Box Office Tracking: What It Is & Why It's Broken
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 8 сен 2024
- Box office tracking is often used as a way to set up a movie for success or failure. I break down just what it is, and why it's becoming increasingly unreliable.
Control Body Odor ANYWHERE with Mando and get $5 off of your Starter Pack (that’s over 40% off) with promo code DAN at shopmando.com! #mandopod
BOOK ME ON CAMEO: www.cameo.com/d...
JOIN ME ON PATREON: / danmurrell
FOLLOW ME ON INSTAGRAM: / murrelldan
YOU CAN GET ALL MY SHOWS ON AUDIO NOW!
APPLE: tinyurl.com/t7...
SPOTIFY: tinyurl.com/u7...
AUDIBLE: tinyurl.com/yr...
AMAZON MUSIC: tinyurl.com/9a...
STITCHER: tinyurl.com/4y...
Twisters did awesome in states that experience twisters? There was no way to predict that. SCIENCE!!! 😂
yeah, who'd have thought that people who are affected by twisters might like to see a movie about them?!
For a moment there, I thought it was this week's version of Charts with Dan 📈
Me too! Was confused how it came out in Sunday!
you are such a treasure to youtube man and this overall curator space, not only an really amazing critic with balanced, respectable taste, but also super a educated business minded dude who really knows how to critique the inner workings of this industry. appreciate you
Thanks for the kind words!
Charts Vs Dan was not on my 2024 Bingo card.
I also love how sites have started widening their predictions so as not to be incorrect. I have seen some pages say things like $40-80 million dollar opening weekend. To me, that’s not really even a prediction. That is a wide net slightly educated guess!
Educated wish
A good case study would be Bladerunner 2049, tracking said it would open at 45 million actually opened at 17 million.
Such a shame that is what it opened to. That movie definitely deserved to make more money so I'm glad Dune was a big success
Yeah, that’s one of the most LA movies I’ve ever seen
I thought it opened in the low 30 mil?
Here in Canada presales have dipped a lot and there's a lot more walk up audience purchases again, because the two main theater chains in Canada introduced a $1.50 per ticket online booking fee last year if you buy tickets online as a way to add extra revenue, that isn't there if you buy in person. Ever since that was put in place, there's been way more people buying tickets in person again
Yup. I'm Canadian and I've been doing this now too. In fact, if I want to buy tickets for what's likely to be a busy release, I often still buy in person a few days ahead of time since the theatre isn't far from my home
I'm not Canadian but I've been following the Cineplex situation from Europe cuz my main theater chain has been taking a lot of cues out of Cineplex's playbook. This sounds exactly like some bs they'd implement too 😭
I've started to get the Cineclub membership to skip the online fees for movies I'm buying in advance and cancel it before renewal the next month. So far I've saved the fee on Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and for Deadpool & Wolverine, then cancelled membership. I'll add it again probably in November-December timeframe.
If you sign up for Cineplex's Cineclub (our much shittier version of AMC A List) you don't have to pay the fee
Forget about fly-over states. Americans barely even consider Canada. It's mildly offensive that you even group Canada as domestic.
Hollywood likes to includes Canada because it's a California-popuation-sized boost to domestic numbers and we Canadians like the big blockbusters even more than Americans do.
Fellow Canadian here, utterly unoffended. You can look up the Canadian-only box office elsewhere.
@@spacechampi0n Canada is the detached mother-in-law suite to America's main house.
I still think tracking matters because we predict in every industry. But does not need to be the end all be all, that should be the final numbers we get on Monday
I lived in an apartment building attached to a youth hostel in Chicago for a few years. It was amazing how many foreigners think America is basically NYC, LA, and a bunch of farmland you flew over. They were often shocked that Chicago was a big city.
Here in Brazil box office is tracked by number of tickets sold, not total revenue
Love Hollywood calling Dallas and Houston, 2 of the most important and massive metropolitan areas as part of a “flyover” state, because you know Texas that one flyover state everyone forgets about
It's hard to think Texas is included as a fly over state. We're the hub of two major airlines and you can easily fly direct to almost anywhere, but I get his point even though it's a reach.
