There are many miniature gaming companies but none come even close to GW reach, availability and sheer variety of their catalog They don't simply sell miniatures but have a large catalog of popular fiction and graphic novels, they earn additional income from video games licenses and roleplaying game licenses Their release schedule is nothing short of incredible as they push plastic crack on people with too much money (spoken as a miniature gamer myself)
In this age of multiple streaming services etc companies with IP like games workshop have amazing potential. Pitched it to my wife for one of our investments in late 2020
I am a gamer going back to the 1980s. Now I and most my friends are 3d printing so don't buy much or anything from GW. There is a large and growing market of figure choices to compete with GW. Also GW is expensive items and with most buyers being young people with less money it can stunt company growth.
Yeah I remember playing D&D too. I would love to own a piece of this cult company. I would have thought that it had a moat as it’s just too strange for anyone else. Until I read your comment. But aren’t all the 3d printing stuff just amateur work?
Likewise, I've been a TT wargame and RPGer since the late seventies. GW amazes me, as their rules are shite, and their products are exorbitantly overpriced. I think their IP is well established though, and I can't see them folding anytime soon. The meteoric growth might be over though.
Thanks Sven. Honest question - have you ever owned a stock that 10x and held it all the way through? I doubt it because you sell so quickly. Once the stock 2x, you are happy to exit because the "risk reward isn't there anymore". I was shocked at how quick you exited a bunch of multi-baggers some I still own. I am sure you will do well and I am very entertained by your videos. You have the ability to find 10x stocks but you don't have the discipline to hold it through thick and thin. If you bought Games Workshop, you would have sold once it hit 3x and missed the 10x. The mistake is not in finding the stock. You can do it. The mistake is selling too soon.
This is funny. There are people saying like you that Sven sells too soon and other people that says that Sven is too much timing the market and the profits cone from good timing at selling. I've been subscriber for more than four years and I think, honestly, Sven sells when he sees the risk is high and buys when the risk is low. After he sells, the stock can rise, then comments like yours or the stock can fall, then the other comments pop... Speculators have always the right answer 😂
@@droghtak Another "genius comment" from a sven-atic. I was talking about buying and holding businesses REGARDLESS of the what the price does and based on fundamentals - not speculating. Sven does not have that discipline. Buffet still owns AAPL, Sven sold that after a 30% gain despite improving fundamentals. You've been a subscriber for "4 years" yet you don't seem to be aware that even Sven admits that one of his biggest mistakes is selling stocks too soon - i.e. Apple, oil stocks, Canadian stocks, etc. But what's really funny is that you had 4 years of inability to read other people's comments properly. No worries, your next 4 years will be better.
I might have mentioned GAW on a comment in one of your videos. I bought in 2018 and on a subsequent dip (since sold around the 11k mark). I was a fan of their products as a teenager so aware of their products. Pretty strong business, but I look for better opportunities now.
Hello Sven, would you be so kind and evaluate one video with CVS. They've made some aquisitions. Strong cash flow and stock really drop recently. What is your impression?
Thank you for sharing your insights and recommendations. Its great to explore various investment options, especially well-known companies like Cannafarm Ltd that are gaining popularity. Adding different ventures to our portfolio can help reduce risks in
The models are not were the value of the company is, it is the IP. Aamazon produces a series with henry chavill who is a big big fan of the universe. Also a LOT of Booksales, Audiobooks and Videogames (rights to use the IP). The Series if done good will put the universe infront of alot of new potential costumers.
Sven, you overlooked the Henry Cavill effect 😂The stock coincidentally exploded when the most desirable man alive made Warhammer acceptable not just for the physically neerdy types.
Hey Sven, have you checked the margins? They're on the level of companies like LMVH. Their moat is huge (Main danger are copies done with 3d printers, but regular users tend to frown upon copies). Their releases sell literally in minutes, aaand its posible for TV shows of the IP that could propel It even more
Sven, thank you for your video. Would you take a look at LSE:AAF? The stock looks cheap trading at about 4x projected operating earning with plenty of growth from mobile money and telecommunication operations in Africa.
Cryptocurrency is volatile. Diversifying your portfolio is a sensible strategy. For example, I have deposits on Binance where I engage in trading, also staking on Kraken, investing in companies like Cannafarm Ltd, and I also participate in liquidity pools
This is why understanding the business and consumer behavior is far more important than DCF spreadsheets.... A valuation of a business shouldnt take more than 30 seconds if you understand the business.
