These 10 day trends are definitely the best forecasting, and I like that you don't treat us like idiots but still have that weary caution because you know that some tabloid is going to try to scream 'HURRICANE!!!!".
Hi Aidan, thanks for the update. Would you be able to do a deep dive on what influences the position of the jet. It seems so pivotal to our weather. Many thanks
Excellent video as always, no dumbing down from these! Rather typical October weather really...not my favourite, I prefer it crisp, sunny and cold in October, but perhaps that's an indication of my age, when we used to have distinct seasons in the UK! Anyway, let's get through this spell and see what comes next...endlessly interesting!
Very many thanks indeed Aidan. So, it looks as though things aren’t going to be quiet, but then it wouldn’t be UK weather if they were for the majority of the time now would they! Anyway, we can cope, we always do. Thanks again Aidan and to all the Met Office. Save travelling everyone 😊
Having just flown back from a holiday in Turkey where the weather was 30 degrees & blue skies.. flying into Stansted last night was a shock 🌧️🥶 The weather this summer has been particularly under par and disappointing…even for the UK 👎🏼 Thanks for forecast information though 👍🏼
Thanks Aidan. Must be tough being the bearer of bad news weather 😆 😭 - more low pressure and wet on the way. Time is rapidly fading for the chance of a last gasp of mild sunny weather. At least we get a few days to dry off in much of Britain. A grand total of about 3. I'm going to spend as much of it outside as possible - lots of jobs to do outside the house! I'll be treating them as if it's the last chance of 15c and sun for the next 6 months!
You would be very unhappy indeed if this happened. I get the sentiment and I'm guessing you are half joking? Whilst the Westerlies do bring us low pressure and rain and cool, they also give us the British Isles in all their glory. We are still world renowned for it being a green and pleasant land. Without those Westerlies we'd be in some very deep trouble. Our winters would be extremely cold and our summers extremely dry. If you recall the 40c plus in the summer of 2022 - that only lasted a few days. Despite this, we struggled to cope with it, simply because we're used to a milder and wetter climate. Without the Westerlies, we would've seen no respite - like much of Southern Europe, we would've seen weeks of it. Weeks of temperatures over 35c in the UK would be disastrous.
@@matthewtrow5698 sorry, but I very much prefer proper cold winters and very hot summers. Easterly air stream is colder, but we get finer weather. I also love high summer temperatures, not the horrid wind and rain that we get far too frequently. Maybe I live in the wrong country?
I notice the blocking to the north s continuing to push these nasty low pressure systems over the UK. Many of the longer range modes suggest this will carry on though October. Do you agree this is likely or will we revert back to a more typical weather patten?
There’s a chance the blocking to the north will disappear when the stratospheric polar vortex strengthens, further into autumn, but it’s not guaranteed and too far ahead to say at the moment.
The most obvious destination it will hit is that it could Ireland instead of hitting the UK, since the Jet is moving towards us and the ex hurricane looks to be deterring itself from the UK
A hurricane is a specific type of cyclone which 1. Gets its energy from warm seas and 2. Has an approximately uniform temperature distribution (I.e. it doesn’t have weather fronts). So it’s not a hurricane when it moves over cooler seas and also mixes with cooler air, with weather fronts arising. No rebranding necessary, this has always been the case
Is there a reason why you never mention Ireland, everything is just coming in from “the west” never approaching Ireland or crossing Ireland. And moving into the UK
Because it’s the U.K. weather service, and they’d be treading on the toes of the Irish weather service if they started referencing Ireland and therefor the inferred likely weather for Ireland. I think The met office said as much in a reply on a previous video , but put it in slightly more oblique language than I just did!
@@GrahamRead101🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️ that’s not treading on anyone’s toes. It’s just mentioning the storm’s progress, Seems like there is no issues mentioning the countries to the south and east of the UK , when weather systems are moving up over them, and could affect the UK.
We once famously had a great storm in October 1987 that had hurricane force winds that Michael Fish famously predicted was not going to happen. I wonder how that was possible given how cold the sea is around the UK?
