption...maybe in December?
Thank you Shawn👍👍👍. Di….Cumbria.
Fascinating! What keeps the different domains from breaking through to one another while still underground? Is it that the rock between them is not as susceptible to the heat generated by the magma and/or less likely to fracture as the magma sloshes around down there?
Yes, I believe the magma bodies (domains) have exploited weaker and more fractured rock and they are separated by more robust (or denser) rock.
I'm not convinced the volume will be much greater, which could make the eruption towards the beginning of November. After each uplift, the height never went all the way back to the previous height after the previous eruption. That's until the last one, where for the first time it went back to the same height as per after the previous eruption. Would that not suggest it could possibly erupt when it reaches roughly the previous max height? Anyway, love the videos and the science/geology information.
Thanks for the update. I'm predicting that the inflation will not exceed the previous eruption height by the same percentages as before. Rocks can't get much more plastic/elastic and we might move on to a phase of just inflating/deflation this "rock balloon"
a few days ago they had some quakes 2.2 to 2.9 in the sw of the island and i have noticed in the past few years that week or two after these there are almost matching quakes in the north end of the rift as the pressure gets released and tonight there has been another 2.2m , so im waiting on a series of quakes now in the north about the 3m level (or if you want m3.0 level) or above , thoughts ?.
The plate boundary is segmented so stress is typically released along one segment at a time. There is some research looking at how stress can be transferred to other segments but it is far from conclusive for now.
Shawn, that paper is pay walled except for the abstract, so you may run afoul of AAAS’s Terms of Service by showing text from the papers body without prior permission. Just a thought.
I would consider the use that Shawn does as “fair use” under the copyright law in the USA.
@@ericfielding2540 Here's what it says: "The AAAS Institutional License Agreement states that licensees and authorized users can use licensed materials and complimentary resources in a way that is consistent with fair use under copyright law. Fair use is a legal right that allows for the limited use of copyrighted material without the copyright owner's permission. It is not a blanket exemption, and each use must be evaluated on a case-by-case basis."
So my reading of this says that technically Shawn must ask permission. Permission to display excerpts from the body of the paper is NOT granted carte blanche.
@@terrywhite6269 Shawn showed a few sentences and one figure from the paper. That is what I would consider “limited use”.
@@ericfielding2540 Shawn showed complete pages, text and figures, not just his highlighted sentences, which may or may not be "limited." In any event, the arbiter of what constitutes "limited use" lies with the copyright holder (the AAAS) not Shawn, you, or me. The above quoted Institutional License Agreement appears to be quite clear on that point. Permission needs to be given by AAAS.
Looks like the snow has melted!
Talking about the GPS data: I noticed a slight drop around October 10th, but then the line resumed its trend upwards. Any info why this did happen?
The structure of the ancient igneous rock below the Blue Lagoon continue to be the missing link.
Still waiting for someone to explain this little mystery:
Before the last eruption in August, sone 24 million m^3 of magma had accomulated.
However, the volume of lava that came out was way higher, 61 million m^3.
How can so much more lava come out than magma was accumulated in the reservoir??
Of course, if lava is very much less dense than magma, it would make sense, but somehow I doubt that the lava is 2.5 times less dense, correct me if I'm wrong. Alternatively, I wonder whether the inflow from the depth added volume to the eruption, but then the inflow rate would have needed to be quite high, because "normally" not that much magma piles up in 2 weeks (duration of the eruption).
To my mild annoyance, metoffice never explained this discrepancy...
Thank you…and Bruce Garner. (Couldn’t remember his last name; hope the spelling is correct🤞)!
Thanks for the update. QUESTION: What is a "Depleted Magma Body?" (from the illustration)
Magma that has undergone some partial melting such that some of its original elements have been partially or wholly used up making crystals.
@@shawnwillsey Thank you!
Hello Shawn, could you recommend some literature or RUclips links to become more informed about Baja California geology? I want to learn about that as I love Baja and have no training in geology. Thanks for your very informative Geology 101 videos! 🙂
Ha! I did my Masters research there over 20 years ago near Loreto. I'll see what I can find.
@@shawnwillsey Thanks, I appreciate your response! 🙂
I knew it, Knew there was a very good chance before the end of the year for another eruption. Things happen in the UK before Iceland erupts believe it or not. Thats why I was asking about the Interferograms for the UK 😉
What’s happening in the UK?
@@buffalokay Lots of different things from fires, explosions, water mains and other utilities breaking, earthquakes, severe weather especially lightning. Lakes and rivers warming up enough to kill the fish, high ocean SSTA. Been right about the last 4 eruptions just by looking at events in the UK, It's all related to them finding out volcanoes "talk" to each other and the composition of the mamga they test
Hello everyone
Was the Feb eruption the southern one near the town?
That was the January eruption.
As always thank you so much for explaining this scientific paper not many people have access to. And I love the thumbnail.. nice callback to the dike explanation.
I would advise against sharing the pdf article: it is behind a paywall on the Science website. They could go after you for sharing this copyrighted information…
❤ Rocks
remember that you promised that the next Iceland eruption would be on christmas eve so we have nice "fireplace" videos, so please adjust YOUR pumps so they flow at a rate that will cause the pimple to pop on December 24th only and not before 🙂
Am I blocked?
No?
Predicting next eruption on or about Dec 18th, +/- 3 days. What's your guess?.
I think it’ll erupt in mid- to late November.