Thanks for the show guys, I have some fun history references to add here in regard to the AP polling. Of the last 8 NCAA tournaments (going back to 2016) 6 of those seasons held at least 1 Final 4 team that was unranked in the preseason AP poll. 9 total out of 32 teams (meaning 28% of teams making the Final 4 or over 1/4th of those teams were completely missed by AP voters - which is somewhat staggering). Going back to 2000-2001, 10 of those 23 Final 4’s had an Unranked preseason AP team (43% of Final 4’s there was a team not ranked in the Top 25). In reference to Duke being ranked 7th you will find this jarring! Over the last 23 NCAA tournaments (since the 2000-2001 season), ONLY 1 team ranked 7th in the preseason AP poll has made the Final 4. And that was Kansas in 2002 (who lost Maryland the Championship team and Duke’s biggest rival during that time). What about teams ranked #1 in the preseason AP poll? How have they performed? Over the last 23 NCAA tournaments, only 3 preseason #1 ranked AP teams won the title. 14 of them didn’t reach the Final 4. Over half! 5 of those 14 #1 teams to not reach the Final 4 was Duke which is most by any program. Second most? Good news…. Kansas (4). Maybe Kansas will miss the Final 4 this year 😅 (UNC was 2 of those 14 teams). But Wait! 9 preseason #1 teams have made the Final 4 in the last 23 seasons (so give Kansas a 39% chance). However, the last time that has happened was 4 seasons ago (Gonzaga in 2021), and the last time before that another 4 seasons (UNC in 2016). So maybe Kansas doesn’t have a 39% chance of reaching the Final 4, maybe it’s only a 25% chance (2/8) going back the last 8 seasons. Maybe Kansas will tie Duke for having 5 teams ranked #1 in the AP poll preseason to not reach the Final 4. Or maybe the Preseason AP poll is just a crap shoot?
We should be good with a 7, people are going to focus on the teams in the top 5. So, it’ll give them a cushion if they kind of stumble out of the gate. I’d rather let them get their footing without being ripped apart on all of the shows about it. They do manage the players’ social media very well but they still see the garbage. Just let them sit in the 9-6 all year and watch the others stumble while we are getting hot for the tournaments. Hell, I rarely if ever hear people talking about the season record unless it’s 30 win or extremely bad. It’s the tournaments that get the focus. So let’s just have fun watching them prepare for March.
The AP is meaningless. Literally. But it is good content for shows. And maybe even a motivator for some programs or a target for others. The only thing that matters is what is your Kenpom efficiency. It has a massive correlation to title winners/contenders. It is what the NCAA uses in the NET for seeding (winning and efficiencies) - which is why Alabama was ranked 5th on the NET even though they were 7-5, because their offense was the best in the country (most efficient). Where the AP is an eyeball test, Kenpom is nearly as brutally truthful as one can be when assessing how well your team is doing. So if Duke is Top 3 in overall (Adjusted Efficiency) Kenpom efficiency, even if this team goes 6-2 per Kevin’ reference, it’s a great indicator we can go deep and play in April.
JJ - The preseason Kenpom rankings agree with you. They have Duke as a title favorite ranking in at #2. Houston #1 and Auburn #3 which Duke will play in Cameron. That’s a game I have circled to assess how tough we are. Bruce Pearl’s teams always embody toughness, just like Kelvin Sampson teams. I’m curious to see how accurate Preseason Kenpom Rankings are. I’ll have to follow up on this. There is an article written 2 years ago assessing Big East teams in preseason Kenpom rankings (and where they finish) since 2014 which is actually not too bad, but per usual those teams are more overrated than not. Again, I’ll do my own digging but hey, seems like Kenpom and Bart Torvik are on the same page (Houston-1, Duke-2, but Iowa ST-3 and Auburn-7).
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Thanks for the show guys, I have some fun history references to add here in regard to the AP polling.