A very strong jet stream can spin up a deep enough low that it has winds equivalent to a category one hurricane, without it technically being a hurricane (I.e. it’s powered by the jet stream instead of tropical seas and it has a very different structure - including weather fronts, which hurricanes don’t have)
What happened last time? Oh, 1987 ... yes. Things have moved on in forecasting in the last 36 years. Not that it'll make much difference, mind, apart from being able to prepare more. We'll get the added benefit of being able to panic beforehand, rather than being told the night before that everything will be just fine 😆
@metoffice Understand the technicalities that 'The great storm of 87' wasn't a hurricane, but could you explain how it did form and what the correct technical description of that storm is, please? Thanks. 👍
@@davefloyd9443 the October 1987 storm was an extratropical cyclone that formed along a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of the Bay of Biscay, and then explosively deepened as it ran northeast across the southeast of the UK. The strongest winds were caused by a phenomenon known as a sting jet, which can occur in certain types of cyclone. Meteorologists didn't know about these in 1987, but they were conceptualised following research into this storm. It was definitely not tropical.
Not suggesting it won’t be stormy next week, just that it won’t be an actual hurricane that causes it. Same as it wasn’t a hurricane in 1987 - they can’t sustain themselves over our cool seas
![Digital Circus Episode 4 [TRAILER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/abZtsmMUbJo/mqdefault.jpg)
These 10 day trends are definitely the best forecasting, and I like that you don't treat us like idiots but still have that weary caution because you know that some tabloid is going to try to scream 'HURRICANE!!!!".
That spaghetti plot looks an awful lot like my hair in the morning!😊
*wary 😉, but I absolutely agree with you ✅️
"Ex-hurricanes and other lows" sounds like an indie album I'd probably listen too!
I personally bought the, shifted jet streams new album.
Produced by Atlantic records
Thanks Met Office, very informative & helpful. Wet and warm here in the SW
Looks like Kirk is going to track south of the UK affecting France.
Thank you Aiden. Calm and purposeful.
Sick of it all,beam me up now Scottie 😢
I know how you feel as I feel the same
Rain rain rain Nooooooo
Hi Aidan, thanks for the update. Would you be able to do a deep dive on what influences the position of the jet. It seems so pivotal to our weather. Many thanks
Good shout
Excellent video as always, no dumbing down from these! Rather typical October weather really...not my favourite, I prefer it crisp, sunny and cold in October, but perhaps that's an indication of my age, when we used to have distinct seasons in the UK! Anyway, let's get through this spell and see what comes next...endlessly interesting!
"It's a hurricane Jim, but not as we know it"
Thankyou Aidan.🍁🍁🍂🍂
Very many thanks indeed Aidan. So, it looks as though things aren’t going to be quiet, but then it wouldn’t be UK weather if they were for the majority of the time now would they! Anyway, we can cope, we always do. Thanks again Aidan and to all the Met Office.
Save travelling everyone 😊
Looks like its going to be skirt alert weather next week.
I better wear my leggings and shorts underneath my skirts and dresses. 🌬🌬🌬👗
Excellent, I learnt a lot from this.
Love the autumn, favourite season of the year, all that humidity has disappeared, darkness returns I just love it .
Not sure I should thank you for this forecast! But thank you for your work 😊
Star trekking across the universe on the starship enterprise under captain KIRK!
I knew someone would reference that song. 😂
Best forecast out there, thank you! 🎉
Thanks aiden for weather update 👍
Thank you for pronouncing hurricane properly :)
My Ex's and Low's they haunt me...🎶 Brilliant weather forecasting once again. Thank you. Xx
Having just flown back from a holiday in Turkey where the weather was 30 degrees & blue skies.. flying into Stansted last night was a shock 🌧️🥶
The weather this summer has been particularly under par and disappointing…even for the UK 👎🏼
Thanks for forecast information though 👍🏼
Thank you, Aidan
Wonder if 'Kirk' the extratrop cyclone will boldly go where others dont ??
Will enjoy the last few days of sun in Scotland while it lasts then. Thanks
Really interesting, these longer forecasts and explanations. Cheers.
Thanks for this update as it fives me an idea of possible working conditions. 🙂
Although the Summer weather has been more than disappointing, the trend is more of what we should expect through October.
Excellent information as usual, thanks
Where will Kirk go?
Where no-one has gone before, obviously...
Hopefully not a repeat from last October, that storm was bad!
Which one? It was continuous
Great job.
Aidan should have been doing this 🖖🏻 in the thumbnail 😂
Missed a trick there, sorry to disappoint!
"To discover strange New World's"
Bah! You beat me to it. :)
Atlantic lows queuing up already. I wonder if we're in for another 2013/14 winter.
Maybe?
