The Cost Of Waiting and Housing Affordability With Barry Habib
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- Опубликовано: 26 ноя 2023
- Housing Affordability Is Sitting Near 39 Year Lows While Home Sales Hit a 13 Year low. Meanwhile, the housing market is continuing to remain strong with house prices continuing to rise but the Future Of The 2024 Housing Market Will Largely Depend On What Happens To Mortgage Rates and Housing Affordability. Will The Housing Market Crash in 2024? In this episode, I took an excerp from a longer podcast we did with Barry Habib, CEO of MBS Highway to discuss the future of housing affordability.
⏩ The 2024 Housing Market With Barry Habib - • The 2024 Housing Marke...
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⏩ The 2024 Housing Market With Barry Habib - ruclips.net/video/94jd2PBA2Pg/видео.html
✅ - Get a Personal Referral to a Mortgage Expert or a Professional Realtor - www.jebsmith.net/referral
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People will have to accept reality that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts, I look towards the stock market to fuel my FIRE goal at this point.
after studying the trajectory of great assets like real estate, dividend paying stocks and gold, my conclusion is to buy and invest in what you can afford today! working with a financial planner can certainly help
@@maria_casey real estate prices exploded, interest rates exploded, but my wage the same, i'm screwed.. who is the professional guiding you if you dont mind me asking please?
With houses sitting longer and there being less competition this is actually a great time to buy. Because in a year or two when rates drop the crazy buying frenzy will be back. There will be no crash and you need to just buy when it’s the right time for you and you can afford it.
💯💯💯
Im waiting until next year when rates drop and buffer up my finances. There will be no competition for me since I will be buying new construction rates should drop specially a month or two before election
I'm sorry but 7% right now is a 3k plus mortgage. That is just not affordable. That's basically my monthly paycheck 😢
Agents gonna be sad when they realize rates only drop when the economy is tanking and people losing their jobs
Thats the Barbera from shark tank effect right there.
My wife and I close on January 14th. I can't wait. I am grateful we can afford to buy now. All the people waiting are going to be in a big war with everyone else who's waiting which will keep home prices up.
Congrats!!!!!
Loved this presentation. I found it to be well thought out and well explained. One thing I noticed is the math about price increases, at about 5:00, was glossed over and I wanted to be sure I agreed with how he arrived at the numbers that were derived from the data on the screen.
For example, for years 1943-1947 highlighted in a red box, he stated it was a 118% increase in prices. Starting with 1.0 (100%), and multiplying 1.11 (11% increase), 1.17, 1.12, 1.24, and 1.21 = 2.18 meaning we ended at 218% of the original price, which indeed is a 118% increase.
I was always skeptical that real estate agents think anytime is a good time to buy -- but from this perspective, if you're going to hold, then it sure does look like anytime is a good time.
@Jeb I really enjoyed this video especially because someone covered NY-NJ area in your channel. The competition is still so fierce in NJ.
this is extremely helpful
Love this 👌
Thank you.
If we’re under contract on new build get our house in January we have a locked interest rate but I feel we could’ve got it lower can we still negotiate or it’s too late? Will we have to pull out to negotiate a new deal? Please help
Great presentation. Regained respect for him after his bad call about rates last year.
Its gonna be another bad call, he is selling houses, of course he is gonna say buy now even though it doesn’t make sense lol
It was actually earlier this year calling for a change around May that never happened which he discussed.
Thanks
Waiting= loss of opportunity. People that wish and wait never achieve anything. Just do the math find a home that fits your budget. Home owners net worth is 40% higher than renters. Homes go up and down that’s just the nature of the game. As a investor one way or another if you want to build wealth you need to invest in real estate one way or another
Well said!
I think there was a gem of a bit of information in there quickly gone over. The whole video is insightful but when he mentions if your payment goes up 400 you only need income to go up 400 to offset that cost, it sounds wrong but if we look at what is actually propping up inflation it makes sense. Your income only needs to rise with inflation for affordability to stay relatively good if everything is rising. If only your cost to own a home is rising, it is still possible that there are many out there just 1 raise away from being able to afford to enter the market as their other costs are stable.