This certainly sounds good too, but I think its still worth considering more reliable options like traditional businesses such as cannafarm ltd, for example.
4:30 Don't remember if you have mentioned before, don't but...how much capital should be invested/allocated on each company? How to split the pie...for example, you mentioned you friend have 10 business and allocated 10% of their capital to this one...why no 15%? or 20% or 5%? How. If I have 100,000 and I found 2 business, which criteria/logic to use to know how much should I allocated. If I have a lump sum and/or monthly additions...which criteria to use? Can you explain it using as example the RUclips portfolio? Thanks.
I personally don't invest more than 10% of my portfolio in a single stock because it means too much exposure/risk if something unexpected happens with that company. Statistically if you hold for the long haul investing all at once is better than lump sum. Lump sum is good if you think that the stock price will go down in the future.
The actor Henry Cavill has just struck a deal with Amazon Prime to make a Warhammer 40,000 tv series. If it does well, it could be huge for the company. As it is, they have branched out into PC and console gaming with their products. I'm certainly not buying at these prices, but there is potential for growth and expansion with GW. They aren't just a one trick pony.
Looks interesting how the company that has been plateauing 2003~2016 to make this outstanding growth in 2017~2022. Looks like they did some acquisitions and intangible assets investment, but not really sure what their big shot was. There isn't much debt and much shareprinting so more of a mystery.
Have you ever looked into the Norwegian salmon producers (GSF, LSG, MOWI...). Dividends, relatively stable margins albeit cyclical, some debt, low PE; the government floated a 40% tax last year that the market loved, but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere. On LSG for instance, it has a $2.3b market cap and a PE below 8. Business is cyclical with median ROIC of 11% over the past decade. Gross margins are stable in the 40-50% range, and profit margins are in the 8.5-11%, depending on where we are in the cycle. They issued some shares in 2016-17 to fund an acquisition but there hasn't been further dilution ever since. Revenues have grown at an 11% CAGR over the past decade, particularly fast over the last 2 years. If I ignore the recent revenue surge and start a valuation from the 20b revenue as of FY20 (all in local currency): 5% rev growth, 9% margin, 12 terminal PE => 34.5 7% rev growth, 11% margin, 15 terminal PE => 57.8 Stock is now trading around 40. The picture is similar for the other examples, Mowi being the largest at $8b market cap.
Gov. Salmon tax is to go ahead! The salmon business will expand to Asia and the Middle East, meaning that the past control over Salmon production (Norway, Chile, UK) will start to decrease, Therefore, Supply is expected to increase in a more "free" way... price may decrease... profits will drop. That is my read. In the past as you refer, was an amazing business, but for the future, risk and uncertainty are for sure higher.
@@thomaskismul8541 onshore is a risky investment, you are correct. However, Fjord licences reached a limit in Norway, therefore, I would expect a slower growth of the industry (at least in Norway), as they have 2 options, offshore (higher operational costs) or landbased (as we agree; risky still). There is a certain uncertainty in the business right now!! And then you need to add new players (middle east and Asia) and the consequences of Supply:demand dynamics.
@@ruialex7745 Thank you for the comments. I just ran into the sector and it is not the kind of topic that is covered extensively on the usual investing sites. I'll look some more into the trends you mention.
Hi Sven, Games Workshop created 2 distinct universes, each with its own history where the miniature battles would take place: Fantasy (Middle age inspired) and 40k (futuristic). 2 sets of miniatures, different game rules, different lores. In 2016 they killed the Fantasy game and licensed the rights to Totalwar which made a massively succesfull videogame out of it. They are still living off the royalties I guess. But beware you are buying videogames royalties. I don't have data, but I would bet the 40k miniature business is declining.
This "analysis" is way too superficial. It's a shame because it's an interesting stock that pretty much went nowhere for more than 15(!) years then blew up all of a sudden and would have made for an interesting in-depth, proper analysis. The takeaway message from this video is: look for companies that are improving their margins and have strong pricing power. Other than that, nothing's been said about the business model, the IP, the history of the company, the management, etc. Arguments against having invested (and investing) in the stock: bad management that whores out the IP to third party developers who then make bad games, lawsuit-happy corporate culture that will crucify fans if they think that their IP might be infringed upon (think Nintendo) and a good chunk of their business model being very susceptible to pirating (downloading books and video games, 3D printing of miniatures, etc.). Check the comments from other users for even more reasons. Congrats to those who made money, though. Better book those profits, I say...