Or like last autumn/winter? It hasn't stopped since june last year.
thank you
Cheers Aiden. :-)
Thanks Aidan
Fed up with this weather now why cant it just settle down dont want anymore rain
Where will Kirk go? Where no hurricane has boldly gone before...
Was hoping to go for a Scottish cycle tour next week. Alas storm Kirk might put that on hold...
Fascinating
Thanks Aidan. Must be tough being the bearer of bad news weather 😆
😭 - more low pressure and wet on the way. Time is rapidly fading for the chance of a last gasp of mild sunny weather.
At least we get a few days to dry off in much of Britain. A grand total of about 3.
I'm going to spend as much of it outside as possible - lots of jobs to do outside the house!
I'll be treating them as if it's the last chance of 15c and sun for the next 6 months!
thanks aidan
Glad it after my holiday
I would be so happy if we never had south westerly weather ever again. Sick of it.
Especially if you live in the South West like me 😢
You would be very unhappy indeed if this happened.
I get the sentiment and I'm guessing you are half joking?
Whilst the Westerlies do bring us low pressure and rain and cool, they also give us the British Isles in all their glory.
We are still world renowned for it being a green and pleasant land.
Without those Westerlies we'd be in some very deep trouble.
Our winters would be extremely cold and our summers extremely dry.
If you recall the 40c plus in the summer of 2022 - that only lasted a few days.
Despite this, we struggled to cope with it, simply because we're used to a milder and wetter climate.
Without the Westerlies, we would've seen no respite - like much of Southern Europe, we would've seen weeks of it.
Weeks of temperatures over 35c in the UK would be disastrous.
@@matthewtrow5698 i need to include that you’re right about the 40°c temperature rise for two days being unbearable for everyone 😂
@@matthewtrow5698 sorry, but I very much prefer proper cold winters and very hot summers. Easterly air stream is colder, but we get finer weather. I also love high summer temperatures, not the horrid wind and rain that we get far too frequently. Maybe I live in the wrong country?
My last name is Kirk. I’ve always been small powerful and i frequently move further North.
Aidan, never say never regarding our weather
We'll keep an eye on the hurricane - whilst it is a hurricane.
I notice the blocking to the north s continuing to push these nasty low pressure systems over the UK. Many of the longer range modes suggest this will carry on though October. Do you agree this is likely or will we revert back to a more typical weather patten?
There’s a chance the blocking to the north will disappear when the stratospheric polar vortex strengthens, further into autumn, but it’s not guaranteed and too far ahead to say at the moment.
Surely Kirk will go where no one has gone before...
The most obvious destination it will hit is that it could Ireland instead of hitting the UK, since the Jet is moving towards us and the ex hurricane looks to be deterring itself from the UK
Kirk will bodly go where no storm has gone before.
A high pressure building from the north is very rare isn't it?
Where no man has gone before ? 🖖
Kirk.
I need more power!
Scotty.
I'm giving you all i can Keptan.
Planning ahead working outdoors taking extra layers for emergency commuting to Scotland.
Keep the rain coming please untill after Christmas i need the money
When is a hurricane not a hurricane? When it's rebranded by science and called something else. Hey Mr Fish, don't mess it up this time buddy:)
A hurricane is a specific type of cyclone which 1. Gets its energy from warm seas and 2. Has an approximately uniform temperature distribution (I.e. it doesn’t have weather fronts). So it’s not a hurricane when it moves over cooler seas and also mixes with cooler air, with weather fronts arising. No rebranding necessary, this has always been the case
Can you explain the recent Hurricane Milton and why when it made landfall it became north heavy with what showed as very little rain to the south?
Thank you for making it clear it wont be a Hurricane when it reaches us 😂 the stories main stream newspapers come out with is baffling
What I want to know, the next two ex-hurricanes be called Spock and McCoy? Or will it be followed by ex-spitfires!
Rember Mr fish
1987 Great Storm was technically not a hurricane or even ex-hurricane. It was very powerful but it didn’t originate in the tropics.
He was in Marillion wasn’t he 😂
A lady just phoned the BBC and said there's going to be a hurricane, well don't worry, there isn't.. 😂
@@metoffice Please may i ask why storm Eunice was not considered a cyclone even though it had winds exceeding 74mph?
@@-stewie-It was not a tropical cyclone.
I don't want to be too critical of this forecast, but I'll save you the ten minutes you'll spend watching it: it's going to be wet and windy.
When is the ice age,I want to get me thermals out ?