Yes that stuck out to me, too. Since the monthly mortgage payment is smaller than the monthly income, a proportionately large jump in the mortgage is relatively less drastic in comparison to the income. Shows why people who stretched for their homes end up comfortable if they can survive until enough income increase.
💯
Tired of trying to explain to lifelong renters why waiting for a crash to buy is foolish. Some people exist just to pay someone else's mortgage.
Unfortunately, everyone has their biases and some people just believe things are always going to get better. In some cases they will while another's. It may not be quite the same. Good on you for trying
Thats why you rent from someone who doesnt have a mortgage, rent is much cheaper. Maybe they think paying 7.5% interest on mortgage that in other words will result in paying 1.5 times the loan amount in interest over 30 years, isnt much of a gain at all. Never mind carrying costs and property taxes.
It might as well be our mortgages 🤷🏽♂️
I bought a single-family and rent out a basement apartment to tenants who are “waiting.”
Oh look, someone using FOMO to fuel the largest asset class in America. I’m shocked!
People are acting as if buying a house is a great investment maybe they should learn about the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when deciding to buy a house as a primary residential home and if you still think is a great choice then go for it.
Wow that makes a lot of sense 😢
Agreed.
Buying a home isn’t for everyone. Yet, everyone feels they deserve one for free.
Everyone deserves to have a roof over their head but with high prices and high rates, it's going to take a change in mindset for many out there especially those that feel entitled about homeownership.
@@JebSmith More like *Proud* homeowner. I’ll just shoot straight. Homeownership is in a sense a measure of hard work and success. However, everyone wants something for nothing or just wants to do the bare minimum, you can see that by the number of folks calling for a housing crash. Sure you have exceptions, but in general folks have to do a lot especially nowadays just to get in, no sugarcoating.
Yes, you will have 5% year over year gain. Only if you hold on to your property for at lease fifteen years. The question is can you afford to hold that long ? Specially at interest rate of 7% (4k monthly payment )
I don't believe prices will necessarily continue at 5% but they aren't going down in a meaningful way. Your more likely to see prices move sideways for a while as wages grow, etc.......On the flip side, rents will likely continue to go up as they have historically. Owning isn't for everyone and it's okay if you decide not to buy but you better be putting money in something to grow your net worth long term if it's not housing.
I wonder who can afford to buy?
It's a mix of first time home buyers, move up buyers and some investors.
It’s all relative. Prices here have fallen 15-20% from where they were 6-8 months ago. Will they fall more? Who knows. But had I bought earlier this year versus now it would have been at a much higher cost.
Where? Prices haven't falled 20% anywhere in the US from 6-8 months ago unless they were priced wrong to start. Come on
@@JebSmithI’m not saying they were priced correctly to begin with as I think prices in this area were heavily inflated versus what they should realistically be…but a lot of prebuilt quick move in new construction homes that haven’t been selling in new communities have dropped 55-90k on 650-500k original asking prices. Suburbs east of Dallas.
And again my point is it’s relative to location. Some areas are rising and some falling. You can argue percentages as I’m sure they vary all over but location is still an important factor.
And yeah going back and looking at my sheets where I’ve been tracking several builders in new communities in this area it’s probably closer to 10% over the last 8 months. 15-20% when you expand it out to about 16 months. I’m sure builders were hoping people were gonna pay those prices but not in this area lol.
@@jamesosteen09You brought up a specific neighborhood or builder which is helpful. Now here is where the perspective comes in.
Home prices in DFW are not down 10%. You found a builder who is offering 'discounts' or the appearance of them to sell houses. Consider the actual selling prices compared to a few years ago. There is no crash in prices. Rather, prices are significantly higher than a few years ago.
You mentioned prices from 16 months ago. Back then, interest rates were significantly lower than they are now. It's possible if there were a higher price 16 months ago, with the lower interest rates back then, that payment would still be less expensive than today's prices and rates.
I sure didn't wait January would be my year anniversary 🎉
Nice!!!!! Congrats
Congratulations to you also Jeb.
What's the average credit score of approved buyers?
