FOLD POCKET KINGS?! $102,000 Dilemma
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- Опубликовано: 24 сен 2018
- The game is $50/$100/$200 on Live at the Bike. Gary picks up pocket kings with a $50k stack, and his 3-bet is called by a player with his own $50k stack. Sounds like a dream spot, but by the river, Gary is agonizing over a $102,000 decision. Will he make the right move?
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Subscribe for more wsop vlog, news, comedy, and hand breakdowns. Poker Hands is the show where Doug analyzes live poker hands from tv poker shows such as Poker After Dark, EPT (European Poker Tour), High Stakes Poker, the World Series of Poker (WSOP), the Aussie Millions, WPT (World Poker Tour) the Big One For One Drop, and the PCA (Pokerstars Carribean Adventure). He especially enjoys reviewing hands by popular high stakes pros like Viktor "Isildur" Blom, Fedor Holz, Dan Cates (Jungleman), Tom "Durrrr" Dwan, Phil Hellmuth, Phil Ivey, and Daniel Negreanu. 
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a very disciplined fold there, dont know if i couldve made it myself. Talking about the J4 of course
Adam Hare disciplined or horrible ? Lol
Junior Ferg you missed the joke bud
Reading comprehension Lol
Cowtymsmiesznego +1 for reading comprehension, people are fucking idiots.
I can't believe he folded KK there with that run out. Can't believe he made that mistake at those stakes. His strategy worked perfectly and yet it make him puss out when what he wanted to happened occurred.
I passionately hate the way, this hand was played. If you are going to check KK on this board, its to induce bluffs. And when you then hit pretty much the best possible runout with no draws getting there, two pair getting counterfeited, and sets getting reduced in combos, you just HAVE to call it down. If you dont have the balls to go with your plan, then just bet the flop and take it down.
He can’t bet into the pre flop aggressor. That would be a bad play. Maybe check raise. Definitely check raise. But he usually has to pay it off on the river.
Checking every street was definitely the wrong move, IMO, because there's so little information gained from that. Check the flop, see what happens, sure. But then put in a big bet on the turn and see if that changes things.
@@FocusedAndMotivated100 But KK was the last preflop aggressor, he 3-bet from the straddle.
Not Enough Golds I didn’t realize that
Yup. 100% agree. When you get the action you are looking for on every street, you can't fold on the river.
I haven't seen a bluff like that since my girl told me she was still on the pill.
Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
she going for the full house bruh
That would be funny if it weren’t true for me....
Pug Darclay best reply I’ve ever seen, stone cold nuts
Sounds more like a value play to me
why is this micro stakes player commenting on a $100k pot?
whocareslol222222 The stakes are almost irrelevant unless you’re playing above your means. The decision process is the same.
@@datsumcrzysht he is joking..referencing on the challenge Doug did.
@@datsumcrzysht people play above their means all the time especially at high limits
Lol, my mistake.
refer to savedbygrace for all future questions
For me this is just a clear cut case of ‘scared money’.
Thank you for listening to my Polker analysis.
DP
Exactly! This guy was not willing or able to drop another $30K on this hand. He does have some folds here as a percentage, but you cannot let your bankroll dictate your decision. If it does, you are playing too high of stakes. You really should have a $1.5M poker bankroll minimum to be playing at those stakes. 50/100/200 + Ante.
excellent analysis what's your estimate on Andy & Garrett's bankroll 8-10 mill
@@MAXIMATTZ Your misconception is that it matters what your bankroll is..
Scared money isn't necessarily about bankroll / net worth, it is much more of a mindset..
What's up guys, retired Polk here
MulliganGambler ahhhh and he’s back.
dug poke on ewe too
lol'd
Thank you thank you for putting the title as 102k dilemma. This avoids calling it a 102k pot and spoiling the last decision. Polker content best content!
I love Abe hes fkn awesome did u see the obvious level of tilt on his face when the 4 peeled on the turn.. hes thinking fk I knew it..
