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Just looked this up because wasn’t sure, so good question. If I was to close a trade at a profit because I don’t have access to that money, it’s still in your account, all I’m doing is executing trades that your account is copying, it means that capital gains incurred from copying my trades are yours to pay. I can show you how to get all your tax info off eToro in a few clicks if that helps? I also close trade very rarely and when I do it’s usually to close losers and add to winners. Which would mean no capital gains realised. “Kill the weeds and water the flowers” Peter lynch. The only time I close is when the share price has outperformed its earnings growth in a short time frame, like Coinbase. So it’s not something you will need to worry much about with my portfolio

@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite I will look into it. I mostly use T212, I only have €100 in etoro or something. I was just curious as this was putting me off, an "over active" popular investor could not just create a tax burden. But also make the taxes harder to calculate, already a nightmare when the tax system is first in first out for capital gains.

Cheap prices but they make 35% margin? While JD makes 10% margin. The CCP doesn’t like cheap prices??

@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite you’re also right so I got small position lol thanks

Interesting, I thought the channel was overly China based recently, but I see your point. I do have videos on the British stocks Games Workshop, BATS and Greggs and the German stock Volkswagen. But these vids didn't seem to find a big audience, might be time to test these again as they are all still in my portfolio and the channel has grown a lot

@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite My impression is more of RUclips in general, not only your channel, but I agree there is decent amount focus on some big name Chinese tech companies like Alibaba. Volkswagen does look like it is going to have a perhaps bumpy story the next few years.

Thanks for your videos, great watch. We both were too early in BABA and WBD :P

Woah I had to check and you are right, 6 years! Thanks so much this is the best comment I could get

Thanks so much!

Except for the fact its still growing and they have developed driverless delivery before the US...

If you have Netflix right now, you are paying for Harry Potter every month

@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite how much?

So to point 1) What is your evidence of China Macro looking bad? Profits nation wide are growing, its only the share prices that have been effected. This is closer to the west in 2008 than it is to Japan today. 2) I agree with you on Temu, impressive growth and PDD is certainly something to look out for. I will consider diversifying potentially 50% Temu and BABA. 3) As said in this video, China legislation was still a risk before the pandemic when the shares were skyrocketing. Since the Russia-Ukraine war however, I see the risk of China doing anything drastic as lower, due to the clear evidence that the west will be swift in sanctions and retaliation. Also Russia in terms or western dependance do not compare to China. If Russia and China were shops, China would be Costco and Russia would be that friend you know selling jewellery online. Bonus point) The big risks are rarely ever the ones we see coming, if something hurts China now I bet you it will be something that's not on this list. And the same goes double or triple for USA stocks - since they are priced as though there is no risk to them, PE's of 30 and 60 imply only growth is possible. We should price a discount on ALL stocks because of future uncertainty. But what will happen is WHEN the S&P500 drops 50% at some point? Well then people will start to again point out all the issues and uncertainty the US has also, for example the potentially impending crash of commercial real estate in USA could be a huge problem. The way to compensate for China risk is to simply diversify, this takes a 100% to a 10% loss (provided its only 10% of your portfolio). We talk about all this but my main retirement fund is the S&P500. I just enjoy actively managing also, but I don't depend on this. I should repeat here this vid, and all my vids, are not investment advice. BTW really enjoy this mini-debate, I almost prefer people trying to tear my views apart than simply agreeing with me. I'm sure I wont have changed your views, but your points are all things I have thought about a lot and wanted to give my take on here. We should be skeptical when investing, but up to a point. Eventually we need to be cheerleaders for the things we hold because holding through tornados of poop is where the real money is to be made.

Spot on 5030…and I’m an Alibaba investor..

'Cheap for a reason' also implies 'expensive for a reason'. By this logic, buy Nvidia. It is also the point of this video that most of my portfolio is filled with stocks that are 'cheap for a reason' however all those 'reasons' were there when the stock was expensive, some were actually bigger threats in the past and have become less likely, like Taiwan. I think for BABA the only reason it is cheap is it just had some bad quarterly earnings, but they were bad not unprofitable, and its still growing fast and if things go well investing in being a world class driverless dispatcher, they will grow even faster yet

You are right about the Taiwan risk, but it's not a 'value trap' in that there were times we were closer to a sanction war over Taiwan and yet the share prices were at much higher multiples. If China reeeeaaaaaally want Taiwan, they could take it right now, the issue is they like foreign investment too much. The issue with Russia is Russian's as a whole dont seem to really care about being developed nation and foreign investment or being part of the world as a whole. China do. Russia wants land, China wants money and power.

disagree :)

Welcome aboard!!

Yeah I asked them that and the person said I’d get another $1k

Congrats. Can I ask what made you invest so early?

Checked it out in latest video

You are right. I'm not sure looking into it I'm not sure how I got the the 4 billion figure. I did a lot of updates to the spread sheet while making this video, my best guess is from Q2 2022 to Q2 2024 where we owed $26,129,586,028 compared to $21,088,738,839 but that's 5 billion, so not sure. I remember in the middle of filming, checking and updating the 23.8b and 21 figure against the more accurate spreadsheet numbers, very stupid I didn't then update the 4b figure. Anyway, good time to re-say that my videos are not advice, just me sharing my DD. In this video my only advice is index funds as always. Thanks for spotting an very obvious, very dumb error.

Noted on Gladiator, so weird I swear they literally had a photo of gladiator on the investor relations page a while back, but like Dune maybe they just had distribution rights. Point 2, how are you factoring in the strikes? Because its a fair point networks are declining, but surely we should have anticipated some pull back this year? This is why I set my benchmark at 7% reduction in my last video before the earnings release. If its 50-50, then its 3% network decline 3% not producing a single piece of content for a whole quarter. I'm just interested where other people had their expectations for this quarter, did they expect the actors strike not to hurt the earnings? Because I expected growth to suck given last years emphasis on paying down debt.