Nope, people absolutely think of TX as flyover... just because Texans view themselves as important doesn't mean the rest of the country agrees with you. Chicago is less flyover logisticslly and numerically than Dallas or Houson, yet it is called a flyover, too. Atlanta produces way more movies, but they are also flyover. Sorry to break it to you, but Texas is not that special.
@@mathsalot8099 yup the nations energy capitol is located in a flyover state, you sound like a completely misinformed and sheltered person
@aiwash2766 Yes, it is a flyover state. As is the bread basket of the US, without whom all the people in the cities would starve to death. I'm not saying Texas isn't important; I'm saying that the people on the coasts don't care. Sorry if you can't handle the fact that people don't care about your state as much as you would like them to. 🤷
I think the perception of a flyover state is based on tourism and Texas is on the cusp. We (I'm a Houstonian) have 4 major cities but only Austin is considered a tourist destination by people outside of the state. Our cities do not see the traffic of Las Vegas or Chicago. I don't personally think of Texas as a flyover state but I admit my bias :)
It's interesting to me how it comes down to perspective. NY and LA are certainly out of touch with "the fly-over states". However, the fly-overs are out of touch with... a lot of things as well.
I lived in Indiana for about a decade, and I liked the simple living, but that simple living comes from being (almost intentionally) out of touch.
People, regardless of their demographic (gender, racial, geographic, economic, or otherwise) just cling to that protective layer of ignorance.
I run a movie theatre in a “flyover” state. I can usually tell if a movie is going to be a big hit based on pre sales. If there are sales beyond Thursday and Friday night, it is usually going to be a pretty big movie. So I always look at Sunday-Thursday to see if there are any sales to gauge excitement levels. The most difficult movies to predict are movies that appeal to Hispanic audiences, teenage audiences, and sometimes older/senior demographics. In our market, these groups tend to have more walk up business and don’t pre buy online. This is why horror movies, which are a favorite of teens and Hispanic audiences are difficult to predict. Faith based films also can over perform wildly. These are the most difficult opening weekends for me to schedule staff for. Sound of Freedom was a HUGE example of this last year. It blew away expectations and became a top 10 all time grosser for our location. M3GAN, Smile, and Longlegs (and many other horror films) have also caught us sleeping before.
How did The Holdovers do for you? At my theater, we had it scheduled in our smallest screen with about 40 or so seats and it opened very slow with maybe 10-15 tickets sold per show. But by Sunday of its opening weekend, it began selling out completely and then did incredibly good business for the next 3-4 weeks or so.
@@maximumoccupancy Very similar for us. Word of mouth was good on that one. Of course that always happens in the small house.
I know someone's going to say "Dan, you're a critic, aren't you someone who decides if a movie is good?"
To answer that, no critics dont decide if a a movie is good. Critics make evaluations based on their own experiences watching a lot of movies and are a guidance to aid in making movie going or watching decisions. Very similar to the idea that your friend may recommend a movie to you and you're more likely to see it. Some critics have criticisms i disagree with and i take that into account. One critic doesn't like when childhood heroes are turned into grumpy burned out men. I don't have that issue with movies and those portrayals so I dont take that element into account.
Movie watching is a choice in both money and time. For anything that you weren't 1000% sure you were going to see, movie critics provide information to aid in making your decision but are not the arbiters of good and bad movies.
Exactly. I give my opinion and a recommendation, but I do not consider myself the decision maker on quality. That’s up to everyone’s individual tastes.
All I know is that I really want more films like Top Gun Maverick and Twisters in my life.
FINALLY. LOGIC. 🤟🏻
Heh heh twisters was unpredictable
I love Dan providing insight on the problems with the system but I would love to see his solution as weekly testing videos!! MOAR CONTENT!!!
Love these editorials. Topics I've never thought of that I always enjoy learning more about.
It’s funny you mentioned how you track films now based on its Thursday or Wednesday early screenings. I live in Louisiana and I honestly do the same thing. If the premiere shows are full or are busy then it will have a good opening and vice versa.
