😢Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.
This is a great assessment of a collapse. This is totallly what happened in the course of my life. Too many people now have useless education and no skills. I wiuld still many small businesses (including farmers, fisherman, ect) locally ran for trades and production of products is the most important way to create a flourishing moddle class as the majority of the population. This however does require common culture and values. Without that, no one can trust each other and social interactions become really hostile. Many of us were forced into college when we really did not want to go. What we wanted were trades but that was destroyed by elites who made the decisins to strip more profits out of companies for personal gain and moved nearly all the manufacturing overseas. This was a key destabilizer for most of the lower middle class who made up a sizeable population of the broader middle class. Ps credentialism is extortion. It basically iperates as a bribe of tens of thousands of dollars to get your foot in the door.
"War and Peace and War" is for me the best summary of all Turchin's work that is very accessible for the general audience. It also addresses the 'elite over production' demographic issue in great detail without being too academic.
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.😮
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.😮
Great interview. I've seen others with Turchin, and each host asks such interesting questions. This interview was no exception. I have his latest book and am looking forward to starting it tonight!
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.🎉😮
Enjoyed the interview. I appreciate those with an insightful macro view and who can connect the dots in constructive, instructive, useful ways. I will probably put Dr. Turchin's book on my 2024 reading pile.
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.
The elite he is talking about don't produce, they extract from working people. GDP statistics show a rising proportion of GDP as being rentier income for banks and bondholders, absentee landlords and monopolists. Their interest charges, penalty fees on debtors, and real estate and monopoly rents, are reported as reflecting a product in the form of “financial services” or the services of landlordship or kindred rent extraction. These payments leave less disposable income for wage earners and businesses to spend on production and consumption in the “real” economy. That is the phenomenon of debt deflation and rent deflation, discussed in Chapters 4 and 5. Such payments are thus antithetical to adding to real product. They are transfer payments from income earners to rentiers. Michael Hudson. The Destiny of Civilization
Hmmm would this favor increasing debt? The rents appear to produce a return, hence demand for borrowing to increase rents. Non-landlords are seeing rent increases outpace more than revenue increases (ex subsidies, special tax and contract deals, etc), hence debt to fund consumption. Enter the "financial service" of interest rate volatility! You don't mine it it transport it; you psyop the public into providing liquidity at different price levels so the large players can enter and exit the debt market, freeing up capital to be re deployed on the next -ponzi- "development zone" But anyway. Point is that the time value of money can just be repriced to re-value the last (and next?) 10, 20, 40 years of consumption and investment. Very helpful depending who you ask. So why not push the debt musical chairs game to its limits? Let things deteriorate, let the greed and desperation drive up debt, and be in the correct place on the ship when it finally breaks.
@@OurNewestMember Over 40% of income has nothing to do with producing anything or hours worked, it is an extraction from the real economy. This is the Libertarian/Austrian/Chicago School neoliberal “free market”, the opposite of the meaning Adam Smith and the classical economists intended for the term, which is to mean free FROM economic rent not free FOR economic rent. “It is suggested that the tipping point for being a rentier economy is when 40 per cent of income comes from rent. Even if just interest and dividends are counted as rent, the USA is already at that point.” Standing, Guy. The Corruption of Capitalism (p. 114). 2016
@@spiritofgoldfish that's a massive problem, but how can you ignore billions in subsidies and preferential contracts to the most influential economic actors? In pharma, agriculture, energy, "health care", "defense", etc. ...Or ignore the increasing proportion of GDP spent by govt and not general actors? Where tf is this "free market" you're taking about? This is the concentrated influence over the use of force to enforce an increasingly complex set of tax and procurement and "accountability" rules that increasingly benefit an increasingly concentrated group of people. Then it's ideologically supported by the controlling group funding propaganda campaigns to lie the public into not getting in the way of further concentrating power. I cannot think of a single "free market" that exists in the western world today. Information is manipulated on social media (algorithms), in financial markets, in the "news", from the govt (eg, secrecy laws; it's illegal to lie to Congress, a court, and possibly law enforcement, but no immediate penalty for pubic officials lying to the public), the "subsidies" already mentioned (wealth redistribution by force), and so on. Most anything that people buy is under the conditions of rising asset and consumer prices and lopsided rules, so even if a regular person wants to become an extractive landlord, they won't be able to get money at the same price (to say nothing of different access to promotional materials and cost-saving measures, but you could argue those differences are more due to "pure" market forces). Basically, it would be no wonder that the economy is at a disastrous 40% rent-seeking/extractive level, but that's exactly what you would expect when a small group of people continually use all available tools to bend the rules in their own favor, not free markets.
@@spiritofgoldfish I think "neoliberal free market" is just part of the long tradition of some people lying to take advantage of others (at scale). Just like some do with wars, pubic policy on food, energy, govt contracts, housing, etc. If it wasn't neoliberal or neoconservative, it would be some other flavor of saying one thing, doing another, and walking out the door with the goods, whether or not it already has a name
@@OurNewestMember Mainstream ideology has twisted the meaning of "free market" into the opposite of what the classical economists like Adam Smith intended. The classical economists defined a free market as free FROM economic rents (unearned income), extracted by feudal landlords. The classical role of government is to keep natural monopolies in the public domain and tax away economic rents to use it to lower the cost of production. This is done through subsidies for such things as public infrastructure, education, and health care, not raising the cost of living and therefore the cost of labor, as with neoliberal monopolistic privatization. Mainstream Austrian and Libertarian Chicago School neoliberals have no role for the government in the economy, leaving the market free FOR economic rents, extracted by monopolies and the banks (FIRE, finance, insurance, and real estate). Because the economy does not stay out of government, the result is rule by the rentier oligarchy, otherwise called feudalism. These two approaches, industrial capitalism and financial capitalism, are what the new cold war is all about, and it is the story of financial capitalism sucking ever more life out of once vibrant US industrial capitalism. “It is suggested that the tipping point for being a rentier economy is when 40 per cent of income comes from rent. Even if just interest and dividends are counted as rent, the USA is already at that point.” Standing, Guy. The Corruption of Capitalism (p. 114). 2016
This is the second of your podcasts that I have watched; they both included very important individuals. Your professionalism, treatment of the guests, and adeptness in questioning and commenting are very commendable. Great job!!!
I'm always cautious of those who propose a more mechanistic view of complex systems. That said, they certainly are good at identifying important variables.
Until we see the raw data, he supposedly built his ideas on, we cannot take his propositions, models, conjectures too seriously. Plus: "elite overproduction" conceptually rhymes with "I'm a secret Marxist"; Marxists being obsessed with overproduction.
