Great video! On top of the points you made GAW has a FCF yield of 5-6%, plus a 5Y FCF average growth rate over 30%. Not a bad prospect vs. a 4.5% treasury in my opinion. I'm a big fan of the candour and transparency in the annual reports.
8:00 You say all this, about their great margins and how easily they can produce product, yet they can't keep anything in stock to save their lives. I've been waiting for over 10 months for one little tiny model (Callidus Assassin) to be back in stock in Canada. You could almost think they hate selling products. Imagine their annual profits if they their production wasn't running at 30% at all times.
So sorry for the long response, but your short comment has a lot of factors. This for me is the difference between what a warhammer fan wants and what an investor wants. First Running out of Stock: Running out of stock from an investors point of view is a good thing, it is worse to have too much inventory. Make no mistake, having worked in injection moulding for 5 years they could easily print double and only lose tiny bit of margin. But they would lose margin and ultimately they'd need to store the excess and having excess would probably lead to a the perceived value of the little bits of plastic dropping. So they intentionally print less than what they will ultimately need. 30% Production: BUT - big but - to their credit, once they have printed a bunch, even though they have the tool it is not like they can just turn the machine back on and print more. These machines can take a full day to install a new tool and lots can go wrong. If you don't notice an air pocket in set up you could accidentally make 2000 faulty kits and lose a whole day of production. Some tools I've designed have taken 15 seconds for the plastic to cool in the mould, that means 1 $250k machine makes 4 a minute, 240 and hour, 2880 per day, with this you can see how they produce parts cheap, but also quickly reach a ceiling for how many they can make in a day. You can just set the machine to produce 5 an hour instead of 4. I think people think of injection moulding machines as fast, they are, but its more that they are cheap and just never need to rest. The benefit of the machine is it only asks for a little bit of electricity to run and then will work all day producing near identical products, no expensive salaries to worry about once it is going. The most important person is the person deciding what to print, you have to make large assumptions about what people will want 6 months from now. Demand: What is remarkable is how long people are willing to wait for parts, that shows competitive advantage to an investor. It is important not to leave people waiting too long, but to me you are proving the investments worth.
The Point is that he has no point beside " gross margins good" for GW : If I would ask him what he would say If apple or coca cola did not produce enough to meet demands we would get a non-answer and dial up modems sounds. Lock at this first comment in this video. He didn't check in on 3D printing for around 6+ Years (a youtube search away) which is a major point of interest for his "investments" I gave hin in his last video 8 bachelor level economics question/reaseach points in his first GW Video. Which for examples was the question why GW is unable to increase their production capabilities and my claim that they just have incapable leadership and to much work to get the red tape done for a 4th factory. He made an attempt to answer to 2 and none of them were subject in this video. He just concern himself with KPI and is detached from the product he invest in.
IMO entertainment stocks are always a massive risk and usually not worth it. Its impossible to predict future public reception to entertainment products like you can with other products.
In my opinion though, when you get too boiled down, you wind up with just coca cola, the only stock that goes up in pretty much all markets, and thats not been priced cheap for yeeeeears.
7:47 "That decent 3D Printers and decent plastics and all of these things are incredibly expensive and they also fail a lot of the time" You are painfully uninformed and factual wrong.... First: they are FDM Printers then they are Resin Printers. Second: If they fail or partial fail its a skill issue of the user, print files itself or mechanical problem which needs fixing like with an injection molding machine . Third: They Are not expensive: 350€ for a Phrozen 8KS. Forth: Decent... Boy those thing prints at Voxel resolutions !Stock! of 50µmx22µmx22µm and can be tuned, whit a software setting to deliver 22µmx22µmx22µm perfection.
Wow, just checked out the printer, 3D printing has come a looooooong way since I was studying industrial design at Uni. Question, can you get the models on the printers easily? Surely market places wont let people sell copyright designs? That to me is another potentially even bigger part of their moat. The codex and the lore make it hard for people to get the latest models without pirating
@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite You will be surprised how many people are willing to put in the hours into Blender and co so stick it to GW, spite goes a long way. Answer: yes very easily. Copyrighted designs? You did mean the free of charge "three dimensional fanart" ?
@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite honestly, people want the real thing. there is a developong stigma amongst more serious tournaments. 3D prints are here to stay and will only get better, there are HUGE telegram channels full of every type of GW product that has ever been produced, but most 3d prints simply enhance the original product. The sales wont slow as a consequence.
@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite let’s see: Endless cycles of power creep Constantly splitting in the face of faces Endless price hikes Shafting Henry Cavill Overzealous IP protection
![Lil Uzi Vert - Chill Bae [Official Music Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/D7F42F_JM3U/mqdefault.jpg)
Great video! On top of the points you made GAW has a FCF yield of 5-6%, plus a 5Y FCF average growth rate over 30%. Not a bad prospect vs. a 4.5% treasury in my opinion. I'm a big fan of the candour and transparency in the annual reports.