Great little video, I don't have any skin in the game nor pretend to be plugged into cinema but 'tracking' is something that I understood in the context of cinema but never bothered to really think too much about. Nice to know specifically what it is, and yeah - it seems like a pretty outdated guide, honestly not too far away from just throwing out a ballpark number based your gut feeling.
Seems to me box office tracking is more 'educated wish' than 'educated guess'.
After Infinity War made huge numbers, I thought about legs and multiplies all weekend, and realized how much I learned from your show
Dan, I trust your method to predict the box office more than anyone else. I also know if I will enjoy a movie depending on your face in the thumbnail. I love it! 😂😂😂
What worries me more is that, If their samples are not representative of the population as a whole, how does that affect their decisions about what movies will be made and their marketing budget, specifically original ones. I mean, if they conclude that a specific movie will not have the necessary traction among the movie goers just in NY and LA, is that a death sentence for that film? Or even that exact opposite, they make a movie because certain people in certain areas would like to see them and then they fail.
3:48 The Regal Warren in Moore is the theater I regularly go to. Although I didn't see Twisters there.
This is why I trust the ticket presales over Box Office tracking as it’s more accurate & so much more reliable & consistent! Since a lot of movies overperform or underperform proven by this year!
The question is: Who is paying them to do the tracking and for what purpose?
Do theaters use it to adjust the number of showings up or down? Studios use it to do some last minute advertising push?
Box office tracking always struck me as a guesstimation at best.
while Hollywood is quick to ignore and denounce 'fly over' states, black audiences or the outside world at large, they have no problem whatsoever to take their money.
5:10 I like how "pikachu-faced" is a common enough expression to be used in a video like this
Thank you Dan! I was wondering about this topic a couple days ago and here you are with a perfect video for me 😂
We're gonna need a running update on the Thursday Night ticket sales at Dan's local theatre!
These are great new videos that give insights on the industry. But you do it without making all of us feel disconnected. Other critics seem to want to be apart of Hollywood rather than criticize it. I appreciate your viewpoints
The only info I need for box office, I get from Dan. I’ll wait until Monday morning.
I mean, Moore, OK is also home to a LOT of meteorologists. The Severe Prediction Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory are there, and U Oklahoma has one of the best meteorology departments in the country.
I feel like the studios lowered their predictions when they started seeing their movies underperforming, so it wouldnt look as bad on the headlines if the movie met expectations, and could also be turned into a success story if they over performed
Great topic and video Dan. I've also noticed that a lot of showtimes for It Ends... in my area are already sold out. Interested to see it's weekend numbers. Speaking of, looking forward to tomorrow's Charts episode.
I wonder if the success of Twisters and Top Gun Maverick will prompt studios to invest more in films that take place outside of big cities. Could be interesting to see.
thanks for the vid Dan! very informative
As Dan usually says, it's hard to track enthusiasm.
For some additional background, the Moore Warren theater is essentially a large, trendy location with many theaters, that has higher than average ticket prices. It also has a good selection of premium seats, like IMAX, 4DX and dine-in food & alcohol service.
Besides being a large suburb with a decent size population, Moore is also considered by some to be the tornado epicenter of the world. In the last few decades, the last F5 and the largest EF5 both hit Moore. The latter of which notably damaged the Moore Warren theaters. (They have of course since been repaired)
This production was also not only set in Oklahoma, but was also made by many people from the local filmmaking community, shooting in surrounding areas near Moore such as Chickasha, (Crystal Springs) El Reno, (Itself) OKC, (Interior shots) and Midwest City. (Stillwater Rodeo)
One could say this provided all the ingredients for the perfect storm of success at the Moore Warren Theater.
It will be interesting to see if Reagan sees a similar boost when it finally releases, as it is also a local production. But I could also see that as not having the same ingredients this one had to really spin up this way.
Loved the video. Thanks for explaining this topic. So do you think it would be better to "fix" the tracking instead of using something else?