@@lukegardner6917 Or elites being over production? That is: exporting production elsewhere! Elites don't produce anything so it cannot be "over production by elites". Turchin's saying: there are too many elites. The system made too many.
sure, these can always be a trojan horse meant to trap you in a fruitless thought pattern or red herring, but that why you read first hand accounts and multiple theories to formulate your own ideas
The French aristocracy would not budge though Louis 16th wanted reforms. It's always entrenched interests that cause revolution eventually, in African colonial wars too. Shortage of cheap energy since 1980, or cheap borrowing now ending, means less wealth creation to spread around. There is growing anger everywhere in the West so I don't see a new deal working.
Actually its even worse at this point with so much inflation people in ordinary jobs struggle to get food especially singles which are now the majority. Its not even elite aspiration at this point it comes closer to a "let them eat cake" moment.
Compensation flattened largely because of globalism. Companies went to China and other countries for cheap labor. This devalued American workers and created huge wealth disparity, destroying the middle class in America.
Taxes and social spending plus jubilees to redistribute wealth will remove the “elite bump”. I am all for that. Add nationalizing banks and the energy sector and we would be all set. One can only hope.
In the wake of the GFC Obama certainly did have the opportunity to implement radical reforms that might have begun to reverse the wealth pump Turchin describes. In retrospect his inability to meaningfully move the needle towards more equitable reforms reflects more a lack of desire and will to do so than structural impediments hampering political action.
Obama was a classic phoney. Pretty speeches but a neocon/neoliberal at his core. A huge disappointment. AOC is the same. He was also ineffective as a Politician in terms of getting things done. He genuinely wanted to do Healthcare but stupidly tried to build consensus with the Republican Party. That was politically naïve. He had a majority in the Senate and the House. That was the time to strike. That's what LBJ would've done.
His progressive rhetoric was just a grift, as are the words coming out of most progressives. They just want to take your money and scream in your face to shut up.
Obama seemed to come out of nowhere to win the Presidency. McCain started out being the front runner, but soon began to falter, probably because of his at the time undisclosed brain tumor that ultimately took his life. The financial elites had been counting on him to give them even more bailout money, but he was becoming unpredictable and unreliable. The Elites chose Obama as their perfect candidate, he was a shining example of the American Dream who aspired to become one of them. Wall Street financed and supported him as much as possible, because he was willing to be THEIR man in the White House. Someone who had the intelligence and personal charm to articulate THEIR message, while also articulating the campaign message of "Hope and Change" to the beleaguered American Public. There was never ANY intention by Obama and his backers to deliver on this message...it was all just false advertising. He spent his entire 2 terms giving great speeches full of excuses for why he couldn't deliver, without ever admitting the unspeakable and real reasons why not.
He said 15% of these "wealth pump" society's resolve in a positive way. I'm curious how that was calculated. Was FDR's New deal part of that 15%? Would the elites of the time have allowed it if it wasn't for the fact that their equals overseas were being slaughtered in various revolutions? What percentage of wealth pumps have been stopped both without violence and without a global environment of violence? Any chance we can duplicate that?
Not the answer you want but the "wealth pump" narrative is nonsense. You are going to get conflict, the resolution of which might lead to instability/significant change, whenever there are two groups with power that disagree. There are many ways to acquire power - the need to collapse that to a "wealth pump" is not an objective search for truth by Turchin but an ideological need to frame the narrative within socialism - with the solution being wealth enforced equity so you don't produce any elites. The West is unstable now because all our key institutions are corrupted. The institutions don't raise people to the top their hierarchies based on competency. Unsurprisingly the general population won't acquiesce to authority, when they don't believe the authority is competent or that people reach those positions did so based on merit - the authority is no longer legitimate. It's got nothing to do with "an over-production of elites" or wealth pumps - we are living in a corrupt and decadent society. Partly the victim of it's own success, everyone believes the system will just carry on and the only need is to try and extract as much as possible from it for yourself - there is absolutely no one who is trying to protect and nourish the system any more. Highly likely we are living through the end time of Western civilisation. Look at how corrupt the great social justice movements are these days - feminism now demands you believe men are toxic, civil rights movement that everything is racist when it's clearly and Western countries are the most free and equal, and the sexual revolution culminated in raising trans rights above all other people's rights and forcing inappropriate medical solutions on children. None of those movements are searching for equal treatment any more, they are all corrupted power movements. Their mantras are more often illogical, inconsistent and deeply hypocritical - but people are willing to turn a blind eye to allow continued acceptance of their ideologies, continued participation "in the group", as it's less painful than challenging themselves and those around them and performing independent critical analysis in a search for real truth. People believe it's acceptable to reach their SJW goals through tyrannical application of power to cancel and eradicate anyone that doesn't agree with them. Censorship and oppression of "enemies" is rife, core concepts such as innocent until proven guilty tossed aside, because people want to be able to destroy others with mere rumour and speculation. Without realising it, everything is being put in place that will facilitate complete totalitarianism. On top of that the average person is unwilling to take responsibility for their lives and demanding the state solve all their problems for them, act as their parents... unwittingly concentrating more and more power in the hands of the state... in a political system that is already utterly corrupted. It's not hard to see the end of freedom and democracy and a new age of tyranny. 2/3rds of the world doesn't live in a free or democratic society - it's precious, delicate and precious if you have it. But people are throwing it away just to "win" arguments and debate and impose their desired solutions on society. It's easy to unite people with little to nothing around a common set of goals around improving society. But how do you unite people who have it all and now take everything they have for granted, as if it's their right and it will continue in perpetuity, regardless of the standards of our collective behaviour, because they fundamentally believe the system is impervious and could never collapse. Decadence. Look at the fall of the Roman empire for the most obvious equivalence in history. If you got to the end - well done. Long post. Complex subject But none of this is to do with "over production of elites" or "wealth pumps".
I think he stated the New Deal was part of the 15%. The detail he didn't get into much though was that there were huge communist and labour movements in the US at the time who were threatening to bring capatalism to an end. They were powerful enough to make good their threat and FDR was smart enough to recognise this - hence the New Deal. He actually went to the elites of the US and told them they would have to give up some of their wealth if they wanted to survive and enough of them did what FDR asked for it to work. If there was a less astute leader at the time we might have ended up with a communist USA and a very different world - somebody should write an alternative history 🙂
Thank you for an excellent interview, this is a fascinating and very convincing analysis. I would love to see this theory applied to South Africa in the present day and in the 1980s-1990s. Nelson Mandela was another lawyer who became a leader.