This hand in general is an interesting analysis, but this specific hand barely needs any at all because the entire result is based on Gary playing with scared money. All he was worried about was losing, he spent the entire time bank talking about how much money was involved and counting his own stack. Every player knows how much is in their stack at any time, at least within 10%. He really didn't think about what hands Andy could have except for the briefest comment about having 56. He was doing the nervous laugh people do when they are scared of losing a big stack. Andy must have seen indicators that Gary was playing scared and knew he would only get called by 77 or 99, otherwise the bluff will work every single time. I think this specific hand would be better suited to an exploitative analysis over a GTO one.
Lets see how much you think about how much money you'd lose on a call when it's for about 2/3rds of an Americans average annual salary.
I know I could never play at the highest stakes, cause even if I had the money and game to sit down at these games, I'd be like he just raised me my mortgage payments for an entire year, he just pushed all in for the price of a car, I wouldn't be able to play properly at these stakes as I would play scared.
@@24magiccarrot I'm not sure what you're trying to say in that first sentence, but whatever it is, I think you answered it yourself. Nobody should ever play in these games if they can't afford it and will play scared. It's all relative to how big your bankroll is. The average American salary has nothing to do with it. Losing a couple of buy-ins in a game like this shouldn't have any long term impact on these guys, and if it does there is no way they should be playing.
24magiccarrot if the stakes are going to dictate how you play you shouldn’t be playing
@@evzstreaming631 I agree, but almost every good poker player at some point in their life has played in a game in which the stakes were higher than they were used to and made bad decisions because they were scared.
Doug talks about how Willhasa talks players into playing at higher and higher stakes until he can bluff his opponent with impunity because they are too scared to call for an amount that would hurt them.
It's easy to say if you are scared to play at the stakes you shouldn't be playing, but for most normal people having to make a call for £30,000 is intimidating, even for people who have the bankroll to play those stakes many the first time they are calling or making bets for $1000s it does get to them.
@@24magiccarrot And again, if it gets to them/you, they/you shouldn't be playing... It's not that hard of a concept.
bad fold by J4, it could have come T, 8
It came, turn 4, and he seems to wonder, am I actually ahead right now?
J4 suited or not is trash. Should have folded preflop. Abe likes to play alot of trash. You can make money off donkeys like abe.
@@jimmybroughton2956 jim this is cash game and tom dwan plays trash card but i bet u dont wanna be same table with him
@@hihiihihihi8408 , Uncle Abe is NO Tom Dwan. Tom picks his spots. This would not be one of those spots. He also plays High Stakes, not low stakes which is a looser game. Listen to Doug Polk again, he called this a garbage hand as well. Have a great day dude.
@@jimmybroughton2956 This is a high stakes game the big blind is $100 there aren't too many games bigger than this outside of private game. You still get loose play at high stakes.
7:35 At this point jack four suited makes a "very disciplined lay down on the nine seven deuce flop." hahahha
hahahahahaha
Making these videos ... makes my life better, Thank you Doug ....(and they are so fun to watch)
I think Gary should have just anticipated the uncallable river bluff shove and simply folded KK pre-flop.
Thank you for keeping the content coming. We enjoy it!
lol I had to watch Daniel negranu ad to watch doug Polk video. Wtf is this?
Same LOL
Didnt you know, if the rake is high its actullay better
Haha, oh the irony!
I saw that commercial and it's super lame.
Cant be loosey goosey
Look at it this way. Someone paid Doug Polk money, to put a video of Daniel Negreanu, on a channel, where Doug Polk trolls Daniel Negreanu regularly.
Glad you're still making these videos for us to enjoy. Oh... and thanks for leaving in that "oops" moment.
yeah man, i was worried you was going to stop with these video's. thx man, really appreciated !!
love this stuff, thank you doug, hope this will be more than once a month thing for you...love your poker hand videos...
Would you suggest having a raising range on this turn which hands that pick up equity such as diamonds? If so, how would we balance this with value hands?