Brilliant video Dan! Really interesting. I went to see Twisters on Thursday and really enjoyed it, thanks for your review for guiding that movie choice!
I have a bit of a added on metric to yours. It is a very small sample size, but of a movie vibes with my 65 year old bosses, it's usually along the lines of success as your Thursday night crowd 😂
I think that after two weeks they stop tracking the numbers. Last week Bad Boys Ride or Die made 10 millions worldwide with the movie being released on digital in the US. For some reason it stopped dead, shy of two millions for reaching 400, are you telling me it didn't make the two millions needed worldwide in regions that were released maybe a week ago? Something is not right with the tracking on this movies but this is just me.
8 movies a year is considered an avid moviegoer?!
Then WTF am I!? 😅
I went 8 times in June!!
Idk about the “Thursday night” test. My Furiosa IMAX screening on Thursday opening night was almost as full as Dune 2 (same time and theater). Many of the diehard moviegoers see them Thursday or Friday. I would guess Saturday or Sunday comps would be better for judging the overall box office.
It wasn't meant to be a universal test - I'm sure they are full in many markets. I just meant that it's a way for me to judge how appealing the movie is where I live, which is in one of those "flyover state" areas, as a way to judge how appealing the movie is outside of a major market.
@@DanMurrellMoviesthanks for the reply! That makes more sense for the smaller/midsize markets.
Every time I hear the phrase "exceeds expectations" I get hit by that old anxiety that I will not do well enough on my potions exam to become an auror.
Sorry, just an "Acceptable" for you! Just as long as you don't get "Troll!" LOL
A better example of how much tracking can overestimate an opening weekend is FURIOSA.
It was tracking for $40M domestic / $85M worldwide.
Ended up with $26M domestic / $59M worldwide.
How much of a factor do presales (or the lack thereof) play in tracking prediction? It seems like this was a much bigger deal pre-Covid - it felt like there was a big push back then to get tickets for opening weekend as soon as they became available. These days, I almost always just buy my tickets once I actually get to the theater - the only exceptions are if I'm going with a group, or for special engagements. Otherwise, it's just not necessary - I can generally find an acceptable seat at any movie I want, at any theater in my market.
yeah I was surprised when deadline, T HR and everyone was saying Deadpool & wolverine was going to open less than 200 million, I was close I guessed 210.5, but my theater was full and there were tons of showtimes for it, it felt like an avengers level opening and it was
This was amazing. What a great topic.
Hey Dan. I found you video fascinating. But I often find my focus wondering and looking at all your great stuff in the back ground. I do notice when you sometimes change things around to fit the theme of the video. For not the first time I noticed a Buc-ee's beaver. And as someone who has been going to Buc-ee's since before Buc-ee's was cool I find this fascinating. So I was just wonder if you had personally gone to a Buc-ee's. And why you choose to include Buc-ee the beaver in your background.
You can still see movies for less than $14 in the midwest. That's not really a possibility in NY or LA. It amuses me that Hollywood catered to the Chinese market for the better part of 20 years, in spite of the fact that movie tickets are less than $5 there. It's almost like their pricing model in the US is set up for failure. They've gambled franchises, entire movie studios, and theater chains on people showing up en masse to see the latest blockbuster at $20+ a ticket.
Talking about It Ends With Us made me realize something. For a while the movie was dated to come out back in February this year but they switched it to August in the week following Deadpool. Could it be this was because they knew Blake Lively was gonna be in the media cycle anyways because of her involvement with Deadpool and people just generally talking about her and Ryan Reynolds as a family? Like obviously the movies appeal to very different crowds but it’s just interesting that husband and wife open movies back to back
I love going to movies every week as least 1 or 2 times a week because I enjoy watching on the Big Screen and the audio, plus in a cinema that for me is not full only small number in the morning and seating in one choses booked seat. so far 2 to three movie out of five are running in the Theatre (READINGS Cinema Porirua city, NZ). I do watch The Box Office but also other social media shows opinions do help and trailers add some energy. .