I dont know, dudes. I think crypto and all these ICOs are just a bubble. Well, crypto is good for transfers and so on, but I dont engage in trading and staking either. Its too risky. My friend recently lost $5000 there. I invest crypto in real business
You never reply to my question. Is there any way to revive a business which is declining Using strategy. And hiw can we guarantee the success of that business.
warren buffet said better to spend your energy changing ships than trying to patch the up a sinking one. from an investors perspective, if a business has gone toxic either due to mismanagement or economic landscape changing like blockbuster. better off selling and buying their future competitor aka netflix. but as we also saw with apple nearly going bankrupt to turning into the biggest company in the world. Turnarounds can happen with visionary leadership and resources.
I honestly dont understand why youre discussing these dubious schemes. There are plenty of options like Cannafarm Ltd and similar ones that are fast and profitable.
There are many miniature gaming companies but none come even close to GW reach, availability and sheer variety of their catalog
They don't simply sell miniatures but have a large catalog of popular fiction and graphic novels, they earn additional income from video games licenses and roleplaying game licenses
Their release schedule is nothing short of incredible as they push plastic crack on people with too much money (spoken as a miniature gamer myself)
also an amazon prime show with henry kevil coming up
In this age of multiple streaming services etc companies with IP like games workshop have amazing potential. Pitched it to my wife for one of our investments in late 2020
I am a gamer going back to the 1980s. Now I and most my friends are 3d printing so don't buy much or anything from GW. There is a large and growing market of figure choices to compete with GW. Also GW is expensive items and with most buyers being young people with less money it can stunt company growth.
Yeah I remember playing D&D too. I would love to own a piece of this cult company. I would have thought that it had a moat as it’s just too strange for anyone else. Until I read your comment. But aren’t all the 3d printing stuff just amateur work?
Likewise, I've been a TT wargame and RPGer since the late seventies. GW amazes me, as their rules are shite, and their products are exorbitantly overpriced. I think their IP is well established though, and I can't see them folding anytime soon. The meteoric growth might be over though.
Lord Inquisitor Sven Carlin, doing his part to unearth and combat heresy in the Footsie Region of the Imperium of Man.
More revenue for the revenue god. Margin for the Margin Throne !
Thanks Sven. Honest question - have you ever owned a stock that 10x and held it all the way through? I doubt it because you sell so quickly. Once the stock 2x, you are happy to exit because the "risk reward isn't there anymore". I was shocked at how quick you exited a bunch of multi-baggers some I still own. I am sure you will do well and I am very entertained by your videos. You have the ability to find 10x stocks but you don't have the discipline to hold it through thick and thin. If you bought Games Workshop, you would have sold once it hit 3x and missed the 10x. The mistake is not in finding the stock. You can do it. The mistake is selling too soon.
He said he exited the market a while ago. So I don’t understand what the point of all of this is.
This is funny. There are people saying like you that Sven sells too soon and other people that says that Sven is too much timing the market and the profits cone from good timing at selling. I've been subscriber for more than four years and I think, honestly, Sven sells when he sees the risk is high and buys when the risk is low. After he sells, the stock can rise, then comments like yours or the stock can fall, then the other comments pop... Speculators have always the right answer 😂
@@droghtak Another "genius comment" from a sven-atic. I was talking about buying and holding businesses REGARDLESS of the what the price does and based on fundamentals - not speculating. Sven does not have that discipline. Buffet still owns AAPL, Sven sold that after a 30% gain despite improving fundamentals. You've been a subscriber for "4 years" yet you don't seem to be aware that even Sven admits that one of his biggest mistakes is selling stocks too soon - i.e. Apple, oil stocks, Canadian stocks, etc. But what's really funny is that you had 4 years of inability to read other people's comments properly. No worries, your next 4 years will be better.
I might have mentioned GAW on a comment in one of your videos. I bought in 2018 and on a subsequent dip (since sold around the 11k mark). I was a fan of their products as a teenager so aware of their products. Pretty strong business, but I look for better opportunities now.
Hello Sven, would you be so kind and evaluate one video with CVS. They've made some aquisitions. Strong cash flow and stock really drop recently. What is your impression?
Thank you for sharing your insights and recommendations. Its great to explore various investment options, especially well-known companies like Cannafarm Ltd that are gaining popularity. Adding different ventures to our portfolio can help reduce risks in
The models are not were the value of the company is, it is the IP. Aamazon produces a series with henry chavill who is a big big fan of the universe. Also a LOT of Booksales, Audiobooks and Videogames (rights to use the IP). The Series if done good will put the universe infront of alot of new potential costumers.