They just hit another all time high. Invested in them since they where at 95 Euro
8:00 You say all this, about their great margins and how easily they can produce product, yet they can't keep anything in stock to save their lives. I've been waiting for over 10 months for one little tiny model (Callidus Assassin) to be back in stock in Canada. You could almost think they hate selling products. Imagine their annual profits if they their production wasn't running at 30% at all times.
So sorry for the long response, but your short comment has a lot of factors. This for me is the difference between what a warhammer fan wants and what an investor wants.
First Running out of Stock:
Running out of stock from an investors point of view is a good thing, it is worse to have too much inventory. Make no mistake, having worked in injection moulding for 5 years they could easily print double and only lose tiny bit of margin. But they would lose margin and ultimately they'd need to store the excess and having excess would probably lead to a the perceived value of the little bits of plastic dropping. So they intentionally print less than what they will ultimately need.
30% Production:
BUT - big but - to their credit, once they have printed a bunch, even though they have the tool it is not like they can just turn the machine back on and print more. These machines can take a full day to install a new tool and lots can go wrong. If you don't notice an air pocket in set up you could accidentally make 2000 faulty kits and lose a whole day of production. Some tools I've designed have taken 15 seconds for the plastic to cool in the mould, that means 1 $250k machine makes 4 a minute, 240 and hour, 2880 per day, with this you can see how they produce parts cheap, but also quickly reach a ceiling for how many they can make in a day. You can just set the machine to produce 5 an hour instead of 4.
I think people think of injection moulding machines as fast, they are, but its more that they are cheap and just never need to rest.
The benefit of the machine is it only asks for a little bit of electricity to run and then will work all day producing near identical products, no expensive salaries to worry about once it is going. The most important person is the person deciding what to print, you have to make large assumptions about what people will want 6 months from now.
Demand:
What is remarkable is how long people are willing to wait for parts, that shows competitive advantage to an investor. It is important not to leave people waiting too long, but to me you are proving the investments worth.
The Point is that he has no point beside " gross margins good" for GW : If I would ask him what he would say If apple or coca cola did not produce enough to meet demands we would get a non-answer and dial up modems sounds. Lock at this first comment in this video. He didn't check in on 3D printing for around 6+ Years (a youtube search away) which is a major point of interest for his "investments" I gave hin in his last video 8 bachelor level economics question/reaseach points in his first GW Video. Which for examples was the question why GW is unable to increase their production capabilities and my claim that they just have incapable leadership and to much work to get the red tape done for a 4th factory. He made an attempt to answer to 2 and none of them were subject in this video. He just concern himself with KPI and is detached from the product he invest in.
Great video, and eagerly awaiting your take on yesterday’s WBD earnings!
yes, think that will be the next vid :D
IMO entertainment stocks are always a massive risk and usually not worth it. Its impossible to predict future public reception to entertainment products like you can with other products.
In my opinion though, when you get too boiled down, you wind up with just coca cola, the only stock that goes up in pretty much all markets, and thats not been priced cheap for yeeeeears.
7:47 "That decent 3D Printers and decent plastics and all of these things are incredibly expensive and they also fail a lot of the time" You are painfully uninformed and factual wrong.... First: they are FDM Printers then they are Resin Printers. Second: If they fail or partial fail its a skill issue of the user, print files itself or mechanical problem which needs fixing like with an injection molding machine . Third: They Are not expensive: 350€ for a Phrozen 8KS. Forth: Decent... Boy those thing prints at Voxel resolutions !Stock! of 50µmx22µmx22µm and can be tuned, whit a software setting to deliver 22µmx22µmx22µm perfection.
Wow, just checked out the printer, 3D printing has come a looooooong way since I was studying industrial design at Uni. Question, can you get the models on the printers easily? Surely market places wont let people sell copyright designs? That to me is another potentially even bigger part of their moat. The codex and the lore make it hard for people to get the latest models without pirating
@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite You will be surprised how many people are willing to put in the hours into Blender and co so stick it to GW, spite goes a long way. Answer: yes very easily. Copyrighted designs? You did mean the free of charge "three dimensional fanart" ?
@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite honestly, people want the real thing. there is a developong stigma amongst more serious tournaments. 3D prints are here to stay and will only get better, there are HUGE telegram channels full of every type of GW product that has ever been produced, but most 3d prints simply enhance the original product. The sales wont slow as a consequence.
@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite incidently how would one go about the purchase of shares of this company?
@@simoncross40K Games Workshop? or the 3D printer company?
Investing in GW at this point is a bad idea.
Please state why
@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite let’s see:
Endless cycles of power creep
Constantly splitting in the face of faces
Endless price hikes
Shafting Henry Cavill
Overzealous IP protection