Studio people and people who cover them shocked that other people exist outside the major cities they live in. Hmm if only they started to make more movies those people would want to see…
So basically, box office tracking is like predicting the weather. Yeah it can be accurate but a lot of it is you going outside and seeing how hot or cold it actually it is
I feel like pre-COVID box office tracking 9 times out of 10 was pretty dead on. It's been interesting to see how increasingly bad/wrong it's gotten since.
Great work dan!
Boxoffice tracking you see in the media is rarely right, independent trackers are far more accurate. Watch deadline and all the other major outlets say “it ends with us” is looking to open at 20-30 million even though it’s actually tracking like a 45 million plus opener
I predicted that Dan would make this video.
It sounds like box office tracking models have overfitted to the NY/LA markets. They depend on a sample derived primarily from those markets to be representative of a movie's overall audience. But I'm no statistician, only a hobbyist, so I'm very open to being corrected here.
"It's no surprise that the entertainment industry puts Hollywood and New York as the center of the movie world."
*Checks a map of the United States*
If you're an aspiring artist, don't allow market research to confuse you, just concentrate on honing your craft and mastering the discipline of your chosen medium. Inspired authentic art will resonate. Work contrived to sell from conception is just kitschy product.
6:20 Daisy Edgar-Jones is an omen of box office overperformance I guess
Also, just out of curiosity do we have any sense of how often they get it reasonably close to right (right meaning x movie didn’t explicitly play bigger due to states they overlooked) or miss on things that they did think were gonna be big in smaller states? Like these folks are analysts for a reason are they all fucking it up more than let’s say 80% of the time. Missing on 4/5 movies? If so, then that’s a huge problem too.
Do you think Dan would be doing this video if he still lived in LA? I know he grew up in AR, but wondering if running this channel outside of LA lets him see the industry from a fresher perspective. As someone that grew up in the Midwest and now lives in the Mountain West, some movies like Twisters are no surprise that they are hits. Like, there was no doubt in my mind that Dan was correct to have that movie on his summer predictions
I think I would, but without the perspective of seeing firsthand early signs of movies like Twisters overperforming tracking numbers. I talked about bad tracking info on movies like Girls Trip and Wonder Woman when I was still at SJ.
How did they predict Crawdads going to women under 25? That book was ubiquitous among middle-aged women and that was OBVIOUSLY going to be a significant demographic.
It's the exact same issue as political polling. Commentating the latest polls is "free content" that doesn't require paying journalists to go and investigate, or analyzing political programs, or doing movie critic work like analyzing movie trends, production challenges and so on.
And we end up with garbage news on every topic, being movies, politics or anything to be honest.
Hi Dan! Have you heard of the recently released Thai movie ‘How to make millions before Grandma dies’ , it’s a really heart warming and excellent movie here in Asia that would really love to hear your thoughts about! Also as a shout out to the brilliant work of Asian cinema !
I mean the only useful info out of tracking for me as a layperson is the magnitude of the numbers. Is it a 10m, 50m or 500m kind of movie? I don't care if it's 11. 2 or 20.4, only the ballpark
I live in Texas and never considered it a part of the "fly over" states. I want to argue with you, but I'm a little offended to be included so maybe you're right. 🤣
I also live it Texas, but I didn't grow up here. Texas is absolutely considered a flyover state by everyone else, but Texans often have an overinflated view of themselves and their state. That was the biggest culture shock for me moving here. Most states aren't this egocentric. Most states don't require you to study its own history EVERY SINGLE YEAR in school (most it's once every 4 years). Just because Texans think highly of themselves doesn't mean the rest of the US agrees with you. Sorry, this came across as really aggressive! I didn't mean it to be. It's just pent-up frustration over 10 years of neighbors acting like the world revolves around them and their viewpoints/ideologies.
90% of the population lives outside of the NY and LA metro areas.
I actually view the idea of box office projections being smashed more of a good thing than it shows of a broken system. It’s like if a scientist were to make a hypothesis that didn’t come true. It forces them to think of what could happen but it might not. When a hypothesis doesn’t go their way they don’t see it as a broken system of thought process they use it to better help their experiments. Now this could be more along the lines of how these box office projectionist need to help fix their systems but I don’t find it as something that would hinder what they’re already doing. I say that because I’ve seen a lot of people say that box office tracking should just not exist and I don’t think those people know what they’re talking about.