Guy: "I really can't see what he's working with here" , said mike postle never
Yo, Doug I really appreciate all of your videos and analysis. It’s really really helped my online game as of late. I’ve been able to move up limits and mistakes I used to make all the time are very limited now. Just wanna say that man. Keep doing what you do. Much respect
Thank god that you are going to keep videos. Keep it up Doug!!!
Curious on your thoughts about this Doug:
You advocate always playing theoretically and making sure to stay balanced in all spots.
This has led to you advocating against live reads and tending not to worry about them at all.
As part of playing theoretically soundly at all times, you dictate that river in this specific spot should be a mix between call and fold.
Would you ever consider this to be the spot then to look for live reads? We need to balance between call and fold anyway in some sort of random manner. Would using that "gut feeling" you get from the spot be enough of a randomizer? Or would the human element (maybe I always have the instinct that he's bluffing or I always feel like he has value) lead to gut instinct being bad since we might not actually be randomizing?
Doug, so glad you're still making poker hand videos, thanks for clearing that up! I agree with comments below, if you're going to check call to induce the bluff, you must call that river jam. I think Gary played the hand poorly.
Good to see you back on the Channel! : D
I click on a Doug Polk Poker video and an ad for DNegs poker training plays, classic! #morerakeisbetter
Hey Doug, do you think Gary should assign Andy a bit of a stronger range given that he bet flop with the guy being so short behind him? Once we get to river in Andy’s shoes our best bluffs have to be the 810 combos without diamonds.. should he be giving up some diamond combos since we want Gary to have diamonds?
The only possible reason for him folding is that he didn't check the flop for balance or to induce but rather that he thought "ugh, low board, someone can have a set".
That's the perfect runout, I can't really see a reason for folding any made hand on that river, folding flushdraws is plenty. You only need to find 4-5 combos of river bluffs to break even. And that's from a range of 40+ hand combos that are very reasonable to bet on the flop and turn. Pretty much every player who can spell "bluff" will be overbluffing that spot.
Theoretically, this simply isn't a spot where there should be very many bluffs available. The river is a brick to so many of the thin value and semi-bluff type hands in hero's range when he fires the large turn bet. A lot of those hands will have to check back this river or we're going to get caught over-bluffing.
As a result, when facing this shove we should also be considering that we will have to fold some of the made hands in our range or we're going to stack off too often against a very strong value range, even if it is a very polarizing spot. I don't think we are ever folding QQ+ with no diamond, but T9s, JJ, or QQ with a diamond are going to sweat.
Also, I think we should recognize the creativity and balls it takes to get to the river with Andy's exact hand in this spot. To me, it demonstrates he has a strong awareness and understanding of his perceived table image and how different types of players at these stakes will react in this spot.
That's the beauty of live poker for me. It's a format where a lot of useful information is available that can be overlooked by more theory. You see so many less hands and have so much less hand data on your opponents that other factors play a larger role, including a strong understanding of the psychological tendencies of players, an ability to quickly identify patterns and leaks in our opponent's play while adjusting to plug our own, and the ability to improvise exploitative lines to apply the pressure to our opponents and take them out of their comfort zone.
It's a cruel game where good play is often punished and bad play rewarded that really takes strong mental fortitude to overcome, especially when we don't have software and a computer screen to give us that little extra dose of confidence and assurance.
That more rake is better man child came up in an ad before this. ...tilted.
Lmao I got him too for a master class
I wonder if he tells people to look for the highest raked games in his masterclass.
MEET YOUR NEW POKER COACH fml
adblock and adblock plus! Why do people watch commercials???
@@CH-bp3bj In fairness youtube has changed something I can't tell you what I'm not a tech guy but some ad blockers are no longer working on youtube.
Glad to hear your still going to make the poker videos.