"Help me kind of unpack, this is a really long question, Help me to unpack what i´m trying to struggle in here" This is one of the most intelectually honest things that i have ever saw in life. YOur question was so brilliant that i lost the sense of time while you are making it, like i was journeying completely, in the wisdom of the details. Your question was a genius work of art.
The wealth pump is global and outside the governance of any one nation control. Global capital and the plutocrats that own it has sort of turned nations into just markets. Not to mention the devolution of government and polarization of politics complicates any course correction.
Well done you. Best interview I've heardqith Peter T. If you'd like to come and teach my UGs in London how to ask insightful questions ..... thank you.
I haven’t heard yet the sending of our manufacturing jobs overseas and the lack of. emphasis on the value of vocational jobs as a career. Two many unneeded business degrees. You also haven’t mention the inability to save caused partly by easy access to credit cards plus the lack of ability to save money due the need for instant gratification .
"In any system of energy, Control is what consumes energy the most. No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores. No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it. This universal truth applies to all systems. Energy, like time, flows from past to future" (2017).
In their defense, most boomers are completely oblivious to the issues, as many of them were able to ride the wave created by the wealth pump. Most of the "wealth pump" policies went into place when they were very young adults with no political power. 1965 immigration act(labor devalued and americans pushed out of affordable communities by demographic change), 1971 ending of the gold standard (wages debased by inflation), and the beginning of neoliberal economic policy in 1981 (driving asset prices perpetually upwards) all happened before most boomers hit 30. Admission of China into the WTO is the only major wealth pump factor that boomers, as a generation, had a say in. Thats only 1 of 4.
Because they believed the script handed to them about being a good citizen…lesson? Always question the script you’re handed…and try to peek ahead to the end of the play and analyze what the “ finale” will bring! If it’s headed to wealth gap…throw it in the trash.
38:59 - I view the center as the lowest point on the letter ‘V’. The Left & The Right are the apex points of the “V”. As you move away from the extreme ends, you descend and fade towards the center.
One point he is missing is elites who are not connected to the downside of their actions, media , lawyers , senior managers of shareholder owned companies and senior public servants have more power than responsibility. Society needs wealthy successful business owners who live or die on their results.
Although I’m center left, though turchin makes me rethink that label, interesting that he calls the corn laws a big part of the Uk avoiding revolution, as that is one of the free market’s greatest hits. Turchin has a nuanced view of free market clearly
Too many roosters in the hen yard upsetting the farm. Time to thin out the roosters? Too much money concentrated in the hands of too few, causes too much mischief.
From the book he main considers how things affect the twin forces of instability, elite overproduction and popular immiseration. Immigration drives down the cost of labor increasing immiseration and is mentioned in a book as a historical strategy that American Elites used to construct a wealth pump. He doesn't mention globalization in the book but you can probably deduce his thinking. If globalization exports middle class jobs and increases profits for the elite, this causes instability. If the lower cost of goods from cheaply made imports increase the disposable income of the populace, then immiseration is reduced. I'll leave you to decided which effect is greater.
@elsade2000 kind of what I figured, I just wondered if he ever explicitly talks about either. I forgot I put one of his books on my list years ago and never got to it. I had heard his name and "elite overproduction" around but I think this is the first talk I've heard with him.
A great interviewer first of all. The theory is seductive and certainly has very strong points. However, the narrative it creates about the New Deal would deserve some pushback. For instance, some economists argue that New Deal policies led to stagnation and prolongation of the depression and that only the war has the serendipitous effect of getting out of the mess. And that seems to be supported by data, even if the political narrative is seductive.
Ok 50% of usa GDP was in Banks before the depression started. THe banks fell and took the econemy with it. 5% unem[;yment to 20% unemployment at the hight. If the new deal reduced the anger and class hate from mass unemplotment it worked. They would have been the foot solders of a revolution. The stagnation could well be true but it solved a political problem the ecomamists dont think about. Did working class wages improve? Wikipiedea shows the great depression had ended by 1939 two years before the WW2 started.
29:00 nobody ever paid that much in taxes. There were so many deductions and loopholes that it made it impossible to tax anyone that had a halfway decent CPA that much. Effective tax rates for that entire era were no more than 2-3% higher than they have been at any point in the 20-21 centuries
But there are more loopholes now and lower rates! Taxes were definitely higher on the wealthy decades ago and it helped to maintain better social cohesion.
One thing I feel people never discuss is WHAT LABOR PRODUCTIVITY really is. If you fall on the side that the majority of labor productivity gains were from capital inflows into infrastructure and technology, rather than the workers actually becoming more productive by their own accord, then yes, it would make sense for wages to stagnate.
What do you define labor productivity as? Also wages were rising along with investments until the 70s it didn’t stop until offshoring which wouldn’t have been a problem if we took that capital and invested in R&D and infrastructure
Labor productivity is one of the main economics metrics and published by the BLS: www.bls.gov/k12/productivity-101/content/how-is-productivity-measured/calculating-productivity.htm
@@camdencapps6894I truly believe that moving from a gold standard to fiat based money moved all of the leverage from the labor to those with capital. Through interest and debt, those with assets were able to keep ahead of inflation. It also moved the investments from productive assets like manufacturing facilities to scarce stores of value like real estate.
The problem is there is no net productivity meritocracy. If a corporation outcompetes a smaller producer, and does so through technical change, it is an open question as to whether this is in fact good, even for production, in the long term. It also confuses management, ownership, labor, and exogenous relationships which are complicated.
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.
This talk of the elites reminds me of the verse in the Quran And when God intends to destroy a city, He command its affluent but they defiantly disobey; so the word comes into effect upon it, and We destroy it completely. [17:16]
I consider this as a serious attempt at understanding 'historical phenomena'. That said, I am shocked that not enough reference is made to flora, fauna, climate, geological and 'cosmic' forces. A human-centered analysis cannot suffice to understand and guide our fragile, heterotroph species (that should be acknowledged as the uncontested champion of causing harm to our planet).
The forces you are intrested in can cause total society collapses, 90% population deaths long term. Worthy of study but diffrent causes. Peters collapses are 20 years of mass poverty while the eletes are rich beyond there dreams. France 1789 was the richest country in europe but had pesant farmers. who refused to pay the rents when the revolution started then killed the aristocrats by the 10s of thousands.
A “jubilee” for student loans means that the janitor will be paying taxes to forgive the student loans taken out his doctor, lawyer, and banker! How will that boost the economy?