I'm not sure what it is at the moment, I'll check in the latest mortgage report but I would think it's somewhere in the 720 range
@JebSmith That would be an interesting video comparing credit requirements in 2008 vs today
All jokes aside, how do you come up with the growth in prices year over year. Nothing has been consistent in this post pandemic economy. Ive seen homes listed at 500k just to be slashed down to 300k in a matter of months. It seems like values are made up and inflated, adding a 4% projected yearly growth is as something to be expected seems foolish.
That projection of 4.51% growth per year is based on averaging everything since 1960 (63-year average on his slide- not sure why 1960 was the cut-off). If you hold for an adequate time period and life in America doesn't drastically change forever, then you could expect around that historical growth over time. I think the 5 year projected value is not "to be expected" but it's just a basis for comparing buying now vs buying later.
Where have you seen a house drop from 500K to 300K that was priced correctly from the start? Please send me the addresses as I want to look them up, send them to my email at youtube@jebsmith.net. The historical appreciation for homes in the US is 4.7% over the last 65 years. Due to the lack of supply, we are likely to see home prices continue to move sideways to up until supply exceeds demand in a meaningful way.
@JebSmith that's what I'm saying. The houses are not priced correctly. It's a toss, and see what sicks. This specific example was in the greater Milwaukee WI area, saw it back in September with a friend over lunch who rely liked this house, but after we looked at it on zillow it seemd to get massive price cuts each week, listed in june of this year. What I'm saying is, with the crazy surge in prices since the pandemic, what is the real value of these homes?
@@toulee3551The real value is about 40% lower than they currently are, but since RE is the largest asset class in America there are millions of people who will continue to pump it up until the bitter end
This is exactly the point…due to unprecedented price increases due to an economic disaster we created because of our response to the pandemic so much of housing and other items are priced incorrectly. It’s easy to say those decreases aren’t happening if things were priced correctly to begin with but there’s a lot out there that hasn’t been priced correctly for awhile so I think correction is needed and happening.
Case-Shiller
We should all take advise from the following people;
1. The person who makes commission off the sale of the biggest purchase of your life
2. The person that sells shit to the person that makes commission off the biggest purchase of your life
Next I’ll ask Ford if I should buy a truck! They have my best interest in mind
History has the answers, you just have to pay attention. Homeowners have a 40x greater net worth than those of renters. The experiment has been done. Don't believe me, look at the facts.
@@JebSmithHow can you say history has the answers when the past 4 years have been nothing but unprecedented territory? We’ve never had a pandemic that shut down the entire economy and rampant inflation to assets to avoid financial collapse. But somehow salesmen became economists and know exactly what the future holds? Give me a break
@@PharticusMcbuttnobody knows what the future holds, but realistically the FED will drop rates early next year. Over $15T in U.S. government debt is set to mature in 2024, since the government has to pay back current debt by taking out new debt. They know taking out new debt to pay old debt at current rates is unfeasible…especially with their current spending. But of course the FED can’t say this because markets would run rampant.
@@JebSmithalso when the FED pauses again at their next meeting, which is practically guaranteed…mortgage rates will drop further because U.S. treasuries will fall. Realistically rates can bottom to about 6.5% if the FED keeps their current funds rate unchanged & treasuries drop based on bets that rate hikes are done.
Barry Habib also predicted last year that rates would drop a lot this year and that didn't happen.
1000/4000=25% 1400/4400 = 32%
Too poor to buy now, thanks for comming to my Ted talk
Change your philosophy, change your life.
@JebSmith my guy I am doing that, student loans wiped out all of my savings. Had to start form scratch again. I make ok money but will need to save for a down payments and agian. Not everyone can jump in right now with inflated prices + intest that will easily 2-3× my current rent. Who knows what the future will hold, but I can't afford my local area right now.
Wow..This Guy couldn't be more wrong..What a waste of my 2 Minutes
Part of the problem is that you watched 2 mins versus the whole video and understanding the data.
@JebSmith I watched the whole thing..I like the channel but I think this guy is a little off Jeb...I appreciate the comment and I will continue tuning in! 😉
Oh hey "Barry-mortgage rates will be sub 5% in 2023-Habib" Regardless of what you say his history may be, he's been an absolute joke for the last year.
Yes, he has been wrong in 2023.....That said, he addresses that in the video.
So many sheep just repeating the data explained on this channel..
So many crashers wishing for something to change