J-4 Hearts is the Ultimate Degen Call on the fucking Button lmao
Hey Doug, this is Monacle. Played with you a bit during the BR challenge. We had some good times. I'm working on building a brand and building a stream following. I'm really happy you are still making poker related content. Will be on the lookout for more. Thanks
Abe with the very standard call with J4 suited here
I really like the longer length video where the range is explained very in depth
WHAT'S UP DOUG,
Daniel Negreanu MasterClass 2 minute ad here -- not joking, that's what just played for this video for me! X-D
Doug, I have learned a ridiculous amount from you over the last 2 years, and I respect you tremendously, but I think you really missed the mark here with your analysis. I think black KK is a CRYSTAL clear call 100% of the time. Besides hands containing a 9 in them, which it’s hard to know how many Gary has, this is your absolute best bluff catcher. No diamond, and I even like it better than AA in a lot of ways since some of Andy’s bluffs might be A3 and A5s.
Also, from a slightly exploitative standpoint...Andy really only has like 7-9 combos here. 99, 77, and I’ll give him credit for the occasional A2s hand or maybe a weirdly played AA. That’s it. And with a ~pot sized bet, anything more than 4 bluff combos is gonna be over bluffing, which frankly, is very easy to do. If I’m in Gary’s shoes, I think Andy is WAY more likely to be over bluffing than underbluffing, and I’m snapping with black KK here for sure
Lol you brought exactly the same points as I did... love it
They're talking about him showing up with it in these spots all the time, but like you said, there is just so little value.
If you fold KK here when you put it in your check back range, then what the fuck are you calling three streets with? Andy can just print money by following through with his cbets.
Feels like game theory wise you just can't ever fold KK. Even exploitatively you'd have to be playing against someone who basically never bluffs three streets.
doug sad it he should call with some overpairs esp. without a diamond.
Zack Ryan was asking
This is “blockers” logic.
The Daniel Negranu ad running before Polk's video is something else. LOL
3:27 What's up with Abe's left and right arm size difference there?
Glad that you still makes this kind of movies. Like your comments !
Doug, thank you for all your time spent making these videos. I wanted to know if you could analyze a hand of the ''ETP Barcelona 2018 - Day 5 Highlights''. Marques vs Tang, the hand starts about 5:57. Interesting hand if you take a deep analyze and I want to have an opinion of a real pro like you.
I laughed so hard at the water spill. Great video as always Doug!
Classic
I love how you keep the bottle spill in there 😂😂
As played, I never fold this river, I would have snapped called it in my head, but taken time to sell it as a hard decision so people will try to continue bluffing thinking I was close to giving it up, it's exactly what I want to happen, the times they have a set or quads, all the power to them, I expect to be 100% profitable with KK in this spot playing it that way on that board
Someone help me out here. Look at Andy's expression as he makes the all in at 13:19. I have read some of Navarro's books and to me the looking up through the top of his head and raised eyebrows plus the rapid eye blinking strikes me as a " here I go I am gonna jump" look and not one of strength. Any thoughts Doug Polka King?
Doug we really miss your videos, no matter the topic, they're always funny. My family and I support you man!!
I just don't get it. You check-call with KK precisely in order to induce people to bluff. I don't know how Andy normally plays but I'm guessing he didn't get to this table by being passive. If you aren't going to call here with KK, then you should have just come out firing on the flop. There's just no way that a guy in Andy's spot is going to be checking behind with air on the river after betting on the flop and turn. You gotta call and if you're beat, you're beat.
people just don't randomly decide to 3 barrel no matter what comes on the turn and river. those that do are losing players. also, top level analysis 'you gotta call and if you're beat you're beat'. beats doug's analysis definitely
@@vlada_janjanin I've watched Andy a few times & someone at this table was going to 3 barrel with air its Andy... Not an easy call here but he should have called
Which kind of defeats the point of folding in that spot. If the commentator is giving away knowledge like Andy is a big time bluffer who isn't afraid of 3 barrelling then SURELY you know it's a call.
Good to have you back, Doug.
This is a call on the river, you are good here 75% of the time.
8T missed
68Missed
Diamonds missed
A3 missed
35(picked up equity on the turn for addionatal bet) missed
we sucked out on 97 for higher 2 pair
We're good here 75% of the time, bad fold.
SilverShrimp TX exactly this... how do you fold Kings here... if they flopped a set you’re just gonna lose but the way the hand went you have to call that river
Hey Doug,
I´d like to ask, which programms you use to keep track of your statistics, graphs, etc.