Of the last 8 NCAA tournaments (going back to 2016) 6 of those seasons held at least 1 Final 4 team that was unranked in the preseason AP poll. 9 total out of 32 teams (meaning 28% of teams making the Final 4 or over 1/4th of those teams were completely missed by AP voters - which is somewhat staggering).
Going back to 2000-2001, 10 of those 23 Final 4’s had an Unranked preseason AP team (43% of Final 4’s there was a team not ranked in the Top 25).
In reference to Duke being ranked 7th you will find this jarring!
Over the last 23 NCAA tournaments (since the 2000-2001 season), ONLY 1 team ranked 7th in the preseason AP poll has made the Final 4. And that was Kansas in 2002 (who lost Maryland the Championship team and Duke’s biggest rival during that time).
What about teams ranked #1 in the preseason AP poll? How have they performed?
Over the last 23 NCAA tournaments, only 3 preseason #1 ranked AP teams won the title. 14 of them didn’t reach the Final 4. Over half!
5 of those 14 #1 teams to not reach the Final 4 was Duke which is most by any program.
Second most? Good news…. Kansas (4). Maybe Kansas will miss the Final 4 this year 😅 (UNC was 2 of those 14 teams).
But Wait! 9 preseason #1 teams have made the Final 4 in the last 23 seasons (so give Kansas a 39% chance).
However, the last time that has happened was 4 seasons ago (Gonzaga in 2021), and the last time before that another 4 seasons (UNC in 2016).
So maybe Kansas doesn’t have a 39% chance of reaching the Final 4, maybe it’s only a 25% chance (2/8) going back the last 8 seasons.
Maybe Kansas will tie Duke for having 5 teams ranked #1 in the AP poll preseason to not reach the Final 4.
Or maybe the Preseason AP poll is just a crap shoot?
We should be good with a 7, people are going to focus on the teams in the top 5. So, it’ll give them a cushion if they kind of stumble out of the gate. I’d rather let them get their footing without being ripped apart on all of the shows about it. They do manage the players’ social media very well but they still see the garbage. Just let them sit in the 9-6 all year and watch the others stumble while we are getting hot for the tournaments. Hell, I rarely if ever hear people talking about the season record unless it’s 30 win or extremely bad. It’s the tournaments that get the focus. So let’s just have fun watching them prepare for March.
The AP is meaningless. Literally. But it is good content for shows. And maybe even a motivator for some programs or a target for others.
The only thing that matters is what is your Kenpom efficiency. It has a massive correlation to title winners/contenders. It is what the NCAA uses in the NET for seeding (winning and efficiencies) - which is why Alabama was ranked 5th on the NET even though they were 7-5, because their offense was the best in the country (most efficient).
Where the AP is an eyeball test, Kenpom is nearly as brutally truthful as one can be when assessing how well your team is doing. So if Duke is Top 3 in overall (Adjusted Efficiency) Kenpom efficiency, even if this team goes 6-2 per Kevin’ reference, it’s a great indicator we can go deep and play in April.
@@Lets_go_Duke you couldn’t be more correct
JJ - The preseason Kenpom rankings agree with you. They have Duke as a title favorite ranking in at #2.
Houston #1 and Auburn #3 which Duke will play in Cameron. That’s a game I have circled to assess how tough we are. Bruce Pearl’s teams always embody toughness, just like Kelvin Sampson teams.
I’m curious to see how accurate Preseason Kenpom Rankings are. I’ll have to follow up on this. There is an article written 2 years ago assessing Big East teams in preseason Kenpom rankings (and where they finish) since 2014 which is actually not too bad, but per usual those teams are more overrated than not. Again, I’ll do my own digging but hey, seems like Kenpom and Bart Torvik are on the same page (Houston-1, Duke-2, but Iowa ST-3 and Auburn-7).
DUKE THE PRESEASON NATIONAL CHAMP AGAIN THIS SEASON
Don’t really matter I’m glad they ranked #7 so they keep grinding & surprise everybody. Guaranteed after Nov we will be #1