Excellent broadcast! I have heard of the concept of "Elite Overproduction", but I didn't know what it was REALLY about. It fits. I think our country has really only two problems: Elite Overproduction, and Ideology that is anathema to Democracy (not necessarily in that order). I am also relieved that there are non-apocalyptic solutions for it! Thank you!
Too many aspirants compared to existing roles as a source of conflict makes sense. But what about when you have more people from retreating from the existing structures?
Externalized power obsession on a wide scale tends to cause issues. Will-to-power has become inflated in society, breeding conflict between individuals as it is an inherently selfish value and an asocial driver. I also believe that too much stock is put in desire in our modern civilization as an example of unbalanced priorities. Anything negative is commonly thought of as 'wrong' or 'evil'. This adversarial mindset in all aspects of life is infantile; An indication or the narrowness of one's mindset. It has not been uncommon throughout history for elite fashions to eventually become commonplace, only for elites to change fashions which reinforce their distinction from the lower classes once the old fashion has become commonplace. This bodes true for both aesthetics and ideas. The imagery and memes of elites trickle down in the society. Jung may have termed it, "banking one's inner gold" with an outside persona (a politician, celebrity, etc.). When people put stock in, admire, or become attached to a public personality they are more willing to adopt their idol's sensibilities. The problem is when you lack thought leaders, a society doesn't have something to concentrate on. Like an individual, a human society requires a teleology to maintain cohesion. Without a goal or ideal end state, a society has no reason to maintain its structure. When the society loses focus or loses a sense of mission, it naturally disintegrates as the priorities and decision making splays out in all directions amongst individuals and groups.
“Pro-social” people give up some of their advantages for the group. Ok - Right and Left will see this differently. The Right will say the “selfish” (as the author calls them) that must give up some of their advantage would be those that are capable of producing but refuse to while collecting entitlements on the tax payer’s dime. The Left would call the “selfish” The business owners, whites, men, etc. Both the poor and wealthy can be selfish and have advantages.
How many payed 90% tax after the new deal? The data shows that, between 1950 and 1959, the top 1 percent of taxpayers paid an average of 42.0 percent of their income in federal, state, and local taxes. Since then, the average effective tax rate of the top 1 percent has declined slightly overall. In 2014, the top 1 percent of taxpayers paid an average tax rate of 36.4 percent. During Eisenhower's presidency, the corporate tax rate ranged from 30 to 52%, according to the Tax Foundation's historical data on U.S. federal corporate income taxes. He might need to look up Thomas Sowell to get some perspective on that era and taxation etc.
So we are going with the New Deal worked. The economy didn't recover until the war. We had a second recession in the back half of the 1930s that if it happened today would be considered catastrophic. But the cartoon tale that the New Deal worked persists.
The New Deal worked as a political project designed to push back against fascism from the right and communism from the left. Measuring its success purely via economic metrics misses the point Peter's making.
Saagar occasionally joins for interviews and is on our biweekly Supercast subscriber Q&A episodes. Now that I'm in Texas and BP's ramping up for 2024, our schedules just aren't compatible.
It is a marginal tax rate which means most of the rich people’s income was never taxed at 90%. Only the money they made at the extreme high end was taxed at 90%.
Actually I think Elvis Presley was the only one who paid 90%. Everybody else avoided it. Whenever some politician proposes a really steep progressive tax, you can be sure she has already planned the cutouts for herself and her friends and donors.
Even on the marginal income in the top bracket, the effective tax rate was much lower. There were loads of write offs and deductions and loopholes. Nobody actually paid 90%.
I took a few months off from these. Marshall asks better questions than Damn near anybody I have heard. Love these keep up the good work.
0
😢Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.
Marshall is an elite RUclipsr, LOL.
This is a great assessment of a collapse. This is totallly what happened in the course of my life. Too many people now have useless education and no skills. I wiuld still many small businesses (including farmers, fisherman, ect) locally ran for trades and production of products is the most important way to create a flourishing moddle class as the majority of the population. This however does require common culture and values. Without that, no one can trust each other and social interactions become really hostile.
Many of us were forced into college when we really did not want to go. What we wanted were trades but that was destroyed by elites who made the decisins to strip more profits out of companies for personal gain and moved nearly all the manufacturing overseas. This was a key destabilizer for most of the lower middle class who made up a sizeable population of the broader middle class.
Ps credentialism is extortion. It basically iperates as a bribe of tens of thousands of dollars to get your foot in the door.
Agreed.
Signed,
Someone with too many useless degrees. 💀
Accurate.
"War and Peace and War" is for me the best summary of all Turchin's work that is very accessible for the general audience. It also addresses the 'elite over production' demographic issue in great detail without being too academic.
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.😮
accessible? he's delusional. these concepts are orthogonal.
"Elites are exterminated" -- Honestly can't wait for that part...
the patrician to pleb exchange rate is logarithmic, not sure the latter would agree when faced with the meat grinder
And new ones emerge. Sometimes they fuel the extermination of their competitors.
People should be allowed into top position only after decade or so of productive work.
You are the elite. So be careful.
This is an insanely good episode. Thanks for bringing this guy to my attention
😢😊
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.😮
Excellent guest. This might be my favorite guest you have had.
“ There are no Solutions, only Trade offs “, Thomas Sowell
One of the most important thinkers of our age.
Yes he is, and people don't like what he has to say....
@@efanshelprove that’s the case
Great interview. I've seen others with Turchin, and each host asks such interesting questions. This interview was no exception. I have his latest book and am looking forward to starting it tonight!
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.🎉😮
lol @ 16 minutes:
We all suspected it, but now we have proof! The ultimate downfall of society? Too many lawyers!
I have always said over competition or excessive competition is counter productive.
It's the debt-based money system, Money.
It's not the shoes.
What a great interview. I left with a good half dozen new tantalizing ideas floating around in my head. Couldn't ask for more.
Enjoyed the interview. I appreciate those with an insightful macro view and who can connect the dots in constructive, instructive, useful ways. I will probably put Dr. Turchin's book on my 2024 reading pile.
Yeah, we read while the elite continue killing us. Just the way they want it.
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.
Really good questions. I'm glad to see there are a lot of interviews with Peter Turchin for his new book.
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.
The elite he is talking about don't produce, they extract from working people.
GDP statistics show a rising proportion of GDP as being rentier income for banks and bondholders, absentee landlords and monopolists. Their interest charges, penalty fees on debtors, and real estate and monopoly rents, are reported as reflecting a product in the form of “financial services” or the services of landlordship or kindred rent extraction.