I think box office tracking should adjust. If the wheel is broken, build a better wheel.
@@DanMurrellMovies I agree I think that box office projectionists need to take marketing into effect way more now because we are living in a much more heightened and readjusted era of marketing with more digital means but also a somewhat resurgence of traditional means with recent endeavors in the year of 2024 with some films.
"Exceeding expectations" is just one side effect of an 'inaccurate prediction'. A nice side effect but kinda ignores their inability to do the job required.
The problem occurs when the scientist ignores the conclusions and continues to use a faulty model because of tradition or outside pressure or whatever else. These studios have been tracking movies the exact same way for DECADES and not changing their formulation. A good statistician would take the data into account and adjust, but that's not what they are doing. They keep hammering away at their "tried and true" formula that is getting less and less accurate and expecting the MARKET to change rather than realizing that they need to change their prediction models.
I love watching Dan defend middle America :)
Dan, they should hire you to do box office tracking
This is fascinating Dan. I have one question - how do they determine the demographics of the people who bought the ticket/showed up at the movie? I live in the UK so don't know if the system is different in the US but for me, no one asks me my demographics when I buy a movie ticket. I guess if I buy at the theatre, they could take a guess at my ethnicity etc. but guessing my age could still be totally wrong. And if I buy online, no one is asking me anyway. So how does it work?
Grosses are reported from every theater and are trackable by region. Demographics are determined by sampling done from various regions across the country - so not every moviegoer is tracked, but enough samples are gathered to represent the overall audience.
@@DanMurrellMovies Thank you, that makes sense! Love your deep dives into these btw!
If they are calling Atlanta and Chicago, Dallas and Houston “flyover states” then indeed they are missing the point. If you’re conflating flyover states to include those places when they aren’t then this is a weird vid. And yes I get it, it’s a pejorative statement to say any place is a place to just skip. But I can see why analysts would be looking at large cities with massive populations and a large collective of theatres per capita over other places.
It sounds like the analyists don’t watch a lot of movies. I don’t know how you could watch the trailer for Where the Crawdads Sing and think it was only for under 25 women. Analyist probably just read there was a Taylor Swift song in it and made that assumption.
I’m willing to bet that ticket pre sales are the only factor they consider. I bet if they didn’t have pre sales numbers available, they couldn’t do it.
Didn’t realize Dan turn into a data analyst 😂
Yay!
Colleen Hoover books are garbage but very popular garbage. So It Ends With Us will be the new Twilight.
-shakes head- These analysts try and predict things that are inherently unpredictable. Sure you can take known quantities like presales, the number of views for the trailer on youtube, social media buzz. But there are still so many other aspects to it that they are seriously using the PIDOOMA model for predictions. (Pulled It Directly Out Of My ***)
Pikachu face. 🤣
So tracking is the political polling of the box office industry - way over covered by media in lieu of covering substance. Maybe producers should start saying, “the only tracking that matters is the opening day box office!”
For that matter, what is a box office?
Deadpool and Wolverine will rule box office again. Trap has no power and bad reviews.
"But keep in mind that the important thing is how a movie actually does."
No. The important thing is how GOOD the movie is, box office be damned. I get it, Dan, you're focused on tracking the box office, and there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. But I fear that you often let that color other aspect of movie coverage. While it's interesting to see how movies do from a business perspective, the real important thing is how good they are. A terrible movie making a billion dollars does not make it good, as most of the true classics that have stood the test of time bombed at the box office.
Did you ignore what I said directly after that statement?
Wait so you’re telling me that non-white people watch movies? And that women watch movies too??? People in TEXAS watch movies?!? What a crazy notion
I think is sick they call the center of the country "overfly", so offensive! And they definitly need to contract some mathematicians and update their predictive acuations.
So in other words predictions are racist and old. Got it.
2nd!!