@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite I believe cable assets are being re-rated lower by the market for certain reasons. 1) The carriage dispute on top of the strikes. Ex. The DIS/CHTR blackout 2). Why pay a premium for cable when premium shows are being released DTC? 3). Big Tech is overpaying and attaining sports rights which is really the only "edge" of cable for many customers. 4). The inability for legacy media to merge or be bought out because of anti trust . Cable assets are essentially stranded assets that are only worth their NPV of their cash flow minus liabilities. HBO/Max domestic growth is lackluster - even with their numbers including HBO cable losses. It's not actually profitable because they include HBO cable in their stream results to make it appear "cash flow +". At WBD's current valuation, the risk/reward might be there. I believe Zas should simply continue to buy back debt at a discount, but I recognize why it may be a "value trap" why equity holders could get wiped (inability to pay back debt faster than revenue decline). Both Zas and Malone agree they overpaid after the fact. However, what you said about amortization/write down of goodwill is not totally true. Yes, they will get net loss carryforwards to reduce their tax expense. However, they wrote down/forced to write down the assets because cable assets are simply worth less than before. Look at the paramount deal; the company has a "book value" of like $30 and it's going to be sold for some dilutive deal which market puts it at $11 meaning the goodwill/assets are not actually worth what they say on the balance sheet - much like WBD.

Yeah… I think hes holding a bag and really needs this stock to turn ASAP. I think just waiting a couple years to see if they finish off paying at least another $60 in debt is the safer bet. In the meantime, stock could fall by half.

@@ianalbertodiaz1563 Maybe safe. But if there will be another twist in the company"s structure what would impact the share (like the merger was), then you can hope for an outcome what would be good for retail investors too.

I'm diversified, this is 6.72% or my eToro portfolio. I'm making vids on this one because videos on my other positions like Crocs don't make nearly as many views. Big picture I think its a bigger issue that people drop stocks too quickly than hold them too long. I'd rather be someone who occasionally holds too long then lets go too quickly. That said, I really think a 6% revenue drop is indicative of nothing. People have gotten used to even mid range stocks getting revenue increases every year due to falling rates. For most companies most years the road is bumpy. What I also found doing this 10 years is whenever I'm buying something thats down, people say I'm a bag holder or in a value trap. They want to believe that because they exited the position at the bottom. When the stock goes up 100 people come out and say it was obvious, but I never see those people at the bottom.

@@ianalbertodiaz1563 It can only go so low before it becomes an acquisition target. Do you really think this will be a 9BN market cap company?

Welcome aboard!

Yeah my bad, first time talking about it on the Channel and was bit insecure about asking for support and over explained. Time stamps and yellow outline were there to help people skip

@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite very fair and I realize that you're just trying to stay honest :D thank you for acknowledging!

I think bankruptcy is extremely unlikely. Have you seen the debt schedule?

@@aightm8 I wrote increasing chance… whether it goes from 0.5% to 1% or 10% to 11% (who knows?)… most of their debt is fixed rate due years from now, so I’m not arguing a high chance of bankruptcy Best case, they’ll need to refinance their debt at higher rates as their debt comes due

Either way, their linear networks is in terminal decline and that is the cash flow generator for the business. I’m not seeing which other business segments can generate enough cash flow to pay the interest/debt payments

How is the chance of bankruptcy high if the interest payments are so easily covered by free cash flow? 500m in interest payments and 1b in FCF after paying interest? Genuine question. It was the actors strike not writers strike. The logic here was paying down 3b (approximated figure) in debt will have a higher return than a subsequent dip in future earnings. Anyone holding through the strike should surely have been anticipating an earnings dip at this point? If haulting productions doesn’t cause earning dips, then making/completing them doesn’t increase profits. The question is did the 3b in debt we paid off benefit us more than the loss of 500m in FCF this quarter. These are the questions we need to answer

@@moneytalksbyhjgwhite I don't see the company have any issue paying the interest but I'm wondering what happens when a tranche of debt comes due? For example, $14.78B is due within 5 years. As some of this debt comes due and the company needs to pay the principal, the company has two choices: refinance or pay off. WBD's biggest cash generator is their linear networks segment, which is essentially declining 7-10% on an annual basis... If the company is going to refinance instead of pay off, I would be concerned with the interest rate because when their $50B+ in gross debt was initially financed, fed funds rate was hovering 1% (maybe lower) and the company was projecting much stronger fundamentals than it is today.. Also, if streaming is the company's futur, they will need (not want) to invest a significant amount into content. Otherwise, I don't see how the company will attract more subscribers. The most promising segment right now is their movie studio business but that business is hit-driven. Let's assume the company absolutely knocks it out of the park and generates 5 $1B+ movies in 2025, that translates to $5B in revenue. after movie theaters take their cut, the company will be left with roughly $3B. Each blockbuster movie requires approximately $200M in production budget = $1B in costs before marketing. Marketing is typically 50% of a movies production budget. Net profit (I'm not assuming royalties and taxes) will be $3B - $1.5B (costs) = $1.5B Their linear networks segment generates roughly $8-10B in adj ebitda (not net profit), but if we assume it declined 10% a year, the company is essentially losing $800M in "ebitda" every year. I don't see how the other business segments can make up for their linear networks

Fair, it’s why I added the yellow. Tbh I was just itching to get on with the new video and get this one out so didn’t edit down as much as I should. Fair feedback

They are furious 😅

Checked this out in latest vid :)