These payments leave less disposable income for wage earners and businesses to spend on production and consumption in the “real” economy. That is the phenomenon of debt deflation and rent deflation, discussed in Chapters 4 and 5. Such payments are thus antithetical to adding to real product. They are transfer payments from income earners to rentiers.
Michael Hudson. The Destiny of Civilization
Hmmm would this favor increasing debt? The rents appear to produce a return, hence demand for borrowing to increase rents.
Non-landlords are seeing rent increases outpace more than revenue increases (ex subsidies, special tax and contract deals, etc), hence debt to fund consumption.
Enter the "financial service" of interest rate volatility! You don't mine it it transport it; you psyop the public into providing liquidity at different price levels so the large players can enter and exit the debt market, freeing up capital to be re deployed on the next -ponzi- "development zone"
But anyway. Point is that the time value of money can just be repriced to re-value the last (and next?) 10, 20, 40 years of consumption and investment. Very helpful depending who you ask.
So why not push the debt musical chairs game to its limits? Let things deteriorate, let the greed and desperation drive up debt, and be in the correct place on the ship when it finally breaks.
@@OurNewestMember Over 40% of income has nothing to do with producing anything or hours worked, it is an extraction from the real economy. This is the Libertarian/Austrian/Chicago School neoliberal “free market”, the opposite of the meaning Adam Smith and the classical economists intended for the term, which is to mean free FROM economic rent not free FOR economic rent.
“It is suggested that the tipping point for being a rentier economy is when 40 per cent of income comes from rent. Even if just interest and dividends are counted as rent, the USA is already at that point.”
Standing, Guy. The Corruption of Capitalism (p. 114). 2016
@@spiritofgoldfish that's a massive problem, but how can you ignore billions in subsidies and preferential contracts to the most influential economic actors? In pharma, agriculture, energy, "health care", "defense", etc. ...Or ignore the increasing proportion of GDP spent by govt and not general actors?
Where tf is this "free market" you're taking about?
This is the concentrated influence over the use of force to enforce an increasingly complex set of tax and procurement and "accountability" rules that increasingly benefit an increasingly concentrated group of people.
Then it's ideologically supported by the controlling group funding propaganda campaigns to lie the public into not getting in the way of further concentrating power.
I cannot think of a single "free market" that exists in the western world today. Information is manipulated on social media (algorithms), in financial markets, in the "news", from the govt (eg, secrecy laws; it's illegal to lie to Congress, a court, and possibly law enforcement, but no immediate penalty for pubic officials lying to the public), the "subsidies" already mentioned (wealth redistribution by force), and so on.
Most anything that people buy is under the conditions of rising asset and consumer prices and lopsided rules, so even if a regular person wants to become an extractive landlord, they won't be able to get money at the same price (to say nothing of different access to promotional materials and cost-saving measures, but you could argue those differences are more due to "pure" market forces).
Basically, it would be no wonder that the economy is at a disastrous 40% rent-seeking/extractive level, but that's exactly what you would expect when a small group of people continually use all available tools to bend the rules in their own favor, not free markets.
@@spiritofgoldfish I think "neoliberal free market" is just part of the long tradition of some people lying to take advantage of others (at scale). Just like some do with wars, pubic policy on food, energy, govt contracts, housing, etc.
If it wasn't neoliberal or neoconservative, it would be some other flavor of saying one thing, doing another, and walking out the door with the goods, whether or not it already has a name
@@OurNewestMember Mainstream ideology has twisted the meaning of "free market" into the opposite of what the classical economists like Adam Smith intended. The classical economists defined a free market as free FROM economic rents (unearned income), extracted by feudal landlords. The classical role of government is to keep natural monopolies in the public domain and tax away economic rents to use it to lower the cost of production. This is done through subsidies for such things as public infrastructure, education, and health care, not raising the cost of living and therefore the cost of labor, as with neoliberal monopolistic privatization.
Mainstream Austrian and Libertarian Chicago School neoliberals have no role for the government in the economy, leaving the market free FOR economic rents, extracted by monopolies and the banks (FIRE, finance, insurance, and real estate). Because the economy does not stay out of government, the result is rule by the rentier oligarchy, otherwise called feudalism.
These two approaches, industrial capitalism and financial capitalism, are what the new cold war is all about, and it is the story of financial capitalism sucking ever more life out of once vibrant US industrial capitalism.
“It is suggested that the tipping point for being a rentier economy is when 40 per cent of income comes from rent. Even if just interest and dividends are counted as rent, the USA is already at that point.”
Standing, Guy. The Corruption of Capitalism (p. 114). 2016
This is the second of your podcasts that I have watched; they both included very important individuals. Your professionalism, treatment of the guests, and adeptness in questioning and commenting are very commendable. Great job!!!
Thank you so much for your accurate and in-depth journalism! I look forward to much more 👍🏼!
I'm always cautious of those who propose a more mechanistic view of complex systems. That said, they certainly are good at identifying important variables.
use the observations, form your own conclusions
Until we see the raw data, he supposedly built his ideas on, we cannot take his propositions, models, conjectures too seriously.
Plus: "elite overproduction" conceptually rhymes with "I'm a secret Marxist"; Marxists being obsessed with overproduction.
But is it over production by elites or over production of elites?
@@lukegardner6917 Or elites being over production? That is: exporting production elsewhere!
Elites don't produce anything so it cannot be "over production by elites". Turchin's saying: there are too many elites. The system made too many.
sure, these can always be a trojan horse meant to trap you in a fruitless thought pattern or red herring, but that why you read first hand accounts and multiple theories to formulate your own ideas
What a unique view of economic and social history. More should think this through.
Incredibly interesting stuff. Superb interview! Thank you
Really glad to see Dr. Turchin speaking about his novel but rigorous approach to history here. Marshall did an amazing job with insightful questions.
The French aristocracy would not budge though Louis 16th wanted reforms. It's always entrenched interests that cause revolution eventually, in African colonial wars too. Shortage of cheap energy since 1980, or cheap borrowing now ending, means less wealth creation to spread around. There is growing anger everywhere in the West so I don't see a new deal working.
Actually its even worse at this point with so much inflation people in ordinary jobs struggle to get food especially singles which are now the majority. Its not even elite aspiration at this point it comes closer to a "let them eat cake" moment.
The elites want you to eat Tech😅
@@marianhunt8899 I often said that TVs go down in price in hopes of distracting people from everything else going up in price.