* a lot
Amazon is doing Warhammer 40k show starring Henry Cavill (who is leaving his roles as Superman and the Witcher). Seems like a big deal.
Thank you for your research. I find your videos are well done. RIght now Im keeping an eye on Cannafarm ltd
Sven, you overlooked the Henry Cavill effect 😂The stock coincidentally exploded when the most desirable man alive made Warhammer acceptable not just for the physically neerdy types.
It exploded during c19 because it's a do at home hobby
Could you so Legal and General or WBA
Been playing the game since the mid 90’s. I was going to buy in around £5.50, never got around to it. Could absolutely kick myself. 😭
You could buy it today?
@@extramild1 with how GW are running the company atm, and the rise of 3D printing, the only way it’s going is South.
@@paulfarr7Not many people 3D print 2000 points worth of an army mate. Leviathon box sales is insane btw.
Didn't even know this company existed
The Emperor of Mankind bless you for this Video !
Hey Sven, have you checked the margins? They're on the level of companies like LMVH. Their moat is huge (Main danger are copies done with 3d printers, but regular users tend to frown upon copies). Their releases sell literally in minutes, aaand its posible for TV shows of the IP that could propel It even more
Sven, thank you for your video. Would you take a look at LSE:AAF? The stock looks cheap trading at about 4x projected operating earning with plenty of growth from mobile money and telecommunication operations in Africa.
Cool video! Id like to add that there are other investment options in businesses like cannafarm ltd as well.
Sempre ben druze Sven,El prox 10× sarà digital bros.grazie per il servizio
Interesting review
Nice video. More cases please :)
Have a look at Supreme plc: small cap, PE ~10, ~ double digit FCF yield, owner operated, no debt and growing double digit
Cryptocurrency is volatile. Diversifying your portfolio is a sensible strategy. For example, I have deposits on Binance where I engage in trading, also staking on Kraken, investing in companies like Cannafarm Ltd, and I also participate in liquidity pools
This is why understanding the business and consumer behavior is far more important than DCF spreadsheets.... A valuation of a business shouldnt take more than 30 seconds if you understand the business.
My son played with these between around 2010-15. Very expensive plastic ! He put me off investing a couple of years ago because of 3D printing .
This certainly sounds good too, but I think its still worth considering more reliable options like traditional businesses such as cannafarm ltd, for example.
4:30 Don't remember if you have mentioned before, don't but...how much capital should be invested/allocated on each company? How to split the pie...for example, you mentioned you friend have 10 business and allocated 10% of their capital to this one...why no 15%? or 20% or 5%? How. If I have 100,000 and I found 2 business, which criteria/logic to use to know how much should I allocated.
If I have a lump sum and/or monthly additions...which criteria to use? Can you explain it using as example the RUclips portfolio? Thanks.
I personally don't invest more than 10% of my portfolio in a single stock because it means too much exposure/risk if something unexpected happens with that company. Statistically if you hold for the long haul investing all at once is better than lump sum. Lump sum is good if you think that the stock price will go down in the future.
Hi Sven, considering deglobalization and nearshore supply chain hype now. Can you look at Mexican businesses listed in US in Research Platform again?
The actor Henry Cavill has just struck a deal with Amazon Prime to make a Warhammer 40,000 tv series. If it does well, it could be huge for the company. As it is, they have branched out into PC and console gaming with their products. I'm certainly not buying at these prices, but there is potential for growth and expansion with GW. They aren't just a one trick pony.
i wonder if this is a covid stock. During stay at home time what better hobby to explore than mini figure painting.
wowww 10x in about 7 years it's a lot.
Welcome to FTSE250. You’re close to Plus500. You missed a 10x and you’re close to missing another 10x.
Looks interesting how the company that has been plateauing 2003~2016 to make this outstanding growth in 2017~2022. Looks like they did some acquisitions and intangible assets investment, but not really sure what their big shot was. There isn't much debt and much shareprinting so more of a mystery.
I wanted to see your hair, mainly the fringe.
I think they branched out into video games or licensing for video games. It’s not all figurines I think
Have you ever looked into the Norwegian salmon producers (GSF, LSG, MOWI...).
Dividends, relatively stable margins albeit cyclical, some debt, low PE; the government floated a 40% tax last year that the market loved, but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
On LSG for instance, it has a $2.3b market cap and a PE below 8.
Business is cyclical with median ROIC of 11% over the past decade.
Gross margins are stable in the 40-50% range, and profit margins are in the 8.5-11%, depending on where we are in the cycle.