Recently I had big success in small buy-in tournaments and I wanna set myself the challenge to make 10k out of 100 in 2 months:)
I'm glad you're still making videos Doug! Since you're retired from poker now, I was thinking now might be a good time to rebrand the show? Perhaps, you could change the name to Polker Hands, since it kinda sounds like poker, and given that it makes sense seeing that your name is Polk.
At this point the guu with J4 suited makes a very disciplined lay down 😂
I call a reraise with KK dependent on the opponent stack, big stack is a fold.
Opponent can have as AK AA AQo AQ s medium to small stack call. cash and tourney
Keep playing dude.. what the heck man.. im gonna miss you streaming! you give me hope in my game. At least scoop or wcoop!?!?
Ok, Doug. Following a balnced strategy is correct here. But what do we do after we see this showdown? (I think he showed him the bluff). He's obviously overbluffing here, so by knowing that maybe we should look to trap more and call down lighter and maybe have more check-jam turns. What do you think about it?
Good stuff Doug keep it up and do all the talking you like (more education for us), don’t worry about the neigh sayers, appreciate the content!
i have a question, why isnt check jamming the turn the best option? cause there are so many bad rivers and your oponent is clearly firing three barrels
jeez Doug, the clip from Joey's "music video" had me f'in rolling dude..
gotta love clicking on one of dougs videos and watching an add from dnegs before it starts.
Isn't KK a slightly better call than AA since you don't block A5s?
Welcome back Polker hands!
Jeff no disrespect at all cause I'm a fan and subscriber but you really should colab with me it'd be good for your channel to colab with bigger youtubers than yourself.
Im much smaller now but Im COMING......!!!!
Ok contact me with details. ICuRaRook on twitter.
OH FUCK YEAH lol wasnt sure THAT WOULD WORK! I will come up with some ideas to pitch to you. Sweet! talk in a bit
Wow history in the making...
Funny, coincidentally I've watched two poker videos today both have Gary folding KK.
Can you go into why you would mostly bet the flop here with Kings. What other hands would you bet flop with? And if you do check, what other hands would you check it with. What are the pros and cons of each line.
I love how daniels masterclass was the ad on this video. 😂
I can just pray to god people not buying it.
This auto loaded after Ingram's and I assumed it was old, glad I watched it, great hand and thanks for the analysis!
Yo Doug, just letting you know you have the wrong description for the Video lol
Love your poker vids Doug!
Doug, I appreciate your videos always. Can you share why you have decided to take a break or stop playing poker? can you share your experience and motivation here? many thanks.
You even have to fold AA preflop if it's for too much money....
...I've been told before. But I never fold them cause I love the heart break when getting cracked.
yeah, seems like you have to fold some of your aces preflop, some call and some reise
If you have to fold AA preflop because it’s for too much money, you’re in the wrong game...
r/woosh
Exactly.
well to maintain balance you need to fold AA at least 10% of the time.
That's one of the reasons I watch your videos it's because how you analyze things in between streets and you're hilarious LOL
But, if you don't mind me asking why are you not going to be playing anymore?
Nice vids.. KEEP ON TALKIN!! PEACE BROTHA MAN
It was easily to see on flop (check/call) that he was going to drink a bluff on river. Before watching this, I thought I was terrible in poker.
.
This was a great lesson how to put yourself in inferior position beyond the point of no return, with a monster hand. Thanks for posting this, Polk. Big time.
Doug can you please cover that new live at the bike one they just released where gal calls with 43o
When watching these players squirm in tough spots, I like to pretend Doug's rambling sophisticated analysis is the voice inside their heads. Try it sometime. It can be hilarious. This is a good one. Pretend Doug is the voice inside Gary's head while you watch Gary tank on the river.
You have the wrong description for the episode. Still talking about the bankroll challenge wrap up...
Fixed. Thanks.
I appreciate your content Doug
You forgot to change the description from the previous video!
Go Andy, very nicely done. I gotta learn from that 😂🤣.