Very enjoyable and clearly articulated interview
Compensation flattened largely because of globalism. Companies went to China and other countries for cheap labor. This devalued American workers and created huge wealth disparity, destroying the middle class in America.
Superb analysis and concise with the beginning making the events of today easier understod. Than you.
Taxes and social spending plus jubilees to redistribute wealth will remove the “elite bump”. I am all for that. Add nationalizing banks and the energy sector and we would be all set. One can only hope.
Excellent, 5hank you
So enlightening, thank you both.
In the wake of the GFC Obama certainly did have the opportunity to implement radical reforms that might have begun to reverse the wealth pump Turchin describes. In retrospect his inability to meaningfully move the needle towards more equitable reforms reflects more a lack of desire and will to do so than structural impediments hampering political action.
Obama was a classic phoney. Pretty speeches but a neocon/neoliberal at his core. A huge disappointment. AOC is the same. He was also ineffective as a Politician in terms of getting things done. He genuinely wanted to do Healthcare but stupidly tried to build consensus with the Republican Party. That was politically naïve. He had a majority in the Senate and the House. That was the time to strike. That's what LBJ would've done.
The elites were firmly back at the controls when Obama was potus. Early 80’s was when they were back in total control.
His progressive rhetoric was just a grift, as are the words coming out of most progressives. They just want to take your money and scream in your face to shut up.
Obama seemed to come out of nowhere to win the Presidency.
McCain started out being the front runner, but soon began to falter, probably because of his at the time undisclosed brain tumor that ultimately took his life. The financial elites had been counting on him to give them even more bailout money, but he was becoming unpredictable and unreliable.
The Elites chose Obama as their perfect candidate, he was a shining example of the American Dream who aspired to become one of them. Wall Street financed and supported him as much as possible, because he was willing to be THEIR man in the White House. Someone who had the intelligence and personal charm to articulate THEIR message, while also articulating the campaign message of "Hope and Change" to the beleaguered American Public.
There was never ANY intention by Obama and his backers to deliver on this message...it was all just false advertising. He spent his entire 2 terms giving great speeches full of excuses for why he couldn't deliver, without ever admitting the unspeakable and real reasons why not.
He said 15% of these "wealth pump" society's resolve in a positive way. I'm curious how that was calculated. Was FDR's New deal part of that 15%? Would the elites of the time have allowed it if it wasn't for the fact that their equals overseas were being slaughtered in various revolutions? What percentage of wealth pumps have been stopped both without violence and without a global environment of violence? Any chance we can duplicate that?
Not the answer you want but the "wealth pump" narrative is nonsense. You are going to get conflict, the resolution of which might lead to instability/significant change, whenever there are two groups with power that disagree. There are many ways to acquire power - the need to collapse that to a "wealth pump" is not an objective search for truth by Turchin but an ideological need to frame the narrative within socialism - with the solution being wealth enforced equity so you don't produce any elites.
The West is unstable now because all our key institutions are corrupted. The institutions don't raise people to the top their hierarchies based on competency. Unsurprisingly the general population won't acquiesce to authority, when they don't believe the authority is competent or that people reach those positions did so based on merit - the authority is no longer legitimate. It's got nothing to do with "an over-production of elites" or wealth pumps - we are living in a corrupt and decadent society. Partly the victim of it's own success, everyone believes the system will just carry on and the only need is to try and extract as much as possible from it for yourself - there is absolutely no one who is trying to protect and nourish the system any more. Highly likely we are living through the end time of Western civilisation.
Look at how corrupt the great social justice movements are these days - feminism now demands you believe men are toxic, civil rights movement that everything is racist when it's clearly and Western countries are the most free and equal, and the sexual revolution culminated in raising trans rights above all other people's rights and forcing inappropriate medical solutions on children. None of those movements are searching for equal treatment any more, they are all corrupted power movements. Their mantras are more often illogical, inconsistent and deeply hypocritical - but people are willing to turn a blind eye to allow continued acceptance of their ideologies, continued participation "in the group", as it's less painful than challenging themselves and those around them and performing independent critical analysis in a search for real truth.
People believe it's acceptable to reach their SJW goals through tyrannical application of power to cancel and eradicate anyone that doesn't agree with them. Censorship and oppression of "enemies" is rife, core concepts such as innocent until proven guilty tossed aside, because people want to be able to destroy others with mere rumour and speculation. Without realising it, everything is being put in place that will facilitate complete totalitarianism. On top of that the average person is unwilling to take responsibility for their lives and demanding the state solve all their problems for them, act as their parents... unwittingly concentrating more and more power in the hands of the state... in a political system that is already utterly corrupted. It's not hard to see the end of freedom and democracy and a new age of tyranny. 2/3rds of the world doesn't live in a free or democratic society - it's precious, delicate and precious if you have it. But people are throwing it away just to "win" arguments and debate and impose their desired solutions on society.
It's easy to unite people with little to nothing around a common set of goals around improving society. But how do you unite people who have it all and now take everything they have for granted, as if it's their right and it will continue in perpetuity, regardless of the standards of our collective behaviour, because they fundamentally believe the system is impervious and could never collapse. Decadence. Look at the fall of the Roman empire for the most obvious equivalence in history.
If you got to the end - well done. Long post. Complex subject But none of this is to do with "over production of elites" or "wealth pumps".
its interesting he mostly highlighted the living memory of the civil war, perhaps turchin wanted to present a more hopeful picture of humans lol
I think he stated the New Deal was part of the 15%. The detail he didn't get into much though was that there were huge communist and labour movements in the US at the time who were threatening to bring capatalism to an end. They were powerful enough to make good their threat and FDR was smart enough to recognise this - hence the New Deal. He actually went to the elites of the US and told them they would have to give up some of their wealth if they wanted to survive and enough of them did what FDR asked for it to work. If there was a less astute leader at the time we might have ended up with a communist USA and a very different world - somebody should write an alternative history 🙂
ENJOYING YOUR SHOW (FRESH VOICE IN THE LANDSCAPE)!!
Thank you for an excellent interview, this is a fascinating and very convincing analysis.
I would love to see this theory applied to South Africa in the present day and in the 1980s-1990s. Nelson Mandela was another lawyer who became a leader.
Great interview and guest and interviewer.
An over production of elites or just an overproduction of pretenders, Liars, wasters, cronies, lackeys, etc.
Discuss.
An overproduction of wannabes who were sold the idea that if they just did the right things, they would be elites.