They issued some shares in 2016-17 to fund an acquisition but there hasn't been further dilution ever since.
Revenues have grown at an 11% CAGR over the past decade, particularly fast over the last 2 years.
If I ignore the recent revenue surge and start a valuation from the 20b revenue as of FY20 (all in local currency):
5% rev growth, 9% margin, 12 terminal PE => 34.5
7% rev growth, 11% margin, 15 terminal PE => 57.8
Stock is now trading around 40. The picture is similar for the other examples, Mowi being the largest at $8b market cap.
Gov. Salmon tax is to go ahead! The salmon business will expand to Asia and the Middle East, meaning that the past control over Salmon production (Norway, Chile, UK) will start to decrease, Therefore, Supply is expected to increase in a more "free" way... price may decrease... profits will drop. That is my read. In the past as you refer, was an amazing business, but for the future, risk and uncertainty are for sure higher.
@@ruialex7745i guess you are refering to on-shore farming which is yet to be profitable
Definitely an event and opportunity!
@@thomaskismul8541 onshore is a risky investment, you are correct. However, Fjord licences reached a limit in Norway, therefore, I would expect a slower growth of the industry (at least in Norway), as they have 2 options, offshore (higher operational costs) or landbased (as we agree; risky still). There is a certain uncertainty in the business right now!! And then you need to add new players (middle east and Asia) and the consequences of Supply:demand dynamics.
@@ruialex7745 Thank you for the comments. I just ran into the sector and it is not the kind of topic that is covered extensively on the usual investing sites.
I'll look some more into the trends you mention.
Hi Sven,
Games Workshop created 2 distinct universes, each with its own history where the miniature battles would take place: Fantasy (Middle age inspired) and 40k (futuristic). 2 sets of miniatures, different game rules, different lores.
In 2016 they killed the Fantasy game and licensed the rights to Totalwar which made a massively succesfull videogame out of it. They are still living off the royalties I guess. But beware you are buying videogames royalties.
I don't have data, but I would bet the 40k miniature business is declining.
Technical analysis - Looks like it's almost ready to short.
🗽War Games are in fashion... first the kids learn how to virtually fight and then they practice --- check France.
It's a typical sin stock.
.
That could have been easily 10x down. Doesn’t look like your stile.
The next 10x is ACMR, you should take a look at it Sven!
This "analysis" is way too superficial. It's a shame because it's an interesting stock that pretty much went nowhere for more than 15(!) years then blew up all of a sudden and would have made for an interesting in-depth, proper analysis.
The takeaway message from this video is: look for companies that are improving their margins and have strong pricing power. Other than that, nothing's been said about the business model, the IP, the history of the company, the management, etc.
Arguments against having invested (and investing) in the stock: bad management that whores out the IP to third party developers who then make bad games, lawsuit-happy corporate culture that will crucify fans if they think that their IP might be infringed upon (think Nintendo) and a good chunk of their business model being very susceptible to pirating (downloading books and video games, 3D printing of miniatures, etc.). Check the comments from other users for even more reasons. Congrats to those who made money, though. Better book those profits, I say...
I dont know, dudes. I think crypto and all these ICOs are just a bubble. Well, crypto is good for transfers and so on, but I dont engage in trading and staking either. Its too risky. My friend recently lost $5000 there. I invest crypto in real business
You never reply to my question. Is there any way to revive a business which is declining Using strategy. And hiw can we guarantee the success of that business.
warren buffet said better to spend your energy changing ships than trying to patch the up a sinking one.
from an investors perspective, if a business has gone toxic either due to mismanagement or economic landscape changing like blockbuster.
better off selling and buying their future competitor aka netflix.
but as we also saw with apple nearly going bankrupt to turning into the biggest company in the world. Turnarounds can happen with visionary leadership and resources.
Gotta be the annoying "first"
+1 for you :)
I randomly saw you videos (because i was a GW investor, made my double) how about you "invest" some money in hair transplants.
:-)
I honestly dont understand why youre discussing these dubious schemes. There are plenty of options like Cannafarm Ltd and similar ones that are fast and profitable.
Thx for the info. Its very useful. Last time, I also came across cannafarm ltd, and financially, it has been very helpful for me. So thank you again!
Bought into this back in 2021. Has done well for me, not as well as $WSM where I'm up almost 200%.
Well they've just announced their pre tax profits for this year will be no less than £200m up 17% yoy.
I want to say thank you to the guy in the comments who recommended cannafarm ltd to me. Youve been very helpful. Thank you!