In a 3-bet pot, what are you gonna get called with on the 972rb board? TT+ and 88? A9s? I feel like a check masks your hand and lets you bet for value on turns and rivers?
Is it really necessary to use all of those time chips? I mean what have you not thought about before throwing that last one? Last 2 really...
What's up Polk, Guys Doug here!
Good video sir, thank you.
90% equity here...what would it take to call?
It's harder to be in the position with that muchc money and I've been in the situation with way less money with similar board against aces or fh so sometimes you can give it up or make the call
You do you Doug. Couldn’t blame you not wanting to play any more poker. Can only imagine how stressful lmao keep the content pumping whatever the kind!
On the turn, TT blocks bluffs, but doesn't it also block value hands that we want him to have, like T9s? Or do you think he's not firing twice with T9?
So glad to hear Polker hands is still in business.👍 I've learned a lot from watching your breakdowns. In this hand I don't think I'm ever folding black Kings here. As played, Andy has all the PP's 10's thru QQ's + all Ax of diamonds + some AK, AQ and AJ. That's a whole lot of combos we beat. I'm just never folding black KK's here. I was watching this hand live and could not believe Gary folded. Then again, Gary's very public about his cannabis consumption... maybe he was just really high.🤪😞😑
i think sometimes a conventional player would slow down with jacks and 10s, but its a good point that he might shove queens here, which kind of makes calling with kings a lot easier.
Problem is, he very rarely cold calls the 3bet pre with queens, especially when a third player behind is involved, so queens isn't really in his range
@@yeahh5829, you're probably right. But, main point I was trying to make is when Gary checks three times and Andy goes bet, bet, shove I believe he has AT LEAST as many Bluffs as value hands....I'm calling 100%. If he flopped a set or occassionally has AA... pay the man his money.
I'm personally a fan of checking most of my range out of position as the aggressor on a dry board like 972 rain, the main reasons being overpairs are usually only good for two streets of value anyways and I don't want to have to cbet all my AK and AQ on boards that favor my opponents. If someone has a counter argument I'd love to hear it.
Doug missed something here. Black KK is actually the best overpair calling hand (slightly better than black/non-diamond AA)
Of all overpairs AA is the most likely one to c/c flop and c/c down rather than cbet because it needs the least protection. Andy is aware of this and will therefore use Ax hands as a significant portion of his bluffing range (one combo of which we see in this hand obviously) because he then blocks an important part of Gary's calling range when Gary takes this line.
Due to this Gary should prefer to call river with KK over AA because it does not block Ax bluffs. Black kings don't really block any bluffs.
Great video. Thanks
I just have one question... how can I get in this game?
"I wouldn't mind a check in this spot, but a min raise would work too, also folding is a great option as well, don't forget to balance in some all-ins here, you can also elect to check raise and check fold i could argue works also."
-doug polk
All options are good / Doug Polk
Nice video! I was serious about taking the "Governor of Poker" challenge - family poker at its best, with a "deal" representing even more "Jokers" than the old Absolute Poker "deal" :) Can you play with Deuces wild, Doug :)? BTW, how about some insights into Royal Holdem?
tongmaa fr
Christopher Chou Hi! I guess I know what "fr" means :) It can be a frustrating game, but the odds still work and make it a good grinding game. I'm sure that Doug can see the bluff potential, too :)
Ad for Daniel’s “Masterclass” course on Doug’s video . Oh the irony
Keep going Doug. The content you produce is insightful and very useful. Don’t worry about the haters bro.
Hilariously ironic ad preceding Doug's video is for Negreanus Masterclass lol
For some weird reason I find the "what's up guys" intro so soothing and comfortable.
Keep up the great work 👍
7:05 Abe needs to balance his right arm vs left arm sizing
Why do we want to fold TT on turn when we checked twice heavily underrepping our hand and our opponent could easily be valuebetting stuff like A9?
LMAO THIS VIDEOS AD WAS DANIEL NEGREANUS MASTER CLASS
Guys Doug’s back already! I knew he wouldn’t leave us