"Help me kind of unpack, this is a really long question, Help me to unpack what i´m trying to struggle in here"
This is one of the most intelectually honest things that i have ever saw in life. YOur question was so brilliant that i lost the sense of time while you are making it, like i was journeying completely, in the wisdom of the details.
Your question was a genius work of art.
Outstanding interviewer.
The wealth pump is global and outside the governance of any one nation control. Global capital and the plutocrats that own it has sort of turned nations into just markets. Not to mention the devolution of government and polarization of politics complicates any course correction.
This is true for most countries, but large nations like the US and China can short-circuit this process.
This guy is a Genius making questions.
That question about the 2020 being like the 1850's and 60's was godlike clarity in intelectual form.
Well done you. Best interview I've heardqith Peter T. If you'd like to come and teach my UGs in London how to ask insightful questions ..... thank you.
I haven’t heard yet the sending of our manufacturing jobs overseas and the lack of. emphasis on the value of vocational jobs as a career. Two many unneeded business degrees. You also haven’t mention the inability to save caused partly by easy access
to credit cards plus the lack of ability to save money due the need for instant gratification .
@@busyb8676 Many do not save because the sky high inflation destroys the savings.
"In any system of energy, Control is what consumes energy the most.
No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores.
No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it.
This universal truth applies to all systems.
Energy, like time, flows from past to future" (2017).
Boomers shafted us.
Yup.
In their defense, most boomers are completely oblivious to the issues, as many of them were able to ride the wave created by the wealth pump. Most of the "wealth pump" policies went into place when they were very young adults with no political power.
1965 immigration act(labor devalued and americans pushed out of affordable communities by demographic change), 1971 ending of the gold standard (wages debased by inflation), and the beginning of neoliberal economic policy in 1981 (driving asset prices perpetually upwards) all happened before most boomers hit 30. Admission of China into the WTO is the only major wealth pump factor that boomers, as a generation, had a say in. Thats only 1 of 4.
Because they believed the script handed to them about being a good citizen…lesson? Always question the script you’re handed…and try to peek ahead to the end of the play and analyze what the “ finale” will bring! If it’s headed to wealth gap…throw it in the trash.
that's the long and short of it
Great discussion.
The tax rate was never 90% the official rate on paper there were so many exceptions that the practical rate was much much less
1837 European revolutions have same similarities to what he says but different countries had different outcomes.
Fantastic interviewer 😊 interesting talk
38:59 - I view the center as the lowest point on the letter ‘V’. The Left & The Right are the apex points of the “V”. As you move away from the extreme ends, you descend and fade towards the center.
Putin, a lawyer too. Rule of the lawyers, not the rule of law.
Fantastic interview. Questions perfectly attuned to clear up some of Turchin’s more abstruse points. Bravo
Super questions from the interviewer!
The guests pov sounds vaguely Marxist, but his end conclusion is interesting.
Excellent interview.
One point he is missing is elites who are not connected to the downside of their actions, media , lawyers , senior managers of shareholder owned companies and senior public servants have more power than responsibility. Society needs wealthy successful business owners who live or die on their results.
Just found your channel tonight. Great content. Keep up the good work bro!!
Wow, what a great interview. Buying the book 😊
Thank you.
Modern debt jubilee would work better than a traditional debt jubilee
I thought when I first heard about the Great reset. I thought it meant a debt jubilee
Although I’m center left, though turchin makes me rethink that label, interesting that he calls the corn laws a big part of the Uk avoiding revolution, as that is one of the free market’s greatest hits. Turchin has a nuanced view of free market clearly
Loved his take, very interesting perspective on social/political disruption
Things that can be predicted cannot be changed. Determinism rules the day.
Too many roosters in the hen yard upsetting the farm. Time to thin out the roosters? Too much money concentrated in the hands of too few, causes too much mischief.
Thanks! Resonates as true.
Be curious to know his positions on immigration and globalization.
From the book he main considers how things affect the twin forces of instability, elite overproduction and popular immiseration. Immigration drives down the cost of labor increasing immiseration and is mentioned in a book as a historical strategy that American Elites used to construct a wealth pump. He doesn't mention globalization in the book but you can probably deduce his thinking. If globalization exports middle class jobs and increases profits for the elite, this causes instability. If the lower cost of goods from cheaply made imports increase the disposable income of the populace, then immiseration is reduced. I'll leave you to decided which effect is greater.
@elsade2000 kind of what I figured, I just wondered if he ever explicitly talks about either. I forgot I put one of his books on my list years ago and never got to it. I had heard his name and "elite overproduction" around but I think this is the first talk I've heard with him.
Love Marshall and his manners. Not white, not black, merely excellent.
I think he is black
A great interviewer first of all. The theory is seductive and certainly has very strong points. However, the narrative it creates about the New Deal would deserve some pushback. For instance, some economists argue that New Deal policies led to stagnation and prolongation of the depression and that only the war has the serendipitous effect of getting out of the mess. And that seems to be supported by data, even if the political narrative is seductive.
Ok 50% of usa GDP was in Banks before the depression started. THe banks fell and took the econemy with it. 5% unem[;yment to 20% unemployment at the hight. If the new deal reduced the anger and class hate from mass unemplotment it worked. They would have been the foot solders of a revolution. The stagnation could well be true but it solved a political problem the ecomamists dont think about. Did working class wages improve? Wikipiedea shows the great depression had ended by 1939 two years before the WW2 started.
@@BeachandHills-hb2pq So perhaps it was a short term fix with long term costs?
excellent! Thanks for sharing.
I can see that I’ll have to Re listen to this interview
Very interesting. Thank you.
29:00 nobody ever paid that much in taxes. There were so many deductions and loopholes that it made it impossible to tax anyone that had a halfway decent CPA that much. Effective tax rates for that entire era were no more than 2-3% higher than they have been at any point in the 20-21 centuries
i was surprised the host let that be
But there are more loopholes now and lower rates! Taxes were definitely higher on the wealthy decades ago and it helped to maintain better social cohesion.
Thanks for the interesting video.
One thing I feel people never discuss is WHAT LABOR PRODUCTIVITY really is. If you fall on the side that the majority of labor productivity gains were from capital inflows into infrastructure and technology, rather than the workers actually becoming more productive by their own accord, then yes, it would make sense for wages to stagnate.
