Probability is counted incorrectly, school teaches you way too basic theory of propability. You need formula of binominal probability, which is P(X = k) = C(n,k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k), with p=0,066, n=16 and k=1 for at least one pelt. P= 0,379, meaning that there is only 38% for one pelt per each run. Had you had 106% for it, it would have been much more common and you wouldnt make this guide ;D
Actually, the probability for at least one pelt to drop is P(X >= 1) = 1 - P(X = 0), therefore there is approximately a 67% chance of at least one pelt dropping. We could even go a bit further and try to calculate how much gold we would earn per hour on average with expectancy. To do so, we can, instead of taking the whole pack of wolves, make it a bit easier and calculate how much we would earn by killing only a single wolf per run on average and add it up to 16 at the end. As shown in the video, a single wolf pelt is worth around 440 gold, and a wolf can drop only 1 wolf pelt (let's assume so because I don't know if it's true + it's easier). So, the gain would be 440 gold, the loss 0 gold (you don't lose any gold). If you were to get at least one wolf pelt in a run, you would try to actually escape, therefore taking at least 8 mins of your time. But if you fail, it means you tried to kill all the wolves and got nothing and decided to quit, which would take about 4 mins approximately (from vid). We then have all the information required to know what we can expect. First, the number of runs we would be able to do in an hour is 60 / AVERAGE_TIME_TAKEN = 9 runs per hour on average Where AVERAGE_TIME_TAKEN = 8 min * 0.67 + 4 min * (1 - 0.67) (0.67 because as shown at the beginning, the probability of getting at least one pelt is 67%). Secondly, the amount of gold we should expect in a single run if we kill a single wolf: AVERAGE_GAIN = 440 gold * 0.06667 + 0 * (1 - 0.06667) = 29 gold So, in a run, our real average gain would be 16 * AVERAGE_GAIN = 464 gold But we can make 9 runs per hour, making our average gain per hour 9 * 464 = 4176 gold Of course there is surely flaws in this reasoning and i would appreciate if someone could correct me (to know if its worth to farm these or not)
for specific wolf pelts, it would not boost but harm the probability of finding them since they are a white item. if they were blue then it would boost them
it does work in high roller but has the same drop chance according to the wiki darkanddarker.wiki.spellsandguns.com/Wolf_Pelt if the table does not show, hit the EXPAND on drop table and a table should drop down with chances in normal and high roller
wolf pelts are used for crafting gear and making gold coin bags(can hold 1000 gold per bag), but most people just sell them for gold. darkanddarker.wiki.spellsandguns.com/Wolf_Pelt here is a website that has information on the wolf pelts
Игры
Probability is counted incorrectly, school teaches you way too basic theory of propability. You need formula of binominal probability, which is P(X = k) = C(n,k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k), with p=0,066, n=16 and k=1 for at least one pelt. P= 0,379, meaning that there is only 38% for one pelt per each run. Had you had 106% for it, it would have been much more common and you wouldnt make this guide ;D
I was gonna say the same lol
Actually, the probability for at least one pelt to drop is P(X >= 1) = 1 - P(X = 0), therefore there is approximately a 67% chance of at least one pelt dropping.
We could even go a bit further and try to calculate how much gold we would earn per hour on average with expectancy. To do so, we can, instead of taking the whole pack of wolves, make it a bit easier and calculate how much we would earn by killing only a single wolf per run on average and add it up to 16 at the end.
As shown in the video, a single wolf pelt is worth around 440 gold, and a wolf can drop only 1 wolf pelt (let's assume so because I don't know if it's true + it's easier). So, the gain would be 440 gold, the loss 0 gold (you don't lose any gold).
If you were to get at least one wolf pelt in a run, you would try to actually escape, therefore taking at least 8 mins of your time. But if you fail, it means you tried to kill all the wolves and got nothing and decided to quit, which would take about 4 mins approximately (from vid).
We then have all the information required to know what we can expect.
First, the number of runs we would be able to do in an hour is 60 / AVERAGE_TIME_TAKEN = 9 runs per hour on average
Where AVERAGE_TIME_TAKEN = 8 min * 0.67 + 4 min * (1 - 0.67) (0.67 because as shown at the beginning, the probability of getting at least one pelt is 67%).
Secondly, the amount of gold we should expect in a single run if we kill a single wolf:
AVERAGE_GAIN = 440 gold * 0.06667 + 0 * (1 - 0.06667) = 29 gold
So, in a run, our real average gain would be 16 * AVERAGE_GAIN = 464 gold
But we can make 9 runs per hour, making our average gain per hour 9 * 464 = 4176 gold
Of course there is surely flaws in this reasoning and i would appreciate if someone could correct me (to know if its worth to farm these or not)
lmao i was goning to say the same
Does luck boost propability of finding wolf pelts?
for specific wolf pelts, it would not boost but harm the probability of finding them since they are a white item. if they were blue then it would boost them
a lot of effort for not much gold IMO, i just farm the bosses in goblin caves for the guaranteed gold
ty super clear
work in high roller?
it does work in high roller but has the same drop chance according to the wiki
darkanddarker.wiki.spellsandguns.com/Wolf_Pelt
if the table does not show, hit the EXPAND on drop table and a table should drop down with chances in normal and high roller
what r wolf pelts for bros
wolf pelts are used for crafting gear and making gold coin bags(can hold 1000 gold per bag), but most people just sell them for gold.
darkanddarker.wiki.spellsandguns.com/Wolf_Pelt
here is a website that has information on the wolf pelts
@@adosworld9435 top geeza x