Is there a reason why you never mention Ireland, everything is just coming in from “the west” never approaching Ireland or crossing Ireland. And moving into the UK
Because it’s the U.K. weather service, and they’d be treading on the toes of the Irish weather service if they started referencing Ireland and therefor the inferred likely weather for Ireland. I think The met office said as much in a reply on a previous video , but put it in slightly more oblique language than I just did!
@@GrahamRead101🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️ that’s not treading on anyone’s toes. It’s just mentioning the storm’s progress,
Seems like there is no issues mentioning the countries to the south and east of the UK , when weather systems are moving up over them, and could affect the UK.
never been a storm like the 87 storm.
Probably the uss enterprise
There is not a hurricane on the way... Famous words from Michael Fish .. : )
And he was right 😉… it was a powerful storm but not a hurricane
There is a 50 % chance of rain every day this week, it might rain but it might not
In other words expect to get wet and maybe blustery 😂
I wish we had a posh sounding bloke doing our forecast here in the South East US. Sounds reassuring. We could use the false sense of security. Lol
If Kirk persists, will it be a Klingon ?
❤
We once famously had a great storm in October 1987 that had hurricane force winds that Michael Fish famously predicted was not going to happen. I wonder how that was possible given how cold the sea is around the UK?
A very strong jet stream can spin up a deep enough low that it has winds equivalent to a category one hurricane, without it technically being a hurricane (I.e. it’s powered by the jet stream instead of tropical seas and it has a very different structure - including weather fronts, which hurricanes don’t have)
Anyone getting a Michael Fish vibe
My piles are fluctuating they are always a sign of impending doom from above 😬
When you are discussing the weather coming up from the West you never speak about Ireland, is it because it is a different country?
Republic of Ireland has its own weather service. Northern Ireland comes under the u..k. met.
Met Eireann's domain.
@@JasonCliftJones👍👍
The Irish have their own weather forecasters to be sure 😀
@@jeremyhares979to be sure to be sure 😂
Lol are you sure 4:55 ,you know what happened last time
What happened last time?
Oh, 1987 ... yes.
Things have moved on in forecasting in the last 36 years.
Not that it'll make much difference, mind, apart from being able to prepare more.
We'll get the added benefit of being able to panic beforehand, rather than being told the night before that everything will be just fine 😆
@@matthewtrow5698 So true ,but as you know the weather can somtimes put a front on
Last time (1987) a hurricane (I.e. a tropical cyclone) didn’t hit the UK either 🙂
@metoffice Understand the technicalities that 'The great storm of 87' wasn't a hurricane, but could you explain how it did form and what the correct technical description of that storm is, please? Thanks. 👍
@@davefloyd9443 the October 1987 storm was an extratropical cyclone that formed along a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of the Bay of Biscay, and then explosively deepened as it ran northeast across the southeast of the UK. The strongest winds were caused by a phenomenon known as a sting jet, which can occur in certain types of cyclone. Meteorologists didn't know about these in 1987, but they were conceptualised following research into this storm. It was definitely not tropical.
I’m on the west coast of Ireland hope it doesn’t it us.
Kirk. Baroclinic energy aiden?
A lady just phoned the BBC and said there's going to be a hurricane, well don't worry, there isn't.😂
(Yes I know it wasn't officially a hurricane).
Probably VSF 11
Here we go 😂😂😂😂
@@Gary0557 History repeating? 😂
Looks like we won't get to see the comet at its best then :-(
It’s weather, Jim, but not as we know it….
Is an ex hurricane like an ex parrot 😅
High pressure 😂😂😂😂
In Newcastle we’ve had know rain for two days, I’m starting to worry that climate change is real 😂😂
Same old, same old. Low, low, low, low
Hey that's my name Kirk 😁🤣 well is Kurt 😅
What’s with all the ridiculous poses in the Met Office thumbnails?
You are sounding like MICHEAL FISH here and we all know what happened to him in 1997 ,,,7 million trees later opps
1987?
Yes sorry 1987 I was out driving a Safeway lorry that night coming back from Lewis 👍👍
Not suggesting it won’t be stormy next week, just that it won’t be an actual hurricane that causes it. Same as it wasn’t a hurricane in 1987 - they can’t sustain themselves over our cool seas
@@metofficeWould I be right in saying that many of the UK’s notable storms weren’t ever of tropical origin?
🖖😂
isnt 2024 great haha
where will kirk go.........where no one hs gone before.
This hurricane is an ex-parrot 🦜🌀🌪️
Thank you.