What do you define labor productivity as? Also wages were rising along with investments until the 70s it didn’t stop until offshoring which wouldn’t have been a problem if we took that capital and invested in R&D and infrastructure
Labor productivity is one of the main economics metrics and published by the BLS: www.bls.gov/k12/productivity-101/content/how-is-productivity-measured/calculating-productivity.htm
@@camdencapps6894I truly believe that moving from a gold standard to fiat based money moved all of the leverage from the labor to those with capital. Through interest and debt, those with assets were able to keep ahead of inflation. It also moved the investments from productive assets like manufacturing facilities to scarce stores of value like real estate.
The problem is there is no net productivity meritocracy. If a corporation outcompetes a smaller producer, and does so through technical change, it is an open question as to whether this is in fact good, even for production, in the long term. It also confuses management, ownership, labor, and exogenous relationships which are complicated.
@@BMoore335 As in via consolidation / monopolistic tendency? I want to hear more of what you mean
Dr. Turchin cataloged +400 civilizations, 182 of them had enough Data to surmise,(guess at) how civilizations collapse, which is driven by wealth disparity, too few msga rich, and too many poor people. 85-90% of the time ending in violence! French revolution, Russian revolution, ect.
How does the failing dollar as world reserve currency factor into this?
This talk of the elites reminds me of the verse in the Quran
And when God intends to destroy a city, He command its affluent but they defiantly disobey; so the word comes into effect upon it, and We destroy it completely. [17:16]
I consider this as a serious attempt at understanding 'historical phenomena'. That said, I am shocked that not enough reference is made to flora, fauna, climate, geological and 'cosmic' forces. A human-centered analysis cannot suffice to understand and guide our fragile, heterotroph species (that should be acknowledged as the uncontested champion of causing harm to our planet).
The forces you are intrested in can cause total society collapses, 90% population deaths long term. Worthy of study but diffrent causes. Peters collapses are 20 years of mass poverty while the eletes are rich beyond there dreams. France 1789 was the richest country in europe but had pesant farmers. who refused to pay the rents when the revolution started then killed the aristocrats by the 10s of thousands.
Love your shirt! Now, let’s get educated.
A “jubilee” for student loans means that the janitor will be paying taxes to forgive the student loans taken out his doctor, lawyer, and banker! How will that boost the economy?
Excellent broadcast! I have heard of the concept of "Elite Overproduction", but I didn't know what it was REALLY about. It fits. I think our country has really only two problems: Elite Overproduction, and Ideology that is anathema to Democracy (not necessarily in that order). I am also relieved that there are non-apocalyptic solutions for it! Thank you!
Makes a lot of things add up. And I'd like to add my vote for a high top tax rate.
Too many aspirants compared to existing roles as a source of conflict makes sense.
But what about when you have more people from retreating from the existing structures?
He argues there is a "precarity" effect, but he argues again that these lower elites still compete for premier spots, just at a lower level
Very succinct.
Externalized power obsession on a wide scale tends to cause issues. Will-to-power has become inflated in society, breeding conflict between individuals as it is an inherently selfish value and an asocial driver. I also believe that too much stock is put in desire in our modern civilization as an example of unbalanced priorities. Anything negative is commonly thought of as 'wrong' or 'evil'. This adversarial mindset in all aspects of life is infantile; An indication or the narrowness of one's mindset.
It has not been uncommon throughout history for elite fashions to eventually become commonplace, only for elites to change fashions which reinforce their distinction from the lower classes once the old fashion has become commonplace. This bodes true for both aesthetics and ideas. The imagery and memes of elites trickle down in the society. Jung may have termed it, "banking one's inner gold" with an outside persona (a politician, celebrity, etc.). When people put stock in, admire, or become attached to a public personality they are more willing to adopt their idol's sensibilities. The problem is when you lack thought leaders, a society doesn't have something to concentrate on. Like an individual, a human society requires a teleology to maintain cohesion. Without a goal or ideal end state, a society has no reason to maintain its structure. When the society loses focus or loses a sense of mission, it naturally disintegrates as the priorities and decision making splays out in all directions amongst individuals and groups.
“Pro-social” people give up some of their advantages for the group. Ok - Right and Left will see this differently. The Right will say the “selfish” (as the author calls them) that must give up some of their advantage would be those that are capable of producing but refuse to while collecting entitlements on the tax payer’s dime. The Left would call the “selfish” The business owners, whites, men, etc. Both the poor and wealthy can be selfish and have advantages.
11:00 google " WTF happened in 1971" for the receipts
What about the overproduction of creative elites? Why can't we, "overproduce" a few more Charlie Parkers?
i was entertained by this malarkee
A new NOW. Stay tuned.
Loved it! New point of view this is helpful
I'm wondering how much Peter Turchin borrowed from Vico. Very insightful questions.
This guy really asks questions in detail. An elite wouldn't stand a chance being interviewed by him😂
How many payed 90% tax after the new deal?
The data shows that, between 1950 and 1959, the top 1 percent of taxpayers paid an average of 42.0 percent of their income in federal, state, and local taxes. Since then, the average effective tax rate of the top 1 percent has declined slightly overall. In 2014, the top 1 percent of taxpayers paid an average tax rate of 36.4 percent.
During Eisenhower's presidency, the corporate tax rate ranged from 30 to 52%, according to the Tax Foundation's historical data on U.S. federal corporate income taxes.
He might need to look up Thomas Sowell to get some perspective on that era and taxation etc.
That's a wonderful interview, thanks.
Vote Libertarian 💯 n00bs 🔥🔥🔥 ✊
So we are going with the New Deal worked. The economy didn't recover until the war. We had a second recession in the back half of the 1930s that if it happened today would be considered catastrophic. But the cartoon tale that the New Deal worked persists.
The New Deal worked as a political project designed to push back against fascism from the right and communism from the left.
Measuring its success purely via economic metrics misses the point Peter's making.
Harness the rich and work them for all they are worth.
Shocking. People in power feather their own nests.
Thomas Friedman is in the center?
Wait, where's Saagar? Did he leave?
Saagar occasionally joins for interviews and is on our biweekly Supercast subscriber Q&A episodes. Now that I'm in Texas and BP's ramping up for 2024, our schedules just aren't compatible.
Ever read or heard of "The Leopard", original Italian title "Il Gattopardo"?
It is a marginal tax rate which means most of the rich people’s income was never taxed at 90%. Only the money they made at the extreme high end was taxed at 90%.
Actually I think Elvis Presley was the only one who paid 90%. Everybody else avoided it.
Whenever some politician proposes a really steep progressive tax, you can be sure she has already planned the cutouts for herself and her friends and donors.
Even on the marginal income in the top bracket, the effective tax rate was much lower. There were loads of write offs and deductions and loopholes. Nobody actually paid 90%.